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The 23 players who can win the Masters

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Each year for the Masters, I create a filtering process to help determine the players who are most likely to win the green jacket based on criteria that have strongly predicted outcomes at Augusta. I usually get the list down to roughly 20-25 players.

Last year, Dustin Johnson was one of my 21 players who could win the Masters. Dustin was at 9/1 odds. The other top finishers, like Cameron Smith and Sung Jae Im, were filtered out unlike previous years where players that were in contention were typically shortlisted. My theory on that is that due to the tournament being played in November, the course was not playing as firm and as fast as it normally does, and that allowed players who typically do not get through my filter to get into contention.

Before I discuss my picks for this year’s Masters, I want to go over what I call the “critical holes” for Augusta National. The critical holes in any tournament are the ones where the top finishers typically gain the most strokes on the field, as well as where the greatest deviation in scores exist. One of the interesting aspects about critical holes is that they often change over time due to changes in the course conditions, course design or a change in player strategy, which can create a smaller deviation in scores.

This year, the projected critical holes are No. 8, 13, 14, and 15.

The 15th hole, Firethorn, should be considered the most pivotal hole on the course as over the last five Masters the top finishers in the event have gained 0.391 strokes per round on the hole.

Moving on to the tournament, I filtered out the amateurs and all first-time professional attendees. The Masters has only been won once by a first-time attendee: Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979 and Gene Sarazen in the inaugural event

  • Joe Long (a)
  • Robert MacIntyre
  • Carlos Ortiz
  • Charles Osborne (a)
  • Tyler Strafaci (a)
  • Will Zalatoris

Despite being first-time invitees, the data likes both Ortiz and Zalatoris as they would have gotten through all of the other filters to be selected as players that could win the Masters.

I also filtered out eight past champions I do not believe can contend at Augusta National anymore

  • Fred Couples
  • Bernhard Langer
  • Sandy Lyle
  • Larry Mize
  • Jose Maria Olazabal
  • Vijay Singh
  • Mike Weir
  • Ian Woosnam

The Zach Johnson debate

Every year I do my Masters picks, it’s always pointed out that I do not pick former Masters Champion Zach Johnson due to his lack of length off the tee. Augusta National greatly favors long-ball hitters. They can play the par 5s more like par 4s, and typically the longer hitters can also hit the ball higher so they can get their long approach shots to hold the green more easily.

When Johnson won the Masters in 2007, the event featured record-low temperatures in the mid-40s and wind gusts of 33 mph. This made it very hard for any player to reach the par 5s in two shots and allowed Johnson to get into a wedge contest on the par 5s, his strength.

This week the forecast is calling for high 70’s to low 80’s with winds topping out at only 10 mph. There are some scattered showers in the forecast that may soften up the greens and give shorter hitters more of a chance to win.

But I believe that it will not be enough to take the advantage away from the longer hitters.

Therefore I filtered out the following players.

  • Abraham Ancer
  • Brian Gay
  • Brian Harman
  • Mackenzie Hughes
  • Zach Johnson
  • Kevin Kisner
  • Matt Kuchar
  • Francesco Molinari
  • Kevin Na
  • C.T. Pan
  • Ian Poulter
  • Patrick Reed
  • Webb Simpson
  • Henrik Stenson
  • Robert Streb
  • Michael Thompson
  • Brendon Todd

A part of the game that is just as critical as distance is the trajectory height a player can create. Last year, I filtered out four players for hitting the ball too low. Out of those four players, the best finish was Patrick Reed at T10. I use a combination of max height, carry distance, and launch angle to determine if the following players hit the ball too low to win at Augusta.

  • Daniel Berger
  • Christian Bezuidenhout
  • Patrick Cantlay
  • Cameron Champ
  • Harris English
  • Matthew Fitzpatrick
  • Lanto Griffin
  • Jim Herman
  • Matt Jones
  • Sebastian Munoz
  • Victor Perez
  • Xander Schauffele
  • Bernd Wiesberger
  • Lee Westwood

Since the inauguration of the event, there have only been two winners of the Masters that have previously never made the cut: Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979 and Gene Sarazen in 1936. Let’s filter them out as well.

  • Max Homa
  • Jason Kokrak
  • Joaquin Niemann
  • Hudson Swafford
  • Matthew Wolff

I will also filter out the players who missed the cut at San Antonio. Historically, players that miss the cut the week prior have a substantially lower likelihood of winning the following week compared to the players that made the cut in the previous week or did not play at all.

