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2022 Mallorca Golf Open: Betting Picks

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From my favourite course on the calendar to a brand new track, with the addition of a downturn in class.

After Adrian Otaegui’s incredible six shot victory at Valderrama, we arrive at Son Muntaner Golf Club, a resort course that seems to offer nothing approaching the test of last week. Indeed, whilst the amateur players give it a thumbs-up on most review pages, the fact remains it is flat, open and with large greens. 20-under ahoy.

 

The last couple of weeks have been good for this column, with a couple of confident wagers being handsomely rewarded.

However, with players fighting for their place inside the top-117 on the DP rankings, and the prospect of this turning into a birdie-fest, it wouldn’t surprise if the classier types dominated the board, nor if a maiden finally limped over the line, as Jeff Winther did at Santa Ponsa last year.

It’s hard to see last week’s hero, Otaegui, going back-to-back after such an emotional win, but he was that superior to everyone else that this could be a walk in the park for a player that continues to show top class tee-to-green play, and whose putting allowed him to find almost 13 shots on last week’s field. 18-1 is not 50, though, so the likely comedown from this ex-LIV player is just enough to put me off.

Instead, plump for a couple from the top on a win-only basis, both of whom could take this short 7000-yard course apart.

Ryan Fox  WIN

Richard Mansell WIN

Yannik Paul WIN/TOP-5

Romain Langasque WIN/TOP-5

Darius Van Driel WIN/TOP-5/TOP-20

Ryan Fox calls himself on a course that will reward his length off the tee, and having now firmly established himself as a two-time winner on the DP World Tour, can ease his way around this track without too much pressure.

 

A winner at Ras Al Khaimah and at the Dunhill Links, Fox has always been at his best when he can open up on wide fairways, and whilst that has ever been the case, he is a much improved putter these days meaning he should take advantage of the five sub-400-yard par-4s and the three reachable longer holes, especially as many of his better efforts this year have been in far better grade.

After a season that has seen him record those two victories, three runner-up finishes, a third and two further top-10 finishes, Fox currently lies fourth for tee-to-green and second in strokes-gained-total for the season. There was no shame in the Kiwi missing the cut on the number at Valderrama last week and can take the opportunity to move closer to the only two in front of him in the rankings – Rory McIlroy and Matt Fitzpatrick – neither of whom likely to tee it up on this side of the world until the season finale next month.

Back the multiple champ up with two younger players for whom this looks a great chance to break their duck.

27-year-old Richard Mansell has an unfortunate connection with Fox, having held a four shot lead going into the final round at St. Andrews and co. and can take encouragement from his 37th at Valderrama on a course that could not have suited this bomber.

In just his second full season on the DP Tour, the man from Cannock has risen from a world ranking of around 400 to his current status just inside the top 200, though it could have been an awful lot better.

In his last 40 starts, Mansell has held mid-event top-10 positions in 14 events, including at Mallorca last year when sixth at halfway, and this year at Crans, Himmerland, Dunhill Links and last week at Valderrama, when 15th at the cut mark.

Leader in off-the-tee stats for the year, this hugely talented player is in the top-10 for tee-to-green and strokes gained total, and is another for whom this track should prove simple target practice.

Mansell’s well-documented issues lie with what happens after his second shot, and he could be another Laurie Canter – massive game but without the fortitude to win. I prefer to think of him as a Winther, and with the ability to convert one of his many top-10s into a victory.

I know that I am on an upward trajectory. It sounds simplistic but ultimately it is about getting better year in year out, rather than look to make enormous leaps. The mindset of incremental gains is what I have done so far in my professional career, and I am confident I can continue to do so. I am now playing in Majors so something must be going right! It is an exciting time personally.”

I’m back in again on Yannik Paul this week after a 21st place finish last week, a result that looked as if it might be far better at the halfway stage, when a second round 68 took him a hair outside of the top-10.

There is little to add to last week’s paragraphs:

After six top-10s on the Challenge Tour last season, Yannik finished with a one-shot defeat by Marcus Helligkilde at the season-ending Grand Final, and therefore qualifying for the top league.

