19th Hole
Did Tiger Woods screw up by hitting iron off the tee at the 72nd hole?
Tiger Woods, as we know, finished one stroke behind Paul Casey in his bid to return to the winner’s circle at the Valspar Championship.
Woods arrived at the 72nd hole needing birdie to tie Casey. Electing to avoid flirtation with fairway bunkers left and right, Woods hit a long iron 258 yards down the fairway, leaving himself a 185-yard approach shot to the back right pin. His approach shot ended up 38 feet, 11 inches, from the hole. Unsurprisingly considering the distance, he didn’t make the putt.
Hindsight is 20/20, of course, but some questioned Woods not taking on the bunkers with a 3-wood or driver, and thus allowing for the possibility of a much shorter approach shot he would have been statistically more likely to get close.
Scott Fawcett, founder of the Decade course management system, didn’t question Woods’ decision however. In fact, Fawcett took to Twitter to laud Woods’ decision. The responses to Fawcett’s tweet were both interesting and insightful, spearheaded by our own Rich Hunt.
You can find a portion of this excellent conversation below.
Tiger is the GOAT for a host of reasons, his course management is likely the top of the list though. How many Tour players could go to 18 *needing* birdie and NOT ABANDON HOW THEY PLAYED THE HOLE ALL WEEK? #GOATdiscipline pic.twitter.com/ZGNPWk6mDP
— Scott Fawcett (@scottfawcett) March 11, 2018
My problem is the strategy on 18 today. Had to have birdie, lays up 185 yds. 185 yds/fwy yields a Tour average prox 2 cup of 33.3 feet which has make % of ~6%. A 'good shot' from 185/fwy for Tour players is about 27.8 feet which has a make % of ~8%.
— Hunt Golf Analytics (@Richie3Jack) March 12, 2018
If he hits driver ~50 yards past his lay up shot (135 yds), a 'very good shot' would put him to about 16 feet which has a 20% make percentage.
— Hunt Golf Analytics (@Richie3Jack) March 12, 2018
Basically gave himself a 6% chance to make birdie by laying up. Had greater odds of finding the fairway with the driver than making birdie by laying up. Again, this is a different situation. He had to make birdie or he goes home unlike the 3 previous rounds.
— Hunt Golf Analytics (@Richie3Jack) March 12, 2018
Essentially, laying up is the right move over the long haul because the projected score is lower for Tiger if he lays up off the tee than if he hits driver. But, this wasn't a 'long haul' situation. He had to have birdie and laying up greatly hurt his odds in doing so.
— Hunt Golf Analytics (@Richie3Jack) March 12, 2018
If he had a 40% chance of hitting the fairway, that's greater than a 6% chance of making birdie by laying up. Like I said, over the long haul it's wise for him to lay-up on 18 cuz expected scores will be lower. But when you have to have a birdie, laying up is a bad choice here
— Hunt Golf Analytics (@Richie3Jack) March 12, 2018
This was a different situation. If I'm playing 18 in any other situation, the odds are to lay up because of the narrow fwy and the trees. But this situation was make birdie or lose. Having 185 yds out, even if you WELL above the Tour avg gives little odds of making birdie.
— Hunt Golf Analytics (@Richie3Jack) March 12, 2018
And as promising as Tiger looks…he's not the performer with the irons that he was in his prime years. I was actually surprised so many people thought he would win today given his track record of not winning events coming from behind.
— Hunt Golf Analytics (@Richie3Jack) March 12, 2018
I agree with this. I just don't think that in THIS particular situation it applies. Kinda like the basketball team that is down by 3, goes for the easy 2 pt layup with less than 5 seconds to go instead of shooting a 3. They may be a great team but it was poor strategy & they lost
— Hunt Golf Analytics (@Richie3Jack) March 12, 2018
Absolutely. It's a completely different scenario. He's down by 1, he has to make at least a birdie. Needs to play the shot that will give him the best chance of making birdie. If he had almost NO chance of hitting the fwy w/driver I can see. But that wasn't nearly the case.
— Hunt Golf Analytics (@Richie3Jack) March 12, 2018
Odds based on performance are based on past history. It's very unlikely he would hit a 185 yd shot to 3.3 feet while it's much more likely he would hit that shot closer to 33 feet. I don't understand people thinking it was impossible for him to find the fwy with the driver.
— Hunt Golf Analytics (@Richie3Jack) March 12, 2018
Sure. But if he hits it to 25 feet that's still a really good shot from that distance and odds are low. And this year Tiger has made ONE putt from outside 25 feet the entire season (1.85%)…which occurred on the 71st hole.
