Opinion & Analysis
U.S. Open qualifying and learning from a “bad” round
On May 10, I competed in a local qualifier for the 2021 U.S. Open at Torrey Pines. The local qualifier was held at Barton Hills Country Club in Ann Arbor, Michigan.
You can watch every single shot in the video below.
Spoiler alert, I ended up having one of those disaster type of rounds with an 85 that was good for a missed cut and T-63rd out of 69th place finish. But rather than spending too much time crying over spilled milk, I decided to use it as an opportunity to not only learn something for myself as a pro but also to demonstrate for you some ways in which you might go about holistically analyzing rounds for your own future improvement.
Perspective & confidence
To start, remember to still pat yourself on the back and have some perspective.
“Far better it is to dare mighty things, to win glorious triumphs, even though checkered by failure, then to take rank with those poor spirits, who neither enjoy much nor suffer much, because they live in the gray twilight that knows neither victory nor defeat.” -Unknown
A friend sent me that after my round. Good friend.
Personally, I’ve shot tournament rounds in the 60s. So, an 85 for me at my level feels terrible. Feeling upset, angry, disappointed, frustrated, etc., can happen, but remember it’s important to be a good friend to yourself and do what you can to keep your confidence and attitude up and in a positive place.
If I step back from it all and look from a higher perspective, there are a few little things I can tell myself right off the bat to help me feel better about what happened.
- In nearly every professional tournament, someone typically shoots in the 80s. Bad rounds happen to everyone. Even world-class players are not exempt.
- I had a spell during COVID-19 where I didn’t pick up my clubs for about 6 months, and I hadn’t competed in a tournament for nine months. If tournament and general rust is a thing, this could have been a factor in my performance.
- The conditions were very difficult. We had a 90-minute frost delay, it felt cold, the wind was gusting higher than in the forecast, and the course setup was challenging, with 6 pins cut only 4 paces from the edge of greens (which can lead to a lot of short-sided shots for those that are too aggressive). Normally, a 70 or better would get you through a local qualifier. In this case, no one in the entire field of pros and elite amateurs broke par. In fact, par 70 was the medalist. It was a tough day, and scores were high for everyone, not just me.
- Unfortunately, most golfers will never break 90. Higher skilled players can do good to remember that. I’m reminded of seeing fellow pros on TV who hang their head on an approach shot but the ball still lands on the green and close to the flag, something that most people would be incredibly happy about.
- Forgive and forget fast: It’s just a game and we are all lucky to be playing it!
- “Fail” videos can be entertaining for others to watch!
- Once you find ways to get a little personal perspective, it can be easier to look back at the round objectively and look for actionable items to take going forward to next time.
If you don’t have full round video like what I have above, you can still just think back about the round later that day or the next day or once you’ve calmed down and can assess what happened more clearly.
Anyway, here are a handful of things I’d tell myself in post-round analysis.
Pre-round
For the most part, I did a pretty good job with my pre-round work.
My bag had appropriate distance gapping between clubs, I had a good practice round (and holed out three times during the round), I slept okay the night before, I got to the course with plenty of time to spare to get ready and warm up, I was hydrated, I dressed warm enough for the cold, etc.
There’s not too much I’d change about what I did pre-round except for just getting in more practice/training.
For example, I had only hit balls for an hour a couple days a week indoors in March, and I chipped/putted a little plus played a few rounds in April. Despite not playing much, I was still shooting in the 70s and figured if I had a good day, I might still get through.
Still, more practice would likely have helped me shoot lower. That will be much easier once I decide on a good home golf base, now that my wife and I are getting settled in after our move from DC to Detroit last Halloween.
Off the tee
As you can see, I hit 11/14 (78.6 percent) fairways, which is much better than the PGA Tour average of 59.8 percent. On the three I missed, I was just off the fairway, and I was still in decent position with a clear shot to the green. So, my accuracy and target selection based on my personal shot dispersion patterns were fine.
