Opinion & Analysis

2022 RSM Classic: Betting Tips & Selections

Published

1 year ago

Nov 16, 2022

This was supposed to be around 600 words why Tony Finau was going to win back-to-back for the second time in five months. Sadly, with Tuesday’s withdrawal, not only has the best value in the field gone awol, but the RSM Classic reverts to its status as the bizarre end-of-season chance for a lesser name to win.

While the DP World Tour ends its season at the end of the year, Sea Island Golf Club hosts the ninth event of the ‘new’ 2022/2023, before two novelty events take us through to the new year.

Coastal but gettable, the mix of the Seaside and Plantation courses pray for the wind to make any barrier to good scoring, but despite the potential disasters, winning scores over the past five years average 20-under.

2017 winner Austin Cook said that there is a big plus for players with previous looks at the courses, while Scott Brown and Webb Simpson disagree on the new, undulating greens – the former stating that if you get on the wrong side of the green, “it’s a tough two putt“, whilst two-time runner-up, Simpson, says that with the slopes, ” you can really use those slopes to help you and get the ball in the hole.”

The same thing, but different.

With ‘Big Tone’ out, this becomes an unappealing tournament to bet on. However, with winners Chris Kirk, Kevin Kisner, Mackenzie Hughes and Talor Gooch (along with Simpson) showing a bit at various Open Championships, there is a clear link between coastal conditions around the globe.

This now becomes a much easier event for the likes of in-form Seamus Power and Brian Harman to win.

The latter has made 11 of his last 12 cuts (since July), finishing in the top-20 at the lucrative and elite Tour Championship before a run of 15th, 23rd and latterly, running-up to a rampant Russell Henley in Mexico.

The only issue I have with the local 35-year-old is the lack of an individual victory over the last five years, but with a recent Open record of 19th and then tied-sixth, his claims are there to see.

Power also has decent claims after playing the best golf of his career.

Always well regarded, it took a spell at the lower level for him to find his game, but

There were periods during ‘Lockdown’ and soon after, when he seemed unfazed by the sport, mentioning it was good living and not particularly focussed on the trophies.

That seems to have changed now, and after winning the 2021 Barbasol Championship, the Irishman has steadily climbed the rankings, his latest victory in Bermuda (significant for wind and greens) and third at the Mayakoba seeing him rise to 30th and available for all the major tournaments in 2023.

Power lost many strokes with his irons at the latter part of last season, but has clearly sorted out the issue. With no strokes-gained data available at either Mayakoba or Bermuda, the old-fashioned numbers report him ranking 9th and first for greens-in-regulation. With that quality putting on Bermuda greens a tremendous bonus, he has to go close, and further any claims he has to a place at the 2023 Ryder Cup.

Back up Power with Joel Dahmen, another in-form golfer and winner of the coastal Corales Puntacana Championship in 2021.

There was a period during Lockdown when the 35-year-old seemed more interested in being a social media personality than a competitive golfer at the highest level. That has changed, with his 10th at the U.S Open a sign of what was possible.

Fans have had to wait a while, but in five outings since the turn of October, Dahmen has made all five cuts, with two top-20 finishes improved upon with a bronze medal in Mexico and a place on the front page in last week’s Finau rout.

These finishes could have been even better. Going into Sunday, Dahmen was 11th at the Sanderson Farms – Mackenzie Hughes has won the RSM and in Mississippi – 8th at the Zozo, and 6th in Houston, all numbers that must see him go close here.

Hit fairways and greens and you’ll compete here, and over the past three months Dahmen ranks 10th for driving accuracy, 29th for greens-in-regulation, 20th for scrambling and 26th for putting average. With the hot favourite our, he is a genuine 20-1 shot.

Aaron Rai is a proven wind player. So much so, that like compatriot Tommy Fleetwood, if you back him you want it to blow, with rain another positive.

Still, he is the consummate tee-to-green player, and with every indication in last weekend’s 7th place that he is ready to match his top-10 finishes at Torrey Pines, and top-15s in Canada and at the Mayakoba.

The 27-year-old gives away distance off the tee but, in turn, has led the driving accuracy lists on four occasions this year, perfect if the gusts do arrive. Hopefully, that facet allows him the freedom to have one of his better weeks with his irons – he flits wildly between very good and awful – and then uses his excellent putting to do a job.

Top-12 in strokes-gained-putting at The Memorial, Irish Open, Sanderson Farms and last week in Houston, he can take encouragement from a 16th placed finish on debut last year, when he struck four almost-equal rounds of 66/67/68/68. He is 5/2 to repeat that finish.

We are now in the land of the fantasy – or were. Now the event has opened up, I’ll take a chance with a couple of bigger prices for top-10 and top-20 finishes.

First-season PGA Tour player Ben Griffin is just one of a host of KFT graduates that could be anything over the next few years.

