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5 things we learned Saturday at the US Open
The Country Club does not suffer loose play. That notion was confirmed over and over on day three of the 2022 US Open in Brookline. I don’t suppose that we have instant access to their scorecards, but I wonder if Ted Ray or Harry Vardon had runs of bogeys like the leaders all seemed to experience today. Scottie Scheffler stood at minus-six when he reached the 11th tee. An airmailed green led to a double, which led to three consecutive bogeys, and a plus-four inward half. Rory McIlroy began the day at four-under par, but opened with three bogeys in his first six holes. The Northern Irishman steadied his game, and played even-par golf throughout the round’s remaining holes. Finally, consider poor Collin Morikawa, the co-leader through 36 holes. His lone, Saturday birdie (at the fifth) was sandwiched between two bogeys and a double. On the inward half, Morikawa endured a bogey-double-par-bogey stretch to post 77 on the day and drop six shots off the lead.
There was a lot of baggage left strewn about Willie Campbell’s course on day three of the 2022 American national championship. Ergo, we have no need to really unpack anything. Instead, let’s attempt to organize this yard sale and delineate the five most important things that we learned on Saturday at the 2022 US Open.
They love it. He loves it. ?@Minwoo27Lee starts his second side with a birdie. #USOpen pic.twitter.com/DkCAlJx0CD
— U.S. Open (USGA) (@usopengolf) June 18, 2022
1. Par, etc.
Seven rounds of sub-par golf were joined by three cards at even par. The Squirrel and the Clyde, with a spritz of Primrose, combined to frustrate and humble the 64 golfers fortunate enough to survive Friday’s cut. Eight holes were cut within 15 feet of an edge. What made the putting greens so challenging was the inconsistency of the hole locations. There was no rhythm to establish, as flagsticks flew left, then right, then fore, then aft. With green speeds in the 12 range all day, and a firmness to equal, there was little margin for error.
Good bogey or bad bogey? #USOpen pic.twitter.com/j9TxHNrqIU
— U.S. Open (USGA) (@usopengolf) June 18, 2022
2. The Amateur Game
The descendants of Ouimet were not immune from the diffulties of Brookline as the weekend arrived. Of the four who made the cut, Sam Bennett posted 74 for the best score. Austin Greaser and Travis Vick each signed for 76, while Stewart Hagestad posted 79. With 18 holes remaining in the tournament, Vick holds a two-shot advantage over Greaser for the vaunted title of low amateur, with Bennett one more shot back. Hagestad sits seven behind Vick, but will at least walk away with a medal for surviving the cut as a non-professional. Will the swallow stalk Vick’s ball again on Sunday? Anything is possible around The Country Club’s composite course.
#EFEfotos | Una golondrina común sobrevuela la bola del estadounidense Travis Vick. #USOpen pic.twitter.com/lUloY8yIdd
— EFE Deportes (@EFEdeportes) June 18, 2022
3. Who went away?
Let’s begin with Morikawa. He dropped from tied for first to tied for 17th. He’s just six shots back of the leaders, but will need something in the mid 60s on Sunday to make a run. How about two-time US Open champion Brooks Koepka? Only the greatest of the greats truly learn how to control the tournament. Mickey Wright did, as did Jack Nicklaus and Tiger Woods. Brooks is proving to be the Retief Goosen of his generation: he had the answer, then he lost the answer. Five-over par on Saturday sent Koepka away to 40th, nine back of the lead. For Joel Dahmen, the other co-leader, things were neither as good nor as bad as they were for Morikawa. Dahmen had zero birdies on Saturday, but he had just four bogies, and all came on the front nine. For a first appearance in the a final major group on the weekend, Dahmen’s performance was hardly the worst ever. Can he rebound on Sunday to contend? What a story it would be.
That's what you call an ????????? bounceback.@collin_morikawa follows up his bogey with a birdie to get back to 5 under. #USOpen pic.twitter.com/rtoTmKrDti
— U.S. Open (USGA) (@usopengolf) June 18, 2022
4. Who jumped up?
Let’s begin with those we did not expect. Adam Hadwin, the first-round leader, posted 70 to find himself two back of the lead. Keegan Bradley went minus-one on Saturday, and joined Hadwin at two-under par. Scottie Schefler had the lead to himself on a few occasions on day three, but had a wretched stretch (think five over in four holes) to start the inward half, and landed at the same figure. Defending champion Jon Rahm also assumed ownership of the lead, but it didn’t last. Rahm reached the last at minus-five, drove into the rough, moved his second all of two yards, and closed with double bogey for three-under par. The most impressive moves came from Will Zalatoris (67 for -4) and Matt Fitzpatrick (68 for -4), who will tee off in the final group on Sunday.
