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5 Things We Learned on Saturday of the 2018 PGA Championship
Round 3 has concluded at Bellerive, and golf could not ask for a finer leader board as Saturday evening falls. In fact, a populace could not be better served than the teaching professionals of America. The organization that introduces a majority of golfers to the game, polishes swings, refines etiquette, has a star-studded cast on stage for Sunday’s final round. The weather problems have left the region, and St. Louis and Bellerive are prepared for an unforgettable 4th round. We learned a few things on day 3, so let’s move along with 5 things we learned on Saturday at the PGA Championship.
5) Does the viewing public care about quality architecture more than a quality field?
Complete transparency: I’m an architecture junky and know the difference between Trent Jones and Travis, Dye and Doak, and Coore and MacDonald. Sometimes there isn’t much, other times, there is. The runway tees, constant same-direction doglegs, and fairway-pinching bunkering of the Trent Jones influence were certainly a reaction to the quality architecture that came before World War 2 in the USA, and a lightning rod for the renaissance that began in the early 1990s. Here’s the rub: Koepka, Scott, Rahm, Fowler, Woods Day, Thomas, Molinari, Kisner, Cink are in the top 15 after 54 holes. You have U.S. Open, British Open, Masters and PGA champions in that roll call, recent challengers and the best of a young generation. What’s not to like about that, whether the architecture is our finest or not? One thing’s for certain: the PGA of America set up the Bellerive course to challenge (but not burden) the field, and the superintendent and crew executed the plan to perfection.
Doesn't get any closer than this. (Sound on ????)#PGAChamp pic.twitter.com/LpqXAq2Gg1
— PGA of America (@PGA) August 11, 2018
4) What does it mean to be Under The Radar?
Andy North won 2 U.S. Opens and not much else. One other PGA Tour event, in fact. He wasn’t due any more attention than that, as he didn’t demonstrate any staying power or diversity in his wins. Eerily similar is the case of Brooks Koepka: a standard tour win (Phoenix) followed by … 2 U.S. Opens. You can’t say that Brooks Koepka is any better than Andy North, at this stage of his career. Therefore, he doesn’t merit any more attention or respect than other major winners in the field. How about Adam Scott, Stewart Cink, Webb Simpson or Jason Day? One major for each of them, and like Koepka, ready to break free of whatever distinction they currently have. All great players, but not yet part of a legendary pantheon.
Webb Simpson with the chip-in for an emphatic par save. ??#PGAChamp pic.twitter.com/mMZcbSd1Nw
— PGA of America (@PGA) August 11, 2018
3) Who are these young guys, yet to win a major?
Jon Rahm is the most heralded of the younger generation. 23 years old, already a winner, already tabbed to perform in a legendary manner. Unfair burden, perhaps, but those who desire the mantel of greatness, must accept such an onus. Kevin Kisner has challenged so often in majors, these last 15 months. On Saturday, he played an un-Kisner like round of +2, dropping 5 shots off the pace set by Koepka at -12. Will the chance to come from behind suit him more than being a front-runner, as he was in July at Carnoustie? How about Gary Woodland? He’s 34, not a young guy by any stretch, but he needs a feature victory of his own. He fits the image of a PGA champion: hard-grinding journeyman who stays out of the spotlight, but has the game to produce at any moment.
33+ feet is no problem for Jon Rahm.#PGAChamp pic.twitter.com/O0KfgfEkxE
— PGA of America (@PGA) August 11, 2018
2) How about the defending champion and the Jarrod Lyle factor?
Justin Thomas had 68 on Saturday for a total of 8-under. He’s a quartet of shots off the lead and not keen on giving up the Wannamaker trophy he won in 2017. He knows how to win from behind, and how to hold a lead. He’s awfully tough to beat when the stakes are high. On a completely-different plane, Adam Scott and Jason Day have the entire nation of Australia on their shoulders, as they try to win one for their fallen comrade, Jarrod Lyle. So many forms of motivation, only one winner.
