Connect with us

Opinion & Analysis

The 24 players who can win The 2018 Masters

Published

on

Each year for the Masters, I create a filtering process to help determine the players that are most likely to win the Green Jacket based on criteria that has strongly predicted outcomes at Augusta. I usually get the list down to roughly 23 players. Last year, I had Sergio Garcia as one of my 20 players that could win the Masters. Despite Sergio’s lack of success at Augusta, he came away with the Green Jacket.

Before I discuss my picks for this year’s Masters, I want to go over what I call the “critical holes” for Augusta National. The critical holes in any tournament are the ones where the top finishers typically gain the most strokes on the field, as well as where the greatest deviation in scores exist. One of the interesting aspects about critical holes is that they often change over time due to changes in the course conditions, course design or a change in player strategy, which can create a smaller deviation in scores. This year the projected Critical Holes are Nos. 3, 13, 14 and 15.

Moving on to the tournament, I filtered out the amateurs and all first-time professional attendees. The Masters has only been won once by a first-time attendee: Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979.

Filtered Out: Amateurs and First-Time Attendees

  • Wesley Bryan
  • Austin Cook
  • Harry Ellis (a)
  • Tony Finau
  • Dylan Frittelli
  • Doug Ghim (a)
  • Patton Kizzire
  • Satoshin Kodaira
  • Haotong Li
  • Yuxin Lin (a)
  • Yusaku Miyazato
  • Joaquin Niemann (a)
  • Matt Parziale (a)
  • Doc Redman (a)
  • Xander Schauffele
  • Shubhankar Sharma

These first-time invitees are a little less battle tested on the big stage than the previous years’ first time invitees, although Finau, Schauffele and Li show some real promise in the future at Augusta. I also filtered out 11 past champions that I do not believe can compete at Augusta National anymore.

Filtered Out: Improbable Past Champions

  • Angel Cabrera
  • Fred Couples
  • Trevor Immelman
  • Bernhard Langer
  • Sandy Lyle
  • Larry Mize
  • Mark O’Meara
  • Jose Maria Olazabal
  • Vijay Singh
  • Mike Weir
  • Ian Woosnam

The Zach Johnson Debate

Every year I do my Masters picks, it’s always get pointed out that I do not pick former Masters Champion Zach Johnson due to his lack of length off the tee. Augusta National greatly favors long-ball hitters. They can play the par-5s more like par-4s, and typically the longer hitters can also hit the ball higher so they can get their long approach shots to hold the green more easily.

When Johnson won the Masters in 2007, the event featured record-low temperatures in the mid-40s and wind gusts of 33 mph. This made it very hard for any player to reach the par-5s in two shots and allowed Johnson to get into a wedge contest on the par-5’s, his strength. The temperatures are predicted to be in the mid-70s this year. Unless that changes by 30+ degrees and the wind gusts double, I don’t see Johnson having a very good chance to win the event. Along with Johnson, I would also eliminate these shorter hitters:

Filtered-Out: Short Hitters

  • Adam Hadwin
  • Brian Harman
  • Kevin Kisner
  • Matt Kuchar
  • Ryan Moore
  • Pat Perez
  • Ted Potter, Jr.
  • Chez Reavie
  • Webb Simpson
  • Kyle Stanley
  • Si Woo Kim

A part of the game that is just as critical as distance is the trajectory height a player can create. Last year, I filtered out nine players for hitting the ball too low. Four of the nine missed the cut. One of the picks, Paul Casey, finished T6. His instructor, Peter Kostis, recommended that I not just look solely at the Apex Height metric, but also look at carry distance when it comes to the trajectory the player puts on the ball. I have done that for this year’s Masters picks and have eliminated four players.

Filtered Out: Low-Ball Hitters

  • Jason Dufner
  • Branden Grace
  • Russell Henley
  • Ian Poulter

Since the inauguration of the event, there have only been two winners of the Masters that have previously never made the cut: Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979 and Gene Sarazen in 1936. Let’s filter them out as well.