— Hunt Golf Analytics (@Richie3Jack) March 12, 2018
What do you think, GolfWRX members, do you agree with Woods’ approach off the tee at the final hole?
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19th Hole
Butch Harmon reveals what he worked on with Rory McIlroy during visit earlier this year
While speaking on the “Son of a Butch” Podcast, legendary swing coach Butch Harmon revealed what he worked on with Rory McIlroy when the four-time major champion went to visit him after the Players Championship this season.
Butch Harmon on what he worked on with Rory:
“The work I did with him wasn’t a tremendous amount of changing what he did, it was his attitude and the way he played certain shots. From 150 yards and in he made a full swing like he was hitting a driver and I wanted him to make…
— Matt Vincenzi (@MattVincenziPGA) May 15, 2024
“The work I did with him wasn’t a tremendous amount of changing what he did, it was his attitude and the way he played certain shots. From 150 yards and in he made a full swing like he was hitting a driver and I wanted him to make more 3 quarter swings and chop the follow through off a little. He’s a very high ball hitter, but with short irons high balls aren’t good, it’s hard to control, we wanted to bring the ball flight down.”
The work certainly seemed to help McIlroy, as he went on to win the Zurich Classic alongside Shane Lowry and the Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow in back-to-back starts.
Rory will now tee it up at Valhalla for the PGA Championship, which is the site of his most recent major victory in 2014.
More from the 19th Hole
- Phil Mickelson drops big retirement hint; Says LIV will grow the game “on a much more global basis”
- 2-time major champ announces shock retirement from the sport at age of 33
- Tiger explains why golf has “negative connotations” for daughter Sam
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19th Hole
Brandel Chamblee says this technological development was key to Phil Mickelson winning major championships
While speaking with GolfWRX, Golf Channel’s Brandel Chamblee shared that he believes the solid core golf ball helped Phil Mickelson win major championships.
“One of the consequences of the solid core golf ball coming around was it put the straightest of hitters in the rough.
“Phil started winning majors in 2004, I don’t think that’s any coincidence. I think he started winning majors after the solid core golf ball came along and put everybody in the rough.
“And so [Phil] is like ‘I got you in the rough, I’m going to kick your a**. This is my game. I’ve been in the rough my whole career. I can go over trees, through trees, around trees.’
“Because he’s got that amazing creativity and Phil is an underrated iron player, phenomenal iron player. Great, great great out of the trouble. If you put the top-40 players on a list and ranked them in terms of accuracy, he would be 40th.
“So, I think that was one of the consequences of the solid core golf balls was it allowed Phil to win major championships.”
Mickelson went on to win the Masters in 2004 as well as five additional majors from 2004-2021 including three total Masters, two PGA Championships, and an Open Championship.
Check out the full interview with Chamblee below:
More from the 19th Hole
- Phil Mickelson drops big retirement hint; Says LIV will grow the game “on a much more global basis”
- 2-time major champ announces shock retirement from the sport at age of 33
- Tiger explains why golf has “negative connotations” for daughter Sam
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19th Hole
Former Augusta National employee pleads guilty to transporting stolen Masters memorabilia; Arnold Palmer’s green jacket among stolen items
The document was filed in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Illinois.
Since then, more details have emerged about the case.
According to Darren Rovell of Cllct, one of the items that was stolen was Arnold Palmer’s green jacket.
The Chicago Tribune also reported that Globensky was able to steal the merchandise due to his role as a former warehouse coordinator at Augusta National who oversaw the Masters merchandise that was sold.
Rovell states that “A source with intimate knowledge of the case said an Augusta National member, who knew the jacket was missing, contacted a well-known collector who had gained a reputation for tracking down rare items. The member’s goal was to return the jacket to Augusta under the guise of purchasing it in a private sale.”
The plan worked, and the man agreed to sell the jacket for an agreed upon price of $3.6 million. After the sale was complete, the FBI swarmed the house of the thief.
Cllct also reported that Globensky pled guilty in a federal court in Chicago on Wednesday and now faces up to 10 years in prison.
The Chicago Tribune adds that Globensky’s plea deal includes an agreement to provide the government a cashier’s check for $1.5 million in the next few days.
More from the 19th Hole
- Phil Mickelson drops big retirement hint; Says LIV will grow the game “on a much more global basis”
- 2-time major champ announces shock retirement from the sport at age of 33
- Tiger explains why golf has “negative connotations” for daughter Sam
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