JT escapes trouble to put it close. ????#PGAChamp pic.twitter.com/KEYvkLhXbv
— PGA of America (@PGA) August 11, 2018
1) Woods
The elephant in the room is a tiger. Tiger Woods had a chance in July at the British Open. He has consecutive 66s after opening with 70. Another 66 will get him to 12-under, but it won’t be enough to win. He’ll need 64, and he’ll need to do it in the company of Gary Woodland, in the 3rd-last pairing. Before he arrives at the first tee, Woods will have the information he needs on who is making a move, which holes offer an opportunity to save strokes, and what he might need to do. The rest will be up to Tiger 4.0, a mash-up of 2000, 2005 and 2008 Tiger Woods. If he shoots another 31 on the front nine, as he did on Saturday, watch out. I can’t wait. I CANNOT WAIT!!
.@TigerWoods pumps out an impressive 31 on the front 9.
He's 8-under and 2 shots back. ???? #PGAChamp pic.twitter.com/qZ52QFpAwk
— PGA of America (@PGA) August 11, 2018
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Tour Photo Galleries
Photos from the 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
GolfWRX is on site this week in McKinney, Texas, at the 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson (FKA the AT&T Byron Nelson).
Last year at TPC Craig Ranch, Jason Day ended a five-year winless streak. J-Day is in the field again, as are Jordan Spieth, Tom Kim, and Will Zalatoris.
We have our usual assortment of general galleries, WITBs, and pullout albums for your perusal. As always, we’ll continue to add links to additional albums as they make their way to us from the Lone Star State.
Check out links to all our photos below.
General Albums
- 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson – Monday #1
- 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson – Monday #2
- 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson – Tuesday #1
- 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson – Tuesday #2
- 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson – Tuesday #3
WITB Albums
- Pierceson Coody – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Kris Kim – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- David Nyfjall – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Adrien Dumont de Chassart – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Jarred Jetter – North Texas PGA Section Champ – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Richy Werenski – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Wesley Bryan – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Parker Coody – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Peter Kuest – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Blaine Hale, Jr. – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Kelly Kraft – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Rico Hoey – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
Pullout Albums
- Adam Scott’s 2 new custom L.A.B. Golf putters – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Scotty Cameron putters – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
See what GolfWRXers are saying in the forums.
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News
Vincenzi’s 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson betting preview: International talent to shine
As anticipation mounts for the 2024 PGA Championship at Valhalla in a few weeks, the PGA Tour makes a pit stop in McKinney, Texas to play The CJ CUP Byron Nelson.
Last year was the third time TPC Craig Ranch hosted the Byron Nelson. Prior to 2021, the event was held at Trinity Forest Golf Club in Dallas.
TPC Craig Ranch is a 7,414-yard par-71 that features Bentgrass greens. The event historically plays relatively easy, and that has remained the case in the three editions at TPC Craig Ranch.
The course structure may provide some additional intrigue with the par-3 17th featuring a stadium setup called “Ranch 17” which is reminiscent of the 16th hole at TPC Scottsdale. The course also has both long and difficult par-4s mixed with drivable par-4s, which should create some exciting moments.
There are 156 golfers in the field this week, and many stars will be taking the week off to prepare for 2023’s second major championship in a few weeks and a “signature event” at Quail Hollow next week. Notable players in the field include Jordan Spieth, Jason Day, Sungjae Im, Stephan Jaeger, Tom Kim, Si Woo Kim, Min Woo Lee, Alex Noren, Adam Scott and Will Zalatoris.
Past Winners of the AT&T Byron Nelson
- 2023: Jason Day (-23 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2022: K.H. Lee (-26 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2021: K.H. Lee (-25 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2019: Sung Kang (-23)
- 2018: Aaron Wise (-23)
- 2017: Billy Horschel (-12)
- 2016: Sergio Garcia (-15)
- 2015: Steven Bowditch (-18)
Key Stats at TPC Craig Ranch
Let’s take a look at five key metrics for TPC Craig Ranch to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Approach remains the best measure of current form.
Hot iron play will be at a premium this week. Last year, Jason Day gained 6.4 strokes on approach, which was fourth in the field. In 2022, K.H. Lee was ninth in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining 5.2 strokes. In his 2021 victory, he was second in the field and gained 8.3 strokes on the field in the category.
Strokes Gaines: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds
- Tom Hoge (+1.12)
- Keith Mitchell (+1.02)
- Henrik Norlander (+0.99)
- Ryan Moore (+0.98)
- Ben Martin (0.80)
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Fairways are wide at TPC Craig Ranch.
