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Thursday on Tour: 5 things we learned
The magic of a returned PGA Tour moved to coastal South Carolina, with the playing of the first round of the RBC Heritage. A state and a half away, day two of the King and Bear Classic witnessed the continued, stellar play of a field of almost-there touring professionals.
With no fan attendance on either tour, the full focus continues to be on the players and their movement through a COVID-19 world. Testing continues, caution is evident across each venue, and the golf reaches new levels of excellence each week.
We’ve never written 5 Things We’ve Learned for 2 simultaneous tournaments, but if ever a time deserved a debut, this is it. Thank you for checking in to today’s installment of 5 Things We Learned on day 1 at the Heritage, and day 2 of the King and Bear.
RBC Heritage
5. Twitter presences tie for 1st-round lead
Whether it’s an up-close-and-groddy video of a COVID-19 nasal swab, or an interesting handle, Twitter comes through as a parallel universe for the first-round leaders at Harbor Town. Ian Poulter had seven birdies on Thursday, on a course that rewards his accurate play. The Ryder Cup hero was at home along the low-country fairways on Hilton Head Island, as he took a PGA Tour lead for the first time in 2020. Poulter’s last tour victory came in 2018, at Houston, on a course as different from this one as, say, Poulter is to Mark Hubbard. #HomelessHubbs was fire himself on Thursday, pairing a course of five birdies with an eagle appetizer, to join #Poults at the top. Hubbard last won in February 2019, at the Korn Ferry Tour’s LECOM Suncoast Classic. Hubbard came 2nd to Lanto Griffin at last fall’s Houston Open, and had notched 28 rounds in the 60s before the PGA Tour’s quarantine hiatus.
4. The two faces of Webb Simpson
The Demon Deacon stood at -6 through ten holes this afternoon. 8 pars later, he finished at the same number. Is the back nine more challenging than the front at Harbor Town? Depends on whom you ask. For Simpson, there was a golden opportunity to go super-deep on day one, and establish himself as solo leader. Simpson hit seven of eight greens in regulation, saving par at the 17th from three feet. The other seven greens saw him miss birdie opportunities from 10 to 30 feet. No better case of putter-goes-cold than Simpson’s today. No one complains of 65 for 2nd place, 2 shots behind the leaders, but Simpson can be forgiven for wanting a bit more out of a round that saw him essentially hit 16 of 18 greens.
3. Those young guys, again
Viktor Hovland tasted victory at the Puerto Rico Open in late February. He’s back for seconds, standing at 65 after round one. Sebastián Muñoz won last fall in Mississippi, and matched Hovland’s 65 on Thursday. It’s always difficult to delineate between young guys and kinda young guys and established young guys. Both Vik and Seb can add to their cachet by notching tour win number two this week, on a course not reserved for bombers. Win here, and you demonstrate patience, accuracy, and strategy.
2. Spieth Files
That old saw about watching car races for the crashes, comes to mind with Jordan Spieth. Half a decade ago, we thought that he might be the a guy to challenge the all-time greats in the majors. Spieth found a way to win three of them, then lost that way. Recently, when he finds himself in contention, a lack of confidence or focus (or perhaps, both) leads to a flameout. Last week, it was a four-putt green at Colonial. No one wants to see it happen to the young Texan, yet it lurks. On Thursday, Spieth had triple bogey on the day’s third hole, number twelve. It’s hard to determine which shot was the worst of the seven: the lost drive or the twitched 2nd putt. The 4-time major winner clawed back, with birdie at the next hole, then a front nine for the ages. 6 consecutive birdies came his way, from 2 through 7, followed by another at the 9th for 29 and 66. Is he a thrill ride? Yes. A spin-out? Sometimes. For all that, he is Jordan Spieth.
1. Predictions, please
Most likely to do just about anything: Do you have to ask?
Most likely to keep the ugly jacket in state: Matthew NeSmith. Played college golf at USC (the eastern one) but never won like we thought he might. Perhaps as a pro?
