The U.S. Open is all about hanging in and hanging on. The U.S. Open at the Olympic Club is all about avoiding that big number. The big number is all that keeps Brooke Henderson and Angel Yin from the top of the leader board. Its avoidance is all that has kept six golfers at the top of the charts. For giggles, imagine that Henderson and Yin toss rounds in the mid 60s on Sunday, and three or more of the top six struggle. You see where this leads, right? The 2021 U.S. Open is far from over, despite being three-quarters complete.

We learned five new things about this year’s competition, and we’ll share them with you now in the Saturday edition of Five Things We Learned at the U.S. Women’s Open.

1. Lexi Thompson has a chance

She’s in the lead with one round to go, but it’s not a large lead. Thompson missed the first three greens but recovered with a putt, a chip, and a sandie. That’s three misses that might easily have turned into bogey. See where this leads? Lexi’s misses have been left off the tee, no matter the club. She missed left off number one with driver; two with fairway metal; and three with iron. Her step-out move, where the lead foot jumps left to help clear the hips, can lead to the miss left.

On her side is her touch. She is putting from off and on the greens with tremendous pace awareness. Her sand game was impeccable, with wonderful up-and-downs at three and seven on day three. Her chipping through the thickish greenside rough has been forceful. All those things led to 66 on Saturday. Lexi has finished inside the top 10 at the Open on four occasions, including a career-best T2 in 2019. What will 2021 bring?

.@Lexi is in the LEAD in the #USWomensOpen!

She birdied the par-5 17th hole to get to 7-under par at @TheOlympicClub. pic.twitter.com/jgLRxXE8WQ

— U.S. Women's Open (USGA) (@uswomensopen) June 6, 2021

2. Yuka Saso is seeing all of the Lake course

The fearless young Filipina apparently has no problem making bogey. For a brief moment late, she was tied with Lexi Thompson for first, but made bogey at the last to fall back to 6 under par. The foozle was her fourth on the day, matching her birdie tally. Saso’s story could be much different if she had the ability to corral her emotions and game and avoid the bogey derailments. Saso reached eight deep at the 10th hole but made back-back bogeys at 13 and 14 to fall back.

What led to her bogeys? At four, she reached the green in regulation but putted timidly down the slope from distance, and missed the next one for par. At 13, she short-sided herself against a sucker hole location and could only minimize the damage by pitching to green center. At 14, she again overcooked an iron to the left and was unable to pitch and putt for par. At the last, her approach from the fairway did not release left. Instead, it nestled in thick greenside cabbage, and once again, minimized her options.

Saso will need better approach play on Sunday if she is to challenge Thompson for the title. She certainly has demonstrated the game, but will she pair it well with the proper demeanor? That remains to be seen.

Co-leaders in the 76th #USWomensOpen!

Yuka Saso's birdie at the 17th hole ties her with @Lexi at 7-under par at @TheOlympicClub. pic.twitter.com/jsoIN5rKKh

— U.S. Women's Open (USGA) (@uswomensopen) June 6, 2021

3. Mel Reid’s challenge faded away

It’s only fair to recognize the effort that the Englishwoman put forth in this year’s championship. She held a share of the opening-round lead but turned in higher and higher scores as the weekend arrived. On Saturday, Reid foundered with three double bogeys and five singles on her way to 78 and a tie for 23rd. As if mocking her plight, the golf gods allowed her to hole a 100-yard wedge for eagle two at the 11th hole. Alas, that moment and her birdie at the 15th were the only bright spots on a forgettable day for Mel Reid.

? FLY EAGLES FLY ?@melreidgolf knocks it in from 99 yards at the par-4 11th hole. @TheOlympicClub | #USWomensOpen pic.twitter.com/OhlkC5KH1u

— U.S. Women's Open (USGA) (@uswomensopen) June 5, 2021

4. What to do with Megha Ganne?

She’s precocious in her confidence, and her game has held up through three rounds. Ganne will again play in the penultimate pairing, this time with 2019 Open champion Jeongeun Lee6. Ganne has gone from 6 birdies to 3, to 2 on Saturday. This trend does not bode well. Either she is timid in her approach shots, or she is conservative in her strategy. What does Megha Ganne want from Sunday? She should want to play like she did on Thursday: fearless. Neither crazy nor casual, but fearless. Maja Stark is but four shots behind in the race for low amateur, so that prize is not guaranteed. If Ganne rediscovers her vibe from day one, she’ll make a run at the title and cement the low amateur baubles. If she plays like she did over the last 36 holes, well, you can extrapolate.