Filtered Out: Never Made the Cut at Augusta

  • Tommy Fleetwood
  • Tyrrell Hatton
  • Alex Noren
  • Jhonattan Vegas

I will also filter out the players that missed the cut at the Houston Open. Missing the cut the week prior to an event greatly reduces the likelihood of the player winning, finishing in the top-10, finishing in the top-25 and even making the cut regardless of the event.

Filtered Out: Missed the Cut in Houston

  • Rafa Cabrera-Bello
  • Yuta Ikeda
  • Martin Kaymer

Lastly, I have filtered out the weak performers from the “Red Zone,” approach shots from 175-225 yards. While Augusta is known for its greens, the winners are determined mostly by the quality of their approach shots throughout the event. In fact, nine of the last 10 champions have hit at least 49 Greens in Regulation during the week.

The key shots where the most strokes are gained/lost at Augusta National are from the Red Zone. Last year, I had 17 players filtered out for poor Red Zone play. Outside of Kevin Chappell (T7), almost all of those players performed poorly.

Filtered Out: Weak from 175-225 Yards

  • Kiradech Aphibarnrat
  • Patrick Cantlay
  • Jason Day
  • Ross Fisher
  • Matthew Fitzpatrick
  • Billy Horschel
  • Dustin Johnson
  • Francesco Molinari
  • Charl Schwartzel
  • Brendan Steele
  • Bernd Wiesberger
  • Danny Willett

Perhaps the biggest surprise here is Dustin Johnson. He currently ranks 176th from the Red Zone despite historically being an excellent Red Zone performer. At his current rate, he would like need to dominate Augusta off the tee with his prodigious length and putt very well to win the Green Jacket. But the numbers don’t like a player’s odds of being able to do that on such an approach shot oriented course.

That leaves us with 24 players that can win the Masters. Their Vegas Odds, which are subject to change, are in parentheses. My personal top-10 picks are just below.

The 24 players who can win the 2018 Masters

  • Paul Casey (22/1)
  • Kevin Chappell (100/1)
  • Bryson DeChambeau (66/1)
  • Rickie Fowler (18/1)
  • Sergio Garcia (28/1)
  • Charley Hoffman (80/1)
  • Mark Leishman (66/1)
  • Hideki Matsuyama (25/1)
  • Rory McIlroy (9/1)
  • Phil Mickelson (16/1)
  • Louis Oosthuizen (50/1)
  • Thomas Pieters (66/1)
  • Jon Rahm (18/1)
  • Patrick Reed (40/1)
  • Justin Rose (20/1)
  • Adam Scott (33/1)
  • Cameron Smith (150/1)
  • Jordan Spieth (10/1)
  • Henrik Stenson (40/1)
  • Justin Thomas (10/1)
  • Jimmy Walker (150/1)
  • Bubba Watson (14/1)
  • Gary Woodland (150/1)
  • Tiger Woods (11/1)

My Personal Top-10 Picks

  • Paul Casey (22/1)
  • Rory McIlroy (9/1)
  • Phil Mickelson (16/1)
  • Louis Oosthuizen (50/1)
  • Jon Rahm (18/1)
  • Patrick Reed (40/1)
  • Justin Rose (20/1)
  • Jordan Spieth (10/1)
  • Justin Thomas (10/1)
  • Bubba Watson (14/1)

Click here for up-to-date betting odds on The Masters.

Your Reaction?
  • 333
  • LEGIT56
  • WOW15
  • LOL10
  • IDHT6
  • FLOP2
  • OB2
  • SHANK40

Richie Hunt is a statistician whose clients include PGA Tour players, their caddies and instructors in order to more accurately assess their games. He is also the author of the recently published e-book, 2018 Pro Golf Synopsis; the Moneyball Approach to the Game of Golf. He can be reached at [email protected] or on Twitter @Richie3Jack. GolfWRX Writer of the Month: March 2014 Purchase 2017 Pro Golf Synopsis E-book for $10

61 Comments

61 Comments

  1. DrRob1963

    Apr 12, 2018 at 8:34 am

    You should add a “Can’t Putt” catagory

  2. Grant

    Apr 11, 2018 at 1:39 pm

    Hey Rich,

    Nice job on this! Wondering if you do this for the other majors as well?

