News
Saturday on Tour: 5 things we learned
The Korn Ferry Tour completed its second post-quarantine event on Saturday, rather than Sunday. No reason was given, other than, perhaps, the high holy day of fatherly adulation. The PGA Tour has no such consideration for pater familius, it appears. Its tournament will conclude on Sunday.
As such, we have learned five things about winning and not winning, and another five things about positioning. Live from St. Augustine and Hilton Head Island, it’s 5 things we learned.
The King and The Bear Classic
Top billing must be given to the concluded contest, ergo Korn Ferry before PGA Tour. This one ended traumatically, but let’s not give it away.
5. As if written by Wodehouse
If you haven’t read P.G. Wodehouse on golf, you must. If you have, you understand that the unkind end to Vince India’s week might have been written by the master himself. The golfer who could do no wrong through the end of 54 holes, could suddenly do no right over the final 18. There was no calamitous flub, no gargantuan spasm. The shots simply ebbed away with the wind. Four bogies, 14 pars. That’s it. How to explain? No manner. The birdie well simply dried up. The pitcher of eagles was emptied on Saturday. The game simply left him, and he tumbled from a four-shot advantage to a tie for sixth position, five behind the winner.
4. Zalatoris edges closer
Will Zalatoris moved closer to a first, important professional triumph. He did so by shooting his highest round of the week. Thing was, his high round was a 68, and a 68 rarely inflicts collateral damage. The Calixan (Californian Texan) had a foozle at the 10th, where he made bogie. He offset that mistake with five birdies, and tied for 3rd, a slim 3 shots back of the champion. Was -26 within reach? Yes. With the exception of a very few in golf’s competitive history, winners have lost far more often than they have won. It is these almosts and if onlys that forge the inner strength. Our money’s on the Demon Deacon over the course of the summer’s schedule.
3. Joseph Bramlett rises
It’s tempting to write about Joseph Bramlett’s performance these last two weeks, in the context of something bigger, owing to his ethnicity. If something is there, it is Joseph Bramlett’s place and right to inform the golf world, and not for the golf world to project and extrapolate. Instead, we consider his 128 over the final 36 holes. The Stanford alumnus was cruising along through 71 holes, probably happy to be at minus-20, inside the top 15. And then, lightning struck. With two flicks at the orb, Bramlett had holed for an albatross, a double eagle at the last. The rarest of birds vaulted him into a tie for 3rd with Zalatoris. Not even Wodehouse wrote so fine an ending.
2. Lower goes higher
That low-hanging fruit was irresistible. Justin Lower closed with birdies at four of his final five holes, to make Chris Kirk sweat. By going lower, Lower moved all the way to solo second, one shot behind the champion. Nerves were unsteady all around the course on day four, and Lower was no exception. He followed an eagle three at the fifth with a bogey six at the seventh. As mentioned, his inward half was settled and stellar. Like Zalatoris, he’ll be one to watch in the coming weeks.
1. Captain Kirk in command
As mentioned yesterday, Chris Kirk has been there and done that. For Vince India and the rest of the field, that was the worst combination in the top 15. True to form, Kirk played like a breed apart. He was four under par through nine holes, before an inexplicable double at the 10th gave the field a sliver of hope. Alas, it was to be dashed, as the Georgia Bulldog steadied and played his final eight holes in minus three. It was just enough to win, and for a man trying to return to the high echelon of the PGA Tour, the proper medicine.
RBC Heritage
I can’t tell you how many times I looked at the Hilton Head leaderboard and thought, “We’ll have a playoff, for sure.” I would then recall that it was only day three for the major leagues, and that today’s heroics would mean next to nothing on Sunday.
5. Goodbye, Ernie and Bryson
At Sea Pines, scores in the 70s simply will not due. Ernie Els teased us with matching 67s, then ballooned to a 72 on Saturday. Farewell, Big Easy. DeChambeau seemingly defied the odds of a bomber winning at the Heritage, then tossed a beanbag of a 70 on day three. The Big Bang Theory was reduced to a fine powder explosion. Adios.
4. Hello, Carlos, Joaquin, Daniel, Joel, and Chris
There are simply no odds for a quintet to shoot 63 on the same day and move within two shots of the lead. Yet, here we are, with Carlos Ortiz, Joaquin Niemann, Daniel Berger, Joel Dahmen, and Chris Stroud as star witnesses. Each found a method to slice and dice the Sea Pines Plantation’s signature course to the tune of eight under par. Carlos, Daniel, and Joel currently sit at 14 under, while Joaquin and Chris are one shot further back. Odds suggest that at least one of them will replicate form and be in the mix tomorrow, so I’ll go out on a limb and choose the guy whose first name ends in a consonant.