That was MEGHA!

Ganne will have a birdie attempt at @TheOlympicClub's 9th hole. #USWomensOpen pic.twitter.com/W7kfsvOnwH

— U.S. Women's Open (USGA) (@uswomensopen) June 5, 2021

5. Who wins on Sunday?

They say that the U.S. Open chooses you. It has already chosen Jeongeun Lee6 once, and it will select her again on the sixth day of June, 2021. Lee Thee Six did nothing on Saturday to confirm this hunch, and she will begin the final round four strokes behind the leader. She will begin it one group ahead of the leader, and we predict that she will be 3 under on her round by the sixth hole. This fast start will catch the attention of the top pairing, and will ultimately allow her to add a second Open trophy to her shelf.

2019 #USWomensOpen champion Jeongeun Lee6 with a beauty of a shot at @TheOlympicClub's iconic par-3 8th hole. pic.twitter.com/sVkVNdhySI

— U.S. Women's Open (USGA) (@uswomensopen) June 5, 2021

 

 

Here’s a bit of a primer on how we compose our 5 Things series during major championship weeks. Thursday’s review is Hopes and Dreams, as 54 holes remain, and it is always the day with the most surprising results. Friday’s recap is A Farewell to Thee, as we bide adieu to half the field. Still too early to truly understand who might win. Saturday, moving day to most, is Position Round for us. Players stake out an advantageous spot from which to attack on Sunday. Day four is Cauldron, when the tension bubbles like lava, and golfers make a name for themselves.

Thus, we find ourselves saying good-bye in this update, knowing that the hopes and dreams of many have been erased, but that they will rise again to compete in less than a week. The leaderboard is less compacted, thanks to Yuka Saso’s move to minus 6.

Let’s run down five important elements of the 2021 U.S. Women’s Open at the Olympic Club, as they will paint the background of the tournament canvas.

1. Farewell to thee

Defending champion A Lim Kim, current British Open champion Sophia Popov, world No. 4 Nelly Korda, and a spate of former champions (Wie West, Sung-hyun, Lang, Creamer, Eun-hee) will miss the weekend. All in all, that’s not a lot of big names. We’re in for a treat this weekend. Lots of short irons into elevated greens with plenty o’ tilt to them. Approach shots will dance and putts will fall. Simply put, the best golf on television this weekend.

2. Meg Thee Pairing

Tied for third position, a pair of shots behind the leader, are Megan Khang and amateur Megha Ganne, both from the USA. Megan Thee Khang added a minus-1 effort to her opening minus-3 with birdies at the first, 12th, and 17th holes. Megha Thee Ganne reached minus 6 after a 10-foot birdie putt at the wee seventh. A pair of back-nine bogeys dropped her back to where she began. She then finished birdie-par-bogey to gain a spot in the penultimate pairing.

Can a 17-year old amateur win? We say yes, but we’re not picking her. Can a 23-year old professional with no victories, win? Absolutely, but not our choice. It’s the U.S. Open, baby! It’s Open for just that reason.

3. Philippines Represent!

Yuka Saso won a pair of medals at the 2018 Asian Games. On Friday in San Francisco, the Filipina 19-year-old tossed a stellar 67, one shot off the day’s low round of 66. Saso had six birdies against a pair of bogeys and took a one-shot lead over former U.S. Open champion Jeongeun Lee6. Saso has 10 birdies through two rounds and will need to keep sizing her nest over the next two days in order to have a shot at the winner’s trophy. Birdie both days at the tricky 18th bodes well. Nothing like finishing strong for added confidence.

4. Classic courses suit her

In 2019, Jeongeun Lee6 won her only USA event at the Country Club of Charleston. The Seth Raynor course hosted the U.S. Open that year, and Lee6 won by two shots over a triumvirate of chasers. This year, Lee6 finds herself in the final pairing for round three, one stroke behind the leader. Olympic Club’s Lake Course is a William Watson design. Watson is not as well known as other Golden-Age architects (Colt, Raynor, Travis, Macdonald, MacKenzie, Ross, et al.) but his work is enviable and playable. Attempting to close her second round with four consecutive birdies, Lee6 left her putt for three at the last six inches short, in the jaws of the cup.

