Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: Is your driver the first “scoring club”?

Published

5 years ago

May 21, 2019

I was traveling Sunday and didn’t get to watch the end of the PGA Championship, so imagine my shock Monday morning when I read what had happened on that back nine. Like most everyone, I figured Brooks Koepka had his game and his emotions completely under control and Sunday’s finish would be pretty boring and anti-climactic. Man, were we wrong!!?

As I read the shot-by-shot, disaster-by-disaster account of what happened on those few holes, I have to admit my somewhat cynical self became engaged. I realize the conditions were tough, but it still boils down to the fact that Koepka nearly lost this PGA Championship because he couldn’t execute what I call “basic golf” – hitting fairways and greens – when it counted. And Dustin Johnson lost his ability to do the same just as he got within striking distance.

I’ve long been a critic of the way the game has come to be played at the highest levels; what we used to call “bomb and gouge” has become the norm at the professional tour level. These guys are big strong athletes, and they go at it harder than anyone ever did in “the old days”. Watch closely and you’ll see so many of them are on their toes or even off the ground at impact, especially with the driver. Call me old-fashioned, but I just don’t see how that can be the path to consistent shotmaking.

So, my curiosity then drove me to the year-to-date statistics on the PGA Tour website to dive into this a bit deeper. What I found was quite interesting, and I believe can be helpful to all of you readers as you think about how to lower your handicap this season. Follow me here, as I think there are some very helpful numbers from the PGA Tour.
I’ve long contended that golf is a game of ball control . . . let’s call it shotmaking. Your personal strength profile will determine whether you are a long hitter or not, and there’s probably not a lot you can do (or will do) to change that dramatically. But PGA Tour statistics indicate that accuracy, not distance, is the key to better scoring.

The Tour leader in driving accuracy is Jim Furyk, the only guy who is hitting more than 75% of the fairways. The Tour average is under 62%, or not even 2 out of 3. That means the typical round has the tour professional playing at least 4-5 approach shots from the rough. I’m going to come back to that in just a moment and explore the “cost” of those missed fairways.

The Tour leader in greens-in-regulation is Tiger Woods at 74%, almost 3-out-of-4 . . . but the Tour average is less than 66%, or just under 2-out-of-3. I believe enlightenment comes by breaking that GIR statistic down even further.
From the fairway, the Tour leader in GIR is Justin Thomas at 85% and the worst guy at 65%, three points better than the tour average for GIR overall. Hmmmmm. From the rough, however, the best guy on Tour is Taylor Gooch at 63.4%, which is not as good as the very last guy from the fairway.

But let’s dive even a bit deeper to better understand the importance of driving accuracy. Is it true these guys are so good from the rough that hitting fairways doesn’t matter? Not according to the numbers.

From the rough in the range of 125-150 yards – a wedge for most of these guys – the tour’s best hit it 25-27 feet from the hole and only 30 tour pros are averaging inside 30 feet from that distance. But from the fairway, 25 yards further back – 150-175 yards – the tour’s best hit it inside 21-23 feet, and 160 guys are getting closer than 30 feet on average. Even from 175-200 in the fairway, the best on tour hit it closer than the best on tour from the rough 50 yards closer.

So, what do you do with this information? I encourage any serious golfer to really analyze your own rounds to see the difference in your scoring on holes where you find the fairway versus those where you don’t. I feel certain you’ll find throttling back a bit with your driver and focusing more on finding the fairway, rather than trying to squeeze a few more yards of the tee will help you shoot lower scores.

If you have the inclination to see what more fairways can do to your own scores, here’s a little experiment for you. Get a buddy or two for a “research round” and play this game: When you miss a fairway, walk the ball straight over to the fairway, and then 15 yards back. So, you’ll hit every approach from the fairway, albeit somewhat further back – see what you shoot.

Next week I’m going to follow up this “enlightenment” with some tips and techniques that I feel certain will help you hit more fairways so you can take this to the bank this season.

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Terry Koehler

Terry Koehler is a fourth generation Texan and a graduate of Texas A&M University. Over his 40-year career in the golf industry, he has created over 100 putter designs, sets of irons and drivers, and in 2014, he put together the team that reintroduced the Ben Hogan brand to the golf equipment industry. Since the early 2000s, Terry has been a prolific writer, sharing his knowledge as “The Wedge Guy”. But his most compelling work is in the wedge category. Since he first patented his “Koehler Sole” in the early 1990s, he has been challenging “conventional wisdom” reflected in ‘tour design’ wedges. The performance of his wedge designs have stimulated other companies to move slightly more mass toward the top of the blade in their wedges, but none approach the dramatic design of his Edison Forged wedges, which have been robotically proven to significantly raise the bar for wedge performance. Terry serves as Chairman and Director of Innovation for Edison Golf – check it out at www.EdisonWedges.com.

36 Comments

SteelyDan

May 23, 2019 at 12:30 pm

Tour players are not trying to maximize distance. They make concessions for accuracy. On average, they hit down with the driver. Great article.

