Opinion & Analysis
The Wedge Guy: Realistic expectations
(Today’s post is one I actually wrote nearly eight years ago, but I’m using it to start a series about “thinking your way to better golf.” I hope you enjoy the next few weeks.)
One of the great regrets of my life is that I missed the fatherhood experience, never having had children of my own. As I get older, I find that I gravitate to the younger folks, and offer my help whenever I can, whether on the golf course, on the water fishing, or just life in general. One of my joys is working with younger kids on their golf. That includes instruction, of course, but what I think is more important for them in the developmental stages is to learn to manage
their expectations. Actually, we all could benefit from that bit of advice.
On Sunday, I had the joy of playing with the 16-year-old son of one of our partners at SCOR Golf. Kyle is a tremendously talented young man who I’ve worked with quite a bit, but he really hasn’t committed himself to golf yet. I’m talking about the kind of commitment that keeps him working hard at it as long as there is daylight. He might not ever get that, and that’s OK, but he hasn’t figured out yet that your expectations can only rise from your achievements, and not from your desires.
On a core level, Kyle has great strength but hasn’t learned to harness it yet. He wants to choose his clubs based on his maximum distance with that club—if everything falls exactly into place. Like most golfers, and especially young ones,
he’s enamored with the power game. When we play, I show him that throttling back and controlling the shot is much more reliable.
What I discovered Sunday is that Kyle has very unrealistic expectations about what a round of golf should really be like. He, like most of us, expects all the shots to be struck solidly and fly like he imagined. So I explained that he hasn’t
earned the right to have such expectations yet. His scores average around 90-95 and his best ever is an 85.
So, here’s my point (finally)
Kyle was off to a good start with three pars and two bogeys in his first five holes. He kind of “fat-pulled” a 4-iron approach on a 200-plus yard par three. His shot left him only 10-15 yards short and left of the green, but he wheeled around, dropped his club and expressed his disgust with the shot. And I got on him about it. “What’s wrong with that? It’s a difficult par-3 with a 20 mph crosswind and you are in good position to get up and down or at least make no worse than bogey on one of the hardest holes on the course.”
I went on to explain that he was only two pars away from tying his best round ever, and if he just played for bogeys – and stay excited—he would probably make twice that many or more. And I seemed to get through to him of the reality
of golf, or his golf at least. He stayed in the moment, with only a little more cajoling from me, and shot an 86—one shot off his best ever! And I MADE him congratulate himself on his accomplishments. Instead of focusing on those few
shots that were bad, and the 2-3 doubles he made, I told him to focus on the good that came out of that round.
So, here’s my point (or points) for managing your expectations, too.
- If you are a low single-digit player, you’ll still only hit 2-3 shots a round just like you wanted.
- If you play to a 12 or higher, any shot that keeps you in the game isn’t really all that bad.
- Regardless of your skill level, there is no such thing as a “birdie hole” when you are standing on the tee. A “birdie hole” can only be claimed when you have executed an approach to makeable putt range.
- If you are a 12-15 handicap player, you only need to make 3-6 pars to beat your handicap, as long as you don’t chop up any holes. Bogeys are good scores unless you regularly shoot in the 70s!
So, the next time you are on the golf course, try to set and manage realistic expectations. Your golf will be better for it, and you’ll have a ton more fun.
NOTE: I read a great article this morning by Geoff Ogilvy about the quality of golf being played on the PGA Tour. It reflects what I’ve often said about how the modern tour professional plays the game. Here it is.
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19th Hole
Vincenzi’s LIV Golf Singapore betting preview: Course specialist ready to thrive once again
After another strong showing in Australia, LIV Golf will head to Sentosa Golf Club in Singapore looking to build off of what was undoubtedly their best event to date.
Sentosa Golf Club sits on the southern tip of Singapore and is one of the most beautiful courses in the world. The course is more than just incredible scenically; it was also rated 55th in Golf Digest’s top-100 courses in 2022-2023 and has been consistently regarded as one of the best courses in Asia. Prior to being part of the LIV rotation, the course hosted the Singapore Open every year since 2005.