A few weeks later, the former University of Colorado student finished top-10 in the rain-affected Joburg Open before top-10s at the ISPS Handa at the Infinitum course, Tarragona (Otaegui in second) and subsequently joint-runner-up at Soudal in Belgium (see Otaegui again, tied with Ryan Fox, with form around Valders and strongly fancied this week).

Recent form is again encouraging, with a pair of eighth place finishes in his last three starts, in France and Spain again, whilst the missed cut that sits in-between the two was courtesy of an 81 in the horrendous conditions of a Friday at the Dunhill Links.

Rather like a pro golfer on the tee, don’t look at the nasty stuff, look at the positives, and 68 and 67 for two of the three rounds of the rotation in Scotland are perfectly acceptable, giving him a recent set of very acceptable results that include a top-20 at the Korn Ferry Tour Championship.

Yannik is improving all the time, has top-20 tee-to-green figures, ranks 11th for scrambling and 7th for total strokes gained over the season, easily good enough to compete here, and can land his fifth top-10 in Spain from nine starts, with last week’s 21st and a previous 23rd thrown in for good measure.

Punters must get frustrated with Romain Langasque, a player who looked as if he must kick-on after his victory at Celtic Manor in 2020, but who seems to have lost something for the moment, perhaps and hopefully temporarily.

 

The Frenchman hasn’t done an awful lot since eight consecutive cuts through the middle of the year, with his three top-10s finding him finishing all to late and never nearer the lead. There was encouragement in his 14th at the Hero Open at Fairmont when a poor third round 75 knocked him way out of the top-10 before recovering well on payday, and recent efforts are a tad better than the figures suggest.

At the Dunhill Links, the 27-year-old shot an 11-under 61 to tie the St. Andrews course record with a final six holes that contained five birdies and an eagle, and whilst the eventual winner was lapping the field last week, Langasque’s third round 69 lifted him up to just outside the top 20 going into the final round.

It’s not perfect golf by any means and there is a concern with what has happened to his long game, but on a course that will be as forgiving as a benign St. Andrews, perhaps that will be the catalyst for a return to form for the high quality 2015 Amateur Championship winner.

Finally, let’s row in with the thought that those on the mark for their card will try awfully hard to get something out of the next couple of weeks, starting now.

Right at the bottom, at number 117, is two-time Challenge Tour winner, Darius Van Driel, and whilst the Dutchman has two more missed-cuts than top-10s this season, some of those better finishes read nicely in the context of this event.

2022 started slowly, but a top-10 in Germany followed a fourth place finish in Sweden, both results that would be good enough to contend here. In between three missed weekends, the former high-quality junior racked up three decent finishes at Hillside, Fairmont and Crans, before again losing form and being dq’d at the Dunhill Links.

With just a few weeks of the season to go, much of that could have left its mark, but Van Driel has fought back over the last two weeks in Spain, finishing 8th at Club De Campo before hanging around the top-20 for all of the Andalucía Masters.

While expecting a long driver of the ball to dominate here this week, Van Driel does nothing either spectacular or disastrous, but he can play golf, and play it better in Spain where he has three top-10s from his last 11 starts.

With the obvious impetus to gain ranking points here this week, expect that extra effort to finish close to his 2021 ranking of inside the top-100.

 

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s LIV Golf Singapore betting preview: Course specialist ready to thrive once again

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After another strong showing in Australia, LIV Golf will head to Sentosa Golf Club in Singapore looking to build off of what was undoubtedly their best event to date.

Sentosa Golf Club sits on the southern tip of Singapore and is one of the most beautiful courses in the world. The course is more than just incredible scenically; it was also rated 55th in Golf Digest’s top-100 courses in 2022-2023 and has been consistently regarded as one of the best courses in Asia. Prior to being part of the LIV rotation, the course hosted the Singapore Open every year since 2005.

Sentosa Golf Club is a par 71 measuring 7,406 yards. The course will require precise ball striking and some length off the tee. It’s possible to go low due to the pristine conditions, but there are also plenty of hazards and difficult spots on the course that can bring double bogey into play in a hurry. The Bermudagrass greens are perfectly manicured, and the course has spent millions on the sub-air system to keep the greens rolling fast. I spoke to Asian Tour player, Travis Smyth, who described the greens as “the best [he’s] ever played.”

Davis Love III, who competed in a Singapore Open in 2019, also gushed over the condition of the golf course.

