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Opinion & Analysis

The 3 best fantasy picks for the 2018 Houston Open

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The calm before the storm. The Golf Club of Houston Tournament Course hosts the Houston Open this week, the final event before the year’s first major. For the 19 players already in the field at Augusta, this will be their final tune up. The task for the rest of the field is simple; if they want to play in the Masters, they must win here.

The Houston Open has an underwhelming slot on the schedule, yet it’s an event that has made the most of that. The course is set up in some ways to replicate the challenge that next week will provide with short rough off the fairway and Bentgrass greens. Last year, Russell Henley stormed home with a final-round 65 to post 20-under par and defeat Sung Kang by three strokes.

Selected Tournament Odds (via Bet365)

  • Justin Rose 10/1
  • Rickie Fowler 10/1
  • Jordan Spieth 11/1
  • Phil Mickelson 11/1
  • Henrik Stenson 12/1
  • Daniel Berger 28/1
  • Luke List 28/1

With Augusta on the minds of many of the top players in the field this week, my strategy here is to look for sleepers. That’s not to say that one of the players from the top of the board isn’t worth backing, but with their high prices I’d be wary of them having one eye on next week. For example, Phil Mickelson who won here in 2011, but he has consistently played this event throughout his career as his final preparation for Augusta. Mickelson has stated that he uses this tournament as a competitive warm-up for Augusta National, taking driver on holes that he wouldn’t usually if he only had designs on winning the Houston Open.

Brandt Snedeker (80/1, DK Price $8,000) is one of those players in danger of missing the year’s first major. An injury riddled 2017 has seen him slide down the rankings, and he’s now in a position where he must win here to play in the Masters. Snedeker hasn’t played the Houston Open since 2013, and seeing him in the field this year proves just how desperate he is to drive down Magnolia Lane next week.

This year has been a mixed bag for Snedeker so far. Back-to-back top-25 finishes at Waste Management Phoenix Open and the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am looked to set him up nicely for the year, and he was right in the thick of it on Sunday afternoon at Valspar before a dismal final round sent him tumbling down the leaderboard. Despite that, there is enough to suggest that Snedeker can play well this week.

The Houston Open is an event that you can always count on getting quite a bit of wind, and in those conditions there aren’t many better than Snedeker, who shot a final-round 69 at Torrey Pines two years ago in conditions akin to a hurricane. If this course is to be used as a corollary to Augusta National, then that’s also a positive. Snedeker has a fine record at Augusta, where he has recorded five top-20 finishes in his 10 visits.

Despite missing two of his last three cuts, Snedeker is in the top third of the field for every major Strokes Gained category over his last 12 rounds, and he continues to putt as reliably as ever. He’s shown recently that his game is good enough to get into contention, and Bentgrass greens may play a huge factor this week. It’s the first time this year on Tour that players will putt on Bentgrass, and Snedeker over his last 50 rounds is ranked third for Strokes Gained Putting on them. The narrative sets up nicely for the Nashville native, and his price of 80/1 is more than acceptable.

Despite a little drop in form over the past couple of weeks, Scott Piercy (90/1, DK Price $7,500) has made an impressive start to 2018. With four top-25 finishes from his seven events played, it’s a little surprising that his price isn’t shorter this week. The reason I believe it should be lies directly in his form on the course. Scott has two top-25 finishes and one top-10 here in his last three visits. Whatever it is about this course, it fits his eye and he’ll be looking to add another impressive finish here this week.

Piercy’s 2018 has seen him produce sublime play from tee to green. In his last 24 rounds, the man from Las Vegas is No. 1 in the field for Strokes Gained Approaching the Green, sixth for Strokes Gained Tee to Green, and fourth for Ball Striking. The bad news is that the putter has been cold. On the greens, Piercy has lost strokes to the field in all but one of his events in 2018. It’s the only thing preventing him from getting into contention more often. Over his last 24 rounds, Piercy is 88th in Strokes Gained Putting in the field. But a return to Bentgrass greens could be just what gets him going. In his last 12 rounds on Bentgrass, he sits in the top third in the field for Strokes Gained Putting. Look for Scott to putt better this week, and if he does so then he should go well here in Houston.

