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2022 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship: Betting Picks & Selections

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After an enthralling weekend, things get back on track with ‘standard’ 72-hole events on both sides of the pond.

In Europe, the DP World Tour continues an excellent, varied, schedule by hosting the 21st running of the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, taking in rounds at Kingsbarns, Carnoustie and St. Andrews, before finishing the pro-am format at the Home of Golf.

It’s been just a few weeks since Cam Smith broke Rory McIlroy’s heart here at the 150th Open, and much has changed since, most notably the Aussie’s defection to the LIV tour. Given the proliferation of amateurs, the course won’t be set up anywhere near as tough as it was in August, but with some wind and rain expected, it will be as unpredictable as we can get it.

The PGA Tour resumes the always-bizarre wraparound season, this time at the Sanderson Farms, once an ‘opposite’ event, but now a fully fledged member of the schedule.

‘Average’ is the word I’d use to describe this event, as that is exactly what it is.

Average width, average length, average greens, and whilst fairways and greens will always help, the last four winners have ranked in the top four for strokes gained off the tee. 2018 champion, Cameron Champ, summed it up best by saying, “I felt like if I was further up, even in the rough versus hitting a 3-wood being 40 yards back, I would rather be up there. I guess that’s the game plan.”

Here are this week’s best bets at each:

Robert MacIntyre 33/1

Thorbjorn Oleson 66/1

Ewen Ferguson 100/1

The top of the market is predictably strong, with the ‘best’ player in the world, Rory McIlroy, rightly heading the market. However, backing golfers at 9/2 will not make anyone rich, especially given the way Rory has failed to convert chances here and recently at The Open, Wentworth and at the Italian Open.

Given links courses in Autumn offer a unique test, it is no surprise to see home players have won two-thirds of the 21 events held here so far, with the first seven being won by either an Englishman, Scot, or Pádraig Harrington.

That theme can continue this week with the back-in-form Robert MacIntyre, a player that may well be sitting on the odds-list next to Tyrrell Hatton before too long.

The 26-year-old has long been considered a high-class recruit to the professional ranks, and while we always expect more, the eventual second win in Italy has to have settled any self-doubt.

The Scot has been on the tour for just over three seasons, so it’s tough to feel disappointed at a record that shows five top three finishes and 12 further top-10s.

Included in those top performances are a pair of top-10s at The Open at Portrush and St. George’s, where a better tee-shot on the final par-five would have resulted in a comfortable top five, and a tied-12th at The Masters, easily good enough and significant enough to be competitive in this grade, and on a course that will suit.

MacIntyre’s versatility has already been shown with his wins at the gettable Cyprus Showdown and most recently at the far tougher Italian Open, coming through the field on Saturday, before shooting the lights out on Payday, eventually beating Matt Fitzpatrick in a play-off.

Previous best efforts of 2022 were 13th at Mount Juliet and 12th in Himmerland, both courses with an eye on the factors required here, whilst his stats have settled into a decent level – top-7 in tee-to-green for three of his last four events – with everything working around his natural ability.

Just after the Scottish Open in July, he admitted that, “My head hasn’t been right. I’m getting down on myself pretty easily. When it all clicks in and I start getting momentum going, I’ll be back to myself. Golf’s a funny game and it’s not been kind to me just now, but it will be.”

He’s back, and the best bet of the week.

Given the bookmakers often react quickly to form changes, back up the Scot with players that may look out of form, but arrive at conditions that suit much better.

Thorbjorn Olesen is one of those players that is very hard to read, but when showing something, and getting to windy links, he is an almost must-bet.

First and second around here in eight starts, the Dane has had a tumultuous couple of years, but looks to be close to his best once again, a best that includes top performances in .

It may have involved a bit of a closer finish than desired, but the one-shot victory at The Belfry in May came after showing a bit at both Abu Dhabi and Qatar, more evidence to his liking of windy Middle East tracks.

It’s true that he’s been very in-and-out since then, but in both Italy and France, his overall figures point to a player in full control of his game. Yes, we must forgive the poor performance on the greens at Le Golf National, but these are a completely different test and I’d wager he will return to the positive putting figures of his previous six outings.

