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Tour Rundown: Unlikely Shibuno, the Postman, ZB, and more
Major championship season came to an end this week with the Women’s Open championship. Many PGA Tour golfers exhaled a sigh of relief (they kept their cards for 2019-20) or inhaled a deep breath of recommitment (they lost their tour cards.) The European and Champions tours are off on vacation for another week or two, so you get a look at tours you don’t normally see in Tour Rundown. We’ll even toss in an amateur event, which we almost never do. This one is the toughest amateur event in the world to win. You’ll see why. Time for Tour Rundown on Monday, August 5th, 2019.
Wyndham Championship sees Postman cap the regular season with a delivery
The list is long for golfers who kept their card, lost their card, got into the FedEx Cup playoffs, just missed the FedEx Cup playoffs. This column is not about them. It is about J.T. Poston and his first PGA Tour win. Poston’s Twitter handle is JT_ThePostman. On Sunday in Greensboro, he delivered every bit of the mail. Poston began the final round 3 shots in arrears of leader Ben An. An was in control most of the day, until stumbling to an unexpected bogey at the par-five 15th hole. He bounced back immediately with birdie at the 16th, but needed one more birdie coming home to catch Poston. Bogey at the last dropped An to 3rd place. Webb Simpson, a local lad and former winner of this event, began the day in a funk. Bogeys at 2 of the first 3 holes dropped him off the pace. Simpson rebounded with 7 birdies the rest of the way, to ease past An, into 2nd spot at -21. It was Poston’s start that made the difference. 3 birdies and an eagle led to an outbound 30. 3 birdies against 0 bogeys coming home, gave him 32 for 62 on the day. He sweated the final pairings, but no putts would drop against him. The win elevated Poston from 83rd to 27th, almost a guarantee through to the Tour Championship.
Women’s Open Championship to the unlikely Shibuno
Bullet-Point powers, activate! Five things that Hinako Shibuno was NOT supposed to do this week:
- Play a heathland course. Shibuno arrived in England, expecting links conditions;
- Play the back nine with 18 birdies and 0 bogeys the entire week (yet she did!);
- Post a score in the 60s each of the four tournament days (only one in the field to do so);
- Make a double bogey on her 3rd Sunday hole and not vanish (she did, yet she didn’t);
- Win by 1 stroke with a birdie on the 72nd hole. Oh, she most certainly did!
Shibuno was no stranger to winning, doing so twice on the Japan LPGA Tour. This was different. It was the LPGA and Ladies European Tour combined. It was a major championship. It was a world stage. And with one massive week, she catapulted herself into the eyes of Japan’s Olympic selection committee. She earned an LPGA card, and she most likely jumped into the world’s top 40 golfers. Snap. A moment, if you will, for Lizette Salas. The American did all that she could have done to win this tournament. She posted 65 with 8 birdies. Wonks might say that her bogey at the par-3 6th hole kept her from a playoff, but that isn’t so. As with Stenson-Mickelson in 2016, 2 deserving golfers were left with only 1 trophy.
Ellie Mae Classic to refocused Blair on Korn Ferry Tour
Zac Blair makes no secret about his love of classic golf course architecture. He shares his thought on the subject on discussion boards, and is in the process of building The Buck Club in Utah, an homage to the great golf holes of yesteryear. Along the line, the love took over from the task, and Blair’s game went a-wandering. In 2019, he rededicated himself to his game, and the work paid off on Sunday. Blair played a mistake-free round at tricky TPC Stonebrae, and won the Ellie Mae Classic by one shot over a surging Brandon Crick. Both Crick and Maverick McNealy had viable shots at the title, but they could not avoid the big number. Crick had a bogey and a double on his outbound nine. McNealy, who led much of the day, had 2 bogies and 1 double on his card. Blair’s error-free golf on Sunday forced the field to take chances. McNealy needed birdie at the last to tie, but made bogey instead. Crick birdied 4 of his final 5 holes, in an effort to overtake the winner. He came up one chirp shy of extra time. Blair moved to 31st on the year-long points chase, positioning himself well for a return to PGA Tour with a top-five finish next week in Portland.