“I love the greens. They are fabulous,” the 21-time PGA Tour winner said.

Love III also spoke about other aspects of the golf course.

“The greens are great; the fairways are perfect. It is a wonderful course, and it’s tricky off the tee.”

“It’s a long golf course, and you get some long iron shots. It takes somebody hitting it great to hit every green even though they are big.”

As Love III said, the course can be difficult off the tee due to the length of the course and the trouble looming around every corner. It will take a terrific ball striking week to win at Sentosa Golf Club.

In his pre-tournament press conference last season, Phil Mickelson echoed many of the same sentiments.

“To play Sentosa effectively, you’re going to have a lot of shots from 160 to 210, a lot of full 6-, 7-, 8-iron shots, and you need to hit those really well and you need to drive the ball well.”

Golfers who excel from tee to green and can dial in their longer irons will have a massive advantage this week.

Stat Leaders at LIV Golf Adelaide:

Fairways Hit

1.) Louis Oosthuizen

2.) Anirban Lahiri

3.) Jon Rahm

4.) Brendan Steele

5.) Cameron Tringale

Greens in Regulation

1.) Brooks Koepka

2.) Brendan Steele

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Cameron Tringale

5.) Anirban Lahiri

Birdies Made

1.) Brendan Steele

2.) Dean Burmester

3.) Thomas Pieters

4.) Patrick Reed

5.) Carlos Ortiz

LIV Golf Individual Standings:

1.) Joaquin Niemann

2.) Jon Rahm

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Louis Oosthuizen

5.) Abraham Ancer

LIV Golf Team Standings:

1.) Crushers

2.) Legion XIII

3.) Torque

4.) Stinger GC

5.) Ripper GC

LIV Golf Singapore Picks

Sergio Garcia +3000 (DraftKings)

Sergio Garcia is no stranger to Sentosa Golf Club. The Spaniard won the Singapore Open in 2018 by five strokes and lost in a playoff at LIV Singapore last year to scorching hot Talor Gooch. Looking at the course setup, it’s no surprise that a player like Sergio has played incredible golf here. He’s long off the tee and is one of the better long iron players in the world when he’s in form. Garcia is also statistically a much better putter on Bermudagrass than he is on other putting surfaces. He’s putt extremely well on Sentosa’s incredibly pure green complexes.

This season, Garcia has two runner-up finishes, both of them being playoff losses. Both El Camaleon and Doral are courses he’s had success at in his career. The Spaniard is a player who plays well at his tracks, and Sentosa is one of them. I believe Sergio will get himself in the mix this week. Hopefully the third time is a charm in Singapore.

Paul Casey +3300 (FanDuel)

Paul Casey is in the midst of one of his best seasons in the five years or so. The results recently have been up and down, but he’s shown that when he’s on a golf course that suits his game, he’s amongst the contenders.

This season, Casey has finishes of T5 (LIV Las Vegas), T2 (LIV Hong Kong), and a 6th at the Singapore Classic on the DP World Tour. At his best, the Englishman is one of the best long iron players in the world, which makes him a strong fit for Sentosa. Despite being in poor form last season, he was able to fire a Sunday 63, which shows he can low here at the course.

It’s been three years since Casey has won a tournament (Omega Dubai Desert Classic in 2021), but he’s been one of the top players on LIV this season and I think he can get it done at some point this season.

Mito Pereira +5000 (Bet365)

Since Mito Pereira’s unfortunate demise at the 2022 PGA Championship, he’s been extremely inconsistent. However, over the past few months, the Chilean has played well on the International Series as well as his most recent LIV start. Mito finished 8th at LIV Adelaide, which was his best LIV finish this season.

Last year, Pereira finished 5th at LIV Singapore, shooting fantastic rounds of 67-66-66. It makes sense why Mito would like Sentosa, as preeminent ball strikers tend to rise to the challenge of the golf course. He’s a great long iron player who is long and straight off the tee.

Mito has some experience playing in Asia and is one of the most talented players on LIV who’s yet to get in the winner’s circle. I have questions about whether or not he can come through once in contention, but if he gets there, I’m happy to roll the dice.

