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PGA Tour Players on the Rise and Decline heading into 2019

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At the end of each season, I compile data on every PGA Tour player and then analyze which players are on the rise and the decline for the upcoming season. There are a number of variables that are historically quality indicators of a golfer’s future performance such as age, club speed, adjusted scoring average, etc. I tend to focus on what I call The Cornerstones of the Game, however, and these Cornerstones include:

• Driving Effectiveness
• Red Zone Play (approach shots from 175-225 yards)
• Short Game shots (from 10-20 yards)
• Putting (5-15 feet)
• Ball Speed

All that is needed to execute the Cornerstones of the Game is for the player to be in the top-half on the PGA Tour in each metric. That’s the beauty of the concept; a player does not need to be dominant in each metric. He can simply be average at each metric and it increases his likelihood of not only having a great season, but recording a PGA Tour victory. I can then use the Cornerstones concept to more accurately project players on the rise for the following season.

This past season there were 10 players that reached The 5 Cornerstones of the Game and they made an average of $4.2 million on the season. Given their success, I focused my analysis more on players that narrowly missed The 5 Cornerstones and their metrics to determine what players will be ‘on the rise.’

PLAYERS ON THE RISE

*The following rankings are based out of 193 players

Daniel Berger

Normally, The Players on the Rise is reserved for lesser known Tour players. Berger had a solid season, but it was considered a disappointment as he only had one top-10 finish (T6 at the U.S. Open).

But, Berger executed The 5 Cornerstones of the Game and overall his skill metrics are impressive. The main concerns is that his driving distance declined as it appears he’s hitting with a more downward attack angle than in the past and he ranked 191st on shots from the greenside bunker. But if those issues get resolved he’s on pace to get back into the winner’s circle, very soon.

Brandon Harkins

Harkins recorded three top-10’s last season, but showed a quality all-around game except for his Short Game around the green. However, that is a smaller priority. He is quite long off the tee and effective overall with the driver. He was also a very good Red Zone performer and showed the ability to putt well. He only missed The 5 Cornerstones of the Game due to his short game performance, but that is far lesser on the scale of importance when it comes to success on Tour.

Keith Mitchell

Mitchell missed The 5 Cornerstones due to his putting. However, there is a correlation on Tour between driving distance and the length of the average birdie putt. Meaning, the longer a Tour player hits the ball they will likely have a shorter average length birdie putt. Thus, the longer hitter can be less skillful with the flatstick and still make more putts because they are hitting putts from a closer distance which normally are easier to make. Therefore, the data is not overly worried about Mitchell’s putting woes. And in general, it’s common for bombers to struggle badly with their putting in their rookie season.

JT Poston

Poston only missed The 5 Cornerstones due to his play from 10-20 yards. But he showed that he was a quality driver and putter of the ball while being an elite Red Zone performer. Historically, players like Poston that drive it well and excel from the Red Zone while having quality ball speed tend to improve dramatically from the Yellow Zone in the following seasons. And that means making a lot more birdies while avoiding bogeys.

Cameron Champ

Champ is coming from the Web.com Tour, so he doesn’t have any stats yet to share. But there is no substitute for pure, unadulterated power on Tour. And Champ has it by the bushels full. His Club Speed at the Safeway Open was recorded at 129.6 mph and he was No. 1 in Driving Effectiveness for the event.

Historically, the bombers that arrive on Tour struggle from the Red Zone and with their short game and putting early on. If Champ can perform reasonably well in those areas he could have an immediate impact on the Tour this season.

PLAYERS ON THE DECLINE

Jason Dufner

Age (40) works against Dufner. He was a very good driver of the ball with respectable distance off the tee. It appears that he has made some alterations in his swing to produce an upward attack angle with the driver in order to gain more distance as he gets older. Players near Dufner’s age that have made similar attack angle changes have suffered from a similar consequence; their iron play declines dramatically.

This is also about the age when a Tour player’s putting starts to decline and that would leave a profile of a player that drives it well and is respectable around the green, but has struggles on approach shots and putting. That means fewer birdies on a Tour that is becoming more birdie-happy.

Si Woo Kim

The former Players Championship winner benefited from the schedule that comes along with winning at Sawgrass. He finished 153rd in Adjusted Scoring Average, but still finished the year 34th in FedEx Cup points.