  • Tony Finau
  • Phil Mickelson
  • Danny Willett

Lastly, I have filtered out the weak performers from the “Red Zone,” approach shots from 175-225 yards. While Augusta is known for its greens, the winners are determined mostly by the quality of their approach shots throughout the event. In fact, 11 of the last 12 champions have hit at least 49 greens in regulation during the week.

  • Jason Day
  • Tommy Fleetwood
  • Dylan Frittelli
  • Billy Horschel
  • Brooks Koepka
  • Martin Laird
  • Scottie Scheffler
  • Charl Schwartzel
  • Adam Scott
  • Cameron Smith
  • Jimmy Walker
  • Matt Wallace

That leaves the following 23 players who can win the Masters:

  • Paul Casey (45/1)
  • Stewart Cink (450/1)
  • Corey Conners (80/1)
  • Bryson DeChambeau (11/1)
  • Sergio Garcia (50/1)
  • Tyrrell Hatton (45/1)
  • Viktor Hovland (33/1)
  • Sungjae Im (40/1)
  • Dustin Johnson (9/1)
  • Si Woo Kim (125/1)
  • Marc Leishman (110/1)
  • Shane Lowry (110/1)
  • Hideki Matsuyama (45/1)
  • Rory McIlroy (18/1)
  • Collin Morikawa (30/1)
  • Louis Oosthuizen (75/1)
  • Ryan Palmer (150/1)
  • Jon Rahm (12/1)
  • Justin Rose (80/1)
  • Jordan Spieth (11/1)
  • Justin Thomas (12/1)
  • Bubba Watson (55/1)
  • Gary Woodland (150/1)

Here are my personal top-10 picks

  • Paul Casey (45/1)
  • Corey Conners (80/1)
  • Bryson Dechambeau (11/1)
  • Sergio Garcia (50/1)
  • Viktor Hovland (33/1)
  • Dustin Johnson (9/1)
  • Rory McIlroy (18/1)
  • Collin Morikawa (30/1)
  • Jon Rahm (12/1)
  • Jordan Spieth (11/1)
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Richie Hunt is a statistician whose clients include PGA Tour players, their caddies and instructors in order to more accurately assess their games. He is also the author of the recently published e-book, 2018 Pro Golf Synopsis; the Moneyball Approach to the Game of Golf. He can be reached at [email protected] or on Twitter @Richie3Jack. GolfWRX Writer of the Month: March 2014 Purchase 2017 Pro Golf Synopsis E-book for $10

33 Comments

33 Comments

  1. Garrett

    Apr 13, 2021 at 12:13 pm

    Next year Ill just put 20 on each of those 23 players and there’s no way i can lose!!

  2. Joel

    Apr 11, 2021 at 10:04 pm

    Are we ever going to give this guy the credit he deserves? Holy moly. So many years of getting this right. I even told me buddy that this was the year he’d finally be wrong (I thought Schauffle would win) but nope.

    Huge congrats to both Hideki and R3J.

  3. Bruce Gordon

    Apr 7, 2021 at 8:01 pm

    Wrong. Lee Westwood will win this year, JT is 2nd.

  4. kevin

    Apr 7, 2021 at 9:07 am

    jon rahm is due

  5. Gordy

    Apr 7, 2021 at 8:17 am

    I think using trajectory is pretty good idea to filter out golfers. As someone who plays on a course that is very hilly like Augusta National, how high you hit your ball off the drives(especially up hill) really plays a factor. Or even down hill allows you to roll out even further. Clear advantage for folks who hi it higher and carry it further.

  6. Evan

    Apr 6, 2021 at 10:30 am

    Reed not long enough?! He’s longer than plenty of your potential winners.

    • Richie Hunt

      Apr 6, 2021 at 2:00 pm

      He’s lost considerable amount of distance this year. He’s ranked 150th in Adjusted Driving Distance on Measured Drives (where they use driver). He’s also hitting the ball much lower.

      • Evan

        Apr 6, 2021 at 3:10 pm

        Thanks Rich, that’s surprising – wouldn’t of put him down as a shorter hitter. Still, he’s a winner for sure and I think he’s got a chance.

