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A deep dive into “toe hang” of a putter, and why it matters

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Let’s start with the basics just to be sure everyone is on the same page. When people talk about toe hang (at least in the traditional sense), what exactly are they talking about?

Grab your putter and lay it on a flat surface with the putter head hanging freely off the edge. Now, look at where the toe of your putter is pointing and imagine a clock face is centered on the axis of the shaft. The closer the toe of your putter is to pointing at 6:00, the more toe hang it has. The closer the toe of your putter is to pointing at 9:00 (for a right-handed golfer), the less toe hang it has. If the toe of the putter is pointing directly at 9:00 (where the face is pointing straight up), that is referred to as “face balanced.” If the toe of the putter is pointing at 7:30, that is generally referred to as “1/4 toe hang.” If the toe of the putter is pointing directly at 6:00, that is commonly referred to as “full toe hang.” Generally speaking, the majority of putters will fall on a spectrum somewhere between face balanced and full toe hang.

Of course, there are exceptions to that, but the point of this article will be to address more traditional designs.

What determines Toe Hang?

In technical terms, toe hang is determined by the relationship between the axis of the shaft and the center of gravity of the putter. If the two are perfectly aligned, the result is a face balanced putter. However, as the axis of the putter shaft gets closer to the golfer in relation to the putter’s center of gravity when addressing the golf ball, more toe hang will be the result. What that means from a feel perspective is that more toe hang will place the weight of the putter farther away from your hands as you swing the putter. That displacement will effectively place a moment arm on the putter shaft as you swing it, encouraging the face to open as you go back and then close as you move through the ball. Conversely, a face balanced putter will not want to torque at all naturally during the course of swinging the putter, as the two points are aligned with each other.

Something else to keep in mind is that there are two components to a torque or a moment. One is the distance between the two points (also referred to as the moment arm), which is essentially what we’ve been talking about up to now. The second component is the amount of force acting at that distance. As the weight of your putter increases, so will the effect of more or less toe hang. In practice, an original Ping Anser from 40 years ago won’t engage the hands in the same way during the stroke that a Ping Anser from today will due to today’s putter being 25-30 grams heavier. That may not sound like much until you point out that it’s a 10 percent increase.

Face-balanced putter’s relationship between axis of shaft (red line) and putter CG

Ping Anser’s relationship between axis of shaft (red line) and putter CG

8802’s relationship between axis of shaft (red line) and putter CG

What does Toe Hang actually do?

In the interest of full disclosure, I would have to submit that there is a myriad of characteristics that make a certain putter perfect for a particular golfer. This article is a deep dive into just one of those topics. We have to assume the putter’s length, lie angle, loft, offset, static weight, swing weight, grip size, grip shape, etc. are already suited to the golfer. We also have to assume the putter fits the golfer’s eye, feels right, and inspires confidence. Assuming those have all been configured correctly, let’s address what toe hang can do for a golfer.

Let’s go back to our previous discussion about more toe hang encouraging more torqueing of the putter face. Ultimately, you need to ask yourself what you want to feel when swinging the putter, as toe hang will contribute a lot to how the golfer feels where the face of the putter is. A golfer who prefers a lot of toe hang will complain that he or she has no idea where the face is when swinging a face balanced putter. On the contrary, a golfer who prefers a face balanced putter will feel like he or she has to fight with the putter in order to square the face of a heel-shafted blade.

As a general rule, more toe hang will either encourage or better suit a stronger arc in the putting stroke. One of the more classic examples of this arrangement would be Ben Crenshaw’s fluid, swinging-a-door putting stroke matched to the iconic heel-shafted blade putter he so famously wielded over the years.

Putters in the vicinity of ¼ toe hang (probably most of which would be somehow related to the trusty Ping Anser) generally encourage or better suit a slight arc in the putting stroke. Examples of this setup are nearly endless, but arguably one of the more successful would be Brad Faxon, who holds the record for lowest putts per GIR in a PGA Tour season at 1.704.

Face-balanced putters (as you might have guessed) generally encourage or will better suit a straight-back, straight-through putting stroke. These types of putters will most often appear in the form of a mallet with a double bend shaft. This recipe is one that has been widely attributed to legendary instructor Dave Pelz and his teaching methodology.

What does all of this ultimately mean?

When you go shopping for a new flat stick, try out different amounts of toe hang and get a feel for how they engage your hands as you swing the putter. Ultimately, that’s what you’re paying attention to. Different amounts of toe hang will allow you to have a different feel for where the face of the putter is, which will have different effects on how you release the putter. This will affect both the location you strike the ball on the face as well as your face angle control, so having a poor match could adversely affect both your distance and directional control.

Different putting stroke paths and their general relationship with toe hang

There is no “one size fits all” answer for what works, but as I alluded to above, there are some general guidelines for where you can start. As a rule, the more arc you have in your stroke, the more toe hang you will likely prefer. With that being said, there are exceptions to every rule. While it’s generally true that an 8802 is a good match with a strong arc stroke (for example), there are also cases where a golfer’s natural strong arcing stroke might benefit from something with less toe hang. Placing the center of gravity of the putter closer to the axis of the shaft could possibly quiet the golfer’s hands during the putting stroke. This, of course, depends on whether your personal putting stroke needs correcting or simply complimenting.