Andy Ogletree +15000 (DraftKings)

Andy Ogletree is a player I expected to have a strong 2024 but struggled early in his first full season on LIV. After failing to crack the top-25 in any LIV event this year, the former U.S. Amateur champion finally figured things out, finished in a tie for 3rd at LIV Adelaide.

Ogletree should be incredible comfortable playing in Singapore. He won the International Series Qatar last year and finished T3 at the International Series Singapore. The 26-year-old was arguably the best player on the Asian Tour in 2023 and has been fantastic in the continent over the past 18 months.

If Ogletree has indeed found form, he looks to be an amazing value at triple-digit odds.

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Lessons from the worst golf instructor in America

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In Tampa, there is a golf course that boasts carts that do not work, a water range, and a group of players none of which have any chance to break 80. The course is overseen by a staff of crusty men who have succeeded at nothing in life but ending up at the worst-run course in America. However, this place is no failure. With several other local courses going out of business — and boasting outstanding greens — the place is booked full.

While I came for the great greens, I stayed to watch our resident instructor; a poor-tempered, method teacher who caters to the hopeless. At first, it was simply hilarious. However, after months of listening and watching, something clicked. I realized I had a front-row seat to the worst golf instructor in America.

Here are some of my key takeaways.

Method Teacher

It is widely accepted that there are three types of golf instructors: system teachers, non-system teachers, and method teachers. Method teachers prescribe the same antidote for each student based on a preamble which teachers can learn in a couple day certification.

Method teaching allows anyone to be certified. This process caters to the lowest caliber instructor, creating the illusion of competency. This empowers these underqualified instructors with the moniker of “certified” to prey on the innocent and uninformed.

The Cult of Stack and Jilt

The Stack and Tilt website proudly boasts, “A golfer swings his hands inward in the backswing as opposed to straight back to 1) create power, similar to a field goal kicker moving his leg in an arc and 2) to promote a swing that is in-to-out, which produces a draw (and eliminates a slice).”

Now, let me tell you something, there is this law of the universe which says “energy can either be created or destroyed,” so either these guys are defying physics or they have no idea what they are taking about. Further, the idea that the first move of the backswing determines impact is conjecture with a splash of utter fantasy.

These are the pontifications of a method — a set of prescriptions applied to everyone with the hope of some success through the placebo effect. It is one thing for a naive student to believe, for a golf instructor to drink and then dispel this Kool-Aid is malpractice.

Fooled by Randomness

In flipping a coin, or even a March Madness bet, there is a 50-50 chance of success. In golf, especially for new players, results are asymmetric. Simply put: Anything can happen. The problem is that when bad instructors work with high handicappers, each and every shot gets its own diagnosis and prescription. Soon the student is overwhelmed.

Now here’s the sinister thing: The overwhelming information is by design. In this case, the coach is not trying to make you better, they are trying to make you reliant on them for information. A quasi Stockholm syndrome of codependency.

Practice

One of the most important scientists of the 20th century was Ivan Pavlov. As you might recall, he found that animals, including humans, could be conditioned into biological responses. In golf, the idea of practice has made millions of hackers salivate that they are one lesson or practice session from “the secret.”

Sunk Cost

The idea for the worst golf instructor is to create control and dependency so that clients ignore the sunk cost of not getting better. Instead, they are held hostage by the idea that they are one lesson or tip away from unlocking their potential.

Cliches

Cliches have the effect of terminating thoughts. However, they are the weapon of choice for this instructor. Add some hyperbole and students actually get no information. As a result, these players couldn’t play golf. When they did, they had no real scheme. With no idea what they are doing, they would descend into a spiral of no idea what to do, bad results, lower confidence, and running back to the lesson tee from more cliches.

The fact is that poor instruction is about conditioning players to become reliant members of your cult. To take away autonomy. To use practice as a form of control. To sell more golf lessons not by making people better but through the guise that without the teacher, the student can never reach their full potential. All under the umbrella of being “certified” (in a 2-day course!) and a melee of cliches.

This of course is not just happening at my muni but is a systemic problem around the country and around the world, the consequences of which are giving people a great reason to stop playing golf. But hey, at least it’s selling a lot of golf balls…

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

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The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

  • 2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
  • 2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
  • 2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
  • 2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
  • 2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
  • 2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

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