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Daniel Kidd

May 23, 2019 at 6:08 am

I see both sides of the debate. From experience, I see what you are saying Terry, but I also agree with some of the naysayers in the comments too. On the one hand, I have almost always found a 330 yd hole more difficult when I bash driver as hard as I can, rather than hitting to the 100 yd marker and wedging in. It’s rare when laying back that I make worse than par, and I make about the same number of birdies. Definitely make more bogeys when hammering away.

On the flip side, the pro game is different from ours, and their skill with the half shots and from the rough is so good they can get away with bashing it off the tee and attacking all the par 5’s (even if they can’t reach them all in two). Plus, the rough at the courses we usually play isn’t as penal as tour rough.

I did find it fascinating that the worst GIR player from the fairway is better at hitting greens than the best player from the rough. You’d think that stat would have some of the pros thinking of placing more emphasis on finding fairways.

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Sahil

May 23, 2019 at 2:50 am

I get what Terry is saying. To discount the driver, in my opinion can hinder your game, although at my club games there are few guys who use only an iron of the tee and they play off a 10 H.I and less but none are less than 7. The guys who really play well (H.I of 8 and less) hit driver consistently and fairly accurately. But I think “do what ever it takes to keep your ball in play”.
The consistent club winners do this consistently.

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Bob Jones

May 22, 2019 at 7:23 pm

Terry, accurate is good, but so is long. It is not true that if you hit the ball farther you will always be in the weeds.

I can dial back my tee shots so I always land them in the fairway. But if I hit my normal tee shot and miss four fairways, and am 25-50 yards longer every time (to use your yardage), I am going to shoot a lower score because on those ten holes I hit the fairway I will be using an easier club to hit into the green, and that more than makes up for the fairways I miss, which will not always cost me the loss of a stroke anyway. I keep records. Of the holes were I get a par or birdie, I miss the fairway about half the time. I get away with it because I don’t miss by much and the rough we play from on recreational courses isn’t punitive.

As for hitting greens, I score lots of pars by getting up and down from greenside. GIR is overrated, if you ask me.

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Jamie Collis

May 22, 2019 at 7:18 pm

I learnt to play golf in Canada and the US and the rough is manicured compared to the Australian courses I now play. The Australian rough consists of gras tuffs, bare lies and uneven ground and as a HC 9 I find it difficult to hit greens from these lies. For this reason, the foundation for my best rounds are long drives in the middle of the fairway which makes it easier to hit greens in the 2 club winds we typically play in.

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Pelling

May 22, 2019 at 6:06 pm

Brooks Koepka hit a gap wedge 160 yards to one foot on #10 for birdie. That seemed to be his scoring club. The ball goes too far.

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Drew

May 22, 2019 at 2:34 pm

I find it comical that many GolfWRXers apply articles they read about statistical analysis on the tour to their own game, as if they are playing “the same” game. Realistically, as pointed out many times in these comments, you are not playing the same game as the pros. You are playing shorter courses, you are playing shorter/thinner rough, you are not as precise with your ball striking, you are not as accurate with your distance control, and you are not as accurate in general at navigating your shots as the Pros.
I’d like to add a couple points to Terry’s case about the advantages of hitting the fairways that he didn’t touch on, but I feel greatly affect the recreational golfer’s success on the course because of our lack of precision and accuracy compared to the pros. From the fairway, the impedance of overhanging trees is dramatically eliminated, our angle to the pin is greatly improved, and the visual aesthetics of the hole are generally better (for example seeing the front of the green instead of only a giant bunker). These are all things that improve a recreational golfers confidence when standing over the ball for their second shot, and confidence is something all recreational golfers need more of. Outside of the fact that we cannot shape the ball left or right to miss a tree and still hit the green, or flight a punch out to roll up accurately from 150 away, or be assured we are going to get enough club on the ball out of the rough to carry the bunker 125 yards away like the pros can, we just simply do not play the same game as them. We need clean, confidence inspiring looks.
As a more general statement to take away from all this, off the tee you should hit the absolute longest club you can that will not get you into trouble a significant portion of the time. If Driver could roll through the fairway and put you under a tree, take 3W and assure yourself you will have a look at the green. If rolling through the fairway still gives you an unimpeded shot to the green, then take driver. Manage your game, do not just think because Brooks and DJ can bomb and gouge that you should too.

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Terry B Koehler

May 22, 2019 at 10:12 am

Thank you all for sounding off and “taking it to me”. I apparently did not make my point as I had intended. I agree with all the comments that the long hitters on tour are dominating, and probably will from now on. And I have great respect for Mark Brodie’s work. But our games are a far cry from theirs, and the courses we play are much different, as several of you pointed out. The point I was trying to make — and apparently did not do very well — is that even tour professionals are not nearly as good at hitting greens and getting it close from the rough as they are from the fairway even 25-50 yards further back. Given that statistical insight, it would make sense that this would apply to us recreational golfers as well, wouldn’t it? From my personal observations, scoring is just easier for all of us when we keep the drives in the fairway, just as it is for tour players. And that we probably suffer more from errant drives than they do, because we do not have their skills around the greens. Finally, I was trying to communicate that most recreational golfers are not going to make the physical commitment to change their body with lots of gym work to continually add yards; given that, working on hitting more fairways would probably help lower scores.

