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Tour Rundown: Week of Redemption
The 2018 tour schedules came to a redemptive end on Sunday. Professionals with a variety of sortings-out came to the fore and raised championship prizes in Dubai, Georgia and Florida. There will be golf over the next six weeks, but the majority of it will feature exhibitions of all sizes and flavors. For now, Tour Rundown revels in the achievements of four figures and bids you until later for 2018.
Chucky Three Sticks snatches third tour win on Sea Island
For every tour upstart column, there is a story on a can’t-miss prospect who nearly misses. Charles Howell III (those III are the Three Sticks in his nickname) was the can’t-miss prospect during his time at Oklahoma State. On tour, he lost two playoffs in his first three seasons, but also claimed victory in Virginia. Over the ensuing 15 years, Howell had a successful career, but only one other victory, to go with two more playoff losses. His best finish in a major championship was a tie for 10th in the 2003 PGA Championship. He hasn’t played Augusta since 2012, so the label Journeyman Pro would not be out of place, nor insulting.
On Sunday at Sea Island, Howell held off Patrick Rodgers, a player with a similar pedigree, with birdie on the second hole of a playoff. The victory was the third of his career, following a 2007 playoff win over Phil Mickelson in Los Angeles. 11 years is a long interlude between victories, and the significance was not lost on the titleist. For Rodgers, the bitter taste of defeat is certainly sated by the knowledge that he is one stop closer to his goal of winning on the world’s toughest tour. Over the course of round four, the victor was tied at the top by Webb Simpson, Cameron Champ and Rodgers, but found his winning formula in a blend of grit and patience.
On Sunday, Charles Howell III ended the longest drought between TOUR wins. He needed two extra holes at @TheRSMClassic to do it.
Highlights from Round 4: pic.twitter.com/pjEsjDV0Pa
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) November 19, 2018
Willett’s resolve is tested on final day of World Tour Championship
Danny Willett has had a rough couple of years. Not as rough as Justin Rose’s early-career run of bad fortune and form, but fairly similar in a compressed manner. The last time he held or shared the third-round lead, he collapsed in round four in Malaysia 2017. His tenacity paid off on Sunday in Dubai, when the 2016 Masters champion claimed his first professional victory in the 2.5 years since that august occasion. Willett held off a charging Matt Wallace and a harder-charging Patrick Reed for a two-stroke victory.
The victory was Willett’s fifth on the European Tour, and second in Dubai. The Yorkshireman birdied three of his final five holes to hold off Wallace (2 under on back nine) and Reed (4 under on inward half) by 2 shots, on 18 under total. Willett’s long road to victory was fraught with challenge, coalescing into a recovery from a serpentine burn on the final hole at Jumeirah Estates. With the form of a champion, he escaped and strode to victory.
Danny played it…#DPWTC #RolexSeries pic.twitter.com/nTlhtoH0NH
— The European Tour (@EuropeanTour) November 18, 2018
Thompson takes Tour Championship title in Naples
Lexi Thompson is an immeasurable talent. We know her height, but not her strength. She has earned 10 tour titles, but lost all three playoffs in which she has participated. Over the summer, she took a one-month leave from tour for a recharging of the soul. With the season-ending tour championship on tap, Thompson had yet to hoist a trophy in 2018.
In Naples this week, she set her sights on her own sort of redemption. Thompson wrested the lead from Amy Olson in round two and set sail for the winner’s harbor. Her final-round 70, her only score outside of the 60s all week, was enough to claim a four-shot victory over upstart Nelly Korda. It took Thompson 40 holes to make her first bogey at the CME Group event on Florida’s west coast. She didn’t make another until round four, when she tripled her week-long total. Three bogeys over 72 holes is an undebatable recipe for success. For Thompson, it validated her decision to put self ahead of expectations, and doubtless sends her into the off-season in a proper frame of body and mind. In the year-long race for tour supremacy, world number one Ariya Jutanugarn rode a final-round 66 to victory.
Abraham Ancer Aces Australia Open Assessment
We couldn’t let 2018 drift away without one last run at alliteration. Abraham Ancer is a rising star for whom success was neither predicted nor obvious. He has played professionally for five years, working his way from Odessa College and the University of Oklahoma, to the Web.Com tour, and now the PGA Tour.
Ancer’s first trip Down Under resulted in the first important victory of his career. After positioning well with matching 69s on Thursday and Friday, Ancer made nine birdies at The Lakes in Sydney on Saturday, signing for 65 and the overnight lead. His third 69 of the week was enough to secure a five-shot win over the home country’s Dimitrios Papadatos, and a boundless amount of confidence as the off-season beckons. With the victory, Ancer also qualified into the 2019 Open Championship at Royal Portrush.
