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Opinion & Analysis

Fantasy Preview: 2018 Quicken Loans National

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Only four of the top-30 players in the Official World Rankings are in action this week for the Quicken Loans National at TPC Potomac. That’s because the majority of the worlds best either decided to rest or play the European Tour’s HNA Open de France at Le Golf National, which is the site of this year’s Ryder Cup. Tiger Woods is back in action this week, however, as he continues his impressive 2018 comeback at this event where he plays host.

Despite measuring just 7,107 yards, TPC Potomac is anything but easy. In fact, it played as one of the most challenging stops on Tour last year. The reason for this is mainly due to the extremely tight fairways, which are imperative to find if you want to have an opportunity to score. Don’t expect to see many drivers hit off the tee this week, as most players will prioritize accuracy over distance. In 2017, Kyle Stanley defeated Charles Howell III at TPC Potomac in a sudden-death playoff after both men had posted 7-under par in regulation.

Selected Tournament Odds (via Bet365)

  • Rickie Fowler 13/2
  • Tiger Woods 12/1
  • Marc Leishman 18/1
  • Francesco Molinari 22/1
  • Kyle Stanley 22/1
  • J.B. Holmes8/1
  • Charles Howell III 28/1

With a field desperately lacking in depth, it’s time for Tiger Woods (14/1, DK Price $11,000) to capture PGA Tour title No. 80. Woods is a clear second favorite in the betting this week, yet he is third behind Fowler and Leishman in DraftKings salary. I believe he should be first in both.

Woods won’t have to hit many drivers this week, just like at the Valspar Championship where he came so close to winning. Tiger can lean on his stinger off the tee, which gives him an advantage over the rest of the field. Ball striking is going to be critical this week, and Woods has not disappointed in this area since his return. Over his previous 24 rounds, Woods ranks third in Ball Striking and first in Strokes Gained-Approaching the Green. His approach play has been particularly impressive as of late. Over his last 12 rounds, he sits first in the field for Proximity to the Hole.

Woods ranks first in the field over his last 24 rounds for Strokes Gained-Total on golf courses measuring less than 7,200 yards. With his iron play looking imperious, all the signs point to a big week for him. The one doubt is Woods’ putting, which has been a little ropey as of late. Performance on the greens is liable to unpredictable changes in variance, however, and I don’t expect Woods to continue to falter in this department. In a weak field, and on a golf course that will benefit his excellent iron play more than most, this is an outstanding opportunity for Tiger Woods to re-enter the winner’s circle, and it’s one I believe he will take.

Finding value in the middle of the board this week is a challenge, but Gary Woodland’s (50/1, DK Price $8,100) salary of just $8,100 looks to be very cheap. Woodland has struggled since he won the Waste Management Phoenix Open earlier in the year, but over his last two events, he has shown signs of promise. In these two events, Woodland has gained over eight strokes for his Approach Play. With approach shots likely to be the key to success this week, this bodes very well for the long hitter.

Woodland has performed well on shorter golf courses through his career. Over his previous 50 rounds, Woodland ranks fourth in the field for Strokes Gained-Total on golf courses that are less than 7,200 yards. Woodland has also played competently on challenging golf courses recently. The Kansas native ranks 17th in the field over his last 24 rounds on golf courses where the scoring is difficult relative to par. With his irons sharp and his game slowly coming back into form, Woodland is underpriced and offers a lot of value this week.

He’s made 16 out of 17 cuts this season, and what might be the weakest field of the year, Rory Sabbatini (DK Price 100/1, DK Price $7,400) offers plenty of value at just $7,400. Sabbatini ranks 25th for Strokes Gained-Total over his previous 24 rounds, and he is more than adept at playing tough golf courses well. Over the same period and on golf courses where scoring is difficult relative to par, Sabbatini’s Strokes Gained-Total takes a jump up to 16th in this field.

Sabbatini also has an outstanding record on par-70 golf courses. Over his previous 24 rounds, Sabbatini sits eighth in this field for ball striking and third for Strokes Gained-Total on such courses. TPC Potomac should be a good fit for Sabbatini, and he looks a more reliable choice than others in his salary range.