Kim doesn’t do anything that well outside of his short game. His putting performances are often downright bizarre. Such as the lead he had at Harbour Town where he was on fire and then missed four short putts in a row to blow the lead. As much as being long and a good putter works well on Tour, short and yippy putting doesn’t work on Tour.

Kevin Kisner

Kisner was a popular candidate for a Ryder Cup Captain’s pick, but the numbers suggested otherwise. He wasn’t the accurate driver that they were looking for. And his iron play was horrendous and his short game around the green was not much better. He did rank 13th in Putts Gained, but some of that came from the benefit of putting well outside 15-feet and over time that will regress towards the mean. Thus his strength will not likely be as strong as it was this season.

Matt Kuchar

Kuchar’s age (40) is starting to show up in his lack of distance off the tee and his regression in Red Zone play. He still puts up quality numbers, but he’s more likely to see a regression in his putting.

These are still numbers that can have successful seasons on Tour and maybe get a victory, but as far as competing in the bigger events (except for Sawgrass) it appears that Kuchar’s days may be over.

Brendan Steele

Steele benefited from a schedule where there was a lot of FedEx points given out due to him winning the Safeway Open in 2016 and 2017. And the good news is that he’s still an excellent driver of the ball that hits it a long ways with very good accuracy. However, his iron play and putting were a real struggle for him last year and there’s no signs of his putting improving anytime soon. Despite ‘owning’ Silverado Country Club, he finished T53 and it’s just another indication of a decline in his play.

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Richie Hunt is a statistician whose clients include PGA Tour players, their caddies and instructors in order to more accurately assess their games. He is also the author of the recently published e-book, 2018 Pro Golf Synopsis; the Moneyball Approach to the Game of Golf. He can be reached at [email protected] or on Twitter @Richie3Jack. GolfWRX Writer of the Month: March 2014 Purchase 2017 Pro Golf Synopsis E-book for $10

8 Comments

8 Comments

  1. Mr. Freeze

    Oct 10, 2018 at 4:57 pm

    Who were the 10 that hit all 5 Cornerstones?

  2. Mr. 1488

    Oct 10, 2018 at 1:23 pm

    Speaking of age, its about time you change that picture Richie. Its from 20 plus years ago. You’re now a middle aged man, not a 17 year old kid.

  3. Zander Cage

    Oct 9, 2018 at 9:01 pm

    Good stuff Rich! I always enjoy reading this column.

    Who were some of the guys who just missed the 5 cornerstones to look out for?

  4. Point Misser

    Oct 9, 2018 at 6:57 pm

    Player on the rise: Tiger Woods

  5. Reznor

    Oct 9, 2018 at 2:25 pm

    Am I understanding that you aren’t using any kind of comparison base? So even though Berger had a horrible year compared to his 3 previous seasons, and battled an injury, his stock is on the rise based on a single year’s snapshot of static metrics? I would agree that it is unlikely for someone so young and talented to have 2 consecutive years of such poor performance, but I can’t wrap my head around how after his worst year on tour, and using no more than the stats from that worst year, you can postulate that his stock is on the rise.

    • DarthBlader

      Oct 9, 2018 at 5:28 pm

      Its all relative. Doesn’t mean he is going to win the Masters.

      • Matt

        Oct 10, 2018 at 9:53 am

        This you’re missing his rather simple point. He had a poor year compared to his previous performances… so why is that “on the rise?”

        • truth

          Oct 10, 2018 at 8:12 pm

          You realize there is more likelihood to be on the rise from the bottom right?

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s LIV Golf Singapore betting preview: Course specialist ready to thrive once again

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After another strong showing in Australia, LIV Golf will head to Sentosa Golf Club in Singapore looking to build off of what was undoubtedly their best event to date.

Sentosa Golf Club sits on the southern tip of Singapore and is one of the most beautiful courses in the world. The course is more than just incredible scenically; it was also rated 55th in Golf Digest’s top-100 courses in 2022-2023 and has been consistently regarded as one of the best courses in Asia. Prior to being part of the LIV rotation, the course hosted the Singapore Open every year since 2005.

Sentosa Golf Club is a par 71 measuring 7,406 yards. The course will require precise ball striking and some length off the tee. It’s possible to go low due to the pristine conditions, but there are also plenty of hazards and difficult spots on the course that can bring double bogey into play in a hurry. The Bermudagrass greens are perfectly manicured, and the course has spent millions on the sub-air system to keep the greens rolling fast. I spoke to Asian Tour player, Travis Smyth, who described the greens as “the best [he’s] ever played.”

