Opinion & Analysis
Clark: A teacher’s take on Brandel Chamblee’s comments
Because I’m writing to a knowledgeable audience who follows the game closely, I’m sure the current Brandel Chamblee interview and ensuing controversy needs no introduction, so let’s get right to it.
Brandel Chamblee, a former PGA Tour player, now plays a role as a TV personality. He has built a “brand” around that role. The Golf Channel seems to relish the idea of Brandel as the “loose cannon” of the crew (not unlike Johnny Miller on NBC) saying exactly what he thinks with seeming impunity from his superiors.
I do not know the gentleman personally, but on-air, he seems like an intelligent, articulate golf professional, very much on top of his subject matter, which is mostly the PGA Tour. He was also a very capable player (anyone who played and won on the PGA Tour is/was a great player). But remember, nowadays he is not being judged by what scores he shoots, but by how many viewers/readers his show and his book have (ratings). Bold statements sell, humdrum ones do not.
For example, saying that a teacher’s idiocy was exposed is a bold controversial statement that will sell, but is at best only partly true and entirely craven. If the accuser is not willing to name the accused, he is being unfair and self-serving. However, I think it’s dangerous to throw the baby out with the bathwater here; Brandel is a student of the game and I like a lot of what he says and thinks.
His overriding message in that interview is that golf over the last “30-40 years” has been poorly taught. He says the teachers have been too concerned with aesthetics, not paying enough attention to function. There is some truth in that, but Brandel is painting with a very broad brush here. Many, myself included, eschewed method teaching years ago for just that reason. Method teachers are bound to help some and not others. Maybe the “X swing” one player finds very useful, another cannot use it all.
Brandel was asked specifically about Matthew Wolff’s unique swing: Lifting the left heel, crossing the line at the top, etc. He answered, “of course he can play because that’s how he plays.” The problem would be if someone tried to change that because it “looked odd.” Any teacher worth his weight in salt would not change a swing simply because it looked odd if it was repeating good impact. I learned from the great John Jacobs that it matters not what the swing looks like if it is producing great impact.
Now, if he is objecting exclusively to those method teachers who felt a certain pattern of motions was the one true way to get to solid impact, I agree with him 100 percent. Buy many teach on an individual, ball flight and impact basis and did not generalize a method. So to say “golf instruction over the last 30-40 years” has been this or that is far too broad a description and unfair.
He goes on to say that the “Top Teacher” lists are “ridiculous.” I agree, mostly. While I have been honored by the PGA and a few golf publications as a “top teacher,” I have never understood how or why. NOT ONE person who awarded me those honors ever saw me give one lesson! Nor have they have ever tracked one player I coached. I once had a 19 handicap come to me and two seasons later he won the club championship-championship flight! By that I mean with that student I had great success. But no one knew of that progress who gave me an award.
On the award form, I was asked about the best, or most well-known students I had taught. In the golf journals, a “this-is-the-teacher-who-can-help-you” message is the epitome of misdirection. Writing articles, appearing on TV, giving YouTube video tips, etc. is not the measure of a teacher. On the list of recognized names, I’m sure there are great teachers, but wouldn’t you like to see them teach as opposed to hearing them speak? I’m assuming the “ridiculous” ones Brandel refers to are those teaching a philosophy or theory of movement and trying to get everyone to do just that.
When it comes to his criticism of TrackMan, I disagree. TrackMan does much more than help “dial in yardage.” Video cannot measure impact, true path, face-to-path relationship, centeredness of contact, club speed, ball speed, plane etc. Comparing video with radar is unfair because the two systems serve different functions. And if real help is better ball flight, which of course only results from better impact, then we need both a video of the overall motion and a measure of impact.
Now the specific example he cites of Jordan Spieth’s struggles being something that can be corrected in “two seconds” is hyperbolic at least! Nothing can be corrected that quickly simply because the player has likely fallen into that swing flaw over time, and it will take time to correct it. My take on Jordan’s struggles is a bit different, but he is a GREAT player who will find his way back.
Brandel accuses Cameron McCormick (his teacher) of telling him to change his swing. Do we know that to be true, or did Jordan just fall into a habit and Cameron is not seeing the change? I agree there is a problem; his stats prove that, but before we pick a culprit, let’s get the whole story. Again back to the sensationalism which sells! (Briefly, I believe Jordan’s grip is and has always been a problem but his putter and confidence overcame it. An active body and “quiet” hands is the motion one might expect of a player with a strong grip-for obvious reason…but again just my two teacher cents)
Anyway, “bitch-slapped” got him in hot water for other reasons obviously, and he did apologize over his choice of words, and to be clear he did not condemn the PGA as a whole. But because I have disagreements with his reasoning here does not mean Brandel is not a bright articulate golf professional, I just hope he looks before he leaps the next time, and realizes none of us are always right.
Some of my regular readers will recall I “laid down my pen” a few years ago, but it occurred to me, I would be doing many teachers a disservice if I did not offer these thoughts on this particular topic!
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We’ve finally reached The Masters and excitement is at an all-time high. The world of golf has been fractured for the better part of two years, but for a week at Augusta National, all of the outside noise will disappear. All of the best players in the world will be together seeking to make history.
In addition to betting on The Masters champion. This is one of the few weeks of the year where there are so many more markets to explore, with value to be had in plenty of different categories.
Throughout this article, I’ll discuss all of my favorite props and players for the 2024 Masters.
Placement Bets:
Tony Finau Top 5 +750 (DraftKings):
I badly wanted to include Tony Finau in my outright betting selections, but I simply ran out of room on my card. Additionally, it’s slightly difficult to see him hitting the putts necessary to win the Masters on back nine on Sunday. However, I do strongly believe he will play great golf this week at Augusta National.
In his past 24 rounds, Finau ranks 4th in Strokes Gained: Approach is always amongst the best drivers of the golf ball in the game. Back in 2019, Finau had a great chance to win The Masters. I expect him to be hanging around over the weekend once again in 2024.
