Opinion & Analysis

2022 Masters: Best prop bets

Published

2 years ago

Apr 6, 2022

Jason Daniels

Funny ol’ game.

While we all look forward to majors, particularly the nuances of Augusta, the limited field causes its own problems.

With so much set in stone and so many proven formulae, it’s difficult to look beyond the obvious 20 or so, most of whom will take up a place inside the top-10, leaving us with very little.

Still, after a couple of enjoyable weeks, let’s see if we can add to wins at the Corales and Texas Open and make it a hat-trick.

Xander Schauffele Top 10 finish +185

As I bang my head against the wall each year, bemoaning my outright wager on Xander, folk chuckle and mention how he ‘can’t’ win anymore.

That debate is for another page, but in a limited field that requires form in majors and quality approach play, he is tough to oppose in a place market.

Not only is Xander playing well enough to compete, his record here and in Georgia, as a whole, is undeniably impressive.

East Lake is clearly the 28-year-old’s first love, with two wins, a runner-up, third and seventh places from five starts, but he repeats form at a couple of other places, including at the WM Pheonix Open, where he had chances to win in each of the last two years before finishing tied-second and tied-third, respectively.

At Augusta, the 28-year-old has a second and third from four attempts, the runner-up to Tiger Woods in 2019 courtesy of an impressive final round 68, whilst he held every chance last season until the 16th hole on Payday, where a triple-bogey ruined his chance of winning.

In between, an untimely rain delay put him off his stride during the softer conditions of the ‘lockdown’ Masters, and ultimately he did well to finish well inside the top-20 after making some strange decisions during a rain break during the second round.

The former top-10 amateur was, like so many, baffled by Kiawah Island last year but otherwise has a 16th at Bethpage Black and a 10th at Harding Park where, at both, he was never outside the top-20 at any stage. And he can boast even better at the US Open.

Only a victory is missing from Xander’s profile at the toughest of the US majors, with a record that reads 7/5/3/6/5, and in-running punters should note that in four of his five attempts at the title he has been closer at the end of Sunday play than he was at any stage.

Currently ranking in the top six for his approaches from 50 to 125, 100 to 125 and 175 to 200 yards, it seems that it is only his mental approach that’s the difference between another place and the big win.

For this bet to cop, though, the world ranked number 10 merely has to add an impressive 10th top-10 (how many 10s can one have?) from 19 major starts.

Paul Casey Top 20 +200

Playing arguably the best golf of his career at 44, the Englishman would surely be a few points shorter in all markets but for a slight injury worry.

Casey has been continuing some impressive ball-striking, consistently appearing in the top echelons of the tee-to-green stats. Indeed, in six completed events since the Dubai Championship in November, he has ranked in the top-10 four times, whilst at The Players his strong iron play led to being just inside the top-15.

Go back to 2020, around when the run starts and Casey boasts 10 front-page finishes that included a three-event run from Pebble Beach to Bay Hill and Sawgrass, while he also recorded a top-5 at Kiawah Island, The Olympics and at St Jude. All that leaving out a tied-seventh at the US Open at Torrey Pines.

The latest results have seen ‘Case’ finish 15th at Riviera, 72nd at Bay Hill (was sixth at halfway before the weather came in), and third at Sawgrass, an event that again was badly weather-affected and one that clearly took its toll and caused him to withdraw from last week’s Valspar.

For those that haven’t seen, the 19-time professional winner was extremely unlucky down the stretch at The Players, his perfect tee-shot finding the bottom of a pitch mark at the final par-5, and although the result on paper is still not far off being top-class, it could, and should, have been an even better guide to his chance at The Masters.

Results in majors? Five top-10 finishes and three further top-20s at Augusta; two top-7 finishes at the U.S Open with the last five years reading T7/T17/T21/T16/26, and a pair of top-4s in the last two runnings of the USPGA.

Looking at the Valspar, the event itself is an excellent guide to Augusta, with Vijay Singh, Jordan Spieth and Charl Schwartzel winning both, whilst the likes of Jim Furyk, KJ Choi and Retief Goosen have strong places at each.

Casey, of course, went back-to-back at Copperhead in 2018 and 2019, preceding Sam Burns, who completed the feat over the last two years. The younger man is making his debut here, so is instantly red-lined, but Casey, now world ranked 25, has five top-10s and a further three top-20 finishes in 15 starts at Augusta.