1932byBateman to Canada’s Taylor Pendrith on Mackenzie Tour
Taylor Pendrith had amassed a pile of points without a win on the PGA Tour Canada season. He found himself in 5th position, the final one to earn a pass to the Korn Ferry Tour for season performance. On Sunday, Pendrith earned a victory for himself, and pride for Canada, with a 3-shot victory over the USA’s Lorens Chan. Pendrith began the day in 10th place, but opened with a 4-under 32 to enter the fray. He returned 3 more birdies on the inward half, setting the stage for the 17th hole. On the par five, the long-hitting, Kent State alum made eagle 3 to seize control of the tournament. Chan matched Pendrith’s back-nine 30, but needed much more to contend. 3rd round leader Will Gordon, he who opened 64-64, made double bogey on the hole that Pendrith eagled. For Gordon, that 4-stroke differential was the difference between T3 and playoff. With the win, Pendrith switched spots on the Order of Merit with Dawson Armstrong. Four events remain on the 2019 tour schedule.
Western Amateur heads north of the border with NHL’s Garrett Rank
It is an unlikely story, but one that makes complete sense. What better way to stay fit, than to skate around a rink, all night long, with no one to hit you? Ontario’s Garrett Rank does just that, as an NHL referee. During the off season, he can be found in the world’s best amateur golf events. Rank had finished runner-up in the USGA Mid-Amateur championship (2012) and had won his own country’s mid-am on multiple occasions. On Saturday, Rank won his first major amateur event in appropriate fashion. The Western Amateur demands 4 rounds of stroke-play qualifying, then eliminates all but the top 16 golfers. Those 16 play four rounds of match play to determine a champion. Rank qualified in the 5th spot, at 6-under 274. Davis Thompson won the medal at -13, but was defeated in the 2nd round of match play. It was Daniel Wetterich who raced through the upper bracket of match play. He won on the 17th hole twice, and the 16th hole once, to reach the final. Along the way, Wetterich defeated top junior Ricky Castillo, a probable Walker Cup selection, in the semifinal. In the lower bracket, Rank was extended in every match. He won on the 18th green in round 1, then the 17th green during each of the subsequent rounds. In the final match, Rank won 7 of the 16 contested holes, defeating Wetterich by 3 & 2. Rank entered the week listed #66 in the world. It’s likely that his own ranking will improve a good deal when the WAGR updates its rankings on Monday.
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Vincenzi’s 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson betting preview: International talent to shine
As anticipation mounts for the 2024 PGA Championship at Valhalla in a few weeks, the PGA Tour makes a pit stop in McKinney, Texas to play The CJ CUP Byron Nelson.
Last year was the third time TPC Craig Ranch hosted the Byron Nelson. Prior to 2021, the event was held at Trinity Forest Golf Club in Dallas.
TPC Craig Ranch is a 7,414-yard par-71 that features Bentgrass greens. The event historically plays relatively easy, and that has remained the case in the three editions at TPC Craig Ranch.
The course structure may provide some additional intrigue with the par-3 17th featuring a stadium setup called “Ranch 17” which is reminiscent of the 16th hole at TPC Scottsdale. The course also has both long and difficult par-4s mixed with drivable par-4s, which should create some exciting moments.
There are 156 golfers in the field this week, and many stars will be taking the week off to prepare for 2023’s second major championship in a few weeks and a “signature event” at Quail Hollow next week. Notable players in the field include Jordan Spieth, Jason Day, Sungjae Im, Stephan Jaeger, Tom Kim, Si Woo Kim, Min Woo Lee, Alex Noren, Adam Scott and Will Zalatoris.
Past Winners of the AT&T Byron Nelson
- 2023: Jason Day (-23 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2022: K.H. Lee (-26 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2021: K.H. Lee (-25 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2019: Sung Kang (-23)
- 2018: Aaron Wise (-23)
- 2017: Billy Horschel (-12)
- 2016: Sergio Garcia (-15)
- 2015: Steven Bowditch (-18)
Key Stats at TPC Craig Ranch
Let’s take a look at five key metrics for TPC Craig Ranch to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Approach remains the best measure of current form.
Hot iron play will be at a premium this week. Last year, Jason Day gained 6.4 strokes on approach, which was fourth in the field. In 2022, K.H. Lee was ninth in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining 5.2 strokes. In his 2021 victory, he was second in the field and gained 8.3 strokes on the field in the category.
