Opinion & Analysis

The Day I Got Schooled by an Old Dude

Published

11 years ago

Jan 28, 2013

Oh, I remember THAT day quite well, as you will see. Almost 20 years in the past now and I remember every shot.

It was the day I was shown the difference between intelligently played, well-executed, GOOD golf and…well…whatever it was I was doing at the time. I remember that I was about 17 years old, was playing with a set of hand-me-down clubs and, while I had been playing on my high school’s golf team, had yet to break 80, let alone par. At that point in my life, golf was just for fun, not the harmful obsession it has become currently. Yes… I meant harmful. I know you know what I mean — in a good way.

Anyway, here is some lead-in information for you — everybody likes a little preface, yes?

Growing up in Fort Fairfield, Maine has SOME advantages when you are in high school. Notably, that the drinking age in nearby New Brunswick, Canada is only 19, and everybody and his sister has a fake ID lying handy. So Saturday night is the night where we… um… stay inside and play board games and NOT go to the bars and clubs across the border until 2 a.m. or sometimes 7 a.m. Right? You noticed I said “not,” right?

As it so happened, after my buddies and I finished playing Monopoly (or at least Boardwalk) until 4 a.m., it was now my turn to play designated driver to get everyone home — a responsibility I had loathed all evening long. After all, Boardwalk games can get pretty intense… as you know, and some get spent from the intensity of sedentary competition and in need of help home. So, after dropping off the last of this ill-conceived carpool (you know, the guy who won Park Place?) I found myself deciding between sleep… or golf.

Sunday is pretty slow up in Aroostook County, Maine. It is (I think literally) the section of the United States with the oldest population percentage to be found. Most folks are either off to church or waiting outside the one restaurant left in town to have someone else cook them breakfast. At 5 a.m., Fort Fairfield is a still a ghost town, more or less.

So, I decided I would play golf. I figured I could go out and play nine holes and be back before my parents became unwilling to cook me breakfast. That, and the nice note I left, “Woke up early, out playing golf… be back soon” would SURELY cover up the clandestine board-game sessions my friends and I had the night before. Surely.

So, I pulled the clubs out of the garage, threw them into the back of my pickup truck (yeah, four guys in a two-seater for an hour… not fun) and off to the golf course I went. It was 5 a.m., but because Aroostook Valley Country Club is really in Canada, it was actually 6 a.m. course time. A half-hour before the course officially opened, but I knew the assistant pro and he just waived me up to the tee where, to my surprise, I found another gentlemen just setting down his clubs. I figured no one would have been at the course at that hour, but I was wrong.

The elder gentleman (to be referred to affectionately as Old Dude for the remainder of this article), looked at me in something that might have resembled disbelief and disgust all rolled into one, and gave a look to the pro, who shrugged his shoulders and walked off quickly trying to avert his eyes from the cold glare Old Dude was giving him. I thought to myself, “Oh boy, another grouchy old fart. Maybe he will let me play through.”

As I approach the tee, expectations high (old dudes always play slow right?) he asks me, “And who might you be?” I told him my name without him even looking up to acknowledge the information. Old Dude, I was betting, was a retired potato farmer, and having worked during various harvest breaks (another Aroostook Country tradition where kids take three weeks off from school at the end of September and beginning of October to help out on various farms and come back sporting about $1,000 to $2,000 at the tender age of 12 or so) knew that you don’t mess around with that crowd or get pushy. A man I used to work for could, in his 60s, stack two potato barrels full of ROCKS on top of each other and dead lift them; you know, to make the point with unruly farm hands. I shook his hand once at the end of a season and cracked a bone in my third knuckle!

But, I digress.

So again, I had stated my name, and old dude says, “Yep, I know your father. Milton isn’t it?” My father had been a federal loan officer and worked with farmers in the area.

“Yes, sir,” I said.

“Okay, well pick up those clubs and keep up. I don’t like people behind me.” Oh rats! There goes breakfast back home! He is going to putter around and this will take forever. He was kind of an odd sight too — he appeared to be at least 70, but was wearing jeans, a pair of (real) spikes that looked older than me, no glove and a well-worn cardigan sweater (even though it was late May). He was also carrying his bag, and I didn’t know too many folks that age that didn’t ride carts at our club. Also, his leather MacGregor bag appeared to be pretty old and the faces of his irons were browned at the bottom. In hindsight, there were sooo many signs that I missed that day!

Standing up to the tee (uphill par 4), he gives me the honor: “Tee it up kid… we don’t have all morning.” I hit the nicest slice about two bills down the right side, saved only by the fact that it sliced into the No. 18 fairway, so I still had a look at the green. Old Dude steps up with his persimmon driver and stripes it down the middle to a place I had yet to reach, even at my age on a straight drive… with a metal driver. Caught me totally by surprise, too, because his swing was about half as long as mine and he didn’t even swing hard at it. Sooo…. note to self:

Lesson No. 1: Compact swing and good tempo are better than a haphazard flail.