5. Who do we predict will win?

We’re still big on Lexi Thompson. She finished runner-up to JL6 in 2019 and lurks at 2-under, four off the lead. Lexi has made a pair of bogeys each day. She’ll need to up her birdie count to have a run at the title. What will determine her fortune? The putter, the one club that runs hot and cold for the 26-year old champion.

The Olympic Club’s Lake Course is the perfect venue for a competition edged with a bit of architectural controversy. Blend narrow fairways, overhanging trees, oddly-placed bunkers and tilted putting surfaces, and you’ve a recipe for debate and finger-wagging. Thursday at the 2021 U.S. Women’s Open saw eight golfers break 70, seven more break par, and a few leave the grounds of the venerable San Francisco club scratching their heads, uncertain over what just happened.

The co-leaders stand at 4 under par after 18 holes. Some 25 other golfers finished within four shots of that number. With 54 holes left to be played, much remains unknown about this year’s event. Nevertheless, there were five things that we learned on Thursday at the national championship of the USA, so let’s unpack them and find out more about the 2021 US Women’s Open.

1. Angel Yin might finish it off this year

Two years ago, the long-hitting youngster tied for 2nd at the national open championship. Held at the country club of Charleston, the event featured a traditional golf club with a demanding golf course. Yin held up well and used the event as a springboard toward making her second U.S. Solheim Cup side. This year, Yin was the only player in the top 10 to truly solve the closing holes at Olympic. While everyone else gave shots back at the par 5-par 4 concluding stretch, Yin gained back three strokes with hear eagle-birdie finish. Sure, it might be an early-week, one-time fluke. If we see her repeat the feat, watch out for Yin come Sunday.

2. Being the best doesn’t work out every week

Nelly Korda is currently ranked fourth in the world, the highest rung for any golfer from the USA. Korda opened with 78 at Olympic, good for a tie for 119th spot, 11 shots behind the leaders. Other big numbers turned in by pre-event favorites were 76s from Sophia Popov and amateur Rose Zhang, and 75s from Patty Tavatanakit and Anna Nordqvist. Korda was undone by a triple-bogey seven at the 260-yard seventh hole. The young Floridian lost a hybrid right, slashed around the rough a bit, and took three putts from the top of the two-tiered green. Olympic will demand immeasurable amounts of patience from its winner this week. If it is to be Nelly Korda, she will need to complete an incredible comeback.

3. Just don’t lose the tournament on day one

It’s an old adage, and pairs with the notion that no one wins an event on day one. Golfers like Inbee Park, Lydia Ko, and Ariya Jutanugarn didn’t light the course up on Thursday, but they didn’t handcuff themselves, either. Each shot even-par 71 to preserve a chance at the title. At minus-one are Jeongeun Lee6 (the 2019 winner of this event) Jennifer Kupcho, and Marina Alex. A case can be made for any of these golfers to be in contention on Sunday afternoon. Unlike those who struggled, these golfers found a way to preserve a shot at the title. Most days at the Open, it’s not about the birdies you made, but the bogies that you avoided.

4. Defending champion A Lim Kim struggles

As dominant and poised as the young Korean golfer was at Champions last December, she was not today at Olympic. Kim scribbled two 7s and six 5s on her scorecard, on her way to an opening 79. Golf is fickle, and major-championship golf, doubly so. Kim never locked into the quirky California course. She stood three over par before she reached the third tee, and didn’t make a birdie until the 15th green. 2020 runners-up Amy Olson and Jin Young Ko are shaking their heads, wondering where this round was last December for Kim. Incidentally, Ko opened with 70, while Olson signed for 73, during this year’s opening day.

5. And the winner is …

It’s never to early to make an incorrect prediction on who will hoist the sizable trophy on Sunday! I like Lexi Thompson, the long-hitting Floridian. Lexi has never proven that she can win on narrow, nail-biter courses, but 2021 shows us a new and improved model, built for U.S. Open success. Thompson opened with 69, and finds herself two behind English pro Mel Reid and USA amateur Megha Ganne, the round-one leaders. Thompson won’t go low any of the next three days, but she will play consistent golf and win her second professional major title.