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Tour Rundown: Kentucky Derby weekend yields plenty of partying
Kentucky Derby weekend, May The Fourth Be With You, Cinco de Mayo, whatever you celebrated over the last three days, the first weekend in May of 2019 was made for a party. Max Homa had a party, as did Scott McCarron, Mikko Korhonen, and Robby Shelton. There were first-time winners on two tours, along with a victory from a golfer who wants to establish himself as his tour’s best, and a winner who nearly gave it all away. Will May 5th be remembered as the start of something special, some day down the road? Have a look and let us know, as we offer up this week’s Tour Rundown.
PGA Tour’s Eddie Pepperell-light takes 1st title at Wells Fargo
Max Homa won’t ever be confused with the wit of Eddie Pepperell, the funniest golf guy on Twitter. Homa has a fine education from Berkley, but his Twitter takes are not nearly as rakish as those of the Englishman. Still, Homa has one more PGA Tour victory than Pepperell, thanks to a victory at Quail Hollow, one of the tour’s most daunting and difficult tracks. Homa, Joel Dahmen and Jason Dufner were all in the mix on Saturday night, but ironically, it was the more-experienced Dufner who caved.
The 2013 PGA Champion blew north to +2 and a 4th-place tie. Dahmen, best known previously for calling out Sung Kang for cheating at the Quicken Loans, followed opening 66s with closing 70s, to finish at -12. A fine performance, to be sure, but Homa ran for homa like a Derby champion on Sunday. 5 birdies and a clean card through 15 holes in round four were enough for the Walker Cupper to make bogey at 16 and still win by 3. Dahmen came 2nd at -12, with Justin Rose in Show position at -11. Homa was part of a stellar 2013 USA Walker Cup side, but transition from top amateur to top pro is an unspecific science. Justin Thomas was a part of that team, as was Michael Kim. Kim has won, and we know what Thomas has done. Homa now joins them as tour winners, but will he reveal more, to get to the next level?
This second shot into the par-5 15th led to a two-putt birdie.@maxhoma23 enters the Green Mile with a four-stroke lead.#LiveUnderPar pic.twitter.com/t0GEggSVns
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) May 5, 2019
Korhonen captures 2nd European Tour title at China Open
A lot of names were in the mix as the China Open drew to a close this weekend. Benjamin Hebert of France made an attempt to win his first top-shelf professional title A week after claiming his 1st big event, Spain’s Jorge Campillo joined the hunt, in search of a quick 2nd. Mikko Korhonen of Finland birdied the 17th hole to reach 20-under par, then watched as Hebert birdied the 18th to tie him, one shot clear of Campillo. Off to extra holes they went, but the journey was brief. Both golfers returned to the drivable 18th, all of 320 yards, and nearly reached the putting surface. Korhonen was able to get up and down for 3, while Hebert came up shy of a matching birdie. In my opinion, Korhonen’s all-or-nothing approach to the playoff was the correct one. Playing safe with a chance to win is a fool’s errand; when a stroke-play event is down to you and the other guy, go for the win!.
Mikko Korhonen, the 2019 Volvo China Open Champion! ???? pic.twitter.com/o6V0SIux9w
— The European Tour (@EuropeanTour) May 5, 2019
Another Web.Com Tour win for Sweet Home Alabama at the Nasvhille Golf Open
Robby Shelton and Scottie Scheffler played on different astral planes this week. Shelton was 4 better than Scheffler on Thursday. The tables turned as Sheffler went 6 better on Friday. Shelton returned on Saturday with a 9-stroke differential, and Sunday returned the advantage to Scheffler, this time by 7 strokes. Of course, all this topsy-turvy play assured that the two youngsters with unlimited potential would tie for first at -15. One behind them was Sweden’s Henrik Norlander, whose 72nd-hole birdie brought him agonizingly close to the top. S and S headed out to the par-five closer at Nashville GAC.
Shelton had been oh-s0-close this year (come to think of it, so had Scheffler) and fittingly, a birdie on extra hole one by the former University of Alabama golfer brought him his first Web.Com title. As for Scheffler, the former University of Texas athlete had to find consolation in his best Web.Com tour finish of his career. It won’t surprise anyone to see both golfers earn battlefield promotions during the 2019 regular season. Their games are more refined than any other golfers on the Triple-A circuit, and a budding rivalry is the best thing for the tour, and for them. They don’t have to hate each other, but they do have to hate the thought of losing to the other. If we’re lucky, this rivalry will carry all the way to the PGA Tour, where things could really get fun.