He is keen to show the younger brigade that he can still hack it – after all, he was just behind Collin Morikawa in the 2020 PGA and could have beaten Cam Smith at Sawgrass – so it’s all about fitness.

Reports suggest he is moving absolutely fine this week, and he has already dismissed claims he was ‘injured’ – “Purely, it’s a thing when you get to your 40s. But that’s I guess what’s causing the pain in the spasms up the back. I’ve had it, I’ve probably had this like four, five times in 20 years, so it’s not an injury, it’s just, what is it? Fatigue? (It) could be back from the Players and the cold weather and all sorts of stuff and traveling.”

Padraig Harrington Top Senior +145

Bernhard Langer Top Senior +300

The market for top senior may well have eight runners, but, in reality, can be cut down to two.

Start with a few easy deletions, all of whom will be 100-yards off the pace from the tee peg:

Sandy Lyle, winner in 1988 but with 10 missed cuts here in his last 12 starts and doing nothing of note on the Champions Tour; Larry Mize, just as bad around here with three mid-50 finishes and nine missed-cuts in 12, and Jose-Maria Olazabal, better than those two but another too short off the tee and with no claim to doing anything bar miss the cut on a wet, long, Augusta track.

Mike Weir is a fourth that is far too short off the tee to count in this grade and whilst Vijay Singh has a handful of mid-20/30 finishes in the mid-2010s, latest efforts here have seen rounds of 76, 78 and three scores of 80, and current form is flailing.

Then there were three.

Freddie Couples went through a stage from 2010 to 2017 when top-20 backers were in clover but, as the event has increasingly relied on length, his frailties have come to the fore, particularly a career-long back problem that hinders his movement and is worse in damp weather. Having played just once in October and November, this is surely close to a last hurrah.

The column is here to make a profit, and whilst the 50-year-old Irishman is much preferred in this market after a host of splendid efforts, it’s hard to forget how Langer continues to churn out performances that often widely separate him from his peers.

Fourteen years the older man, Langer remains metronomic from tee-to-green and continues to win trophies and seasonal championships.

In 2021, the 64-year-old won the Charles Schwab Cup for the fifth time in seven years (six in total), whilst in 2022 he lists one win, a runner-up, eighth and 10th in just five starts, his last win coming at 64 years and five months – a record for the oldest winner on the Champions Tour.

Having made the cut at Augusta in three of the last four seasons, Langer looks the only danger to Harrington, rightly a short priced favourite.

Lest we forget Phil Mickelson winning the PGA at 50 years of age – why can’t Pod do the same at Augusta?

Yeah, ok, I know.

The three-time major winner comes here in significant form, with high finishes in better events to those his rivals compete in and all summed up with his current world ranking, some 1100 places higher than his principal rival in this market!

Tied-fourth behind Phil at Kiawah before tied-18th in the Scottish Open reads different level, but 2022 form is just as convincing. Over the last six months, Pod has tied in 12th behind Thomas Pieters in Portugal and tied ninth behind Viktor Hovland in Dubai – convinced yet?

The midfield finish at Bay Hill would win this market by a mile, whilst he warmed up for this with a runner-up last weekend on the Champions Tour, miles ahead of Langer.

Pod can still mix it off the tee at the higher level and still possesses the short game that keeps him alongside the younger players.

Whilst he hasn’t payed here since 2015, he looks refreshed after the pressure of being Ryder Cup captain and says he isn’t here to make up the numbers.

Making the cut might not be enough for him, but it may well be all he needs to do to win this market.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s LIV Golf Singapore betting preview: Course specialist ready to thrive once again

Published

4 days ago

Apr 30, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

After another strong showing in Australia, LIV Golf will head to Sentosa Golf Club in Singapore looking to build off of what was undoubtedly their best event to date.

Sentosa Golf Club sits on the southern tip of Singapore and is one of the most beautiful courses in the world. The course is more than just incredible scenically; it was also rated 55th in Golf Digest’s top-100 courses in 2022-2023 and has been consistently regarded as one of the best courses in Asia. Prior to being part of the LIV rotation, the course hosted the Singapore Open every year since 2005.

Sentosa Golf Club is a par 71 measuring 7,406 yards. The course will require precise ball striking and some length off the tee. It’s possible to go low due to the pristine conditions, but there are also plenty of hazards and difficult spots on the course that can bring double bogey into play in a hurry. The Bermudagrass greens are perfectly manicured, and the course has spent millions on the sub-air system to keep the greens rolling fast. I spoke to Asian Tour player, Travis Smyth, who described the greens as “the best [he’s] ever played.”