3. 15 golfers within two shots?
Yep. Turns out there are six more golfers at 13 under along with four golfers at 15 under, the ladder’s bustling top rung. Sergio Garcia, first-round leader Ian Poulter, and my prediction (Matthew Fitzpatrick) found their way into contention. Sunday will demand perfection from any of them, in order to win. Bogeys will derail each of their locomotives, so dig deep, lads.
2. A quartet at the top
Tyrrell Hatton, Abraham Ancer, and Ryan Palmer joined 36-hole leader Webb Simpson atop the heap. Will Sunday bring fireworks? No doubt. Will one of these gents repeat his Saturday heroics? I’m going to say no. The winner will come from behind (see footnote on Matthew Fitzpatrick).
1. Prediction hour
Most likely to win: Matthew Fitzpatrick. I’m sticking with him.
Most likely to fade away: Webb Simpson. 26 putts on Saturday, but most were to save par. The long game is off, and the putter won’t save him forever.
Most likely to be mistaken for Gael Garcia Bernal: Abraham Ancer. Honestly, they’re like twins!
Most likely to grind his teeth to dust while smiling: Tyrrell Hatton. Someone hurt him, but who?
Most likely to do something bizarre: Sergio Garcia. It has simply been too long.
- LIKE14
- LEGIT2
- WOW2
- LOL0
- IDHT0
- FLOP0
- OB1
- SHANK3
News
Morning 9: Tiger confirms playing schedule | Player: This caused Tiger’s downfall
|
- LIKE1
- LEGIT0
- WOW0
- LOL1
- IDHT1
- FLOP0
- OB0
- SHANK1
Tour Photo Galleries
Photos from the 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
GolfWRX is on site this week in McKinney, Texas, at the 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson (FKA the AT&T Byron Nelson).
Last year at TPC Craig Ranch, Jason Day ended a five-year winless streak. J-Day is in the field again, as are Jordan Spieth, Tom Kim, and Will Zalatoris.
We have our usual assortment of general galleries, WITBs, and pullout albums for your perusal. As always, we’ll continue to add links to additional albums as they make their way to us from the Lone Star State.
Check out links to all our photos below.
General Albums
- 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson – Monday #1
- 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson – Monday #2
- 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson – Tuesday #1
- 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson – Tuesday #2
- 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson – Tuesday #3
WITB Albums
- Pierceson Coody – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Kris Kim – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- David Nyfjall – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Adrien Dumont de Chassart – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Jarred Jetter – North Texas PGA Section Champ – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Richy Werenski – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Wesley Bryan – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Parker Coody – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Peter Kuest – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Blaine Hale, Jr. – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Kelly Kraft – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Rico Hoey – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
Pullout Albums
- Adam Scott’s 2 new custom L.A.B. Golf putters – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Scotty Cameron putters – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Ben Griffin playing Maxfli golf ball
See what GolfWRXers are saying in the forums.
- LIKE10
- LEGIT0
- WOW0
- LOL0
- IDHT0
- FLOP0
- OB0
- SHANK1
News
Vincenzi’s 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson betting preview: International talent to shine
As anticipation mounts for the 2024 PGA Championship at Valhalla in a few weeks, the PGA Tour makes a pit stop in McKinney, Texas to play The CJ CUP Byron Nelson.
Last year was the third time TPC Craig Ranch hosted the Byron Nelson. Prior to 2021, the event was held at Trinity Forest Golf Club in Dallas.
TPC Craig Ranch is a 7,414-yard par-71 that features Bentgrass greens. The event historically plays relatively easy, and that has remained the case in the three editions at TPC Craig Ranch.
The course structure may provide some additional intrigue with the par-3 17th featuring a stadium setup called “Ranch 17” which is reminiscent of the 16th hole at TPC Scottsdale. The course also has both long and difficult par-4s mixed with drivable par-4s, which should create some exciting moments.
There are 156 golfers in the field this week, and many stars will be taking the week off to prepare for 2023’s second major championship in a few weeks and a “signature event” at Quail Hollow next week. Notable players in the field include Jordan Spieth, Jason Day, Sungjae Im, Stephan Jaeger, Tom Kim, Si Woo Kim, Min Woo Lee, Alex Noren, Adam Scott and Will Zalatoris.
Past Winners of the AT&T Byron Nelson
- 2023: Jason Day (-23 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2022: K.H. Lee (-26 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2021: K.H. Lee (-25 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2019: Sung Kang (-23)
- 2018: Aaron Wise (-23)
- 2017: Billy Horschel (-12)
- 2016: Sergio Garcia (-15)
- 2015: Steven Bowditch (-18)
Key Stats at TPC Craig Ranch
Let’s take a look at five key metrics for TPC Craig Ranch to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Approach remains the best measure of current form.
