Opinion & Analysis

Dustin Johnson: Mr. Consistency

Published

11 years ago

Jan 9, 2013

When you think Dustin Johnson, you think raw power.

You think majestic, soaring drives, like the kind he hit to win the 2013 Hyundai Tournament of Champions by four shots over defending champion Steve Stricker and lead the field in driving distance (307 yards). You think jaw-dropping, monster bombs off the tee like his drive Monday at the par-4, 420-yard 12th hole, which traveled a non-mortal 405 yards. When you think Dustin Johnson, you think of 400 yard drives you wish you could hit just once in your lifetime, let alone 12 times since 2003 like Johnson has — more than anyone else on Tour.

But what you really should be thinking is “consistency.”

Mr. Consistency

Dustin Johnson is the Tour’s “Mr. Consistency.”

Now I know what you’re thinking. How can the big hitting Johnson be “Mr. Consistency” when he’s Jekyll & Hyde with the big stick? After all, while Johnson led the field at Kapalua in driving distance, he also finished dead last in fairways hit (51 percent). But consider the following:

With his victory in the 2013 season opener, Johnson became the first player since Tiger Woods (1996 – 2001) to win six consecutive years straight out of college (2008 – 2013). Johnson’s won at least one Tour event in each of the last six seasons, the second longest active streak on Tour behind only Phil Mickelson’s nine (2004 – 2012). And Johnson leads players in their 20s with seven career Tour wins. Players under the age of 30 with three or more victories on Tour include Johnson (7), Rory McIlroy (6), Anthony Kim (3), Webb Simpson (3) and Keegan Bradley (3).

Simply put, Johnson is Mr. Consistency because he wins as regularly as anyone on Tour. And not even poignant images of Johnson’s Pebble Beach triple-bogey meltdown on No. 2 at the 2010 U.S Open, or the eraser marks on Johnson’s 2010 PGA Championship scorecard on No. 18 at Whistling Straits can change that. Johnson’s seventh career Tour win certainly speaks volumes about what he’s accomplished to this point.

In four career attempts carrying the lead into a final round, Johnson had now won twice. He’s also finished in the top 15 of the FedExCup standings in each of the last four years, and inside the top 10 in each of the last three seasons on Tour. But what might be most telling about Johnson’s Hawaiian victory (16-under, 203) in the 2013 season opener, is where Johnson goes from here, and why.

Dipped In Teflon

If you believe Johnson, he never got rattled at the 2010 U.S. Open, and never lost his composure. Whether he’s telling the truth or not? Maybe only Johnson knows for sure. But to his credit, Johnson managed to regroup and win the BMW Championship later that year. And he’s developed a reputation since for routinely coming back from disastrous situations. At the very least, Johnson is uncommonly resilient.

Johnson’s agent David Winkle says Johnson was “dipped in Teflon at birth.” And that’s what explains how Johnson follows up major catastrophes with impressive triumphs. Johnson’s coach, Butch Harmon, likens Johnson to a duck whose back repels water. Analogies aside, you only need to look at the sequence of adventures yesterday on The Plantation Course, holes No. 12 and No. 13, to witness Johnson’s poise.

On No. 12, Johnson’s judgment was questioned when he pulled out driver, when the safe play would have been 3 iron off the tee. And after Johnson unceremoniously hooked his ball into bushes and tall grass behind a fairway bunker, hushed whispers of another potential Johnson meltdown trickled through the crowd.

Johnson tried unsuccessfully to punch it out of the vegetation, and required a third shot to finally get out of trouble. But when all was said and done, Johnson took a double-bogey, and saw his lead over Stricker shrink to just one stroke with six holes to play.

Live By The Driver, Die By The Driver

One of the biggest complaints about Johnson’s game has always been his decision making. Critics say they can live with errant shots off the tee when Johnson uses driver for holes that call for driver. But when holes call for another club off the tee, and Johnson elects driver anyway, finding unnecessary hazards or worse? That’s when Johnson’s decision making, judgment, and even maturity are called into question.