Thanks again to all of you for sounding off, though. That keeps me on my toes.

Reply Report comment
- Barney Puttick
  
  May 23, 2019 at 3:43 am
  
  Great article Terry, and as a coach I will use your thoughts with my recreational students , as I agree the fairway is the way to go !
  
  Reply Report comment
jgpl001

May 22, 2019 at 5:43 am

The wedge guy is correct but the the ave club player and the ave tour pro was never further apart – in 1970 the ave club hcp was 18 and today it is 18, but the stats on tour across this period is startling

On the PGA tour short hitters rarely win – a wedge from the rough for these guys is preferable to 6 iron from the fairway

I don’t see any new OEM drivers boast about more “accuracy” or talk about “dialling it back a little”

We have been conditioned for “more speed”, “everyone gets faster”, etc.

For me I know if I keep it in play I score well, if not I don’t – simple, but as a dedicated ho I will always looks for anything that give me an extra yard….and I am not a short hitter…

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JP

May 21, 2019 at 10:59 pm

Terry K got schooled here.

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Stephen Peltier

May 21, 2019 at 10:36 pm

I’ve actually done a lot of deep analysis on this, even threw some AI machine learning at it and my conclusions are as follows. People that can hit the golf ball well score better than people who suck at hitting the golf ball.

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Steve Wozeniak PGA

May 21, 2019 at 10:10 pm

Terry,

Golf wrks readers know a little more than you thought huh!!!!!!

No worries you will do better next time.

Steve Wozeniak PGA

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Alex

May 21, 2019 at 6:20 pm

Because you’ll win your club championship in a scratch division going 69, 70 or something like that on a course that rates out at 74 or so. On a PGA tour course that rates out 78 or 79 at least with way faster green, more tucked pins, and even longer rough a 69 and 70 will make cut but thats about it most likely. I agree to the average or even club scratch golfer being “long enough” and hitting fairways and greens is the way to go…most of us don’t have the 63 gear in us even at our own home comfy track. The sport the guys on tv play might as well be another sport. Every week somebody gets hot and goes low 60’s and its a birdie fest. If we go out and got 69 70 in a 2 day tournament thats probably 7/10 birdies depending how you attack par 5s. Every week somebody has one round that they make that many birdies and they sit atop the leaderboard and so on and so forth and it becomes a tournament for racehorses and we see them get deeper than 15 most weeks. The way they are doing that is basically putting all their eggs in the basket of attacking par 5’s the random short par 4 and rolling the dice that the driver makes more birdies happen and worry about worse results later. The majority of us are trying to post scores to get a better handicap, the majority of them are trying to make money and either win majors and be hall of famers, win tournaments and then a major, finish top 10 and then a win, make cuts and ultimately keep their card. There is some young bomber waiting on the Web that is capable of shooting 62 and taking a journey man’s card. They are full sprint all the time on tour cause if its their week they go all out to win because it might not happen ever again. Us mere mortals will shoot another 71 or 69 or whatever before summers end and the way to shoot a bunch of low to mid 70’s doing it is fairways and greens. They are also just a lot more talented than all of us and that’s a hard pill for most of us to swallow, but the truth hurts.

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PSG

May 21, 2019 at 6:16 pm

*sighs*

Basic things seem somewhat beyond this guy.

Why would a guy playing to shoot the best score he can use the same strategy as a pro who either wins the tournament or doesn’t care?

The pros play bomb and gauge because there is a 70 person field and somebody in that field who plays bomb and gauge will win. We don’t have a 70 person field, Terry. The two goals are completely different. The pros are not trying to shoot their best average score over time, they’re trying to spike a tournament.

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Zach

May 21, 2019 at 5:22 pm

I agree with the people saying to A) read Every Shot Counts and B) that you need to consider the courses most Ams play vs. the ones PGA tour pro’s play. The greens that probably 90% of us play on are slow, maybe the nicest ones stimp around 9 or 10; Those greens are much slower and softer than what is on tour. I can afford to bomb the ball into the rough at my courses because I can easily hold a green with a wedge from the rough, whereas guys on Tour still might see significant run out on firm and fast greens, even from 130 yards away.

Also consider the rough on most courses that the Tour stops at is much thicker and longer than what majority of us see. The rough at Bethpage was unreal…and how many courses have fescue like that? Only in certain areas.

DJ and Brooks vs guys like Chez Reavie and Furyk … Who are you betting on to win the next major? Tiger literally made a career out of being the longest guy out there, fairways were an after thought. He was so good from the rough it didn’t matter.

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- T
  
  May 21, 2019 at 7:34 pm
  
  Eldrick was able to escape from the rough because of square grooves. Yes he thrived in that era.
  What was the one complaint from that time? That the rough didn’t mean anything as they could gouge it out and the ball still stayed on the green.
  Don’t let his supposed skill fool you.
  