  3. Tal

    Apr 9, 2018 at 3:21 am

    Great job on this! You picked the winner again.

  4. Woody

    Apr 8, 2018 at 9:50 pm

    Hey man, I give you props. You had Reed in your top 10..expert proved right.

  5. Eddie Von Eric

    Apr 4, 2018 at 10:58 am

    Richies expert analysis is equivalent to that big deuce I dropped this morning in the IHOP bathroom.

  6. Kris

    Apr 3, 2018 at 9:10 pm

    Great article. Fun to read.

  7. Jack Nicholas

    Apr 3, 2018 at 2:05 pm

    RG, mathematical probabilities are scary, huh. You should sharpen your pin and just stick away and leave the real analysis to the brainier ones of the species. Go bet some of your benjamins on Woosnam, Mize et al and see how far you get.

  8. kevin

    Apr 3, 2018 at 1:08 pm

    every stat i see has DJ in top 20 relative to approach shots within 175-200yds.

    https://www.pgatour.com/stats/stat.337.html

  9. J

    Apr 3, 2018 at 11:57 am

    Any of the field you see that can place top 10 or 20 outside of your top 24 to win?

    • Richie Hunt

      Apr 4, 2018 at 10:18 am

      I could see Dustin winning. If he can get his Red Zone play back to its old self, it can happen. Otherwise, he has to drive the ball ridiculously well and putt well to make up for it. It can happen, just a tall task. Kuchar is playing well right now and if the conditions start to favor him he could do something. Russell Henley is currently ranked #1 from the Red Zone. If the conditions work out for him, he could contend.

  10. Cliff Hartman

    Apr 3, 2018 at 10:15 am

    I don’t see where you have accounted for Daniel Berger???

    • Charles Aspinal

      Apr 3, 2018 at 1:04 pm

      You beat me to it; I have same question.

  11. Dan

    Apr 3, 2018 at 7:15 am

    Cameron Smith is a first timer right? He’s on the list of 24 though. Correct me if I’m wrong.

  12. Undershooter30

    Apr 2, 2018 at 11:26 pm

    Reed doesn’t hit it high enough to win. He has the right to left ball flight but his shot height is very low.

  13. Trevor Heathers

    Apr 2, 2018 at 9:37 pm

    LOL that picture of Rich is from 20 years ago! Check out his video on Bebettergolf. He’s fat too.

    • Liam Pierce

      Apr 3, 2018 at 3:05 pm

      I know its hilarious. Guy is such an egomaniac that he has to post a picture of when he was young.

  14. Liz Murray

    Apr 2, 2018 at 8:22 pm

    Love your predictions every year! My question is do you think Matsuyama‘s recent injury will affect his playing this weekend?

    • Rich Hunt

      Apr 3, 2018 at 8:43 am

      Thank you.

      Tough to say as it’s difficult to predict if the injury and his game heals in time or not. That’s why I put him in the top-24, but not in the top-10.

  15. Michaele11111

    Apr 2, 2018 at 5:34 pm

    Pretty lame stuff. Very full of holes.

    • Joel

      Apr 2, 2018 at 9:45 pm

      Boo, this comment. Just, booooooo.

      This is a fun article every year.

  16. nyguy

    Apr 2, 2018 at 4:46 pm

    The #1 Player in the world doesn’t have a chance?? lol ridiculous.

    • Jack Nicholas

      Apr 3, 2018 at 1:11 pm

      Number 1 never wins The Masters. Hasn’t ever happened so it’s mathematically less likely.

    • Kris

      Apr 3, 2018 at 9:01 pm

      Yes. He was disqualified because of his 200-225 accuracy this year. Lmao.

  17. Robert

    Apr 2, 2018 at 3:32 pm

    Rich please elaborate as to how is Jason Day weak from 175 yards when he is T33 according to pgatour.com?