Who knew?

Two more strokes for me, and I am on the green, which I proceed to three-jack (or three-putt in layman’s terms). Old Dude barely misses his putt for birdie, and walks away with par. On to the second hole – a short par four, blind tee shot over the crest of a small hill.

Old Dude now has the honor. This isn’t a hard hole, but trees do line the sides of it. Old dude pulls what appears to be a semi-rusted 1-iron and fades it off the left side into the fairway. I stand up with driver again and flail it into a collection of trees down the right. As we were walking off the second tee, Old Dude says to me, “You been drinkin’ boy? Helps if you change your clothes once you get home. I can smell it on you even if it ain’t on your breath.”

Whoa! I figured I was going to get sassed into oblivion for that (I should have been), but he just picked up his bag and walked off. As I got to my ball in the trees, Old Dude yells over, “I might have an ax in my truck if you need it.” Great, getting heckled by a man four times my age, first thing in the morning, too. A chip out and pitch on later and I have a 20-footer for par. Old Dude throws a dart into the flag and taps in (with the leading edge of his wedge…grrr) for birdie. I three-jack this green as well. Already I am five strokes down to him in two holes. Nice job, Dan. Not!

Lesson No. 2: Strategy trumps distance.

So, there is no way I was going to beat him now. I never really felt like I wanted to play AGAINST him when we started, but he heckled me, so I was determined to beat him on at least a few holes and get back the honor. Moving onto the par 5 third hole, dogleg left and downhill. I had reached before with a good drive and a 9 iron.

“Go ahead and take the honor while I debate with nature,” he said to me.

OK, time to hit a good drive, and I did. Hit a corker — nice draw that cut the corner. Perfect flight. OK, Old Dude, top that. Old Dude, however, comes back to the tee and pulls a 5-iron and hits it right into the middle of the fairway, still within sight at the top of the dogleg.

Um, what?

My mentality at that time was that any par-five was a two-hitter, and he just hit a mid iron?? Why?

So, we crest the hill and he hits another 5-iron down (to what appeared to be) dead left and short of the green. OK, so he saw my big drive and that must have rocked him a little. Now I just hit it on and get my eagle or birdie. Perfect strategy; failed execution. I thinned my shot, which, to my credit, still ran about 190 yards down hill and into the front green-side bunker. Old Dude has a wry smile at my misfortune, and calmly walks down to his ball and wedges it to the green where it stops within about six feet of the cup (yeah, he made it). I blade my bunker shot and take four more strokes to get down.

He tells me afterward, “You should give up trying to reach this in two. Hit down where I did where you have a clean shot to the pin.”

Um, what?

Lesson No. 3: Position trumps ego.

Hole No. 4, a steep downhill par 3 with a listed yardage of 170. It only plays about a 7 or 8-iron, though. Old Dude steps up with (that darn) 5-iron, and literally chips a shot down off the tee, which runs almost the full distance down to the green. No practice swings, no checking aim-line, no pretense; just drops the ball down onto the turf and chips it. Ball ends up about 18 feet past the pin, but with an uphill putt. I hit a flush 9-iron that the morning wind blows into the bunker on the high side of the green. From then on, it is a repeat of the previous hole (bladed wedge). Old Dude casually takes his two-putt while whistling some made-up tune for my enjoyment.

Um, what?

Lesson No. 4: Don’t make things harder than they have to be (And don’t embarrass your family name by blading two wedges in a row with a witness).

Okay, onto the par-5 No. 5. Dogleg right, to an uphill green. Old Dude still has the honor, so he pulls a persimmon 3-wood out (club looked older than me) and carves a nice pull/fade around the corner. Didn’t throw down a tee this time either. Just drops it down on the bare turf and punches down on it — you could see some turf fly. Ball got maybe 25 feet off the ground and ran like it stole something. I was now tired of hitting it in the junk so I pulled a 3-iron. I pulled it left, down the improper side of the hole and the ball rolled into a grove of trees, the only advantage being that the brush was cut away from the trees so I had an opening.

I punched out to about 8-iron distance from the green. Old Dude, however, was feeling lucky and hits that persimmon driver off the deck just short of the green. Chips it up and down for birdie. I, well, I am not going to tell you what I did on the rest of the hole or you would lose all respect for me. (If you haven’t already!)

Lesson No. 5: Patience is key, know when to go for it and when not to.

At this point, I have lost all face with Old Dude. I could see him make looks like Tiger Woods did when he was paired with Phil Mickelson during the Ryder Cup. (He hit it WHERE?). We hadn’t exchanged a word since the third hole, until he asked me, “How is Milt doin’? He still working for the Farmer’s Home Administration?” Yes, I replied. “Is he teaching you golf?” No, I said. “You go over and ask Sean (the assistant pro at the time) for some lessons. Watching you play is taking years off my life.” He gave a little laugh with it in a transparent attempt to soften the blow, although I knew he totally meant what he said.