Davis Love III, who competed in a Singapore Open in 2019, also gushed over the condition of the golf course.

“I love the greens. They are fabulous,” the 21-time PGA Tour winner said.

Love III also spoke about other aspects of the golf course.

“The greens are great; the fairways are perfect. It is a wonderful course, and it’s tricky off the tee.”

“It’s a long golf course, and you get some long iron shots. It takes somebody hitting it great to hit every green even though they are big.”

As Love III said, the course can be difficult off the tee due to the length of the course and the trouble looming around every corner. It will take a terrific ball striking week to win at Sentosa Golf Club.

In his pre-tournament press conference last season, Phil Mickelson echoed many of the same sentiments.

“To play Sentosa effectively, you’re going to have a lot of shots from 160 to 210, a lot of full 6-, 7-, 8-iron shots, and you need to hit those really well and you need to drive the ball well.”

Golfers who excel from tee to green and can dial in their longer irons will have a massive advantage this week.

Stat Leaders at LIV Golf Adelaide:

Fairways Hit

1.) Louis Oosthuizen

2.) Anirban Lahiri

3.) Jon Rahm

4.) Brendan Steele

5.) Cameron Tringale

Greens in Regulation

1.) Brooks Koepka

2.) Brendan Steele

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Cameron Tringale

5.) Anirban Lahiri

Birdies Made

1.) Brendan Steele

2.) Dean Burmester

3.) Thomas Pieters

4.) Patrick Reed

5.) Carlos Ortiz

LIV Golf Individual Standings:

1.) Joaquin Niemann

2.) Jon Rahm

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Louis Oosthuizen

5.) Abraham Ancer

LIV Golf Team Standings:

1.) Crushers

2.) Legion XIII

3.) Torque

4.) Stinger GC

5.) Ripper GC

LIV Golf Singapore Picks

Sergio Garcia +3000 (DraftKings)

Sergio Garcia is no stranger to Sentosa Golf Club. The Spaniard won the Singapore Open in 2018 by five strokes and lost in a playoff at LIV Singapore last year to scorching hot Talor Gooch. Looking at the course setup, it’s no surprise that a player like Sergio has played incredible golf here. He’s long off the tee and is one of the better long iron players in the world when he’s in form. Garcia is also statistically a much better putter on Bermudagrass than he is on other putting surfaces. He’s putt extremely well on Sentosa’s incredibly pure green complexes.

This season, Garcia has two runner-up finishes, both of them being playoff losses. Both El Camaleon and Doral are courses he’s had success at in his career. The Spaniard is a player who plays well at his tracks, and Sentosa is one of them. I believe Sergio will get himself in the mix this week. Hopefully the third time is a charm in Singapore.

Paul Casey +3300 (FanDuel)

Paul Casey is in the midst of one of his best seasons in the five years or so. The results recently have been up and down, but he’s shown that when he’s on a golf course that suits his game, he’s amongst the contenders.

This season, Casey has finishes of T5 (LIV Las Vegas), T2 (LIV Hong Kong), and a 6th at the Singapore Classic on the DP World Tour. At his best, the Englishman is one of the best long iron players in the world, which makes him a strong fit for Sentosa. Despite being in poor form last season, he was able to fire a Sunday 63, which shows he can low here at the course.

It’s been three years since Casey has won a tournament (Omega Dubai Desert Classic in 2021), but he’s been one of the top players on LIV this season and I think he can get it done at some point this season.

Mito Pereira +5000 (Bet365)

Since Mito Pereira’s unfortunate demise at the 2022 PGA Championship, he’s been extremely inconsistent. However, over the past few months, the Chilean has played well on the International Series as well as his most recent LIV start. Mito finished 8th at LIV Adelaide, which was his best LIV finish this season.

Last year, Pereira finished 5th at LIV Singapore, shooting fantastic rounds of 67-66-66. It makes sense why Mito would like Sentosa, as preeminent ball strikers tend to rise to the challenge of the golf course. He’s a great long iron player who is long and straight off the tee.

Mito has some experience playing in Asia and is one of the most talented players on LIV who’s yet to get in the winner’s circle. I have questions about whether or not he can come through once in contention, but if he gets there, I’m happy to roll the dice.