After Johnson hit what might have been his worst drive of the tournament on No. 13, everyone on Kapalua Island was expecting Johnson to hit iron on the drivable par-4 14th. But instead, Johnson again pulled out his driver.

“I’ve done it enough times that it doesn’t really bother me anymore,” Johnson said after the round. “I’ve been in this situation enough now and I’ve made enough double-bogeys in my life.”

That’s the fearlessness Johnson plays with. That’s the confidence Johnson has in his driver. That’s the resliency Johnson commands to bounce back from disaster. And that’s also why we love to watch Johnson play. Though Johnson’s critics say that’s the foolish part of the game that will keep failing him when the pressure is higher at major championships.

But on this blustery Hawaiin Monday in January, with the tournament on the line, Johnson ripped his drive down the middle of the fairway, only 50 feet from the pin. And when he fired in an eagle chip to go back up three strokes, Johnson showed his detractors he’s always going to trust the club that defines him.

“The chip on 14 was definitely the biggest shot,” Johnson said. “Maybe the drive, the drive set it up all.”

Worth The Wait

The question now remains — can Johnson parlay this Pacific swell of momentum to start the season into his first major championship victory?

“I don’t really look ahead that far,” Johnson said. “I kind of go week-to-week. I’m looking at next week where I want to go in and play three good rounds and then contend on Sunday for another victory. That’s my goal.”

Until Johnson wins a major, fairly or not, he won’t be able to escape being known for his 2010 major meltdowns. But shots Johnson wished he could have made in 2010, he can make today. And Johnson’s worked diligently with Harmon to become a better short game player than he was in 2010.

Johnson’s still about power, but his arsenal now also includes finesse. Johnson’s simply in a better place to win a major in 2013 than he was in 2010. And in that regard, maybe most importantly, Johnson seems to understand that you need to experience past failures before you can move on to present and future successes. Rory needed them. Even Tiger and Jack needed them.

“Most of the guys out here, especially a lot of good players, they’ve all gone through the same thing,” Johnson said. “They’ve all done it. It’s a learning process that I think everybody is going to go through at least once in their career. So you can’t look at it as a bad thing.”

Johnson’s never been healthier, stronger, or more dedicated than he is this season. He played six rounds at The Plantation Course to prepare for the event. And Johnson knows good things are on the horizon.

“If I keep playing golf like I’m playing right now, then obviously there is no limit,” Johnson said.

With experience and resiliency also on his side in 2013, and that storied power still locked and loaded, Johnson expects to once and for all remove himself this season from discussions about the best player on Tour yet to win a major.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s LIV Golf Singapore betting preview: Course specialist ready to thrive once again

Published

4 days ago

Apr 30, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

After another strong showing in Australia, LIV Golf will head to Sentosa Golf Club in Singapore looking to build off of what was undoubtedly their best event to date.

Sentosa Golf Club sits on the southern tip of Singapore and is one of the most beautiful courses in the world. The course is more than just incredible scenically; it was also rated 55th in Golf Digest’s top-100 courses in 2022-2023 and has been consistently regarded as one of the best courses in Asia. Prior to being part of the LIV rotation, the course hosted the Singapore Open every year since 2005.

Sentosa Golf Club is a par 71 measuring 7,406 yards. The course will require precise ball striking and some length off the tee. It’s possible to go low due to the pristine conditions, but there are also plenty of hazards and difficult spots on the course that can bring double bogey into play in a hurry. The Bermudagrass greens are perfectly manicured, and the course has spent millions on the sub-air system to keep the greens rolling fast. I spoke to Asian Tour player, Travis Smyth, who described the greens as “the best [he’s] ever played.”

Davis Love III, who competed in a Singapore Open in 2019, also gushed over the condition of the golf course.

“I love the greens. They are fabulous,” the 21-time PGA Tour winner said.

Love III also spoke about other aspects of the golf course.

“The greens are great; the fairways are perfect. It is a wonderful course, and it’s tricky off the tee.”

“It’s a long golf course, and you get some long iron shots. It takes somebody hitting it great to hit every green even though they are big.”