  Reply Report comment
gery katona

May 21, 2019 at 4:59 pm

I’m just a 66 year old 15 handicapper that used to hit my drives about 220yds. But I changed my strategy and swing after reading some stats that show there isn’t very much correlation between fairways hit and GIR, or more importantly, scoring. I mainly apply lag with the driver as opposed to trying to muscle, or push the club into the ball and gained at least 20 yards, I would say more than that. The longer the drive, the easier all the rest of the shots are. Less club into the green means closer to the hole. Closer to the hole means fewer putts needed. The drive sets up the hole and distance cannot be ignored. Also, I play mostly public courses and a fair number of private ones as well. On most of those courses, the rough is not very consequential anyway, so just rip it the best you can. Now matter how weak you are, a longer drive helps anyone.

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D

May 21, 2019 at 1:48 pm

Complete and utter tosh.
Where are the Stats singling out Bethpage, Shinnecock, Erin Hills or even Chambers Bay? Where are the driving stats and GIR stats from those majors?
The reason is obvious as to why I would talk about those: the Rough is more than twice as thick as at regular Tour stops.
Even the week before Bethpage. That Trinity Forest course has NO rough. None. Wide open fairway. The penalty was missing greens, greens that have rolling drop offs and slick slopes al around.

Your article is shyte.

The reason why the feet have to come off the ground for the driver compared to the old days of Persimmon is because the ball is 2 inches off the ground on a tee now, when the ball was barely ¼ inch off the ground in the old days.

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Doug

May 21, 2019 at 1:35 pm

Mr Koehler, read “Every Shot Counts” by Mark Broadie to see how to actually apply the math you are speaking of and realize it supports the opposite of your conclusion. Within the skill range of PGA tour players, distance is one of the biggest determining factors of success.

Leave actual math analysis to trained professionals. This opinion piece degrades your credibility.

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- Jack Attack
  
  May 21, 2019 at 4:23 pm
  
  I’ll second Doug’s comments. Broadie’s book provides a framework on how to accurately breakdown and understand where players are better or worse than the field. The speculation in this article is just wrong and a waste of time.
  
  Do us all a favor and read Mark Broadie’s book, and then come back with a new & informed piece for WRX.
  
  Reply Report comment
  - Scratchscorer
    
    May 21, 2019 at 5:13 pm
    
    I’ll third that. Read the book and you will have an understanding of how much distance matters.
    
    Reply Report comment
- Kyle
  
  May 21, 2019 at 5:37 pm
  
  Yep. The math doesn’t lie. There is a reason these “bomb and gougers” are so successful.
  
  Reply Report comment
Payton

May 21, 2019 at 1:21 pm

You forgot to account for the fact nobody hits 100% fairways. Missing 2 more fairways and having wedge instead of 7 iron means you will make up strokes through your round. The biggest gains for average players isn’t squeezing out a few more yards, unless your hard swings squeeze 10+ more yards, it’s about not hitting 3 wood or other shorter clubs. The 20+ yards lost by clubbing down are a significant loss if it’s not required by the hole.

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Bones

May 21, 2019 at 12:25 pm

People have already done the math on this and this isn’t exactly the result. Maybe read what Mark Broadie & Scott Fawcett have to say on the subject…

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- Scratchscorer
  
  May 21, 2019 at 5:17 pm
  
  Exactly. I don’t understand how articles that contradict the statistics are still being perpetuated as true. This is golf propaganda.
  
  Reply Report comment
NYCBethpageBlack

May 21, 2019 at 11:55 am

Reality is most of the courses on the PGA allow for bomb and gouge. They are typically very long and many are fairly open with relatively wide fairways and the rough/trees don’t really destroy your scoring ability until you are way out of the fairway. Take the TPC courses for example. I have played 6 different TPC courses, and even when on my bad driving days, I still shoot in the mid-low 80s from the tips (Registered HCP is ~10).

And then there is Bethpage black. I play there 2-3x yearly and while trees are rarely in play, the deep rough is 3 feet or less from the fairway. If I don’t drive the ball well on the Black course, I will not break 90. Period.

We all saw that second shot DJ hit on #1 this weekend that went about 40 yards, right? That ball was less that 12 feet from being in the fairway. On most TPC courses he can still hit that shot on the green with some spin to boot; on the black course, he couldn’t even get it halfway to the hole.

The reason guys play golf the way they do now is that the majority of the courses got longer after the Tiger era, but only some punish missing fairways. Sure, if you hit it into the woods or 20 yards off the fairway, all the PGA courses play difficult, but few will punish you like bethpage black if you are not flat on target.

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Benny

May 21, 2019 at 11:00 am

TK15 Bad math and anedotal proof, you can do better.

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Jeff

May 21, 2019 at 10:55 am

This may be true for amateur golfers but is far from the truth on the PGA. The longest players are far and away the best. You may not lose strokes from the fairway at 175 yds but the difference from being in the rough at 175 vs 125 is extremely different. If the best guy on tour is still only 3/4 fairways, that means 1/4 times he’s losing almost a full stroke by being 50 yds further back. There’s a reason why all the best players in the world are bombers. The misconception is that making the rough longer and the fairways narrower hurts those guys. It actually helps them because of how much larger a penalty it is to miss a fairway at 175 out vs 125 out.

