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Tour Rundown: Rahma-Lamma-Double-DingDong in Dubai | Ignorance is victory | Duncan’s debut W
All that is professional golf, has ended for 2019. No, the Parent-Child and other silly-season events don’t count. Not even that little get-together that somehow offers world ranking points, but is an unofficial event. In Dubai, Georgia and Florida, the finest golfers on the LPGA, Euro and PGA tours holed their final putts for the last year of this decade. So much happened in 2K19, including the arrival of Lee6, the major return of Tiger, the dominance of Brooks, and the awakening of Scott McCarron. Raise a toast at year-end gatherings to their entertainment of us all, and to the realization of their hopes and dreams. For now, allow us to run down the tours, one last time, before we hopefully meet again in 2020, with the clearest vision.
Rahma Lamma Double DingDong in Dubai
That’s waaaaay too much of an Animal House reference (and also gives away my age) but it sure is fun to say. Jon Rahm won his 3rd European Tour event of the season in unique fashion. Following earlier wins in the Open championships of Ireland and Spain, Rahm arrived in Dubai in a position to challenge for world supremacy. He did not disappoint.
Rahm seized control of the climactic event of the European Tour with 5 birdies in his first 7 holes. Then, golf took over and the Spaniard let Mike Lorenzo-Vera and Tommy Fleetwood back into the tournament. 4 bogies over the next 8 holes (offset by a 2 more birdies) and some heroics from the French and English, made this finish a nail-biter. Fleetwood sliced 5 strokes off par over his last 7 holes, including birdie at the watery 18th. Never a winner on tour, Lorenzo-Vera closed within one with 2 consecutive birdies, midway through the inward nine. Unable to make additional dents in par over the closing four holes, MLV finished alone in 3rd spot, 1 putt behind Fleetwood and 2 back of the champion.
With his victory at Dubai, Rahm matched previous Race leader Bernd Wiesberger for wins (3) on the season. He jumped two spots over the Austrian, into 1st spot on the season. Fleetwood also elevated his stature with his runner-up finish. The Englishman moved into 2nd place in the season-long Race, relegating Wiesberger to a 3rd position on the podium. Shane Lowry (Ireland) and Matthew Fitzpatrick (England) round out the top 5. The wins at Dubai will no doubt cause pundits across the globe to ask, when will Rahm step up in a major way. We, of course, won’t ask that question, as we hold ourselves to a higher standard. For certain, the Spaniard has improved every facet of his game, allowing himself to be considered in every event in which he competes.
Ignorance is victory at LPGA Tour Championship
Sei Young Kim thought she was up against Nelly Korda in the final round. She didn’t know that Charley Hull had stormed from way behind tor each 17-under par, the figure where SYK stood on the 72nd green. 25 feet from birdie, Kim needed two putts to reach a playoff with the Englishwoman. Her putt found the bottom of the cup, for what she thought was a 2-stroke victory. Never mind that it was only a 1-shot margin of triumph; Sei Young was the holder of the largest tournament check in the history of women’s golf. The CME Race To The Globe, the season-long points race, went to her countrywoman, Jin Young Ko. Ko was also the Rolex Player of the Year, and holder of 4 tournament titles in 2019, 1 more than Kim.
Most aficionados expected Nelly Korda to offer the greatest challenge to the 3rd-round leader, but Korda and Kim each struggled throughout the round. Each had three bogeys on the day, including silly 6s on the par-5 14th hole. Meanwhile, Hull and Danielle Kang were lighting the Tiburon golf club’s gold course on fire. Hull had 6 birdies on the day, including the final 3 holes, and the 5 of the final 7. Kang had 5 birdies on the opening nine holes, then nothing until the 17th hole, where she made an eagle 3. Her 65 moved her from 9th to a tie for 3rd, while Hull moved from 4th to solo 2nd. Korda’s final-hole birdie returned her to red figures for the 4th consecutive day, out of a tie for 4th with Brooke Henderson, into the 3rd-place tie with Kang.
Sea Island site for Duncan’s debut victory
The fall series on the PGA Tour is known to be the proving ground for the unheralded, or the formerly-heralded. Thus far in 2019, Joaquin Niemann, Sebastian MuÑoz, and Lanto Griffin notch inaugural wins. Cameron Champ and Kevin Na earned important victories in their respective resurgences. No one had made more of an impact than Brendon Todd, who had won his last two tournaments and was gunning for a 3rd consecutive at Sea Island. For a time on Sunday, it appeared that he might do just that. Sadly for him, an incredible, 11-round streak in the 60s came to an end. From Bermuda, through Mayakoba, and up to Sunday morning in Georgia, the UGeorgia alum had played the best golf of any golfer, all year long. On Sunday, Todd came undone, to the tune of 72, and wound up in 4th spot. Not bad, but not what he wanted.