    • Richie Hunt

      Apr 2, 2018 at 3:58 pm

      I am not sure what metrics you are looking at. For instance, just take a look at his play from 175-200 yards from the fairway where he ranks 199th: https://www.pgatour.com/stats/stat.337.html

      Generally, Day’s largest weakness in his game over the years has been from 150-200 yards. He uses his driving, short game play and great putting to overcome that. But that is a tall task to do at Augusta.

  18. kevin

    Apr 2, 2018 at 3:12 pm

    Really enjoy this column. ignore the haters! Thanks Rich

  19. Zac

    Apr 2, 2018 at 1:24 pm

    Since when is Kyle Stanley a short hitter?!?!

    • Nate

      Apr 2, 2018 at 1:52 pm

      never. dude’s a beast

    • Richie Hunt

      Apr 2, 2018 at 4:01 pm

      Kyle ranks 140th in driving distance and 114th in club speed. He altered his swing a few years ago to drop his club speed from 117 mph to about 112 mph. Still strikes it great, but the numbers indicate that unless the wind picks up, winning at Augusta isn’t likely. In fact, it’s supposed to rain at ANGC which would only favor the longer hitters.

      • Kris

        Apr 3, 2018 at 9:04 pm

        Rain helps the shorter players. See Johnson Z. And Weir M.

        Makes the greens easier to hold. Which is a way bigger advantage than distance.

        • Richie Hunt

          Apr 4, 2018 at 10:12 am

          Zach didn’t have rain. He had record low temperatures and high wind gusts. Even the bombers had trouble going for the par-5’s in two shots when Zach won.

          Generally on Tour, rain helps the bombers. But since there is no rough to really speak of at ANGC, I can see it helping shorter hitters a little. The time that Weir won, Weir was one of the very best in the world from inside 200 yards, so it wasn’t like he couldn’t play.

    • Matt

      Apr 2, 2018 at 4:53 pm

      My sediments exactly!

    • kevin

      Apr 3, 2018 at 1:00 pm

      He’s 140th in driving distance in 2018.

      c’mon people…these stats aren’t that hard to look up.

  20. Megabill

    Apr 2, 2018 at 1:22 pm

    How can you filter based on 175-225 performance? Doesn’t 100 to 175 have more influence on the winner?

    Does the 175-225 stat really influence who becomes champion?

    Also many filtered by that stat hit it so far that they rarely have to hit in from that distance.

    • Richie Hunt

      Apr 2, 2018 at 4:03 pm

      Shots from 100-175 yards do not have more ‘influence’ on the winner. And Tour players on average hit more shots per round from 150-200 yards than they do from 75-150 yards. It’s also not all about the frequency of shots. But it’s about the deviation in results. Combine those two at ANGC and that’s why you see players that perform well from there on top of the leaderboard.

  21. brad

    Apr 2, 2018 at 1:17 pm

    Xander Schauffele will make the cut, and Daniel Berger will be in the mix.

  22. Dan

    Apr 2, 2018 at 12:06 pm

    Not a perfect system because none is but would anyone seriously take the rest of the field over Richies 24?
    I’d say DJ and Jason Day are tough ones but his list looks pretty good…. Fleetwood, Carera Bello, Noren maybe?

    List looks good to me

  23. Ryan Schmidlin

    Apr 2, 2018 at 11:58 am

    Where is Daniel Berger on this list????

  24. Max

    Apr 2, 2018 at 11:52 am

    I mean, if you look at last year’s results, many of the guys you filtered out finished in the top 10 and were probably a lucky bounce/bad break away from being in contention. Let’s also not forget guys like Bernhard Langer and Soren Kjeldsen were in contention a few years ago.

    I like the analysis, though, and the winner is more likely to be on your list than not.

    • Tal

      Apr 2, 2018 at 6:49 pm

      He’s not trying to predict the top 10, he’s trying to predict a single winner as as you say, they’re most likely on that list. I believe Rich has shortlisted the winner for the last 2 years, if I’m not mistaken.

  25. juststeve

    Apr 2, 2018 at 11:35 am

    Very bold to rule out Dustin Johnson. Lets see if you’re right.