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Tom

May 21, 2019 at 10:29 am

Yeah, This is exactly why Chez Reavie is winning so many events… Oh… wait… Nevermind. If you look at the top ten in accuracy off the tee. you have 1 win in the last 2 years. If you look at the top 10 in distance you have 5. I think I would take the distance…

if you go out to top 20 in distance you have a lot more wins in the last two years. I counted 15 in think. If you go out to the top 20 in driving accuracy, the number is still 1.

So the money goes to distance.

Reply Report comment
- Tom
  
  May 21, 2019 at 10:31 am
  
  correct that, you have 3 wins if you go out to the top 20 in accuracy, but distance still has it, by a long distance.
  
  Reply Report comment
- Luke
  
  May 21, 2019 at 10:51 am
  
  I think their has to be some correlation between the stronger drivers also having the strength and clubhead speed being able to get the ball out of the wicked lies in the rough they face more often.
  
  Doesn’t mean the average golfer shouldn’t prioritize being in the short stuff.
  
  Reply Report comment
  - Jeff
    
    May 21, 2019 at 10:58 am
    
    it’s more just that it’s easier to get the ball out of the rough with a wedge than it is with a 6i. I mean strength helps but loft makes the bigger difference here, imo.
    
    Reply Report comment
Juststeve

May 21, 2019 at 10:12 am

Reality has been somewhat distorted by the way the governing bodies pick courses and set them up. Last week at the Black is a perfect example. By selecting that course the PGA eliminated about half the field, the half who are not bombers. The course conditions, damp and soft eliminated another 20%, those who can’t carry the ball a long way. As a result only a relative handful of golfers were really in it to win. Koepka was the best of that handful last week.

Consider now the results on a hypothetical different course, a Harbor Town or a Colonial for example. Now we have a tournament where most of the field has a real chance to compete, not just the longest hitter. We have a tournament where whoever has the best game throughout the bag has a shot at winning. More interesting in my opinion, but the networks like chicks did the big hitters.

I’d like to see courses that are more available to all first class golfers. Marion is a great example. Difficult to be sure, fair, and the best overall golfer of the week has a real chance to win.

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Joe

May 21, 2019 at 9:20 am

I completely agree with this. Of course strong wedge play within 75 yards can certainly help “save” strokes, but for the purpose of scoring better I agree hitting fairways are more important. My lowest rounds this year have all come when ive hit 10+ fairways in a round.

When the driver hasn’t worked for me, I’ve “scored” better when I put the driver away and hit a 2 iron in the fairway much more consistently.

Reply Report comment
- tom
  
  May 21, 2019 at 7:54 pm
  
  Your best round may come from when you hit the most fairways of course, what you don’t understand though is that these bombers are only hitting 1 or maybe 2 less fairways but are 40 yards ahead of you every time when they in the fairway. Sure they may make bogey on that 1 extra hole they miss the fairway on, but they are going to make a hell of a lot more birdies from 40 yards up when they are in the fairway.
  
  A second point is also that when you are 40 yards ahead (in the fairway or the rough it applies to both), you are reducing your chance of making a bogey by a significant amount when comparing it to being further back, so its a double winner.
  
  Reply Report comment

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 2

Published

11 hours ago

May 9, 2024

Terry Koehler

In my last post, I explained the basic performance dynamics of “smash factor” and “gear effect” as they apply to your wedges and your wedge play success. If you missed that post, you can read it here.

At the end of that post, I promised “part 2” of this discussion of what makes a wedge work the way it does. So, let’s dive into the other two components of any wedge – the shaft and the grip.

It’s long been said that the shaft is “the engine of the golf club.” The shaft (and grip) are your only connection to all the technologies that are packed into the head of any golf club, whether it be a driver, fairway, hybrid, iron, wedge or even putter.

And you cannot ignore those two components of your wedges if your goal is optimizing your performance.

I’ve long been an advocate of what I call a “seamless transition” from your irons into your wedges, so that the feel and performance do not disconnect when you choose a gap wedge, for example, instead of your iron-set-matching “P-club.” In today’s golf equipment marketplace, more and more golfers are making the investment of time and money to experience an iron fitting, going through trial and error and launch monitor measuring to get just the right shaft in their irons.

But then so many of those same golfers just go into a store and choose wedges off the retail display, with no similar science involved at all. And that’s why I see so many golfers with a huge disconnect between their custom-fitted irons, often with lighter and/or softer graphite or light steel shafts . . . and their off-the-rack wedges with the stock stiff steel ‘wedge flex’ shaft common to those stock offerings.

If your wedge shafts are significantly heavier and stiffer than the shafts in your irons, it is physically impossible for you to make the same swing. Period.

To quickly improve your wedge play, one of the first things you can do is have your wedges re-shafted with the same or similar shaft that is in your irons.

There’s another side of that shaft weight equation; if you don’t have the forearm and hand strength of a PGA Tour professional, you simply cannot “handle” the same weight shaft that those guys play to master the myriad of ‘touch shots’ around the greens.

Now, let’s move on to the third and other key component of your wedges – the grips. If those are not similar in shape and feel to the grips on your irons, you have another disconnect. Have your grips checked by a qualified golf club professionals to make sure you are in sync there.

