Opinion & Analysis

Tiger and Phil: Where do they go from here?

Published

11 years ago

Nov 14, 2012

Seth Kerr

By Seth Kerr

GolfWRX Staff Writer

In 2006, Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson won three of four major championships. Since then, they have won a total of three majors and had four total second place finishes. Interestingly, Phil has finished in second place four times to Tiger while Tiger has finished in second five times to Phil. But they have never finished in second place when the other won a major.

Part of that may be due to their competitive nature. They aren’t friends and have never pretended to be.

For years, they were our generation’s Jack and Arnie. Tiger was Jack, winning in dominating fashion and taking no prisoners. Phil was just like Arnie; not quite as dominant but we rooted harder for him. He was more of a “man of the people” than Tiger.

From 2004-2006, Phil won two green jackets and one PGA Championship, and he should have won aU.S. Open if not for his bone headed drive on the 72^nd hole in 2006. It looked like there was only more to come with Phil winning eight times on tour from 2007-2009. But after his Masters win in 2010, he hit a wall.

Click here for more discussion in the “Tour Talk” forum.

Tiger was even more dominant in his prime. He won four majors from 2004-2006 and added two more in 2007-2008. From 2007-2009, Tiger won an incredible 17 times on Tour. In 2009, Tiger had a scoring average of 68.40 in the final round of tournaments, which was almost a shot better than his average of 69.25 for rounds before the cut that year. But after 2009, he failed to win for two years and won less than $1 million in 2011 for the first time since turning pro in 1996. While Tiger has shown steady improvement since then, he still isn’t close to where he was.

In 2012, Tiger had a scoring average of 69.24 for rounds before the cut, ranking him second behind Jason Duffner. However, Tiger’s Round 4 scoring average was more than a full stroke worse at 70.40 and his late fourth round scoring average was a mediocre 71.00, which tied him with the likes of Kevin Kisner, Bobby Gates, Gavin Coles, and Scott Dunlap. Can you picture those guys playing with Tiger on Sunday? Me neither.

There is no question Tiger had a good year in 2012, but he did not have a Tiger year. That’s why the player of the year trophy will go to Rory McIlroy in 2012, not El Tigre. Tiger isn’t driven by wins at Bay Hill, The Memorial or the AT&T National. He plays to win majors, and this year he wilted like an old, dried up flower in all four majors.

He finished in a distant 40^th place at Augusta. He had a chance to win the British on the final day, but he fell out of contention with a 73. He also faded on the weekend again at the U.S. Open closing with 75-73. And Rory McIroy beat Tiger by a mind numbing 11 stokes at the PGA Championship.

Sadly for Tiger, that wasn’t his only 11 stroke beat down. His first came courtesy of Phil in the final round at Pebble Beach.

Think about what we know about Tiger and then think about any golfer beating him by 11 strokes in the final round of a tournament he had a chance to win. Would that have every happened from 2000-2009? Not a chance.

Then at the Ryder Cup, Tiger played so poorly he apologized to the Ryder Cup rookies for letting them down. But Phil was even worse this year.

He had a pedestrian scoring average before the cut of 70.62. He didn’t get any better in the final round, averaging a paltry 70.94. That was only good enough for 83^rd in the rankings.

Remember, only the top 70 players and ties make the cut.

Phil played very few quality tournaments other than his dominant performance in the final round at Pebble Beach.

It looked like the start of a great year heading into the Masters. Instead, he shot himself in the foot early in the final round of the Masters and faded from contention. He missed the cut at the British Open and did no better than middle of the pack at either the U.S. Open or PGA Championship. While he showed some improvement at the Ryder Cup, there are real questions how much that had to do with him or getting caught up in the Keegan Bradley wave.

Of course, Phil had his own moments he may wish to take back from the Ryder Cup, whether it was telling Davis Love he didn’t want to play Saturday afternoon or smiling and giving Justin Rose a thumbs up as Rose stormed back to beat him in singles on Sunday.

The talent on tour is now younger, stronger and more invested than when Phil and Tiger joined the Tour. These days there are more short game gurus, personal trainers, nutritionists and anyone else you can imagine traveling with players.

No longer is Tiger Woods the peak physical athlete on Tour. He and Phil don’t intimidate anyone with their length. In fact, there are a number of players who bomb it past both of them off the tee.

Players embrace the chance to bring down the two biggest names in golf. They want to play in the final group and beat them. Tiger used to have a couple stroke advantage just by teeing off in the same group. Players used to collapse quicker than a cheap tent when Tiger was moving up leader boards, but lately he has been the one folding in pressure situations. The top players don’t quiver when they play Tiger and Phil anymore. Now they want a piece of them. They’ve seen the blood in the water and are circling.