Gary Woodland Top 20 +550 (DraftKings), Gary Woodland to make the cut -110 (DraftKings):
Last season, Gary Woodland had his best ever finish at The Masters in his eleven tries. The 39-year-old finished T14 and played incredibly steady across all four rounds.
In Woodland’s most recent start at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, he struck the ball incredibly well. He led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach (+8.8) and Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (+10.0).
Gary has been working with Butch Harmon and absolutely flushing the ball both in tournaments and during practice.
Woodland appears to be healthy once again and in a great place physically and mentally. If he can build off his impressive performance at Augusta last year, he can place inside the top ten in 2024.
Additionally, the make the cut number on Woodland seems generous considering the number of players who miss the cut will be relatively small this week. Woodland is striking it well enough to make the cut even if he’s hindered by a balky putter once again.
Thorbjorn Olesen Top 20 +400 (FanDuel):
The Thunder Bear, Thorbjorn Olesen, made his Masters debut in 2013 and finished an incredibly impressive T6 for the week. In the two additional starts he’s made at Augusta National since then, the Dane has continued to be incredibly solid, finishing T44 and T21.
This week, Olesen heads into the week playing some good golf. He gained 3.8 strokes on approach and 5.52 strokes around the green at last week’s Valero Texas Open on his way to a strong T14 finish. Back in January, he won the Ras Al Khaimah Championship on the DP World Tour.
Olesen has the skill set to be successful at Augusta and seems primed for a good performance this week.
Top Nationalities:
Sergio Garcia Top Spanish Player +280 (DraftKings):
I believe Sergio Garcia can get into contention this week with the way he’s striking the ball in addition to his good vibes with a refurbished version of the Scotty Cameron that he used at the 1999 PGA Championship at Medinah.
I am slightly concerned about the emotional letdown he may face after losing in a playoff at LIV Miami, but I believe a veteran and former Masters champion should be able to regroup and focus on an event far more meaningful.
This is essentially a tournament head-to-head with Jon Rahm at +280. While Rahm deserves to be respected this week, the history of the lack of success of defending champions at The Masters is difficult to ignore.
Joaquin Niemann Top South American Player -230 (FanDuel):
While I hate paying this much juice, I don’t see a world in which Joaquin Niemann isn’t the top South American this week at The Masters. Joaco comes in playing better golf than anyone in the world not named Scottie Scheffler and has a serious chance to win the green jacket.
He only needs to beat two players: Emiliano Grillo and Camilo Villegas.
Tournament Head-to-Heads:
Justin Thomas -110 over Collin Morikawa
JT isn’t having his best season but is playing a lot better than he is getting credit for at the moment. In the past three months, there are only six players on the PGA Tour who have averaged 1.7 Strokes Gained: Tee to Green or better. Justin Thomas (+1.7) is one of the six and is currently tied with Rory McIlroy (+1.7).
Morikawa, on the other hand, has been extremely poor with his irons, which is incredibly uncharacteristic for him. I can’t help but feel like something is completely off with the two-time major champion.
Tony Finau -110 over Wyndham Clark
I explained in the placement section why I’m so high on Tony Finau this week. With how well he’s striking the ball, it seems as if his floor is extremely high. I’m not sure if he can make the putts to win a green jacket but I believe he will be in the mix similarly to 2019 when Tiger Woods emerged from a crowded pack of contenders.
Clark is a debutant, and while some debutants have had success at The Masters, it certainly poses a challenge. I also don’t believe Augusta National suits Clark as well as some of the other major championship venues.
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It’s been over nine months since we saw Brian Harman parlay a dominant performance at Royal Liverpool into a claret jug. After another major offseason filled with a feud between the PGA Tour and LIV Golf, talks of a merger, and a multitude of questions regarding the future of the game, the golf world is desperate for all of the best players in the world to come together again for a major championship.
We return to Augusta National with excitement at a fever pitch. Scottie Scheffler has separated himself as the best player in the world heading into the Masters. At the moment, the 27-year-old seems to be an unstoppable force. However, questions about Scheffler’s up-and-down putter once again resurfaced as he missed multiple short putts at the Texas Children’s Houston Open including a 5’11” putt to force a playoff with Stephan Jaeger.
Additionally, a handful of the PGA Tour’s top players such as Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy, Will Zalatoris, Patrick Cantlay, Tommy Fleetwood and Jordan Spieth make their way to Augusta National with their current form in question.
Plenty of LIV golfers may be up to the task of conquering Augusta, but with so much time in between the last two majors, it’s not always easy to decipher how their games will stack up against Scheffler and co.
Last year, some important changes were made at Augusta National. The par-5 13th (Azalea) was lengthened by 35 yards and now measures 545 yards. Last year, Azalea played as the toughest of the four par 5s, and players averaged 4.74 for the week, which was down from 4.85 in 2022. However, eagles, birdies and bogeys were all up, so the lengthening achieved less pars, which equals more excitement.
Without further ado, let’s get into the course breakdown and analyze some important statistics for Augusta National.
Augusta National is now a 7,510-yard par-72 with lightning-fast Bentgrass greens. The course’s primary defenses are the contoured greens, swirling crosswinds, the topography of the course, which creates uneven lies and the small landing areas that golfers will need to hit to avoid tight run-off areas around the greens.
Past Winners at the Masters
- 2023: Jon Rahm (-12)
- 2022: Scottie Scheffler (-10)
- 2021: Hideki Matsuyama (-10)
- 2020: Dustin Johnson (-20)
- 2019: Tiger Woods (-13)
- 2018: Patrick Reed (-15)
- 2017: Sergio Garcia (-9)
- 2016: Danny Willett (-5)
- 2015: Jordan Spieth (-18)
- 2014: Bubba Watson (-8)
- 2013: Adam Scott (-9)
- 2012: Bubba Watson (-10)
- 2011: Charl Schwartzel (-14)
- 2010: Phil Mickelson (-16)
In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).
