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Opinion & Analysis

Fantasy Preview: 2018 The Players Championship

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The so-called “Fifth Major” gets underway this week, and it boasts one of the best fields of the year. One hundred and forty four players will do battle at TPC Sawgrass, a venue that is known for delivering drama. At less than 7,200 yards, the Stadium Course isn’t one of the longer courses on the PGA Tour. There is also no distinct advantage for longer hitters off the tee. The likes of Dustin Johnson and Bubba Watson have never managed to get themselves into contention at TPC Sawgrass, and a lot of that has to do with the importance of placement off the tee as opposed to pure power.

The Stadium Course is a track for ball strikers, and that will be a key area to focus on this week along with Par-4 and Par-5 scoring. Changes were made to the course in 2017, most notably the 12th hole which is now a risk/reward driveable par 4. Last year, Si Woo Kim showed incredible poise to take the title, shooting a total of 10-under par to win by three strokes.

Selected Tournament Odds (via Bet365)

  • Jason Day 14/1
  • Rory McIlroy 14/1
  • Jordan Spieth 16/1
  • Justin Thomas 16/1
  • Dustin Johnson 18/1
  • Rickie Fowler 20/1
  • Jon Rahm 25/1

When discussing excellent ball strikers, Henrik Stenson (28/1, DK Price $8,800) is a name that is bound to come up. The Swede has always been a supreme ball striker, and it’s no surprise that in his last 50 rounds he ranks sixth in this field in that department, while over his previous eight rounds he ranks first. Stenson surprisingly missed the cut at the Valspar Championship earlier in the year, but since then his form has been excellent. He’s posted three consecutive top-10 finishes coming into this event.

None of his top-10 finishes was more impressive than his T-5 finish at The Masters. Augusta has never been a good course Stenson. In fact, he had failed to post a top-10 finish at Augusta in his previous 12 starts before 2018. This year was different, however, and his ability to perform at a course that is not suited to him shows how well he is currently playing.

Over his previous eight rounds, Stenson ranks both second in Strokes Gained-Approach and Strokes Gained-Tee to Green. For the season, he leads the field in Par-4 scoring average. All very positive signs. Stenson has also been playing the Par 5’s well this year, and he ranks T-16 in Par-5 scoring average.

With his game seemingly close to its peak, the arrival of The Players Championship will undoubtedly please the Swede, whose record at TPC Sawgrass is excellent. As well as winning the title here back in 2009, Stenson’s recent form is very solid, too. He has made five of his last six cuts, and he has finished in the top-20 on four occasions. Stenson has the course knowledge and the form to pose a considerable threat once again at Sawgrass this week.

Coming off the back of two mediocre results, you wouldn’t expect to see much enthusiasm for Tiger Woods (40/1,DK Price $8,600). Despite his modest finish at the Wells Fargo Championship, there was a lot of encouragement for Woods. His inability to get into contention last week can be attributed to his putting, which was his worst putting performance in years. Woods dropped a massive 5.8 strokes on the greens at Quail Hollow, and it’s not something you should expect to see again. Off the Tee, however, Woods had his best week since 2012, gaining 3 Strokes-Off the Tee. His iron game, which went missing at Augusta, was also back to its best.

Just like at the Valspar Championship, the shorter layout of the Stadium Course could help Woods this week, too. Woods ranks fourth in the field this week for Strokes Gained-Approaching the Green over his last 12 rounds, and a golf course that demands less than driver off the tee for many of the holes could be a significant advantage for Woods.

Woods also plays Pete Dye-designed golf courses very well. In his previous 24 rounds on Pete Dye-designed courses, he ranks 8th in this field for Strokes Gained-Total. Woods has won this Championship twice in the past, and three events after he went off as one of the favorites for the Masters he looks undervalued to perform well here once again this week.

Bryson DeChambeau (50/1, DK Price $8,300) is getting closer and closer to winning in 2018. Last week, he finished solo 4th, which made it his third top-5 in his previous four events. DeChambeau’s iron play at the moment is imperious. Over his last 12 rounds, DeChambeau ranks first in Ball Striking and first in Strokes Gained-Approaching the Green. The Californian is also putting great, and he sits seventh in this field for Strokes Gained-Putting over his last 12 rounds.