Ouch.

But, there was something so pure about the simple honesty of the statement that I didn’t get too “teen” about the way he said it. I actually did go to the assistant pro and take some lessons after that. It was beneficial.

Lesson No. 6: Swallow your pride and recognize good advice when it comes your way — just only take it from good players.

Sixth hole: downhill par 4, dogleg left. Old Dude takes out (that rotten) 5-iron and hits another chip and run down the hill, and then hits a half 8-iron onto the raised green. Got a little unlucky in that he blocked it a little right and had a sharp downhill putt. I hit a nice drive with my (then) normal draw and found myself at the base of the raised green. Turf was wet down there, but I (luckily?) mis-hit the shot high on the face of my wedge, so it still managed to get on the green, resulting in my first par of the day. Old Dude (apparently on purpose) toes his putt down hill off the fringe that rims the cup and rolls about 10 feet further than he deserved. He missed the come-back putt and made bogey. I figured I would see some kind of emotional outburst, given how gruff he had been before, but no. He just picks his ball out of the cup and moves on to the next hole, no different than when he made birdie.

Lesson No. 7: No one cares if you are mad; don;t waste the energy or lose focus

Hole No. 7 – short par 4 with a couple humps in the fairway that drag the ball into the left rough. I finally had the honor under my own steam! Mission accomplished, until my ball found the aforementioned “wash rack” that drained my shot into the left rough behind a bush, essentially blocking me out. Old Dude turns dead right on the tee box and hits his shot (with some iron) about 30 yards right of the fairway onto a shelf in the rough that was trampled down due to the proximity to the Porta-John. Pretty much the only flat lie on the hole. From there he hits a short iron onto the green and two putts. I hack out and bogey out. The honor is now lost much faster than it arrived.

Lesson No. 8: The fairway always isn’t fair. Hit it to the spot that positions you best.

Ahh, the closing stretch. The eighth hole is a short, 155-yard par 3 that is slightly uphill and into a light breeze. Old Dude pulls a 4-iron! Whaaat? Come on! The way he had been hitting the ball, I knew that was way too much club for him. He ended up taking a half swing and hit it to about 15 feet. I totally underestimated the wind, and the uphill part, and tried to power an 8-iron onto the green. The good news is that I only came up about 10 yards short rather than the 20 or so I probably should have. I got lucky on a chip and got up and down, and Old Dude burned the edge of the cup with his putt so we both walked away with par, one of us happier than the other, however.

Lesson No. 9: Don’t be stupid. Hit the shot the conditions require and be informed by more than just yardage.

Now came the final leg of our nine-hole adventure. One of the tougher holes on the course: An uphill par 4 with a dogleg left, into an elevated green, guarded by trees on either side. The green slopes hard towards the fairway. Old Dude steps up with his driver and hits a huge hook, but starts it over the right-side trees. At first I thought he just blocked it, but then it took a hard turn left and dove into the fairway where it ran out quite a bit. I got lucky with another draw and cut off a bit of the left corner into the fairway. I cleared him by about 10 yards, only due to the line. Old Dude could move the ball!

At this point, we are nearing the green with the porch of the clubhouse being nearby. The “breakfast club” was now present on the porch, enjoying its meal and we now had an audience. Old Dude is in the middle of the fairway and hits one of his punchy little irons, which lands in the throat short of the green and runs up onto the front of the green, leaving an uphill putt. I was on the left side of the fairway with eyes for the flag to impress my new audience (who cared more for their ham and eggs than my shabby game. I was 17, remember).

I had to carry an edge of a greenside trap, but I only had 8 iron into the green. Alright, I decided I would hit a cool looking little spinner into the green near the flag and let everyone see that I could back up a ball. (Yeah, I could slice and blade wedges out of bunkers, but still back-up approach shots on greens. Don’t ask me how that works. It still makes no sense to me 20 years later).

So I hit my little spinner over the trap and it lands near the flag just as planned, and then spins back just as planned, and keeps coming back the full length of the green and into the deep greenside bunker which never should have been in play in the first place (not as planned). Old Dude takes his easy two-putt for a round of 2-under, 34 on our nine. I blade another wedge (which flies the green and hits the concession stand at the halfway point – a 130-yard lob wedge!) and not so calmly take an upside-down six in front of my unofficial fans.

Lesson No. 10: Good spin is not always backspin, and don’t play stupid shots to impress people who never cared in the first place.