The Sea Island field contains more obvious candidates in the shape of Taylor Montgomery, with three top-10s and two top 15s in just six starts as a full PGA Tour player, as well as the Davis’ – Riley and Thompson – but the 26-year-old can oust the lot after being another to open his full top-level career with a series of impressive results.

After winning on the PGA Tour Canada in 2018, the North Carolina graduate lost his way and worked as a loan officer through 2021, still securing his PGA card via a 15th place on the Korn Ferry Tour standings.

While Griffin was making his way up the table, he finished 4th at the Wyndham, courtesy of a final round 64, before three successive missed-cuts back at the lower level.

After a further weekend off at his first full PGA event, at the Fortinet, Griffin showed much more at the Country Club of Jackson, lying in 10th at halfway before finishing a respectable 24th. He continued his run through the Shriners, when just outside of the top-30 going into Sunday, before three rounds of 65/64/66 saw him lead the Bermuda Championship.

Payday was going well until the 66th hole of the tournament, when an error on the green led to a series of mistakes that caused a 6-over back-nine.

Griffin admits he had a plan, but “got a little too comfortable”, and the episode understandably contributed to his worst performance of this brief spell – in Mexico.

However, Griffin is going nowhere, and his improved 16th in Houston last week (8th at halfway) was the sign of a player confident in his ability.

Having once had his qualifier fee paid by members of his local club, Griffin knows the value of work and whilst his overall figures are nothing more than steady, his numbers for many of the first three rounds are significantly better, even if hidden.

Ignore the missed-cut here in 2018, it seems of no relevance to this week, and look at his 18 holes played at Sea Island Plantation Course in July – a 59!

https://www.instagram.com/p/CfzaB2qOn8v/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link

Trey Mullinax is far more exposed than the likes of Griffin, but this seems a great opportunity to show up again, as he did when winning the Barbasol Championship in July.

Since his latest victory, his first since 2020, the 30-year-old has finished just outside the top-20 at St. Andrews, 5th at St. Jude, 12th at the limited-field BMW and in the top five last week in Houston.

Solid in most aspects of his game, Mullinax has ranked in the top-15 for putting in ficve of his last seven outings, finding at least five strokes on the field in those, with a gain of over 10 shots last week, on the Bermuda grass of Memorial Park.

Two of his three key victories have come in 23 and 25-under the card, so we know he can go low. He is streaky but on a run, can putt on the grass he faces this week, and looks a terrific bit of value on all fronts.

Reccommended Bets:

Seamus Power Win/Top-5
Joel Dahmen Win/Top-5
Aaron Rai Win/Top-5
Aaron Rai Top-20
Ben Griffin Top-20
Trey Mullinax Win/Top-5
Trey Mullinax Top-20

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

Published

4 days ago

Apr 22, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 LIV Adelaide betting preview: Cam Smith ready for big week down under

Published

4 days ago

Apr 22, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

After having four of the top twelve players on the leaderboard at The Masters, LIV Golf is set for their fifth event of the season: LIV Adelaide.

For both LIV fans and golf fans in Australia, LIV Adelaide is one of the most anticipated events of the year. With 35,000 people expected to attend each day of the tournament, the Grange Golf Club will be crawling with fans who are passionate about the sport of golf. The 12th hole, better known as “the watering hole”, is sure to have the rowdiest of the fans cheering after a long day of drinking some Leishman Lager.

The Grange Golf Club is a par-72 that measures 6,946 yards. The course features minimal resistance, as golfers went extremely low last season. In 2023, Talor Gooch shot consecutive rounds of 62 on Thursday and Friday, giving himself a gigantic cushion heading into championship Sunday. Things got tight for a while, but in the end, the Oklahoma State product was able to hold off The Crushers’ Anirban Lahiri for a three-shot victory.

The Four Aces won the team competition with the Range Goats finishing second.

*All Images Courtesy of LIV Golf*

Past Winners at LIV Adelaide

2023: Talor Gooch (-19)

Stat Leaders Through LIV Miami

Green in Regulation

Richard Bland
Jon Rahm
Paul Casey

Fairways Hit

Abraham Ancer
Graeme McDowell
Henrik Stenson

Driving Distance

Bryson DeChambeau
Joaquin Niemann
Dean Burmester

Putting

Cameron Smith
Louis Oosthuizen
Matt Jones

2024 LIV Adelaide Picks

Cameron Smith +1400 (DraftKings)

When I pulled up the odds for LIV Adelaide, I was more than a little surprised to see multiple golfers listed ahead of Cameron Smith on the betting board. A few starts ago, Cam finished runner-up at LIV Hong Kong, which is a golf course that absolutely suits his eye. Augusta National in another course that Smith could roll out of bed and finish in the top-ten at, and he did so two weeks ago at The Masters, finishing T6.

At Augusta, he gained strokes on the field on approach, off the tee (slightly), and of course, around the green and putting. Smith able to get in the mix at a major championship despite coming into the week feeling under the weather tells me that his game is once again rounding into form.

