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Friday on Tour: 5 things we learned
As you learned yesterday, it’s BOGO week, aka five will get you 10. Not 10 years, but 10 things we learned. With the Korn Ferry Tour in Florida, and the PGA Tour a bit north, on Hilton Head Island, great weather has led to super-low scoring. I have a few golf chums who resist low scoring, but I leave them to their growlers of bitterness. I love birdies and eagles. This week, we have more than we can count.
It’s Friday evening, the weekend is here, KFT is 18 holes from a winner, while PGAT has two rounds to go. Let’s learn what we learned this week, five things from each tour.
RBC Heritage: 5 things we learned
5. Nick Watney has no luck
Flashback to 2010, and Nick Watney is everyone’s pick to win at least one major. He had a rough decade, with healthy servings of injury and self-doubt. Today, Watney withdrew from the RBC, due to a positive test for COVID-19. The Californian exhibited symptoms of the virus, was tested, and confirmed positive on Friday. He withdrew after posting a 71 in round one.
4. Webb Simpson has the lead
The Carolinian made A LOT of birdies on Friday. Nine of them, to be precise, and he needed all of them. When Simpson hit a green, he was money almost all of the time. He gained six strokes on the field in putting on day two, which is obscene. Thing was, he couldn’t make the same putts for par that he made for birdie. Simpson missed nine, eleven, and 14-foot putts when he missed the green. The only time his putter rescued a par, was the sixth. Simpson got up and down for par from 90 yards on that one, draining a twelve-feet putt for four.
Let’s not dwell on the negatives, however. The pride of Wake Forest made 69 feet of birdie putts on the front, then 92 more on the back. He capped his round with a 38-foot bomb for three at the home hole. In the end, as long as the birdies outweigh the bogeys by enough, Simpson will be in the mix.
3. The weather four-putted in the PM
Not Jordan Spieth this time. He did miss a two-footer for par (yikes!) but kept it together for 70. Thunderstorms arrived and reminded us that this is still the PGA Tour and that delays will always be a thing. The second round was halted, stranding golfers for 45 minutes. In the end, no harm and no foul, as castaways made quick work of their remaining holes, and the round completed on schedule. The good news is, no more rain for at least 48 hours, which should allow the tournament to finish on schedule.
2. #BigBandTheory is back
Bryson doesn’t really have the room this week to show off his flex. No matter, he showed off his guile, to the tune of 64 and 11-under par. DeChambeau is driving the ball better than Simpson, and he is hitting more greens that the fellow currently holding the top spot. What that means is, over the course of four days, the Big Bang Theory should overtake the lead. Will it play out that way? This writer says “Yes.”
1. Predictions are in, and …
Most likely to tell you exactly what he’s feeling: Bryson DeChambeau. If I had to mic one guy on tour, it would be him. Most days, I understand his thoughts.
Most likely to break through for a win: Matthew Fitzpatrick. Crystal ball sez that it’s the Englishman’s time.
Most likely to take a high-speed elevator: Jhonnatan Vegas. If there were a stat column for shots-gap from round to round, the Venezuelan would be a strong contender for the hardware. #NeverDull
The King & The Bear: 5 things we learned
5. Vince India held court
The co-leader after 36 holes posted a clinic today. Nine birdies and one eagle allowed the man from the land of Lincoln to offset a bogey and shoot an inconceivable 62 in round three. India turned for home in 29 strokes, thanks to a six-under-in-five-holes stretch. His eagle at the 5th ignited a fuse that brought a run of four birdies to close the outward half. His only hiccough came at the par-four 12th, where he missed the green and could not recover for par. Four birdies from 13 to 18 restored his confidence, and consoled him with a four-shot lead.
4. Chris Kirk kept this thing real
The PGA Tour champion is the only golfer within six shots of the leader. Kirk was three-under through nine, and quickly realized that such a pace simply wouldn’t do for the Duke. He geared up and made five birdies for 31 on the home half. His 64 brought him to 21 deep, and kept him within four shots of the front-runner. If I were India, Chris Kirk is not the fellow I’d want in my round-four grouping. His wins on the big tour bolster his confidence, and if anyone is to catch the leader, it should be Kirk.