    • Richie Hunt

      Apr 6, 2021 at 4:02 pm

      Reed currently ranks quite low in Adjusted Driving Distance for measured drives. His speed has slowed down considerably this year and he’s hitting the ball much lower.

  7. Phil Underhill

    Apr 6, 2021 at 9:53 am

    What club are you basing trajectory from? – Presumably driver. Which I think is a mistake, plenty of players hit their irons high but choose to play a lower lofted driver (or choose to hit with a negative angle of attack). I certainly don’t think hitting the ball low off of the tee is a disadvantage there

    • Richie Hunt

      Apr 6, 2021 at 2:02 pm

      It is based off the driver using carry distance, launch angle and max height to determine. I can just say that ever since I’ve been doing it I’ve had tremendous luck with it. If the conditions called for rain I would not use it for a filter.

    • Richie Hunt

      Apr 6, 2021 at 4:04 pm

      Here’s a list of the players I’ve filtered out for a low trajectory since I started doing this column in 2013. 50 players in total, 23 (46%) went on to miss the cut. Only 4 (8%) finished in the top-10 and only 1 (Jimenez in 2014) finished in the top-5.

      https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1GefucgTSKwoBSvTnsqY5KNBgRWAKz21fy5S4w3EHIUA/edit?usp=sharing

  8. freeze

    Apr 6, 2021 at 8:28 am

    Collin Morikawa is 126 in distance, why wasnt he eliminated? CT Pan out drives him and he was. The red zone isnt 175-225, its a 100 and in. Your list is a joke, you didnt even follow your own metrics

  9. Ryan

    Apr 6, 2021 at 5:35 am

    Do you use solely PGA tour data? Would be interesting to see if there is less predictive power for guys who play primarily on a different tour, which means they have less PGA tour rounds in stats. The more I think about this the more it makes sense though. Great stuff.

  10. jgpl001

    Apr 6, 2021 at 3:52 am

    Cink really? More chance of me winning this week, no disrespect to Cink who was a really good player, but he is long past his prime and totally incapable of competing at this level anymore

    • Richie Hunt

      Apr 6, 2021 at 2:13 pm

      Cink was the biggest surprise and him winning would make him the oldest winner in major championship history. However I don’t use age as a filter as players that get thru the filters, regardless of age, have routinely gotten into contention. The reason why older guys like Cink don’t get thru the filter very often is that when they get that age they tend to not hit the ball far enough, high enough or basically just aren’t very good anymore.

  11. Colin

    Apr 6, 2021 at 3:02 am

    Unclear why Molinari “can’t win” given that he led in the final round in 2019 and has improved his driving distance considerably in the past 3 years or so. Poor form aside, does he *really* have less chance than Cink??

    • Christian R

      Apr 6, 2021 at 7:11 am

      I agree.
      Cink can just loop for Frankie. Maybe.

    • Richie Hunt

      Apr 6, 2021 at 2:17 pm

      The problem with looking at the driving distance metrics on the Tour Web site is that they are not adjusted for schedule. Playing a course like Phoenix where the ball travels far is different than playing a course like Pebble Beach where the ball doesn’t travel nearly as far. I base my distance filter on Adjusted Driving Distance which factors in schedule and Molinari is *shorter* this year than he was 3 years ago. 3 year ago I also shortlisted Molinari and had him in my top-10. But this year he didn’t get thru the distance filter.

      I got this complaint a few years ago about Paul Casey who didn’t make it thru the trajectory filter despite playing well. And then he badly missed the cut.

  12. TacklingDummy

    Apr 5, 2021 at 10:26 pm

    Interesting reasons for filtering out. Personally, that wouldn’t be by criteria for filtering players. I would add to the possible win list along with most of the 23 players: Jason Day, Tommy Fleetwood, Billy Horschel, Brooks Koepka, Charl Schwartzel, Adam Scott, Xander Schauffele, Lee Westwood, Matt Kuchar, Francesco Molinari, Kevin Na, Patrick Reed, Webb Simpson, Henrik Stenson

    It is the Masters. There are so many top players that just find another gear at the Masters no matter how they have been playing of late.

    • Richie Hunt

      Apr 5, 2021 at 11:46 pm

      The filters are based on statistics and past trends of the last 25 Masters tournaments. They are not subjective filters, but objective filters. A player that did get filtered may overcome what based on history and trends has typically projected them to do poorly.