Key Stats For Augusta National
Let’s take a look at the six most important metrics at Augusta National and determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds. This should give us a good starting point for building out a betting card.
Strokes Gained: Approach
Approach is historically the most important statistic at Augusta National. The sloping, speedy greens and run-off areas create small landing spots that can be difficult to hit.
Last year, Jon Rahm ranked 6th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach. Overall, five of the past seven winners at Augusta have ranked in the top 6 in the category. Distance helps, but Augusta National is a second-shot golf course.
Total Strokes Gained: Approach in past 24 rounds:
- Scottie Scheffler (+1.30)
- Corey Conners (+0.99)
- Shane Lowry (+0.88)
- Tony Finau (+0.85)
- Austin Eckroat (+0.85)
Course History
More so than any other course on TOUR, familiarity with Augusta National is crucial. Only one player has ever won the Masters on their first try — Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. Meanwhile, there are 17 golfers in history who have multiple green jackets.
In most cases, the Masters champion has shown some good form at Augusta in the past. Prior to Scottie Scheffler’s 2022 victory, he finished T19 and T18 in his first two trips to the course. Prior to 2023, Rahm had finished in the top-10 of four of his six starts at The Masters.
Total Strokes Gained: Total at Augusta National in past 36 rounds (per round, minimum eight rounds):
- Will Zalatoris (+2.91)
- Jon Rahm (+2.28)
- Jordan Spieth (+2.22)
- Scottie Scheffler (+2.22)
- Dustin Johnson (+2.01)
- Rory McIlroy (+2.00)
- Hideki Matsuyama (+1.90)
- Justin Rose (+1.85)
- Rickie Fowler (+1.72)
- Russell Henley (+1.60)
Par 4 Scoring Average
Since plenty of players can reach the par 5s at Augusta in two, par-4 scoring becomes more important. The golfer who separates themselves on the par 4s will be able to gain ground on the field.
Par 4 Scoring Average in past 24 rounds:
- Scottie Scheffler (+3.88)
- Chris Kirk (+3.92)
- Jordan Spieth (+3.93)
- Peter Malnati (+3.93)
- Xander Schauffele (+3.93)
Strokes Gained: Around the Green
Golfers with a solid short game tend to fare well at Augusta National. The run-off areas are treacherous, and players will often be scrambling to get up and down.
The majority of players who have won at Augusta National have a great short game and have shown consistent ability to get up and down from tough spots.
Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green in past 24 rounds:
- Hideki Matsuyama (+0.71)
- Scottie Scheffler (+0.66)
- Patrick Reed (+0.61)
- Xander Schauffele (+0.53)
- Lucas Glover (+0.51)
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Augusta National is most definitely a second shot golf course. Golfers can get away with a missed fairway here and there, however, it’s important that the misses with driver aren’t too wide of the target or there is serious trouble to be had.
Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee in past 24 rounds:
- Bryson DeChambeau (+1.04)
- Rory McIlroy (+0.85)
- Scottie Scheffler (+0.84)
- Xander Schauffele (+0.71)
- Ludvig Aberg (+0.68)
Strokes Gained Putting: Fast Bentgrass
The USGA calculates that, on average, the greens at Augusta National are the fastest greens in the country. Three-putting is fairly common at Augusta and golfers must be able to combat the speed of the greens with effective lag putting.
Total Strokes Gained: Putting on Fast Bentgrass in past 24 rounds:
- Justin Rose (+1.43)
- Sahith Theegala (+0.97)
- Min Woo Lee (+0.88)
- Cameron Smith (+0.70)
- Patrick Reed (+0.70)
Statistical Model
Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the six key statistical categories previously discussed.
These rankings are comprised of SG: App (25%); Course History (16%); Par 4 Scoring Average (10%); SG: Putting on Fast Bentgrass (16%); SG: OTT (16%). and SG: ARG (16%).
Last year, Jon Rahm ranked first in this model
- Scottie Scheffler
- Xander Schauffele
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Tony Finau
- Justin Thomas
- Shane Lowry
- Will Zalatoris
- Corey Conners
- Si Woo Kim
- Rory McIlroy
- Stephan Jaeger
- Jordan Spieth
- Chris Kirk
- Keegan Bradley
- Wyndham Clark
- Sahith Theegala
- Russell Henley
- Collin Morikawa
- Matt Fitzpatrick
- Patrick Reed
My 2023 Pick:
Jon Rahm (+950) (FanDuel)
A few months ago, I never thought that I’d be able to say that Rahm would be going slightly under the radar heading into the 2023 Masters. It’s not that Rahm has done anything wrong, but both Scheffler and McIlroy have undoubtedly surpassed him as the scorching hot, super-elite, top of the market betting favorite category.
Since his win at Riviera, the Spaniard has finished 39th at Bay Hill, withdrew at The Players Championship, and failed to get out of the group stage at the WGC Dell Match Play. On the other hand, Scheffler won The PLAYERS Championship and McIlroy finished third at the WGC Dell Match Play.
Rahm has made six starts at The Masters and has come in the top-10 in four of them. The 28-year-old has incredible power off the tee, a requirement at Augusta which always plays longer than the scorecard indicates. He’s also incredible around the greens and ranks third in the field in Strokes Gained: Short Game, which is a combination of around the green play and putting, in his past 24 rounds.
As we’ve seen over the years at The Masters, having the ability to chip and putt your way out of difficult situations is a fundamental aspect of getting it done at Augusta National.
While Scheffler has made a strong case to be viewed as the world’s best player, I still believe that title belongs to Rahm. This will be the year Rahmbo joins the ranks of Seve Ballesteros, José María Olazábal, and Sergio Garcia as natives of Spain to don a green jacket.