3. Will Z won’t give up
The Calixan (Californian and Texan) by way of Wake Forest is learning the most basic of questions in professional tournament golf: What do I have to do to win out here? Rounds of 65-66-66 have him at 19-under par, tied with two others. As we know by now, that’s two back of the chaser, and six behind the leader. Zalatoris posted two eagles on Wednesday, and one each the next two days. He has 16 birdies, to boot. It’s the others, the three bogeys and the double, that relegated him to long chaser. Eliminate the double and he’s tied with Kirk. Ditch the others, and he’d be one back of the lead. Sometimes, your best isn’t good enough. Through three rounds, that might be WZ’s thinking. If he tossed a 64 on Saturday, he’ll give India something to think about.
2. Might we see a 59?
It’s doubtful, but 60 or 61 are under consideration. Only one golfer (India) has anything to lose. The rest are playing for glory, and will go as low as they possibly can. Eagles are commonplace on the par-five holes, and the two-shotters have given up an enormous amount of threes. The low round won’t come from the last grouping, but someone like Braden Thornberry or Scott Langley might get hot early and sustain momentum. If India gets to 30-under par, the tournament is his. If not, the early, low round might cart the trophy off.
1. Predictions on the menu
Most likely to jump into the top ten: Davis Riley. He rooms with Zalatoris, and need to close the gap with his roomie. I’m guessing 65 for the Alabama golfer.
Most likely to fall out of the top ten: Brett Coletta. The first-round leader has worsened each round, from 63 to 66, to 70. His best is behind him, at least for this week.
Most likely to shoot that 61: I’ve mentioned Langley and Thornberry already, so let’s add a third name: long-hitting Canadian, Taylor Pendrith.
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Vincenzi’s 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson betting preview: International talent to shine
As anticipation mounts for the 2024 PGA Championship at Valhalla in a few weeks, the PGA Tour makes a pit stop in McKinney, Texas to play The CJ CUP Byron Nelson.
Last year was the third time TPC Craig Ranch hosted the Byron Nelson. Prior to 2021, the event was held at Trinity Forest Golf Club in Dallas.
TPC Craig Ranch is a 7,414-yard par-71 that features Bentgrass greens. The event historically plays relatively easy, and that has remained the case in the three editions at TPC Craig Ranch.
The course structure may provide some additional intrigue with the par-3 17th featuring a stadium setup called “Ranch 17” which is reminiscent of the 16th hole at TPC Scottsdale. The course also has both long and difficult par-4s mixed with drivable par-4s, which should create some exciting moments.
There are 156 golfers in the field this week, and many stars will be taking the week off to prepare for 2023’s second major championship in a few weeks and a “signature event” at Quail Hollow next week. Notable players in the field include Jordan Spieth, Jason Day, Sungjae Im, Stephan Jaeger, Tom Kim, Si Woo Kim, Min Woo Lee, Alex Noren, Adam Scott and Will Zalatoris.
Past Winners of the AT&T Byron Nelson
- 2023: Jason Day (-23 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2022: K.H. Lee (-26 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2021: K.H. Lee (-25 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2019: Sung Kang (-23)
- 2018: Aaron Wise (-23)
- 2017: Billy Horschel (-12)
- 2016: Sergio Garcia (-15)
- 2015: Steven Bowditch (-18)
Key Stats at TPC Craig Ranch
Let’s take a look at five key metrics for TPC Craig Ranch to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Approach remains the best measure of current form.
Hot iron play will be at a premium this week. Last year, Jason Day gained 6.4 strokes on approach, which was fourth in the field. In 2022, K.H. Lee was ninth in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining 5.2 strokes. In his 2021 victory, he was second in the field and gained 8.3 strokes on the field in the category.