The one caveat to that advice is that I am a proponent of a reduced taper in your wedge grips – putting two to four more layers of tape under the lower hand, or selecting one of the many reduced taper grips on the market. That accomplishes two goals for your scoring.

First, it helps reduce overactive hands in your full and near-full wedge swings. Quiet hands are key to good wedge shots.

And secondly, it provides a more consistent feel of the wedge in your hands as you grip down for those shorter and more delicate shots around the greens. And you should always grip down as you get into those touch shots. I call it “getting closer to your work.”

So, if you will spend as much time selecting the shafts and grips for your wedges as you do choosing the brand, model, and loft of them, your scoring range performance will get better.

Vincenzi’s 2024 Wells Fargo Championship betting preview: Tommy Fleetwood ready to finally land maiden PGA Tour title

Published

3 days ago

May 6, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

The PGA Tour season ramps back up this week for another “signature event,” as golf fans look forward to the year’s second major championship next week.

After two weaker-field events in the Zurich Classic and the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, most of the best players in the world will head to historic Quail Hollow for one of the best non-major tournaments of the year.

Last season, Wyndham Clark won the event by four shots.

Quail Hollow is a par-71 measuring 7,521 yards that features Bermudagrass greens. The tree-lined, parkland style course can play quite difficult and features one of the most difficult three-hole stretches in golf known as “The Green Mile,” which makes up holes 16-18: two mammoth par 4s and a 221-yard par 3. All three holes have an average score over par, and water is in play in each of the last five holes on the course.

The field is excellent this week with 68 golfers teeing it up without a cut. All of the golfers who’ve qualified are set to tee it up, with the exception of Scottie Scheffler, who is expecting the birth of his first child.

Past Winners at Quail Hollow

2023: Wyndham Clark (-19)
2022: Max Homa (-8)
2021: Rory McIlroy (-10)
2019: Max Homa (-15)
2018: Jason Day (-12)
2017: Justin Thomas (-8) (PGA Championship)
2016: James Hahn (-9)
2015: Rory McIlroy (-21)

Key Stats For Quail Hollow

Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes gained: Approach will be extremely important this week as second shots at Quail Hollow can be very difficult.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

Akshay Bhatia (+1.16)
Tom Hoge (+1.12)
Corey Conners (+1.01)
Shane Lowry (+0.93)
Austin Eckroat (+0.82)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Quail Hollow is a long course on which it is important to play from the fairway. Both distance and accuracy are important, as shorter tee shots will result in approach shots from 200 or more yards. With most of the holes heavily tree lined, errant drives will create some real trouble for the players.

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Past 24 Rounds:

Ludvig Aberg (+0.73)
Rory McIlroy (+0.69)
Xander Schauffele (+0.62)
Viktor Hovland (+0.58)
Chris Kirk (+0.52)

Proximity: 175-200

The 175-200 range is key at Quail Hollow. Players who can hit their long irons well will rise to the top of the leaderboard.

Proximity: 175-200+ over past 24 rounds:

Cameron Young (28’2″)
Akshay Bhatia (29’6″)
Ludvig Aberg (+30’6″)
Sam Burns (+30’6″)
Collin Morikawa (+30’9″)

SG: Total on Tom Fazio Designs

Players who thrive on Tom Fazio designs get a bump for me at Quail Hollow this week.

SG: Total on Tom Fazio Designs over past 36 rounds:

Patrick Cantlay (+2.10)
Rory McIlroy (+1.95)
Tommy Fleetwood (+1.68)
Austin Eckroat (+1.60)
Will Zalatoris (+1.57)

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)

Strokes Gained: Putting has historically graded out as the most important statistic at Quail Hollow. While it isn’t always predictable, I do want to have it in the model to bump up golfers who prefer to putt on Bermudagrass.

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass) Over Past 24 Rounds:

Taylor Moore (+0.82)
Nick Dunlap (+.76)
Wyndham Clark (+.69)
Emiliano Grillo (+.64)
Cam Davis (+.61)

Course History

This stat will incorporate players that have played well in the past at Quail Hollow.

Course History over past 36 rounds (per round):

Rory McIlroy (+2.50)
Justin Thomas (+1.96)
Jason Day (+1.92)
Rickie Fowler (+1.83)
Viktor Hovland (+1.78)

Wells Fargo Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: Off the Tee (23%), SG: Total on Fazio designs (12%), Proximity: 175-200 (12%), SG: Putting Bermuda grass (12%), and Course History (14%).

Wyndham Clark
Rory McIlroy
Xander Schauffele
Shane Lowry
Hideki Matsuyama
Viktor Hovland
Cameron Young
Austin Eckroat
Byeong Hun An
Justin Thomas

2024 Wells Fargo Championship Picks

Tommy Fleetwood +2500 (DraftKings)

I know many out there have Tommy fatigue when it comes to betting, which is completely understandable given his lack of ability to win on the PGA Tour thus far in his career. However, history has shown us that players with Fleetwood’s talent eventually break though, and I believe for Tommy, it’s just a matter of time.