It will be DeChambeau’s first appearance at The Players, and that is of some concern. But the likes of Kevin Kisner and Si-Woo Kim have recently excelled here despite having little course experience, and DeChambeau is certainly playing well enough to do the same. Another reason I like him this week is his Par-5 scoring. DeChambeau is 2nd on Tour for Par-5 Scoring Average this year with an impressive 4.48 average. Just as I said last week, there is no reason to desert the man with the hot hand right now, and he looks to be a good value once again.

Despite missing the cut last week at the Wells Fargo, Kevin Kisner (80/1, DK Price $8,000) has played some excellent golf in 2018. Kisner was a runner-up at the WGC-Matchplay and then collected a top-10 finish at the RBC Heritage. He also performed very well alongside Scott Brown at the Zurich Classic, where the duo held the 54-hole lead. There are no Strokes Gained statistics recorded for the WGC-Matchplay or the Zurich Classic, which makes it difficult when trying to analyze Kisner.

Despite his last two disappointing performances at The Players, Sawgrass is undoubtedly an excellent fit for Kisner. He proved that in 2015 where he came agonizingly close to claiming the title. Over his previous 24 rounds on Pete Dye courses, Kisner is ranked 71st in the field for Strokes Gained-Total. Yet, when you factor in courses that are less than 7,200 yards and designed by Pete Dye, he makes a massive jump up to 14th.

Recommended Plays

  • Henrik Stenson 28/1, DK Price $8,800
  • Tiger Woods 40/1, DK Price $8,600
  • Bryson DeChambeau 50/1, DK Price $8,300
  • Kevin Kisner 80/1, DK Price $8,000
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Gianni is the Managing Editor at GolfWRX. He can be contacted at [email protected].

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

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The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

  • 2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
  • 2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
  • 2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
  • 2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
  • 2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
  • 2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 LIV Adelaide betting preview: Cam Smith ready for big week down under

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After having four of the top twelve players on the leaderboard at The Masters, LIV Golf is set for their fifth event of the season: LIV Adelaide. 

For both LIV fans and golf fans in Australia, LIV Adelaide is one of the most anticipated events of the year. With 35,000 people expected to attend each day of the tournament, the Grange Golf Club will be crawling with fans who are passionate about the sport of golf. The 12th hole, better known as “the watering hole”, is sure to have the rowdiest of the fans cheering after a long day of drinking some Leishman Lager.  

The Grange Golf Club is a par-72 that measures 6,946 yards. The course features minimal resistance, as golfers went extremely low last season. In 2023, Talor Gooch shot consecutive rounds of 62 on Thursday and Friday, giving himself a gigantic cushion heading into championship Sunday. Things got tight for a while, but in the end, the Oklahoma State product was able to hold off The Crushers’ Anirban Lahiri for a three-shot victory. 

The Four Aces won the team competition with the Range Goats finishing second. 

*All Images Courtesy of LIV Golf*

Past Winners at LIV Adelaide

  • 2023: Talor Gooch (-19)

Stat Leaders Through LIV Miami

Green in Regulation

  1. Richard Bland
  2. Jon Rahm
  3. Paul Casey

Fairways Hit

  1. Abraham Ancer
  2. Graeme McDowell
  3. Henrik Stenson

Driving Distance

  1. Bryson DeChambeau
  2. Joaquin Niemann
  3. Dean Burmester

Putting

  1. Cameron Smith
  2. Louis Oosthuizen
  3. Matt Jones

2024 LIV Adelaide Picks

Cameron Smith +1400 (DraftKings)

When I pulled up the odds for LIV Adelaide, I was more than a little surprised to see multiple golfers listed ahead of Cameron Smith on the betting board. A few starts ago, Cam finished runner-up at LIV Hong Kong, which is a golf course that absolutely suits his eye. Augusta National in another course that Smith could roll out of bed and finish in the top-ten at, and he did so two weeks ago at The Masters, finishing T6.

At Augusta, he gained strokes on the field on approach, off the tee (slightly), and of course, around the green and putting. Smith able to get in the mix at a major championship despite coming into the week feeling under the weather tells me that his game is once again rounding into form.

The Grange Golf Club is another course that undoubtedly suits the Australian. Smith is obviously incredibly comfortable playing in front of the Aussie faithful and has won three Australian PGA Championship’s. The course is very short and will allow Smith to play conservative off the tee, mitigating his most glaring weakness. With birdies available all over the golf course, there’s a chance the event turns into a putting contest, and there’s no one on the planet I’d rather have in one of those than Cam Smith.