As for bargain hunting this week, I like the look of Fabian Gomez (200/1, DK Price $7,100) at just $7,100. Gomez has been quite a reliable performer this year, making eight of his last nine cuts on Tour. He is coming off his best finish of the year at the Travelers where he bagged a top-20.

Gomez gained 6.6 strokes Tee to Green over the field at the Travelers last week, which was his sixth-best performance in this category of his career. The Argentine also enjoys short golf courses and sits 32nd in this field for Strokes Gained-Total on courses less than 7,200 yards over his previous 12 rounds. His immediate form is good. He’s ranked 19th for Strokes Gained Total over his last eight rounds, and he is worth taking a shot on this week at the low price.

Recommended Plays

  • Tiger Woods 14/1, DK Price $11,000
  • Gary Woodland 50/1, DK Price $8,100
  • Rory Sabbatini 100/1, DK Price $7,400
  • Fabian Gomez 200/1, DK Price $7,100
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Gianni is the Managing Editor at GolfWRX. He can be contacted at [email protected].

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

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The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

  • 2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
  • 2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
  • 2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
  • 2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
  • 2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
  • 2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 LIV Adelaide betting preview: Cam Smith ready for big week down under

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After having four of the top twelve players on the leaderboard at The Masters, LIV Golf is set for their fifth event of the season: LIV Adelaide. 

For both LIV fans and golf fans in Australia, LIV Adelaide is one of the most anticipated events of the year. With 35,000 people expected to attend each day of the tournament, the Grange Golf Club will be crawling with fans who are passionate about the sport of golf. The 12th hole, better known as “the watering hole”, is sure to have the rowdiest of the fans cheering after a long day of drinking some Leishman Lager.  

The Grange Golf Club is a par-72 that measures 6,946 yards. The course features minimal resistance, as golfers went extremely low last season. In 2023, Talor Gooch shot consecutive rounds of 62 on Thursday and Friday, giving himself a gigantic cushion heading into championship Sunday. Things got tight for a while, but in the end, the Oklahoma State product was able to hold off The Crushers’ Anirban Lahiri for a three-shot victory. 

The Four Aces won the team competition with the Range Goats finishing second. 

*All Images Courtesy of LIV Golf*

Past Winners at LIV Adelaide

  • 2023: Talor Gooch (-19)

Stat Leaders Through LIV Miami

Green in Regulation

  1. Richard Bland
  2. Jon Rahm
  3. Paul Casey

Fairways Hit

  1. Abraham Ancer
  2. Graeme McDowell
  3. Henrik Stenson

Driving Distance

  1. Bryson DeChambeau
  2. Joaquin Niemann
  3. Dean Burmester

Putting

  1. Cameron Smith
  2. Louis Oosthuizen
  3. Matt Jones

2024 LIV Adelaide Picks

Cameron Smith +1400 (DraftKings)

When I pulled up the odds for LIV Adelaide, I was more than a little surprised to see multiple golfers listed ahead of Cameron Smith on the betting board. A few starts ago, Cam finished runner-up at LIV Hong Kong, which is a golf course that absolutely suits his eye. Augusta National in another course that Smith could roll out of bed and finish in the top-ten at, and he did so two weeks ago at The Masters, finishing T6.

At Augusta, he gained strokes on the field on approach, off the tee (slightly), and of course, around the green and putting. Smith able to get in the mix at a major championship despite coming into the week feeling under the weather tells me that his game is once again rounding into form.

The Grange Golf Club is another course that undoubtedly suits the Australian. Smith is obviously incredibly comfortable playing in front of the Aussie faithful and has won three Australian PGA Championship’s. The course is very short and will allow Smith to play conservative off the tee, mitigating his most glaring weakness. With birdies available all over the golf course, there’s a chance the event turns into a putting contest, and there’s no one on the planet I’d rather have in one of those than Cam Smith.

Louis Oosthuizen +2200 (DraftKings)

Louis Oosthuizen has simply been one of the best players on LIV in the 2024 seas0n. The South African has finished in the top-10 on the LIV leaderboard in three of his five starts, with his best coming in Jeddah, where he finished T2. Perhaps more impressively, Oosthuizen finished T7 at LIV Miami, which took place at Doral’s “Blue Monster”, an absolutely massive golf course. Given that Louis is on the shorter side in terms of distance off the tee, his ability to play well in Miami shows how dialed he is with the irons this season.