Most likely to say, Hello, USA: Matthew Fitzpatrick. It has been 7 years since his US Amateur triumph at The Country Club. Fitz has 5 wins on the Euro Tour, but none since 2018. Runner-up to Erik van Rooyen, tied with Fitz at 65.
The King and the Bear Classic
5. Let’s do it again
Vince India and Brett Coletta matched 63s on Wednesday. That was fun, so they matched 66s on Thursday, and stood for the halfway lead at 129. India bogeyed his final hole (#9), while Coletta made birdie at his (#18) and, in this case, the twains did meet. On Friday, India will play the course in proper order for the first time. Will this impact his performance? It might. Coletta will attempt to shake off Thursday’s lackluster front nine (2 birds and a bogey) and do some damage there in round three. Come to think of it, they might just match cards again in round three, and leave us in the dark until round 4.
4. Tour Guy Check In
Chris Kirk is more associated with the big tour, so his presence on the KFT begs the question, why isn’t he at Harbor Town? No matter, Kirk won four times on tour, from 2011 to 2015, but since then, it has been a mixed bag. The Georgian left the course bogey-free for the 2nd consecutive day. That sort of control might be the difference-maker come Saturday (sounds weird to write that, I know) and might be the ticket back to full-time PGA Tour status.
3. Z & D
Will Zalatoris made a name for himself at Wake Forest, before leaving the college ranks early. Davis Riley played four years at Alabama, then dipped his toes in the professional game. Zalatoris sits 2 behind the leaders, while Riley is a one shot farther back. They fit the profile of young guy wants to win now contestant, so you could do worse than back either one as we pass the halfway point.
2.Don’t you …
…forget about me. Mickey DeMorat and Justin Lower might wonder why we haven’t written about them yet. When you’re not a household name, you need to give us 36 holes before we make some noise. Or is it, you need to make some noise? No matter. DeMorat had 64 today, the 2nd-low score for round the 2nd. He led the Great Abaco after 36 holes this year, but found trouble on the weekend and posted a t47. Here’s to a better response this week. Lower tied for 11th at Great Exuma, and had a top-25 finish in the tour’s return last week. He matched yesterday’s 65, and who doesn’t love consistency? Four of those will win him the title, without doubt.
1. Prediction Time
Guys who might catch fire: Dawson Armstrong and Wes Roach. Both had 63 on Thursday, and if one or both can replicate on Friday, watch out!
Most likely to trend low: Ben Martin. Went from 68 to 64, and used to bet that guy, the one for whom much was predicted. Time to reclaim the skillset of the mid 2010s.
Most likely to prove me wrong: Taylor Pendrith. Still making bushels of birdies, but 2 bogeys and a double are hard to counter. I’m not selling just yet, but I’m close.
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News
Vincenzi’s 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson betting preview: International talent to shine
As anticipation mounts for the 2024 PGA Championship at Valhalla in a few weeks, the PGA Tour makes a pit stop in McKinney, Texas to play The CJ CUP Byron Nelson.
Last year was the third time TPC Craig Ranch hosted the Byron Nelson. Prior to 2021, the event was held at Trinity Forest Golf Club in Dallas.
TPC Craig Ranch is a 7,414-yard par-71 that features Bentgrass greens. The event historically plays relatively easy, and that has remained the case in the three editions at TPC Craig Ranch.
The course structure may provide some additional intrigue with the par-3 17th featuring a stadium setup called “Ranch 17” which is reminiscent of the 16th hole at TPC Scottsdale. The course also has both long and difficult par-4s mixed with drivable par-4s, which should create some exciting moments.
There are 156 golfers in the field this week, and many stars will be taking the week off to prepare for 2023’s second major championship in a few weeks and a “signature event” at Quail Hollow next week. Notable players in the field include Jordan Spieth, Jason Day, Sungjae Im, Stephan Jaeger, Tom Kim, Si Woo Kim, Min Woo Lee, Alex Noren, Adam Scott and Will Zalatoris.