Distance will certainly be helpful, and there aren’t too many difficult holes on the course. Golfers who put themselves in position off of the tee this week should have a sizable advantage.
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Over Past 24 Rounds
- Peter Kuest (+0.93)
- Kevin Daugherty (+0.91)
- Alejandro Tosti (+0.83)
- Keith Mitchell (+0.82)
- Kevin Tway (+0.74)
Birdie or Better %
There aren’t many hazards on the course, and all of the par-5s should be reachable in two for the majority of the players in the field. I am anticipating a birdie fest, and this statistic should be helpful in finding the birdie-makers.
Birdie or Better % Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Wesley Bryan (31%)
- Kelly Kraft (26.2%)
- Peter Kuest (25.9%)
- Matti Schmid (25.7%
- Jimmy Stanger (25.2%)
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
Many golfers on TOUR have some major putting surface variance in their statistics and prefer Bentgrass to other surfaces.
Bentgrass is common in Texas, and we often see golfers who play well in Texas continue to do so, finding a great feel around the greens.
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass) Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Maverick McNealy (+0.92)
- Aaron Baddeley (+0.87)
- Callum Tarren (+0.86)
- Harry Hall (+0.81)
- Nick Hardy (+0.69)
Course History
This statistic will tell us which players have performed the best at TPC Craig Ranch over the past three seasons.
Course History Over Past 12 Rounds:
- Jordan Spieth (+2.69)
- K.H. Lee (+2.59)
- Seamus Power (+1.84)
- Ryan Palmer (+1.76)
- Adam Scott (+1.72)
CJ CUP Byron Nelson Model Rankings
Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: OTT (24%), Birdie or Better % (18%), Course History (17%) and SG: Putting Bentgrass (16%).
- Alex Noren
- Adam Scott
- Keith Mitchell
- Si Woo Kim
- Stephen Jaeger
- Jordan Spieth
- Jhonnatan Vegas
- Nate Lashley
- Brice Garnett
- Tom Hoge
2024 CJ CUP Byron Nelson Picks
Byeong Hun An +3000 (DraftKings)
Byeong Hun put together an excellent performance at The Masters, finishing T16, which ties his best ever finish at a major championship (also T16 at 2019 U.S. Open). The South Korean gained 9.16 strokes from tee to green, which ranked 2nd in the field behind only the champion, Scottie Scheffler.
An’s next start at Harbour Town didn’t go as well (67th), but he still had a fantastic ball striking week. The 32-year-old bled strokes both around and on the greens, which was his eventual undoing. In his past three starts, An has gained significant strokes on the field both off the tee and on approach.
Benny had a strong start at last year’s Byron Nelson, finishing in a tie for 14th. With limited challenges on the course, he shouldn’t have to do much scrambling. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 17th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 17th in the field in birdie or better percentage. The putter is up and down per usual, but his ceiling putting weeks with his LAB Golf putter in 2024 are higher than they’ve been in past seasons.
An is starting to become my “white whale” of the PGA Tour, but I believe in his talent and TPC Craig Ranch is a course that should suit his excellent tee to green play.
Mackenzie Hughes +5500 (FanDuel)
Mackenzie Hughes is quietly putting together a very good season. He finished in a tie for 3rd at the Valspar Championship and followed that up with a T14 at the Texas Children’s Houston Open.
In his past 36 rounds in Texas, the Canadian ranks 5th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total. Last year, he finished in a tie for 14th at this event and gained strokes putting and off the tee. Mackenzie played well that week despite being in extremely poor form. He missed two cuts in a row prior to the event, and four consecutive cuts immediately after. His irons were off that week, but in 2024, we’ve seen an improvement in Hughes’ approach game. He now comes to the event playing some steady golf. He’s gained strokes on approach in four of his past five events and is hitting the ball very well from tee to green.
Hughes has two victories on the PGA Tour, both coming in relatively low-scoring affairs (-17 in each). He will need to go a bit deeper to win the CJ Cup Byron Nelson but has the type of putter that can keep pace in a birdie barrage.
Seamus Power +7000 (FanDuel)
After struggling over the past few seasons with injuries, Seamus Power seems as if he is rounding back into the form that made him a really consistent player on the PGA Tour.
Power finished T12 in his most recent start at the RBC Heritage, which is encouraging considering it was a “signature event” with a very strong field. For the week, the Irishman gained 4.4 strokes on approach and 2.8 strokes putting, which is the combination he’s used in the past to contend on Tour.