Sentosa Golf Club is a par 71 measuring 7,406 yards. The course will require precise ball striking and some length off the tee. It’s possible to go low due to the pristine conditions, but there are also plenty of hazards and difficult spots on the course that can bring double bogey into play in a hurry. The Bermudagrass greens are perfectly manicured, and the course has spent millions on the sub-air system to keep the greens rolling fast. I spoke to Asian Tour player, Travis Smyth, who described the greens as “the best [he’s] ever played.”
Davis Love III, who competed in a Singapore Open in 2019, also gushed over the condition of the golf course.
“I love the greens. They are fabulous,” the 21-time PGA Tour winner said.
Love III also spoke about other aspects of the golf course.
“The greens are great; the fairways are perfect. It is a wonderful course, and it’s tricky off the tee.”
“It’s a long golf course, and you get some long iron shots. It takes somebody hitting it great to hit every green even though they are big.”
As Love III said, the course can be difficult off the tee due to the length of the course and the trouble looming around every corner. It will take a terrific ball striking week to win at Sentosa Golf Club.
In his pre-tournament press conference last season, Phil Mickelson echoed many of the same sentiments.
“To play Sentosa effectively, you’re going to have a lot of shots from 160 to 210, a lot of full 6-, 7-, 8-iron shots, and you need to hit those really well and you need to drive the ball well.”
Golfers who excel from tee to green and can dial in their longer irons will have a massive advantage this week.
Stat Leaders at LIV Golf Adelaide:
Fairways Hit
1.) Louis Oosthuizen
2.) Anirban Lahiri
3.) Jon Rahm
4.) Brendan Steele
5.) Cameron Tringale
Greens in Regulation
1.) Brooks Koepka
2.) Brendan Steele
3.) Dean Burmester
4.) Cameron Tringale
5.) Anirban Lahiri
Birdies Made
1.) Brendan Steele
2.) Dean Burmester
3.) Thomas Pieters
4.) Patrick Reed
5.) Carlos Ortiz
LIV Golf Individual Standings:
1.) Joaquin Niemann
2.) Jon Rahm
3.) Dean Burmester
4.) Louis Oosthuizen
5.) Abraham Ancer
LIV Golf Team Standings:
1.) Crushers
2.) Legion XIII
3.) Torque
4.) Stinger GC
5.) Ripper GC
LIV Golf Singapore Picks
Sergio Garcia +3000 (DraftKings)
Sergio Garcia is no stranger to Sentosa Golf Club. The Spaniard won the Singapore Open in 2018 by five strokes and lost in a playoff at LIV Singapore last year to scorching hot Talor Gooch. Looking at the course setup, it’s no surprise that a player like Sergio has played incredible golf here. He’s long off the tee and is one of the better long iron players in the world when he’s in form. Garcia is also statistically a much better putter on Bermudagrass than he is on other putting surfaces. He’s putt extremely well on Sentosa’s incredibly pure green complexes.
This season, Garcia has two runner-up finishes, both of them being playoff losses. Both El Camaleon and Doral are courses he’s had success at in his career. The Spaniard is a player who plays well at his tracks, and Sentosa is one of them. I believe Sergio will get himself in the mix this week. Hopefully the third time is a charm in Singapore.
Paul Casey +3300 (FanDuel)
Paul Casey is in the midst of one of his best seasons in the five years or so. The results recently have been up and down, but he’s shown that when he’s on a golf course that suits his game, he’s amongst the contenders.
This season, Casey has finishes of T5 (LIV Las Vegas), T2 (LIV Hong Kong), and a 6th at the Singapore Classic on the DP World Tour. At his best, the Englishman is one of the best long iron players in the world, which makes him a strong fit for Sentosa. Despite being in poor form last season, he was able to fire a Sunday 63, which shows he can low here at the course.
It’s been three years since Casey has won a tournament (Omega Dubai Desert Classic in 2021), but he’s been one of the top players on LIV this season and I think he can get it done at some point this season.
Mito Pereira +5000 (Bet365)
Since Mito Pereira’s unfortunate demise at the 2022 PGA Championship, he’s been extremely inconsistent. However, over the past few months, the Chilean has played well on the International Series as well as his most recent LIV start. Mito finished 8th at LIV Adelaide, which was his best LIV finish this season.
