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Bryson DeChambeau says he will leave the flag in while he putts in 2019

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Bryson DeChambeau is well known for being a nonconformist in the golfing world, and the 25-year-old lived up to that status once more when he announced that he plans on leaving the pin in when he putts in 2019 as doing so will be permitted under the Rules of Golf. Speaking at a photo shoot with Golf.com, DeChambeau stated that his strategy would depend on the coefficient of restitution of the flagstick (naturally).

“It depends on the COR, the coefficient of restitution of the flagstick. In U.S. Opens, I’ll take it out, and every other Tour event, when it’s fiberglass, I’ll leave it in and bounce that ball against the flagstick if I need to.”

DeChambeau is no stranger to the unorthodox; the American currently competes with irons that are the same length (that of a 7-iron) and same lie angle, as we well know. The physics major is also known to put his golf balls in a bowl of Epson Salts to make sure that they are perfectly round.

Explaining the reasoning behind his new strategy to only putt on the green when the pin is fiberglass, DeChambeau stressed that thicker pins, ala U.S. Open style, will lead to more aggressive rebounding when struck, claiming: “It’s a higher propensity for it to go in the hole if it’s fiberglass compared to metal.”

The four-time winner on the PGA Tour will have to wait until 2019 before he lets his new plan unfold, but DeChambeau is bullish that his scheme will pay off, stating

“The USGA’s gonna have to go back on that one. Like, ‘No! We made the hole bigger!’”

DeChambeau is in action this week at the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open where he began the event with a 5-under par round of 66.

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Gianni is the Managing Editor at GolfWRX. He can be contacted at [email protected].

60 Comments

60 Comments

  1. CrashTestDummy

    Nov 3, 2018 at 4:39 pm

    I have different thoughts about the flagstick, but am not against what he claims because I haven’t researched it. However, my whole thing is how the pin is oriented. On downhill putts I leave the pin in. I think helps much more than it hurts because of the way the pin is oriented. Above the cup there is an advantage because the pin is slopping away from the player on the low side of the cup, so, the cup is bigger on the high side of the cup. On the flipside on uphill putts, there is a disadvantage because since the pin is leaning toward the player, the cup is slightly smaller on the low side of the cup.

    • BoB

      Nov 5, 2018 at 4:36 am

      I believe the new rules will totally slow down the game, theb flag will be out and in all the time , player a always plays with the flagout , player b in on the long putts out on the short putts. Then the wind leaves in from one direction out from another, I play 3 hours by foot 18 holes. The games not going to be quicker for all the rule changes, its the people who have to player quicker. Please leave the rules alone.

      What comes next adouble so big hole so that the people need less putts

  2. CaoNiMa

    Nov 3, 2018 at 2:46 am

    You put your hard flag in, soft flag out, in-out, in-out, and shake it all about, you do the hokey pokey and turn the caddies all around, that’s what it’s all about!
    “No time for the old in-out, love, I’ve come to read the meter”

  3. Craig

    Nov 2, 2018 at 9:02 pm

    I expect for most players it will end up a bit like chipping. Leave it in for long putts, but for the make-able ones take it out. I guarantee Bryson takes it out on the 3 footers.

  4. JP

    Nov 2, 2018 at 5:33 pm

    Who cares? If it really helps, they will ALL do it. So wait and see…

  5. Rick

    Nov 2, 2018 at 4:59 pm

    The flagstick is like the backboard in basketball. It will never hurt a good shot, and only help a bad one. If you bang one off the stick so hard that it ricochets, it wasn’t going in anyway.

    • CrashTestDummy

      Nov 3, 2018 at 5:13 pm

      Not necessarily. Flags don’t sit perfectly in the cup and lean. So, they can be leaning depending the slope of where a cup is cut or the wind. The orientation of the flag leaning can make the cup bigger or smaller on one side of the hole which can help or hurt a putt from falling.

  6. John

    Nov 2, 2018 at 3:30 pm

    The day I leave the flag in to putt is the day I give up golf.