Our top-5 shots from the final round @NashGolfOpen, including Robby Shelton’s two clutch birdies to force a playoff and take the title. ???? pic.twitter.com/xcSN4ZL4up
— Web.com Tour (@WebDotComTour) May 6, 2019
The Comeback Kim takes LPGA Tour’s Mediheal Championship in extra time
Sei Young Kim looked for all the world a champion on Saturday afternoon. After 2 holes on Sunday, her disguise came off. A double bogey-bogey start sent her toward a +4 front nine, where she fell hard from the top of the leader board. Fortunately for her, the free run was accepted by no challenger, and a birdie-par-bogey-birdie finish was enough to get the struggling Kim into a playoff with England’s Bronte Law, and Korea’s J Lee6. That’s right, Lee6. Lee6 finished 4-under over the closing 4 holes to nearly snatch a regulation-time victory. After Kim’s eagle effort from off the 18th green just missed, the trio headed back to the home hole’s tee. Kim made yet another birdie to claim victory. After playing the closing hole birdie-eagle-birdie over the first three days, Law parred it twice on Sunday. That’s lack of crunch time experience. Lee6 came closer, with birdie in regulation, but it was the many-times winner Sei Young Kim who gathered herself when the winds had changed against her, and fought back like a lion.
Sei Young Kim birdies the first playoff hole to win her eight @LPGA Tour event!
Congratulations @SY_KIM_lpga!
???????????? pic.twitter.com/yKKdfmFBRf
— LPGA (@LPGA) May 6, 2019
Scott McCarron grabs 2nd PGA Tour Champions win of 2019 at Insperity Invitational
Over Kentucky Derby weekend, betting a guy named “Scott” on the Champions Tour was a sure thing. Figuring out which of the two hot Scotts would be the winner was the greater challenge. Scott McCarron found himself in very good form, having won his 9th career Champions tour event last month in Atlanta. Scott Parel won twice in 2018 and came close earlier this year, losing in a playoff at Rapiscan.
At this week’s Insperity Invitational in Houston’s northern suburbs, McCarron finished at -18 for a 3-shot winner over Parel. Each golfer made 3 bogeys on the week and, while Parel had the edge in eagles (1-0), McCarron had 4 birdies more for the winning margin. It was another 3 strokes back to 3rd place, where 2-time US Open champion Lee Janzen sat. McCarron moved $300K ahead of Kirk Triplett in the Schwab Cup race for 2019 and that’s where he should stay. McCarron is one of those golfers whose best days are ahead of him. He is fit, strong and long, and has a decided advantage over every other golfer on the senior circuit. All that holds him back is himself. McCarron is the guy to put an end to Bernhard Langer’s ridiculous dominance.
Stick it close @ScottMcCarron! ????
What a shot at the @InsperityInvtnl. ???? pic.twitter.com/KJj4YsVZNF
— PGA TOUR Champions (@ChampionsTour) May 5, 2019
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Vincenzi’s 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson betting preview: International talent to shine
As anticipation mounts for the 2024 PGA Championship at Valhalla in a few weeks, the PGA Tour makes a pit stop in McKinney, Texas to play The CJ CUP Byron Nelson.
Last year was the third time TPC Craig Ranch hosted the Byron Nelson. Prior to 2021, the event was held at Trinity Forest Golf Club in Dallas.
TPC Craig Ranch is a 7,414-yard par-71 that features Bentgrass greens. The event historically plays relatively easy, and that has remained the case in the three editions at TPC Craig Ranch.
The course structure may provide some additional intrigue with the par-3 17th featuring a stadium setup called “Ranch 17” which is reminiscent of the 16th hole at TPC Scottsdale. The course also has both long and difficult par-4s mixed with drivable par-4s, which should create some exciting moments.
There are 156 golfers in the field this week, and many stars will be taking the week off to prepare for 2023’s second major championship in a few weeks and a “signature event” at Quail Hollow next week. Notable players in the field include Jordan Spieth, Jason Day, Sungjae Im, Stephan Jaeger, Tom Kim, Si Woo Kim, Min Woo Lee, Alex Noren, Adam Scott and Will Zalatoris.