Also, your typical miss patterns could indicate a mismatch between you and the toe hang in your putter. If you miss a lot of putts to the right (for a right-handed golfer), a putter with less toe hang might help you correct that. Obviously, the reverse of that might also help you if you miss to the left often.

In short, while there are some general guidelines to follow that serve as good starting points, there is no cookie-cutter answer for finding the right putter from you apart from a fitting with an experienced professional. And when you find the right recipe for YOU, stick with it. No two golfers are the same and no two putters are the same.

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Peter Schmitt is an avid golfer trying to get better every day, the definition of which changes relatively frequently. He believes that first and foremost, golf should be an enjoyable experience. Always. Peter is a former Marine and a full-time mechanical engineer (outside of the golf industry). He lives in Lexington, KY with his wife and two young kids. "What other people may find in poetry or art museums, I find in the flight of a good drive." -Arnold Palmer

58 Comments

58 Comments

  1. PBB

    Jun 25, 2020 at 2:19 pm

    Backwards. Full toe hang putters want to close on the backswing and open on the follow through. Better for straight back / straight through strokes.

    Face balanced putters want to open on the backswing and close on the follow through. Better for strong arc putters.

    • A. Paul McDonough

      May 30, 2021 at 1:30 pm

      You are CORRECT about Toe Hang Putters closing, Face to Path, in the Backstroke and Opening Face to Path on Forward Stroke.
      However, Face Balanced Putters stay Square to Path Backwards and Forward.
      An “Arc Stroke” Player will Pull, and/or Hook Putts with a Face Balanced Putter.
      A “Straight Path” Player will be able to get away with minimal Toe Flow, but TOO MUCH Toe Flow will lead to Push and/or Slice Putts.

  2. Bruce

    May 11, 2019 at 1:35 pm

    re: If the toe of the putter is pointing at 7:30, that is generally referred to as 1/4 toe hang.”

    If 9 o’clock is face balanced and 6 o’clock is toe balanced, then 7:30 os 1/2 toe hang!

  3. Tee-Bone

    Sep 5, 2018 at 2:19 pm

    I’m no scientist, but its pretty obvious that as the shaft is swung back, the cg, if not in-line with the path of that shaft, will want to stay behind. Meaning, a heel-shafted putter wants to CLOSE going back, not OPEN. Its a nice story to sell putters, though.

  4. joro

    Sep 1, 2018 at 3:18 pm

    And yet they still stick by that old thinking. The fact is the Putt is going to go where the face is facing regardless of your stroke, so does it really matter if you are a swinging gate or back and through ? Watch on TV when they show from behind and you see by the set up where the face is pointing and the ball will go there regardless of the stroke, aim left, the ball goes left.

  5. Rich

    Aug 14, 2018 at 7:58 pm

    I’m a straight back and thru stroke guy and use a mallet and at times a 8802 and haven’t changed my stroke ,but the 8802 has a super stroke grip and that helps..

    • Geohogan

      Aug 22, 2018 at 8:37 pm

      Super stroke grip, increases counter weighting ie lowers swing weight
      and thereby less sensitive to the head, which makes it easier, more natural to control the stroke.

      • Geohogan

        Aug 22, 2018 at 8:40 pm

        Guessing your 8802 with super stroke grip is B10-C4 swing weight.

  6. Chuck

    Aug 10, 2018 at 3:28 pm

    In the lead photo, what is the putter that is second from the right?

  7. Rusty Trombone

    Aug 3, 2018 at 9:27 pm

    I went from a face balanced Musty Putter, to the Ping sigma G Tyrone, to the Scotty Cameron 5.5m, then to my dad’s old Taylormade (lots of toe hang) and started putting lights out with it. Just received the Taylormade TP Soto today, and although it doesn’t have the same plastic pure roll insert as my dad’s, (it’s got a metal “milled insert”) it has similar toe hang, and look forward to testing it out. Definitely want to try the SAM thing another poster mentioned.

  8. stuart burley

    Jul 28, 2018 at 10:15 am

    The explanation of the COG in relation to the shaft is very good. Fact is though that the opening and closing and clubface torque have been proven to be the opposite. Good golfers aim slightly left and hold the clubface off through impact (negative gamma torque). Poor putters aim slightly right and over rotate during impact (positive gamma rotation). This is easier to do with a face balanced putter due to the removal of clubface torque.

    • shawn

      Jul 29, 2018 at 10:35 pm

      No, you are wrong about the COG. What Peter has shown is incomplete because you must also consider the COG of the putter head itself which may be well behind the “sweet spot” shown on the putter face. You must determine where the red line axis intersects the putter head to fully understand putter mechanics. And if you are applying torque to the putter you are incompetent.

    • Geohogan

      Jul 29, 2018 at 11:24 pm

      Whether a pro or am, impact between the putter face and the ball is
      one, one thousandths of a second. There is no gamma rotation in one, one thousandths of a second, positive or negative.