Hot iron play will be at a premium this week. Last year, Jason Day gained 6.4 strokes on approach, which was fourth in the field. In 2022, K.H. Lee was ninth in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining 5.2 strokes. In his 2021 victory, he was second in the field and gained 8.3 strokes on the field in the category.
Strokes Gaines: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds
- Tom Hoge (+1.12)
- Keith Mitchell (+1.02)
- Henrik Norlander (+0.99)
- Ryan Moore (+0.98)
- Ben Martin (0.80)
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Fairways are wide at TPC Craig Ranch.
Distance will certainly be helpful, and there aren’t too many difficult holes on the course. Golfers who put themselves in position off of the tee this week should have a sizable advantage.
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Over Past 24 Rounds
- Peter Kuest (+0.93)
- Kevin Daugherty (+0.91)
- Alejandro Tosti (+0.83)
- Keith Mitchell (+0.82)
- Kevin Tway (+0.74)
Birdie or Better %
There aren’t many hazards on the course, and all of the par-5s should be reachable in two for the majority of the players in the field. I am anticipating a birdie fest, and this statistic should be helpful in finding the birdie-makers.
Birdie or Better % Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Wesley Bryan (31%)
- Kelly Kraft (26.2%)
- Peter Kuest (25.9%)
- Matti Schmid (25.7%
- Jimmy Stanger (25.2%)
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
Many golfers on TOUR have some major putting surface variance in their statistics and prefer Bentgrass to other surfaces.
Bentgrass is common in Texas, and we often see golfers who play well in Texas continue to do so, finding a great feel around the greens.
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass) Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Maverick McNealy (+0.92)
- Aaron Baddeley (+0.87)
- Callum Tarren (+0.86)
- Harry Hall (+0.81)
- Nick Hardy (+0.69)
Course History
This statistic will tell us which players have performed the best at TPC Craig Ranch over the past three seasons.
Course History Over Past 12 Rounds:
- Jordan Spieth (+2.69)
- K.H. Lee (+2.59)
- Seamus Power (+1.84)
- Ryan Palmer (+1.76)
- Adam Scott (+1.72)
CJ CUP Byron Nelson Model Rankings
Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: OTT (24%), Birdie or Better % (18%), Course History (17%) and SG: Putting Bentgrass (16%).
- Alex Noren
- Adam Scott
- Keith Mitchell
- Si Woo Kim
- Stephen Jaeger
- Jordan Spieth
- Jhonnatan Vegas
- Nate Lashley
- Brice Garnett
- Tom Hoge
2024 CJ CUP Byron Nelson Picks
Byeong Hun An +3000 (DraftKings)
Byeong Hun put together an excellent performance at The Masters, finishing T16, which ties his best ever finish at a major championship (also T16 at 2019 U.S. Open). The South Korean gained 9.16 strokes from tee to green, which ranked 2nd in the field behind only the champion, Scottie Scheffler.
An’s next start at Harbour Town didn’t go as well (67th), but he still had a fantastic ball striking week. The 32-year-old bled strokes both around and on the greens, which was his eventual undoing. In his past three starts, An has gained significant strokes on the field both off the tee and on approach.
Benny had a strong start at last year’s Byron Nelson, finishing in a tie for 14th. With limited challenges on the course, he shouldn’t have to do much scrambling. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 17th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 17th in the field in birdie or better percentage. The putter is up and down per usual, but his ceiling putting weeks with his LAB Golf putter in 2024 are higher than they’ve been in past seasons.
An is starting to become my “white whale” of the PGA Tour, but I believe in his talent and TPC Craig Ranch is a course that should suit his excellent tee to green play.
Mackenzie Hughes +5500 (FanDuel)
Mackenzie Hughes is quietly putting together a very good season. He finished in a tie for 3rd at the Valspar Championship and followed that up with a T14 at the Texas Children’s Houston Open.
In his past 36 rounds in Texas, the Canadian ranks 5th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total. Last year, he finished in a tie for 14th at this event and gained strokes putting and off the tee. Mackenzie played well that week despite being in extremely poor form. He missed two cuts in a row prior to the event, and four consecutive cuts immediately after. His irons were off that week, but in 2024, we’ve seen an improvement in Hughes’ approach game. He now comes to the event playing some steady golf. He’s gained strokes on approach in four of his past five events and is hitting the ball very well from tee to green.
Hughes has two victories on the PGA Tour, both coming in relatively low-scoring affairs (-17 in each). He will need to go a bit deeper to win the CJ Cup Byron Nelson but has the type of putter that can keep pace in a birdie barrage.