Past Winners of the AT&T Byron Nelson
- 2023: Jason Day (-23 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2022: K.H. Lee (-26 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2021: K.H. Lee (-25 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2019: Sung Kang (-23)
- 2018: Aaron Wise (-23)
- 2017: Billy Horschel (-12)
- 2016: Sergio Garcia (-15)
- 2015: Steven Bowditch (-18)
Key Stats at TPC Craig Ranch
Let’s take a look at five key metrics for TPC Craig Ranch to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Approach remains the best measure of current form.
Hot iron play will be at a premium this week. Last year, Jason Day gained 6.4 strokes on approach, which was fourth in the field. In 2022, K.H. Lee was ninth in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining 5.2 strokes. In his 2021 victory, he was second in the field and gained 8.3 strokes on the field in the category.
Strokes Gaines: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds
- Tom Hoge (+1.12)
- Keith Mitchell (+1.02)
- Henrik Norlander (+0.99)
- Ryan Moore (+0.98)
- Ben Martin (0.80)
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Fairways are wide at TPC Craig Ranch.
Distance will certainly be helpful, and there aren’t too many difficult holes on the course. Golfers who put themselves in position off of the tee this week should have a sizable advantage.
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Over Past 24 Rounds
- Peter Kuest (+0.93)
- Kevin Daugherty (+0.91)
- Alejandro Tosti (+0.83)
- Keith Mitchell (+0.82)
- Kevin Tway (+0.74)
Birdie or Better %
There aren’t many hazards on the course, and all of the par-5s should be reachable in two for the majority of the players in the field. I am anticipating a birdie fest, and this statistic should be helpful in finding the birdie-makers.
Birdie or Better % Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Wesley Bryan (31%)
- Kelly Kraft (26.2%)
- Peter Kuest (25.9%)
- Matti Schmid (25.7%
- Jimmy Stanger (25.2%)
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
Many golfers on TOUR have some major putting surface variance in their statistics and prefer Bentgrass to other surfaces.
Bentgrass is common in Texas, and we often see golfers who play well in Texas continue to do so, finding a great feel around the greens.
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass) Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Maverick McNealy (+0.92)
- Aaron Baddeley (+0.87)
- Callum Tarren (+0.86)
- Harry Hall (+0.81)
- Nick Hardy (+0.69)
Course History
This statistic will tell us which players have performed the best at TPC Craig Ranch over the past three seasons.
Course History Over Past 12 Rounds:
- Jordan Spieth (+2.69)
- K.H. Lee (+2.59)
- Seamus Power (+1.84)
- Ryan Palmer (+1.76)
- Adam Scott (+1.72)
CJ CUP Byron Nelson Model Rankings
Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: OTT (24%), Birdie or Better % (18%), Course History (17%) and SG: Putting Bentgrass (16%).
- Alex Noren
- Adam Scott
- Keith Mitchell
- Si Woo Kim
- Stephen Jaeger
- Jordan Spieth
- Jhonnatan Vegas
- Nate Lashley
- Brice Garnett
- Tom Hoge
2024 CJ CUP Byron Nelson Picks
Byeong Hun An +3000 (DraftKings)
Byeong Hun put together an excellent performance at The Masters, finishing T16, which ties his best ever finish at a major championship (also T16 at 2019 U.S. Open). The South Korean gained 9.16 strokes from tee to green, which ranked 2nd in the field behind only the champion, Scottie Scheffler.
An’s next start at Harbour Town didn’t go as well (67th), but he still had a fantastic ball striking week. The 32-year-old bled strokes both around and on the greens, which was his eventual undoing. In his past three starts, An has gained significant strokes on the field both off the tee and on approach.
Benny had a strong start at last year’s Byron Nelson, finishing in a tie for 14th. With limited challenges on the course, he shouldn’t have to do much scrambling. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 17th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 17th in the field in birdie or better percentage. The putter is up and down per usual, but his ceiling putting weeks with his LAB Golf putter in 2024 are higher than they’ve been in past seasons.
An is starting to become my “white whale” of the PGA Tour, but I believe in his talent and TPC Craig Ranch is a course that should suit his excellent tee to green play.
Mackenzie Hughes +5500 (FanDuel)
Mackenzie Hughes is quietly putting together a very good season. He finished in a tie for 3rd at the Valspar Championship and followed that up with a T14 at the Texas Children’s Houston Open.