Davis Love III, who competed in a Singapore Open in 2019, also gushed over the condition of the golf course.

“I love the greens. They are fabulous,” the 21-time PGA Tour winner said.

Love III also spoke about other aspects of the golf course.

“The greens are great; the fairways are perfect. It is a wonderful course, and it’s tricky off the tee.”

“It’s a long golf course, and you get some long iron shots. It takes somebody hitting it great to hit every green even though they are big.”

As Love III said, the course can be difficult off the tee due to the length of the course and the trouble looming around every corner. It will take a terrific ball striking week to win at Sentosa Golf Club.

In his pre-tournament press conference last season, Phil Mickelson echoed many of the same sentiments.

“To play Sentosa effectively, you’re going to have a lot of shots from 160 to 210, a lot of full 6-, 7-, 8-iron shots, and you need to hit those really well and you need to drive the ball well.”

Golfers who excel from tee to green and can dial in their longer irons will have a massive advantage this week.

Stat Leaders at LIV Golf Adelaide:

Fairways Hit

1.) Louis Oosthuizen

2.) Anirban Lahiri

3.) Jon Rahm

4.) Brendan Steele

5.) Cameron Tringale

Greens in Regulation

1.) Brooks Koepka

2.) Brendan Steele

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Cameron Tringale

5.) Anirban Lahiri

Birdies Made

1.) Brendan Steele

2.) Dean Burmester

3.) Thomas Pieters

4.) Patrick Reed

5.) Carlos Ortiz

LIV Golf Individual Standings:

1.) Joaquin Niemann

2.) Jon Rahm

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Louis Oosthuizen

5.) Abraham Ancer

LIV Golf Team Standings:

1.) Crushers

2.) Legion XIII

3.) Torque

4.) Stinger GC

5.) Ripper GC

LIV Golf Singapore Picks

Sergio Garcia +3000 (DraftKings)

Sergio Garcia is no stranger to Sentosa Golf Club. The Spaniard won the Singapore Open in 2018 by five strokes and lost in a playoff at LIV Singapore last year to scorching hot Talor Gooch. Looking at the course setup, it’s no surprise that a player like Sergio has played incredible golf here. He’s long off the tee and is one of the better long iron players in the world when he’s in form. Garcia is also statistically a much better putter on Bermudagrass than he is on other putting surfaces. He’s putt extremely well on Sentosa’s incredibly pure green complexes.

This season, Garcia has two runner-up finishes, both of them being playoff losses. Both El Camaleon and Doral are courses he’s had success at in his career. The Spaniard is a player who plays well at his tracks, and Sentosa is one of them. I believe Sergio will get himself in the mix this week. Hopefully the third time is a charm in Singapore.

Paul Casey +3300 (FanDuel)

Paul Casey is in the midst of one of his best seasons in the five years or so. The results recently have been up and down, but he’s shown that when he’s on a golf course that suits his game, he’s amongst the contenders.

This season, Casey has finishes of T5 (LIV Las Vegas), T2 (LIV Hong Kong), and a 6th at the Singapore Classic on the DP World Tour. At his best, the Englishman is one of the best long iron players in the world, which makes him a strong fit for Sentosa. Despite being in poor form last season, he was able to fire a Sunday 63, which shows he can low here at the course.

It’s been three years since Casey has won a tournament (Omega Dubai Desert Classic in 2021), but he’s been one of the top players on LIV this season and I think he can get it done at some point this season.

Mito Pereira +5000 (Bet365)

Since Mito Pereira’s unfortunate demise at the 2022 PGA Championship, he’s been extremely inconsistent. However, over the past few months, the Chilean has played well on the International Series as well as his most recent LIV start. Mito finished 8th at LIV Adelaide, which was his best LIV finish this season.

Last year, Pereira finished 5th at LIV Singapore, shooting fantastic rounds of 67-66-66. It makes sense why Mito would like Sentosa, as preeminent ball strikers tend to rise to the challenge of the golf course. He’s a great long iron player who is long and straight off the tee.

Mito has some experience playing in Asia and is one of the most talented players on LIV who’s yet to get in the winner’s circle. I have questions about whether or not he can come through once in contention, but if he gets there, I’m happy to roll the dice.