You can’t tell from the video, but I will let you know that distance-wise I’ve been averaging about 106 or 107 mph with a driver on the course lately. That’s fast enough to compete professionally, albeit on the lower end of tour pro speed, but as someone who has competed and won events and qualifiers in professional long drive with peak speeds in the low 140s, I know there is a lot to gain by hitting longer again.
But how?
My drivers and ball are fine. I’ve tested those and more distance will not likely come from swapping those out.
However, I hadn’t been in the gym for 15 months prior to COVID-19 to do swing speed training. Granted there are some things one can do at home — peruse my articles here on GolfWRX for more about swing speed training, or visit Swing Man Golf — but quite frankly, I just wasn’t getting in the necessary training to swing fast enough for distance to be an advantage like it’s been for me previously.
That’s something anyone can change easily, though, including myself. It’s just a matter of some elbow grease and getting in some smart and consistent swing speed training — and you don’t have to put on 40 pounds to do it!
Technique-wise, I had been experimenting around with several things. Although I’ve shot well with minimal practice doing those things previously, going forward I do want to make some tweaks to get back closer to more of my old Mike Austin-style swing.
Without getting into too much detail, at a high level that would include:
- Changing my grip back
- Narrowing up my stance a bit
- Keep my head from drifting around so much
- Making a longer backswing
- Leveraging more leg power through my skeletal joints
- Using more of a rock-skipping “wind up and throw” type swing motion
- Bringing back a bit more calm in to my game and what my wife described in my old swing as “fierce grace”
Approach shots
Despite hitting tons of fairways, I only hit 5/18 (27.8 percent) greens. That’s terrible by pro standards and nowhere near the 63.9 percent PGA Tour average. I’ve previously hit all 18 greens before.
So, what happened and how do I get those percentages back up?
Strategically, I think I did well. I chose smart targets based on my usual dispersions and only once did I deviate and not trust myself (watch the 15th hole in which 6-iron to the middle was the right play for a dangerous back flag but I greedily hit 5-iron and went long and got short-sided in the back bunker). Aside from that, unfortunately, I was just hitting it so much worse than my typical large sample dispersions that I kept getting short-sided anyway and was otherwise missing in the wrong spots far too much to score low.
As per above off the tee, more distance (and accuracy) from technique and swing speed training will also help my approaches. I’ve experimented playing as the bomb and gouger as well as the shorter accuracy type player. I can tell you from experience that it’s much easier to shoot lower scores when you’ve got power in your bag. Plus, it’s just fun to hit bombs.
Equipment-wise, I have a consistency advantage playing Sterling Irons single-length irons. However, I know from testing that for me I get tighter iron shot dispersions with Project X LZ shafts vs the Wishon Golf S2S Stepless shaft I currently have in my iron heads. I’ve been waiting to swap those out until we move forward with the second generation of Sterling Irons, though. Reach out to me if you are an interested investor.
Around the greens
Pros make 95 percent from three feet and that drops off sharply to 50 percent at around eight feet. So, it’s important to miss in smart spots to be able to hit shots around the greens close to save pars.
My bunker play was solid (watch holes 10, 12 and 15), save the one shot on the 5th hole that I hit a little too far behind the ball and left short. I was just in difficult locations that anyone would’ve had trouble getting up and down. Normally being short sided might come from too aggressive of approach shots, but that wasn’t the case today except that 5-iron approach on 15.
With chipping, I had some difficult lies (which are just part of the game) and was short sided quite a bit as mentioned.
Technically, I noticed I was sometimes “hitting” at my chips a bit. When you instead take a longer swing relying more on gravity and less on human effort, the distance control on feel shots is much more consistent day to day and week to week. That’s easy enough to work on.
I also wasn’t feeling the sharpest, which again could simply come down to just settling on a home course and getting in more practice.
Putting
Normally, I’m as good as anyone on lag putts.