He's won here before. ? @MattFitz94 moves to the top of the board. #USOpen pic.twitter.com/Q2op16qEEn
— U.S. Open (USGA) (@usopengolf) June 18, 2022
5. What’s going to happen?
Honestly, no one has any idea. No single competitor has separated himself from the field, in any capacity. Rahm should win, because he did it last year. Except, he did it out west, on a PGA Tour course that doubles as US Open venue once a decade, so he won’t. Fitzpatrick did it here in 2013 at the US Amateur, except brother Alex isn’t on the bag this time, so he won’t. Scheffler appears to have figured out how to play four great rounds in a major (see Masters 2022) except Augusta National doesn’t metamorphose on a daily bases like US Open courses do, so he won’t.
Take a look at the stats leaders, and what you’ll see is total irrelevance. The top four in greens in regulation are T7, T11, T25, and T11. The top four in fairways hit are T7, T45, T11, and T4. The top four in putting are T40, T49, T17, and T4. You could say Dahmen or Scheffler or any number of other golfers, and you might be right or wrong. Soooooooo…
Here are our top three to win on Sunday, in no particular order, for no particular reason.
- Sam Burns
- Gary Woodland
- Rory McIlroy
The last time @FitzAlex99 walked around The Country Club, he was 14 and caddying for his brother @MattFitz94 in the #USAmateur.
Now he's back cheering on his brother in a #USOpen! pic.twitter.com/Us0iRjYMIv
— U.S. Open (USGA) (@usopengolf) June 18, 2022
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Morning 9: Tiger confirms playing schedule | Player: This caused Tiger’s downfall
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Tour Photo Galleries
Photos from the 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
GolfWRX is on site this week in McKinney, Texas, at the 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson (FKA the AT&T Byron Nelson).
Last year at TPC Craig Ranch, Jason Day ended a five-year winless streak. J-Day is in the field again, as are Jordan Spieth, Tom Kim, and Will Zalatoris.
We have our usual assortment of general galleries, WITBs, and pullout albums for your perusal. As always, we’ll continue to add links to additional albums as they make their way to us from the Lone Star State.
Check out links to all our photos below.
General Albums
- 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson – Monday #1
- 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson – Monday #2
- 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson – Tuesday #1
- 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson – Tuesday #2
- 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson – Tuesday #3
WITB Albums
- Pierceson Coody – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Kris Kim – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- David Nyfjall – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Adrien Dumont de Chassart – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Jarred Jetter – North Texas PGA Section Champ – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Richy Werenski – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Wesley Bryan – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Parker Coody – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Peter Kuest – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Blaine Hale, Jr. – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Kelly Kraft – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Rico Hoey – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
Pullout Albums
- Adam Scott’s 2 new custom L.A.B. Golf putters – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Scotty Cameron putters – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Ben Griffin playing Maxfli golf ball
See what GolfWRXers are saying in the forums.
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News
Vincenzi’s 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson betting preview: International talent to shine
As anticipation mounts for the 2024 PGA Championship at Valhalla in a few weeks, the PGA Tour makes a pit stop in McKinney, Texas to play The CJ CUP Byron Nelson.
Last year was the third time TPC Craig Ranch hosted the Byron Nelson. Prior to 2021, the event was held at Trinity Forest Golf Club in Dallas.
TPC Craig Ranch is a 7,414-yard par-71 that features Bentgrass greens. The event historically plays relatively easy, and that has remained the case in the three editions at TPC Craig Ranch.
The course structure may provide some additional intrigue with the par-3 17th featuring a stadium setup called “Ranch 17” which is reminiscent of the 16th hole at TPC Scottsdale. The course also has both long and difficult par-4s mixed with drivable par-4s, which should create some exciting moments.
