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Tour Rundown: More May showers from England to Texas
The ladies of the LPGA and LET had the week off, so we’ll have to make due with the lads. No worries there, as 5 of the world’s major professional tours were in action. “Fairway Jesus,” as David Feherty likes to call Tommy Fleetwood, hosted the British Masters in Southport, England, while the Asia-Pacific Open was contested in Japan. Stateside, the Webbies were in Kansas City MO, while the Oldsters did battle in the first of back-to-back, major championships on PGA Tour Champions. Finally, the regular PGA Tour met in Dallas at the linksy Trinity Forest, where rain did its best to delay and detour. Ultimately, the players sneaked in 72 holes.
We find ourselves in the midst of a new major timetable. From April to July, on at least one tour each week, a major is to be contested. More attention for that tour, more of a chance for establishment (or redemption) of one’s career, is on the books. Pay close attention this week at Bethpage, when the PGA Championship debuts in May, or next week in Rochester, when the Senior PGA returns to Oak Hill. With no disrespect intended toward other professional tournaments, major titles are the ones that catch the attention of the lightweight golf fan, turning her or him into a passionate one, if only for a weekend. On, then, to this week’s Tour Rundown.
PGA Tour’s Byron Nelson Classic has one victor, but much gratitude
While Sung-hoon Kang left Trinity Forest with a trophy and a big check, a handful of other golfers left with confidence. Coming into the season of many majors, that’s just as valuable. Kang lost the lead on Saturday to Matt Every, then reclaimed it Sunday morning, during the 3rd round restart. The two golfers handed the top spot back and forth through the entirety of the final 18 holes. Every had 5 birdies (and one bogey) over the first 6 holes, then Kang made a run with birdies from 14 through 16. The only way to separate was to play perfect golf, and the winds, wetness and diversity at Trinity Forest didn’t allow that, not for anyone in the final round. Check that. Scott Piercy was perfect. He birdied 6 of his first 8 holes to reach -20. He needed to reach 9-under on the day, but only one more birdie awaited. He tied Every at -21, two behind the victor.
In addition to Every and Piercy, Kiradech Aphibarnrat, Peter Uihlein, Rory Sabbatini, Matt Jones and Tyler Duncan also came away with top-five finishes. Knowing that they were a run of birdies away from a challenge will stand them well as they travel half a country north, to near Long Island. Bethpage Black could not differ more from this week’s venue, but don’t tell that to those who left Dallas with the greatest prize: their confidence.
Sung Kang is a @KobeBryant fan.
Three straight back-nine birdies.
Stepping up in the 4th quarter.#LiveUnderPar pic.twitter.com/9FRaiZ2YCU
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) May 12, 2019
European Tour witness to Kinhult’s first triumph
Host Tommy Fleetwood gave everything he had to the 2019 British Masters, but with 6 holes remaining, he ran out of gas in an effort to hand himself the trophy. Next came defending champion Eddie Pepperell, he of the enviable wit and golf game. Pepperell reached the clubhouse at -15, and with golfers falling to their apparent doom behind him, looked a solid bet to at least reach extra holes. Bobby MacIntyre of Scotland joined the defender at 15 below par, and the pair waited for the final group to conclude play. Sweden’s Marcus Kinhult, with no wins to his name, played solid golf through the 14th, as Matthew Wallace alongside failed to separate himself from the field. Still chuffed at being ignored for a Ryder Cup captain’s pick last fall, Wallace has played with a sizable chip on his shoulder ever since. Over the closing six holes, with a chance to seize victory, the Englishman made six unfortunate pars, finishing on -15 with the earlier pair. Kinhult played as expected, making consecutive bogeys at 15 and 16 to begin to fall away. Just as suddenly, when all was certainly lost, he returned birdies at 17 and 18 to reach 16-under and shock the tournament field. With the win, the Swede’s OWGR status of 210 will certainly change, as he moves close to the top 100. For Wallace, an opportunity lost. For Pepperell, a near-defense. For MacIntyre, validation.