In his three trips to TPC Craig Ranch, Power is yet to finish outside of the top-20, with his best finish being a T9 in 2019. He ranks 4th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course. The 37-year-old thrives on easy tracks and has won in 2021 (Barbasol Championship) and 2022 (Butterfield Bermuda) on easier layouts with weaker fields.
Power has the game to go extremely low and I believe he can get back in the winner’s circle for the third time in four years.
Chan Kim +10000 (FanDuel)
Chan Kim has been striking the ball beautifully this season and is a proven winner with two wins on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2023 as well as eight career Japan Tour wins.
At last week’s Zurich Classic, Kim and his partner Doug Ghim finished in a tie for 28th. Prior to that, the South Korean T14 at the Valero Texas Open and T6 at the Corales Puntacana Championship. His success this season in Texas as well as he propensity to play his best golf on the PGA Tour’s easier courses make him and ideal fit for TPC Craig Ranch.
2024 has given plenty of longshot winners on the PGA Tour, and with a birdie fest like this, I believe there’s a strong chance we get another this week in McKinney, Texas.
Alejandro Tosti +10000 (FanDuel)
Alejandro Tosti is one of the most polarizing players on the PGA Tour thus far in the 2024 season. His antics can rub many the wrong way, but he’s shown on a few occasions that he has what it takes to compete in Tour events.
This season, Tosti has been elite off the tee. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 2nd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. The Argentine hits it long and straight, which works at any course on earth. He got a taste of contention a few starts ago at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, finishing in a tie for 2nd place.
Tosti had a fantastic year in 2023 on the Korn Ferry Tour, where going low is a prerequisite to success. If this turns to a shootout, which it likely will, the 27-year-old has the ability to set the pace. Tosti will look to become the second Argentine to win in Texas in the past two seasons after Emiliano Grillo emerged victorious at last year’s Charles Schwab Challenge.
C.T. Pan +15000 (FanDuel)
Outside of a T3 at the Mexico Open, C.T. Pan doesn’t have strong results this season in terms of finishes. However, over his past two starts, Pan’s iron play has come alive. At The Players, he gained 6.6 strokes on approach. At the Valero Texas Open, he gained 3.7. At last week’s Zurich Classic, Pan and his partner Kevin Yu finished T28. For a player who can get extremely hot with his scoring clubs, I believe he’s playing better than the results have shown over the past month or so.
Last season, Pan finished 4th at TPC Craig Ranch and was spectacular across all the major stat categories. In his past 36 qualifying rounds, he ranks 16th in Strokes Gained: Total in Texas.
Pan has won on the PGA Tour at the RBC Heritage and is always a player that I believe has what it takes to win on a Sunday if he finds himself in contention.
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News
Morning 9: McIlroy, Lowry win Zurich | Green repeats on LPGA | Steele victorious down under
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joro
Aug 13, 2018 at 4:52 pm
What a bunch of really stupid comments. There is no comparison to Brooks and Andy, the guy is for real and will win a lot before he becomes another announcer who can’t compete anymore,,, Hear that Trevor ? You went to David runtime Leadbetter and now you are out. As for Tiger, he is coming along but the public still adores him, so be it. Maybe he will win something, maybe not.
RocketBall
Aug 12, 2018 at 2:21 am
I’m going to go out on a limb and call you on one point. The Brooks Koepka / Andy North compare. I think even Andy North would agree that Koepka is better than he was at this stage.
vince guest
Aug 12, 2018 at 6:24 am
Yep, lamest compare ever!
Ronald Montesano
Aug 12, 2018 at 12:05 pm
Good. Never stop calling me out. Now, defend yourself. Why is it a lame comparison?
sid
Aug 12, 2018 at 12:58 am
Tiger will be prowling in the rough and plummet down down down… wanna bet?!!
Ronald Montesano
Aug 12, 2018 at 12:06 pm
I’m not a betting man. I certainly don’t want anyone in the rough, plummeting. It will be a learning experience for 4.0, so here’s hoping we have an unforgettable finish to this event.
Jerrod
Aug 12, 2018 at 5:40 pm
Typical hater comment. Your rally is in DC while the PGA Championship is going on. Wanna bet I’m right?!?!