  7. benseattle

    Nov 2, 2018 at 2:30 pm

    I’m no physics major nor did I do a test with thousands of Pelz-inspired simulated shots nor did I conduct a chipping test with Iron Byron. However, I do know this: I can’t tell you how many HUNDREDS of times I’ve seen smooth rolling chips barely graze a flagstick and send the ball away from the hole — balls that would have DEFINITELY dropped had the flagstick been removed. Sure, a fast-moving skulled chip might fall if it hits the flagstick dead center (if it’s not so hard that it clanks off the stick back toward the player) but a ball rolling toward an empty cup at least has a chance to allow GRAVITY to take effect; not quite the case when the flagstick intercepts it first. I’ve known about the Pelz study for years but as a pretty good chipper, I always remove the pin before trying to hole a chip. Ain’t stopping now.

    The slow play deal (pin in, pin out, pin in) could very well manifest itself on the PGA Tour, depending on who’s playing and what they believe. Frankly, I don’t see a big change here: these guys have ALWAYS putted with the flag out… a habit hard to break and doesn’t the hole looks SMALLER when there’s a flagstick jammed in there?

    • Scheiss

      Nov 3, 2018 at 2:49 am

      A good speed that will catch the back of the cup on the way down by gravity will go in than the same speed that hits the flag, it’ll more than likely ricochet sideways

    • Pete

      Nov 3, 2018 at 6:34 am

      ‘Definitely dropped…’. But how do you know that? Without doing the thousands of hours of testing?

      • Brent

        Nov 3, 2018 at 8:55 am

        Some people are allergic to facts and science.

    • Mwa Kali Sana

      Nov 3, 2018 at 11:04 am

      I agree :I’m also an excellent chipper and most of the time I remove the pin if I chip to a flat green :if I chip downslope ,I keep the pin in the hole as a backstop

  8. Rich Douglas

    Nov 2, 2018 at 2:23 pm

    The only reason for pulling the flag on putts from the green is that it’s always been done that way (in our lifetimes, anyway). But it is a silly practice.

    First, no other shot mandates this, not even putts from off the green. Why the exception? I can see ALLOWING it, but REQUIRING it? Never made sense.

    Second, Dave Pelz showed in research a decade ago that it is always better to leave the flag in, even if the flag is being bent towards you by the wind, unless the wind is so strong it prevents the ball from falling in. (In which case, go into the clubhouse and have a drink.)

    The only problem with this rule is that it might slow play as players in a group go back and forth about whether or not they want the pin in. (They do, but they don’t always realize it.)

  9. Scott Grossman

    Nov 2, 2018 at 1:35 pm

    As a golfer, Bryson is something of a physicist.
    As a physicist, he is just a golfer.

  10. web design or web developer

    Nov 2, 2018 at 1:07 pm

    Thanks for finally talking about >Bryson DeChambeau says he will leave the flag
    in while he putts in 2019 – GolfWRX <Loved it!

  11. Leo Vincent

    Nov 2, 2018 at 12:19 pm

    Once again Bryson is ahead of the curve. Putting with the flag in is advantageous in most situations.It aids in alignment and it is easier to putt at something above ground.Paul Azinger has been saying this for years. As a non – scientific test on a putting green putt at a water bottle or something similar that is smaller than a hole then putt at the hole and i bet you hit the bottle a lot more than you hole it.Everyone i have done this with has. I always putt at something above ground in warm ups and visualize a bottle or can in the hole when playing.Wish they had this rule when i was playing professionally

  12. dat

    Nov 2, 2018 at 12:07 pm

    I’d be fine if he never won again and left the tour to work for NASA. Get out of here with this mumbo jumbo crap.

  13. Steven

    Nov 2, 2018 at 11:56 am

    The PGA need to address this now. The rule designed is for speed of play and not to possibly benefit a player. Bryson is hardly speedy as it is and if nothing elsei he should be penalised for not playing within “the spirit of the game”
    The rule as it stands is a joke and bother the USGA & R&A have dropped the ball here.

    • kevin

      Nov 2, 2018 at 1:46 pm

      I think this is going to backfire on the intent of the rule to speed up play.

      This isn’t about Bryson. I think this will lead to slower play. one guys wants it in, then the next wants it out, then the third wants it back in.