Another player in sneaky good form is Sean O’Hair (100/1, DK Price $7,200). The likeable Texan backed up a T12 at Valspar with a T7 at Bay Hill. He now comes to his home state full of confidence and a course that he has played well in the past. Two years ago he posted a top-10 finish, and this year he’s coming in with his game seemingly in better shape.

Before the odds were revealed I was hoping to see his latest form go a little unnoticed, and the three-figure price available this week suggests that it has. Over his last eight rounds, O’Hair is sharp in all departments of his game. He ranks fifth in Strokes Gained Off the Tee, third in Strokes Gained Tee to Green, 12th in Ball Striking and 20th for his Short Game. All of this means that he is fourth in Strokes Gained Total and has been a huge success for DraftKings players, where he has gained the second most points in the field for his last two events.

O’Hair is another man that should be excited to get back onto Bentgrass greens. In his last 50 rounds on all surfaces, he ranks an average 78th in the field for Strokes Gained Putting. Yet, when you narrow this down to his performance solely on Bentgrass, he ranks 11th over the same period. He’s another I expect to see putt well this week, and I feel he offers the best value of the week.

Recommended Plays

  • Brandt Snedeker 80/1, DK Price $8,000
  • Scott Piercy 90/1, DK Price $7,500
  • Sean O’Hair 100/1, DK Price $7,200
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Gianni is the Managing Editor at GolfWRX. He can be contacted at [email protected].

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

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The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

  • 2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
  • 2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
  • 2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
  • 2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
  • 2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
  • 2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 LIV Adelaide betting preview: Cam Smith ready for big week down under

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After having four of the top twelve players on the leaderboard at The Masters, LIV Golf is set for their fifth event of the season: LIV Adelaide. 

For both LIV fans and golf fans in Australia, LIV Adelaide is one of the most anticipated events of the year. With 35,000 people expected to attend each day of the tournament, the Grange Golf Club will be crawling with fans who are passionate about the sport of golf. The 12th hole, better known as “the watering hole”, is sure to have the rowdiest of the fans cheering after a long day of drinking some Leishman Lager.  

The Grange Golf Club is a par-72 that measures 6,946 yards. The course features minimal resistance, as golfers went extremely low last season. In 2023, Talor Gooch shot consecutive rounds of 62 on Thursday and Friday, giving himself a gigantic cushion heading into championship Sunday. Things got tight for a while, but in the end, the Oklahoma State product was able to hold off The Crushers’ Anirban Lahiri for a three-shot victory. 

The Four Aces won the team competition with the Range Goats finishing second. 

*All Images Courtesy of LIV Golf*

Past Winners at LIV Adelaide

  • 2023: Talor Gooch (-19)

Stat Leaders Through LIV Miami

Green in Regulation

  1. Richard Bland
  2. Jon Rahm
  3. Paul Casey

Fairways Hit

  1. Abraham Ancer
  2. Graeme McDowell
  3. Henrik Stenson

Driving Distance

  1. Bryson DeChambeau
  2. Joaquin Niemann
  3. Dean Burmester

Putting

  1. Cameron Smith
  2. Louis Oosthuizen
  3. Matt Jones

2024 LIV Adelaide Picks

Cameron Smith +1400 (DraftKings)

When I pulled up the odds for LIV Adelaide, I was more than a little surprised to see multiple golfers listed ahead of Cameron Smith on the betting board. A few starts ago, Cam finished runner-up at LIV Hong Kong, which is a golf course that absolutely suits his eye. Augusta National in another course that Smith could roll out of bed and finish in the top-ten at, and he did so two weeks ago at The Masters, finishing T6.

At Augusta, he gained strokes on the field on approach, off the tee (slightly), and of course, around the green and putting. Smith able to get in the mix at a major championship despite coming into the week feeling under the weather tells me that his game is once again rounding into form.

The Grange Golf Club is another course that undoubtedly suits the Australian. Smith is obviously incredibly comfortable playing in front of the Aussie faithful and has won three Australian PGA Championship’s. The course is very short and will allow Smith to play conservative off the tee, mitigating his most glaring weakness. With birdies available all over the golf course, there’s a chance the event turns into a putting contest, and there’s no one on the planet I’d rather have in one of those than Cam Smith.