Having withdrawn from the BMW International in June, the 32-year-old has four top-20 finishes, 22nd and 30th finishes on the card, returns to a favoured venue, and can make his way again up to the top echelons of the tour.

I’ll continue to put up Ewen Ferguson as he seems to drift further down the market each week as, frankly, a convincing two-time winner should not be triple-figures, especially he could legitimately be chasing a fifth title of the year this week.

As discussed multiple times, the 26-year-old wasn’t experienced enough in contention to take advantage of a final round lead in Kenya, but used that when out-grinding his opposition in Qatar, and proving far too good for compatriot Connor Syme and co at Galgorm Castle.

Just two weeks later, Ferguson was the best player on the Himmerland course, only to be denied by Oliver Wilson’s bizarre putting, a result that links in very well here. After all, the Englishman has only ever won twice, his first being here in 2014.

The Glasgow-born player is the only golfer to have held the British Boys, Scottish Strokeplay and Matchplay titles at the same time, his win at Royal Liverpool in 2013 coming via a comprehensive 10 & 9 victory. Winning the Scottish Champion of Champions and finishing in third place at the Irish Amateur Open led to a place on the 2016 Walker Cup team where he contributed one win from two singles matches (beating Maverick McNealy) in a comprehensive victory over a certain Bryson DeChambeau et al.

Shut your eyes and ignore the last two missed-cuts. This event should mean he can load up on his driving, allowing his top-grade iron play to present plenty of chances to return to the ranking of first for tee-to-green that he showed in Ireland and Denmark.

Coming off such a highly strung Presidents Cup may not suit the obvious pick Sam Burns, especially after a series of results that won’t flatter him. Still, should he win, that would be the third leg of a Max Homa-Team USA-Burns three-peat of 2021. It doesn’t happen.

In a tough event to start the year proper, just a couple to be with.

Start the plan off with Sahith Theegala to gain revenge on the event that first made his name.

Just the fifth person to win the Haskins, Hogan and Nicklaus awards in college, the Pepperdine athlete was always going to do something in the professional game, but few thought it would come in his second event as a full PGA Tour player.

12 months ago, the 24-year-old shot a bogey-free third round 67 to take a lead into the final round at the Country Club of Jackson, but faded to finish in eighth place behind Sam Burns after a bizarre attempt to hit the hero shot from a bunker. Absolutely no connection with Ewen Ferguson at all, except that he too faded from the lead to 8th on his first attempt at landing a title with an overnight lead, and he soon won twice.

Like the Scot, Theegala learned from the experience to lie in sixth at Torrey Pines, before a sponsor’s exemption allowed him into the Raucous Phoenix Open, where again he took a lead into the final round. This time, he lasted to the short par-four 17th, when fate would conspire against him, a bad bounce leaving his ball in a water hazard, and costing him that vital shot that left him out of the final play-off, one that served up the first win for eventual world number one, Scottie Scheffler.

What has followed has been a steady flow of improvement, coming from behind to finish seventh in the Valspar, fifth at Muirfield, second at the Travelers and 16th at Deere Run before a run at the FedEx finals, eventually qualifying for the Tour Championship. The knowledge he is among the best of the maidens on tour should have given him confidence for the 2022/23 season, and supporters cannot ask for more than an opening sixth place at the Fortinet, when he was never outside of the top 10.

Expect a victory this season – it’s where, not if.

Is Benny back?

Subject of the best of Sam Harrop’s parody songs, Byeong-Hun An (as he is officially named) would be one of the most popular winners of recent times, and after an extremely encouraging opener, is worth taking the chance with at the price.

The youngest-ever winner of the U.S Amateur, when winning 7&5, he should have made the following year’s qualifier, giving way late in his semi-final. It wasn’t long, however, before he made his way through the ranks, winning the BMW at Wentworth in just his first full season on the European Tour, gaging up by six shots from Thongchai Jaidee and Miguel Angel Jimenez.