In his past 36 rounds in Texas, the Canadian ranks 5th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total. Last year, he finished in a tie for 14th at this event and gained strokes putting and off the tee. Mackenzie played well that week despite being in extremely poor form. He missed two cuts in a row prior to the event, and four consecutive cuts immediately after. His irons were off that week, but in 2024, we’ve seen an improvement in Hughes’ approach game. He now comes to the event playing some steady golf. He’s gained strokes on approach in four of his past five events and is hitting the ball very well from tee to green.
Hughes has two victories on the PGA Tour, both coming in relatively low-scoring affairs (-17 in each). He will need to go a bit deeper to win the CJ Cup Byron Nelson but has the type of putter that can keep pace in a birdie barrage.
Seamus Power +7000 (FanDuel)
After struggling over the past few seasons with injuries, Seamus Power seems as if he is rounding back into the form that made him a really consistent player on the PGA Tour.
Power finished T12 in his most recent start at the RBC Heritage, which is encouraging considering it was a “signature event” with a very strong field. For the week, the Irishman gained 4.4 strokes on approach and 2.8 strokes putting, which is the combination he’s used in the past to contend on Tour.
In his three trips to TPC Craig Ranch, Power is yet to finish outside of the top-20, with his best finish being a T9 in 2019. He ranks 4th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course. The 37-year-old thrives on easy tracks and has won in 2021 (Barbasol Championship) and 2022 (Butterfield Bermuda) on easier layouts with weaker fields.
Power has the game to go extremely low and I believe he can get back in the winner’s circle for the third time in four years.
Chan Kim +10000 (FanDuel)
Chan Kim has been striking the ball beautifully this season and is a proven winner with two wins on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2023 as well as eight career Japan Tour wins.
At last week’s Zurich Classic, Kim and his partner Doug Ghim finished in a tie for 28th. Prior to that, the South Korean T14 at the Valero Texas Open and T6 at the Corales Puntacana Championship. His success this season in Texas as well as he propensity to play his best golf on the PGA Tour’s easier courses make him and ideal fit for TPC Craig Ranch.
2024 has given plenty of longshot winners on the PGA Tour, and with a birdie fest like this, I believe there’s a strong chance we get another this week in McKinney, Texas.
Alejandro Tosti +10000 (FanDuel)
Alejandro Tosti is one of the most polarizing players on the PGA Tour thus far in the 2024 season. His antics can rub many the wrong way, but he’s shown on a few occasions that he has what it takes to compete in Tour events.
This season, Tosti has been elite off the tee. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 2nd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. The Argentine hits it long and straight, which works at any course on earth. He got a taste of contention a few starts ago at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, finishing in a tie for 2nd place.
Tosti had a fantastic year in 2023 on the Korn Ferry Tour, where going low is a prerequisite to success. If this turns to a shootout, which it likely will, the 27-year-old has the ability to set the pace. Tosti will look to become the second Argentine to win in Texas in the past two seasons after Emiliano Grillo emerged victorious at last year’s Charles Schwab Challenge.
C.T. Pan +15000 (FanDuel)
Outside of a T3 at the Mexico Open, C.T. Pan doesn’t have strong results this season in terms of finishes. However, over his past two starts, Pan’s iron play has come alive. At The Players, he gained 6.6 strokes on approach. At the Valero Texas Open, he gained 3.7. At last week’s Zurich Classic, Pan and his partner Kevin Yu finished T28. For a player who can get extremely hot with his scoring clubs, I believe he’s playing better than the results have shown over the past month or so.
Last season, Pan finished 4th at TPC Craig Ranch and was spectacular across all the major stat categories. In his past 36 qualifying rounds, he ranks 16th in Strokes Gained: Total in Texas.
Pan has won on the PGA Tour at the RBC Heritage and is always a player that I believe has what it takes to win on a Sunday if he finds himself in contention.
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Nick
Jun 18, 2020 at 7:40 pm
I’m pretty Spieth has only won 3 majors.