2024 The Masters Picks
Brooks Koepka +2500 (DraftKings)
In order to win the 2024 Masters, a player will have to go toe-to-toe with Scottie Scheffler, who’s hitting the ball as anyone in golf over the last two seasons. When building a betting card this week, it’s important for me to choose players that I believe can stare Scheffler down on the weekend at Augusta National. Brooks Koepka fits that bill.
Koepka’s lackluster performance at LIV Miami is concerning, but he’s the type of player who can turn it on quickly during the week of a major championship. Although I’d have preferred, he played well last week, I’ll take the odds discount we got as a result of his most recent results.
Prior to LIV Miami, Koepka appeared to be in solid form. He finished in the top twelve in four of five starts on LIV this season. When it comes to the five-time major champion, it’s well known that he has another gear for major championships. Everything he’s done both in the off-season and during the LIV season is to gear up for the year’s first major at Augusta National.
In his past five starts at Augusta National, the 33-year-old has three top-7 finishes, including two runners-up. The two years when he played poorly (2019 and 2020) were when he was nowhere near 100% healthy. All signs point to Brooks being in a great place physically as we enter major season.
Last year, Koepka was the 36 and 54-hole leader prior to letting the green jacket slip away to Jon Rahm. He used the result as a springboard to win his 5th major at Oak Hill at the PGA Championship.
Brooks enters the week looking to get one step closer to achieving the career grand slam and golf fans would be foolish to rule him out.
Joaquin Niemann +2800 (BetRivers)
Full disclosure, I bet Niemann the second he was invited to The Masters back in February at +8000. Although the odds have shortened dramatically since then, I can’t pretend that the Chilean isn’t one of the players who has a real chance to win the 2024 Masters.
While I was speaking with Niemann back in March, he told me how much he loves Augusta National.
“Yeah, it’s a place that I love. I’ve been playing good golf. Especially last year, I wasn’t playing my best golf, and I had a good week there and made triple on 11 that kind of killed me a little bit.
I feel like I’m getting more ready and more prepared every time. My game is getting better too. I know that I’m playing good enough to be in that situation that I can have a chance to win the Masters and it’s all about how I react to that situation.
So yeah, I’m going to prepare myself to be ready for that situation if it happens and I can fight for the title on the Sunday which would be awesome.”
As Niemann alluded to, the Chilean was able to have his best career finishes at The Masters (T16) despite not being in the best form. This year, Niemann comes into the week playing better golf than anyone in the world with the exception of Scottie Scheffler. The 25-year-old has won three times since December and has shown the world why he was regarded as one of the games future stars since he was a teenager.
Historically speaking, Joaco’s win at Riviera a few years back seems to be an indicator of potential success at Augusta National. Fourteen players have won at both historic courses including Hideki Matsuyama, Jon Rahm, Phil Mickelson, Dustin Johnson, Nick Faldo, Tom Watson and Ben Hogan.
Niemann has all the shots to be successful at Augusta National. His low stingers will come in handy on plenty of holes down the stretch and he can work it both ways, playing the high draw or the low fade. He also putts best on Bentgrass greens and likes them fast. Whether PGA Tour or LIV, talent will always reign supreme, and I’ll always bet on that talent.
Cameron Smith (+4000) (FanDuel)
Cameron Smith is another player who we should get an odds discount on based off of the results at LIV Miami. Smith was forced to withdraw prior to the second round due to food poisoning. In my opinion, the number has drifted to a place where I’d consider it a “bet the number” play on the talent.
Smith is a contender for the green jacket anytime he tees it up at Augusta National. The Australian absolutely loves the golf course and has four top-10 finishes in his last six trips to the golf course. In both 2020 and 2022, Smith had a real chance of winning The Masters and came up just short, finishing T2 and T3 in those two tries. In his past 36 rounds, he ranks 4th in Strokes Gained: Total per round at Augusta.
In order to be successful at Augusta National, players must be creative around the greens and be shot makers who have plenty of ways to get around the golf course. Cam has all the shots required to be successful at the course at his touch around the greens will continue to serve him well in his hopes for a green jacket.
Smith is arguably the best putter in the world and has the capability to win a golf tournament on and around the greens. He’s already taken down Rory McIlroy at the home of golf on his way to a claret jug and is one of the few players who can stare down any of the world’s top golfers on the back nine at Augusta National.
Justin Thomas +4000 (FanDuel)
With how he’s been playing since his 2022 PGA Championship win, you may be shocked to see the name “Justin Thomas” in this preview. However, JT has drifted to a place on the odds board where I believe it’s worth taking a shot on the talent of a two-time major champion in his prime.
It’s not all bad for Thomas this season. He finished T6 at the signature Pebble Beach event, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T12 at the signature Arnold Palmer Invitational. In his last 24 rounds, JT ranks 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 14th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 29th in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bentgrass greens.
Despite missing the cut last season, Thomas has played pretty well at Augusta National. He ranks 13th in Strokes Gained: Total in his past 36 rounds at the course. He finished T4 in 2020, T21 in 2021 and T8 in 2022.
I believe the 2024 edition of The Masters is completely wide open. The past few years has been frustrating for Thomas fans, but I believe his peak form may be a bit closer than people realize.
Sergio Garcia +12000 (FanDuel)
Earlier this season, Garcia dueled with Joaquin Niemann before finally losing on the fourth playoff hole late into the night. Despite the loss, the 44-year-old seemed to gain confidence in his game. The results that followed weren’t spectacular, but in terms of his ball striking he’s shown some flashes of vintage Sergio.
At LIV Miami last week, Garcia played well on a massive golf course, losing in a playoff to Dean Burmester. He continued pumped the ball into the fairway and hit massive iron shot after massive iron shot. He also used a refurbished Scotty Cameron that he used in the 1999 PGA Championship at Medinah. The putter served him incredibly well until he missed a short putt on the 18th hole to win the event. Overall, he gained 7.1 strokes putting at Doral.