As Love III said, the course can be difficult off the tee due to the length of the course and the trouble looming around every corner. It will take a terrific ball striking week to win at Sentosa Golf Club.

In his pre-tournament press conference last season, Phil Mickelson echoed many of the same sentiments.

“To play Sentosa effectively, you’re going to have a lot of shots from 160 to 210, a lot of full 6-, 7-, 8-iron shots, and you need to hit those really well and you need to drive the ball well.”

Golfers who excel from tee to green and can dial in their longer irons will have a massive advantage this week.

Stat Leaders at LIV Golf Adelaide:

Fairways Hit

1.) Louis Oosthuizen

2.) Anirban Lahiri

3.) Jon Rahm

4.) Brendan Steele

5.) Cameron Tringale

Greens in Regulation

1.) Brooks Koepka

2.) Brendan Steele

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Cameron Tringale

5.) Anirban Lahiri

Birdies Made

1.) Brendan Steele

2.) Dean Burmester

3.) Thomas Pieters

4.) Patrick Reed

5.) Carlos Ortiz

LIV Golf Individual Standings:

1.) Joaquin Niemann

2.) Jon Rahm

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Louis Oosthuizen

5.) Abraham Ancer

LIV Golf Team Standings:

1.) Crushers

2.) Legion XIII

3.) Torque

4.) Stinger GC

5.) Ripper GC

LIV Golf Singapore Picks

Sergio Garcia +3000 (DraftKings)

Sergio Garcia is no stranger to Sentosa Golf Club. The Spaniard won the Singapore Open in 2018 by five strokes and lost in a playoff at LIV Singapore last year to scorching hot Talor Gooch. Looking at the course setup, it’s no surprise that a player like Sergio has played incredible golf here. He’s long off the tee and is one of the better long iron players in the world when he’s in form. Garcia is also statistically a much better putter on Bermudagrass than he is on other putting surfaces. He’s putt extremely well on Sentosa’s incredibly pure green complexes.

This season, Garcia has two runner-up finishes, both of them being playoff losses. Both El Camaleon and Doral are courses he’s had success at in his career. The Spaniard is a player who plays well at his tracks, and Sentosa is one of them. I believe Sergio will get himself in the mix this week. Hopefully the third time is a charm in Singapore.

Paul Casey +3300 (FanDuel)

Paul Casey is in the midst of one of his best seasons in the five years or so. The results recently have been up and down, but he’s shown that when he’s on a golf course that suits his game, he’s amongst the contenders.

This season, Casey has finishes of T5 (LIV Las Vegas), T2 (LIV Hong Kong), and a 6th at the Singapore Classic on the DP World Tour. At his best, the Englishman is one of the best long iron players in the world, which makes him a strong fit for Sentosa. Despite being in poor form last season, he was able to fire a Sunday 63, which shows he can low here at the course.

It’s been three years since Casey has won a tournament (Omega Dubai Desert Classic in 2021), but he’s been one of the top players on LIV this season and I think he can get it done at some point this season.

Mito Pereira +5000 (Bet365)

Since Mito Pereira’s unfortunate demise at the 2022 PGA Championship, he’s been extremely inconsistent. However, over the past few months, the Chilean has played well on the International Series as well as his most recent LIV start. Mito finished 8th at LIV Adelaide, which was his best LIV finish this season.

Last year, Pereira finished 5th at LIV Singapore, shooting fantastic rounds of 67-66-66. It makes sense why Mito would like Sentosa, as preeminent ball strikers tend to rise to the challenge of the golf course. He’s a great long iron player who is long and straight off the tee.

Mito has some experience playing in Asia and is one of the most talented players on LIV who’s yet to get in the winner’s circle. I have questions about whether or not he can come through once in contention, but if he gets there, I’m happy to roll the dice.

Andy Ogletree +15000 (DraftKings)

Andy Ogletree is a player I expected to have a strong 2024 but struggled early in his first full season on LIV. After failing to crack the top-25 in any LIV event this year, the former U.S. Amateur champion finally figured things out, finished in a tie for 3rd at LIV Adelaide.