      I really don’t understand with all the things that could’ve been addressed, why this was a priority. The rule simply should’ve been allowing anyone playing a round ‘by theirselves’ to be able to leave the pin in while on the green and still be conforming relating to posting handicap.

      • Simms

        Nov 2, 2018 at 2:25 pm

        Our club went to the 2019 rules two weeks ago…yes you are 100% correct…the group I played in today ended up 2 holes behind and that leave the pin in take it out thing was the main cause….some of the guys have found how much of an advantage it is even on a five foot put..I am talking a Senior Mens club here…and yes 100% leaving the flag in is a plus for Senior golfer for sure….RULE CHANGE SOON, RIGHT?

  14. Curt

    Nov 2, 2018 at 11:52 am

    Worst tour player ever. Definitely should be banned from tour. I guess I’m wrong but the flag can only be used when you can’t see the hole.

    • Brent

      Nov 3, 2018 at 8:57 am

      saying worst tour player ever makes you sound extremely ignorant and grossly misinformed. And you are wrong about he rule. Why would you hate on a guy for following the rules?

    • Mike

      Nov 3, 2018 at 9:51 am

      How would you go about banning him? What would you base the ban on? Maybe while you’re at it you can jail Hillary Clinton for NOT breaking any laws.

    • Richard Douglas

      Nov 3, 2018 at 2:56 pm

      Really? Worst ever? Worse than Ken Green? Mac O’Grady? Tommy Bolt? Tom Weiskopf?

      Yes, you’re wrong.

  15. tim

    Nov 2, 2018 at 11:47 am

    Why doesn’t the PGA Tour just make a tour-only rule that overrides the USGA?

    • Bill

      Nov 2, 2018 at 11:51 am

      Gianni:

      Before being critical of Dechambeau playing practices, you need to win 4 times on the PGA tour.

    • Curt

      Nov 2, 2018 at 11:54 am

      Should have all kinds of tour only rules since it’s where rules matter.

    • J Zilla

      Nov 2, 2018 at 12:42 pm

      Because the tour has no control over the majors or WGC (I think) and it probably wouldn’t be a good look to have separate rules on tour vs the biggest events.

    • Scheiss

      Nov 3, 2018 at 2:35 am

      They already do have separate rules on Tour. They cut the rough down way shorter, and make it easier for Eldrick to win by allowing him to play courses he likes and avoid the ones he doesn’t.

      • DougE

        Nov 3, 2018 at 10:18 am

        Really? Wait, so only Tiger benefits from shorter rough and can choose to play the courses he wants? Wow, all this time I thought he was just a better player than those other guys. Stupid me. Thanks for clarifying how the rules work Scheiss-ter.

      • AggOwl

        Nov 5, 2018 at 7:49 am

        Eldrick & Alfred both!

  16. HDTVMAN

    Nov 2, 2018 at 11:44 am

    I am really getting sick of this guy!

    • David C

      Nov 2, 2018 at 12:10 pm

      I love it. Every bit of it EXCEPT his slow play, put him ON THE CLOCK. It’s fine to play by the rules, even if they benefit a player, but all rules should be enforced.

  17. David Lehmann

    Nov 2, 2018 at 10:17 am

    Leave the flag in and sink a putt…. be careful pulling the flag to get your ball. Sometimes the cup will come out also.!!!

  18. Henry Adam

    Nov 2, 2018 at 10:02 am

    Some time ago, an experiment was conducted with an “iron Byron” putting and chipping machine, which showed very clearly that the ball found the bottom of the cup more often with the pin in than with it out.

    Other than the CoR of the flagstick itself, many are now tapered, getting thinner at the base, thus directing a ball which strikes it downwards.