    • Kris

      Apr 3, 2018 at 9:07 pm

      Not really bold, actually. If he doesn’t win the tournament Rich is right.

  26. Courtney (not female)

    Apr 2, 2018 at 11:32 am

    What a backwards way of thinking, thoughts on Tiger getting to tee it up?

  27. dat

    Apr 2, 2018 at 11:26 am

    A fair assessment, but you forgot about whoever wins the par 3 contest automatically being out of the running based on past data.

  28. Tim Braun

    Apr 2, 2018 at 11:21 am

    Jason Day would be the one that I would question not being on your list. With his driving ability and his top putting that outweighs the approach shot debate. I’m not saying he is going to win, but Gary Woodland or Cameron Smith??? Certainly we can make a substitution.

  29. Mikec

    Apr 2, 2018 at 11:21 am

    No filter is perfect, but this system seems to be a very logical way to get down to a set of names to wager — from there it is old fashioned gut and handicapping based on form etc — but I like the approach of thinning the field

  30. Oscar

    Apr 2, 2018 at 11:20 am

    what about Daniel Berger?

  31. RG

    Apr 2, 2018 at 11:03 am

    You filtered out a guy (Danny Willett) whose already shown he can win. This shows the inherent problem in your prediction filter. Oh, and statistically speaking any of those players CAN win the Master’s and I reject the null hypothesis that you present.

    • Al Czervik

      Apr 2, 2018 at 11:36 am

      He is talking about the 2018 Masters. Dude is 296th in the world.

      • Al Czervik

        Apr 2, 2018 at 11:41 am

        The real problem is that his Improbable Past Champions filter didn’t catch him. I would be far more shocked if Willett made a run than say Cabrera or even Langer.

    • Josh

      Apr 2, 2018 at 5:19 pm

      I made a lot of money on Danny Willett two years ago, but I wouldn’t bet one red cent that he’ll ever win another Masters. Dude was a fluke who only won cause Jordan blew it. For the record I also had a stake in Spieth so it was a good weekend.

Leave a Reply

Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

19th Hole

Vincenzi’s LIV Golf Singapore betting preview: Course specialist ready to thrive once again

Published

on

After another strong showing in Australia, LIV Golf will head to Sentosa Golf Club in Singapore looking to build off of what was undoubtedly their best event to date.

Sentosa Golf Club sits on the southern tip of Singapore and is one of the most beautiful courses in the world. The course is more than just incredible scenically; it was also rated 55th in Golf Digest’s top-100 courses in 2022-2023 and has been consistently regarded as one of the best courses in Asia. Prior to being part of the LIV rotation, the course hosted the Singapore Open every year since 2005.

Sentosa Golf Club is a par 71 measuring 7,406 yards. The course will require precise ball striking and some length off the tee. It’s possible to go low due to the pristine conditions, but there are also plenty of hazards and difficult spots on the course that can bring double bogey into play in a hurry. The Bermudagrass greens are perfectly manicured, and the course has spent millions on the sub-air system to keep the greens rolling fast. I spoke to Asian Tour player, Travis Smyth, who described the greens as “the best [he’s] ever played.”

Davis Love III, who competed in a Singapore Open in 2019, also gushed over the condition of the golf course.

“I love the greens. They are fabulous,” the 21-time PGA Tour winner said.

Love III also spoke about other aspects of the golf course.

“The greens are great; the fairways are perfect. It is a wonderful course, and it’s tricky off the tee.”

“It’s a long golf course, and you get some long iron shots. It takes somebody hitting it great to hit every green even though they are big.”

As Love III said, the course can be difficult off the tee due to the length of the course and the trouble looming around every corner. It will take a terrific ball striking week to win at Sentosa Golf Club.

In his pre-tournament press conference last season, Phil Mickelson echoed many of the same sentiments.

“To play Sentosa effectively, you’re going to have a lot of shots from 160 to 210, a lot of full 6-, 7-, 8-iron shots, and you need to hit those really well and you need to drive the ball well.”

Golfers who excel from tee to green and can dial in their longer irons will have a massive advantage this week.