  13. DJ

    Apr 5, 2021 at 6:45 pm

    man you have some terrible short game (putting included)players in….si woo, Hideki, Hovland

    • Richie Hunt

      Apr 5, 2021 at 11:44 pm

      The Masters isn’t a putting course. It’s an approach shot play course. The long hitters can afford themselves some shorter shots into the green, but if their iron play is poor they are going to have tough road ahead of them even if they are hitting short approaches into the green. Short Game around the green usually doesn’t come into play, but if you’re not dead last and you strike the ball well you’re not going to have to worry about it. I think the course plays firm with a small breeze and will favor the longer hitters in the end.

    • TWick

      Apr 12, 2021 at 4:42 pm

      This aged poorly.

  14. Vic Hardy

    Apr 5, 2021 at 5:19 pm

    I’m not a golfer but live in Augusta and always watch the Masters, even attended it once.

    This is interesting from a statistician’s perspective. If I look at the world rankings, both Johnson and Rory are I believe in the top 10. Spieth is down in the 60’s but just had his first win in 4 years. Bryson is ripe for a win.

    I’d put my money on Johnson.

  15. paul

    Apr 5, 2021 at 1:01 pm

    Connors hits it so low….how did make it through?

    • Richie Hunt

      Apr 5, 2021 at 1:24 pm

      Connors currently ranks 136th out of 219 players in Apex Height and 121st in Carry Distance. He’s basically at the threshold of trajectory.

  16. Dpd901

    Apr 5, 2021 at 12:37 pm

    Gene Sarazen didn’t win the first Augusta National Invitational, Horton Smith did. Sarazen won the 2nd

    • Jake

      Apr 5, 2021 at 9:31 pm

      Sarazen won the first Masters.

      Prior to that it was Jones’ white man only event.

  17. Chuck

    Apr 5, 2021 at 12:18 pm

    Did you have Danny Willett as a possible in 2016?

    He’s a past champion, a top-100 OWGR player, and has shown at least some form this year (despite a MC last week). Yet you don’t even have him mentioned.

    • Eric

      Apr 5, 2021 at 12:38 pm

      Actually, he included Willett in the “Missed cut at San Antonio” group…

    • Richie Hunt

      Apr 5, 2021 at 1:28 pm

      I had Willett shortlisted in 2016. And Willett was filtered out for MC’ing at San Antonio.

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19th Hole

5 examples of how Lexi Thompson has been treated harsher than any of her peers

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*Editor’s note: This article originally appeared on GolfWRX in September 2023*

Following Lexi Thompson’s Solheim Cup post-round presser on Friday evening, the 28-year-old has been the topic of much discussion.

Golf pundits and fans alike have been weighing in with their takes after this exchange with a reporter surrounding an untimely shank on Friday afternoon went viral:

After the incident, LPGA Hall of Famer Nancy Lopez said that Lexi has “been picked on and drug through negative comments. She is tired of it”

So has the criticism of Lexi Thompson been justified, or is this yet another example of her being unfairly treated?

Well, here are five times, in my opinion, that Lexi has been scrutinized far differently over the years than her peers.

2022 KPMG PGA Championship

At the 2022 KPMG PGA Championship, Lexi Thompson held a two-stroke lead with three holes to play. She couldn’t close the deal and lost the tournament.

Afterwards, she was fined $2k (as were the rest of the group) for slow play.

Lexi declined to speak to the media and got hammered on social media for doing so…

Almost every golfer at some point has skipped a media session following disappointment on the course, and nobody has really batted an eyelid.

Tiger skipped back-to-back post-round media briefings at the 2019 WGC Mexico after being frustrated with his putting. Remember the backlash over that? Nah, me neither.

Donald Trump

@TheWhiteHouse

Every (or nearly every) big-name golfer under the sun has played golf with Donald Trump. Tiger Woods, Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy etc. Nobody really cared.

For whatever reason, when Lexi Thompson did, it was a story, and she took herself off social media soon after the photo was posted.

 

View this post on Instagram

 

A post shared by Lexi Thompson (@lexi)

2021 U.S. Women’s Open

In the final round of the 2021 U.S. Women’s Open, Lexi Thompson had a 6-foot eagle on her opening hole. She missed and made birdie to lead by five.

She then lost the tournament.