    Now in my 70’s I remember well playing with the British sized ball (1.62″), prior to the rule change (in the 1970’s) enforcing the use of the larger (American)1.68″ version. Apart from immediately losing distance, there was a noticeable increase in “lip-outs”. This was due in part to larger size, but the effect of increased angular momentum as a ball rolled at given horizontal velocity to the hole. Horseshoe misses increased where the ball appeared to be dropping but managed to climb out again. The Welsh Ryder Cup player, Brian Huggett, appealed to the R&A to increase the size of the hole from its 4.25″ internal diameter to 4.5″, arguing that the rewards of hitting approach shots close were no longer as good. He was ignored. Now, the ball has changed again, with the construction such that the weight distribution is less at the centre and more evenly distributed out to the cover. We have gone from the would balls with a dense sack in the centre to a more uniform construction. This gives more rolling angular momentum and hence the ball rolls further on landing, especially on manicured fairways. There is also the further increase in lip-outs on the green. The hole diameter, arbitrarily based on the outside diameters of drain pipes in Eastern Scotland in the late 1800’s remains at 4.25″, but the saving grace is that modern greens are nothing like those of even 50 years ago, being much smoother, faster and truer.

    • Henry Adam

      Nov 2, 2018 at 10:06 am

      “This was due in part to larger size, but the effect…” should read “This was due in part to larger size, but also the effect…” and “We have gone from the would balls with a dense sack in the centre..” should read “We have gone from the wound balls with a dense sack in the centre..”

      We do not seem able to edit after posting..

    • Victor Sterner

      Nov 2, 2018 at 3:50 pm

      I believe Pelz did a study and it is the golfers advantage to leave in the pin whenever possible.

  19. Seth Mischke

    Nov 1, 2018 at 10:10 pm

    Flabbergasted…………Look at Zach Johnson, John Deere Classic from a few years back. Flagstick cost him the tourney on the 18th. The boys in the booth were like leave it in, it is stupid to take it out, and I was like Nooooooooooo. THE perfect example of why not to leave it in if you ask me.

  20. Mike

    Nov 1, 2018 at 9:12 pm

    Dave Pelz studied this and has concluded that leaving the flagstick in is an avvantage on ALL shots including a 4 foot putt. Therefore it would be stupid for anyone playing for millions of dollars to ever putt with it out again.

  21. TeeBone

    Nov 1, 2018 at 8:14 pm

    The flagstick might stop a ball that would finish well past, but will generally keep some balls out that might have gone in without the flagstick, regardless of the flexibility of the stick. Prediction: Bryson will do this until he hits a putt that he felt should have gone in, but hit the stick and didn’t. Then he’ll stop.

    • Johnny Penso

      Nov 1, 2018 at 11:30 pm

      Do you realize the irony of suggesting DeChambeau will make his decision as to whether to leave the stick in or not based on a whim or a single bad result? ???? ???? ???? ???? ????

  22. Scheiss

    Nov 1, 2018 at 7:14 pm

    I think you should also measure the CT, the characteristic time. Might as well. Then you can use a foam marshmallow ball to make sure it goes in as it hugs the stick on its slide down into the cup

  23. hans

    Nov 1, 2018 at 7:07 pm

    maybe the usga woulda been better off making this a local rule option, like the new 2 stroke penalty OB rule. don’t wanna see caddies on tv constantly shuffling to get the pin in/out depending on the player.

    • Scheiss

      Nov 1, 2018 at 7:17 pm

      Aha! You have hit it on the head.
      See, the USGA didn’t think of that when they thought this rule would quicken the pace at the local muni level. They didn’t think that in a 4some, some might leave it in, and others not, and this pulling out and pulling in depending on who’s playing might now make the round take longer to play, especially if the last guy putting always wants it out.
      It’ll be a circus to see the caddies hand it off to each other and ask around who’s leaving it in and who’s not and when it needs to be left in and not, and more traffic around the cup.

      • Ty Web

        Nov 1, 2018 at 7:38 pm

        These two comments right here. I fully expect to see this one changed somehow within a year.

      • Marco

        Nov 1, 2018 at 11:11 pm

        Not to mention how annoying it will be when you are waiting to hit into a green and you see the flag going in and out over and over again.

        • Acemandrake

          Nov 2, 2018 at 11:58 am

          Exactly! Your scenario sounds like “non-ready” golf as the player waiting in the fairway has to observe & wait for the correct time to begin their pre-shot routine.

      • Boyo

        Nov 2, 2018 at 9:12 am

        Right on! I’ve been saying this since I heard of this stupid rule….

  24. Allen Wilson

    Nov 1, 2018 at 6:55 pm

    Back in the days of balata balls, we all floated them in Epsom salt water to see if the CG was actually in the physical middle of the ball.