Past Winners of the AT&T Byron Nelson
- 2023: Jason Day (-23 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2022: K.H. Lee (-26 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2021: K.H. Lee (-25 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2019: Sung Kang (-23)
- 2018: Aaron Wise (-23)
- 2017: Billy Horschel (-12)
- 2016: Sergio Garcia (-15)
- 2015: Steven Bowditch (-18)
Key Stats at TPC Craig Ranch
Let’s take a look at five key metrics for TPC Craig Ranch to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Approach remains the best measure of current form.
Hot iron play will be at a premium this week. Last year, Jason Day gained 6.4 strokes on approach, which was fourth in the field. In 2022, K.H. Lee was ninth in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining 5.2 strokes. In his 2021 victory, he was second in the field and gained 8.3 strokes on the field in the category.
Strokes Gaines: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds
- Tom Hoge (+1.12)
- Keith Mitchell (+1.02)
- Henrik Norlander (+0.99)
- Ryan Moore (+0.98)
- Ben Martin (0.80)
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Fairways are wide at TPC Craig Ranch.
Distance will certainly be helpful, and there aren’t too many difficult holes on the course. Golfers who put themselves in position off of the tee this week should have a sizable advantage.
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Over Past 24 Rounds
- Peter Kuest (+0.93)
- Kevin Daugherty (+0.91)
- Alejandro Tosti (+0.83)
- Keith Mitchell (+0.82)
- Kevin Tway (+0.74)
Birdie or Better %
There aren’t many hazards on the course, and all of the par-5s should be reachable in two for the majority of the players in the field. I am anticipating a birdie fest, and this statistic should be helpful in finding the birdie-makers.
Birdie or Better % Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Wesley Bryan (31%)
- Kelly Kraft (26.2%)
- Peter Kuest (25.9%)
- Matti Schmid (25.7%
- Jimmy Stanger (25.2%)
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
Many golfers on TOUR have some major putting surface variance in their statistics and prefer Bentgrass to other surfaces.
Bentgrass is common in Texas, and we often see golfers who play well in Texas continue to do so, finding a great feel around the greens.
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass) Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Maverick McNealy (+0.92)
- Aaron Baddeley (+0.87)
- Callum Tarren (+0.86)
- Harry Hall (+0.81)
- Nick Hardy (+0.69)
Course History
This statistic will tell us which players have performed the best at TPC Craig Ranch over the past three seasons.
Course History Over Past 12 Rounds:
- Jordan Spieth (+2.69)
- K.H. Lee (+2.59)
- Seamus Power (+1.84)
- Ryan Palmer (+1.76)
- Adam Scott (+1.72)
CJ CUP Byron Nelson Model Rankings
Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: OTT (24%), Birdie or Better % (18%), Course History (17%) and SG: Putting Bentgrass (16%).
- Alex Noren
- Adam Scott
- Keith Mitchell
- Si Woo Kim
- Stephen Jaeger
- Jordan Spieth
- Jhonnatan Vegas
- Nate Lashley
- Brice Garnett
- Tom Hoge
2024 CJ CUP Byron Nelson Picks
Byeong Hun An +3000 (DraftKings)
Byeong Hun put together an excellent performance at The Masters, finishing T16, which ties his best ever finish at a major championship (also T16 at 2019 U.S. Open). The South Korean gained 9.16 strokes from tee to green, which ranked 2nd in the field behind only the champion, Scottie Scheffler.
An’s next start at Harbour Town didn’t go as well (67th), but he still had a fantastic ball striking week. The 32-year-old bled strokes both around and on the greens, which was his eventual undoing. In his past three starts, An has gained significant strokes on the field both off the tee and on approach.
Benny had a strong start at last year’s Byron Nelson, finishing in a tie for 14th. With limited challenges on the course, he shouldn’t have to do much scrambling. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 17th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 17th in the field in birdie or better percentage. The putter is up and down per usual, but his ceiling putting weeks with his LAB Golf putter in 2024 are higher than they’ve been in past seasons.
An is starting to become my “white whale” of the PGA Tour, but I believe in his talent and TPC Craig Ranch is a course that should suit his excellent tee to green play.