Andy Ogletree +15000 (DraftKings)

Andy Ogletree is a player I expected to have a strong 2024 but struggled early in his first full season on LIV. After failing to crack the top-25 in any LIV event this year, the former U.S. Amateur champion finally figured things out, finished in a tie for 3rd at LIV Adelaide.

Ogletree should be incredible comfortable playing in Singapore. He won the International Series Qatar last year and finished T3 at the International Series Singapore. The 26-year-old was arguably the best player on the Asian Tour in 2023 and has been fantastic in the continent over the past 18 months.

If Ogletree has indeed found form, he looks to be an amazing value at triple-digit odds.

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Lessons from the worst golf instructor in America

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In Tampa, there is a golf course that boasts carts that do not work, a water range, and a group of players none of which have any chance to break 80. The course is overseen by a staff of crusty men who have succeeded at nothing in life but ending up at the worst-run course in America. However, this place is no failure. With several other local courses going out of business — and boasting outstanding greens — the place is booked full.

While I came for the great greens, I stayed to watch our resident instructor; a poor-tempered, method teacher who caters to the hopeless. At first, it was simply hilarious. However, after months of listening and watching, something clicked. I realized I had a front-row seat to the worst golf instructor in America.

Here are some of my key takeaways.

Method Teacher

It is widely accepted that there are three types of golf instructors: system teachers, non-system teachers, and method teachers. Method teachers prescribe the same antidote for each student based on a preamble which teachers can learn in a couple day certification.

Method teaching allows anyone to be certified. This process caters to the lowest caliber instructor, creating the illusion of competency. This empowers these underqualified instructors with the moniker of “certified” to prey on the innocent and uninformed.

The Cult of Stack and Jilt

The Stack and Tilt website proudly boasts, “A golfer swings his hands inward in the backswing as opposed to straight back to 1) create power, similar to a field goal kicker moving his leg in an arc and 2) to promote a swing that is in-to-out, which produces a draw (and eliminates a slice).”

Now, let me tell you something, there is this law of the universe which says “energy can either be created or destroyed,” so either these guys are defying physics or they have no idea what they are taking about. Further, the idea that the first move of the backswing determines impact is conjecture with a splash of utter fantasy.

These are the pontifications of a method — a set of prescriptions applied to everyone with the hope of some success through the placebo effect. It is one thing for a naive student to believe, for a golf instructor to drink and then dispel this Kool-Aid is malpractice.

Fooled by Randomness

In flipping a coin, or even a March Madness bet, there is a 50-50 chance of success. In golf, especially for new players, results are asymmetric. Simply put: Anything can happen. The problem is that when bad instructors work with high handicappers, each and every shot gets its own diagnosis and prescription. Soon the student is overwhelmed.

Now here’s the sinister thing: The overwhelming information is by design. In this case, the coach is not trying to make you better, they are trying to make you reliant on them for information. A quasi Stockholm syndrome of codependency.

Practice

One of the most important scientists of the 20th century was Ivan Pavlov. As you might recall, he found that animals, including humans, could be conditioned into biological responses. In golf, the idea of practice has made millions of hackers salivate that they are one lesson or practice session from “the secret.”

Sunk Cost

The idea for the worst golf instructor is to create control and dependency so that clients ignore the sunk cost of not getting better. Instead, they are held hostage by the idea that they are one lesson or tip away from unlocking their potential.

Cliches

Cliches have the effect of terminating thoughts. However, they are the weapon of choice for this instructor. Add some hyperbole and students actually get no information. As a result, these players couldn’t play golf. When they did, they had no real scheme. With no idea what they are doing, they would descend into a spiral of no idea what to do, bad results, lower confidence, and running back to the lesson tee from more cliches.

The fact is that poor instruction is about conditioning players to become reliant members of your cult. To take away autonomy. To use practice as a form of control. To sell more golf lessons not by making people better but through the guise that without the teacher, the student can never reach their full potential. All under the umbrella of being “certified” (in a 2-day course!) and a melee of cliches.

This of course is not just happening at my muni but is a systemic problem around the country and around the world, the consequences of which are giving people a great reason to stop playing golf. But hey, at least it’s selling a lot of golf balls…

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

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The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

  • 2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
  • 2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
  • 2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
  • 2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
  • 2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
  • 2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

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