    • BIG STU

      Nov 2, 2018 at 1:18 pm

      Allen Very true and we also carried a gauge to check to see if the ball was still round after a few holes. In fact I still have mine still attached to my old Ping Staff bag

  25. Brandon

    Nov 1, 2018 at 6:30 pm

    Putting with the flag in is like nails on a chalk board to me. I cant stand it when people do this. I know its not rational but I cant even leave the little flags on the practice putting green in.

    • Charlie

      Nov 1, 2018 at 11:09 pm

      And 90% of those players don’t put the little flags back in. Nails on the chalkboard…

      • Boyo

        Nov 2, 2018 at 9:14 am

        What about us old men who don’t like bending over to fetch balls on a putting green?

        • CaoNiMa

          Nov 2, 2018 at 10:55 am

          You can’t bend over to get the ball? Don’t play golf. I bet you’re not going to be able to drop the ball from knee height either

          • Steven Meyers

            Nov 2, 2018 at 2:19 pm

            Pretty douchey thing to say to somebody. If you get lucky, maybe you will live long enough to get a bad back.

          • Sid

            Nov 2, 2018 at 2:38 pm

            If you were in my foursome you would be providing us with another hole to stick the flag pole in!

        • Thomas A

          Nov 2, 2018 at 11:01 am

          Get a Fetch putter from Ping!

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Morning 9: Tiger confirms playing schedule | Player: This caused Tiger’s downfall

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By Ben Alberstadt with Gianni Magliocco.

For comments: [email protected]

Good Thursday morning, golf fans, as day one of the CJ Cup Byron Nelson gets underway.

1. Woods confirms he plans to play 1x monthly, remaining 3 majors

ESPN report…”Woods, appearing on the “Today” show Wednesday morning, said he is still following the calendar he mapped out before the season began. But physical limitations continue to give the 15-time major winner pause.”

  • “He completed the Masters last month but requires a “cold plunge every day, religiously” to get his body going and was “extremely sore” when he left Augusta National. Woods shot a 16-over 304 at the Masters and finished last among the 60 golfers who made the 36-hole cut.”
  • “I have basically the next three months — three majors — and hopefully that works out,” said Woods, who last won a major in 2019.
  • “Up next is the PGA Championship at Valhalla in two weeks. The U.S. Open at Pinehurst No. 2 begins June 13, and the Open Championship at Royal Troon in Scotland begins July 18. Woods has not played all four majors in a year since 2019.”
Full piece.

2. Tiger on origin of red-and-black Sunday outfit

Ben Morse for CNN…”…speaking on Tuesday’s edition of ‘The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon,’ the 48-year-old said his mother Kultida was key to him wearing the now-iconic red and black combination.”

  • “My mom thought, being a Capricorn, that [red] was my power color, or some BS thing like that, so I end up wearing red and end up winning some golf tournaments,” the 15-time major winner told Fallon. “And then to spite her, I wore blue, and I did not win those tournaments. So Mom is always right.”
  • “Woods’ mother was clearly was onto something as her son would go onto win a record-equaling 82 PGA Tour tournaments.”
Full piece.

3. Gary Player’s take on Tiger’s downfall

Our Matt Vincenzi…”While speaking with KW Golf, golf legend Gary Player said that he believes swing coaches ruined the career of Tiger Woods.”

  • “The US Open at Pebble Beach, he won by 15 shots. You know what that’s like? It’s like running the 100 meters in seven seconds. The next week, he’s having a lesson from a man who, I don’t think, if he played in the Masters, could break 80.”
  • “And then he goes to another guy who couldn’t probably break 85 in the Masters with the pressure, or the British Open or the PGA on the final day. And he’s having lessons from them.”
  • “Why did Tiger do that? He was so good, but I understand he wanted to get better,” Player went on. “If he had just gone along and never changed, he would have won at least 22.. He would’ve gone down as the greatest athlete the world has ever seen.”
  • In 2008, Woods had won 14 majors and was 33 years old. It would take him eleven years to win his 15th at the 2019 Masters.
Full piece.

4. Open winner: I used to hate links golf

Peter Scrivener for the BBC…”However, he did recall his chastening links golf baptism at neighbouring Prestwick, which hosted the inaugural Open in 1860.”