????? Marcus Kinhult's winning round in three minutes.#BetfredBritishMasters pic.twitter.com/zm5qPIVtNx
— The European Tour (@EuropeanTour) May 12, 2019
Gellerman claims first Web win at KC Golf Classic
Did anyone win this week, who hadn’t won before? I don’t think so. Holy smokes! In truth, I had no idea who Michael Gellerman was before today. I found his profile on the Web.Com Tour page, and thought that he possessed a face that combined Chris Farley with a young Ron Howard. In other words, middle America. Before today, Gellerman ranked 75th on tour; this evening, he sits at #8. Good week, wouldn’t you say? For the majority of the weekend, I expected that Argentina’s Nelson Ledesma would break through for his first victory. The Platense had 65 on Saturday, but certainly didn’t expect a 17-par, 1-bogey Sunday. Despite the absence of fuel on day four, Ledesma finished one excruciating stroke behind, in a tie for 2nd with Harry Higgs. Unlike the PGA Tour this week, many players had to feel like they let this one slip away, beginning with Ledesma. Luke Guthrie and Jack Maguire were even on the day and finished 3 back. Kyle Reifers was +1 on the day and sat alongside, at -8. Gellerman’s winning round was opportunistic: he made a birdie here, than a bunch of pars. Another birdie, then a second string of pars. When he birdied the 13th, the game was on. No one would catch him, and season-long goals would need a review.
Down the stretch @KCGolfClassic …
• @OUKnowMike -11 (13)
• @HarryHiggs1991 -10 (14)
• @NelsonLedesmaOK -10 (12)
• @KyleReifersPGA -10 (12)#WebTour pic.twitter.com/uGxek9ym1X— Web.com Tour (@WebDotComTour) May 12, 2019
Asian Tour sees Asaji’s inaugural victory on home soil
It seems that a stellar young prospect emerges from Japan every decade or so. Ryo Ishikawa and Hideki Matsuyama have shown their skills in recent years, and the future seems bright for amateur Ren Yonezawa, who posted 2-under par this week at the Sobu country club. That number tied him with the USA’s Micah Lauren Shihn at the end of 72 holes, but the pair found itself staring up at Yosuke Asaji, who eclipsed them by one with -3 total. The victory was Asaji’s first on the Asian Tour, Asaji and Shin were the front-runners entering round four, but each struggle to a +1 score of 72 on the final day. In contrast, Yonezawa played brilliantly, tying for low round of the day with 68. For Asaji, the victory validated years of toil on practice ranges and putting greens; for the young Yonezawa, the almost-was signals an opportunity to ascend the WAGA rankings and perhaps make a career of professional golf one day.
#DiamondCup ????????
A slim one-shot lead for @yosuke_asaji with 8 holes to go. Currently 3-under par and leading @MICahshin1 by 1. Only 3 players still under par now!#whereitsAT pic.twitter.com/1oTcoWaUTg— Asian Tour (@asiantourgolf) May 12, 2019
It’ll be a Monday finish at @RegionsTrad.
7:30 resumption to Round 4 with @stevestricker leading by two. pic.twitter.com/flYEunNdOI
— PGA TOUR Champions (@ChampionsTour) May 12, 2019
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Vincenzi’s 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson betting preview: International talent to shine
As anticipation mounts for the 2024 PGA Championship at Valhalla in a few weeks, the PGA Tour makes a pit stop in McKinney, Texas to play The CJ CUP Byron Nelson.
Last year was the third time TPC Craig Ranch hosted the Byron Nelson. Prior to 2021, the event was held at Trinity Forest Golf Club in Dallas.
TPC Craig Ranch is a 7,414-yard par-71 that features Bentgrass greens. The event historically plays relatively easy, and that has remained the case in the three editions at TPC Craig Ranch.
The course structure may provide some additional intrigue with the par-3 17th featuring a stadium setup called “Ranch 17” which is reminiscent of the 16th hole at TPC Scottsdale. The course also has both long and difficult par-4s mixed with drivable par-4s, which should create some exciting moments.
There are 156 golfers in the field this week, and many stars will be taking the week off to prepare for 2023’s second major championship in a few weeks and a “signature event” at Quail Hollow next week. Notable players in the field include Jordan Spieth, Jason Day, Sungjae Im, Stephan Jaeger, Tom Kim, Si Woo Kim, Min Woo Lee, Alex Noren, Adam Scott and Will Zalatoris.