Highlights from the final day at #AusOpenGolf ??@PGAofAustralia @TheLakesGC @Abraham_Ancer https://t.co/SNGTh6aqUG
— #AusOpenGolf (@AusOpenGolf) November 18, 2018
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Vincenzi’s 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson betting preview: International talent to shine
As anticipation mounts for the 2024 PGA Championship at Valhalla in a few weeks, the PGA Tour makes a pit stop in McKinney, Texas to play The CJ CUP Byron Nelson.
Last year was the third time TPC Craig Ranch hosted the Byron Nelson. Prior to 2021, the event was held at Trinity Forest Golf Club in Dallas.
TPC Craig Ranch is a 7,414-yard par-71 that features Bentgrass greens. The event historically plays relatively easy, and that has remained the case in the three editions at TPC Craig Ranch.
The course structure may provide some additional intrigue with the par-3 17th featuring a stadium setup called “Ranch 17” which is reminiscent of the 16th hole at TPC Scottsdale. The course also has both long and difficult par-4s mixed with drivable par-4s, which should create some exciting moments.
There are 156 golfers in the field this week, and many stars will be taking the week off to prepare for 2023’s second major championship in a few weeks and a “signature event” at Quail Hollow next week. Notable players in the field include Jordan Spieth, Jason Day, Sungjae Im, Stephan Jaeger, Tom Kim, Si Woo Kim, Min Woo Lee, Alex Noren, Adam Scott and Will Zalatoris.
Past Winners of the AT&T Byron Nelson
- 2023: Jason Day (-23 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2022: K.H. Lee (-26 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2021: K.H. Lee (-25 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2019: Sung Kang (-23)
- 2018: Aaron Wise (-23)
- 2017: Billy Horschel (-12)
- 2016: Sergio Garcia (-15)
- 2015: Steven Bowditch (-18)
Key Stats at TPC Craig Ranch
Let’s take a look at five key metrics for TPC Craig Ranch to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Approach remains the best measure of current form.
Hot iron play will be at a premium this week. Last year, Jason Day gained 6.4 strokes on approach, which was fourth in the field. In 2022, K.H. Lee was ninth in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining 5.2 strokes. In his 2021 victory, he was second in the field and gained 8.3 strokes on the field in the category.
Strokes Gaines: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds
- Tom Hoge (+1.12)
- Keith Mitchell (+1.02)
- Henrik Norlander (+0.99)
- Ryan Moore (+0.98)
- Ben Martin (0.80)
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Fairways are wide at TPC Craig Ranch.
Distance will certainly be helpful, and there aren’t too many difficult holes on the course. Golfers who put themselves in position off of the tee this week should have a sizable advantage.
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Over Past 24 Rounds
- Peter Kuest (+0.93)
- Kevin Daugherty (+0.91)
- Alejandro Tosti (+0.83)
- Keith Mitchell (+0.82)
- Kevin Tway (+0.74)
Birdie or Better %
There aren’t many hazards on the course, and all of the par-5s should be reachable in two for the majority of the players in the field. I am anticipating a birdie fest, and this statistic should be helpful in finding the birdie-makers.
Birdie or Better % Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Wesley Bryan (31%)
- Kelly Kraft (26.2%)
- Peter Kuest (25.9%)
- Matti Schmid (25.7%
- Jimmy Stanger (25.2%)
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
Many golfers on TOUR have some major putting surface variance in their statistics and prefer Bentgrass to other surfaces.
Bentgrass is common in Texas, and we often see golfers who play well in Texas continue to do so, finding a great feel around the greens.
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass) Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Maverick McNealy (+0.92)
- Aaron Baddeley (+0.87)
- Callum Tarren (+0.86)
- Harry Hall (+0.81)
- Nick Hardy (+0.69)
Course History
This statistic will tell us which players have performed the best at TPC Craig Ranch over the past three seasons.
Course History Over Past 12 Rounds:
- Jordan Spieth (+2.69)
- K.H. Lee (+2.59)
- Seamus Power (+1.84)
- Ryan Palmer (+1.76)
- Adam Scott (+1.72)
CJ CUP Byron Nelson Model Rankings
Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: OTT (24%), Birdie or Better % (18%), Course History (17%) and SG: Putting Bentgrass (16%).
- Alex Noren
- Adam Scott
- Keith Mitchell
- Si Woo Kim
- Stephen Jaeger
- Jordan Spieth
- Jhonnatan Vegas
- Nate Lashley
- Brice Garnett
- Tom Hoge
2024 CJ CUP Byron Nelson Picks
Byeong Hun An +3000 (DraftKings)
Byeong Hun put together an excellent performance at The Masters, finishing T16, which ties his best ever finish at a major championship (also T16 at 2019 U.S. Open). The South Korean gained 9.16 strokes from tee to green, which ranked 2nd in the field behind only the champion, Scottie Scheffler.
An’s next start at Harbour Town didn’t go as well (67th), but he still had a fantastic ball striking week. The 32-year-old bled strokes both around and on the greens, which was his eventual undoing. In his past three starts, An has gained significant strokes on the field both off the tee and on approach.