And it’s not gone quite right since, all down to the putter – back to Sam again:

Let’s concentrate on the positives – which may include the player sending the crooner one of his own putters – and witness significant improvement over the last few months.

Down a level on the KFT, Benny found something from somewhere, winning his first event for five years at the Suncoast Classic, his seventh best performance according to the OWGR.

Almost certainly securing his card, the Korean followed up his win with a never-nearer 12th and second in April, and lay inside the top 10 before the final round at Memorial Health in July, whilst in-between he nabbed 14th place alongside Sungjae Im.

Two weeks after the Korn Ferry Tour finals, Benny was back on the PGA Tour with a bang, finishing in fourth behind defending champion Max Homa and Danny Willett, the latter a winner of both the BMW PGA and Alfred Dunhill Links.

Ranking second in driving, third in tee-to-green, fourth for around-the-green and better than field average for putting.

If he’s back, and has confidence in the short stick, there is no reason he can’t repeat his 2019 effort here, when third on debut.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

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The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

  • 2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
  • 2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
  • 2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
  • 2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
  • 2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
  • 2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 LIV Adelaide betting preview: Cam Smith ready for big week down under

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After having four of the top twelve players on the leaderboard at The Masters, LIV Golf is set for their fifth event of the season: LIV Adelaide. 

For both LIV fans and golf fans in Australia, LIV Adelaide is one of the most anticipated events of the year. With 35,000 people expected to attend each day of the tournament, the Grange Golf Club will be crawling with fans who are passionate about the sport of golf. The 12th hole, better known as “the watering hole”, is sure to have the rowdiest of the fans cheering after a long day of drinking some Leishman Lager.  

The Grange Golf Club is a par-72 that measures 6,946 yards. The course features minimal resistance, as golfers went extremely low last season. In 2023, Talor Gooch shot consecutive rounds of 62 on Thursday and Friday, giving himself a gigantic cushion heading into championship Sunday. Things got tight for a while, but in the end, the Oklahoma State product was able to hold off The Crushers’ Anirban Lahiri for a three-shot victory. 

The Four Aces won the team competition with the Range Goats finishing second. 

*All Images Courtesy of LIV Golf*

Past Winners at LIV Adelaide

  • 2023: Talor Gooch (-19)

Stat Leaders Through LIV Miami

Green in Regulation

  1. Richard Bland
  2. Jon Rahm
  3. Paul Casey

Fairways Hit

  1. Abraham Ancer
  2. Graeme McDowell
  3. Henrik Stenson

Driving Distance

  1. Bryson DeChambeau
  2. Joaquin Niemann
  3. Dean Burmester

Putting

  1. Cameron Smith
  2. Louis Oosthuizen
  3. Matt Jones

2024 LIV Adelaide Picks

Cameron Smith +1400 (DraftKings)

When I pulled up the odds for LIV Adelaide, I was more than a little surprised to see multiple golfers listed ahead of Cameron Smith on the betting board. A few starts ago, Cam finished runner-up at LIV Hong Kong, which is a golf course that absolutely suits his eye. Augusta National in another course that Smith could roll out of bed and finish in the top-ten at, and he did so two weeks ago at The Masters, finishing T6.

At Augusta, he gained strokes on the field on approach, off the tee (slightly), and of course, around the green and putting. Smith able to get in the mix at a major championship despite coming into the week feeling under the weather tells me that his game is once again rounding into form.

The Grange Golf Club is another course that undoubtedly suits the Australian. Smith is obviously incredibly comfortable playing in front of the Aussie faithful and has won three Australian PGA Championship’s. The course is very short and will allow Smith to play conservative off the tee, mitigating his most glaring weakness. With birdies available all over the golf course, there’s a chance the event turns into a putting contest, and there’s no one on the planet I’d rather have in one of those than Cam Smith.

Louis Oosthuizen +2200 (DraftKings)

Louis Oosthuizen has simply been one of the best players on LIV in the 2024 seas0n. The South African has finished in the top-10 on the LIV leaderboard in three of his five starts, with his best coming in Jeddah, where he finished T2. Perhaps more impressively, Oosthuizen finished T7 at LIV Miami, which took place at Doral’s “Blue Monster”, an absolutely massive golf course. Given that Louis is on the shorter side in terms of distance off the tee, his ability to play well in Miami shows how dialed he is with the irons this season.