Fleetwood has been excellent on Tom Fazio designs. Over his past 36 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Fazio tracks. He’s also been incredibly reliable off the tee this season. He’s gained strokes in the category in eight of his past nine starts, including at The Masters, the PLAYERS and the three “signature events” of the season. Tommy is a golfer built for tougher courses and can grind it out in difficult conditions.

Last year, Fleetwood was the first-round leader at this event, firing a Thursday 65. He finished the event in a tie for 5th place.

For those worried about Fleetwood’s disappointing start his last time out at Harbour Town, he’s bounced back nicely after plenty of poor outings this season. His T7 at the Valero Texas Open was after a MC and T35 in his prior two starts and his win at the Dubai Invitational came after a T47 at the Sentry.

I expect Tommy to bounce back this week and contend at Quail Hollow.

Justin Thomas +3000 (DraftKings)

It’s been a rough couple of years for Justin Thomas, but I don’t believe things are quite as bad as they seem for JT. He got caught in the bad side of the draw at Augusta for last month’s Masters and has gained strokes on approach in seven of his nine starts in 2024.

Thomas may have found something in his most recent start at the RBC Heritage. He finished T5 at a course that he isn’t the best fit for on paper. He also finally got the putter working and ranked 15th in Strokes Gained: Putting for the week.

The two-time PGA champion captured the first of his two major championships at Quail Hollow back in 2017, and some good vibes from the course may be enough to get JT out of his slump.

Thomas hasn’t won an event in just about two years. However, I still believe that will change soon as he’s been one of the most prolific winners throughout his PGA Tour career. Since 2015, he has 15 PGA Tour wins.

Course history is pretty sticky at Quail Hollow, with players who like the course playing well there on a regular basis. In addition to JT’s PGA Championship win in 2017, he went 4-1 at the 2022 Presidents Cup and finished T14 at the event last year despite being in poor form. Thomas can return as one of the top players on the PGA Tour with a win at a “signature event” this week.

Cameron Young +3500 (DraftKings)

For many golf bettors, it’s been frustrating backing Cam Young this season. His talent is undeniable, and one of the best and most consistent performers on the PGA Tour. He just hasn’t broken through with a victory yet. Quail Hollow has been a great place for elite players to get their first victory. Rory McIlroy, Anthony Kim, Rickie Fowler and Wyndham Clark all notched their first PGA Tour win at Quail.

Throughout Cam Young’s career, he has thrived at tougher courses with strong fields. This season, he finished T16 at Riviera and T9 at Augusta National, demonstrating his preference of a tough test. His ability to hit the ball long and straight off the tee make him an ideal fit for Quail Hollow, despite playing pretty poorly his first time out in 2023 (T59). Young should be comfortable playing in the region as he played his college golf at Wake Forest, which is about an hour’s drive from Quail Hollow.

The 26-year-old has played well at Tom Fazio designs in the past and ranks 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on those courses in his last 36 rounds. Perhaps most importantly, this season, Young is the best player on the PGA Tour in terms of proximity from 175-200 in the fairway, which is where a plurality and many crucial shots will come from this week.

Young is an elite talent and Quail Hollow has been kind to players of his ilk who’ve yet to win on Tour.

Byeong Hun An +5000 (FanDuel)

Byeong Hun An missed some opportunities last weekend at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. He finished T4 and played some outstanding golf, but a couple of missed short putts prevented him from getting to the winning score of -23. Despite not getting the win, it’s hard to view An’s performance as anything other than an overwhelming success. It was An’s fourth top-ten finish of the season.

Last week, An gained 6.5 strokes ball striking, which was 7th in the field. He also ranked 12th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th for Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. The South Korean has been hitting the ball so well from tee to green all season long and he now heads to a golf course that should reward his precision.

An’s driver and long irons are absolute weapons. At Quail Hollow, players will see plenty of approach shots from the 175-200 range as well as some from 200+. In his past 24 rounds, Ben ranks 3rd in the field in proximity from 175-200 and 12th in proximity from 200+. Playing in an event that will not end up being a “birdie” fest should help An, who can separate from the field with his strong tee to green play. The putter may not always cooperate but getting to -15 is much easier than getting to -23 for elite ball strikers who tend to struggle on the greens.

Winning a “signature event” feels like a tall task for An this week with so many elite players in the field. However, he’s finished T16 at the Genesis Invitational, T16 at The Masters and T8 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The 32-year-old’s game has improved drastically this season and I believe he’s ready to get the biggest win of his career.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s LIV Golf Singapore betting preview: Course specialist ready to thrive once again

Published

1 week ago

Apr 30, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

After another strong showing in Australia, LIV Golf will head to Sentosa Golf Club in Singapore looking to build off of what was undoubtedly their best event to date.

Sentosa Golf Club sits on the southern tip of Singapore and is one of the most beautiful courses in the world. The course is more than just incredible scenically; it was also rated 55th in Golf Digest’s top-100 courses in 2022-2023 and has been consistently regarded as one of the best courses in Asia. Prior to being part of the LIV rotation, the course hosted the Singapore Open every year since 2005.