      Stop perpetuating mythology.

  9. RBImGuy

    Jul 27, 2018 at 8:27 am

    I am a great putter and putt well with any sort of putter.
    its the Indian not the bow

  10. Harv

    Jul 26, 2018 at 7:39 pm

    I got toe hang… but I just use a nail clipper…

  11. HDTVMAN

    Jul 25, 2018 at 10:50 pm

    Another very important part of the putting decision is the grip. Thin, thick, flat, round, hard, soft…there are no right or wrongs, whatever you like.

  12. Socrates

    Jul 25, 2018 at 9:24 pm

    Seems like a regurgitation of mythology with no real data to substantiate the claims. Plenty of players on Tour (I’ll use Tour players since they are the best putters out there) who use face balanced putters and have an arcing stroke. And plenty that use a toe hang putter that are SBST. Reminds me of how people thought they knew how to make the ball curve until the “new” ball flight rules told us what really happens.

    • Caroline

      Jul 25, 2018 at 11:27 pm

      Nothing, absolutely nothing is more important in golf, pitches, chips, putting..then hand eye coordination…pros have so much of it that trying to do what they do is impossible unless you have that coordination yourself. For us amateurs golf is an adventure every time we step on the first tee. Amateurs that improve and get better only do so because they stick with what ever they found that gets them into the hole. Sadly most amateurs are at the mercy of what ever the next swing,putt, chip article some “golf” instructor has published this month. If you find a way that gets it into the hole that is your secret.

  13. Cris Kennedy

    Jul 25, 2018 at 8:36 pm

    The only putter you want is the one you paid SO MUCH MONEY FOR that you can never ever change to something else because, after all, you spent WAY MORE MONEY than you can ever justify, or even recover from financially. This way…you can never change putters. It FORCES you to learn how to use that putter; i.e., you’ll finally learn how to putt and not keep thinking, “….maybe my problem I need the latest and greatest (different) putter that___________uses on tour……!!

    • Cameron Diego

      Jul 26, 2018 at 11:09 am

      Chris, you are so right. I’ve been making payments on my Scotty Cameron putter for the last fifteen years. It is almost paid off (only have five more years to go) and in the last two years, I have only three-putted once.

  14. Terry Porvin

    Jul 25, 2018 at 8:04 pm

    There may be an error in the 2nd to last paragraph of the article. From my understanding, if a right handed golfer is missing putts right, he/she may need more to hang to square up the face & vise versa.

    • Scott S

      Jul 27, 2018 at 7:59 am

      Terry- When I read that I thought the same thing. More toe hang would create a greater amount of putter face closing during the stroke would it not? The only thing I could think of was perhaps with less toe hang the putter would not open up as much to begin with and effectively reduce overall opening/closing of the face. I would love to hear a greater explanation of this or a correction of what was written.

    • A. Paul McDonough

      May 30, 2021 at 1:44 pm

      Terry, Toe Hang Putters CLOSE – Face to Path – BACK and OPEN – FtP – going Forward. Coming from Inside to Square to Inside (Arc Stroke) with a “Closing” Face would produce either Pulls and/or Hooking Putts.
      Face Balanced stay Square to Path.
      A “Straight Line” Stroke Player can get away with minimal Toe Flow, too much would lead to Push and/or Slice Putts.

  15. JR

    Jul 25, 2018 at 2:44 pm

    I find reading the putt correctly helps me make more putts.

  16. Joe Perez

    Jul 25, 2018 at 2:15 pm

    Wonderful article, but I still can’t figure out why sometimes I prefer a face-balanced mallet and other times, one with a lot of toe-hang. ????

    • Geohogan

      Jul 28, 2018 at 12:53 am

      “Change is as good as a rest?”

      When we change it up, it stimulates our brain.
      Its not toe hang or not toe hang, its the variety that increases focus and we do better .. until we need another fix.

      Neurologists say, to change the route home from work every day. It stimulates neurons. Change in our golf prevents atrophy.

      • Billy

        Apr 19, 2019 at 5:27 am

        You hit the nail on the head. I just bay’d an O Works 1W and boy am I making putts!

  17. CJ

    Jul 25, 2018 at 1:50 pm

    While there are always typical negative responses, most poor putters can’t read greens. Using arc style trainer and putting rh only for rh players helped me tremendously. Thanks for the article OP.

  18. BL

    Jul 25, 2018 at 12:34 pm

    Toe hang can be very misleading. See: Bullseyes.

  19. dtrain

    Jul 25, 2018 at 12:22 pm

    So what does this article prove that I haven’t seen 1000 times before? How exactly is this a “deep dive” More like sticking your toe in the kiddie pool. How about some serious testing, with actual golfers?

  20. Peter Schmitt

    Jul 25, 2018 at 11:50 am

    Thanks for the discussion, folks. There’s a lot to unpack here and frankly there wasn’t enough room to talk about concepts such as toe up, face balanced at impact, and the like. This is intended to serve as a 101-level discussion to cover the “traditional” spectrum of one aspect of putter design. This should aid in having an informed discussion with a fitter, which IMO is the proper conclusion of the article. Go get a proper fitting with a qualified individual.