In addition to the LIV finishes, Oosthuizen won back-to-back starts on the DP World Tour in December at the Alfred Dunhill Championship and the Mauritus Open. He also finished runner-up at the end of February in the International Series Oman. The 41-year-old has been one of the most consistent performers of 2024, regardless of tour.

For the season, Louis ranks 4th on LIV in birdies made, T9 in fairways hit and first in putting. He ranks 32nd in driving distance, but that won’t be an issue at this short course. Last season, he finished T11 at the event, but was in decent position going into the final round but fell back after shooting 70 while the rest of the field went low. This season, Oosthuizen comes into the event in peak form, and the course should be a perfect fit for his smooth swing and hot putter this week.

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 1

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Of all the clubs in our bags, wedges are almost always the simplest in construction and, therefore, the easiest to analyze what might make one work differently from another if you know what to look for.

Wedges are a lot less mysterious than drivers, of course, as the major brands are working with a lot of “pixie dust” inside these modern marvels. That’s carrying over more to irons now, with so many new models featuring internal multi-material technologies, and almost all of them having a “badge” or insert in the back to allow more complex graphics while hiding the actual distribution of mass.

But when it comes to wedges, most on the market today are still single pieces of molded steel, either cast or forged into that shape. So, if you look closely at where the mass is distributed, it’s pretty clear how that wedge is going to perform.

To start, because of their wider soles, the majority of the mass of almost any wedge is along the bottom third of the clubhead. So, the best wedge shots are always those hit between the 2nd and 5th grooves so that more mass is directly behind that impact. Elite tour professionals practice incessantly to learn to do that consistently, wearing out a spot about the size of a penny right there. If impact moves higher than that, the face is dramatically thinner, so smash factor is compromised significantly, which reduces the overall distance the ball will fly.

Every one of us, tour players included, knows that maddening shot that we feel a bit high on the face and it doesn’t go anywhere, it’s not your fault.

If your wedges show a wear pattern the size of a silver dollar, and centered above the 3rd or 4th groove, you are not getting anywhere near the same performance from shot to shot. Robot testing proves impact even two to three grooves higher in the face can cause distance loss of up to 35 to 55 feet with modern ‘tour design’ wedges.

In addition, as impact moves above the center of mass, the golf club principle of gear effect causes the ball to fly higher with less spin. Think of modern drivers for a minute. The “holy grail” of driving is high launch and low spin, and the driver engineers are pulling out all stops to get the mass as low in the clubhead as possible to optimize this combination.

Where is all the mass in your wedges? Low. So, disregarding the higher lofts, wedges “want” to launch the ball high with low spin – exactly the opposite of what good wedge play requires penetrating ball flight with high spin.

While almost all major brand wedges have begun putting a tiny bit more thickness in the top portion of the clubhead, conventional and modern ‘tour design’ wedges perform pretty much like they always have. Elite players learn to hit those crisp, spinny penetrating wedge shots by spending lots of practice time learning to consistently make contact low in the face.

So, what about grooves and face texture?

Grooves on any club can only do so much, and no one has any material advantage here. The USGA tightly defines what we manufacturers can do with grooves and face texture, and modern manufacturing techniques allow all of us to push those limits ever closer. And we all do. End of story.

Then there’s the topic of bounce and grinds, the most complex and confusing part of the wedge formula. Many top brands offer a complex array of sole configurations, all of them admittedly specialized to a particular kind of lie or turf conditions, and/or a particular divot pattern.

But if you don’t play the same turf all the time, and make the same size divot on every swing, how would you ever figure this out?

The only way is to take any wedge you are considering and play it a few rounds, hitting all the shots you face and observing the results. There’s simply no other way.

So, hopefully this will inspire a lively conversation in our comments section, and I’ll chime in to answer any questions you might have.

And next week, I’ll dive into the rest of the wedge formula. Yes, shafts, grips and specifications are essential, too.

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