Mackenzie Hughes +5500 (FanDuel)
Mackenzie Hughes is quietly putting together a very good season. He finished in a tie for 3rd at the Valspar Championship and followed that up with a T14 at the Texas Children’s Houston Open.
In his past 36 rounds in Texas, the Canadian ranks 5th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total. Last year, he finished in a tie for 14th at this event and gained strokes putting and off the tee. Mackenzie played well that week despite being in extremely poor form. He missed two cuts in a row prior to the event, and four consecutive cuts immediately after. His irons were off that week, but in 2024, we’ve seen an improvement in Hughes’ approach game. He now comes to the event playing some steady golf. He’s gained strokes on approach in four of his past five events and is hitting the ball very well from tee to green.
Hughes has two victories on the PGA Tour, both coming in relatively low-scoring affairs (-17 in each). He will need to go a bit deeper to win the CJ Cup Byron Nelson but has the type of putter that can keep pace in a birdie barrage.
Seamus Power +7000 (FanDuel)
After struggling over the past few seasons with injuries, Seamus Power seems as if he is rounding back into the form that made him a really consistent player on the PGA Tour.
Power finished T12 in his most recent start at the RBC Heritage, which is encouraging considering it was a “signature event” with a very strong field. For the week, the Irishman gained 4.4 strokes on approach and 2.8 strokes putting, which is the combination he’s used in the past to contend on Tour.
In his three trips to TPC Craig Ranch, Power is yet to finish outside of the top-20, with his best finish being a T9 in 2019. He ranks 4th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course. The 37-year-old thrives on easy tracks and has won in 2021 (Barbasol Championship) and 2022 (Butterfield Bermuda) on easier layouts with weaker fields.
Power has the game to go extremely low and I believe he can get back in the winner’s circle for the third time in four years.
Chan Kim +10000 (FanDuel)
Chan Kim has been striking the ball beautifully this season and is a proven winner with two wins on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2023 as well as eight career Japan Tour wins.
At last week’s Zurich Classic, Kim and his partner Doug Ghim finished in a tie for 28th. Prior to that, the South Korean T14 at the Valero Texas Open and T6 at the Corales Puntacana Championship. His success this season in Texas as well as he propensity to play his best golf on the PGA Tour’s easier courses make him and ideal fit for TPC Craig Ranch.
2024 has given plenty of longshot winners on the PGA Tour, and with a birdie fest like this, I believe there’s a strong chance we get another this week in McKinney, Texas.
Alejandro Tosti +10000 (FanDuel)
Alejandro Tosti is one of the most polarizing players on the PGA Tour thus far in the 2024 season. His antics can rub many the wrong way, but he’s shown on a few occasions that he has what it takes to compete in Tour events.
This season, Tosti has been elite off the tee. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 2nd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. The Argentine hits it long and straight, which works at any course on earth. He got a taste of contention a few starts ago at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, finishing in a tie for 2nd place.
Tosti had a fantastic year in 2023 on the Korn Ferry Tour, where going low is a prerequisite to success. If this turns to a shootout, which it likely will, the 27-year-old has the ability to set the pace. Tosti will look to become the second Argentine to win in Texas in the past two seasons after Emiliano Grillo emerged victorious at last year’s Charles Schwab Challenge.
C.T. Pan +15000 (FanDuel)
Outside of a T3 at the Mexico Open, C.T. Pan doesn’t have strong results this season in terms of finishes. However, over his past two starts, Pan’s iron play has come alive. At The Players, he gained 6.6 strokes on approach. At the Valero Texas Open, he gained 3.7. At last week’s Zurich Classic, Pan and his partner Kevin Yu finished T28. For a player who can get extremely hot with his scoring clubs, I believe he’s playing better than the results have shown over the past month or so.
Last season, Pan finished 4th at TPC Craig Ranch and was spectacular across all the major stat categories. In his past 36 qualifying rounds, he ranks 16th in Strokes Gained: Total in Texas.
Pan has won on the PGA Tour at the RBC Heritage and is always a player that I believe has what it takes to win on a Sunday if he finds himself in contention.
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Morning 9: McIlroy, Lowry win Zurich | Green repeats on LPGA | Steele victorious down under
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Morning 9: 58 on the Korn Ferry Tour | Rory on possible return to policy board
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