    • Don

      Jul 25, 2018 at 2:58 pm

      You also failed to mention how the actual “connection point” of the shaft to the putter head affects things. For example, your first picture (the one showing the face-balanced putter with the axis of the shaft pointing directly at the impact sweet spot) would actually create torque (twist) at the moment of impact because even though the axis of the shaft is pointed at the sweet spot, the shaft “connects” toward the heel. Now, contrast this to a center-shafted putter that has the exact same axis of the shaft but that connects to the putter head with no goose-neck. It would not twist when impacting the ball because it connects at the point where the sweet spot actually is. From a “physics” standpoint, a center-shafted putter would seem to be more ideal even though the axis of the shaft would be exactly the same as one with a goose-neck.

      • engineer bob

        Jul 26, 2018 at 4:20 pm

        Why is my scientifically valid comment being held for moderation?

        • Harv

          Jul 26, 2018 at 7:38 pm

          …. because if you’re too smart they will delete your comments because the don’t want the gearheads to blow up their heads…

  21. Jimmie

    Jul 25, 2018 at 9:16 am

    How about putters that are perfectly 360 degree balanced, which means either no toe hang or any toe hang you desire. It is ideal as there is no bias and perfect feel. I got one from ebay P&si-Egos putter.

    • PT

      Aug 1, 2018 at 9:00 pm

      Yeah but you notice on their website that they have no video examples of anybody actually making any putts with the putter? Nobody! But they have videos of everybody else missing.

  22. QB

    Jul 25, 2018 at 9:02 am

    You neglected to mention toe up putters, which point to 12 noon! 12 o’clock toe hang allows the face to remain square throughout the stroke, they’re nearly impossible to pull or push. Been bagging one for a couple years now and changed my game. Love my Edel brick but I believe odyssey came out with a line of toe up recently as well.

    • Jimmie

      Jul 25, 2018 at 12:16 pm

      I think Odyssey introduced a toe-down putter… just like Axis 1.

  23. Antonio

    Jul 25, 2018 at 3:16 am

    Great article, thanks!
    However I do not agree on the conclussion. By own experience If you tend to miss right a more toe Hung putter will help you close the face at impact and bring it more square, provided of course that you have and arc putter swing as you mentioned.

  24. Jim McPherson

    Jul 25, 2018 at 1:48 am

    So what is the consensus on putter fittings? Worth it?

    Or is it all about rolling what appeals to the eye and then putting in the practice?

    • HDTVMAN

      Jul 25, 2018 at 10:47 pm

      I stress to my customers, before buying a putter, have a PGA Professional go thru the SAM, Science In Motion, program. It’s 90 minutes and $50 at our shop, and well worth it. It’s used at the Callaway Performance Center and TM’s Kingdom, and will show you your arc & strike angle, helping you to pick out the correct putter. We allow customers to compare their current putter to whatever putter on the floor that they are considering purchasing. Best $50 you will spend.

  25. engineer bob

    Jul 24, 2018 at 9:57 pm

    … putter shaft axis… putter center of gravity… torque… moment… moment arm.… OK, stop here!!!
    The table top test for toe hang is good, but let’s complicate it with some simple science.
    Hold the top of your putter grip between the finger and thumb and twirl the hanging putter. If the shaft and spin axis coincide, the putter is face balanced. If the shaft rotates outside of the spin axis and wobbles, it’s not face balanced. (p.s. the vertical spin axis is called the longitudinal gravitational axis 😮 ).

  26. David

    Jul 24, 2018 at 9:21 pm

    Check out the videos from the guys at Directed Force putters if you want to see what a crock “face-balanced” putters are. They absolutely, positively do not stay “square the the line” in any way, shape or form.

    No I don’t work for Directed Force.

    Yes, I bought one.

    No, I no longer use it.

    But, hey, let’s at least TRY to get the science right….

    • gif

      Jul 24, 2018 at 9:59 pm

      Are you a “feeel” putter?

    • Geohogan

      Jul 24, 2018 at 10:40 pm

      What if a putter did stay square to the line?

      Putter ball contact is 1/1000 second for 1/4 inch.
      That is all she wrote.

      …so whether putter face stays square after impact is meaningless.
      It is just more marketing BS, like oversize grips.
      Check out the putters used by two of the greatest putters who ever lived, Bobby Jones and Bobby Locke.
      Check out their putters.

      • gif

        Jul 25, 2018 at 12:12 am

        But you don’t realize that a putter represents a golfer’s fhallic symbol… his masculinity on the greens as he bravely putt-putts the ball into the hole… ploop 😮

  27. acew/7iron

    Jul 24, 2018 at 8:51 pm

    Funny you mention big grips…I kept inching towards adding larger and larger ones until one day I realized I could not control distance or direction at all. Got a small grip and back to lagging them close or making them from time to time.