Last year, Pereira finished 5th at LIV Singapore, shooting fantastic rounds of 67-66-66. It makes sense why Mito would like Sentosa, as preeminent ball strikers tend to rise to the challenge of the golf course. He’s a great long iron player who is long and straight off the tee.
Mito has some experience playing in Asia and is one of the most talented players on LIV who’s yet to get in the winner’s circle. I have questions about whether or not he can come through once in contention, but if he gets there, I’m happy to roll the dice.
Andy Ogletree +15000 (DraftKings)
Andy Ogletree is a player I expected to have a strong 2024 but struggled early in his first full season on LIV. After failing to crack the top-25 in any LIV event this year, the former U.S. Amateur champion finally figured things out, finished in a tie for 3rd at LIV Adelaide.
Ogletree should be incredible comfortable playing in Singapore. He won the International Series Qatar last year and finished T3 at the International Series Singapore. The 26-year-old was arguably the best player on the Asian Tour in 2023 and has been fantastic in the continent over the past 18 months.
If Ogletree has indeed found form, he looks to be an amazing value at triple-digit odds.
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In Tampa, there is a golf course that boasts carts that do not work, a water range, and a group of players none of which have any chance to break 80. The course is overseen by a staff of crusty men who have succeeded at nothing in life but ending up at the worst-run course in America. However, this place is no failure. With several other local courses going out of business — and boasting outstanding greens — the place is booked full.
While I came for the great greens, I stayed to watch our resident instructor; a poor-tempered, method teacher who caters to the hopeless. At first, it was simply hilarious. However, after months of listening and watching, something clicked. I realized I had a front-row seat to the worst golf instructor in America.
Here are some of my key takeaways.
Method Teacher
It is widely accepted that there are three types of golf instructors: system teachers, non-system teachers, and method teachers. Method teachers prescribe the same antidote for each student based on a preamble which teachers can learn in a couple day certification.
Method teaching allows anyone to be certified. This process caters to the lowest caliber instructor, creating the illusion of competency. This empowers these underqualified instructors with the moniker of “certified” to prey on the innocent and uninformed.
The Cult of Stack and Jilt
The Stack and Tilt website proudly boasts, “A golfer swings his hands inward in the backswing as opposed to straight back to 1) create power, similar to a field goal kicker moving his leg in an arc and 2) to promote a swing that is in-to-out, which produces a draw (and eliminates a slice).”
Now, let me tell you something, there is this law of the universe which says “energy can either be created or destroyed,” so either these guys are defying physics or they have no idea what they are taking about. Further, the idea that the first move of the backswing determines impact is conjecture with a splash of utter fantasy.
These are the pontifications of a method — a set of prescriptions applied to everyone with the hope of some success through the placebo effect. It is one thing for a naive student to believe, for a golf instructor to drink and then dispel this Kool-Aid is malpractice.
Fooled by Randomness
In flipping a coin, or even a March Madness bet, there is a 50-50 chance of success. In golf, especially for new players, results are asymmetric. Simply put: Anything can happen. The problem is that when bad instructors work with high handicappers, each and every shot gets its own diagnosis and prescription. Soon the student is overwhelmed.
Now here’s the sinister thing: The overwhelming information is by design. In this case, the coach is not trying to make you better, they are trying to make you reliant on them for information. A quasi Stockholm syndrome of codependency.
Practice
One of the most important scientists of the 20th century was Ivan Pavlov. As you might recall, he found that animals, including humans, could be conditioned into biological responses. In golf, the idea of practice has made millions of hackers salivate that they are one lesson or practice session from “the secret.”
Sunk Cost
The idea for the worst golf instructor is to create control and dependency so that clients ignore the sunk cost of not getting better. Instead, they are held hostage by the idea that they are one lesson or tip away from unlocking their potential.
Cliches
Cliches have the effect of terminating thoughts. However, they are the weapon of choice for this instructor. Add some hyperbole and students actually get no information. As a result, these players couldn’t play golf. When they did, they had no real scheme. With no idea what they are doing, they would descend into a spiral of no idea what to do, bad results, lower confidence, and running back to the lesson tee from more cliches.