  • “The first time I played links golf I hated it – it ate me to pieces,” said the 37-year-old, who lost all four of his matches as Europe thrashed the United States in the 2006 Palmer Cup.
  • “I kept trying to hit lob wedges around the greens and the weather was bad. I got whipped, lost all of my matches.”
Full piece.

5. Why Tiger’s daughter doesn’t like golf

Our Matt Vincenzi…”While Tiger Woods’ son, Charlie, has certainly inherited his father’s love for golf, his daughter, Sam, has not.”

  • “On Wednesday, Tiger made an appearance on The Today Show with Carson Daly and explained his daughter’s relationship with golf.”
  • “Golf has negative connotations for her. When she was growing up, golf took daddy away from her. I had to pack, I had to leave, and I was gone for weeks. So, there were negative connotations to it.
  • “We developed our own relationship and our own rapport outside of golf. We do things that doesn’t involve golf. Meanwhile, my son and I, everything we do is golf related.”
Full piece.

6. Spieth hits ‘reset button’

Mark Schlabach for ESPN…”PGA Tour star Jordan Spieth isn’t happy that he’s not playing as well as his longtime friend Scottie Scheffler, but he’s hoping to use the world No. 1 golfer’s success as inspiration.”

  • “Spieth, a three-time major championship winner, said he used last week as a reset after a so-so start to the 2024 season. He has three top-10 finishes in 10 starts but had a disqualification and three missed cuts, including at The Players and Masters, in his past seven.”
  • “He is hoping to turn things around, starting at The CJ Cup Bryon Nelson, which tees off Thursday at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas.”
  • “I think I kind of wanted to hit the reset button this last week and I took more days off than I usually do,” Spieth told reporters Wednesday. “Got a little burned out trying to find stuff. I wanted to take some time off, clear my mind, and then get back to it.
  • “… Kind of looking at this as kind of a restart. I haven’t had the year I wanted to have after getting off to a pretty optimistic start in Hawaii. I feel really good about the work I put in since the weekend into the few days this week, so I believe that I’m really close to some great things.”
Full piece.

7. Photos from the CJ Cup Byron Nelson

  • Check out all of our galleries from this week’s event!
Full Piece.
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Tour Photo Galleries

Photos from the 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson

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GolfWRX is on site this week in McKinney, Texas, at the 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson (FKA the AT&T Byron Nelson).

Last year at TPC Craig Ranch, Jason Day ended a five-year winless streak. J-Day is in the field again, as are Jordan Spieth, Tom Kim, and Will Zalatoris.

We have our usual assortment of general galleries, WITBs, and pullout albums for your perusal. As always, we’ll continue to add links to additional albums as they make their way to us from the Lone Star State.

Check out links to all our photos below.

General Albums

WITB Albums

Pullout Albums

See what GolfWRXers are saying in the forums.

 

 

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Vincenzi’s 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson betting preview: International talent to shine

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As anticipation mounts for the 2024 PGA Championship at Valhalla in a few weeks, the PGA Tour makes a pit stop in McKinney, Texas to play The CJ CUP Byron Nelson. 

Last year was the third time TPC Craig Ranch hosted the Byron Nelson. Prior to 2021, the event was held at Trinity Forest Golf Club in Dallas.

TPC Craig Ranch is a 7,414-yard par-71 that features Bentgrass greens. The event historically plays relatively easy, and that has remained the case in the three editions at TPC Craig Ranch.

The course structure may provide some additional intrigue with the par-3 17th featuring a stadium setup called “Ranch 17” which is reminiscent of the 16th hole at TPC Scottsdale. The course also has both long and difficult par-4s mixed with drivable par-4s, which should create some exciting moments.

There are 156 golfers in the field this week, and many stars will be taking the week off to prepare for 2023’s second major championship in a few weeks and a “signature event” at Quail Hollow next week. Notable players in the field include Jordan Spieth, Jason Day, Sungjae Im, Stephan Jaeger, Tom Kim, Si Woo Kim, Min Woo Lee, Alex Noren, Adam Scott and Will Zalatoris. 