Stat Leaders at LIV Golf Adelaide:

Fairways Hit

1.) Louis Oosthuizen

2.) Anirban Lahiri

3.) Jon Rahm

4.) Brendan Steele

5.) Cameron Tringale

Greens in Regulation

1.) Brooks Koepka

2.) Brendan Steele

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Cameron Tringale

5.) Anirban Lahiri

Birdies Made

1.) Brendan Steele

2.) Dean Burmester

3.) Thomas Pieters

4.) Patrick Reed

5.) Carlos Ortiz

LIV Golf Individual Standings:

1.) Joaquin Niemann

2.) Jon Rahm

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Louis Oosthuizen

5.) Abraham Ancer

LIV Golf Team Standings:

1.) Crushers

2.) Legion XIII

3.) Torque

4.) Stinger GC

5.) Ripper GC

LIV Golf Singapore Picks

Sergio Garcia +3000 (DraftKings)

Sergio Garcia is no stranger to Sentosa Golf Club. The Spaniard won the Singapore Open in 2018 by five strokes and lost in a playoff at LIV Singapore last year to scorching hot Talor Gooch. Looking at the course setup, it’s no surprise that a player like Sergio has played incredible golf here. He’s long off the tee and is one of the better long iron players in the world when he’s in form. Garcia is also statistically a much better putter on Bermudagrass than he is on other putting surfaces. He’s putt extremely well on Sentosa’s incredibly pure green complexes.

This season, Garcia has two runner-up finishes, both of them being playoff losses. Both El Camaleon and Doral are courses he’s had success at in his career. The Spaniard is a player who plays well at his tracks, and Sentosa is one of them. I believe Sergio will get himself in the mix this week. Hopefully the third time is a charm in Singapore.

Paul Casey +3300 (FanDuel)

Paul Casey is in the midst of one of his best seasons in the five years or so. The results recently have been up and down, but he’s shown that when he’s on a golf course that suits his game, he’s amongst the contenders.

This season, Casey has finishes of T5 (LIV Las Vegas), T2 (LIV Hong Kong), and a 6th at the Singapore Classic on the DP World Tour. At his best, the Englishman is one of the best long iron players in the world, which makes him a strong fit for Sentosa. Despite being in poor form last season, he was able to fire a Sunday 63, which shows he can low here at the course.

It’s been three years since Casey has won a tournament (Omega Dubai Desert Classic in 2021), but he’s been one of the top players on LIV this season and I think he can get it done at some point this season.

Mito Pereira +5000 (Bet365)

Since Mito Pereira’s unfortunate demise at the 2022 PGA Championship, he’s been extremely inconsistent. However, over the past few months, the Chilean has played well on the International Series as well as his most recent LIV start. Mito finished 8th at LIV Adelaide, which was his best LIV finish this season.

Last year, Pereira finished 5th at LIV Singapore, shooting fantastic rounds of 67-66-66. It makes sense why Mito would like Sentosa, as preeminent ball strikers tend to rise to the challenge of the golf course. He’s a great long iron player who is long and straight off the tee.

Mito has some experience playing in Asia and is one of the most talented players on LIV who’s yet to get in the winner’s circle. I have questions about whether or not he can come through once in contention, but if he gets there, I’m happy to roll the dice.

Andy Ogletree +15000 (DraftKings)

Andy Ogletree is a player I expected to have a strong 2024 but struggled early in his first full season on LIV. After failing to crack the top-25 in any LIV event this year, the former U.S. Amateur champion finally figured things out, finished in a tie for 3rd at LIV Adelaide.

Ogletree should be incredible comfortable playing in Singapore. He won the International Series Qatar last year and finished T3 at the International Series Singapore. The 26-year-old was arguably the best player on the Asian Tour in 2023 and has been fantastic in the continent over the past 18 months.

If Ogletree has indeed found form, he looks to be an amazing value at triple-digit odds.