Past Winners of the AT&T Byron Nelson
- 2023: Jason Day (-23 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2022: K.H. Lee (-26 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2021: K.H. Lee (-25 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2019: Sung Kang (-23)
- 2018: Aaron Wise (-23)
- 2017: Billy Horschel (-12)
- 2016: Sergio Garcia (-15)
- 2015: Steven Bowditch (-18)
Key Stats at TPC Craig Ranch
Let’s take a look at five key metrics for TPC Craig Ranch to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Approach remains the best measure of current form.
Hot iron play will be at a premium this week. Last year, Jason Day gained 6.4 strokes on approach, which was fourth in the field. In 2022, K.H. Lee was ninth in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining 5.2 strokes. In his 2021 victory, he was second in the field and gained 8.3 strokes on the field in the category.
Strokes Gaines: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds
- Tom Hoge (+1.12)
- Keith Mitchell (+1.02)
- Henrik Norlander (+0.99)
- Ryan Moore (+0.98)
- Ben Martin (0.80)
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Fairways are wide at TPC Craig Ranch.
Distance will certainly be helpful, and there aren’t too many difficult holes on the course. Golfers who put themselves in position off of the tee this week should have a sizable advantage.
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Over Past 24 Rounds
- Peter Kuest (+0.93)
- Kevin Daugherty (+0.91)
- Alejandro Tosti (+0.83)
- Keith Mitchell (+0.82)
- Kevin Tway (+0.74)
Birdie or Better %
There aren’t many hazards on the course, and all of the par-5s should be reachable in two for the majority of the players in the field. I am anticipating a birdie fest, and this statistic should be helpful in finding the birdie-makers.
Birdie or Better % Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Wesley Bryan (31%)
- Kelly Kraft (26.2%)
- Peter Kuest (25.9%)
- Matti Schmid (25.7%
- Jimmy Stanger (25.2%)
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
Many golfers on TOUR have some major putting surface variance in their statistics and prefer Bentgrass to other surfaces.
Bentgrass is common in Texas, and we often see golfers who play well in Texas continue to do so, finding a great feel around the greens.
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass) Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Maverick McNealy (+0.92)
- Aaron Baddeley (+0.87)
- Callum Tarren (+0.86)
- Harry Hall (+0.81)
- Nick Hardy (+0.69)
Course History
This statistic will tell us which players have performed the best at TPC Craig Ranch over the past three seasons.
Course History Over Past 12 Rounds:
- Jordan Spieth (+2.69)
- K.H. Lee (+2.59)
- Seamus Power (+1.84)
- Ryan Palmer (+1.76)
- Adam Scott (+1.72)
CJ CUP Byron Nelson Model Rankings
Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: OTT (24%), Birdie or Better % (18%), Course History (17%) and SG: Putting Bentgrass (16%).
- Alex Noren
- Adam Scott
- Keith Mitchell
- Si Woo Kim
- Stephen Jaeger
- Jordan Spieth
- Jhonnatan Vegas
- Nate Lashley
- Brice Garnett
- Tom Hoge
2024 CJ CUP Byron Nelson Picks
Byeong Hun An +3000 (DraftKings)
Byeong Hun put together an excellent performance at The Masters, finishing T16, which ties his best ever finish at a major championship (also T16 at 2019 U.S. Open). The South Korean gained 9.16 strokes from tee to green, which ranked 2nd in the field behind only the champion, Scottie Scheffler.
An’s next start at Harbour Town didn’t go as well (67th), but he still had a fantastic ball striking week. The 32-year-old bled strokes both around and on the greens, which was his eventual undoing. In his past three starts, An has gained significant strokes on the field both off the tee and on approach.
Benny had a strong start at last year’s Byron Nelson, finishing in a tie for 14th. With limited challenges on the course, he shouldn’t have to do much scrambling. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 17th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 17th in the field in birdie or better percentage. The putter is up and down per usual, but his ceiling putting weeks with his LAB Golf putter in 2024 are higher than they’ve been in past seasons.
An is starting to become my “white whale” of the PGA Tour, but I believe in his talent and TPC Craig Ranch is a course that should suit his excellent tee to green play.