Past Winners of the AT&T Byron Nelson

  • 2023: Jason Day (-23 at TPC Craig Ranch)
  • 2022: K.H. Lee (-26 at TPC Craig Ranch)
  • 2021: K.H. Lee (-25 at TPC Craig Ranch)
  • 2019: Sung Kang (-23)
  • 2018: Aaron Wise (-23)
  • 2017: Billy Horschel (-12)
  • 2016: Sergio Garcia (-15)
  • 2015: Steven Bowditch (-18)

Key Stats at TPC Craig Ranch

Let’s take a look at five key metrics for TPC Craig Ranch to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach remains the best measure of current form.

Hot iron play will be at a premium this week. Last year, Jason Day gained 6.4 strokes on approach, which was fourth in the field. In 2022, K.H. Lee was ninth in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining 5.2 strokes. In his 2021 victory, he was second in the field and gained 8.3 strokes on the field in the category.

Strokes Gaines: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.12)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.02)
  3. Henrik Norlander (+0.99)
  4. Ryan Moore (+0.98)
  5. Ben Martin (0.80)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Fairways are wide at TPC Craig Ranch.

Distance will certainly be helpful, and there aren’t too many difficult holes on the course. Golfers who put themselves in position off of the tee this week should have a sizable advantage.

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Peter Kuest (+0.93)
  2. Kevin Daugherty (+0.91)
  3. Alejandro Tosti (+0.83)
  4. Keith Mitchell (+0.82)
  5. Kevin Tway (+0.74)

Birdie or Better %

There aren’t many hazards on the course, and all of the par-5s should be reachable in two for the majority of the players in the field. I am anticipating a birdie fest, and this statistic should be helpful in finding the birdie-makers.

Birdie or Better % Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Wesley Bryan (31%)
  2. Kelly Kraft (26.2%)
  3. Peter Kuest (25.9%)
  4. Matti Schmid (25.7%
  5. Jimmy Stanger (25.2%)

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)

Many golfers on TOUR have some major putting surface variance in their statistics and prefer Bentgrass to other surfaces.

Bentgrass is common in Texas, and we often see golfers who play well in Texas continue to do so, finding a great feel around the greens.

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass) Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Maverick McNealy (+0.92)
  2. Aaron Baddeley (+0.87)
  3. Callum Tarren (+0.86)
  4. Harry Hall (+0.81)
  5. Nick Hardy (+0.69)

Course History

This statistic will tell us which players have performed the best at TPC Craig Ranch over the past three seasons.

Course History Over Past 12 Rounds:

  1. Jordan Spieth (+2.69)
  2. K.H. Lee (+2.59)
  3. Seamus Power (+1.84)
  4. Ryan Palmer (+1.76)
  5. Adam Scott (+1.72)

CJ CUP Byron Nelson Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: OTT (24%), Birdie or Better % (18%), Course History (17%) and SG: Putting Bentgrass (16%).

  1. Alex Noren
  2. Adam Scott
  3. Keith Mitchell
  4. Si Woo Kim
  5. Stephen Jaeger
  6. Jordan Spieth
  7. Jhonnatan Vegas
  8. Nate Lashley
  9. Brice Garnett
  10. Tom Hoge

2024 CJ CUP Byron Nelson Picks

Byeong Hun An +3000 (DraftKings)

Byeong Hun put together an excellent performance at The Masters, finishing T16, which ties his best ever finish at a major championship (also T16 at 2019 U.S. Open). The South Korean gained 9.16 strokes from tee to green, which ranked 2nd in the field behind only the champion, Scottie Scheffler.

An’s next start at Harbour Town didn’t go as well (67th), but he still had a fantastic ball striking week. The 32-year-old bled strokes both around and on the greens, which was his eventual undoing. In his past three starts, An has gained significant strokes on the field both off the tee and on approach.

Benny had a strong start at last year’s Byron Nelson, finishing in a tie for 14th. With limited challenges on the course, he shouldn’t have to do much scrambling. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 17th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 17th in the field in birdie or better percentage. The putter is up and down per usual, but his ceiling putting weeks with his LAB Golf putter in 2024 are higher than they’ve been in past seasons.

