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Tokyo Olympics men’s golf betting tips and selections
59 golfers will be making the trek to Tokyo this week for the men’s Olympic golf competition. This will be the fourth golf event in the history of the Olympics. It was played in Paris in 1900, St. Louis in 1904, and then after a 112-year hiatus, Olympic golf returned in 2016, as Justin Rose took home the gold medal in Rio. The Olympics will be a four-day stroke play event with no cut, similar to many World Golf Championships and shorter field events that make up the Asian swing of the PGA Tour.
While there is no hard data from professional competition on the host course, Kasumigaseki Country Club, we can responsibly draw comparisons to other courses that host professional tournaments. Kasumigaseki is a Charles Allison design with bent-grass greens and zoysia fairways. Famed architect Tom Fazio gave the course a total facelift in 2016, and from all of the course flyovers and information we have at our disposal, it features similar elements to other Fazio designs/re-designs such as Firestone Country Club, Quail Hollow, and Shadow Creek.
Playing as a par 71 and tipping out to 7,447 yards on the scorecard, length off the tee will certainly help here. Along with distance, I am primarily looking for players with experience navigating large and undulating greens, as well as elite long iron snipers and those who are capable of going low in benign scoring conditions.
Let’s dig into my outright selections!
Olympics men’s golf betting picks
Viktor Hovland (12-1, FanDuel Sportsbook)
The Norwegian sensation rated out as the number one player in my model this week due to his elite long iron play, length off the tee, expertise with his wedges, and ability to make birdies in bunches. Over his last 36 rounds, Hovland ranks inside the top-10 in strokes gained approach, strokes gained off the tee, proximity from 200 yards plus, proximity from 125-150 yards, and birdies or better gained.
With a 12th-place finish at Shadow Creek in the fall, and a third-place finish at Quail Hollow this spring, the two-time PGA Tour winner should be right at home on another tree-lined Tom Fazio course featuring large and undulating bent-grass greens.
Patrick Reed (16-1, DraftKings Sportsbook)
While concerns about Patrick Reed’s recent travel schedule are certainly valid, I’ve found reason to believe that the Olympics has his upmost attention. Reed is only in the field this week as a result of Bryson DeChambeau’s withdrawal due to a positive COVID-19 test, and despite learning this while in the midst of competing in the 3M Open, Reed jumped at the opportunity to represent his country.
The man deemed “Captain America” for his Ryder Cup heroics, has also experienced some incredible success on bent-grass greens, and tops this entire field in three-putt avoidance. While Augusta National is far from a perfect comp to Kasumigaseki, Reed always plays well at the Masters, and he is coming off a 14th-place finish at Sherwood in October and a sixth-place finish at Quail Hollow in April. I expect the nine-time PGA Tour winner to certainly be a factor come Sunday afternoon in Tokyo.
Shane Lowry (22-1, DraftKings Sportsbook)
After an understandable hangover from his life-changing 2019 Open Championship win at Royal Portrush, Shane Lowry is back to playing some incredible golf this season. The Irishman has made the cut in every major this year, and recorded top-15 finishes at The Players, PGA Championship, Memorial, and most recently, The Open Championship in his title defense. One through-line we can draw from Lowry’s historical results is that he always plays his best golf on the biggest stage.
Lowry is a bankable selection in stronger-field events because of his elite approach play. The five-time worldwide winner has gained over 1.3 strokes on approach in every measured start since March. With a win already under his belt at the Fazio re-designed Firestone, I expect Lowry to add a gold medal to his already impressive resume.
Abraham Ancer (25-1, DraftKings SportsBook)
Ancer is a player who I rarely bet as he has still yet to record his first PGA Tour victory. With that being said, this feels like a logical breakthrough spot for the University of Oklahoma product.
Ancer has already finished runner-up at Quail Hollow this year, and I love the idea of a soft Augusta as a comp course for Kasumigaseki, where Ancer contended as well. More recently, Ancer has also recorded top-10 finishes at the Valspar, Travelers, and PGA Championship. His ball striking remains elite, and he is one of the better putters in the field as well, ranking sixth in strokes gained putting and third in three-putt avoidance over his last 36 rounds. Bent-grass has also historically been his best surface. I firmly believe that Ancer will be in the mix this weekend in Tokyo.
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Morning 9: Scheffler repeats at Players | Monday PIF meeting | McIlroy takes another shot at Norman
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Tour Rundown: Matching luggage for Scheffler
For those of us from another generation, the disruption of the golf world that we knew well is both exciting and unsettling. The two most potent disruptors are rival golf leagues, not unlike the turmoil seen in the NCAA, and the Anchorman-style gangs of golf reporters. Reconciled to a past era are the dominance of the U.S. PGA Tour and the monthly golf magazines. One element that will not change, at any time in the foreseeable future, however, is the sanctity of the grand slam and golf’s four male major championships. While the LPGA and the PGA Tour Champions have seen a light and added fifth and sixth power titles, the men’s game remains staunchly in the 20th century.
