News
Morning 9: What Tiger thinks about over the ball | Driver testing overdue? | Bermuda courses focused on relief
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By Ben Alberstadt ([email protected]; @benalberstadt on Instagram)
September 6, 2019 Good Friday morning, golf fans
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1 Round 1 from Green Eagle
EuropeanTour.com report…”Paul Casey powered his way to the top of the leaderboard following a first round 66 at the Porsche European Open.”
At the time of this writing, Casey trails Robert Macintyre by one stroke, having carded a second-round 73.
2. Driver testing overdue
Golfweek’s David Dusek…“The old protocol involved the USGA randomly testing the Characteristic Time (CT) of drivers collected from tour vans at various times throughout the year, at the PGA Tour’s request. The higher a driver’s CT, the greater its trampoline effect, which in turn boosts distance. The USGA and R&A’s cap on CT is 239 milliseconds, but clubs can exceed that number because there is a manufacturing tolerance of 18 milliseconds allowed by the game’s governing bodies. So, a driver with a CT of 246 can be used in a tournament, but one with a CT over 257 is said to be non-conforming.”
3. Courses rally for hurricane damage
Golfweek’s Jason Lusk…”In the devastating wake of Hurricane Dorian, the operators of the two highest-ranked golf courses in the Bahamas are focused on relief efforts and supporting the basic needs of people on the ground. There will be plenty of time to assess the golf courses later, they said.”
4. Secret weapon?
John Huggan on what could fell the Americans at the Walker Cup…
“A couple of weeks after an unexpected heatwave blistered the nation, an autumnal cool has descended from the north just in time for the 47th Walker Cup at Royal Liverpool. More importantly, a bit of a “hoolie” (strong wind) over the last few days has given the United States side a taste of the conditions that have carried Great Britain & Ireland squads to five wins in the last six matches on this side of the Atlantic. It was so bad on Wednesday that the visitors played only six holes in the 50 mile-per-hour gales before retiring to the clubhouse.”
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5. Haley’s GoFundMe
Golfweek’s Forecaddie…Thanks to a $6,190 donation from a group of riders known as “The Peloton XXL Tribe,” Haley Moore’s gofundme page has surpassed its $30,000 goal. For this, the Forecaddie tips his cap to a golf community that rallied for all the right reasons.
6. DJ’s knee surgery
AP report…”Dustin Johnson had arthroscopic surgery Thursday to repair cartilage damage in his left knee and is expected to return this fall.”
7. What Tiger thinks about over the ball
Peter Morrice for Golf Digest...
“To hear Tiger’s pre-shot thinking-his club selection, his shot choice, his constant monitoring of conditions-is one of the fascinating segments in “Episode 3: My Iron Play.” Here’s Tiger on one particular shot: “It’s 206 right now and about 180ish to the front. Wind’s coming off the left, but it’s bouncing back and forth. As of right now, it’s a 6-iron. Now we just got a puff of wind, more downish, so I realize if I hit a full 6-iron, it’s out of here. Ten seconds ago, it was more like I had to lean on a 6-iron to get it there. So trying to get a feel for that, and understand that I may have to use one of the two shots. I’ve got to make that decision once I get up to the golf ball. I’ve got a feel for both shots, and right now [the wind] is down, so I’m going to take something off of this. It’s still down so I’m going to go with it.”
8. Jack: Tiger won’t pick himself
Golfweek’s Adam Woodard…”If he qualified 11 or 12, yeah I think he should pick himself,” said Nicklaus. Woods finished 13th behind Tony Finau, Gary Woodland, Rickie Fowler and Patrick Reed. The eight players who automatically qualified: Brooks Koepka, Justin Thomas, Dustin Johnson, Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele, Webb Simpson, Matt Kuchar and Bryson DeChambeau.”
“I don’t think Tiger will pick himself because he probably thinks it’s in the fair play of the game that the guys ahead of him should play,” Nicklaus explained. “If someone else was a captain other than Tiger, he’d pick Tiger in a heartbeat. I’d always want Tiger on my team.”
Full piece.
9. 2019-2020 rookies to watch
Zephyr Melton at PGATour.com…Here are the top-10 PGA TOUR rookies to watch, after successfully earning 2019-20 TOUR membership via the 2019 Korn Ferry Tour.
1. Viktor Hovland. The star-in-the-making out of Oklahoma State was one of the top storylines this summer after turning professional. Along with Matthew Wolff and Collin Morikawa, Hovland became a household name over the last six weeks of the PGA TOUR Regular Season, highlighted by a fourth-place finish at the Wyndham Championship. Unlike his compadres, Hovland failed to earn a TOUR card prior to the FedExCup Playoffs and proceeded to the Korn Ferry Tour Finals. It didn’t take the 21-year-old long to join Wolff and Morikawa, however, as he finished T11-T2 in the first two Finals events to solidify his TOUR status.
