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How many Greens in Regulation should you be hitting based on your handicap?

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What exactly is a Green-in-Regulation (GIR)?

This may seem like a silly question. It certainly did to me until I recently met with two of my long-time clients — prominent golf instructors — and learned that they both (independently of each other) had been coaching their elite juniors that a GIR meant that an approach shot was successful. REALLY guys?

To be clear, a GIR is a ball reaching the putting surface in two or more strokes less than par, regardless of how it gets there. A few examples of GIR’s:

  • A Par 5 green reached in two shots.
  • A Par 5 missed in two but the short game shot hit on the green in three.
  • A Par 4 green driven or reached in one or two shots.
  • A Par 3 tee shot that comes to rest on the green.

How do I know the Number of GIR’s players should hit?

I developed ShotByShot.com, a Strokes-Gained analysis website.  We have been providing Strokes Gained analysis to players at all levels of the game since 1992,  collecting more than 320,000 rounds from thousands of players in the process.

What is so important about GIR’s?

In my opinion, GIR’s is the most important of the Old School, one-dimensional traditional stats. ShotByShot.com replaced these dinosaur stats with a more dynamic and informative analysis methodology – now known as Strokes Gained.  Those that have read my previous articles or visited my website will know these old stats as:

  • Fairways Hit
  • Sand Saves
  • # Putts
  • # Putts per GIR

In the ShotByShot.com program, Fairways Hit has been retained, but augmented by five categories of the severity of the fairways missed. (See my recent article explaining this further: How valuable is hitting fairways, really?) I kept GIR’s as they are an important positive in the game. First, it is an accomplishment to have been efficient enough to reach the green in regulation.  Second, is always represents some sort of a birdie opportunity.

The Numbers?

The GIR numbers below represent the number hit by each handicap group in the rounds when they play to their handicap, or the BEST 10 of their most recent 20 rounds. In other words, if you strive to get to Scratch (0 handicap), your best rounds should average about 12 GIR’s.

Finally, you might ask how could the 0-2 handicap group hit virtually the same Number of GIR’s as the PGA Tour average?  Here are a few reasons:

  • The dramatic difference in the length of the courses played by the pros vs. amateurs.
  • Pros tend to attack pins looking for birdies while amateurs learn to excel through consistency.

For a complete analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of your game, log onto ShotByShot.com.

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In 1989, Peter Sanders founded Golf Research Associates, LP, creating what is now referred to as Strokes Gained Analysis. His goal was to design and market a new standard of statistically based performance analysis programs using proprietary computer models. A departure from “traditional stats,” the program provided analysis with answers, supported by comparative data. In 2006, the company’s website, ShotByShot.com, was launched. It provides interactive, Strokes Gained analysis for individual golfers and more than 150 instructors and coaches that use the program to build and monitor their player groups. Peter has written, or contributed to, more than 60 articles in major golf publications including Golf Digest, Golf Magazine and Golf for Women. From 2007 through 2013, Peter was an exclusive contributor and Professional Advisor to Golf Digest and GolfDigest.com. Peter also works with PGA Tour players and their coaches to interpret the often confusing ShotLink data. Zach Johnson has been a client for nearly five years. More recently, Peter has teamed up with Smylie Kaufman’s swing coach, Tony Ruggiero, to help guide Smylie’s fast-rising career.

26 Comments

26 Comments

  1. henry

    Jun 10, 2018 at 6:09 am

    This is some solid advice. Though I dont know if I would ever throw a $20 on the ground for missing a putt on the practice green. I like the basis though. I keep a towel under my lead armpit for just about every swing, and the second I feel tired, I take it to the putting green. But i improved a lot by using this product. https://bit.ly/2HAGq7v

  2. JJD

    Jun 4, 2018 at 5:24 pm

    Geez, I’m in the 0-5 handicap range and I’m lucky to hit 6 or 7 greens. I need to work on that.

  3. Scott

    May 14, 2018 at 4:20 pm

    Thank you for the stats. This article is spot on. Sure there are some irregularities with small green courses or people that can’t putt hitting greens and not scoring, but I score better when I hit greens. I am sure most amateurs score better with a putter in their hand then with a wedge.