Andy Ogletree +15000 (DraftKings)

Andy Ogletree is a player I expected to have a strong 2024 but struggled early in his first full season on LIV. After failing to crack the top-25 in any LIV event this year, the former U.S. Amateur champion finally figured things out, finished in a tie for 3rd at LIV Adelaide.

Ogletree should be incredible comfortable playing in Singapore. He won the International Series Qatar last year and finished T3 at the International Series Singapore. The 26-year-old was arguably the best player on the Asian Tour in 2023 and has been fantastic in the continent over the past 18 months.

If Ogletree has indeed found form, he looks to be an amazing value at triple-digit odds.

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Lessons from the worst golf instructor in America

Published

4 days ago

Apr 30, 2024

Brendan Ryan

In Tampa, there is a golf course that boasts carts that do not work, a water range, and a group of players none of which have any chance to break 80. The course is overseen by a staff of crusty men who have succeeded at nothing in life but ending up at the worst-run course in America. However, this place is no failure. With several other local courses going out of business — and boasting outstanding greens — the place is booked full.

While I came for the great greens, I stayed to watch our resident instructor; a poor-tempered, method teacher who caters to the hopeless. At first, it was simply hilarious. However, after months of listening and watching, something clicked. I realized I had a front-row seat to the worst golf instructor in America.

Here are some of my key takeaways.

Method Teacher

It is widely accepted that there are three types of golf instructors: system teachers, non-system teachers, and method teachers. Method teachers prescribe the same antidote for each student based on a preamble which teachers can learn in a couple day certification.

Method teaching allows anyone to be certified. This process caters to the lowest caliber instructor, creating the illusion of competency. This empowers these underqualified instructors with the moniker of “certified” to prey on the innocent and uninformed.

The Cult of Stack and Jilt

The Stack and Tilt website proudly boasts, “A golfer swings his hands inward in the backswing as opposed to straight back to 1) create power, similar to a field goal kicker moving his leg in an arc and 2) to promote a swing that is in-to-out, which produces a draw (and eliminates a slice).”

Now, let me tell you something, there is this law of the universe which says “energy can either be created or destroyed,” so either these guys are defying physics or they have no idea what they are taking about. Further, the idea that the first move of the backswing determines impact is conjecture with a splash of utter fantasy.

These are the pontifications of a method — a set of prescriptions applied to everyone with the hope of some success through the placebo effect. It is one thing for a naive student to believe, for a golf instructor to drink and then dispel this Kool-Aid is malpractice.

Fooled by Randomness

In flipping a coin, or even a March Madness bet, there is a 50-50 chance of success. In golf, especially for new players, results are asymmetric. Simply put: Anything can happen. The problem is that when bad instructors work with high handicappers, each and every shot gets its own diagnosis and prescription. Soon the student is overwhelmed.

Now here’s the sinister thing: The overwhelming information is by design. In this case, the coach is not trying to make you better, they are trying to make you reliant on them for information. A quasi Stockholm syndrome of codependency.

Practice

One of the most important scientists of the 20th century was Ivan Pavlov. As you might recall, he found that animals, including humans, could be conditioned into biological responses. In golf, the idea of practice has made millions of hackers salivate that they are one lesson or practice session from “the secret.”

Sunk Cost

The idea for the worst golf instructor is to create control and dependency so that clients ignore the sunk cost of not getting better. Instead, they are held hostage by the idea that they are one lesson or tip away from unlocking their potential.

Cliches

Cliches have the effect of terminating thoughts. However, they are the weapon of choice for this instructor. Add some hyperbole and students actually get no information. As a result, these players couldn’t play golf. When they did, they had no real scheme. With no idea what they are doing, they would descend into a spiral of no idea what to do, bad results, lower confidence, and running back to the lesson tee from more cliches.

The fact is that poor instruction is about conditioning players to become reliant members of your cult. To take away autonomy. To use practice as a form of control. To sell more golf lessons not by making people better but through the guise that without the teacher, the student can never reach their full potential. All under the umbrella of being “certified” (in a 2-day course!) and a melee of cliches.

This of course is not just happening at my muni but is a systemic problem around the country and around the world, the consequences of which are giving people a great reason to stop playing golf. But hey, at least it’s selling a lot of golf balls…

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

Published

2 weeks ago

Apr 22, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

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