But like my chips around the green, I saw I was “hitting” at some of the putts. As I said, that throws off distance control and consistency.
Getting some work in on being more pendular, per my usual, should take care of those things.
With my putter and ball, I’ve tested both of those and I’m fine in both cases.
Other
Aside from that, I did notice a couple other things I’d tell myself to change.
First, I’d say to drop about 15 pounds. Over my career, I’ve weighed anywhere from about 202 to 236. Currently, I’m sitting close to 230. I know from experience that, although I am healthy where I am, I still like it best when I’m around 210-215 and 13 percent body fat.
Getting back to that is as simple as a sustained caloric cut while keeping up my protein for a little over a month, but that’s easier said than done to commit to doing. I don’t know of anyone that likes doing fat weight cuts!
Lastly, my outfits could use a little work. I forgot to clean up my shoes and I thought they looked a little dirty on camera. I’ve also done focus group color testing and know that dressing entirely in dusty soft autumn colors (cardinal red, burnt orange, olive green, teal blue, turquoise, etc.) work best for me, and black doesn’t really do me any favors. Time to get rid of those old cold weather golf clothes!
Of course, I can perform well without changing either of those things (fat weight or outfits). However, there’s also something to be said about performing better when you are feeling confident and good about oneself.
Okay, hope that gives you a quick sample of helpful things to consider using for analyzing your own performances!
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19th Hole
Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead
The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.
The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.
The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time.
Past Winners at Valspar Championship
- 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
- 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
- 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
- 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
- 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
- 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
- 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
- 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)
In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).
Key Stats For Copperhead
1. Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.
Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)
- Tony Finau (+.90)
- Nick Taylor (+.81)
- Justin Thomas (+.77)
- Greyson Sigg (+.69)
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)
2. Good Drive %
The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.
Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.
Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds
- Brice Garnett (+91.3%)
- Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
- Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
- Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
- Aaron Rai (+89.7%)
3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking
Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.
SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
- Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
- Tony Finau (+1.24)
- Cameron Young (+1.17)
- Doug Ghim (+.95)
4. Bogey Avoidance
With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.
Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.
Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds
- Brice Garnett (+9.0)
- Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
- Austin Cook (+9.7)
- Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
- Greyson Sigg (+10.2)
5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions
Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.
Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds
- Xander Schauffele (+1,71)
- Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
- Cameron Young (+1.27)
- Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
- Justin Suh (+.94)
6. Course History
That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.
Course History Over Past 24 rounds
- Patrick Cantlay (+3.75)
- Sam Burns (+2.49)
- Davis Riley (+2.33)
- Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
- Jordan Spieth (+2.04)
The Valspar Championship Model Rankings
Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).
- Xander Schauffele
- Doug Ghim
- Victor Perez
- Greyson Sigg
- Ryan Moore
- Tony Finau
- Justin Thomas
- Sam Ryder
- Sam Burns
- Lucas Glover
2024 Valspar Championship Picks
Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)
Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.
Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.
Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)
Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.
In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.
Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.
Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)
Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.
In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.
Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.
Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)
Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.
It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.
It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.
Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)
Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.
Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.
In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.
Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.
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Opinion & Analysis
Myrtle Beach, Explored: February in South Carolina
As I gain in experience and age, and familiarity breeds neither contempt nor disdain, I understand why people return to a place. A destination like Myrtle Beach offers a sizable supply and diversity of restaurants, entertainment venues, and shops that are predicated on the tenets of the service industry. Greet your customers with a smile and a kind word, and they will find comfort and assurance. Provide them with a memorable experience and they will suggest your place of business to others.
My first tour of Myrtle Beach took place in the mid-1980s, and consisted of one course: Gator Hole. I don’t remember much from that day, and since Gator Hole closed a decade later, I cannot revisit it to recollect what I’d lost. Since then, I’ve come to the Grand Strand a few times, and been fortunate to never place a course more than once. I’ve seen the Strantz courses to the south and dipped my toe in the North Carolina courses of Calabash. I’ve been to many in the middle, including Dunes, Pine Lakes, Grande Dunes among them.