Seamus Power +7000 (FanDuel)
After struggling over the past few seasons with injuries, Seamus Power seems as if he is rounding back into the form that made him a really consistent player on the PGA Tour.
Power finished T12 in his most recent start at the RBC Heritage, which is encouraging considering it was a “signature event” with a very strong field. For the week, the Irishman gained 4.4 strokes on approach and 2.8 strokes putting, which is the combination he’s used in the past to contend on Tour.
In his three trips to TPC Craig Ranch, Power is yet to finish outside of the top-20, with his best finish being a T9 in 2019. He ranks 4th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course. The 37-year-old thrives on easy tracks and has won in 2021 (Barbasol Championship) and 2022 (Butterfield Bermuda) on easier layouts with weaker fields.
Power has the game to go extremely low and I believe he can get back in the winner’s circle for the third time in four years.
Chan Kim +10000 (FanDuel)
Chan Kim has been striking the ball beautifully this season and is a proven winner with two wins on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2023 as well as eight career Japan Tour wins.
At last week’s Zurich Classic, Kim and his partner Doug Ghim finished in a tie for 28th. Prior to that, the South Korean T14 at the Valero Texas Open and T6 at the Corales Puntacana Championship. His success this season in Texas as well as he propensity to play his best golf on the PGA Tour’s easier courses make him and ideal fit for TPC Craig Ranch.
2024 has given plenty of longshot winners on the PGA Tour, and with a birdie fest like this, I believe there’s a strong chance we get another this week in McKinney, Texas.
Alejandro Tosti +10000 (FanDuel)
Alejandro Tosti is one of the most polarizing players on the PGA Tour thus far in the 2024 season. His antics can rub many the wrong way, but he’s shown on a few occasions that he has what it takes to compete in Tour events.
This season, Tosti has been elite off the tee. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 2nd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. The Argentine hits it long and straight, which works at any course on earth. He got a taste of contention a few starts ago at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, finishing in a tie for 2nd place.
Tosti had a fantastic year in 2023 on the Korn Ferry Tour, where going low is a prerequisite to success. If this turns to a shootout, which it likely will, the 27-year-old has the ability to set the pace. Tosti will look to become the second Argentine to win in Texas in the past two seasons after Emiliano Grillo emerged victorious at last year’s Charles Schwab Challenge.
C.T. Pan +15000 (FanDuel)
Outside of a T3 at the Mexico Open, C.T. Pan doesn’t have strong results this season in terms of finishes. However, over his past two starts, Pan’s iron play has come alive. At The Players, he gained 6.6 strokes on approach. At the Valero Texas Open, he gained 3.7. At last week’s Zurich Classic, Pan and his partner Kevin Yu finished T28. For a player who can get extremely hot with his scoring clubs, I believe he’s playing better than the results have shown over the past month or so.
Last season, Pan finished 4th at TPC Craig Ranch and was spectacular across all the major stat categories. In his past 36 qualifying rounds, he ranks 16th in Strokes Gained: Total in Texas.
Pan has won on the PGA Tour at the RBC Heritage and is always a player that I believe has what it takes to win on a Sunday if he finds himself in contention.
- LIKE16
- LEGIT10
- WOW3
- LOL0
- IDHT0
- FLOP3
- OB0
- SHANK4
-
19th Hole2 weeks ago
Justin Thomas on the equipment choice of Scottie Scheffler that he thinks is ‘weird’
-
19th Hole2 weeks ago
‘Absolutely crazy’ – Major champ lays into Patrick Cantlay over his decision on final hole of RBC Heritage
-
19th Hole3 weeks ago
Two star names reportedly blanked Jon Rahm all week at the Masters
-
19th Hole3 weeks ago
Report: LIV Golf identifies latest star name they hope to sign to breakaway tour
-
19th Hole3 weeks ago
Neal Shipley presser ends in awkward fashion after reporter claims Tiger handed him note on 8th fairway
-
19th Hole3 weeks ago
Brandel Chamblee has ‘no doubt’ who started the McIlroy/LIV rumor and why
-
19th Hole1 week ago
LET pro gives detailed financial breakdown of first week on tour…and the net result may shock you
-
Equipment3 weeks ago
Jason Day on his recent switch into Srixon ZX5 and ZX7 Mk II irons
Ken
Jun 21, 2020 at 12:30 pm
Bryson was sweating profusely and seemed to be struggling with the heat. Perhaps not comfortable with an extra 40 lbs and affected his game.
Benny
Jun 21, 2020 at 7:08 am
Hahaha awesome