Following the round, Brandel Chamblee said on ‘Live From’:

“She’s got 6 feet away. Now professional golfers don’t miss the center of the face by a pinhead. Look where she hits this putt on the very 1st hole. Look where this putt comes off the face. She would have missed the center of the putter there by a half an inch. I have never — I have never — seen a professional golfer miss the center of the putter by a wider margin than that. That was at the 1st hole. “

Honest? Absolutely. Correct? Brandel usually is. Has any other LPGA golfer been handed the full-on Chamblee treatment? Not to my knowledge.

2023 Solheim Cup

Lexi Thompson spoke the words, “I don’t need to comment on that” when a reporter asked her about a failed shot, and the golf community collectively lost their minds.

Lost on many people is the fact that she literally answered the question instantly after.

Jessica Korda described the reporting of the awkward exchange with the media member as yet another example of the golf media shredding Lexi, but in reality, it was really just golf media covering the furore created by golf fans reacting to the viral clip.

Lexi then won her next two matches, collecting 3 points from 4 for the U.S. team. But nobody seems to care about that.

Instagram

‘yOu ShoUlD PrAcTIce puTTinG’

There’s very few golfers that have been plagued with such inane posts on their Instagram page as Lexi Thompson has.

I’ve tracked golfer’s social media accounts over the past few years (job requirement, sort of?). I can categorically say that Lexi gets some of the angriest and most aggressive responses to her posts of any golfer. Male or female. (She also gets some very nice ones too).

Despite countless posts of Thompson relentlessly practising her putting, the number of comments from dummies accusing her of neglecting that area of her game is both bizarre and alarming. Notice how the comments have been disabled on the post below? Probably not a coincidence.

 

View this post on Instagram

 

A post shared by Lexi Thompson (@lexi)

Go on any other golfer’s social account, and it will be hard to find the same dynamic.

Throw in the scandalous rules decision at the 2017 ANA Inspiration that cost her a second major title and spawned the “Lexi rule,” and it’s hard not to think Lexi has had a bit of a raw deal at times.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 RBC Canadian Open betting preview: Breakthrough PGA Tour winner likely in Canada

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The PGA Tour is heading north of the border to play the 2024 RBC Canadian Open at Hamilton Golf and Country Club. 

This will be the seventh time that Hamilton Golf and Country Club will be hosting the Canadian Open. The previous six winners were Rory McIlroy (2019), Scott Piercy (2012), Jim Furyk (2006), Bob Tway (2003), Tommy Armour (1930) and James Douglas Edgar (1919). 

Hamilton Golf and Country Club is a par-70 measuring 7,084 yards and features greens that are a Bentgrass and Poa Annua blend. The course has been open since 1915 and is one of the oldest golf clubs in Canada. 

Since we’ve seen it last, the course underwent a $8.5-million restoration guided by Martin Ebert.

The RBC Canadian Open will play host to 156 golfers this week.  Notable players include Rory McIlroy, Sam Burns, Cameron Young, Shane Lowry, Tommy Fleetwood, Sahith Theegala and Alex Noren.

Past Winners at RBC Canadian Open

  • 2023: Nick Taylor (-17, Oakdale)
  • 2022: Rory McIlroy (-19, St. George’s)
  • 2019: Rory McIlroy (-22, Hamilton)
  • 2018: Dustin Johnson (-23, Glen Abbey)
  • 2017: Jhonattan Vegas (-21, Glen Abbey)
  • 2016: Jhonattan Vegas (-12, Glen Abbey)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).

Key Stats for Hamilton Golf and Country Club

Let’s take a look at five key metrics for Hamilton Golf and Country Club to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

The best metric to start with is Strokes Gained: Approach. Proficient iron play is a requirement anywhere, and this statistic will help target the hottest golfers. With the winning score likely being very low, players will need to be dialed with their approach shots. 

Strokes Gained: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Corey Conners (+1.14)
  2. Kelly Kraft (+1.06)
  3. Rory McIlroy (+0.88)
  4. Patton Kizzire (+0.87)
  5. Alex Noren (+0.76)

2. Good Drive %

Hamilton is a short golf course, so keeping the ball in the fairway, or just off, will be more important than bombing the ball this week. 

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Kelly Kraft (+89.3%)
  2. Daniel Berger (+87.9%)
  3. Nate Lashley (+87.6%)
  4. Chan Kim (+86.6%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+86.1%)

3. Bogey Avoidance %

I expect golfers to go low this week, in order to compete, limiting bogeys will be crucial. 