    • Geohogan

      Jul 24, 2018 at 10:33 pm

      ace, you werent adding larger and larger grips, but rather adding more and more weight to the butt end of the club. Some oversize grips will be 75 grams heavier than std(50 grams). Thats serious reduction in swing weight, maybe from D2 to C0? Serious reduction in clubhead feel.

      IMO, adjustable counter weights is the way to go with putters. Its been proven that performance improves (up to 30 days) when we make changes; and if you believe a change will make a difference for the better (placebo effect), there is 60% chance you will improve.

      • gif

        Jul 25, 2018 at 12:17 am

        75 grams minus 50 grams = 25 grams… almost 1 ounce… insignificant…. and putter swingweight is irrelevant to a tiny putting movement. You can adjust to any putter size, shape, weight if you practice enough like the pros do.

        • Geohogan

          Jul 26, 2018 at 7:50 am

          Some oversize grips will be 75 grams heavier than std(50 grams

          75+50=125 grams

  28. Geohogan

    Jul 24, 2018 at 7:51 pm

    Messing around with an old Powerbilt, Model 57 blade putter not unlike Bobby Jones, Calamity Jane. 33.5 inches long, B 4 swing weight. Calamity Jane was B8, if reference I found is correct.

    So although complete toe hanger(6 oclock), the counter balance puts so much weight in the hands, rather than the putter head,
    that the face is very controllable.

    Makes me think that counter balancing may be the reason for the fad to go to oversize grips. It must reduce Swing weight by at least 10 SW points , to add 50+ grams to the handle, with no compensation to the head.

    I’ll bet if golfers maintained swing weight when they put oversize grips on their clubs the fad would go away. ie. its counter balancing resulting in significantly lower SW, that gives more clubhead control, not fatter grips.

    • gif

      Jul 25, 2018 at 12:20 am

      Those old 1-iron shaped vintage putters were used in the days of the “stymie”… where you had to loft your ball over your opponents ball to get to the hole… without contacting his ball…!!!

      • Geohogan

        Jul 26, 2018 at 8:38 am

        Many golfers today use putters with 6-10 degrees of loft and dont do it because of stymies. For one thing it allows forward lean or hands ahead and still maintain loft to get the ball rolling.

        How much loft is remaining if putter has 2 degrees of loft and hands are ahead at impact?

      • Geohogan

        Jul 26, 2018 at 2:13 pm

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_TCObKqRwtQ
        1:20
        Ben hogan , stymied, using an L Wedge?

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19th Hole

Vincenzi: Fortinet Championship First Round Leader picks

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The PGA Tour begins its fall season with a trip to Wine Country as the world of golf patiently awaits the 2023 Ryder Cup which is just a few weeks away. Silverado is a course where plenty of players with varying skill sets can compete, but strong West Coast history tends to be a major factor.

In the past four editions of the Fortinet Championship, there have been six first-round leaders or co-leaders. Of the six, three have started their rounds in the morning wave, and three started in the afternoon. The leading scores have all been between 63 and 65.

As of now, the winds look to be very docile, with speeds of 4-7 MPH throughout the day. I don’t see either the AM or PM wave as having a major advantage.

2023 Fortinet Championship First-Round Leader Picks

Zac Blair +9000 (FanDuel)

First-Round Tee Time: 1.22 p.m PT

A big theme for me this week is targeting players who have had success at both Silverado and the West Coast in general. Blair finished 22nd here last year, and also finished 4th back in 2019. That year, he shot 66 in rounds two and three, showing his ability to go low on this track.

In 2022, Blair gained 3.8 strokes putting and in 2019, he gained 8.6. The 33-year-old seemingly has these greens figured out.

C.T. Pan +9000 (FanDuel)

First-Round Tee Time: 8.23 a.m PT

At the end of the 2023 season, C.T. Pan showed flashes of what made him a good player prior to his injury struggles early in the year. He finished 4th at the AT&T Byron Nelson in May, and 3rd at the RBC Canadian Open in June. He also finished 6th at Silverado back in 2021, gaining 4.5 strokes on approach and 6.6 strokes putting.

A few weeks off may have given Pan a chance to reset and focus on the upcoming fall swing, where I believe he’ll play some good golf.

Joel Dahmen +110000 (FanDuel)

First-Round Tee Time: 7:28 a.m PT

After becoming a well-known name in golf due to his affable presence in Netflix’ “Full Swing” documentary, Dahmen had what can only be considered a disappointment of a 2023 season. I believe he’s a better player than he showed last year and is a good candidate for a bounce back fall and 2024.

Dahmen finished in a tie for 10th at the Barracuda Championship in late July, and the course is similar in agronomy and location to what he’ll see this week in Napa. He has some strong history on the West Coast including top-ten finishes at Riviera (5th, 2020), Pebble Beach (6th, 2022), Sherwood (8th, 2020), TPC Summerlin (9th, 2019) and Torrey Pines (9th, 2019).

James Hahn +125000 (Caesars)

First-Round Tee Time: 1:55 p.m PT

James Hahn absolutely loves golf on the West Coast. He’s won at Riviera and has also shown some course form with a 9th place finish at Silverado back in 2020. That week, Hahn gained 4.7 strokes putting, demonstrating his comfort level on these POA putting surfaces.