Sergio Garcia is once again headed to Augusta National with a chip on his shoulder. Of course, having a chip on the shoulder is nothing new for the fiery Spaniard, but this year, the 2017 Masters Champion will arrive at Augusta with his game clicking on all cylinders.
Sergio winning a second green jacket is seemingly an almost impossible feat, but magical things tend to happen on the hallowed grounds of Augusta National.
Adam Scott +11000 (FanDuel)
Betting Adam Scott over the past handful of years has been a Masters staple for me, and like many traditions, has been a hard one for me to let go of.
Last week, Scott finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open in a windy and difficult week. I believe the wind will be a major factor this week at Augusta National, and the more difficult the tournament plays, the more I favor Scott. Scott also ranks 5th in his past 24 rounds on Strokes Gained: Putting on Fast Bentgrass and has the short game these days that could help him contend in a major.
Since his win in 2013, Scott’s history at The Masters has been spotty. He has some poor finishes alongside a T9 in 2017 and a T18 in 2019. He’s been playing some solid golf this season, finishing T8 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T19 at the Genesis Invitational.
(All photos in piece belong to LIV Golf)
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Since 2013, I have created a filtering process to help determine the players who are most likely to win the green jacket based on criteria that have strongly predictive outcomes to success at Augusta. The list of players that can win at Augusta is usually filtered down to 20-24 players and in that time I have correctly shortlisted every Masters champion.
This includes last year’s winner, Jon Rahm. Even though Rahm essentially walked away with the green jack and did not make it very close, there were some close calls on top of the leaderboard as I had filtered out Phil Mickelson (t-2nd) and Patrick Reed (t-4th) as the LIV Tour is still behind on providing advanced analytics for their tour. Russell Henley was also filtered out and finished t-4th, five strokes from Rahm’s winning score of 276.
If you’re watching at home, the “critical holes” that will likely determine the top finishers will be holes No. 7, 8, 11 and 13. The 11th hole is projected to be the most critical of holes as over the past five Masters the top players have gained nearly a 1.5 strokes for the tournament on that hole alone.
Just like last year’s column I will get the LIV Tour players I’ve filtered out of the way. Since LIV Tour does not provide ShotLink or Trackman data, it’s more of a guessing game as to how certain LIV Tour golfers are playing. I did utilize recent performance as well as performance at Mayakoba and Doral as they were two former PGA Tour courses that have some semblance of crossover to playing Augusta.
Phil Mickelson
Thorbjorn Olesen
Charl Schwartzel
Cameron Smith
Bubba Watson
Admittedly Cameron Smith and Phil Mickelson are hard to leave out, but both have not played well as of late.
Next, I filtered out the amateurs and all first-time professional attendees. The Masters has only been won three times by a first-time attendee: Fuzzy Zoeller was the last to win in 1979. Prior to Zoeller though, it was Horton Smith in the inaugural event in 1934 followed by Gene Sarazen in 1935
Ludvig Aberg
Akshay Bhatia
Wyndham Clark
Eric Cole
Santiago de la Fuente (a)
Nick Dunlap
Austin Eckroat
Stewart Hagestad (a)
Ryo Hisatsune
Lee Hodges
Nicolai Hojgaard
Stephan Jaeger
Jake Knapp
Christo Lamprecht (a)
Peter Malnati
Denny McCarthy
Grayson Murray
Matthieu Pavon
Adam Schenk
Neal Shipley (a)
Jasper Stubbs (a)
Out of the first time invitees the data likes Ludvig Aberg and Eric Cole to play the best at Augusta National.
I also filter out old Masters champions that I do not believe can get into contention anymore.
Fred Couples
Jose Maria Olazabal
Vijay Singh
Mike Weir
Tiger Woods
Recency has a strong predictive value for player performance and missing the cut in the event in the prior week greatly reduces the likelihood of winning the following week compared to players that miss the cut, take a week off, and then play the following week. Therefore I filter out all players that missed the cut at the Valero Texas Open last week.
Byeong Hun An
Harris English
Rickie Fowler
Ryan Fox
Zach Johnson
Tom Kim
Erik van Rooyen
Camilo Villegas
I will also filter out the players that have never made the cut at the Masters:
Kurt Kitayama
Adrian Meronk
A Tradition Unlike Any Other…
Augusta National has traditionally favored longer hitters and even moreso in the past 20 years of the event. Of course there has been exceptions as in 2007 the short hitting Zach Johnson ended up winning the event.
Critics of my filtering system point out Johnson’s victory as a case for short hitters being able to win at Augusta, but they neglect the fact that Johnson’s victory came in historically low temperatures in the 40’s with wind gusts reaching 35 mph. That made the par-5’s almost unreachable in two shots and the course stressed wedge play and short game around the green where Zach had a sizable advantage.
It is projected to rain early on Thursday and then the weather is supposed to be sunny and warm for the rest of the week. It depends on how quickly the course dries up, but if it does dry out fairly quickly that will give the longer hitters the advantage as they will be able to reach certain par-5’s in two shots that the shorter hitters cannot reach if they don’t hit a quality tee shot and there may be par-5’s that some of the long hitters can reach in two shots with a short iron. Therefore I will filter out the following players due to a lack of distance off the tee:
Corey Conners
Lucas Glover
Emiliano Grillo
Brian Harman
Si Woo Kim
Chris Kirk
Shane Lowry
Colin Morikawa
JT Poston
Justin Rose
Sepp Straka
Out of these players the data likes Lowry and Morikawa the most. Both have good history at Augusta and they both just narrowly missed the distance benchmark set in the filter and both are excellent long iron players.
Last year I created a new formula to better determine ball height as Augusta has historically not taken too kindly to a low ball flight. Out of the 5 players filtered out for low ball flight using the new formula the best finish was only t-29th by Si Woo Kim. This year I’ve filtered out the following players.
