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2022 DP World Tour Championship: Betting Tips & Selections

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After 11 months of the 51st official season of the DP World Tour, we arrive at the finale – the DP World Championship, held at the Earth Course, Jumeirah Golf Estate in Dubai.

A genuine test of the very best, the 7600-yard course asks questions of every facet about the game, wearing players down by its length, and often asking players to battle against desert cross-winds.

Players can score well here. Indeed, every one of the 13 winners has recorded a final score well into double-figures ranging between 14-under and 25-under, with a mix of scoring well on the longer par-fours and the four par-fives, determined by quality putting on Bermuda greens.

It’s not Valderrama, the venue previously used as the season closer, but that doesn’t take away the thrilling nature of the track, one that may have not seen a play-off since 2010, but has seen five of the last seven determined by a single stroke.

In a limited elite field, often there is an option somewhere to avoid the top of the market, but here there seems little choice but to row along.

Four players have won this event twice, and three return to tee it up again this week.

Rory McIlroy is the undisputed best player in the world and victory here would wrap up the titles on both sides of the Atlantic.

He doesn’t have to win this week to do that, but Rory isn’t a player to sit in laurels and will surely attempt to continue a stunning run of form that includes giving former world number one, Scottie Scheffler, a start and beating at East Lake, sauntering home when defending the CJ Cup, and in-between having chances in Italy and at Wentworth.

However, he hasn’t played competitive golf for a few weeks and it’s worth recalling that he led after the first and third rounds last year before falling to sixth, whilst he had a chance to win in 2019 before a final round 73 saw him finish well behind this week’s market rival, Jon Rahm.

For me, the Spanish star hasn’t been at his best for a while, his only victory since May coming in a much lower-class field at his home Open.

I’m happy to leave both alone in favour of the man that says, ‘I know this one like the back of my hand and feel so comfortable here. That has to count in my favour.”

Given his course record of seven starts, two wins, one-runner-up, fourth and ninth, there is no question that Matt Fitzpatrick enjoys the trial of these four days.

 

Now armed with length off the tee, he has a natural ability to save par – crucial when in elite fields – whilst also ranking highly in par-five performance.

As he showed in his two course wins, both by a shot from proven links players Tyrrell Hatton and Lee Westwood, he is tenacious in battle and simply keeps grinding away, as he did when winning his first major, at Brookline in June this year.

His play-off loss to Robert McIntyre in Italy was maybe a surprise, but that player is himself a major contender of the future, something crucial to the outcome of this event, and he did have McIlroy, Hatton and Viktor Hovland behind.

Of the top trio, the 28-year-old is the least likely to spit out the dummy and keep going. He can be the first to win the DP World Championship for the third time.

The last ten champions have all been existing major champions, or (as with Fitzpatrick) future major winners and it looks likely the outcome will be the same.

Viktor Hovland hasn’t won one yet, and his last win was almost 11 months ago (although admittedly from an excellent field) at nearby Emirates Club, so at a few points bigger, take proven major winner and contender Shane Lowry.

The 35-year-old Irishman is simply a big-time player, with his victories including a six-shot Open victory in tough conditions at Royal Portrush and a win from an elite field at the WGC Bridgestone, all starting from a win at the 2009 Irish Open as an amateur.

 

Aside from his win at the 148th Open Championship, Lowry has six top-10s in majors through 12 years and European wins in Portugal, Abu Dhabi, and latterly Wentworth, where motivated by some LIV discussion, he beat both McIlroy and Rahm by a shot, with Hovland et al well beaten off.

Rather like the headline selection, Lowry is a big-time player that turns out against the very best and enjoys it around here, a course at which he led at halfway in 2021 before a benign back-nine caused him to drift out of contention, still finishing on the front page of the board.

Admittedly, rather like Tommy Fleetwood, Lowry would rather conditions became a tad more difficult, but he finished ninth and 12th in the past two runnings of this prestigious event despite losing shots off the tee, and any slight improvement in that, plus his standard top-grade iron play and short game, should see him stave off much of the lesser-knowns in this field. I’ll also be looking out for match-bets against Hovland.