In addition to the LIV finishes, Oosthuizen won back-to-back starts on the DP World Tour in December at the Alfred Dunhill Championship and the Mauritus Open. He also finished runner-up at the end of February in the International Series Oman. The 41-year-old has been one of the most consistent performers of 2024, regardless of tour.

For the season, Louis ranks 4th on LIV in birdies made, T9 in fairways hit and first in putting. He ranks 32nd in driving distance, but that won’t be an issue at this short course. Last season, he finished T11 at the event, but was in decent position going into the final round but fell back after shooting 70 while the rest of the field went low. This season, Oosthuizen comes into the event in peak form, and the course should be a perfect fit for his smooth swing and hot putter this week.

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 1

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Of all the clubs in our bags, wedges are almost always the simplest in construction and, therefore, the easiest to analyze what might make one work differently from another if you know what to look for.

Wedges are a lot less mysterious than drivers, of course, as the major brands are working with a lot of “pixie dust” inside these modern marvels. That’s carrying over more to irons now, with so many new models featuring internal multi-material technologies, and almost all of them having a “badge” or insert in the back to allow more complex graphics while hiding the actual distribution of mass.

But when it comes to wedges, most on the market today are still single pieces of molded steel, either cast or forged into that shape. So, if you look closely at where the mass is distributed, it’s pretty clear how that wedge is going to perform.

To start, because of their wider soles, the majority of the mass of almost any wedge is along the bottom third of the clubhead. So, the best wedge shots are always those hit between the 2nd and 5th grooves so that more mass is directly behind that impact. Elite tour professionals practice incessantly to learn to do that consistently, wearing out a spot about the size of a penny right there. If impact moves higher than that, the face is dramatically thinner, so smash factor is compromised significantly, which reduces the overall distance the ball will fly.

Every one of us, tour players included, knows that maddening shot that we feel a bit high on the face and it doesn’t go anywhere, it’s not your fault.

If your wedges show a wear pattern the size of a silver dollar, and centered above the 3rd or 4th groove, you are not getting anywhere near the same performance from shot to shot. Robot testing proves impact even two to three grooves higher in the face can cause distance loss of up to 35 to 55 feet with modern ‘tour design’ wedges.

In addition, as impact moves above the center of mass, the golf club principle of gear effect causes the ball to fly higher with less spin. Think of modern drivers for a minute. The “holy grail” of driving is high launch and low spin, and the driver engineers are pulling out all stops to get the mass as low in the clubhead as possible to optimize this combination.

Where is all the mass in your wedges? Low. So, disregarding the higher lofts, wedges “want” to launch the ball high with low spin – exactly the opposite of what good wedge play requires penetrating ball flight with high spin.

While almost all major brand wedges have begun putting a tiny bit more thickness in the top portion of the clubhead, conventional and modern ‘tour design’ wedges perform pretty much like they always have. Elite players learn to hit those crisp, spinny penetrating wedge shots by spending lots of practice time learning to consistently make contact low in the face.

So, what about grooves and face texture?

Grooves on any club can only do so much, and no one has any material advantage here. The USGA tightly defines what we manufacturers can do with grooves and face texture, and modern manufacturing techniques allow all of us to push those limits ever closer. And we all do. End of story.

Then there’s the topic of bounce and grinds, the most complex and confusing part of the wedge formula. Many top brands offer a complex array of sole configurations, all of them admittedly specialized to a particular kind of lie or turf conditions, and/or a particular divot pattern.

But if you don’t play the same turf all the time, and make the same size divot on every swing, how would you ever figure this out?

The only way is to take any wedge you are considering and play it a few rounds, hitting all the shots you face and observing the results. There’s simply no other way.

So, hopefully this will inspire a lively conversation in our comments section, and I’ll chime in to answer any questions you might have.

And next week, I’ll dive into the rest of the wedge formula. Yes, shafts, grips and specifications are essential, too.

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