  4. Mike

    May 14, 2018 at 10:10 am

    I think this also highlights how good of putters PGA tour pros are, as well as how good their short games are in general. I’ve been a 0-3 handicap for years and used to track my GIR, and about 12 was my average. However, my scoring was more like averaging 75-76, because I had/have a mediocre short game at best and made few birdie putts. I used to joke that a tour pro would probably average about 69 from where I hit it tee to green, and that is probably true….

  5. OB

    May 9, 2018 at 3:28 pm

    the comment on pro’s attack flags and ams learning to be consistent is nonsense, and no basis in fact.

  6. Si

    May 8, 2018 at 5:00 am

    I don’t always hit GIR….but when I do I 3 putt!!!

  7. chris Jensen

    May 4, 2018 at 3:57 pm

    I agree with the poster who counts the Big GIR and includes the fringe, or what my playing partners refer to as “handy”; ie not on the green but still fairly near the pin and possibly make-able.

    Is it better to be on the green a long way from the hole, or relatively near the pin, just off the green?

    As a young junior I could hit 12-15 greens fairly consistently by playing away from the pin in most situations, and being happy with stress free pars. I’d always end up 3 putting a few though, and I’d only make a few birdies on average because I was 20-30 feet a lot. I seldom could break 70 but rarely shot over 75 or 76.

    As an older player, I’ve learned that taking dead aim on most pins is far more fun and will yield a lot more makeable birdies. When I miss the green it’s usually In the general vicinity of the pin, pin high, though often short-sided. I feel pretty good about my odds of getting up and down from there compared to putting from 50 or 60 feet. And when I do hit the shot the way I want to, Ive got a great look at birdie.

    Nothing worse than playing away from the pin, hitting a perfect shot, and then having 30 or 40 feet for birdie.

    Another point is distance control. I can hit all 18 greens, but if I am constantly coming up on the front of the green when the pins are middle or Back, it’s not going to be a great scoring round. Few realistic chances for birdie and lots of 3-putt potential. Getting the ball all the way back to the pin is critical to success

    Another point to missed GIR is when you hit a poor tee shot and have no realistic shot at the green, blocked out, water, lost ball, etc. So to hit more greens, hit more fairways, Total Driving has a huge influence on GIR.

    So in summary, GIR is less important to me than how close to the hole I end up whether you hit or miss the green. (Obviously I’d rather be on AND close) Obviously some risks are not worth taking in certain situations and some up and downs are impossible from the wrong spot.
    when to be aggressive require careful thought and execution.

    try to set yourself up with good angles off the Tee to attack the pins, back it up with a confident short game when you miss, and try to make lots of birdies. You may shoot high on your bad days, but your good days will be much much lower.

  8. Bob Jones

    May 4, 2018 at 2:53 pm

    I believe for higher handicap golfers GIR is a completely irrelevant stat. What is more important at that level of golf is getting the ball green-high in regulation (GHIR), which is measure of how efficiently you play from tee to green (no OB, lost balls, water balls, tops, chunks, recovery strokes, etc.). Once your GHIR is routinely below 40 you can switch to GIR because you are good enough to start having them be more of an expectation to a certain extent than a matter of luck.

  9. James T

    May 4, 2018 at 12:17 pm

    I count BGIR’s. “Big Greens In Regulation”. If I’m on the fringe or just off with a fairly flat lie I still stand a good chance of getting it up and down… sometimes even a chip in! For me, personally, this is a better and more reliable stat. So if I hit 13-14 BGIR’s I stand a good chance of shooting around or slightly over par. Although only 10 of those may have been GIR’s.

  10. TheCityGame

    May 4, 2018 at 11:52 am

    GIR is much more aligned with “what you shoot” than what handicap you are. Many golfers play courses rated in between 68 and 75.

    If you’re hitting 10 greens on a CR 70 course and you’re a 4 who wants to get to scratch, you better start hitting more greens, or find a way to hit 10 greens on a longer/tougher course.