Away from the stars, it’s very difficult to see a shock winner. Although the likes of Antoine Rozner and Eddie Pepperell are playing well, and have huge links form, it’s asking an awful lot for them to beat players they rarely finish in front of, and especially on a course proven to reward the very best.

Instead of tilting at windmills, I’m playing two names that are links-positive and who have pretensions to performing at majors, particularly at The Open.

Kiwi Ryan Fox is playing his best golf of a 10-year career.

 

Previously hard to win with, mainly because of a very poor short game, Fox has elevated himself to number two on the DP World Tour rankings, just behind McIlroy and in front of much of the top lot taking part here this week.

Fox has played more DP events, but his run over the past 10 months has been nothing short of sensational, taking him from a world ranking outside of the top-200, to a current place inside the top-30.

In his last 20 starts, the 35-year-old son of New Zealand rugby legend Grant, has won in Ras Al Khaimah and at the Dunhill Links, finished runner-up four times, including last weekend when one final-hole error let in course specialist Tommy Fleetwood, and posted four further to-five finishes.

Over the last three months, Fox ranks third in all-round rankings behind you-know-who and Jordan Smith, comprising 15th for driving, 34th for greens-in-regulation and top-10 for putting.

Although course form is average, Fox is on a different level now from the player seen in 2018 and proved so by finishing runner-up last week on a course he had not previously finished inside the top-50.

One of only a few that can be fancied to mix it up with the big boys, and with the motivation to challenge the big boys to the title, he admits:

      “I’ll just try to do the same thing – go out and beat the golf course then see what happens. I’m looking forward to it.” 

I’m struggling a little with Robert MacIntyre. 

Although still believing he is capable of a big run in a big event, the Scot’s inconsistency makes him very hard to read, and punters should take care where to back him.

However, when he is right, as when beating Fitzpatrick in a play-off for the Italian Open (McIlroy behind), he looks like the player that finished tied-sixth and tied-eighth in two of the three Open Championships he has contested in a short career.

 

12th and 23rd at The Masters shows the 26-year-old has the class to contend in this field whilst repeat performances at the Dunhill Links, Alfred Dunhill (South Africa) and Italian Open (two different courses) suggest he can turn it on when conditions suit.

At the Earth Course, we can upgrade MacIntyre’s finishes of 4/23/14 as he was second, 12th and fourth through three rounds of the 2020 running, whilst he was never out of the top-five last season, after a run of four missed-cuts and a best of tied-24th in seven outings.

This year he comes into the event in a good frame of mind. Having made all eight cuts from all of his recent outings, his form of two top-10s and a pair of top-20 finishes, suggests he could again put in a performance that will shake-up the ante-post odds for Hoylake in July next year.

Recomended Bets:

Matt Fitzpatrick  Win

Shane Lowry Win

Ryan Fox Win AND Top-10

Robert MacIntyre Win AND Top-10

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s LIV Golf Singapore betting preview: Course specialist ready to thrive once again

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After another strong showing in Australia, LIV Golf will head to Sentosa Golf Club in Singapore looking to build off of what was undoubtedly their best event to date.

Sentosa Golf Club sits on the southern tip of Singapore and is one of the most beautiful courses in the world. The course is more than just incredible scenically; it was also rated 55th in Golf Digest’s top-100 courses in 2022-2023 and has been consistently regarded as one of the best courses in Asia. Prior to being part of the LIV rotation, the course hosted the Singapore Open every year since 2005.

Sentosa Golf Club is a par 71 measuring 7,406 yards. The course will require precise ball striking and some length off the tee. It’s possible to go low due to the pristine conditions, but there are also plenty of hazards and difficult spots on the course that can bring double bogey into play in a hurry. The Bermudagrass greens are perfectly manicured, and the course has spent millions on the sub-air system to keep the greens rolling fast. I spoke to Asian Tour player, Travis Smyth, who described the greens as “the best [he’s] ever played.”

Davis Love III, who competed in a Singapore Open in 2019, also gushed over the condition of the golf course.

“I love the greens. They are fabulous,” the 21-time PGA Tour winner said.

Love III also spoke about other aspects of the golf course.