There are 156 golfers in the field this week, and many stars will be taking the week off to prepare for 2023’s second major championship in a few weeks and a “signature event” at Quail Hollow next week. Notable players in the field include Jordan Spieth, Jason Day, Sungjae Im, Stephan Jaeger, Tom Kim, Si Woo Kim, Min Woo Lee, Alex Noren, Adam Scott and Will Zalatoris.
Past Winners of the AT&T Byron Nelson
- 2023: Jason Day (-23 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2022: K.H. Lee (-26 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2021: K.H. Lee (-25 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2019: Sung Kang (-23)
- 2018: Aaron Wise (-23)
- 2017: Billy Horschel (-12)
- 2016: Sergio Garcia (-15)
- 2015: Steven Bowditch (-18)
Key Stats at TPC Craig Ranch
Let’s take a look at five key metrics for TPC Craig Ranch to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Approach remains the best measure of current form.
Hot iron play will be at a premium this week. Last year, Jason Day gained 6.4 strokes on approach, which was fourth in the field. In 2022, K.H. Lee was ninth in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining 5.2 strokes. In his 2021 victory, he was second in the field and gained 8.3 strokes on the field in the category.
Strokes Gaines: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds
- Tom Hoge (+1.12)
- Keith Mitchell (+1.02)
- Henrik Norlander (+0.99)
- Ryan Moore (+0.98)
- Ben Martin (0.80)
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Fairways are wide at TPC Craig Ranch.
Distance will certainly be helpful, and there aren’t too many difficult holes on the course. Golfers who put themselves in position off of the tee this week should have a sizable advantage.
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Over Past 24 Rounds
- Peter Kuest (+0.93)
- Kevin Daugherty (+0.91)
- Alejandro Tosti (+0.83)
- Keith Mitchell (+0.82)
- Kevin Tway (+0.74)
Birdie or Better %
There aren’t many hazards on the course, and all of the par-5s should be reachable in two for the majority of the players in the field. I am anticipating a birdie fest, and this statistic should be helpful in finding the birdie-makers.
Birdie or Better % Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Wesley Bryan (31%)
- Kelly Kraft (26.2%)
- Peter Kuest (25.9%)
- Matti Schmid (25.7%
- Jimmy Stanger (25.2%)
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
Many golfers on TOUR have some major putting surface variance in their statistics and prefer Bentgrass to other surfaces.
Bentgrass is common in Texas, and we often see golfers who play well in Texas continue to do so, finding a great feel around the greens.
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass) Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Maverick McNealy (+0.92)
- Aaron Baddeley (+0.87)
- Callum Tarren (+0.86)
- Harry Hall (+0.81)
- Nick Hardy (+0.69)
Course History
This statistic will tell us which players have performed the best at TPC Craig Ranch over the past three seasons.
Course History Over Past 12 Rounds:
- Jordan Spieth (+2.69)
- K.H. Lee (+2.59)
- Seamus Power (+1.84)
- Ryan Palmer (+1.76)
- Adam Scott (+1.72)
CJ CUP Byron Nelson Model Rankings
Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: OTT (24%), Birdie or Better % (18%), Course History (17%) and SG: Putting Bentgrass (16%).
- Alex Noren
- Adam Scott
- Keith Mitchell
- Si Woo Kim
- Stephen Jaeger
- Jordan Spieth
- Jhonnatan Vegas
- Nate Lashley
- Brice Garnett
- Tom Hoge
2024 CJ CUP Byron Nelson Picks
Byeong Hun An +3000 (DraftKings)
Byeong Hun put together an excellent performance at The Masters, finishing T16, which ties his best ever finish at a major championship (also T16 at 2019 U.S. Open). The South Korean gained 9.16 strokes from tee to green, which ranked 2nd in the field behind only the champion, Scottie Scheffler.
An’s next start at Harbour Town didn’t go as well (67th), but he still had a fantastic ball striking week. The 32-year-old bled strokes both around and on the greens, which was his eventual undoing. In his past three starts, An has gained significant strokes on the field both off the tee and on approach.
Benny had a strong start at last year’s Byron Nelson, finishing in a tie for 14th. With limited challenges on the course, he shouldn’t have to do much scrambling. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 17th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 17th in the field in birdie or better percentage. The putter is up and down per usual, but his ceiling putting weeks with his LAB Golf putter in 2024 are higher than they’ve been in past seasons.