What Tyler Duncan wanted, was to rebound from a Saturday 70. No one finds it easy to follow up a 61 with a similar round, but the Purdue alum was hoping for something a bit better than … 70. On Sunday, as Todd struggled and Webb Simpson moved into the lead, Duncan sneaked up on everyone. Simpson came home in the final pairing with 67, for a total of -19. He overcame a 14th-hole bogey with birdies at 15 and 16. Imagine his surprise upon learning that Duncan made birdie at 3 of his closing 4 holes, to also reach the prime minus 19. Into sudden victory did the pair enter, and on the 2nd go-round of the par-4 18th, Duncan made another birdie to shut the door on Simpson and stand atop the PGA Tour podium for the first time.
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Vincenzi’s 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson betting preview: International talent to shine
As anticipation mounts for the 2024 PGA Championship at Valhalla in a few weeks, the PGA Tour makes a pit stop in McKinney, Texas to play The CJ CUP Byron Nelson.
Last year was the third time TPC Craig Ranch hosted the Byron Nelson. Prior to 2021, the event was held at Trinity Forest Golf Club in Dallas.
TPC Craig Ranch is a 7,414-yard par-71 that features Bentgrass greens. The event historically plays relatively easy, and that has remained the case in the three editions at TPC Craig Ranch.
The course structure may provide some additional intrigue with the par-3 17th featuring a stadium setup called “Ranch 17” which is reminiscent of the 16th hole at TPC Scottsdale. The course also has both long and difficult par-4s mixed with drivable par-4s, which should create some exciting moments.
There are 156 golfers in the field this week, and many stars will be taking the week off to prepare for 2023’s second major championship in a few weeks and a “signature event” at Quail Hollow next week. Notable players in the field include Jordan Spieth, Jason Day, Sungjae Im, Stephan Jaeger, Tom Kim, Si Woo Kim, Min Woo Lee, Alex Noren, Adam Scott and Will Zalatoris.
Past Winners of the AT&T Byron Nelson
- 2023: Jason Day (-23 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2022: K.H. Lee (-26 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2021: K.H. Lee (-25 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2019: Sung Kang (-23)
- 2018: Aaron Wise (-23)
- 2017: Billy Horschel (-12)
- 2016: Sergio Garcia (-15)
- 2015: Steven Bowditch (-18)
Key Stats at TPC Craig Ranch
Let’s take a look at five key metrics for TPC Craig Ranch to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Approach remains the best measure of current form.
Hot iron play will be at a premium this week. Last year, Jason Day gained 6.4 strokes on approach, which was fourth in the field. In 2022, K.H. Lee was ninth in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining 5.2 strokes. In his 2021 victory, he was second in the field and gained 8.3 strokes on the field in the category.
Strokes Gaines: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds
- Tom Hoge (+1.12)
- Keith Mitchell (+1.02)
- Henrik Norlander (+0.99)
- Ryan Moore (+0.98)
- Ben Martin (0.80)
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Fairways are wide at TPC Craig Ranch.
Distance will certainly be helpful, and there aren’t too many difficult holes on the course. Golfers who put themselves in position off of the tee this week should have a sizable advantage.
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Over Past 24 Rounds
- Peter Kuest (+0.93)
- Kevin Daugherty (+0.91)
- Alejandro Tosti (+0.83)
- Keith Mitchell (+0.82)
- Kevin Tway (+0.74)
Birdie or Better %
There aren’t many hazards on the course, and all of the par-5s should be reachable in two for the majority of the players in the field. I am anticipating a birdie fest, and this statistic should be helpful in finding the birdie-makers.
Birdie or Better % Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Wesley Bryan (31%)
- Kelly Kraft (26.2%)
- Peter Kuest (25.9%)
- Matti Schmid (25.7%
- Jimmy Stanger (25.2%)
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
Many golfers on TOUR have some major putting surface variance in their statistics and prefer Bentgrass to other surfaces.
Bentgrass is common in Texas, and we often see golfers who play well in Texas continue to do so, finding a great feel around the greens.
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass) Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Maverick McNealy (+0.92)
- Aaron Baddeley (+0.87)
- Callum Tarren (+0.86)
- Harry Hall (+0.81)
- Nick Hardy (+0.69)
Course History
This statistic will tell us which players have performed the best at TPC Craig Ranch over the past three seasons.
Course History Over Past 12 Rounds:
- Jordan Spieth (+2.69)
- K.H. Lee (+2.59)
- Seamus Power (+1.84)
- Ryan Palmer (+1.76)
- Adam Scott (+1.72)
CJ CUP Byron Nelson Model Rankings
Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: OTT (24%), Birdie or Better % (18%), Course History (17%) and SG: Putting Bentgrass (16%).
- Alex Noren
- Adam Scott
- Keith Mitchell
- Si Woo Kim
- Stephen Jaeger
- Jordan Spieth
- Jhonnatan Vegas
- Nate Lashley
- Brice Garnett
- Tom Hoge
2024 CJ CUP Byron Nelson Picks
Byeong Hun An +3000 (DraftKings)
Byeong Hun put together an excellent performance at The Masters, finishing T16, which ties his best ever finish at a major championship (also T16 at 2019 U.S. Open). The South Korean gained 9.16 strokes from tee to green, which ranked 2nd in the field behind only the champion, Scottie Scheffler.