Strokes Gaines: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds
- Tom Hoge (+1.12)
- Keith Mitchell (+1.02)
- Henrik Norlander (+0.99)
- Ryan Moore (+0.98)
- Ben Martin (0.80)
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Fairways are wide at TPC Craig Ranch.
Distance will certainly be helpful, and there aren’t too many difficult holes on the course. Golfers who put themselves in position off of the tee this week should have a sizable advantage.
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Over Past 24 Rounds
- Peter Kuest (+0.93)
- Kevin Daugherty (+0.91)
- Alejandro Tosti (+0.83)
- Keith Mitchell (+0.82)
- Kevin Tway (+0.74)
Birdie or Better %
There aren’t many hazards on the course, and all of the par-5s should be reachable in two for the majority of the players in the field. I am anticipating a birdie fest, and this statistic should be helpful in finding the birdie-makers.
Birdie or Better % Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Wesley Bryan (31%)
- Kelly Kraft (26.2%)
- Peter Kuest (25.9%)
- Matti Schmid (25.7%
- Jimmy Stanger (25.2%)
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
Many golfers on TOUR have some major putting surface variance in their statistics and prefer Bentgrass to other surfaces.
Bentgrass is common in Texas, and we often see golfers who play well in Texas continue to do so, finding a great feel around the greens.
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass) Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Maverick McNealy (+0.92)
- Aaron Baddeley (+0.87)
- Callum Tarren (+0.86)
- Harry Hall (+0.81)
- Nick Hardy (+0.69)
Course History
This statistic will tell us which players have performed the best at TPC Craig Ranch over the past three seasons.
Course History Over Past 12 Rounds:
- Jordan Spieth (+2.69)
- K.H. Lee (+2.59)
- Seamus Power (+1.84)
- Ryan Palmer (+1.76)
- Adam Scott (+1.72)
CJ CUP Byron Nelson Model Rankings
Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: OTT (24%), Birdie or Better % (18%), Course History (17%) and SG: Putting Bentgrass (16%).
- Alex Noren
- Adam Scott
- Keith Mitchell
- Si Woo Kim
- Stephen Jaeger
- Jordan Spieth
- Jhonnatan Vegas
- Nate Lashley
- Brice Garnett
- Tom Hoge
2024 CJ CUP Byron Nelson Picks
Byeong Hun An +3000 (DraftKings)
Byeong Hun put together an excellent performance at The Masters, finishing T16, which ties his best ever finish at a major championship (also T16 at 2019 U.S. Open). The South Korean gained 9.16 strokes from tee to green, which ranked 2nd in the field behind only the champion, Scottie Scheffler.
An’s next start at Harbour Town didn’t go as well (67th), but he still had a fantastic ball striking week. The 32-year-old bled strokes both around and on the greens, which was his eventual undoing. In his past three starts, An has gained significant strokes on the field both off the tee and on approach.
Benny had a strong start at last year’s Byron Nelson, finishing in a tie for 14th. With limited challenges on the course, he shouldn’t have to do much scrambling. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 17th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 17th in the field in birdie or better percentage. The putter is up and down per usual, but his ceiling putting weeks with his LAB Golf putter in 2024 are higher than they’ve been in past seasons.
An is starting to become my “white whale” of the PGA Tour, but I believe in his talent and TPC Craig Ranch is a course that should suit his excellent tee to green play.
Mackenzie Hughes +5500 (FanDuel)
Mackenzie Hughes is quietly putting together a very good season. He finished in a tie for 3rd at the Valspar Championship and followed that up with a T14 at the Texas Children’s Houston Open.
In his past 36 rounds in Texas, the Canadian ranks 5th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total. Last year, he finished in a tie for 14th at this event and gained strokes putting and off the tee. Mackenzie played well that week despite being in extremely poor form. He missed two cuts in a row prior to the event, and four consecutive cuts immediately after. His irons were off that week, but in 2024, we’ve seen an improvement in Hughes’ approach game. He now comes to the event playing some steady golf. He’s gained strokes on approach in four of his past five events and is hitting the ball very well from tee to green.
Hughes has two victories on the PGA Tour, both coming in relatively low-scoring affairs (-17 in each). He will need to go a bit deeper to win the CJ Cup Byron Nelson but has the type of putter that can keep pace in a birdie barrage.