Louis Oosthuizen +2200 (DraftKings)

Louis Oosthuizen has simply been one of the best players on LIV in the 2024 seas0n. The South African has finished in the top-10 on the LIV leaderboard in three of his five starts, with his best coming in Jeddah, where he finished T2. Perhaps more impressively, Oosthuizen finished T7 at LIV Miami, which took place at Doral’s “Blue Monster”, an absolutely massive golf course. Given that Louis is on the shorter side in terms of distance off the tee, his ability to play well in Miami shows how dialed he is with the irons this season.

In addition to the LIV finishes, Oosthuizen won back-to-back starts on the DP World Tour in December at the Alfred Dunhill Championship and the Mauritus Open. He also finished runner-up at the end of February in the International Series Oman. The 41-year-old has been one of the most consistent performers of 2024, regardless of tour.

For the season, Louis ranks 4th on LIV in birdies made, T9 in fairways hit and first in putting. He ranks 32nd in driving distance, but that won’t be an issue at this short course. Last season, he finished T11 at the event, but was in decent position going into the final round but fell back after shooting 70 while the rest of the field went low. This season, Oosthuizen comes into the event in peak form, and the course should be a perfect fit for his smooth swing and hot putter this week.

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 1

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Of all the clubs in our bags, wedges are almost always the simplest in construction and, therefore, the easiest to analyze what might make one work differently from another if you know what to look for.

Wedges are a lot less mysterious than drivers, of course, as the major brands are working with a lot of “pixie dust” inside these modern marvels. That’s carrying over more to irons now, with so many new models featuring internal multi-material technologies, and almost all of them having a “badge” or insert in the back to allow more complex graphics while hiding the actual distribution of mass.

But when it comes to wedges, most on the market today are still single pieces of molded steel, either cast or forged into that shape. So, if you look closely at where the mass is distributed, it’s pretty clear how that wedge is going to perform.

To start, because of their wider soles, the majority of the mass of almost any wedge is along the bottom third of the clubhead. So, the best wedge shots are always those hit between the 2nd and 5th grooves so that more mass is directly behind that impact. Elite tour professionals practice incessantly to learn to do that consistently, wearing out a spot about the size of a penny right there. If impact moves higher than that, the face is dramatically thinner, so smash factor is compromised significantly, which reduces the overall distance the ball will fly.

Every one of us, tour players included, knows that maddening shot that we feel a bit high on the face and it doesn’t go anywhere, it’s not your fault.

If your wedges show a wear pattern the size of a silver dollar, and centered above the 3rd or 4th groove, you are not getting anywhere near the same performance from shot to shot. Robot testing proves impact even two to three grooves higher in the face can cause distance loss of up to 35 to 55 feet with modern ‘tour design’ wedges.

In addition, as impact moves above the center of mass, the golf club principle of gear effect causes the ball to fly higher with less spin. Think of modern drivers for a minute. The “holy grail” of driving is high launch and low spin, and the driver engineers are pulling out all stops to get the mass as low in the clubhead as possible to optimize this combination.

Where is all the mass in your wedges? Low. So, disregarding the higher lofts, wedges “want” to launch the ball high with low spin – exactly the opposite of what good wedge play requires penetrating ball flight with high spin.

While almost all major brand wedges have begun putting a tiny bit more thickness in the top portion of the clubhead, conventional and modern ‘tour design’ wedges perform pretty much like they always have. Elite players learn to hit those crisp, spinny penetrating wedge shots by spending lots of practice time learning to consistently make contact low in the face.

So, what about grooves and face texture?

Grooves on any club can only do so much, and no one has any material advantage here. The USGA tightly defines what we manufacturers can do with grooves and face texture, and modern manufacturing techniques allow all of us to push those limits ever closer. And we all do. End of story.

Then there’s the topic of bounce and grinds, the most complex and confusing part of the wedge formula. Many top brands offer a complex array of sole configurations, all of them admittedly specialized to a particular kind of lie or turf conditions, and/or a particular divot pattern.

But if you don’t play the same turf all the time, and make the same size divot on every swing, how would you ever figure this out?

The only way is to take any wedge you are considering and play it a few rounds, hitting all the shots you face and observing the results. There’s simply no other way.

So, hopefully this will inspire a lively conversation in our comments section, and I’ll chime in to answer any questions you might have.

And next week, I’ll dive into the rest of the wedge formula. Yes, shafts, grips and specifications are essential, too.

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