2024 brought a quartet of new courses, including two at the Barefoot Resort. I’d heard about the North Myrtle Beach four-pack of courses that highlight the Barefoot property, including layouts from Pete Dye, Tom Fazio, Davis Love III, and Greg Norman. I had the opportunity to play and shoot the Dye and Fazio tracks, which means that I’ll have to return to see the other two. Sandwiched between them were the TPC-Myrtle Beach course, also from Tom Fazio, and the Pawley’s Plantation trace, by the hand of Jack Nicklaus. I anticipated a bit of the heroic, and bit of the strategic, and plenty of eye candy. None of those architects would ever be considered a minimalist, so there would be plenty of in-play and out-of-play bunkers and mounds to tantalize the senses.
My nephew arrived a few days early, to screen a few more courses. As a result, you the reader will have an extra quarter of mini-reviews, bringing the total of courses in this piece to eight. It was inconceivable that CJR would play four courses that I had never played nor photographed, but that was the case. His words appear at the end of this piece. We hope that you enjoy the tour.
Main Feature: Two Barefoots, a TPC, and Pawley’s Plantation
What Paul “Pete” Dye brought back from his trips to the United Kingdom, hearkened back to what C.B. MacDonal did, some 65 years prior. There is a way of finding bunkers and fairways, and even green sites, that does not require major industrial work. The Dye course at Barefoot Resorts takes you on a journey over the rumpled terrain of distant places. If there’s one element missing, it’s the creased and turbulent fairways, so often found in England and Ireland. The one tenet of playing a Dye course, is to always aim away from temptation, from where your eyes draw you. Find the safe side of the target, and you’ll probably find your ball. It then stands that you will have a shot for your next attempt. Cut the corner, and you might have need to reload. The Barefoot course begins gently, in terms of distance, but challenges with visual deception. After two brief 4s and a 3, the real work begins. The course is exposed enough, to allow the coastal winds to dance along the fairways. Be ready to keep the ball low and take an extra club or two.
If memory serves, TPCMB is my first trek around a TPC-branded course. It had all the trappings of a tour course, from the welcome, through the clubhouse, to the practice facilities and, of course, the course. TPC-Myrtle Beach is a Tom Fazio design, and if you never visit Augusta National, you’ll now have an idea of what it is like. You play Augusta’s 16th hole twice at TPCMB, and you enjoy it both times. Fazio really likes the pond-left, green-angle-around par three hole, and his two iterations of it are memorable.
You’ll also see those Augusta bunkers, the ones with the manicured edges that drop into a modestly-circular form. What distinguishes these sand pits is the manner in which they rise from the surrounding ground. They are unique in that they don’t resemble the geometric bunkering of a Seth Raynor, nor the organic pits found in origin courses. They are built, make no mistake, and recovery from them is manageable for all levels of bunker wizardry.
If you have the opportunity to play the two Tom Fazio courses back to back, you’ll notice a marked difference in styling. Let me digress for a moment, then circle back with an explanation. It was written that the NLE World Woods course designed by Fazio, Pine Barrens, was an homage to Pine Valley, the legendary, New Jersey club where Fazio is both a member and the architect on retainer. The Pine Barrens course was plowed under in 2022, so the homage no longer exists. At least, I didn’t think that it existed, until I played his Barefoot Resort course in North Myrtle Beach.
Pine Valley might be described as an aesthetic of scrub and sand. There are mighty, forced carries to travers, along with sempiternal, sandy lairs to avoid. Barefoot Fazio is quite similar. If you’re not faced with a forced carry, you’ll certainly contend with a fairway border or greenside necklace of sand. When you reach the 13th tee, you’ll face a drive into a fairway, and you might see a distant green, with a notable absence: flagstick. The 13th is the icing on the homage cake, a callout of the 8th hole at Pine Valley. Numero Ocho at the OG has two greens, side by side, and they change the manner in which the hole plays (so they say.) At Barefoot Fazio, the right-side green is a traditional approach, with an unimpeded run of fairway to putting surface. The left-side green (the one that I was fortunate to play) demands a pitch shot over a wasteland. It’s a fitting tribute for the rest of us to play.