At this point, you couldn’t have paid me to keep playing that round. I just hung my head, shook hands with Old Dude, and walked back to the clubhouse to mope and sulk and hopefully get a few of the cart girls working at the tables to feel bad for me. That was the first time where I had played golf with a legitimately good player. I totally underestimated him at the beginning because of age, appearances and gear, and I never should have. He was 10 times the player I was. Probably still is; guys like that live forever!

It was depressing at first, being handed my lunch and shown how far I had to progress to be any good at the game, but was also the impetus for me to get better. I got over that experience pretty quick; I took the lessons Old Dude suggested I take from the assistant pro. I also went out and tried to learn all those punchy irons like Old Dude did. I actually figured out how to hit them in time. I also changed my course strategy to allow for more creativity, and more ease of shot making.

Mind you, 1994 is pretty much the beginning years of the Internet, and there wasn’t yet all the knowledge to be readily found as there is now. Also, there wasn’t the proliferation of golf books to be found back then, at least not where I lived — the nearest mall was three hours away! Heck, I didn’t even know who Ben Hogan was back then! Pretty sad, huh? But it was this experience that led to increased interest, practice and research, and (eventually) an overall better game. The one thing I truly regret about the situation (apart from creating a lingering odor of fail around the course that is still present two decades later) is that I never got Old Dude’s name. He kept playing after nine holes while I sulked my way off the green.

I was a little uncomfortable around him, as you likely have gathered. I assumed he was a farmer from the area. If you have ever met one of these gentlemen before, they can be a demanding and intimidating lot –- years of physical labor with every season being the difference between a livelihood and the poorhouse. Makes for tough characters, and when you are 17, sometimes the best you can do is keep your mouth shut, which I did. I mentioned Old Dude to my dad, but he unfortunately couldn’t put a name to him.

There is one more lesson to be learned here, and that is if you don’t vary whom you play with from time to time, you will never have the type of experiences like the one I just shared with you. You don’t have to ditch your friends, but every once in a while, you might consider asking to play a round with an unknown “old dude” and learn your own lessons. Get schooled GolfWRX!

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 PGA Championship betting preview: Rising star ready to join the immortals at Valhalla

Published

5 days ago

May 13, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

The second major of the 2024 season is upon us as the world’s best players will tee it up this week at Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville, Kentucky to compete for the Wanamaker Trophy.

The last time we saw Valhalla host a major championship, Rory McIlroy fended off Phil Mickelson, Henrik Stenson, Rickie Fowler and the creeping darkness that was descending upon the golf course. The Northern Irishman had the golf world in the palm of his hand, joining only Tiger Woods and Jack Nicklaus as players who’d won four major championships by the time they were 25 years old.

Valhalla is named after the great hall described in Norse mythology where the souls of Vikings feasted and celebrated with the Gods. The course is a Jack Nicklaus-design that has ranked among Golf Digest’s “America’s 100 Greatest Courses” for three decades.

Valhalla Golf Club is a par-71 measuring 7,542 yards with Zoysia fairways and Bentgrass greens. The course has rolling hills and dangerous streams scattered throughout and the signature 13th hole is picturesque with limestone and unique bunkering protecting the green. The 2024 PGA Championship will mark the fourth time Valhalla has hosted the event.

The field this week will consist of 156 players, including 16 PGA Champions and 33 Major Champions.

Past Winners of the PGA Championship

2023: Brooks Koepka (-9) Oak Hill
2022: Justin Thomas (-5) Southern Hills
2021: Phil Mickelson (-6) Kiawah Island
2020: Collin Morikawa (-13) TPC Harding Park
2019: Brooks Koepka (-8) Bethpage Black
2018: Brooks Koepka (-16) Bellerive
2017: Justin Thomas (-8) Quail Hollow
2016: Jimmy Walker (-14) Baltusrol
2015: Jason Day (-20) Whistling Straits
2014: Rory McIlroy (-16) Valhalla

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).

Key Stats For Valhalla

Let’s take a look at five key metrics for Oak Hill to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their past 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Valhalla will play as a true all-around test of golf for the world’s best. Of course, it will take strong approach play to win a major championship.

Strokes Gained: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

Shane Lowry (+1.25)
Scottie Scheffler (+1.09)
Jordan Smith (+1.05)
Tom Hoge (+.96)
Corey Conners (+.94)

2. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Valhalla will play long and the rough will be penal. Players who are incredibly short off the tee and/or have a hard time hitting fairways will be all but eliminated from contention this week at the PGA Championship.

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Over Past 24 Rounds:

Bryson DeChambeau (+1.47)
Scottie Scheffler (+1.11)
Keith Mitchell (+.90)
Alejandro Tosti (+.89)
Ludvig Aberg (+.82)

Strokes Gained: Total on Nickalus Designs

Valhalla is a classic Nicklaus Design. Players who play well at Nicklaus designs should have an advantage coming into this major championship.