  11. al

    May 4, 2018 at 11:20 am

    Years ago one of the golf mags had a similar study and said if you want to shoot 80 you need about 8 GIR and for every additional GIR from there you hit you can average 2 shots better per round. Since then I have kept a lot of stats on my rounds and the stats are legit. I have averaged between 12-13 GIR for a long while and I fall in the +3 to +1 hdcp range. My really low rounds are usually a combination of more GIR and fewer putts- the poor rounds less GIR and more putts including 3 putts. So I tell players who want to improve if they track one stat over time it is GIR. I just finished a city tourney and hit 25 greens in 36 holes and shot -3 for the event. Very “balanced” score based on my ball striking. The year I won the event I hit 31 greens and shot -13 and putted great the last round.

  12. 2putttom

    May 4, 2018 at 10:19 am

    a good read and the graph gave me the info i was looking for and encouragement I need.

  13. larrybud

    May 3, 2018 at 10:19 pm

    I must be a short game wizard. I was a 4-5 when I was hitting 7 a round.

    Now I’m bet 2-3 and hit 11, however my “bad” differentials are much better.

  14. Yoker

    May 3, 2018 at 8:42 pm

    I got WITB full of fantastic clubs and I still can’t break 90… and my GIR is lousy… what’s wrong with my clubs??!!!

  15. Zach

    May 3, 2018 at 5:44 pm

    This appears to be fairly consistent with my game at least. 14 handicap, I usually hit 3-4 greens per side or so. This has me pegged at 6.9. I can also easily hit 7 on one 9 and miss all of them the next 9.

  16. Obee

    May 3, 2018 at 4:27 pm

    Overwhelmingly dependent on the type of course you play, be you pro or am..

    10 – 15 years ago as a solid +2 to +3, I averaged 12+ greens per round, but the course I played was 6500, with soft greens. I would have averaged only 10 if I played my current course back then at 7200, 75.8/147.

    You mention that in your section about pros versus plus-cap ams, but an amateur 7 handicapper with a home course of 6250 yards is generally going to hit lots more greens than a 7-capper at a course that’s 6950.

  17. Joe

    May 3, 2018 at 2:38 pm

    These numbers look about how I would think they would. I would say that the biggest change for players within the single-digit handicap range is course management and learning to play away from sucker pins. GIR tends to be reflective of better course management. Not at all surprised to see PGA Tour #’s lower than the best group of players, by handicap, for exactly the reason the author stated.

  18. Jerry

    May 3, 2018 at 1:16 pm

    Curious how many WRX’s match up, I know that my number relate fairly closely to these stats for my handicap.

  19. ViagrGolfer

    May 3, 2018 at 12:24 pm

    Now that I got a set of PXGs in my bag and I’m gonna put a Stability shaft to my Scotty for a stiffer putter with more feel I am confident my GIRs will shoot up magnificently.

    • acew/7iron

      May 3, 2018 at 8:09 pm

      Like the VH song when DLR says:

      “Let us know…How you do!”

    • James T

      May 3, 2018 at 8:39 pm

      A Stability shaft in your Scotty won’t help your GIR’s. But it might help your score.

      • lance

        May 4, 2018 at 2:48 pm

        A stiffer shaft will always help you “score”….. ºUº

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s LIV Golf Singapore betting preview: Course specialist ready to thrive once again

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After another strong showing in Australia, LIV Golf will head to Sentosa Golf Club in Singapore looking to build off of what was undoubtedly their best event to date.

Sentosa Golf Club sits on the southern tip of Singapore and is one of the most beautiful courses in the world. The course is more than just incredible scenically; it was also rated 55th in Golf Digest’s top-100 courses in 2022-2023 and has been consistently regarded as one of the best courses in Asia. Prior to being part of the LIV rotation, the course hosted the Singapore Open every year since 2005.

Sentosa Golf Club is a par 71 measuring 7,406 yards. The course will require precise ball striking and some length off the tee. It’s possible to go low due to the pristine conditions, but there are also plenty of hazards and difficult spots on the course that can bring double bogey into play in a hurry. The Bermudagrass greens are perfectly manicured, and the course has spent millions on the sub-air system to keep the greens rolling fast. I spoke to Asian Tour player, Travis Smyth, who described the greens as “the best [he’s] ever played.”

Davis Love III, who competed in a Singapore Open in 2019, also gushed over the condition of the golf course.