Seamus Power +7000 (FanDuel)
After struggling over the past few seasons with injuries, Seamus Power seems as if he is rounding back into the form that made him a really consistent player on the PGA Tour.
Power finished T12 in his most recent start at the RBC Heritage, which is encouraging considering it was a “signature event” with a very strong field. For the week, the Irishman gained 4.4 strokes on approach and 2.8 strokes putting, which is the combination he’s used in the past to contend on Tour.
In his three trips to TPC Craig Ranch, Power is yet to finish outside of the top-20, with his best finish being a T9 in 2019. He ranks 4th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course. The 37-year-old thrives on easy tracks and has won in 2021 (Barbasol Championship) and 2022 (Butterfield Bermuda) on easier layouts with weaker fields.
Power has the game to go extremely low and I believe he can get back in the winner’s circle for the third time in four years.
Chan Kim +10000 (FanDuel)
Chan Kim has been striking the ball beautifully this season and is a proven winner with two wins on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2023 as well as eight career Japan Tour wins.
At last week’s Zurich Classic, Kim and his partner Doug Ghim finished in a tie for 28th. Prior to that, the South Korean T14 at the Valero Texas Open and T6 at the Corales Puntacana Championship. His success this season in Texas as well as he propensity to play his best golf on the PGA Tour’s easier courses make him and ideal fit for TPC Craig Ranch.
2024 has given plenty of longshot winners on the PGA Tour, and with a birdie fest like this, I believe there’s a strong chance we get another this week in McKinney, Texas.
Alejandro Tosti +10000 (FanDuel)
Alejandro Tosti is one of the most polarizing players on the PGA Tour thus far in the 2024 season. His antics can rub many the wrong way, but he’s shown on a few occasions that he has what it takes to compete in Tour events.
This season, Tosti has been elite off the tee. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 2nd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. The Argentine hits it long and straight, which works at any course on earth. He got a taste of contention a few starts ago at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, finishing in a tie for 2nd place.
Tosti had a fantastic year in 2023 on the Korn Ferry Tour, where going low is a prerequisite to success. If this turns to a shootout, which it likely will, the 27-year-old has the ability to set the pace. Tosti will look to become the second Argentine to win in Texas in the past two seasons after Emiliano Grillo emerged victorious at last year’s Charles Schwab Challenge.
C.T. Pan +15000 (FanDuel)
Outside of a T3 at the Mexico Open, C.T. Pan doesn’t have strong results this season in terms of finishes. However, over his past two starts, Pan’s iron play has come alive. At The Players, he gained 6.6 strokes on approach. At the Valero Texas Open, he gained 3.7. At last week’s Zurich Classic, Pan and his partner Kevin Yu finished T28. For a player who can get extremely hot with his scoring clubs, I believe he’s playing better than the results have shown over the past month or so.
Last season, Pan finished 4th at TPC Craig Ranch and was spectacular across all the major stat categories. In his past 36 qualifying rounds, he ranks 16th in Strokes Gained: Total in Texas.
Pan has won on the PGA Tour at the RBC Heritage and is always a player that I believe has what it takes to win on a Sunday if he finds himself in contention.
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Morning 9: McIlroy, Lowry win Zurich | Green repeats on LPGA | Steele victorious down under
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Morning 9: 58 on the Korn Ferry Tour | Rory on possible return to policy board
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Caroline
Aug 5, 2019 at 10:25 pm
Hinako Shibuno maybe the sweetest winner ever on the LPGA tour…what a fantastic young lady…all you young ladies out there working hard to play professional golf…take a minute to watch the way Hinako Shibuno handles the spot light…not only a very good player but someone who shows how much joy this great sport can be.
Ronald Montesano
Aug 10, 2019 at 3:07 pm
Comment from DOUG: I saw the old list. Zac is now 10th and on his way back to the PGA Tour come September. Thanks, Doug.
rm
Doug
Aug 5, 2019 at 11:03 am
“Blair moved to 31st on the year-long points chase…”
The app takes a bit of time to update for the week (assuming you wrote some of this last evening?). He’s 10th now and has secured his spot in The 25, as all the twitter folks were saying. He was 31st going into the week.