Strokes Gained: Total on Nicklaus Designs over past 36 rounds:

Jon Rahm (+2.56)
Scottie Scheffler (+2.48)
Patrick Cantlay (+2.35)
Collin Morikawa (+1.79)
Shane Lowry (+1.57)

Strokes Gained: Tee to Green on Very Long Courses

Valhalla is going to play extremely long this week. Players who have had success playing very long golf courses should be better equipped to handle the conditions of this major championship.

Strokes Gained: Total on Very Long Courses Over Past 24 Rounds:

Scottie Scheffler (+2.44)
Rory McIlroy (+2.24)
Will Zalatoris (+1.78)
Viktor Hovland (+1.69)
Xander Schauffele (+1.60)

Strokes Gained: Total in Major Championships

One factor that tends to play a large role in deciding major championships is which players have played well in previous majors leading up to the event.

Strokes Gained: Total in Major Championships over past 20 rounds:

Scottie Scheffler (+3.14)
Will Zalatoris (+2.64)
Rory McIlroy (+2.49)
Xander Schauffele (+2.48)
Tommy Fleetwood (2.09)

Strokes Gained: Putting on Bentgrass Greens

Valhalla features pure Bentgrass putting surfaces. Players who are comfortable putting on this surface will have an advantage on the greens.

Strokes Gained: Putting on Bentgrass Greens over Past 24 Rounds:

Ludvig Aberg (+1.12)
Denny McCarthy (+1.08)
Matt Fitzpatrick (+0.99)
Justin Rose (+0.93)
J.T. Poston (0.87)

Strokes Gained: Total on Zoysia Fairways

Valhalla features Zoysia fairways. Players who are comfortable playing on this surface will have an advantage on the field.

Strokes Gained: Total on Zoysia Fairways over past 36 rounds:

Justin Thomas (+1.53)
Will Zalatoris (+1.47)
Xander Schauffele (+1.40)
Brooks Koepka (+1.35)
Rory McIlroy (+1.23)

2024 PGA Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (25%), SG: Off the Tee (22%), SG: T2G on Very Long Courses (12%), SG: Putting on Bentgrass (+12%), SG: Total on Nicklaus Designs (12%). SG: Total on Zoysia Fairways (8%), and SG: Total in Major Championships (8%).

Brooks Koepka
Xander Schauffele
Rory McIlroy
Scottie Scheffler
Bryson DeChambeau
Shane Lowry
Alex Noren
Will Zalatoris
Cameron Young
Keith Mitchell
Hideki Matsuyama
Billy Horschel
Patrick Cantlay
Viktor Hovland
Adam Schenk
Chris Kirk
Sahith Theegala
Min Woo Lee
Joaquin Niemann
Justin Thomas

2024 PGA Championship Picks

Ludvig Aberg +1800 (BetMGM)

At The Masters, Ludvig Aberg announced to the golf world that he’s no longer an “up and coming” player. He’s one of the best players in the game of golf, regardless of experience.

Augusta National gave Aberg some necessary scar tissue and showed him what being in contention at a major championship felt like down the stretch. Unsurprisingly, he made a costly mistake, hitting it in the water left of the 11th hole, but showed his resilience by immediately bouncing back. He went on to birdie two of his next three holes and finished in solo second by three shots. With the type of demeanor that remains cool in pressure situations, I believe Ludvig has the right mental game to win a major at this point in his career.

Aberg has not finished outside of the top-25 in his past eight starts, which includes two runner-up finishes at both a “Signature Event” and a major championship. The 24-year-old is absolutely dominant with his driver, which will give him a major advantage this week. In the field he ranks, in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, and has gained strokes in the category in each of his past ten starts. Aberg is already one of the best drivers of the golf ball on the planet.

In Norse mythology, Valhalla is the great hall where the souls of Vikings feasted and celebrated with the Gods. The Swedes, who are of Old Norse origin, were the last of the three Scandinavian Kingdoms to abandon the Old Norse Gods. A Swede played a major role in the 2014 PGA Championship at Valhalla, and I believe another, Ludvig Aberg, will be the one to conquer Valhalla in 2024.

Bryson DeChambeau +2800 (BetMGM)

Bryson DeChambeau is one of the few players in the world that I believe has the game to go blow-for-blow with Scottie Scheffler. Although he isn’t as consistent as Scheffler, when he’s at his best, Bryson has the talent to beat him.

At The Masters, DeChambeau put forth a valiant effort at a golf course that simply does not suit his game. Valhalla, on the other hand, is a course that should be perfect for the 30-year-old. His ability to overpower a golf course with his driver will be a serious weapon this week.

Bryson has had some success at Jack Nicklaus designs throughout his career as he won the Memorial at Muirfield Village back in 2018. He’s also had incredible results on Bentgrass greens for the entirety of his professional career. Of his 10 wins, nine of them have come on Bentgrass greens, with the only exception being the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill. He also has second place finishes at Medinah and TPC Summerlin, which feature Bentgrass greens.