“The greens are great; the fairways are perfect. It is a wonderful course, and it’s tricky off the tee.”

“It’s a long golf course, and you get some long iron shots. It takes somebody hitting it great to hit every green even though they are big.”

As Love III said, the course can be difficult off the tee due to the length of the course and the trouble looming around every corner. It will take a terrific ball striking week to win at Sentosa Golf Club.

In his pre-tournament press conference last season, Phil Mickelson echoed many of the same sentiments.

“To play Sentosa effectively, you’re going to have a lot of shots from 160 to 210, a lot of full 6-, 7-, 8-iron shots, and you need to hit those really well and you need to drive the ball well.”

Golfers who excel from tee to green and can dial in their longer irons will have a massive advantage this week.

Stat Leaders at LIV Golf Adelaide:

Fairways Hit

1.) Louis Oosthuizen

2.) Anirban Lahiri

3.) Jon Rahm

4.) Brendan Steele

5.) Cameron Tringale

Greens in Regulation

1.) Brooks Koepka

2.) Brendan Steele

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Cameron Tringale

5.) Anirban Lahiri

Birdies Made

1.) Brendan Steele

2.) Dean Burmester

3.) Thomas Pieters

4.) Patrick Reed

5.) Carlos Ortiz

LIV Golf Individual Standings:

1.) Joaquin Niemann

2.) Jon Rahm

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Louis Oosthuizen

5.) Abraham Ancer

LIV Golf Team Standings:

1.) Crushers

2.) Legion XIII

3.) Torque

4.) Stinger GC

5.) Ripper GC

LIV Golf Singapore Picks

Sergio Garcia +3000 (DraftKings)

Sergio Garcia is no stranger to Sentosa Golf Club. The Spaniard won the Singapore Open in 2018 by five strokes and lost in a playoff at LIV Singapore last year to scorching hot Talor Gooch. Looking at the course setup, it’s no surprise that a player like Sergio has played incredible golf here. He’s long off the tee and is one of the better long iron players in the world when he’s in form. Garcia is also statistically a much better putter on Bermudagrass than he is on other putting surfaces. He’s putt extremely well on Sentosa’s incredibly pure green complexes.

This season, Garcia has two runner-up finishes, both of them being playoff losses. Both El Camaleon and Doral are courses he’s had success at in his career. The Spaniard is a player who plays well at his tracks, and Sentosa is one of them. I believe Sergio will get himself in the mix this week. Hopefully the third time is a charm in Singapore.

Paul Casey +3300 (FanDuel)

Paul Casey is in the midst of one of his best seasons in the five years or so. The results recently have been up and down, but he’s shown that when he’s on a golf course that suits his game, he’s amongst the contenders.

This season, Casey has finishes of T5 (LIV Las Vegas), T2 (LIV Hong Kong), and a 6th at the Singapore Classic on the DP World Tour. At his best, the Englishman is one of the best long iron players in the world, which makes him a strong fit for Sentosa. Despite being in poor form last season, he was able to fire a Sunday 63, which shows he can low here at the course.

It’s been three years since Casey has won a tournament (Omega Dubai Desert Classic in 2021), but he’s been one of the top players on LIV this season and I think he can get it done at some point this season.

Mito Pereira +5000 (Bet365)

Since Mito Pereira’s unfortunate demise at the 2022 PGA Championship, he’s been extremely inconsistent. However, over the past few months, the Chilean has played well on the International Series as well as his most recent LIV start. Mito finished 8th at LIV Adelaide, which was his best LIV finish this season.

Last year, Pereira finished 5th at LIV Singapore, shooting fantastic rounds of 67-66-66. It makes sense why Mito would like Sentosa, as preeminent ball strikers tend to rise to the challenge of the golf course. He’s a great long iron player who is long and straight off the tee.

Mito has some experience playing in Asia and is one of the most talented players on LIV who’s yet to get in the winner’s circle. I have questions about whether or not he can come through once in contention, but if he gets there, I’m happy to roll the dice.

Andy Ogletree +15000 (DraftKings)

Andy Ogletree is a player I expected to have a strong 2024 but struggled early in his first full season on LIV. After failing to crack the top-25 in any LIV event this year, the former U.S. Amateur champion finally figured things out, finished in a tie for 3rd at LIV Adelaide.