He finished T6 at the Barracuda back in July, and there’s no doubt that a return to California will be welcome for the 41-year-old.

Peter Malnati +125000 (BetRivers)

First-Round Tee Time: 12.27 p.m PT 

Peter Malnati excels at putting on the West Coast. He ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting on POA and has shown in the past he’s capable of going extremely low on any given round due to his ability to catch a hot putter.

His course history isn’t spectacular, but he’s played well enough at Silverado. In his past seven trips to the course, he’s finished in the top-35 four times.

Harry Higgs +150000 (BetRivers)

First-Round Tee Time: 1.55 p.m PT

In what is seemingly becoming a theme in this week’s First-Round Leader column, Harry Higgs is a player that really fell out of form in 2023, but a reset and a trip to a course he’s had success at in the past may spark a resurgence.

Higgs finished 2nd at Silverado in 2020 and wasn’t in particularly great form then either. Success hasn’t come in abundance for the 31-year-old, but three of his top-10 finishes on Tour have come in this area of the country.

Higgs shot an impressive 62 here in round two in 2020, which would certainly be enough to capture the first-round lead this year.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s Fortinet Championship betting preview: California native ready for breakthrough win in Napa

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After a three-week break, the 2022-23 PGA TOUR season kicks off in Napa Valley at the Silverado Resort and Spa to play the Fortinet Championship.

Prior to 2021, the event was called the Safeway Open, but the tournament sponsor changed to Fortinet with contract that will last for three more seasons. Although the name has changed multiple times, Silverado’s North Course has been featured on the PGA TOUR since 1968.

The course is a par 72, measuring at 7,166 yards. Silverado features Poa annua greens that can be tricky, especially as the surface becomes bumpier in the afternoon. The tree-lined fairways aren’t easy to hit, but the rough shouldn’t be exceedingly penal. Shorter hitters are in play on this relatively short course, and accuracy will be at a premium.

There will be a re-routing at Silverado for this year’s Fortinet Championship. Ten holes will be played in a different order. Holes 1-7 and 18 will remain as in year’s past. The new finishing stretch – No. 14 (par 4), No. 15 (par 5), No. 16 (par 4), No. 17 (par 3) and No. 18 (par 5). The new 17th was previously the 11th, which is the signature hole on the course.

The field will consist of 155 players. Being the swing season, the field for this event is usually relatively weak. However, there are some intriguing names in the field including Justin Thomas, Webb Simpson, Sahith Theegala, Joel Dahmen, and Kevin Kisner.

Past Winners

  • 2022: Max Homa (-22)
  • 2021: Max Homa (-19)
  • 2020: Stewart Cink (-21)
  • 2019: Cameron Champ (-17)
  • 2018: Kevin Tway (-14)
  • 2017: Brendan Steele -15
  • 2016: Brendan Steele -18

Let’s take a look at several key metrics for Silverado to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

Strokes Gained: Approach

Historically, one of the North Course’s defenses will be tightly tucked pin placement, so effective shot-shaping and a higher ball flight may be an advantage this week. In order to find success, players need to hit the correct level of the sloping Poa Annua greens.

Strokes Gained: Approach past 24 rounds:

  1. Chez Reavie (+24.7)
  2. Sam Ryder (+20.0)
  3. Mark Hubbard (+17.8)
  4. Kevin Streelman (+18.3)
  5. Doug Ghim (+17.1)

Good Drives Gained

Hitting fairways in regulation at Silverado is more difficult than TOUR average, as players have done so in the past at a rate of only 52.2%. While the rough isn’t extremely long here, controlling spin out of the thick grass is much more difficult than doing so from the fairway. In order to find success, players need to hit the correct level of the sloping Poa annua greens.

In 2021, the top eight players on the leaderboard all had a positive week in “Good Drives Gained. The winner, Max Homa was +3.3 in the category and Mito Pereira, who finished third, was +8.3.

In 2022, 12 of the top 13 players on the leaderboard gained in the category including the winner Max Homa (+6.0) and runner up Danny Willet (5.0).

Good Drives Gained past 24 rounds:

  1. Doug Ghim (+24.4) 
  2. Matt NeSmith (+23.8) 
  3. Russell Knox (+20.6)
  4. Brice Garnett (+19.9)
  5. Ryan Armour (+19.8)

Par 4: 400-450

There are six par 4’s at Silverado that are between 400 and 450-yards. It will be important to target players who excel at playing these holes. With the par 5s being fairly short and reachable, the par 4 scoring may prove to be the bigger difference-maker.

Par 4: 400-450 past 24 rounds:

  1. Beau Hossler (+14.7) 
  2. Max Homa (+12.4)
  3. Garrick Higgo (+8.5)
  4. Justin Suh (+8.3)
  5. Stephan Jaeger (+8.2)

Birdie or Better: Gained

With scores at Silverado potentially approaching the 20 under par range, making plenty of birdies will be a requirement in order to contend this week.