Love him or hate him, it’s impossible to argue that Bryson isn’t one of the most exciting and important players in the game of golf. He’s also one of the best players in the world. A second major is coming soon for DeChambeau, and I believe he should be amongst the favorites to hoist the Wanamaker Trophy this week.

Patrick Cantlay +4000 (FanDuel)

There’s no way of getting around it: Patrick Cantlay has been dissapointing in major championships throughout his professional career. He’s been one of the top players on Tour for a handful of years and has yet to truly contend at a major championship, with the arguable exception of the 2019 Masters.

Despite not winning majors, Cantlay has won some big events. The 32-year-old has won two BMW Championships, two Memorial Tournaments as well as a Tour Championship. His victories at Memorial indicate how much Cantlay loves Nicklaus designs, where he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Total over his past 36 rounds behind only Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm.

Cantlay also loves Bentgrass greens. Six of Cantlay’s seven individual wins on the PGA Tour have come on Bentgrass greens and he also was one of the best putters at the 2023 Ryder cup at Marco Simone (also Bentgrass). At Caves Valley (2021 BMW Championship), he gained over 12 strokes putting to outduel another Bentgrass specialist, Bryson DeChambeau.

Cantlay finished 22nd in The Masters, which was a solid result considering how many elite players struggled that week. He also has two top-ten finishes in his past five PGA Championships. He’s undeniably one of the best players in the field, therefore, it comes down to believing Cantlay has the mental fortitude to win a major, which I do.

Joaquin Niemann +4000 (BetMGM)

I believe Joaquin Niemann is one of the best players in the world. He has three worldwide wins since December and has continued to improve over the course of his impressive career thus far. Still only 25, the Chilean has all the tools to be a serious contender in major championships for years to come.

Niemann has been the best player on LIV this season. Plenty will argue with the format or source of the money on LIV, but no one can argue that beating players such as Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau, Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka and Cameron Smith is an unremarkable achievement. Niemann is an elite driver of the golf ball who hits it farther than just about anyone in the field not named Bryson DeChambeau or (arguably) Rory McIlroy.

Niemann is another player who has been fantastic throughout his career on Bentgrass greens. Prior to leaving the PGA Tour, Bentgrass was the only green surface in which Joaco was a positive putter. It’s clearly a surface that he is very comfortable putting on and should fare around and on the greens this week.

Niemann is a perfect fit for Valhalla. His low and penetrating ball flight will get him plenty of runout this week on the fairways and he should have shorter shots into the green complexes than his competitors. To this point in his career, the former top ranked amateur in the world (2018) has been underwhelming in major championships, but I don’t believe that will last much longer. Joaquin Niemann is a major championship caliber player and has a real chance to contend this week at Valhalla.

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 2

Published

1 week ago

May 9, 2024

Terry Koehler

In my last post, I explained the basic performance dynamics of “smash factor” and “gear effect” as they apply to your wedges and your wedge play success. If you missed that post, you can read it here.

At the end of that post, I promised “part 2” of this discussion of what makes a wedge work the way it does. So, let’s dive into the other two components of any wedge – the shaft and the grip.

It’s long been said that the shaft is “the engine of the golf club.” The shaft (and grip) are your only connection to all the technologies that are packed into the head of any golf club, whether it be a driver, fairway, hybrid, iron, wedge or even putter.

And you cannot ignore those two components of your wedges if your goal is optimizing your performance.

I’ve long been an advocate of what I call a “seamless transition” from your irons into your wedges, so that the feel and performance do not disconnect when you choose a gap wedge, for example, instead of your iron-set-matching “P-club.” In today’s golf equipment marketplace, more and more golfers are making the investment of time and money to experience an iron fitting, going through trial and error and launch monitor measuring to get just the right shaft in their irons.

But then so many of those same golfers just go into a store and choose wedges off the retail display, with no similar science involved at all. And that’s why I see so many golfers with a huge disconnect between their custom-fitted irons, often with lighter and/or softer graphite or light steel shafts . . . and their off-the-rack wedges with the stock stiff steel ‘wedge flex’ shaft common to those stock offerings.

If your wedge shafts are significantly heavier and stiffer than the shafts in your irons, it is physically impossible for you to make the same swing. Period.

To quickly improve your wedge play, one of the first things you can do is have your wedges re-shafted with the same or similar shaft that is in your irons.

There’s another side of that shaft weight equation; if you don’t have the forearm and hand strength of a PGA Tour professional, you simply cannot “handle” the same weight shaft that those guys play to master the myriad of ‘touch shots’ around the greens.

Now, let’s move on to the third and other key component of your wedges – the grips. If those are not similar in shape and feel to the grips on your irons, you have another disconnect. Have your grips checked by a qualified golf club professionals to make sure you are in sync there.