Ogletree should be incredible comfortable playing in Singapore. He won the International Series Qatar last year and finished T3 at the International Series Singapore. The 26-year-old was arguably the best player on the Asian Tour in 2023 and has been fantastic in the continent over the past 18 months.

If Ogletree has indeed found form, he looks to be an amazing value at triple-digit odds.

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Lessons from the worst golf instructor in America

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In Tampa, there is a golf course that boasts carts that do not work, a water range, and a group of players none of which have any chance to break 80. The course is overseen by a staff of crusty men who have succeeded at nothing in life but ending up at the worst-run course in America. However, this place is no failure. With several other local courses going out of business — and boasting outstanding greens — the place is booked full.

While I came for the great greens, I stayed to watch our resident instructor; a poor-tempered, method teacher who caters to the hopeless. At first, it was simply hilarious. However, after months of listening and watching, something clicked. I realized I had a front-row seat to the worst golf instructor in America.

Here are some of my key takeaways.

Method Teacher

It is widely accepted that there are three types of golf instructors: system teachers, non-system teachers, and method teachers. Method teachers prescribe the same antidote for each student based on a preamble which teachers can learn in a couple day certification.

Method teaching allows anyone to be certified. This process caters to the lowest caliber instructor, creating the illusion of competency. This empowers these underqualified instructors with the moniker of “certified” to prey on the innocent and uninformed.

The Cult of Stack and Jilt

The Stack and Tilt website proudly boasts, “A golfer swings his hands inward in the backswing as opposed to straight back to 1) create power, similar to a field goal kicker moving his leg in an arc and 2) to promote a swing that is in-to-out, which produces a draw (and eliminates a slice).”

Now, let me tell you something, there is this law of the universe which says “energy can either be created or destroyed,” so either these guys are defying physics or they have no idea what they are taking about. Further, the idea that the first move of the backswing determines impact is conjecture with a splash of utter fantasy.

These are the pontifications of a method — a set of prescriptions applied to everyone with the hope of some success through the placebo effect. It is one thing for a naive student to believe, for a golf instructor to drink and then dispel this Kool-Aid is malpractice.

Fooled by Randomness

In flipping a coin, or even a March Madness bet, there is a 50-50 chance of success. In golf, especially for new players, results are asymmetric. Simply put: Anything can happen. The problem is that when bad instructors work with high handicappers, each and every shot gets its own diagnosis and prescription. Soon the student is overwhelmed.

Now here’s the sinister thing: The overwhelming information is by design. In this case, the coach is not trying to make you better, they are trying to make you reliant on them for information. A quasi Stockholm syndrome of codependency.

Practice

One of the most important scientists of the 20th century was Ivan Pavlov. As you might recall, he found that animals, including humans, could be conditioned into biological responses. In golf, the idea of practice has made millions of hackers salivate that they are one lesson or practice session from “the secret.”

Sunk Cost

The idea for the worst golf instructor is to create control and dependency so that clients ignore the sunk cost of not getting better. Instead, they are held hostage by the idea that they are one lesson or tip away from unlocking their potential.

Cliches

Cliches have the effect of terminating thoughts. However, they are the weapon of choice for this instructor. Add some hyperbole and students actually get no information. As a result, these players couldn’t play golf. When they did, they had no real scheme. With no idea what they are doing, they would descend into a spiral of no idea what to do, bad results, lower confidence, and running back to the lesson tee from more cliches.

The fact is that poor instruction is about conditioning players to become reliant members of your cult. To take away autonomy. To use practice as a form of control. To sell more golf lessons not by making people better but through the guise that without the teacher, the student can never reach their full potential. All under the umbrella of being “certified” (in a 2-day course!) and a melee of cliches.

This of course is not just happening at my muni but is a systemic problem around the country and around the world, the consequences of which are giving people a great reason to stop playing golf. But hey, at least it’s selling a lot of golf balls…

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

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The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

  • 2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
  • 2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
  • 2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
  • 2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
  • 2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
  • 2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

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