An is starting to become my “white whale” of the PGA Tour, but I believe in his talent and TPC Craig Ranch is a course that should suit his excellent tee to green play.
Mackenzie Hughes +5500 (FanDuel)
Mackenzie Hughes is quietly putting together a very good season. He finished in a tie for 3rd at the Valspar Championship and followed that up with a T14 at the Texas Children’s Houston Open.
In his past 36 rounds in Texas, the Canadian ranks 5th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total. Last year, he finished in a tie for 14th at this event and gained strokes putting and off the tee. Mackenzie played well that week despite being in extremely poor form. He missed two cuts in a row prior to the event, and four consecutive cuts immediately after. His irons were off that week, but in 2024, we’ve seen an improvement in Hughes’ approach game. He now comes to the event playing some steady golf. He’s gained strokes on approach in four of his past five events and is hitting the ball very well from tee to green.
Hughes has two victories on the PGA Tour, both coming in relatively low-scoring affairs (-17 in each). He will need to go a bit deeper to win the CJ Cup Byron Nelson but has the type of putter that can keep pace in a birdie barrage.
Seamus Power +7000 (FanDuel)
After struggling over the past few seasons with injuries, Seamus Power seems as if he is rounding back into the form that made him a really consistent player on the PGA Tour.
Power finished T12 in his most recent start at the RBC Heritage, which is encouraging considering it was a “signature event” with a very strong field. For the week, the Irishman gained 4.4 strokes on approach and 2.8 strokes putting, which is the combination he’s used in the past to contend on Tour.
In his three trips to TPC Craig Ranch, Power is yet to finish outside of the top-20, with his best finish being a T9 in 2019. He ranks 4th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course. The 37-year-old thrives on easy tracks and has won in 2021 (Barbasol Championship) and 2022 (Butterfield Bermuda) on easier layouts with weaker fields.
Power has the game to go extremely low and I believe he can get back in the winner’s circle for the third time in four years.
Chan Kim +10000 (FanDuel)
Chan Kim has been striking the ball beautifully this season and is a proven winner with two wins on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2023 as well as eight career Japan Tour wins.
At last week’s Zurich Classic, Kim and his partner Doug Ghim finished in a tie for 28th. Prior to that, the South Korean T14 at the Valero Texas Open and T6 at the Corales Puntacana Championship. His success this season in Texas as well as he propensity to play his best golf on the PGA Tour’s easier courses make him and ideal fit for TPC Craig Ranch.
2024 has given plenty of longshot winners on the PGA Tour, and with a birdie fest like this, I believe there’s a strong chance we get another this week in McKinney, Texas.
Alejandro Tosti +10000 (FanDuel)
Alejandro Tosti is one of the most polarizing players on the PGA Tour thus far in the 2024 season. His antics can rub many the wrong way, but he’s shown on a few occasions that he has what it takes to compete in Tour events.
This season, Tosti has been elite off the tee. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 2nd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. The Argentine hits it long and straight, which works at any course on earth. He got a taste of contention a few starts ago at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, finishing in a tie for 2nd place.
Tosti had a fantastic year in 2023 on the Korn Ferry Tour, where going low is a prerequisite to success. If this turns to a shootout, which it likely will, the 27-year-old has the ability to set the pace. Tosti will look to become the second Argentine to win in Texas in the past two seasons after Emiliano Grillo emerged victorious at last year’s Charles Schwab Challenge.
C.T. Pan +15000 (FanDuel)
Outside of a T3 at the Mexico Open, C.T. Pan doesn’t have strong results this season in terms of finishes. However, over his past two starts, Pan’s iron play has come alive. At The Players, he gained 6.6 strokes on approach. At the Valero Texas Open, he gained 3.7. At last week’s Zurich Classic, Pan and his partner Kevin Yu finished T28. For a player who can get extremely hot with his scoring clubs, I believe he’s playing better than the results have shown over the past month or so.
Last season, Pan finished 4th at TPC Craig Ranch and was spectacular across all the major stat categories. In his past 36 qualifying rounds, he ranks 16th in Strokes Gained: Total in Texas.
Pan has won on the PGA Tour at the RBC Heritage and is always a player that I believe has what it takes to win on a Sunday if he finds himself in contention.
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Khashoggi~words have consequences
Jun 18, 2022 at 11:10 pm
6. Whole lotta choking goin on.