“I love the greens. They are fabulous,” the 21-time PGA Tour winner said.

Love III also spoke about other aspects of the golf course.

“The greens are great; the fairways are perfect. It is a wonderful course, and it’s tricky off the tee.”

“It’s a long golf course, and you get some long iron shots. It takes somebody hitting it great to hit every green even though they are big.”

As Love III said, the course can be difficult off the tee due to the length of the course and the trouble looming around every corner. It will take a terrific ball striking week to win at Sentosa Golf Club.

In his pre-tournament press conference last season, Phil Mickelson echoed many of the same sentiments.

“To play Sentosa effectively, you’re going to have a lot of shots from 160 to 210, a lot of full 6-, 7-, 8-iron shots, and you need to hit those really well and you need to drive the ball well.”

Golfers who excel from tee to green and can dial in their longer irons will have a massive advantage this week.

Stat Leaders at LIV Golf Adelaide:

Fairways Hit

1.) Louis Oosthuizen

2.) Anirban Lahiri

3.) Jon Rahm

4.) Brendan Steele

5.) Cameron Tringale

Greens in Regulation

1.) Brooks Koepka

2.) Brendan Steele

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Cameron Tringale

5.) Anirban Lahiri

Birdies Made

1.) Brendan Steele

2.) Dean Burmester

3.) Thomas Pieters

4.) Patrick Reed

5.) Carlos Ortiz

LIV Golf Individual Standings:

1.) Joaquin Niemann

2.) Jon Rahm

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Louis Oosthuizen

5.) Abraham Ancer

LIV Golf Team Standings:

1.) Crushers

2.) Legion XIII

3.) Torque

4.) Stinger GC

5.) Ripper GC

LIV Golf Singapore Picks

Sergio Garcia +3000 (DraftKings)

Sergio Garcia is no stranger to Sentosa Golf Club. The Spaniard won the Singapore Open in 2018 by five strokes and lost in a playoff at LIV Singapore last year to scorching hot Talor Gooch. Looking at the course setup, it’s no surprise that a player like Sergio has played incredible golf here. He’s long off the tee and is one of the better long iron players in the world when he’s in form. Garcia is also statistically a much better putter on Bermudagrass than he is on other putting surfaces. He’s putt extremely well on Sentosa’s incredibly pure green complexes.

This season, Garcia has two runner-up finishes, both of them being playoff losses. Both El Camaleon and Doral are courses he’s had success at in his career. The Spaniard is a player who plays well at his tracks, and Sentosa is one of them. I believe Sergio will get himself in the mix this week. Hopefully the third time is a charm in Singapore.

Paul Casey +3300 (FanDuel)

Paul Casey is in the midst of one of his best seasons in the five years or so. The results recently have been up and down, but he’s shown that when he’s on a golf course that suits his game, he’s amongst the contenders.

This season, Casey has finishes of T5 (LIV Las Vegas), T2 (LIV Hong Kong), and a 6th at the Singapore Classic on the DP World Tour. At his best, the Englishman is one of the best long iron players in the world, which makes him a strong fit for Sentosa. Despite being in poor form last season, he was able to fire a Sunday 63, which shows he can low here at the course.

It’s been three years since Casey has won a tournament (Omega Dubai Desert Classic in 2021), but he’s been one of the top players on LIV this season and I think he can get it done at some point this season.

Mito Pereira +5000 (Bet365)

Since Mito Pereira’s unfortunate demise at the 2022 PGA Championship, he’s been extremely inconsistent. However, over the past few months, the Chilean has played well on the International Series as well as his most recent LIV start. Mito finished 8th at LIV Adelaide, which was his best LIV finish this season.

Last year, Pereira finished 5th at LIV Singapore, shooting fantastic rounds of 67-66-66. It makes sense why Mito would like Sentosa, as preeminent ball strikers tend to rise to the challenge of the golf course. He’s a great long iron player who is long and straight off the tee.

Mito has some experience playing in Asia and is one of the most talented players on LIV who’s yet to get in the winner’s circle. I have questions about whether or not he can come through once in contention, but if he gets there, I’m happy to roll the dice.