Bogey Avoidance % Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Alex Noren (+10.6%)
  2. Brice Garnett (+10.6%)
  3. Aaron Rai (+11.3%)
  4. Kevin Tway (+11.4%)
  5. Henrik Norlander (+11.4%)

4. Strokes Gained: Total in Canada

This stat will boost the players who’ve done well in Canada over the past 36 rounds. 

Strokes Gained: Total in Canada Over Past 36 Rounds

  1. Rory McIlroy (+4.28)
  2. Tommy Fleetwood (+3.07)
  3. Aaron Rai (+2.91)
  4. C.T. Pan (+2.80)
  5. Gary Woodland (+2.21)

5. Strokes Gained: Putting

Shorter courses with a lot of birdies being made tend to turn into putting contests. I believe a good putter will win the RBC Canadian Open.

Strokes Gained: Putting Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+1.04)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.84)
  3. Matt Kuchar (+0.74)
  4. Ben Griffin (+0.72)
  5. Sahith Theegala (+0.66)

The RBC Canadian Open Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (30%), Good Drive % (25%), Strokes Gained: Canada (15%), Bogey Avoidance % (15%), SG: Putting (15%).

  1. Aaron Rai
  2. Rory McIlroy
  3. Sahith Theegala
  4. Patton Kizzire
  5. Justin Lower
  6. Shane Lowry
  7. Tommy Fleetwood
  8. Alex Noren
  9. Kelly Kraft
  10. Jhonnatan Vegas

2024 RBC Canadian Open Picks

Tommy Fleetwood +1800 (FanDuel)

Tommy Fleetwood was incredibly close to winning last year’s RBC Canadian Open. The Englishman took Canadian Nick Taylor to four playoff holes before losing on Taylor’s miraculous eagle putt from 72 feet.

Despite being at a different course this year, Fleetwood is still a great fit for this event. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 23rd in the field in good drive percentage and seventh in bogey avoidance. The course is a shorter, plotters track, which will suit Fleetwood’s ability to hit it accurately from tee to green.

Tommy has gained strokes off the tee in six consecutive events. Those events include some big events such as The Masters, the PGA Championship and the Wells Fargo Championship. In those six starts, he has three top-15 finishes.

It’s been well documented that Fleetwood is yet to win on American soil and has looked like a different player when in contention outside of the United States. While it’s most definitely a mental hurdle that the 33-year-old will need to overcome, it doesn’t hurt that this event will be north of the border.

Martin Ebert, who redesigned Royal Liverpool and Royal Portrush, redesigned Hamilton as well. Fleetwood finished 2nd at Royal Portrush in 2019 and T10 at Royal Liverpool in 2023.

Backing Tommy has been frustrating at times, but I’m still of the mindset that betting on talent will eventually pay dividends.

Alex Noren +2500 (BetMGM)

Alex Noren is in the midst of one of the best seasons of his career. The Swede has an incredible eight straight top-25’s on Tour, with two of those being top-ten finishes. Noren has gained strokes on approach and around the green in all eight starts and has gained strokes off the tee in seven of eight.

Despite the strong results, the concern with Noren has been his inability to truly get into contention. However, this golf course feels like the right one for him to change that. He’s not incredibly long off the tee, so the shorter layout should help him. In his last 24 rounds, Noren ranks 6th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 8th in Good Drive Percentage and 3rd in Bogey Avoidance.

Noren’s ability to keep the ball in the ideal spots and limit mistakes should serve him well at Hamilton this week. In an event where accurate drivers should shine; he will have an advantage on the field. He hasn’t won on the PGA Tour, but the 41-year-old has ten wins on the European Tour. Being outside of the U.S. certainly won’t hurt Noren’s case.

Sam Burns +2800 (FanDuel)

Sam Burns had an excellent showing in Canada a few years ago, finishing in a tie for fourth place at the 2022 RBC Canadian Open a week after winning the Charles Schwab Challenge.

After a hot start to the season, Burns has struggled over the past few months, but has seemed to find some form with his irons in recent weeks. He finished T13 at the Wells Fargo Championship and gained 2.0 strokes on approach for the week. His irons were even better in the two rounds at the PGA Championship (+1.51 strokes per round), but a balky putter cost him the weekend, as he lost 5.1 strokes on the greens.