Mackenzie Hughes +5500 (FanDuel)
Mackenzie Hughes is quietly putting together a very good season. He finished in a tie for 3rd at the Valspar Championship and followed that up with a T14 at the Texas Children’s Houston Open.
In his past 36 rounds in Texas, the Canadian ranks 5th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total. Last year, he finished in a tie for 14th at this event and gained strokes putting and off the tee. Mackenzie played well that week despite being in extremely poor form. He missed two cuts in a row prior to the event, and four consecutive cuts immediately after. His irons were off that week, but in 2024, we’ve seen an improvement in Hughes’ approach game. He now comes to the event playing some steady golf. He’s gained strokes on approach in four of his past five events and is hitting the ball very well from tee to green.
Hughes has two victories on the PGA Tour, both coming in relatively low-scoring affairs (-17 in each). He will need to go a bit deeper to win the CJ Cup Byron Nelson but has the type of putter that can keep pace in a birdie barrage.
Seamus Power +7000 (FanDuel)
After struggling over the past few seasons with injuries, Seamus Power seems as if he is rounding back into the form that made him a really consistent player on the PGA Tour.
Power finished T12 in his most recent start at the RBC Heritage, which is encouraging considering it was a “signature event” with a very strong field. For the week, the Irishman gained 4.4 strokes on approach and 2.8 strokes putting, which is the combination he’s used in the past to contend on Tour.
In his three trips to TPC Craig Ranch, Power is yet to finish outside of the top-20, with his best finish being a T9 in 2019. He ranks 4th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course. The 37-year-old thrives on easy tracks and has won in 2021 (Barbasol Championship) and 2022 (Butterfield Bermuda) on easier layouts with weaker fields.
Power has the game to go extremely low and I believe he can get back in the winner’s circle for the third time in four years.
Chan Kim +10000 (FanDuel)
Chan Kim has been striking the ball beautifully this season and is a proven winner with two wins on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2023 as well as eight career Japan Tour wins.
At last week’s Zurich Classic, Kim and his partner Doug Ghim finished in a tie for 28th. Prior to that, the South Korean T14 at the Valero Texas Open and T6 at the Corales Puntacana Championship. His success this season in Texas as well as he propensity to play his best golf on the PGA Tour’s easier courses make him and ideal fit for TPC Craig Ranch.
2024 has given plenty of longshot winners on the PGA Tour, and with a birdie fest like this, I believe there’s a strong chance we get another this week in McKinney, Texas.
Alejandro Tosti +10000 (FanDuel)
Alejandro Tosti is one of the most polarizing players on the PGA Tour thus far in the 2024 season. His antics can rub many the wrong way, but he’s shown on a few occasions that he has what it takes to compete in Tour events.
This season, Tosti has been elite off the tee. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 2nd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. The Argentine hits it long and straight, which works at any course on earth. He got a taste of contention a few starts ago at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, finishing in a tie for 2nd place.
Tosti had a fantastic year in 2023 on the Korn Ferry Tour, where going low is a prerequisite to success. If this turns to a shootout, which it likely will, the 27-year-old has the ability to set the pace. Tosti will look to become the second Argentine to win in Texas in the past two seasons after Emiliano Grillo emerged victorious at last year’s Charles Schwab Challenge.
C.T. Pan +15000 (FanDuel)
Outside of a T3 at the Mexico Open, C.T. Pan doesn’t have strong results this season in terms of finishes. However, over his past two starts, Pan’s iron play has come alive. At The Players, he gained 6.6 strokes on approach. At the Valero Texas Open, he gained 3.7. At last week’s Zurich Classic, Pan and his partner Kevin Yu finished T28. For a player who can get extremely hot with his scoring clubs, I believe he’s playing better than the results have shown over the past month or so.
Last season, Pan finished 4th at TPC Craig Ranch and was spectacular across all the major stat categories. In his past 36 qualifying rounds, he ranks 16th in Strokes Gained: Total in Texas.
Pan has won on the PGA Tour at the RBC Heritage and is always a player that I believe has what it takes to win on a Sunday if he finds himself in contention.
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Morning 9: McIlroy, Lowry win Zurich | Green repeats on LPGA | Steele victorious down under
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Morning 9: 58 on the Korn Ferry Tour | Rory on possible return to policy board
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