The one caveat to that advice is that I am a proponent of a reduced taper in your wedge grips – putting two to four more layers of tape under the lower hand, or selecting one of the many reduced taper grips on the market. That accomplishes two goals for your scoring.

First, it helps reduce overactive hands in your full and near-full wedge swings. Quiet hands are key to good wedge shots.

And secondly, it provides a more consistent feel of the wedge in your hands as you grip down for those shorter and more delicate shots around the greens. And you should always grip down as you get into those touch shots. I call it “getting closer to your work.”

So, if you will spend as much time selecting the shafts and grips for your wedges as you do choosing the brand, model, and loft of them, your scoring range performance will get better.

Vincenzi’s 2024 Wells Fargo Championship betting preview: Tommy Fleetwood ready to finally land maiden PGA Tour title

Published

2 weeks ago

May 6, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

The PGA Tour season ramps back up this week for another “signature event,” as golf fans look forward to the year’s second major championship next week.

After two weaker-field events in the Zurich Classic and the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, most of the best players in the world will head to historic Quail Hollow for one of the best non-major tournaments of the year.

Last season, Wyndham Clark won the event by four shots.

Quail Hollow is a par-71 measuring 7,521 yards that features Bermudagrass greens. The tree-lined, parkland style course can play quite difficult and features one of the most difficult three-hole stretches in golf known as “The Green Mile,” which makes up holes 16-18: two mammoth par 4s and a 221-yard par 3. All three holes have an average score over par, and water is in play in each of the last five holes on the course.

The field is excellent this week with 68 golfers teeing it up without a cut. All of the golfers who’ve qualified are set to tee it up, with the exception of Scottie Scheffler, who is expecting the birth of his first child.

Past Winners at Quail Hollow

2023: Wyndham Clark (-19)
2022: Max Homa (-8)
2021: Rory McIlroy (-10)
2019: Max Homa (-15)
2018: Jason Day (-12)
2017: Justin Thomas (-8) (PGA Championship)
2016: James Hahn (-9)
2015: Rory McIlroy (-21)

Key Stats For Quail Hollow

Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes gained: Approach will be extremely important this week as second shots at Quail Hollow can be very difficult.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

Akshay Bhatia (+1.16)
Tom Hoge (+1.12)
Corey Conners (+1.01)
Shane Lowry (+0.93)
Austin Eckroat (+0.82)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Quail Hollow is a long course on which it is important to play from the fairway. Both distance and accuracy are important, as shorter tee shots will result in approach shots from 200 or more yards. With most of the holes heavily tree lined, errant drives will create some real trouble for the players.

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Past 24 Rounds:

Ludvig Aberg (+0.73)
Rory McIlroy (+0.69)
Xander Schauffele (+0.62)
Viktor Hovland (+0.58)
Chris Kirk (+0.52)

Proximity: 175-200

The 175-200 range is key at Quail Hollow. Players who can hit their long irons well will rise to the top of the leaderboard.

Proximity: 175-200+ over past 24 rounds:

Cameron Young (28’2″)
Akshay Bhatia (29’6″)
Ludvig Aberg (+30’6″)
Sam Burns (+30’6″)
Collin Morikawa (+30’9″)

SG: Total on Tom Fazio Designs

Players who thrive on Tom Fazio designs get a bump for me at Quail Hollow this week.

SG: Total on Tom Fazio Designs over past 36 rounds:

Patrick Cantlay (+2.10)
Rory McIlroy (+1.95)
Tommy Fleetwood (+1.68)
Austin Eckroat (+1.60)
Will Zalatoris (+1.57)

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)

Strokes Gained: Putting has historically graded out as the most important statistic at Quail Hollow. While it isn’t always predictable, I do want to have it in the model to bump up golfers who prefer to putt on Bermudagrass.

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass) Over Past 24 Rounds:

Taylor Moore (+0.82)
Nick Dunlap (+.76)
Wyndham Clark (+.69)
Emiliano Grillo (+.64)
Cam Davis (+.61)

Course History

This stat will incorporate players that have played well in the past at Quail Hollow.

Course History over past 36 rounds (per round):

Rory McIlroy (+2.50)
Justin Thomas (+1.96)
Jason Day (+1.92)
Rickie Fowler (+1.83)
Viktor Hovland (+1.78)

Wells Fargo Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: Off the Tee (23%), SG: Total on Fazio designs (12%), Proximity: 175-200 (12%), SG: Putting Bermuda grass (12%), and Course History (14%).