Be certain to parrot the starter, Leon’s, advice, and play up a deck of tees. Barefoot Fazio offers five par-three holes, so the fours and fives play that much longer. Remember, too, that you are on vacation. Why not treat yourself to some birdie looks?
The Jack Nicklaus course at Pawley’s Plantation emerged from a period of hibernation in 2024. The greens were torn up and their original contours were restored. Work was overseen by Troy Vincent, a member of the Nicklaus Architecture team. In addition, the putting corridors were reseeded with a hardier, dwarf bermuda that has experienced great success, all along the Grand Strand that is Myrtle Beach.
My visit allowed me to see the inward half first, and I understand why the resort wishes to conclude your day on those holes. The front nine of Pawley’s Plantation works its way through familiar, low country trees and wetlands. The back nine begins in similar fashion, then makes its way east, toward the marsh that separates mainland from Pawley’s Island. Recalling the powerful sun of that Wednesday morning, any round beginning on the second nine would face collateral damage from the warming star. Much better to hit holes 11 to close when the sun is higher in the sky.
The marshland holes (12 through 17) are spectacular in their raw, unprotected nature. The winds off the Atlantic are unrelenting and unforgiving, and the twin, par-three holes will remain in your memory banks for time’s march. In typical Golden Bear fashion, a majority of his putting targets are smallish in nature, reflecting his appreciation for accurate approach shots. Be sure to find the forgiving side of each green, and err to that portion. You’ll be grateful.
Bonus Coverage: Myrtlewood, Beechwood, Arrowhead, and King’s North
Arrowhead (Raymond Floyd and Tom Jackson)
A course built in the middle of a community, water threatens on most every hole. The Cypress 9 provides a few holes forcing a carried drive then challenge you with water surrounding the green. On Waterway, a drivable 2nd hole will tempt most, so make sure the group ahead has cleared the green.
Myrtlewood (Edmund Alt and Arthur Hills) and Beechwood (Gene Hamm)
A middle of the winter New Englander’s paradise. Wide open fairways, zero blind shots and light rough allow for shaking off the rust and plenty of forgiveness. A plethora of dog legs cause one to be cautious with every tee shot. Won’t break the bank nor the scorecard.
King’s North @ Myrtle Beach National (Arnold Palmer)
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19th Hole
Vincenzi’s 2024 Players Championship betting preview: Pete Dye specialists ready to pass tough TPC Sawgrass test
The PGA Tour heads to TPC Sawgrass to play in one of the most prestigious and important events of the season: THE PLAYERS Championship. Often referred to as the fifth major, the importance of a PLAYERS victory to the legacy of a golfer can’t be overlooked.
TPC Sawgrass is a par-72 measuring 7,245 yards and featuring Bermudagrass greens. Golfers must be patient in attacking this Pete Dye course.
With trouble lurking at every turn, the strokes can add up quickly. With a par-5 16th that is a true risk-reward hole and the famous par-3 17th island green, the only safe bet at TPC Sawgrass is a bet on an exciting finish.
THE PLAYERS Championship field is often referred to as the strongest field of the year — and with good reason. There are 144 in the field, including 43 of the world’s top 50 players in the OWGR. Tiger Woods will not be playing in the event.
THE PLAYERS is an exceptionally volatile event that has never seen a back-to-back winner.
Past Winners at TPC Sawgrass
- 2023: Scottie Scheffler (-17)
- 2022: Cameron Smith (-13)
- 2021: Justin Thomas (-14)
- 2019: Rory McIlroy (-16)
- 2018: Webb Simpson (-18)
- 2017: Si-Woo Kim (-10)
- 2016: Jason Day (-15)
- 2015: Rickie Fowler (-12)In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).