The fact is that poor instruction is about conditioning players to become reliant members of your cult. To take away autonomy. To use practice as a form of control. To sell more golf lessons not by making people better but through the guise that without the teacher, the student can never reach their full potential. All under the umbrella of being “certified” (in a 2-day course!) and a melee of cliches.
This of course is not just happening at my muni but is a systemic problem around the country and around the world, the consequences of which are giving people a great reason to stop playing golf. But hey, at least it’s selling a lot of golf balls…
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The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.
TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.
Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.
However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.
Past Winners at TPC Louisiana
- 2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
- 2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
- 2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
- 2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
- 2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
- 2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)
2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks
Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)
Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.
This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.
McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.
Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)
Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.
Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.
Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)
Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.
NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.
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myron miller
Feb 26, 2020 at 2:09 pm
I disagree with his idea of a birdie hole. To me, a birdie hole is one that I can reasonably expect if i hit the ball decently have a reasonable chance of birdie. Hell, there are times that I’ve hit miraculus shots that went totally unrealistic distances and hit near the hole eventually for a birdie, where normally I have no chance of getting anywhere near a birdie. My normal chances on some holes, is slightly greater than 0 say 1% (1 in 10,000 or less. But a hole where I can if i do everything ok, have a realistic putt (within 20 feet) at a birdie to me is a birdiable hole (birdie hole). I approach the hole with the idea that I can birdie the hole if I hit each shot reasonably and can reach the green or very close (within 20 yards) in regulation. Those holes that I have zero chance of reaching in regulation (like a par 3 of 200+ yards or a 575 yard par 5.
His idea of any shot that “keeps you in the game” isn’t bad is unclear. What does this actually mean. say I’m on a 400 yard par 4. If I hit the ball only 100 yards off the tee am I still in the game? It can be in the middle of the fairway but I have zero chance of making par and have to hope to make bogey by hitting the next 3+ shots well. More likely, I’ll make double bogey on this hole. Yet there have been a number of times where I was very happy with the way I hit the ball on the hole and only made the “dreaded double bogey”. Wind screaming at 25+ mph with gusts to 30-40mph and swirling, not in a consistent direction.
Joe
Feb 25, 2020 at 10:56 pm
This is something I need to keep in mind too. I’ve found that when I’ve thought positively, I’ve played better.
iutodd
Feb 25, 2020 at 4:13 pm
I really enjoy all your articles. This whole concept is something that I have to remind myself of a lot. I’m, oh, an 8-10 handicap and when I play as a single I’m usually the “better” player of whomever I get grouped up with. But that still means on average I’ll miss 9-11 greens a round and about half of my fairways! I try to keep high expectations – but I do have to manage those expectations when shots don’t do what I want them to do. I’m also very time constrained and barely/rarely warm up – in fact I don’t really even know what a proper “warm up” feels like. So I generally start off slow, then I play really well from holes 5-13, then I get tired or lose focus. This leaves out entirely the inclusion or exclusion of beer.
I played with what had to be a sub-3 handicapper or better late last year – I was mostly blown away by their focus. I play a lot as a single and often I end up making small talk with the twosome I get paired up with and I end up not focusing all that well and subsequently I don’t play that well. It’s also just hard to be that guy who grinds for 45 seconds over every 3 footer when the other two have beers in their hands. This guy, the low single handicapper, was playing his game and focusing on what he needed to do – it was really impressive to see right up close like that.
I’m not as good as he is – but I aspire to golf like he does. I think managing expectations is totally a part of that because it does break your focus and your confidence and make the game less fun.
Brandon
Feb 25, 2020 at 11:32 am
This is good advice except for the part about club selection. Why would you take more club because you are expecting to hit a bad shot? Seems like you are setting yourself up to fail before you even make the swing. I’d rather be short on most approach shots than long anyway.
Alex
Feb 25, 2020 at 3:48 pm
I dont think you understood the point. What he was saying is that the kid was choosing his club based on max yardage instead of a controlled shot. I.e., hitting a 7i you can take to 175 1 out of 10 shots, instead of taking a smooth 6i to hit the number with an avg shot. I dove down into the low single digits after going off this mentality, taking the stronger club and swinging at ~80% gives way better results than full swings with all clubs.