Wyndham Clark
Rory McIlroy
Xander Schauffele
Shane Lowry
Hideki Matsuyama
Viktor Hovland
Cameron Young
Austin Eckroat
Byeong Hun An
Justin Thomas

2024 Wells Fargo Championship Picks

Tommy Fleetwood +2500 (DraftKings)

I know many out there have Tommy fatigue when it comes to betting, which is completely understandable given his lack of ability to win on the PGA Tour thus far in his career. However, history has shown us that players with Fleetwood’s talent eventually break though, and I believe for Tommy, it’s just a matter of time.

Fleetwood has been excellent on Tom Fazio designs. Over his past 36 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Fazio tracks. He’s also been incredibly reliable off the tee this season. He’s gained strokes in the category in eight of his past nine starts, including at The Masters, the PLAYERS and the three “signature events” of the season. Tommy is a golfer built for tougher courses and can grind it out in difficult conditions.

Last year, Fleetwood was the first-round leader at this event, firing a Thursday 65. He finished the event in a tie for 5th place.

For those worried about Fleetwood’s disappointing start his last time out at Harbour Town, he’s bounced back nicely after plenty of poor outings this season. His T7 at the Valero Texas Open was after a MC and T35 in his prior two starts and his win at the Dubai Invitational came after a T47 at the Sentry.

I expect Tommy to bounce back this week and contend at Quail Hollow.

Justin Thomas +3000 (DraftKings)

It’s been a rough couple of years for Justin Thomas, but I don’t believe things are quite as bad as they seem for JT. He got caught in the bad side of the draw at Augusta for last month’s Masters and has gained strokes on approach in seven of his nine starts in 2024.

Thomas may have found something in his most recent start at the RBC Heritage. He finished T5 at a course that he isn’t the best fit for on paper. He also finally got the putter working and ranked 15th in Strokes Gained: Putting for the week.

The two-time PGA champion captured the first of his two major championships at Quail Hollow back in 2017, and some good vibes from the course may be enough to get JT out of his slump.

Thomas hasn’t won an event in just about two years. However, I still believe that will change soon as he’s been one of the most prolific winners throughout his PGA Tour career. Since 2015, he has 15 PGA Tour wins.

Course history is pretty sticky at Quail Hollow, with players who like the course playing well there on a regular basis. In addition to JT’s PGA Championship win in 2017, he went 4-1 at the 2022 Presidents Cup and finished T14 at the event last year despite being in poor form. Thomas can return as one of the top players on the PGA Tour with a win at a “signature event” this week.

Cameron Young +3500 (DraftKings)

For many golf bettors, it’s been frustrating backing Cam Young this season. His talent is undeniable, and one of the best and most consistent performers on the PGA Tour. He just hasn’t broken through with a victory yet. Quail Hollow has been a great place for elite players to get their first victory. Rory McIlroy, Anthony Kim, Rickie Fowler and Wyndham Clark all notched their first PGA Tour win at Quail.

Throughout Cam Young’s career, he has thrived at tougher courses with strong fields. This season, he finished T16 at Riviera and T9 at Augusta National, demonstrating his preference of a tough test. His ability to hit the ball long and straight off the tee make him an ideal fit for Quail Hollow, despite playing pretty poorly his first time out in 2023 (T59). Young should be comfortable playing in the region as he played his college golf at Wake Forest, which is about an hour’s drive from Quail Hollow.

The 26-year-old has played well at Tom Fazio designs in the past and ranks 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on those courses in his last 36 rounds. Perhaps most importantly, this season, Young is the best player on the PGA Tour in terms of proximity from 175-200 in the fairway, which is where a plurality and many crucial shots will come from this week.

Young is an elite talent and Quail Hollow has been kind to players of his ilk who’ve yet to win on Tour.

Byeong Hun An +5000 (FanDuel)

Byeong Hun An missed some opportunities last weekend at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. He finished T4 and played some outstanding golf, but a couple of missed short putts prevented him from getting to the winning score of -23. Despite not getting the win, it’s hard to view An’s performance as anything other than an overwhelming success. It was An’s fourth top-ten finish of the season.

Last week, An gained 6.5 strokes ball striking, which was 7th in the field. He also ranked 12th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th for Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. The South Korean has been hitting the ball so well from tee to green all season long and he now heads to a golf course that should reward his precision.

An’s driver and long irons are absolute weapons. At Quail Hollow, players will see plenty of approach shots from the 175-200 range as well as some from 200+. In his past 24 rounds, Ben ranks 3rd in the field in proximity from 175-200 and 12th in proximity from 200+. Playing in an event that will not end up being a “birdie” fest should help An, who can separate from the field with his strong tee to green play. The putter may not always cooperate but getting to -15 is much easier than getting to -23 for elite ball strikers who tend to struggle on the greens.

Winning a “signature event” feels like a tall task for An this week with so many elite players in the field. However, he’s finished T16 at the Genesis Invitational, T16 at The Masters and T8 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The 32-year-old’s game has improved drastically this season and I believe he’s ready to get the biggest win of his career.

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