Birdie or Better: Gained in past 24 rounds:

  1. Nick Hardy (+15.3)
  2. Scott Piercy (+15.2)
  3. Ryan Gerard (+14.9)
  4. Max Homa (+14.0)
  5. Peter Kuest (+13.5)

Strokes Gained: Putting (Poa Annua)

Poa annua greens on the West Coast can be quite difficult for golfers to adjust to if they don’t have much experience on the surface.

Prior to the 2019 Safeway Open, Phil Mickelson talked about how the type of putting surface is a major factor:

“I think a lot of guys struggle with the Poa annua greens, which is a grass that I grew up playing, so I’m very comfortable on the greens. When you grow up and spend most of your time back east in Florida on the Bermuda, this is a very awkward surface to putt on. The color looks different — it’s hard to sometimes read. But when you’re used to it, I don’t know of much better surfaces than these right here.”

This week it is important to look for the golfers who historically excel on Poa annua.

Total Strokes Gained in category in past 24 rounds:

  1. Kevin Kisner (+27.7) 
  2. Max Homa (+21.2)
  3. Peter Malnati (+20.5)
  4. Justin Suh (+18.5)
  5. Mackenzie Hughes (+16.0)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: APP (25%), Good Drives Gained: (25%), Birdie or Better (20%), Par 4: 400-450 (15%), SG: Putting (Poa annua) (15%).

  1. Max Homa (+750)
  2. Doug Ghim (+5000)
  3. Andrew Putnam (+4000)
  4. Chez Reavie (+4500)
  5. Kevin Streelman (+5500)
  6. Mark Hubbard (+5000)
  7. Sam Ryder (+7000)
  8. Brendon Todd (+3500)
  9. Akshay Bhatia (+6000)
  10. Cameron Davis (+2200)

2023 Fortinet Championship Picks

Sahith Theegala +2000 (DraftKings):

Sahith Theegala is yet to break out for his maiden PGA Tour victory but is a great candidate for a player who can have a strong fall and take advantage of some weaker fields. The 26-year-old ended his season on a positive note, finishing 13th at the FedEx St. Jude and 15th at the BMW Championship.

I’ve long believed that Theegala’s first win would come on the West Coast. He grew up in California and was a three-time All-American at Pepperdine University, where he became the fifth player to win the Jack Nicklaus Award, Haskins Award and Ben Hogan award all in the same year (2020). Sahith made his PGA Tour debut at Silverado in 2020, where he finished in a tie for 14th. Last year, he finished 6th at the Fortinet Championship.

Theegala is very comfortable playing in California. That is perhaps most noticeable on the putting surface where he gains an average of +0.44 strokes on the field per event on POA, which is more than four times what he gains on Bermudagrass or Bentgrass. The POA greens at Silverado can get especially difficult late in the day, which is a reason why players with a background on them have had so much success at the course. In the past seven years of the event, five winners have come from California.

Theegala is pricey this week and is as close to the top of the odds board as I can remember him being, but that’s the nature of the PGA Tour fall season. It’s hard to find a spot on the schedule that Sahith will have a better chance at winning than this one.

Justin Suh +5000 (PointsBet)

Consistency has been an issue early in the career of Justin Suh, but he’s shown flashes in 2023 of what made him such a highly regarded prospect to begin with. After a few top-10 finishes at the PLAYERS Championship and the Honda Classic, Suh ended the season on a bit of a sour note, failing to finish better than 34th in his last five starts of the season.

Despite the struggles, I’m optimistic about Suh as we begin the fall swing. The 26-year-old made the trip to Crans-Montana, Valais, Switzerland to play in the Omega European Masters, and finished 24th in a decent field. More encouraging than the finish was how Suh hit the ball. He gained 5.24 strokes on approach and hit plenty of fairways.

The 2018 Pac-12 Player of the Year grew up on California golf courses. Suh was a highly decorated amateur golfer with plenty of wins on the West Coast prior to attending USC, where he was one of the best players in the country.

When he’s on, Suh is one of the best putters on Tour, and he should comfortable playing in his home state in search of his first PGA Tour victory.

Akshay Bhatia +5500 (DraftKings):

Akshay Bhatia is still just 21 years old and one of the most tantalizing prospects in the world of golf. The smooth-swinging lefty was able to obtain his first PGA Tour victory at the Barracuda Championship at Tahoe Mountain Club in Truckee, California just a few months ago. The course is just a few hours ride from Silverado and the conditions and course should be very similar.

Bhatia will have no issue making birdies in bunches at Silverado, and the rough shouldn’t be exceedingly penal if he gets loose with his driver.

Bhatia made his debut at Silverado in 2020 at just 18 years old and managed to finish 9th. Since then, he’s gained a great deal of confidence and has refined his game as a professional.

Akshay got engaged this week. He can celebrate with a victory this week at the Fortinet.

Sam Ryder +8000 (FanDuel):

Statistically, Sam Ryder jumps off the page this week. In his past four measured starts, he’s gained 4.2, 5.4, 5.2 and 5.7 strokes on approach and is completely dialed in with his irons. Despite the numbers, he hasn’t managed to crack the top-30 on the leaderboard in that stretch but this is a field that is much weaker than he faced at the end of last season.