Ogletree should be incredible comfortable playing in Singapore. He won the International Series Qatar last year and finished T3 at the International Series Singapore. The 26-year-old was arguably the best player on the Asian Tour in 2023 and has been fantastic in the continent over the past 18 months.

If Ogletree has indeed found form, he looks to be an amazing value at triple-digit odds.

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Lessons from the worst golf instructor in America

Published

4 days ago

Apr 30, 2024

Brendan Ryan

In Tampa, there is a golf course that boasts carts that do not work, a water range, and a group of players none of which have any chance to break 80. The course is overseen by a staff of crusty men who have succeeded at nothing in life but ending up at the worst-run course in America. However, this place is no failure. With several other local courses going out of business — and boasting outstanding greens — the place is booked full.

While I came for the great greens, I stayed to watch our resident instructor; a poor-tempered, method teacher who caters to the hopeless. At first, it was simply hilarious. However, after months of listening and watching, something clicked. I realized I had a front-row seat to the worst golf instructor in America.

Here are some of my key takeaways.

Method Teacher

It is widely accepted that there are three types of golf instructors: system teachers, non-system teachers, and method teachers. Method teachers prescribe the same antidote for each student based on a preamble which teachers can learn in a couple day certification.

Method teaching allows anyone to be certified. This process caters to the lowest caliber instructor, creating the illusion of competency. This empowers these underqualified instructors with the moniker of “certified” to prey on the innocent and uninformed.

The Cult of Stack and Jilt

The Stack and Tilt website proudly boasts, “A golfer swings his hands inward in the backswing as opposed to straight back to 1) create power, similar to a field goal kicker moving his leg in an arc and 2) to promote a swing that is in-to-out, which produces a draw (and eliminates a slice).”

Now, let me tell you something, there is this law of the universe which says “energy can either be created or destroyed,” so either these guys are defying physics or they have no idea what they are taking about. Further, the idea that the first move of the backswing determines impact is conjecture with a splash of utter fantasy.

These are the pontifications of a method — a set of prescriptions applied to everyone with the hope of some success through the placebo effect. It is one thing for a naive student to believe, for a golf instructor to drink and then dispel this Kool-Aid is malpractice.

Fooled by Randomness

In flipping a coin, or even a March Madness bet, there is a 50-50 chance of success. In golf, especially for new players, results are asymmetric. Simply put: Anything can happen. The problem is that when bad instructors work with high handicappers, each and every shot gets its own diagnosis and prescription. Soon the student is overwhelmed.

Now here’s the sinister thing: The overwhelming information is by design. In this case, the coach is not trying to make you better, they are trying to make you reliant on them for information. A quasi Stockholm syndrome of codependency.

Practice

One of the most important scientists of the 20th century was Ivan Pavlov. As you might recall, he found that animals, including humans, could be conditioned into biological responses. In golf, the idea of practice has made millions of hackers salivate that they are one lesson or practice session from “the secret.”

Sunk Cost

The idea for the worst golf instructor is to create control and dependency so that clients ignore the sunk cost of not getting better. Instead, they are held hostage by the idea that they are one lesson or tip away from unlocking their potential.

Cliches

Cliches have the effect of terminating thoughts. However, they are the weapon of choice for this instructor. Add some hyperbole and students actually get no information. As a result, these players couldn’t play golf. When they did, they had no real scheme. With no idea what they are doing, they would descend into a spiral of no idea what to do, bad results, lower confidence, and running back to the lesson tee from more cliches.

The fact is that poor instruction is about conditioning players to become reliant members of your cult. To take away autonomy. To use practice as a form of control. To sell more golf lessons not by making people better but through the guise that without the teacher, the student can never reach their full potential. All under the umbrella of being “certified” (in a 2-day course!) and a melee of cliches.

This of course is not just happening at my muni but is a systemic problem around the country and around the world, the consequences of which are giving people a great reason to stop playing golf. But hey, at least it’s selling a lot of golf balls…

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

Published

2 weeks ago

Apr 22, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

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