Louis Oosthuizen +2200 (DraftKings)

Louis Oosthuizen has simply been one of the best players on LIV in the 2024 seas0n. The South African has finished in the top-10 on the LIV leaderboard in three of his five starts, with his best coming in Jeddah, where he finished T2. Perhaps more impressively, Oosthuizen finished T7 at LIV Miami, which took place at Doral’s “Blue Monster”, an absolutely massive golf course. Given that Louis is on the shorter side in terms of distance off the tee, his ability to play well in Miami shows how dialed he is with the irons this season.

In addition to the LIV finishes, Oosthuizen won back-to-back starts on the DP World Tour in December at the Alfred Dunhill Championship and the Mauritus Open. He also finished runner-up at the end of February in the International Series Oman. The 41-year-old has been one of the most consistent performers of 2024, regardless of tour.

For the season, Louis ranks 4th on LIV in birdies made, T9 in fairways hit and first in putting. He ranks 32nd in driving distance, but that won’t be an issue at this short course. Last season, he finished T11 at the event, but was in decent position going into the final round but fell back after shooting 70 while the rest of the field went low. This season, Oosthuizen comes into the event in peak form, and the course should be a perfect fit for his smooth swing and hot putter this week.

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 1

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Of all the clubs in our bags, wedges are almost always the simplest in construction and, therefore, the easiest to analyze what might make one work differently from another if you know what to look for.

Wedges are a lot less mysterious than drivers, of course, as the major brands are working with a lot of “pixie dust” inside these modern marvels. That’s carrying over more to irons now, with so many new models featuring internal multi-material technologies, and almost all of them having a “badge” or insert in the back to allow more complex graphics while hiding the actual distribution of mass.

But when it comes to wedges, most on the market today are still single pieces of molded steel, either cast or forged into that shape. So, if you look closely at where the mass is distributed, it’s pretty clear how that wedge is going to perform.

To start, because of their wider soles, the majority of the mass of almost any wedge is along the bottom third of the clubhead. So, the best wedge shots are always those hit between the 2nd and 5th grooves so that more mass is directly behind that impact. Elite tour professionals practice incessantly to learn to do that consistently, wearing out a spot about the size of a penny right there. If impact moves higher than that, the face is dramatically thinner, so smash factor is compromised significantly, which reduces the overall distance the ball will fly.

Every one of us, tour players included, knows that maddening shot that we feel a bit high on the face and it doesn’t go anywhere, it’s not your fault.

If your wedges show a wear pattern the size of a silver dollar, and centered above the 3rd or 4th groove, you are not getting anywhere near the same performance from shot to shot. Robot testing proves impact even two to three grooves higher in the face can cause distance loss of up to 35 to 55 feet with modern ‘tour design’ wedges.

In addition, as impact moves above the center of mass, the golf club principle of gear effect causes the ball to fly higher with less spin. Think of modern drivers for a minute. The “holy grail” of driving is high launch and low spin, and the driver engineers are pulling out all stops to get the mass as low in the clubhead as possible to optimize this combination.

Where is all the mass in your wedges? Low. So, disregarding the higher lofts, wedges “want” to launch the ball high with low spin – exactly the opposite of what good wedge play requires penetrating ball flight with high spin.

While almost all major brand wedges have begun putting a tiny bit more thickness in the top portion of the clubhead, conventional and modern ‘tour design’ wedges perform pretty much like they always have. Elite players learn to hit those crisp, spinny penetrating wedge shots by spending lots of practice time learning to consistently make contact low in the face.

So, what about grooves and face texture?

Grooves on any club can only do so much, and no one has any material advantage here. The USGA tightly defines what we manufacturers can do with grooves and face texture, and modern manufacturing techniques allow all of us to push those limits ever closer. And we all do. End of story.

Then there’s the topic of bounce and grinds, the most complex and confusing part of the wedge formula. Many top brands offer a complex array of sole configurations, all of them admittedly specialized to a particular kind of lie or turf conditions, and/or a particular divot pattern.

But if you don’t play the same turf all the time, and make the same size divot on every swing, how would you ever figure this out?

The only way is to take any wedge you are considering and play it a few rounds, hitting all the shots you face and observing the results. There’s simply no other way.

So, hopefully this will inspire a lively conversation in our comments section, and I’ll chime in to answer any questions you might have.

And next week, I’ll dive into the rest of the wedge formula. Yes, shafts, grips and specifications are essential, too.

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