Burns is a player who can win an event with a hot putter and has done so in the past. He can make birdies in bunches and is one of the few players in the field that can win in both a difficult event and a shootout.

Robert MacIntyre +8000 (FanDuel)

Robert MacIntyre showed some life at the PGA Championship, finishing in a tie for 12th. For the week, MacIntyre ranked 16th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 18th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.

The 27-year-old is a high upside player who has shown he can compete in big events. He’s also been putting great recently which I believe is one of the most important factors this week. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 6th in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting.

We’ve seen MacIntyre play well at Open Championships and Martin Ebert, who redesigned Royal Liverpool and Royal Portrush, redesigned Hamilton as well. MacIntyre finished T6 at Royal Portrush in 2019.

Bobby Mac has gone toe-to-toe with some of the world’s best players at the Ryder Cup, and I believe has the right mentality to beat anyone if he finds himself in contention down the stretch.

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: Early season wedge game tune-up

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Depending on the part of the country you call home, you might just be getting into the 2024 golf season, or you might be several months into it. Either way, your scoring success this season – like every season – will likely drill down to how good your game is from 100 yards and in.

The best way to sharpen your wedge play is, surprise, spend some time refining and practicing your technique. Whether it’s winter rust or mid-season sloppiness, your wedge game can be a serious cause of frustration if and when it goes sour on you.

If you want to be sharp when it really counts, give it some time and attention. Start with a detailed look at your fundamentals – posture, alignment, ball position, grip, and grip pressure – and then advance to an examination of the actual chipping and pitching motion of the swing.

No matter what your skill level might be, I am convinced that time spent on the following drills will yield giant rewards in your scores and enjoyment of the game. There is nothing quite so demoralizing and maddening than to hit a good drive and better-than-average approach shot, then chunk or skull a simple chip or pitch, turning a par or bogie-at-worst into a double or even more.

Core activation

The key to a solid short game is to synchronize your arm swing with the rotation of your body core. They simply have to move together, back and through impact into the follow-through. When I’m about to start a short game session, I like to begin with the club extended in front of my body, with my upper arms close to my chest, then rotate my upper torso back and through, to give me the sensation that I am moving the club only with my core rotation, with the hands only having the job of holding on to it. In this drill, you want to ensure that the clubhead is exactly in front of your sternum as you rotate back and through. When you lower the club into the playing position, this puts the upper end of the grip pointing roughly at your belt buckle and it stays in that “attitude” through the backswing and follow through.

S-L-O-W motion

I believe one of the most misunderstood and destructive pieces of advice in the short game is to “accelerate through the ball”. What I see much too often is that the golfer fails to take a long enough backswing and then quickly jabs at the ball . . . all in the pursuit of “accelerating through the ball.” In reality, that is pretty hard NOT to do if you have any kind of follow through at all. Relying on that core activation move, I like to make very slow swings – back and through impact – experimenting with just how slow I can make the swing and still see some ball flight. You’ll be amazed at how slow a body rotation can be made and still make the ball fly in a nice trajectory.

Windows

I’m borrowing this term from Tiger Woods, who often spoke of hitting his iron shots through certain “windows,” i.e. first floor, second floor, etc. For your short game, I simplify this into hitting short pitch shots on three different flight trajectories – low, medium, and high. I have found the simplest way to do this is to use the same swing for each shot and determine the trajectory by where you place the ball in your set-up. Start by finding the ball position that gives you what you consider to be a “normal” trajectory with your sand wedge. Then, hit some shots with the ball just one inch back and forward of that spot and see what trajectory you get. You can then take that to another level by repeating the process with your other wedges, from your highest lofted to your lowest.

Ladder drill

For this exercise, I like to have some room on the range or practice area that lets me hit balls any distance I want, from ten feet out to about 25 yards, or even more if you can. I start by hitting a basic chip shot to fly precisely to a divot or piece of turf I’ve targeted about ten feet in front of me. The next shot I try to land where that ball stopped. I repeat that process until I have a line of balls from ten feet to 25 or so yards from me. With each shot, I repeat it until I can land my shot within a foot or less of my “target ball.”

The idea of this kind of practice with your short game is to hit so many shots that you feel like you can do anything with the ball, and you can take that confidence and execution skill to the course. You can literally work through a few hundred shots in an hour or so with these drills, and there’s nothing like repetition to build a skill set you can trust “under fire.”

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