5 Key Stats for TPC Sawgrass
Let’s take a look at five metrics key for TPC Sawgrass to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.
1. Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Approach has historically been far and away the most important and predictive stat at THE PLAYERS Championship. With water everywhere, golfers can’t afford to be wild with their iron shots. Not only is it essential to avoid the water, but it will also be as important to go after pins and make birdies because scores can get relatively low.
Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds
- Tom Hoge (+1.37)
- Scottie Scheffler (+1.20)
- Tony Finau (+0.99)
- Jake Knapp (+0.83)
- Shane Lowry (+0.80)
2. Total Driving
This statistic is perfect for TPC Sawgrass. Historically, driving distance hasn’t been a major factor, but since the date switch to March, it’s a bit more significant. During this time of year, the ball won’t carry quite as far, and the runout is also shorter.
Driving accuracy is also crucial due to all of the trouble golfers can get into off of the tee. Therefore, players who are gaining on the field with Total Driving will put themselves in an ideal spot this week.
Total Driving Over Past 24 Rounds
- Rory McIlroy (22)
- Akshay Bhatia (25)
- Keith Mitchell (25)
- Adam Hadwin (34)
- Sam Burns (+39)
3. Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs
TPC Sawgrass may be Pete Dye’s most famous design, and for good reason. The course features Dye’s typical shaved runoff areas and tricky green complexes. Pete Dye specialists love TPC Sawgrass and should have a major advantage this week.
SG: Total (Pete Dye) per round over past 36 rounds:
- Patrick Cantlay (+2.02)
- Scottie Scheffler (+1.90)
- Min Woo Lee (+1.77)
- Sungjae Im (+1.72)
- Brian Harman (+1.62)
4. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking
Prototypical ball-strikers have dominated TPC Sawgrass. With past winners like Sergio Garcia, Henrik Stenson, Webb Simpson, Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas, it’s evident that golfers must be striking it pure to contend at THE PLAYERS.
SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds
- Scottie Scheffler (+2.02)
- Tony Finau (+1.51)
- Tom Hoge (+1.48)
- Keith Mitchell (+1.38)
- Will Zalatoris (+1.18)
5. Par 5 Average
Par-5 average is extremely important at TPC Sawgrass. With all four of the Par-5s under 575 yards, and three of them under 540 yards, a good amount of the scoring needs to come from these holes collectively.
Par 5 Average Over Past 24 Rounds
- Scottie Schefler (+4.31)
- Erik Van Rooyen (+4.35)
- Doug Ghim (+4.34)
- Wyndham Clark (+4.34)
- Matt Fitzpatrick (+4.31)
6. Strokes Gained: Florida
We’ve used this statistic over the past few weeks, and I’d like to incorporate some players who do well in Florida into this week’s model as well.
Strokes Gained: Florida over past 30 rounds:
- Scottie Schefler (+2.43)
- Erik Van Rooyen (+1.78)
- Doug Ghim (+1.78)
- Wyndham Clark (+1.73)
- Matt Fitzpatrick (+1.69)
7. Strokes Gained: Total on Courses with High Water Danger
With water everywhere at TPC Sawgrass, the blow-up potential is high. It can’t hurt to factor in some players who’ve avoided the “eject” button most often in the past.
Strokes Gained: Total on Courses with High Water Danger over past 30 rounds:
- Scottie Schefler (+2.08)
- Rory McIlroy (+1.82)
- Tony Finau (+1.62)
- Patrick Cantlay (+1.51)
- Will Zalatoris (+1.49)
THE PLAYERS Championship Model Rankings
Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (25%), Total Driving (20%), SG: Total Pete Dye (14%), SG: Ball-striking (15%) SG: Par 5 (8%), SG: Florida (10%) and SG: High Water (8%).