Strokes Gaines: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds
- Tom Hoge (+1.12)
- Keith Mitchell (+1.02)
- Henrik Norlander (+0.99)
- Ryan Moore (+0.98)
- Ben Martin (0.80)
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Fairways are wide at TPC Craig Ranch.
Distance will certainly be helpful, and there aren’t too many difficult holes on the course. Golfers who put themselves in position off of the tee this week should have a sizable advantage.
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Over Past 24 Rounds
- Peter Kuest (+0.93)
- Kevin Daugherty (+0.91)
- Alejandro Tosti (+0.83)
- Keith Mitchell (+0.82)
- Kevin Tway (+0.74)
Birdie or Better %
There aren’t many hazards on the course, and all of the par-5s should be reachable in two for the majority of the players in the field. I am anticipating a birdie fest, and this statistic should be helpful in finding the birdie-makers.
Birdie or Better % Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Wesley Bryan (31%)
- Kelly Kraft (26.2%)
- Peter Kuest (25.9%)
- Matti Schmid (25.7%
- Jimmy Stanger (25.2%)
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
Many golfers on TOUR have some major putting surface variance in their statistics and prefer Bentgrass to other surfaces.
Bentgrass is common in Texas, and we often see golfers who play well in Texas continue to do so, finding a great feel around the greens.
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass) Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Maverick McNealy (+0.92)
- Aaron Baddeley (+0.87)
- Callum Tarren (+0.86)
- Harry Hall (+0.81)
- Nick Hardy (+0.69)
Course History
This statistic will tell us which players have performed the best at TPC Craig Ranch over the past three seasons.
Course History Over Past 12 Rounds:
- Jordan Spieth (+2.69)
- K.H. Lee (+2.59)
- Seamus Power (+1.84)
- Ryan Palmer (+1.76)
- Adam Scott (+1.72)
CJ CUP Byron Nelson Model Rankings
Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: OTT (24%), Birdie or Better % (18%), Course History (17%) and SG: Putting Bentgrass (16%).
- Alex Noren
- Adam Scott
- Keith Mitchell
- Si Woo Kim
- Stephen Jaeger
- Jordan Spieth
- Jhonnatan Vegas
- Nate Lashley
- Brice Garnett
- Tom Hoge
2024 CJ CUP Byron Nelson Picks
Byeong Hun An +3000 (DraftKings)
Byeong Hun put together an excellent performance at The Masters, finishing T16, which ties his best ever finish at a major championship (also T16 at 2019 U.S. Open). The South Korean gained 9.16 strokes from tee to green, which ranked 2nd in the field behind only the champion, Scottie Scheffler.
An’s next start at Harbour Town didn’t go as well (67th), but he still had a fantastic ball striking week. The 32-year-old bled strokes both around and on the greens, which was his eventual undoing. In his past three starts, An has gained significant strokes on the field both off the tee and on approach.
Benny had a strong start at last year’s Byron Nelson, finishing in a tie for 14th. With limited challenges on the course, he shouldn’t have to do much scrambling. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 17th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 17th in the field in birdie or better percentage. The putter is up and down per usual, but his ceiling putting weeks with his LAB Golf putter in 2024 are higher than they’ve been in past seasons.
An is starting to become my “white whale” of the PGA Tour, but I believe in his talent and TPC Craig Ranch is a course that should suit his excellent tee to green play.
Mackenzie Hughes +5500 (FanDuel)
Mackenzie Hughes is quietly putting together a very good season. He finished in a tie for 3rd at the Valspar Championship and followed that up with a T14 at the Texas Children’s Houston Open.
In his past 36 rounds in Texas, the Canadian ranks 5th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total. Last year, he finished in a tie for 14th at this event and gained strokes putting and off the tee. Mackenzie played well that week despite being in extremely poor form. He missed two cuts in a row prior to the event, and four consecutive cuts immediately after. His irons were off that week, but in 2024, we’ve seen an improvement in Hughes’ approach game. He now comes to the event playing some steady golf. He’s gained strokes on approach in four of his past five events and is hitting the ball very well from tee to green.