In addition to the recent stats, Ryder played some good golf on the West Coast last year. Most notably, he finished 4th at Torrey Pines in a loaded field and also finished 20th at both the Waste Managment Phoenix Open and the Genesis Invitational.

If Ryder continues with his hot approach play, he should be able to contend at Silverado this week.

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The Wedge Guy: Understanding iron designs, Part 2

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As promised, here is the follow-up to last week’s post about understanding iron designs. Today, I’m going to tell you what to look for as you try to figure out which iron best suits your type of play and is most likely to deliver the performance you seek. Oh, and these principles apply to wedges as well.

Let me begin with a historical observation.

Up until the introduction of the first mainstream cavity back/perimeter-weighted irons, the entire market was limited to some type of forged blade design. Across the entire spectrum of brands and models, there were only subtle nuanced differences from one to the other. Some featured some kind of “muscle back”, where the mass was concentrated low in the clubhead and the shaping formed a sort of crescent on the back of the club, the majority of mass being in the center of the clubhead (from heel to toe). Others spread that mass more evenly across the back of the clubhead (i.e. the Hogan designs), while others shaped their back to provide a bit more mass toward the toe, as in the traditional Wilson Staff models.

Then the “revolution” came with the Ping Eye 2 and all its copies. These early cavity-back designs moved much of the mass to the extreme perimeter of the clubhead, leaving a thin face, which delivered a high degree of forgiveness of off-center hits, but also deteriorated the consistent distance control delivered by the traditional forged blades. They also launched the ball much higher, making long- and mid-irons much easier to hit, but compromising the traditional precision of shorter irons.

Golfers had to make choice between shotmaking precision and forgiveness of mishits.

This design “revolution” also set in motion the continual strengthening of lofts in the shorter clubs to where we are today when “P-clubs” can be as low as 42 degrees – a far cry from what a true “pitching wedge” must be. See my post on that here

The one thing in common with both of these approaches to iron design was that “what you see is what you get.” There were no internal technologies, so a visual examination of the clubhead could tell you pretty much how that iron was going to play.

As iron technologies have advanced, many radical designs have come and gone, but the performance of the traditional blade and the traditional cavity-back remain. Modern technologies allow much more precision in making iron heads, and multi-material construction has given club designers much more freedom to explore and refine performance, but these principles of iron head design are constant. For the most part, the golf ball will react to how a clubhead’s mass is distributed and where its CG is located. Period.

Understand that for each clubhead number or loft, the weight of the clubhead does not vary by more than a few grams from model to model to model. The designers’ challenge is to position that finite amount of mass in such a way as to achieve the performance goals for that particular model. So, here are the parameters designers have to consider, and that you can consider when looking for a new set of irons:

To begin, golf ball performance is determined by how much mass will be directly behind various points of impact on the face. The reason blade designs are still preferred by the best shotmakers is that these designs put mass directly behind the point of impact with the ball, thereby giving the golfer the maximum ability to control distance, trajectory, and shape of the shot.

Conversely, if the area behind the strike zone is thin, the club will likely be “hotter” but distance consistency will be compromised.

If a large portion of the mass is positioned lower in the clubhead, that design will launch higher, and likely with less spin. While this might be desirable in the lower lofts; high launch and low spin are probably not what you want in your higher-lofted scoring clubs, say those over 37-39 degrees, and particularly not with your wedges.

If mass is concentrated in the center of the clubhead from heel to toe, center strikes will be extremely solid and repeatable, but misses toward the toe will be more compromised than a design that has the mass more evenly distributed across the entire clubhead.

If some of the mass is distributed toward the low toe area, that club will be more forgiving of toe mis-hits.
Thin, fast faces and hollow or foam-filled construction is the rage now, but the trade-off is losing some distance precision in exchange for more distance (which comes from higher launch and less spin).

Another modern development is the use of heavy tungsten inserts low in the clubhead, which adds to the higher loft and lower spin distance formula – that might be desirable in the longer irons, but that’s exactly the opposite of what you want in the scoring clubs.

Big wide soles were more the rage a while back than they are now, but the wider the sole, the lower the mass distribution, so the higher the launch angle and the lower the spin. And these super wide sole designs are not very good for tighter turf conditions.

All golf clubhead designs are bound by two distinct principles – gear effect and smash factor.

Gear effect determines the trajectory and spin the golf ball will take. The higher the clubhead mass is distributed (i.e. blade designs), the lower the ball flight and higher the spin rates. Likewise, the more mass that is distributed toward the toe or heel from the strike point, the more likely the ball will curve back to the center.

Smash factor is the efficiency of transfer of clubhead speed to ball speed. Every club has one perfect point of impact that maximizes smash factor and that transfer of energy begins to deteriorate as impact is moved away from that point. That’s why you get occasional “heaters” off most thin-faced irons and see significant distance loss on more traditional blades. It’s also why those high-face misses with traditional wedge designs just pop-up with greatly reduced distance and spin.

I hope this has been enlightening and helpful.

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