Your Reaction?
  • 3
  • LEGIT3
  • WOW1
  • LOL2
  • IDHT0
  • FLOP2
  • OB0
  • SHANK0

Continue Reading

Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Lessons from the worst golf instructor in America

Published

on

In Tampa, there is a golf course that boasts carts that do not work, a water range, and a group of players none of which have any chance to break 80. The course is overseen by a staff of crusty men who have succeeded at nothing in life but ending up at the worst-run course in America. However, this place is no failure. With several other local courses going out of business — and boasting outstanding greens — the place is booked full.

While I came for the great greens, I stayed to watch our resident instructor; a poor-tempered, method teacher who caters to the hopeless. At first, it was simply hilarious. However, after months of listening and watching, something clicked. I realized I had a front-row seat to the worst golf instructor in America.

Here are some of my key takeaways.

Method Teacher

It is widely accepted that there are three types of golf instructors: system teachers, non-system teachers, and method teachers. Method teachers prescribe the same antidote for each student based on a preamble which teachers can learn in a couple day certification.

Method teaching allows anyone to be certified. This process caters to the lowest caliber instructor, creating the illusion of competency. This empowers these underqualified instructors with the moniker of “certified” to prey on the innocent and uninformed.

The Cult of Stack and Jilt

The Stack and Tilt website proudly boasts, “A golfer swings his hands inward in the backswing as opposed to straight back to 1) create power, similar to a field goal kicker moving his leg in an arc and 2) to promote a swing that is in-to-out, which produces a draw (and eliminates a slice).”

Now, let me tell you something, there is this law of the universe which says “energy can either be created or destroyed,” so either these guys are defying physics or they have no idea what they are taking about. Further, the idea that the first move of the backswing determines impact is conjecture with a splash of utter fantasy.

These are the pontifications of a method — a set of prescriptions applied to everyone with the hope of some success through the placebo effect. It is one thing for a naive student to believe, for a golf instructor to drink and then dispel this Kool-Aid is malpractice.

Fooled by Randomness

In flipping a coin, or even a March Madness bet, there is a 50-50 chance of success. In golf, especially for new players, results are asymmetric. Simply put: Anything can happen. The problem is that when bad instructors work with high handicappers, each and every shot gets its own diagnosis and prescription. Soon the student is overwhelmed.

Now here’s the sinister thing: The overwhelming information is by design. In this case, the coach is not trying to make you better, they are trying to make you reliant on them for information. A quasi Stockholm syndrome of codependency.

Practice

One of the most important scientists of the 20th century was Ivan Pavlov. As you might recall, he found that animals, including humans, could be conditioned into biological responses. In golf, the idea of practice has made millions of hackers salivate that they are one lesson or practice session from “the secret.”

Sunk Cost

The idea for the worst golf instructor is to create control and dependency so that clients ignore the sunk cost of not getting better. Instead, they are held hostage by the idea that they are one lesson or tip away from unlocking their potential.

Cliches

Cliches have the effect of terminating thoughts. However, they are the weapon of choice for this instructor. Add some hyperbole and students actually get no information. As a result, these players couldn’t play golf. When they did, they had no real scheme. With no idea what they are doing, they would descend into a spiral of no idea what to do, bad results, lower confidence, and running back to the lesson tee from more cliches.

The fact is that poor instruction is about conditioning players to become reliant members of your cult. To take away autonomy. To use practice as a form of control. To sell more golf lessons not by making people better but through the guise that without the teacher, the student can never reach their full potential. All under the umbrella of being “certified” (in a 2-day course!) and a melee of cliches.

This of course is not just happening at my muni but is a systemic problem around the country and around the world, the consequences of which are giving people a great reason to stop playing golf. But hey, at least it’s selling a lot of golf balls…

Your Reaction?
  • 17
  • LEGIT2
  • WOW0
  • LOL4
  • IDHT1
  • FLOP1
  • OB0
  • SHANK19

Continue Reading

19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

Published

on

The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

  • 2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
  • 2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
  • 2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
  • 2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
  • 2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
  • 2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

Your Reaction?
  • 8
  • LEGIT3
  • WOW1
  • LOL1
  • IDHT0
  • FLOP3
  • OB1
  • SHANK2

Continue Reading

WITB

Facebook

Trending