2. Scottie Scheffler. There was no player on the Korn Ferry Tour who played as high-level, consistent golf in 2019 as Scheffler. The University of Texas graduate racked up two wins, 10 top-10s and missed just four cuts over the course of the season. He also led the Tour in birdies and scoring average during his rookie campaign, taking the No. 1 spot on both The 25 and The Finals 25 to earn fully exempt status on TOUR next season.
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News
Vincenzi’s 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson betting preview: International talent to shine
As anticipation mounts for the 2024 PGA Championship at Valhalla in a few weeks, the PGA Tour makes a pit stop in McKinney, Texas to play The CJ CUP Byron Nelson.
Last year was the third time TPC Craig Ranch hosted the Byron Nelson. Prior to 2021, the event was held at Trinity Forest Golf Club in Dallas.
TPC Craig Ranch is a 7,414-yard par-71 that features Bentgrass greens. The event historically plays relatively easy, and that has remained the case in the three editions at TPC Craig Ranch.
The course structure may provide some additional intrigue with the par-3 17th featuring a stadium setup called “Ranch 17” which is reminiscent of the 16th hole at TPC Scottsdale. The course also has both long and difficult par-4s mixed with drivable par-4s, which should create some exciting moments.
There are 156 golfers in the field this week, and many stars will be taking the week off to prepare for 2023’s second major championship in a few weeks and a “signature event” at Quail Hollow next week. Notable players in the field include Jordan Spieth, Jason Day, Sungjae Im, Stephan Jaeger, Tom Kim, Si Woo Kim, Min Woo Lee, Alex Noren, Adam Scott and Will Zalatoris.
Past Winners of the AT&T Byron Nelson
- 2023: Jason Day (-23 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2022: K.H. Lee (-26 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2021: K.H. Lee (-25 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2019: Sung Kang (-23)
- 2018: Aaron Wise (-23)
- 2017: Billy Horschel (-12)
- 2016: Sergio Garcia (-15)
- 2015: Steven Bowditch (-18)
Key Stats at TPC Craig Ranch
Let’s take a look at five key metrics for TPC Craig Ranch to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Approach remains the best measure of current form.
Hot iron play will be at a premium this week. Last year, Jason Day gained 6.4 strokes on approach, which was fourth in the field. In 2022, K.H. Lee was ninth in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining 5.2 strokes. In his 2021 victory, he was second in the field and gained 8.3 strokes on the field in the category.
Strokes Gaines: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds
- Tom Hoge (+1.12)
- Keith Mitchell (+1.02)
- Henrik Norlander (+0.99)
- Ryan Moore (+0.98)
- Ben Martin (0.80)
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Fairways are wide at TPC Craig Ranch.
Distance will certainly be helpful, and there aren’t too many difficult holes on the course. Golfers who put themselves in position off of the tee this week should have a sizable advantage.
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Over Past 24 Rounds
- Peter Kuest (+0.93)
- Kevin Daugherty (+0.91)
- Alejandro Tosti (+0.83)
- Keith Mitchell (+0.82)
- Kevin Tway (+0.74)
Birdie or Better %
There aren’t many hazards on the course, and all of the par-5s should be reachable in two for the majority of the players in the field. I am anticipating a birdie fest, and this statistic should be helpful in finding the birdie-makers.
Birdie or Better % Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Wesley Bryan (31%)
- Kelly Kraft (26.2%)
- Peter Kuest (25.9%)
- Matti Schmid (25.7%
- Jimmy Stanger (25.2%)
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
Many golfers on TOUR have some major putting surface variance in their statistics and prefer Bentgrass to other surfaces.
Bentgrass is common in Texas, and we often see golfers who play well in Texas continue to do so, finding a great feel around the greens.
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass) Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Maverick McNealy (+0.92)
- Aaron Baddeley (+0.87)
- Callum Tarren (+0.86)
- Harry Hall (+0.81)
- Nick Hardy (+0.69)
Course History
This statistic will tell us which players have performed the best at TPC Craig Ranch over the past three seasons.
Course History Over Past 12 Rounds:
- Jordan Spieth (+2.69)
- K.H. Lee (+2.59)
- Seamus Power (+1.84)
- Ryan Palmer (+1.76)
- Adam Scott (+1.72)
CJ CUP Byron Nelson Model Rankings
Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: OTT (24%), Birdie or Better % (18%), Course History (17%) and SG: Putting Bentgrass (16%).
- Alex Noren
- Adam Scott
- Keith Mitchell
- Si Woo Kim
- Stephen Jaeger
- Jordan Spieth
- Jhonnatan Vegas
- Nate Lashley
- Brice Garnett
- Tom Hoge
2024 CJ CUP Byron Nelson Picks
Byeong Hun An +3000 (DraftKings)
Byeong Hun put together an excellent performance at The Masters, finishing T16, which ties his best ever finish at a major championship (also T16 at 2019 U.S. Open). The South Korean gained 9.16 strokes from tee to green, which ranked 2nd in the field behind only the champion, Scottie Scheffler.