An is starting to become my “white whale” of the PGA Tour, but I believe in his talent and TPC Craig Ranch is a course that should suit his excellent tee to green play.

Mackenzie Hughes +5500 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes is quietly putting together a very good season. He finished in a tie for 3rd at the Valspar Championship and followed that up with a T14 at the Texas Children’s Houston Open.

In his past 36 rounds in Texas, the Canadian ranks 5th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total. Last year, he finished in a tie for 14th at this event and gained strokes putting and off the tee. Mackenzie played well that week despite being in extremely poor form. He missed two cuts in a row prior to the event, and four consecutive cuts immediately after. His irons were off that week, but in 2024, we’ve seen an improvement in Hughes’ approach game. He now comes to the event playing some steady golf. He’s gained strokes on approach in four of his past five events and is hitting the ball very well from tee to green.

Hughes has two victories on the PGA Tour, both coming in relatively low-scoring affairs (-17 in each). He will need to go a bit deeper to win the CJ Cup Byron Nelson but has the type of putter that can keep pace in a birdie barrage.

Seamus Power +7000 (FanDuel)

After struggling over the past few seasons with injuries, Seamus Power seems as if he is rounding back into the form that made him a really consistent player on the PGA Tour.

Power finished T12 in his most recent start at the RBC Heritage, which is encouraging considering it was a “signature event” with a very strong field. For the week, the Irishman gained 4.4 strokes on approach and 2.8 strokes putting, which is the combination he’s used in the past to contend on Tour.

In his three trips to TPC Craig Ranch, Power is yet to finish outside of the top-20, with his best finish being a T9 in 2019. He ranks 4th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course. The 37-year-old thrives on easy tracks and has won in 2021 (Barbasol Championship) and 2022 (Butterfield Bermuda) on easier layouts with weaker fields.

Power has the game to go extremely low and I believe he can get back in the winner’s circle for the third time in four years.

Chan Kim +10000 (FanDuel)

Chan Kim has been striking the ball beautifully this season and is a proven winner with two wins on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2023 as well as eight career Japan Tour wins.

At last week’s Zurich Classic, Kim and his partner Doug Ghim finished in a tie for 28th. Prior to that, the South Korean T14 at the Valero Texas Open and T6 at the Corales Puntacana Championship. His success this season in Texas as well as he propensity to play his best golf on the PGA Tour’s easier courses make him and ideal fit for TPC Craig Ranch.

2024 has given plenty of longshot winners on the PGA Tour, and with a birdie fest like this, I believe there’s a strong chance we get another this week in McKinney, Texas.

Alejandro Tosti +10000 (FanDuel)

Alejandro Tosti is one of the most polarizing players on the PGA Tour thus far in the 2024 season. His antics can rub many the wrong way, but he’s shown on a few occasions that he has what it takes to compete in Tour events.

This season, Tosti has been elite off the tee. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 2nd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. The Argentine hits it long and straight, which works at any course on earth. He got a taste of contention a few starts ago at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, finishing in a tie for 2nd place.

Tosti had a fantastic year in 2023 on the Korn Ferry Tour, where going low is a prerequisite to success. If this turns to a shootout, which it likely will, the 27-year-old has the ability to set the pace. Tosti will look to become the second Argentine to win in Texas in the past two seasons after Emiliano Grillo emerged victorious at last year’s Charles Schwab Challenge.

C.T. Pan +15000 (FanDuel)

Outside of a T3 at the Mexico Open, C.T. Pan doesn’t have strong results this season in terms of finishes. However, over his past two starts, Pan’s iron play has come alive. At The Players, he gained 6.6 strokes on approach. At the Valero Texas Open, he gained 3.7. At last week’s Zurich Classic, Pan and his partner Kevin Yu finished T28. For a player who can get extremely hot with his scoring clubs, I believe he’s playing better than the results have shown over the past month or so.

Last season, Pan finished 4th at TPC Craig Ranch and was spectacular across all the major stat categories. In his past 36 qualifying rounds, he ranks 16th in Strokes Gained: Total in Texas.

Pan has won on the PGA Tour at the RBC Heritage and is always a player that I believe has what it takes to win on a Sunday if he finds himself in contention.

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