Sentosa Golf Club is a par 71 measuring 7,406 yards. The course will require precise ball striking and some length off the tee. It’s possible to go low due to the pristine conditions, but there are also plenty of hazards and difficult spots on the course that can bring double bogey into play in a hurry. The Bermudagrass greens are perfectly manicured, and the course has spent millions on the sub-air system to keep the greens rolling fast. I spoke to Asian Tour player, Travis Smyth, who described the greens as “the best [he’s] ever played.”

Davis Love III, who competed in a Singapore Open in 2019, also gushed over the condition of the golf course.

“I love the greens. They are fabulous,” the 21-time PGA Tour winner said.

Love III also spoke about other aspects of the golf course.

“The greens are great; the fairways are perfect. It is a wonderful course, and it’s tricky off the tee.”

“It’s a long golf course, and you get some long iron shots. It takes somebody hitting it great to hit every green even though they are big.”

As Love III said, the course can be difficult off the tee due to the length of the course and the trouble looming around every corner. It will take a terrific ball striking week to win at Sentosa Golf Club.

In his pre-tournament press conference last season, Phil Mickelson echoed many of the same sentiments.

“To play Sentosa effectively, you’re going to have a lot of shots from 160 to 210, a lot of full 6-, 7-, 8-iron shots, and you need to hit those really well and you need to drive the ball well.”

Golfers who excel from tee to green and can dial in their longer irons will have a massive advantage this week.

Stat Leaders at LIV Golf Adelaide:

Fairways Hit

1.) Louis Oosthuizen

2.) Anirban Lahiri

3.) Jon Rahm

4.) Brendan Steele

5.) Cameron Tringale

Greens in Regulation

1.) Brooks Koepka

2.) Brendan Steele

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Cameron Tringale

5.) Anirban Lahiri

Birdies Made

1.) Brendan Steele

2.) Dean Burmester

3.) Thomas Pieters

4.) Patrick Reed

5.) Carlos Ortiz

LIV Golf Individual Standings:

1.) Joaquin Niemann

2.) Jon Rahm

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Louis Oosthuizen

5.) Abraham Ancer

LIV Golf Team Standings:

1.) Crushers

2.) Legion XIII

3.) Torque

4.) Stinger GC

5.) Ripper GC

LIV Golf Singapore Picks

Sergio Garcia +3000 (DraftKings)

Sergio Garcia is no stranger to Sentosa Golf Club. The Spaniard won the Singapore Open in 2018 by five strokes and lost in a playoff at LIV Singapore last year to scorching hot Talor Gooch. Looking at the course setup, it’s no surprise that a player like Sergio has played incredible golf here. He’s long off the tee and is one of the better long iron players in the world when he’s in form. Garcia is also statistically a much better putter on Bermudagrass than he is on other putting surfaces. He’s putt extremely well on Sentosa’s incredibly pure green complexes.

This season, Garcia has two runner-up finishes, both of them being playoff losses. Both El Camaleon and Doral are courses he’s had success at in his career. The Spaniard is a player who plays well at his tracks, and Sentosa is one of them. I believe Sergio will get himself in the mix this week. Hopefully the third time is a charm in Singapore.

Paul Casey +3300 (FanDuel)

Paul Casey is in the midst of one of his best seasons in the five years or so. The results recently have been up and down, but he’s shown that when he’s on a golf course that suits his game, he’s amongst the contenders.

This season, Casey has finishes of T5 (LIV Las Vegas), T2 (LIV Hong Kong), and a 6th at the Singapore Classic on the DP World Tour. At his best, the Englishman is one of the best long iron players in the world, which makes him a strong fit for Sentosa. Despite being in poor form last season, he was able to fire a Sunday 63, which shows he can low here at the course.

It’s been three years since Casey has won a tournament (Omega Dubai Desert Classic in 2021), but he’s been one of the top players on LIV this season and I think he can get it done at some point this season.

Mito Pereira +5000 (Bet365)

Since Mito Pereira’s unfortunate demise at the 2022 PGA Championship, he’s been extremely inconsistent. However, over the past few months, the Chilean has played well on the International Series as well as his most recent LIV start. Mito finished 8th at LIV Adelaide, which was his best LIV finish this season.

Last year, Pereira finished 5th at LIV Singapore, shooting fantastic rounds of 67-66-66. It makes sense why Mito would like Sentosa, as preeminent ball strikers tend to rise to the challenge of the golf course. He’s a great long iron player who is long and straight off the tee.

Mito has some experience playing in Asia and is one of the most talented players on LIV who’s yet to get in the winner’s circle. I have questions about whether or not he can come through once in contention, but if he gets there, I’m happy to roll the dice.

Andy Ogletree +15000 (DraftKings)

Andy Ogletree is a player I expected to have a strong 2024 but struggled early in his first full season on LIV. After failing to crack the top-25 in any LIV event this year, the former U.S. Amateur champion finally figured things out, finished in a tie for 3rd at LIV Adelaide.

Ogletree should be incredible comfortable playing in Singapore. He won the International Series Qatar last year and finished T3 at the International Series Singapore. The 26-year-old was arguably the best player on the Asian Tour in 2023 and has been fantastic in the continent over the past 18 months.

If Ogletree has indeed found form, he looks to be an amazing value at triple-digit odds.

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