This last topic surges in pertinence each March, just before the playing of The Players Championship. Two camps stake tents and run banners up the poll. One cries out for elevation of the PC to major status, while the other digs a trench around its impregnable quadrilateral. My personal take is this: Every four years since 2016, golf is played at the Olympics. Is Olympic Gold the equivalent of a major title? Yes, it is. It comes around every 1,500 days and brings elite golfers together in competition at the most important athletic event and venue. In my mind, Justin Rose and Xander Schauffele earned major titles in Brazil and Japan, as did Inbee Park and Nelly Korda. As for the Players Championship, why not? The field is stronger by ranking than any major event, and the golf course demands every shot that golfers can create.
The Players Championship is so important to the U.S. PGA Tour that all other tours under its umbrella take the week off. No Korn Ferry, no Tour Champions. The LPGA and the DP World Tour follow suit, which shrinks the amount of watchable golf to two events. On that sour note, let’s run down this week’s play, beginning with the Players Championship and ending with the Asian Tour in Macau.
PGA Tour @ Players Championship: matching luggage for Scheffler
Scottie Scheffler is making a bid to be the player of his generation. From the previous one, a fair number have taken leave from traditional competition. The Johnsons, Koepkas, and Reeds from the 1980s no longer play the events that stand the test of time. The born-in-the-90s generation had its first great champion in Jordan Spieth until he took leave of the senses that brought him to golf’s pinnacle. Spieth’s descent ran opposite Scheffler’s rise.
Scottie Scheffler had won nothing on the PGA Tour until February 13th of 2022. He won on that day in Phoenix, then won three more times by the middle of April. One of those wins was the API at Bay Hill. Last week, Scheffler won for a second time at the Orlando course. Last March, Scheffler won his first Players Championship, by five shots over Tyrrell Hatton. On Sunday, Scheffler dived headfirst into a cauldron of fierce competition. Facing challenges from Olympic champion Schauffele, Open champion Brian Harmon, and U.S. Open champion Wyndham Clark, Scheffler breathed. As the only man to reach 20 under par, he earned a second consecutive title at Sawgrass and reminded us that it has been two years since he won the Masters and that he is on a tear.
It all began at the fourth on Sunday for Scheffler. After pars at the opening three holes, Scheffler’s driving wedge from 92 yards landed 20 feet shy of the hole, took one large bounce, then spun left, trickling into the hole for eagle. He followed that incantation with another birdie, then two pars. The stretch from 8 to 12 was where the champion made a statement. His quartet of birdies over that run, brought him to 19-under par and let the pursuing pack know that even lower than the winning 17 under in 2023 would be necessary.
And the trio was game. Harman and Clark both dipped below 70, to reach 19 under at the final pole. Schauffele could not find a similar gear and closed with 70 — 69 would have earned him a playoff with Scheffler. It was the extra gear, the ability to go low when all things mattered, that eleveated the now two-time champion to the top of the podium. In five of his eight tour wins, Scheffler has posted a sub-70 round on day four, and four of those have been 67 or lower.
With elegant precision, Scheffler applied the final thrust at the par-5 16th. He played safely away from Pete’s Pond on the right, into the left greenside bunker at the back of the putting surface. His bunker shot was thing of exquisite accuracy, trickling to a planned stop about 20 inches from the hole. The birdie concluded matters and rang the sort of bell that Dye courses tend to display.
The greenside bunker is not a problem for the defending champ.
Scottie Scheffler’s birdie at 16 moves him back into a share of the lead @THEPLAYERS. pic.twitter.com/aEi7onLZPE
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) March 17, 2024
Asian Tour @ International Series Macau: Catlin earns playoff victory
There are two sorts of golfers that compete on the Asian Tour, which makes no secret of its alliance with the LIV. The first are the AT stalwarts, the ones who play as golfers have always played, with little guarantee and much pride. The others are the ones who compete on the LIV, eschewing both risk and pride for the guaranteed payday. Their deal costs them world ranking points, so they play in AT events, hoping to qualify for golf’s major events.
This week in Macau, one of those LIV golfers shot 60 on Sunday and did not win the tournament. Hard to believe, you say? Aye, but when another golfer shoots 59 in the third round, follows it up with a 65 on day four, then makes overtime birdie twice at the par-five closer, the razor’s edge of great golf is sharpened. Thus did it happen with American John Catlin and Spaniard David Puig.
It was Catlin who signed for 59, and it took a twisting, eagle putt at the last to enshrine the first-ever, sub-60 on the Asian Tour. It was Puig who closed the gap on Sunday with a 60 of his own, which featured a bogey at the lengthy fifth hole, but was followed by seven birdies and an eagle over the next 13 holes. Catlin had a six-feet putt for the regulation win, but missed. In extra time, Puig nearly holed for eagle at 18, then tapped in for birdie. Catlin’s second danced along the OOB perimeter, before ending on an access road. His drop and pitch left him another six feet to remain alive, and this time, he converted.
At the second go-round of the par-5 finisher, Puig found the green in two, but took three putts from nearly 50 feet. Catlin confronted another challenging pitch for his third, and once again, his wedge game won the day. He tapped in for birdie and the win.
5??9?? ? @JohnCatlin59 eagles the 18th to shoot the first 59 on the Asian Tour ?? #whereitsAT #ThisISEverything #InternationalSeries @intseriesgolf pic.twitter.com/RV9gYy1SIp
— Asian Tour (@asiantourgolf) March 16, 2024
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Morning 9: Rory, Xander, Clark share Players lead | Rory on controversial drop | AK misses Macau cut
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