An’s next start at Harbour Town didn’t go as well (67th), but he still had a fantastic ball striking week. The 32-year-old bled strokes both around and on the greens, which was his eventual undoing. In his past three starts, An has gained significant strokes on the field both off the tee and on approach.
Benny had a strong start at last year’s Byron Nelson, finishing in a tie for 14th. With limited challenges on the course, he shouldn’t have to do much scrambling. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 17th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 17th in the field in birdie or better percentage. The putter is up and down per usual, but his ceiling putting weeks with his LAB Golf putter in 2024 are higher than they’ve been in past seasons.
An is starting to become my “white whale” of the PGA Tour, but I believe in his talent and TPC Craig Ranch is a course that should suit his excellent tee to green play.
Mackenzie Hughes +5500 (FanDuel)
Mackenzie Hughes is quietly putting together a very good season. He finished in a tie for 3rd at the Valspar Championship and followed that up with a T14 at the Texas Children’s Houston Open.
In his past 36 rounds in Texas, the Canadian ranks 5th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total. Last year, he finished in a tie for 14th at this event and gained strokes putting and off the tee. Mackenzie played well that week despite being in extremely poor form. He missed two cuts in a row prior to the event, and four consecutive cuts immediately after. His irons were off that week, but in 2024, we’ve seen an improvement in Hughes’ approach game. He now comes to the event playing some steady golf. He’s gained strokes on approach in four of his past five events and is hitting the ball very well from tee to green.
Hughes has two victories on the PGA Tour, both coming in relatively low-scoring affairs (-17 in each). He will need to go a bit deeper to win the CJ Cup Byron Nelson but has the type of putter that can keep pace in a birdie barrage.
Seamus Power +7000 (FanDuel)
After struggling over the past few seasons with injuries, Seamus Power seems as if he is rounding back into the form that made him a really consistent player on the PGA Tour.
Power finished T12 in his most recent start at the RBC Heritage, which is encouraging considering it was a “signature event” with a very strong field. For the week, the Irishman gained 4.4 strokes on approach and 2.8 strokes putting, which is the combination he’s used in the past to contend on Tour.
In his three trips to TPC Craig Ranch, Power is yet to finish outside of the top-20, with his best finish being a T9 in 2019. He ranks 4th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course. The 37-year-old thrives on easy tracks and has won in 2021 (Barbasol Championship) and 2022 (Butterfield Bermuda) on easier layouts with weaker fields.
Power has the game to go extremely low and I believe he can get back in the winner’s circle for the third time in four years.
Chan Kim +10000 (FanDuel)
Chan Kim has been striking the ball beautifully this season and is a proven winner with two wins on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2023 as well as eight career Japan Tour wins.
At last week’s Zurich Classic, Kim and his partner Doug Ghim finished in a tie for 28th. Prior to that, the South Korean T14 at the Valero Texas Open and T6 at the Corales Puntacana Championship. His success this season in Texas as well as he propensity to play his best golf on the PGA Tour’s easier courses make him and ideal fit for TPC Craig Ranch.
2024 has given plenty of longshot winners on the PGA Tour, and with a birdie fest like this, I believe there’s a strong chance we get another this week in McKinney, Texas.
Alejandro Tosti +10000 (FanDuel)
Alejandro Tosti is one of the most polarizing players on the PGA Tour thus far in the 2024 season. His antics can rub many the wrong way, but he’s shown on a few occasions that he has what it takes to compete in Tour events.
This season, Tosti has been elite off the tee. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 2nd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. The Argentine hits it long and straight, which works at any course on earth. He got a taste of contention a few starts ago at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, finishing in a tie for 2nd place.
Tosti had a fantastic year in 2023 on the Korn Ferry Tour, where going low is a prerequisite to success. If this turns to a shootout, which it likely will, the 27-year-old has the ability to set the pace. Tosti will look to become the second Argentine to win in Texas in the past two seasons after Emiliano Grillo emerged victorious at last year’s Charles Schwab Challenge.
C.T. Pan +15000 (FanDuel)
Outside of a T3 at the Mexico Open, C.T. Pan doesn’t have strong results this season in terms of finishes. However, over his past two starts, Pan’s iron play has come alive. At The Players, he gained 6.6 strokes on approach. At the Valero Texas Open, he gained 3.7. At last week’s Zurich Classic, Pan and his partner Kevin Yu finished T28. For a player who can get extremely hot with his scoring clubs, I believe he’s playing better than the results have shown over the past month or so.
Last season, Pan finished 4th at TPC Craig Ranch and was spectacular across all the major stat categories. In his past 36 qualifying rounds, he ranks 16th in Strokes Gained: Total in Texas.
Pan has won on the PGA Tour at the RBC Heritage and is always a player that I believe has what it takes to win on a Sunday if he finds himself in contention.
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Morning 9: McIlroy, Lowry win Zurich | Green repeats on LPGA | Steele victorious down under
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Morning 9: 58 on the Korn Ferry Tour | Rory on possible return to policy board
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