An’s next start at Harbour Town didn’t go as well (67th), but he still had a fantastic ball striking week. The 32-year-old bled strokes both around and on the greens, which was his eventual undoing. In his past three starts, An has gained significant strokes on the field both off the tee and on approach.
Benny had a strong start at last year’s Byron Nelson, finishing in a tie for 14th. With limited challenges on the course, he shouldn’t have to do much scrambling. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 17th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 17th in the field in birdie or better percentage. The putter is up and down per usual, but his ceiling putting weeks with his LAB Golf putter in 2024 are higher than they’ve been in past seasons.
An is starting to become my “white whale” of the PGA Tour, but I believe in his talent and TPC Craig Ranch is a course that should suit his excellent tee to green play.
Mackenzie Hughes +5500 (FanDuel)
Mackenzie Hughes is quietly putting together a very good season. He finished in a tie for 3rd at the Valspar Championship and followed that up with a T14 at the Texas Children’s Houston Open.
In his past 36 rounds in Texas, the Canadian ranks 5th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total. Last year, he finished in a tie for 14th at this event and gained strokes putting and off the tee. Mackenzie played well that week despite being in extremely poor form. He missed two cuts in a row prior to the event, and four consecutive cuts immediately after. His irons were off that week, but in 2024, we’ve seen an improvement in Hughes’ approach game. He now comes to the event playing some steady golf. He’s gained strokes on approach in four of his past five events and is hitting the ball very well from tee to green.
Hughes has two victories on the PGA Tour, both coming in relatively low-scoring affairs (-17 in each). He will need to go a bit deeper to win the CJ Cup Byron Nelson but has the type of putter that can keep pace in a birdie barrage.
Seamus Power +7000 (FanDuel)
After struggling over the past few seasons with injuries, Seamus Power seems as if he is rounding back into the form that made him a really consistent player on the PGA Tour.
Power finished T12 in his most recent start at the RBC Heritage, which is encouraging considering it was a “signature event” with a very strong field. For the week, the Irishman gained 4.4 strokes on approach and 2.8 strokes putting, which is the combination he’s used in the past to contend on Tour.
In his three trips to TPC Craig Ranch, Power is yet to finish outside of the top-20, with his best finish being a T9 in 2019. He ranks 4th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course. The 37-year-old thrives on easy tracks and has won in 2021 (Barbasol Championship) and 2022 (Butterfield Bermuda) on easier layouts with weaker fields.
Power has the game to go extremely low and I believe he can get back in the winner’s circle for the third time in four years.
Chan Kim +10000 (FanDuel)
Chan Kim has been striking the ball beautifully this season and is a proven winner with two wins on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2023 as well as eight career Japan Tour wins.
At last week’s Zurich Classic, Kim and his partner Doug Ghim finished in a tie for 28th. Prior to that, the South Korean T14 at the Valero Texas Open and T6 at the Corales Puntacana Championship. His success this season in Texas as well as he propensity to play his best golf on the PGA Tour’s easier courses make him and ideal fit for TPC Craig Ranch.
2024 has given plenty of longshot winners on the PGA Tour, and with a birdie fest like this, I believe there’s a strong chance we get another this week in McKinney, Texas.
Alejandro Tosti +10000 (FanDuel)
Alejandro Tosti is one of the most polarizing players on the PGA Tour thus far in the 2024 season. His antics can rub many the wrong way, but he’s shown on a few occasions that he has what it takes to compete in Tour events.
This season, Tosti has been elite off the tee. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 2nd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. The Argentine hits it long and straight, which works at any course on earth. He got a taste of contention a few starts ago at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, finishing in a tie for 2nd place.
Tosti had a fantastic year in 2023 on the Korn Ferry Tour, where going low is a prerequisite to success. If this turns to a shootout, which it likely will, the 27-year-old has the ability to set the pace. Tosti will look to become the second Argentine to win in Texas in the past two seasons after Emiliano Grillo emerged victorious at last year’s Charles Schwab Challenge.
C.T. Pan +15000 (FanDuel)
Outside of a T3 at the Mexico Open, C.T. Pan doesn’t have strong results this season in terms of finishes. However, over his past two starts, Pan’s iron play has come alive. At The Players, he gained 6.6 strokes on approach. At the Valero Texas Open, he gained 3.7. At last week’s Zurich Classic, Pan and his partner Kevin Yu finished T28. For a player who can get extremely hot with his scoring clubs, I believe he’s playing better than the results have shown over the past month or so.
Last season, Pan finished 4th at TPC Craig Ranch and was spectacular across all the major stat categories. In his past 36 qualifying rounds, he ranks 16th in Strokes Gained: Total in Texas.
Pan has won on the PGA Tour at the RBC Heritage and is always a player that I believe has what it takes to win on a Sunday if he finds himself in contention.
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Morning 9: McIlroy, Lowry win Zurich | Green repeats on LPGA | Steele victorious down under
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Morning 9: 58 on the Korn Ferry Tour | Rory on possible return to policy board
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