Benny had a strong start at last year’s Byron Nelson, finishing in a tie for 14th. With limited challenges on the course, he shouldn’t have to do much scrambling. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 17th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 17th in the field in birdie or better percentage. The putter is up and down per usual, but his ceiling putting weeks with his LAB Golf putter in 2024 are higher than they’ve been in past seasons.
An is starting to become my “white whale” of the PGA Tour, but I believe in his talent and TPC Craig Ranch is a course that should suit his excellent tee to green play.
Mackenzie Hughes +5500 (FanDuel)
Mackenzie Hughes is quietly putting together a very good season. He finished in a tie for 3rd at the Valspar Championship and followed that up with a T14 at the Texas Children’s Houston Open.
In his past 36 rounds in Texas, the Canadian ranks 5th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total. Last year, he finished in a tie for 14th at this event and gained strokes putting and off the tee. Mackenzie played well that week despite being in extremely poor form. He missed two cuts in a row prior to the event, and four consecutive cuts immediately after. His irons were off that week, but in 2024, we’ve seen an improvement in Hughes’ approach game. He now comes to the event playing some steady golf. He’s gained strokes on approach in four of his past five events and is hitting the ball very well from tee to green.
Hughes has two victories on the PGA Tour, both coming in relatively low-scoring affairs (-17 in each). He will need to go a bit deeper to win the CJ Cup Byron Nelson but has the type of putter that can keep pace in a birdie barrage.
Seamus Power +7000 (FanDuel)
After struggling over the past few seasons with injuries, Seamus Power seems as if he is rounding back into the form that made him a really consistent player on the PGA Tour.
Power finished T12 in his most recent start at the RBC Heritage, which is encouraging considering it was a “signature event” with a very strong field. For the week, the Irishman gained 4.4 strokes on approach and 2.8 strokes putting, which is the combination he’s used in the past to contend on Tour.
In his three trips to TPC Craig Ranch, Power is yet to finish outside of the top-20, with his best finish being a T9 in 2019. He ranks 4th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course. The 37-year-old thrives on easy tracks and has won in 2021 (Barbasol Championship) and 2022 (Butterfield Bermuda) on easier layouts with weaker fields.
Power has the game to go extremely low and I believe he can get back in the winner’s circle for the third time in four years.
Chan Kim +10000 (FanDuel)
Chan Kim has been striking the ball beautifully this season and is a proven winner with two wins on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2023 as well as eight career Japan Tour wins.
At last week’s Zurich Classic, Kim and his partner Doug Ghim finished in a tie for 28th. Prior to that, the South Korean T14 at the Valero Texas Open and T6 at the Corales Puntacana Championship. His success this season in Texas as well as he propensity to play his best golf on the PGA Tour’s easier courses make him and ideal fit for TPC Craig Ranch.
2024 has given plenty of longshot winners on the PGA Tour, and with a birdie fest like this, I believe there’s a strong chance we get another this week in McKinney, Texas.
Alejandro Tosti +10000 (FanDuel)
Alejandro Tosti is one of the most polarizing players on the PGA Tour thus far in the 2024 season. His antics can rub many the wrong way, but he’s shown on a few occasions that he has what it takes to compete in Tour events.
This season, Tosti has been elite off the tee. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 2nd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. The Argentine hits it long and straight, which works at any course on earth. He got a taste of contention a few starts ago at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, finishing in a tie for 2nd place.
Tosti had a fantastic year in 2023 on the Korn Ferry Tour, where going low is a prerequisite to success. If this turns to a shootout, which it likely will, the 27-year-old has the ability to set the pace. Tosti will look to become the second Argentine to win in Texas in the past two seasons after Emiliano Grillo emerged victorious at last year’s Charles Schwab Challenge.
C.T. Pan +15000 (FanDuel)
Outside of a T3 at the Mexico Open, C.T. Pan doesn’t have strong results this season in terms of finishes. However, over his past two starts, Pan’s iron play has come alive. At The Players, he gained 6.6 strokes on approach. At the Valero Texas Open, he gained 3.7. At last week’s Zurich Classic, Pan and his partner Kevin Yu finished T28. For a player who can get extremely hot with his scoring clubs, I believe he’s playing better than the results have shown over the past month or so.
Last season, Pan finished 4th at TPC Craig Ranch and was spectacular across all the major stat categories. In his past 36 qualifying rounds, he ranks 16th in Strokes Gained: Total in Texas.
Pan has won on the PGA Tour at the RBC Heritage and is always a player that I believe has what it takes to win on a Sunday if he finds himself in contention.
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Morning 9: McIlroy, Lowry win Zurich | Green repeats on LPGA | Steele victorious down under
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Morning 9: 58 on the Korn Ferry Tour | Rory on possible return to policy board
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