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Sungjae Im
Luke List
Joaquin Niemann
Justin Thomas
Every year I filter out the poor performers on approach shots from 175-225 yards as Augusta National puts a lot of stress on those shots. Last year I filtered out nine players and three of them missed the cut with only Jordan Spieth finishing in the top-15 (t-4th) as the rest of the players were never a threat.
Here are the golfers I’m filtering out due to poor play from 175-225 yards:
Patrick Cantlay
Cameron Davis
Jason Day
Tommy Fleetwood
Russell Henley
Max Homa
Rory McIlroy
Jordan Spieth
Nick Taylor
Rory had a nice outing at the Valero Texas Open and hit his irons better there, but appears to be struggling with a leftward miss. Other than that, Rory still has the game to win his first green jacket. Henley is usually one of the better iron players on Tour, but he has struggled this season from 175-225 yards and is a short hitter anyway.
I will also filter out Danny Willett as he is coming off injury and making his comeback at the Masters.
That leaves the 22 players that can win the Masters:
Keegan Bradley (150/1)
Sam Burns (60/1)
Bryson DeChambeau (25/1)
Tony Finau (50/1)
Sergio Garcia (100/1)
Adam Hadwin (175/1)
Tyrrell Hatton (80/1)
Viktor Hovland (35/1)
Dustin Johnson (40/1)
Brooks Koepka (16/1)
Min Woo Lee (70/1)
Hideki Matsuyama (20/1)
Taylor Moore (300/1)
Jon Rahm (12/1)
Patrick Reed (80/1)
Xander Schauffele (18/1)
Scottie Scheffler (4/1)
Adam Scott (100/1)
Sahith Theegala (50/1)
Gary Woodland (250/1)
Cameron Young (50/1)
Will Zalatoris (35/1)
Here’s my personal top-10 picks:
Keegan Bradley (150/1)
Sam Burns (60/1)
Bryson DeChambeau (35/1)
Tony Finau (50/1)
Viktor Hovland (35/1)
Dustin Johnson (40/1)
Hideki Matsuyama (20/1)
Jon Rahm (12/1)
Xander Schauffele (18/1)
Scottie Scheffler (4/1)
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Newton Hino
Apr 6, 2020 at 10:39 pm
Like Main stream media(NBC Golf Channel) they strive on sensationalism and outrages notions etc.
Chamblee is no exception, they need controversy and ratings. So this won’t stop no matter how absurd.
Dennis Clark
Apr 6, 2020 at 3:16 pm
Authors note: I just got a call from Mr. Bob Toski complimenting this article. Bob, of course, is one of the legendary players and teachers of the game, and it was very nice of him to call and say thanks. We talked about individual methods, Jordan Spieth’s grip, and a bunch of his tour days. It was a pleasure to hear from him. He’s 93 and doing well! Thx again Mr. Toski.
Dennis Clark
Apr 6, 2020 at 3:10 pm
Author’s note: I
Al Wood
Apr 6, 2020 at 1:20 pm
Ben Hogan was asked many times why he didn’t have a swing coach or teacher, and he said that he couldn’t find anyone who could beat him. He figured it out on his own. I think too many swing thoughts in your head causes bad reps. Play by feel and get up and wing it and you’ll play better for the average golfer.
Dennis Clark
Apr 6, 2020 at 3:02 pm
the answer is in the dirt! he was one of a kind
Evan
Apr 7, 2020 at 5:23 am
Hogan had plenty of lessons and influences in developing his swing-Stan Leonard, Sam Byrd, Henry Picard, Demaret…It was far from a home made swing.
Dennis Clark
Apr 7, 2020 at 9:31 am
Correct, No one is actually “self taught”. That description generally means “no formal lessons”. But nobody had formal lessons back then did they? That’s like “self help books” :). what does that mean? I’m guessing anyone who is good at golf got there with a decent starting point on the grip, and someone showed them that grip. I had no formal training but i know plenty of people showed me things along the way.
Lessonswasteoftimemoney
Apr 6, 2020 at 10:59 am
After wasting years taking lessons(neighbour is a pga pro at top course in the country) I came up with the idea of just asking a good player on the range what I was doing wrong. Pros always want to totally change your swing rather than just tweaking it. Guy on the range said my practice swing was perfect, but with my actual swing I was trying to kill the ball and was getting off balance. Problem solved!! Just swing easy now and shots are amazing. I was surprised that they actually go farther!! Would have been nive ifmy neighbour the pro had noticed that years ago!!!!!
Hoganben
Apr 6, 2020 at 10:47 am
I came up with the best way to help.my swing…instead of wasting more money on lessons from pga pros I just asked guys I saw hitting perfect shots on the range while down in Florida. I had wasted another $125 usd on a another lesson from a PGA pro who used to play on tour and had got nowhere again. My neighbor is a PGA pro at a top course in the country and he has been of no help over 15 years. On day.we.were.playing an d he said I used to play better…I.thought yeah before I moved next door to you! Pros always want to totally change your swing. Anyway one of the guys hitting ball on the range in Florida said my practice swings with my irons were perfect. He said when I took my actual swing I was trying to absolutely kill the ball which was true. So now my actual swing is nice and easy like my practice swing and I see that the ball actually goes farther this way
Freefrompros
Apr 6, 2020 at 10:41 am
I came up with the best way to help.my swing…instead of wasting more money on lessons from pga pros I just asked guys I saw hitting perfect shots on the range while down in Florida. I had wasted another $125 usd on a another lesson from a PGA pro who used to play on tour and had got nowhere again. My neighbor is a PGA pro at a top course in the country and.he has.been of no help over 15 years. On day.we.were.playing an d he said I used.to play better…I.thought yeah before I moved next door to you! Pros always want to totally change your swing. Anyway one of the guys hitting ball on the range in Florida said my practice swings with my irons were perfect. He said when I took my actual swing I was trying to absolutely kill the ball which was true. So now my actual swing is nice and easy like my practice swing and I see that the ball actually goes farther this way
Walter
Apr 6, 2020 at 10:39 am
Dennis, Are you saying Jordan’s grip is too strong or did I misread your intention. I look at his grip and if anything it looks very weak on the left hand and normal on the right hand. If anything seems weird is how long a left thumb he has in his grip.