Andy Ogletree +15000 (DraftKings)

Andy Ogletree is a player I expected to have a strong 2024 but struggled early in his first full season on LIV. After failing to crack the top-25 in any LIV event this year, the former U.S. Amateur champion finally figured things out, finished in a tie for 3rd at LIV Adelaide.

Ogletree should be incredible comfortable playing in Singapore. He won the International Series Qatar last year and finished T3 at the International Series Singapore. The 26-year-old was arguably the best player on the Asian Tour in 2023 and has been fantastic in the continent over the past 18 months.

If Ogletree has indeed found form, he looks to be an amazing value at triple-digit odds.

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Lessons from the worst golf instructor in America

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In Tampa, there is a golf course that boasts carts that do not work, a water range, and a group of players none of which have any chance to break 80. The course is overseen by a staff of crusty men who have succeeded at nothing in life but ending up at the worst-run course in America. However, this place is no failure. With several other local courses going out of business — and boasting outstanding greens — the place is booked full.

While I came for the great greens, I stayed to watch our resident instructor; a poor-tempered, method teacher who caters to the hopeless. At first, it was simply hilarious. However, after months of listening and watching, something clicked. I realized I had a front-row seat to the worst golf instructor in America.

Here are some of my key takeaways.

Method Teacher

It is widely accepted that there are three types of golf instructors: system teachers, non-system teachers, and method teachers. Method teachers prescribe the same antidote for each student based on a preamble which teachers can learn in a couple day certification.

Method teaching allows anyone to be certified. This process caters to the lowest caliber instructor, creating the illusion of competency. This empowers these underqualified instructors with the moniker of “certified” to prey on the innocent and uninformed.

The Cult of Stack and Jilt

The Stack and Tilt website proudly boasts, “A golfer swings his hands inward in the backswing as opposed to straight back to 1) create power, similar to a field goal kicker moving his leg in an arc and 2) to promote a swing that is in-to-out, which produces a draw (and eliminates a slice).”

Now, let me tell you something, there is this law of the universe which says “energy can either be created or destroyed,” so either these guys are defying physics or they have no idea what they are taking about. Further, the idea that the first move of the backswing determines impact is conjecture with a splash of utter fantasy.

These are the pontifications of a method — a set of prescriptions applied to everyone with the hope of some success through the placebo effect. It is one thing for a naive student to believe, for a golf instructor to drink and then dispel this Kool-Aid is malpractice.

Fooled by Randomness

In flipping a coin, or even a March Madness bet, there is a 50-50 chance of success. In golf, especially for new players, results are asymmetric. Simply put: Anything can happen. The problem is that when bad instructors work with high handicappers, each and every shot gets its own diagnosis and prescription. Soon the student is overwhelmed.

Now here’s the sinister thing: The overwhelming information is by design. In this case, the coach is not trying to make you better, they are trying to make you reliant on them for information. A quasi Stockholm syndrome of codependency.

Practice

One of the most important scientists of the 20th century was Ivan Pavlov. As you might recall, he found that animals, including humans, could be conditioned into biological responses. In golf, the idea of practice has made millions of hackers salivate that they are one lesson or practice session from “the secret.”

Sunk Cost

The idea for the worst golf instructor is to create control and dependency so that clients ignore the sunk cost of not getting better. Instead, they are held hostage by the idea that they are one lesson or tip away from unlocking their potential.

Cliches

Cliches have the effect of terminating thoughts. However, they are the weapon of choice for this instructor. Add some hyperbole and students actually get no information. As a result, these players couldn’t play golf. When they did, they had no real scheme. With no idea what they are doing, they would descend into a spiral of no idea what to do, bad results, lower confidence, and running back to the lesson tee from more cliches.

The fact is that poor instruction is about conditioning players to become reliant members of your cult. To take away autonomy. To use practice as a form of control. To sell more golf lessons not by making people better but through the guise that without the teacher, the student can never reach their full potential. All under the umbrella of being “certified” (in a 2-day course!) and a melee of cliches.

This of course is not just happening at my muni but is a systemic problem around the country and around the world, the consequences of which are giving people a great reason to stop playing golf. But hey, at least it’s selling a lot of golf balls…

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

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The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

  • 2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
  • 2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
  • 2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
  • 2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
  • 2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
  • 2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

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