The Grange Golf Club is another course that undoubtedly suits the Australian. Smith is obviously incredibly comfortable playing in front of the Aussie faithful and has won three Australian PGA Championship’s. The course is very short and will allow Smith to play conservative off the tee, mitigating his most glaring weakness. With birdies available all over the golf course, there’s a chance the event turns into a putting contest, and there’s no one on the planet I’d rather have in one of those than Cam Smith.

Louis Oosthuizen +2200 (DraftKings)

Louis Oosthuizen has simply been one of the best players on LIV in the 2024 seas0n. The South African has finished in the top-10 on the LIV leaderboard in three of his five starts, with his best coming in Jeddah, where he finished T2. Perhaps more impressively, Oosthuizen finished T7 at LIV Miami, which took place at Doral’s “Blue Monster”, an absolutely massive golf course. Given that Louis is on the shorter side in terms of distance off the tee, his ability to play well in Miami shows how dialed he is with the irons this season.

In addition to the LIV finishes, Oosthuizen won back-to-back starts on the DP World Tour in December at the Alfred Dunhill Championship and the Mauritus Open. He also finished runner-up at the end of February in the International Series Oman. The 41-year-old has been one of the most consistent performers of 2024, regardless of tour.

For the season, Louis ranks 4th on LIV in birdies made, T9 in fairways hit and first in putting. He ranks 32nd in driving distance, but that won’t be an issue at this short course. Last season, he finished T11 at the event, but was in decent position going into the final round but fell back after shooting 70 while the rest of the field went low. This season, Oosthuizen comes into the event in peak form, and the course should be a perfect fit for his smooth swing and hot putter this week.

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 1

Published

1 week ago

Apr 18, 2024

Terry Koehler

Of all the clubs in our bags, wedges are almost always the simplest in construction and, therefore, the easiest to analyze what might make one work differently from another if you know what to look for.

Wedges are a lot less mysterious than drivers, of course, as the major brands are working with a lot of “pixie dust” inside these modern marvels. That’s carrying over more to irons now, with so many new models featuring internal multi-material technologies, and almost all of them having a “badge” or insert in the back to allow more complex graphics while hiding the actual distribution of mass.

But when it comes to wedges, most on the market today are still single pieces of molded steel, either cast or forged into that shape. So, if you look closely at where the mass is distributed, it’s pretty clear how that wedge is going to perform.

To start, because of their wider soles, the majority of the mass of almost any wedge is along the bottom third of the clubhead. So, the best wedge shots are always those hit between the 2nd and 5th grooves so that more mass is directly behind that impact. Elite tour professionals practice incessantly to learn to do that consistently, wearing out a spot about the size of a penny right there. If impact moves higher than that, the face is dramatically thinner, so smash factor is compromised significantly, which reduces the overall distance the ball will fly.

Every one of us, tour players included, knows that maddening shot that we feel a bit high on the face and it doesn’t go anywhere, it’s not your fault.

If your wedges show a wear pattern the size of a silver dollar, and centered above the 3rd or 4th groove, you are not getting anywhere near the same performance from shot to shot. Robot testing proves impact even two to three grooves higher in the face can cause distance loss of up to 35 to 55 feet with modern ‘tour design’ wedges.

In addition, as impact moves above the center of mass, the golf club principle of gear effect causes the ball to fly higher with less spin. Think of modern drivers for a minute. The “holy grail” of driving is high launch and low spin, and the driver engineers are pulling out all stops to get the mass as low in the clubhead as possible to optimize this combination.

Where is all the mass in your wedges? Low. So, disregarding the higher lofts, wedges “want” to launch the ball high with low spin – exactly the opposite of what good wedge play requires penetrating ball flight with high spin.

While almost all major brand wedges have begun putting a tiny bit more thickness in the top portion of the clubhead, conventional and modern ‘tour design’ wedges perform pretty much like they always have. Elite players learn to hit those crisp, spinny penetrating wedge shots by spending lots of practice time learning to consistently make contact low in the face.

So, what about grooves and face texture?

Grooves on any club can only do so much, and no one has any material advantage here. The USGA tightly defines what we manufacturers can do with grooves and face texture, and modern manufacturing techniques allow all of us to push those limits ever closer. And we all do. End of story.

Then there’s the topic of bounce and grinds, the most complex and confusing part of the wedge formula. Many top brands offer a complex array of sole configurations, all of them admittedly specialized to a particular kind of lie or turf conditions, and/or a particular divot pattern.

But if you don’t play the same turf all the time, and make the same size divot on every swing, how would you ever figure this out?

The only way is to take any wedge you are considering and play it a few rounds, hitting all the shots you face and observing the results. There’s simply no other way.

So, hopefully this will inspire a lively conversation in our comments section, and I’ll chime in to answer any questions you might have.

And next week, I’ll dive into the rest of the wedge formula. Yes, shafts, grips and specifications are essential, too.

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