Dennis Clark
Apr 7, 2020 at 9:35 am
too WEAK in my opinion. His upper body runs ahead of the golf ball starting down, a sign of a weak grip. he’s a VERY talented player though and he will be back. Maybe after a slight GRIP adjustment.
david goodman
Apr 6, 2020 at 10:17 am
I enjoy listening to Brandell, and Johnny Miller was my favourite. For the most part I agree with Chamblee’s article, and I also agree with what Dennis has to say here. I am also a teacher, and only my students could say if I’m good or not. but I have listened to some teachers near my on the range giving instruction and I’ve rolled my eyes. As said, people who paint with a broad brush always get it wrong. A couple of comments here stated that all teachers suck and can’t play, absolutely incorrect. It IS about ball flight as John Jacobs said,(who I spent some time with, and thought he was brilliant). The only area of disagreement I might have with Dennis Clark is the value of trackman to golfers other professionals. But the key is to find the teacher whose language you understand and identify with. Faldo knows golf, but on the surface they’re too technical for me as a student; I’d rather have Penick as a teacher. Again it’s all a question of your own style of understanding.
Evan
Apr 6, 2020 at 7:30 am
Good to see you back writing here Dennis. There are great teachers out there for sure, such as yourself, however there are plenty who aren’t. On balance, however, I think the game has been taught poorly and that undoubtedly is a factor in the game’s decline in popularity.
TacklingDummy
Apr 5, 2020 at 4:34 pm
This is a good take on the situation because Clark looks at the entire picture rather than take offense by one controversial statement. Nowadays, people seem to judge someone on a few statements and don’t look at the 99.9% of statements they made before. However, Chamblee could have made his statement more tactfully and would of delivered his message better.
Raj lp
Apr 5, 2020 at 2:00 pm
I’ve liked Chamblee’s take on most topics. Not to say I always agree with it but he speaks so openly about most topics. It’s a breath of fresh air compared to walking on egg shells. I’ve had lessons from great teachers who have told me something like “keep your foot planted” which have salvaged a season and those that have tweaked the backswing, the impact, and the follow through in a single lesson which have cost me 2 years of misery.
The best teachers will get you to a great impact position regardless of what template suits you.
Dennis Clark
Apr 7, 2020 at 9:41 am
The idea is WHY did he/she say keep your heel planted. If the teacher cannot explain the reason your lifting your heel is affecting IMPACT, then it not germane to the issue. Should jack Nicklaus give back all his majors? Or Snead all his wins? The left heel like so many things is a preference not a principle. Thx for reading
mikeyC
Apr 5, 2020 at 12:54 pm
In golf, more than any other sport, commentators are afraid to be critical of the games stars. Who is the Stephen A. Smith of the Golf world? When did it become a sin to criticize someone in sports for their performance? Brandel is a breath of fresh air for his candor. Plus he does his homework and knows what he’s talking about.
Dennis Clark
Apr 5, 2020 at 4:38 pm
He’s not being critical of the stars; he’s being critical of a trend if golf instruction which he feels has misdirected some stars. Again, too broad a brush. Many of us do not instruct by how “pretty” swings are, but how well they are getting to good solid impact. If a golfers is spinning around three times and falls down when he hits it, BUT HAS GREAT IMPACT CONSISTENTLY, leave that swing ALONE, that is HIS best swing
Chip2win
Apr 5, 2020 at 7:19 am
So, my take from reading this article is that Dennis thinks that Brandel is MOSTLY right.
Scott McDonald
Apr 5, 2020 at 12:02 pm
Agreed and I believe that he has made some great points. Chamber has a right to his opinions impact is impact but you must get the ball in the hole. Never used Trakman and have little interest. Hard to believe that PGA award winners are not visited but many do section programs where info is shared. PGA is on the hot seat now. Don’t talk about growing the game. DO It. Play with members and show them a great time. Get out and be seen in the community..
Dennis Clark
Apr 5, 2020 at 4:47 pm
I made it clear what I agree with and what I don’t. He’s referring to method teaching and a “trend” in something he calls golf instruction. Every teacher should work with students individually, not a use a Method for every one. And he’s not giving Trackman enough credit; it does serve a goof purpose.I really don’t know what Brandel knows about teaching. Can he stand behind someone who’s hitting the ball on the hosel 4 out of 5 times, and correct it? We wouldn’t know because he doesn’t do that, no record to judge.
steve
Apr 4, 2020 at 8:51 pm
Not a fan of Brandel, seems to make bold statements, even if valid, for his profile, ratings, and clicks…I’m even wasting my time now reading and writing about him, I tune him out when he’s on TV.
Mitch
Apr 4, 2020 at 8:25 pm
None of these teachers can play worth a crap themselves , so why listen to them
John
Apr 5, 2020 at 11:39 am
This is so true. I have had contemplated lessons, and have asked instructors if I can see them hit. Many has said “I don’t think so. I don’t really play, I teach now. blah, blah, blah”
I will say, I have had really bad lessons before. I had a really bad grip, and three instructors missed it until I found one who was like, “wait, your set up sucks. You can’t do anything in golf until grip is fixed.”
grip fixed, body lines fixed themselves, and finally progress.
bottom line, there are bad teachers out there that are terrible. They teach one swing, and don’t fix basic issues. I wish I could get a refund.
Dennis Clark
Apr 5, 2020 at 4:53 pm
RUN! A teacher who cannot demonstrate good solid golf shots has no credibility whatsoever. I’m 71, can shoot my age, hit high draws, low cuts etc on command. Not bragging , just saying we owe that to students.
chip75
Apr 5, 2020 at 1:34 pm
Conversely, many of the best players aren’t exactly great teachers either. A lot of television analysis is basically filling dead-air. How many times have you seen Tiger’s swing taken apart, for a myriad of faults when his swing is basically identical to the one they’re comparing it too? Strike is king, but we rarely hear modern commentators say that a player just mishit it.