- Scottie Scheffler
- Shane Lowry
- Tony Finau
- Corey Conners
- Keith Mitchell
- Justin Thomas
- Will Zalatoris
- Xander Schauffele
- Cameron Young
- Doug Ghim
- Sam Burns
- Chris Kirk
- Collin Morikawa
- Si Woo Kim
- Wyndham Clark
2024 THE PLAYERS Championship Picks
(All odds at the time of writing)
Patrick Cantlay +2500 (DraftKings):
Patrick Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship but is undoubtedly one of the most talented players on the PGA Tour. Since the win at Wilmington Country Club, the 31-year-old has twelve top-10 finishes on Tour and is starting to round into form for the 2024 season.
Cantlay has done well in the most recent “signature” events this season, finishing 4th at Riviera for the Genesis Invitational and 12th at Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The former Tour Championship winner resides in Jupiter, Florida and has played some good golf in the state, including finishing in a tie for 4th at the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational. His history at TPC Sawgrass has been up and down, but his best career start at The PLAYERS came last year when he finished in a tie for 19th.
Cantlay absolutely loves Pete Dye designed courses and ranks 1st in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Dye tracks in his past 36 rounds. In recent years, he’s been excellent at both the RBC Heritage and the Travelers Championship. TPC Sawgrass is a place where players will have to be dialed in with their irons and distance off the tee won’t be quite as important. In his past 24, rounds, Cantlay ranks in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach.
Despite being winless in recent years, I still believe Cantlay is capable of winning big tournaments. As one of the only United States players to bring their best game to Marco Simone for the Ryder Cup, I have conviction that the former top amateur in the world can deliver when stakes are high.
Will Zalatoris +3000 (FanDuel):
In order to win at TPC Sawgrass, players will need to be in total control of their golf ball. At the moment, Will Zalatoris is hitting it as well as almost anyone and finally has the putter cooperating with his new switch to the broomstick style.
Zalatoris is coming off back-to-back starts where he absolutely striped the ball. He finished 2nd at the Genesis Invitational and 4th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational where his statistics were eye opening. For the week at Bay Hill, Zal gained 5.0 strokes on approach and 5.44 strokes off the tee.
Throughout the early part of his career, Zalatoris has established himself by playing his best golf in the strongest fields with the most difficult conditions. A tough test will allow him to separate himself this week and breakthrough for a PLAYERS Championship victory.
Shane Lowry +4000 (DraftKings):
History has shown us that players need to be in good form to win the PLAYERS Championship and it’s hard to find anyone not named Scottie Scheffler who’s in better form that Shane Lowry at the moment. He finished T4 at the Cognizant Classic followed by a solo third place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
The fact that the Irishman contended at Bay Hill is a great sign considering he’s really struggled there throughout his career. He will now head to a different style of course in Florida where he’s had a good deal of success. He finished 8th at TPC Sawgrass in 2021 and 13th in 2022.
Lowry ranks 6th in the field in approach in his past 24 rounds, 7th in Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye designed courses in his last 30 rounds, 8th in par 5 scoring this season, and 4th in Strokes Gained: Total in Florida over his past 36 rounds.
Lowry is a player who’s capable of winning big events. He’s a major champion and won another premier event at Wentworth as well as a WGC at Firestone. He’s also a form player, when he wins it’s typically when he’s contended in recent starts. He’s been terrific thus far in Florida and he should get into contention once again this week.
Brian Harman +8000 (DraftKings):
(Note: Since writing this Harman’s odds have plummeted to 50-1. I would not advise betting the 50).
Brian Harman showed us last season that if the course isn’t extremely long, he has the accuracy both off the tee and with his irons to compete with anyone in the world. Last week at Bay Hill and was third in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining 5.54 strokes on the field in the category.