Hughes has two victories on the PGA Tour, both coming in relatively low-scoring affairs (-17 in each). He will need to go a bit deeper to win the CJ Cup Byron Nelson but has the type of putter that can keep pace in a birdie barrage.
Seamus Power +7000 (FanDuel)
After struggling over the past few seasons with injuries, Seamus Power seems as if he is rounding back into the form that made him a really consistent player on the PGA Tour.
Power finished T12 in his most recent start at the RBC Heritage, which is encouraging considering it was a “signature event” with a very strong field. For the week, the Irishman gained 4.4 strokes on approach and 2.8 strokes putting, which is the combination he’s used in the past to contend on Tour.
In his three trips to TPC Craig Ranch, Power is yet to finish outside of the top-20, with his best finish being a T9 in 2019. He ranks 4th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course. The 37-year-old thrives on easy tracks and has won in 2021 (Barbasol Championship) and 2022 (Butterfield Bermuda) on easier layouts with weaker fields.
Power has the game to go extremely low and I believe he can get back in the winner’s circle for the third time in four years.
Chan Kim +10000 (FanDuel)
Chan Kim has been striking the ball beautifully this season and is a proven winner with two wins on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2023 as well as eight career Japan Tour wins.
At last week’s Zurich Classic, Kim and his partner Doug Ghim finished in a tie for 28th. Prior to that, the South Korean T14 at the Valero Texas Open and T6 at the Corales Puntacana Championship. His success this season in Texas as well as he propensity to play his best golf on the PGA Tour’s easier courses make him and ideal fit for TPC Craig Ranch.
2024 has given plenty of longshot winners on the PGA Tour, and with a birdie fest like this, I believe there’s a strong chance we get another this week in McKinney, Texas.
Alejandro Tosti +10000 (FanDuel)
Alejandro Tosti is one of the most polarizing players on the PGA Tour thus far in the 2024 season. His antics can rub many the wrong way, but he’s shown on a few occasions that he has what it takes to compete in Tour events.
This season, Tosti has been elite off the tee. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 2nd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. The Argentine hits it long and straight, which works at any course on earth. He got a taste of contention a few starts ago at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, finishing in a tie for 2nd place.
Tosti had a fantastic year in 2023 on the Korn Ferry Tour, where going low is a prerequisite to success. If this turns to a shootout, which it likely will, the 27-year-old has the ability to set the pace. Tosti will look to become the second Argentine to win in Texas in the past two seasons after Emiliano Grillo emerged victorious at last year’s Charles Schwab Challenge.
C.T. Pan +15000 (FanDuel)
Outside of a T3 at the Mexico Open, C.T. Pan doesn’t have strong results this season in terms of finishes. However, over his past two starts, Pan’s iron play has come alive. At The Players, he gained 6.6 strokes on approach. At the Valero Texas Open, he gained 3.7. At last week’s Zurich Classic, Pan and his partner Kevin Yu finished T28. For a player who can get extremely hot with his scoring clubs, I believe he’s playing better than the results have shown over the past month or so.
Last season, Pan finished 4th at TPC Craig Ranch and was spectacular across all the major stat categories. In his past 36 qualifying rounds, he ranks 16th in Strokes Gained: Total in Texas.
Pan has won on the PGA Tour at the RBC Heritage and is always a player that I believe has what it takes to win on a Sunday if he finds himself in contention.
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Morning 9: McIlroy, Lowry win Zurich | Green repeats on LPGA | Steele victorious down under
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Morning 9: 58 on the Korn Ferry Tour | Rory on possible return to policy board
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Gunter Eisenberg
Jun 21, 2020 at 11:30 am
I beg PGA tour players not to contract Covid-19. Please wash your hands frequently, maintain social distancing, and above all, not consume bat fried rice or soup.
AOC
Jun 20, 2020 at 1:18 pm
I can’t believe they are still playing! Defind the PGA tour! Defund the PGA tour!