As to Spieth, who knows? You find over time tried and trusted feelings or swing keys stop working, players can tie themselves in knots looking for answers, but golf is a game where a couple of inches in ball position can make the difference between striping it or hitting it out of bounds. Our bodies are the same lose 10 pounds, gain ten pounds, everything changes.
Brad Worthington
Apr 4, 2020 at 6:58 pm
Dennis,
Well constructed article with sound discussion points. I’m glad you took the time to write it!
Baba Booey
Apr 4, 2020 at 4:22 pm
One thing I’ve learned about this latest Brandel episode is most instructors are snowflakes (and to an extent this author too).
A. Commoner
Apr 4, 2020 at 7:23 pm
Some people can be glad they don’t have to write for a living.
GolfMan
Apr 4, 2020 at 1:42 pm
I agree with Brandel Chamblee’s comments. I believe golf instruction has gotten worse bc teachers aren’t as experienced as they once were. Back in the day, most of the pro golfers were teachers as well. Think Sam Snead. Just bc you have a PGA degree in teaching golf doesn’t mean you will be a good teacher.
Dennis Clark
Apr 5, 2020 at 5:01 pm
By the same token, Snead never spent 8 hours standing behind students watching thousands of swings for years and years. Teaching does take experience which only comes from TEACHING. I had Sam, God rest his his soul, to a club once to do a clinic and the hour was one of the least informative sessions I’ve ever witnessed. Telling golfers what YOU do because you are so accomplished at the game, does very little for them. Thx for reading.
GolfMan
Apr 5, 2020 at 9:06 pm
Perhaps Sam Snead wasn’t the best teacher, but he certainly knew what it took to be a good player. Nevertheless, you can’t be a great teacher by simply teaching methods learned in a book. A great teacher has an understanding of the game beyond what the book says. A great teacher knows the strategy of the game, has played golf at a high level and knows what works under pressure, and through many hours of practice knows what works and what doesn’t. Sure a teacher with little experience could teach someone the proper grip and setup and some fundamentals, but not much beyond that. It’s hard to teach a language when you don’t know the language yourself.
GolfMan
Apr 5, 2020 at 9:35 pm
Perhaps Snead wasn’t the best teacher, but he certainly knew what it took to be a great player. Nevertheless, you can’t be a good teacher by just reading a book. A great teacher has an understanding beyond what the book says. A great teacher knows the strategy of the game, has played golf at a high level and knows what works under pressure, and through countless hours of practice has figured out what works and what doesn’t. Sure, a teacher who relies on methods from a book and has little or no experience playing the game at a high level may teach you a proper grip and setup, but not much beyond that. It’s hard to teach a language when you don’t know the language yourself.
Keith Finley
Apr 6, 2020 at 10:13 am
Anecdote about Snead- when asked how he draws a shot, Sam replied, “I think draw”. Hmmm
ChipNRun
Apr 4, 2020 at 1:34 pm
My history: I have a hot-cold golf swing and – until the last 10 years – moved around USA quite a bit for work. So, I have had golf lessons from quite a few different people.
A good instructor is one who can see his student’s swing problem, and help the student improve. (If a student has a motivation problem – doesn’t like focused practice – the instructor can’t do much.) Some instructors, we just didn’t connect. Others we connected quiet well.
Some instructors had “one way” they thought all golfers should swing – a way that had NOT worked for me in the past. On other occasions, a post-round tip from an 8-HDCPer was immensely helpful.
For an instructor to be “good” requires: 1. flexible knowledge of the game + 2. good interpersonal fit with student + 3. willing of student to practice effectively.
On Jordan Spieth’s swing: When JS’s tee shots start going awry, the PGA broadcast’s slow motion video often shows a torso too quiet on downswing, with the arms taking over and delivering something to the LEEEFT!
JS is a top golfer who has a recurring swing problem that shows up on slo-mo a couple of times a season. Like many top golfers, JS moves in and out of the ZONE on a month-to-month basis.
Too much nit-picking can lead to “paralysis by analysis.” When I have a mid-seasons lump, if I take a week off I can usually get on track in half a bucket of range balls. I just had too much mental clutter to swing smoothly.
Sooner or later, you just have to line up your shot and hit the ball!!!
Joey
Apr 5, 2020 at 1:24 am
Ummm Isn’t Jordan’s miss alway a push fade? Can you clarify what you mean here?
ChipNRun
Apr 6, 2020 at 12:38 pm
At the 2019 AT&T Pro-Am at Pebble Beach missed tee shots way left on the Saturday back nine: No. 13 to another fairway (double bogie) and left into ocean on No. 18.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/golf/2019/11/26/column-shots-that-defined-the-year-in-golf/40710713/
For shots missed right, look to 2017 and back-to-back missed cuts in the Players and the AT&T Byron Nelson. He shot 75s on both Friday rounds, including a 9 on the Par 5 No. 17 at AT&T/Byron: Two tee shots blocked OB right.
But, Spieth did rebound a month later for back-to-back wins at the Travelers and the Open Championship.
To quote the old Jerry Reid song: When you’re hot you’re hot, when you’re not you’re not.
Dennis Clark
Apr 5, 2020 at 5:16 pm
His grip is notoriously weak. If you add a weak a weak grip to a steep transition, you get an OPEN face which you are compelled to turn into the shot and swing left. Also when the grip is weak and the transition is steep, we have to “BACK UP” to get the golf club back on plane and into a hit position. I agree that his transition was flatter, lower earlier in his career, but look at Phil’s transition; it’s likely the steepest of any GREAT player, but he uses his hands brilliantly, not quietly. Those two MATCH, right now Jordan’s two moves DO NOT match. But again, he is a GREAT PLAYER who will find his way back.