In addition to the strong iron play, Harman also gained strokes off the tee in three of four rounds. He’s also had success at Pete Dye tracks recently. He finished 2nd at last year’s Travelers Championship and 7th at the RBC Heritage.
It would be a magnificent feat for Harman to win both the Open Championship and PLAYERS in a short time frame, but the reality is the PGA Tour isn’t quite as strong as it once was. Harman is a player who shows up for the biggest events and his odds seem way too long for his recent track record.
Tony Finau +6500 (FanDuel):
A few weeks ago, at the Genesis Invitational, I bet Hideki Matsuyama because I believed it to be a “bet the number” play at 80-1. I feel similarly about Finau this week. While he’s not having the season many people expected of him, he is playing better than these odds would indicate.
This season, Tony has a tied for 6th place finish at Torrey Pines, a tied for 19th at Riviera and tied for 13th at the Mexico Open. He’s also hitting the ball extremely well. In the field in his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Par 5 average and 15th in Total Driving.
Finau’s problem has been with the putter, which has been undeniably horrific. However, this week he will see a putting surface similar to the POA at TPC Scottsdale and PGA West, which he’s had a great deal of success on. It’s worth taking a stab at this price to see if he can have a mediocre week with the flat stick.
Sungjae Im +9000 (FanDuel):
It’s been a lackluster eighteen months for Sungjae, who once appeared to be a certain star. While his ceiling is absolutely still there, it’s been a while since we’ve seen Im play the type of golf expected of a player with his talent.
Despite the obvious concerns, the South Korean showed glimpses of a return to form last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He tied for 18th place and gained strokes off the tee, on approach, around the green and with the putter. When at his best, Im is a perfect course fit for TPC Sawgrass. He has remarkable precision off the tee, can get dialed in with his irons on shorter courses and can get up and down with the best players on Tour.
This number has gotten to the point where I feel comfortable taking a shot on it.
Billy Horschel +20000 (FanDuel):
Billy Horschel is a great fit on paper for TPC Sawgrass. He can get dialed in with his irons and his lack of distance off the tee won’t be a major detriment at the course. “Bermuda Billy” does his best work putting on Bermudagrass greens and he appears to be rounding into form just in time to compete at The PLAYERS.
In his most recent start, Billy finished in a tie for 9th at the Cognizant Classic and hit the ball extremely well. The former Florida Gator gained 3.32 strokes on approach and 2.04 strokes off the tee. If Horschel brings that type of ball striking to TPC Sawgrass, he has the type of putter who can win a golf tournament.
Horschel has been great on Pete Dye designed courses, with four of his seven career PGA Tour wins coming on Dye tracks.
In a season that has seen multiple long shots win big events, the 37-year-old is worth a stab considering his knack for playing in Florida and winning big events.
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J Taylor
Sep 12, 2021 at 3:51 pm
Nice hair! You’re way too old to be sporting that f a g g o t! Talk about someone with self absorbed narcissistic tendencies. Pathetic.
Sean
Jul 19, 2021 at 9:15 am
Great mental debrief to your round Jaacob. I have been working on the same thing. I realize that even the professionals struggle from time to time, so I can’t get too upset if I am having a poor round. Besides, getting angry/frustrated only compounds it. I find if I keep grinding, I can take some positives away from a poor round.
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McShooter
Jul 5, 2021 at 10:18 pm
That famous quote is from Teddy Roosevelt. Good post round analysis. However, weather conditions don’t matter since everyone is suffering, unless there’s a drastic change in the middle if day.
McShooter
Jul 5, 2021 at 10:21 pm
And spellcheck / auto correct is annoying…
Ben
Jun 27, 2021 at 11:21 am
Thank you for this great insight. Would be happy To hear again from your experience and improvements (and the way you follow to reach higher standards)
Aaron Badds
Jun 28, 2021 at 2:13 pm
Wow, what a beautiful swing mate. And some serious clubhead speed to go with it. Can’t wait to see you tearing up the PGA tour soon. Cheers!