But perhaps more troubling than the number of golfers joining the pack to defeat Tiger and Phil is their struggles with their own games. So where do Tiger and Phil fit on Tour going forward?

It is still uncertain whether Tiger’s swing changes with Sean Foley will stand up to the pressure of the final round of major championship golf. Will another year under Foley make him better, or just put more wear and tear on his body?

Tiger is an old 37. He has struggled frequently in recent years with injuries. He’s undergone multiple knee surgeries and still limped through certain rounds this year. You also wonder about his mental strength with his personal life becoming so public. His cheating scandal and injuries seemed to zap his invincibility. There is plenty of evidence to show he can get it back, but does he want to?

He struggled when he switched to Hank Haney and then went on one of the most dominant streaks the game has ever seen. But his prior swing changes didn’t come with being a single father and a punch line for public jokes. And he has already admitted he doesn’t spend as much time practicing as his used to due to his responsibilities as a father.

Phil, 42, has had his own swing and injury issues. He famously said at the beginning of the year, “My swing is what it is. My chipping is what it is, and so is my putting. I’m done making changes to strokes. I’m done trying different putters.”

But later in the year, Phil changed his stroke by changing to the claw putting style. Not to mention, he can still hit some of the most shockingly wayward shots at the most inopportune times. The problem is, he doesn’t get it back in play and up and down like he did before.

He has psoriatic arthritis, which limits some of his practice time, not to mention the battles he and his family went through as his wife and mother both battled cancer. Because of that, Phil has taken more time off from playing and practicing. He has no problem missing tournaments that get in the way of family vacations as he did this year at the WGC-Accenture Match Play.

While it is admirable to want to spend more time with your family, it doesn’t really make for great golf. And now Phil has extended himself further as partial owner of the San Diego Padres. So how much does Phil really want to be the best on a week-to-week basis?

You get the feeling, for Phil, tournaments are his practice for the majors. You don’t see Phil fretting much over the weekly tournaments. He seems to worry about them as much as he does his well-known Tuesday foursome gambling matches during practice rounds. He may need to fret a little more in 2013; having had only seven top 10 finishes out of 22 tournaments in 2012.

Tiger, and to a lesser extent Phil, used to be able to plan the year and gear their games around the four majors. Now, there are players who have the same skill level and play more often. No longer is Tiger or Phil’s best a guaranteed victory.

And it isn’t likely either player is going to devote the time they did in their youth to reach the top. They can’t. They don’t have the time or the health.

The problem is, golfers don’t usually improve at 37 or 42. In fact, touch seems to leave with age and Tiger and Phil have both relied on their touch around the greens to save strokes.

But maybe this is the year they both go back to fighting for the top spot on leader boards. Or maybe they never win another major, and this is the beginning of seeing two of the games greats fade. We should all start preparing ourselves for that time. Because neither is going to continue to play to finish in the middle of the pack. Both have too much pride, money and other interests to stick around.

Soon enough, they will know how Greg Norman and Nick Faldo felt.

Click here for more discussion in the “Tour Talk” forum.

Your Reaction?

LIKE0
LEGIT0
WOW0
LOL0
IDHT0
FLOP0
OB0
SHANK0

Instruction

The Wedge Guy: My top 5 practice tips

Published

17 hours ago

Sep 22, 2023

Terry Koehler

While there are many golfers who barely know where the practice (I don’t like calling it a “driving”) range is located, there are many who find it a place of adventure, discovery and fun. I’m in the latter group, which could be accented by the fact that I make my living in this industry. But then, I’ve always been a “ball beater,” since I was a kid, but now I approach my practice sessions with more purpose and excitement. There’s no question that practice is the key to improvement in anything, so today’s topic is on making practice as much fun as playing.

As long as I can remember, I’ve loved the range, and always embrace the challenge of learning new ways to make a golf ball do what I would like it to do. So, today I’m sharing my “top 5” tips for making practice fun and productive.

Have a mission/goal/objective. Whether it is a practice range session or practice time on the course, make sure you have a clearly defined objective…how else will you know how you’re doing? It might be to work on iron trajectory, or finding out why you’ve developed a push with your driver. Could be to learn how to hit a little softer lob shot or a knockdown pitch. But practice with a purpose …always.
Don’t just “do”…observe. There are two elements of learning something new. The first is to figure out what it is you need to change. Then you work toward that solution. If your practice session is to address that push with the driver, hit a few shots to start out, and rather than try to fix it, make those first few your “lab rats”. Focus on what your swing is doing. Do you feel anything different? Check your alignment carefully, and your ball position. After each shot, step away and process what you think you felt during the swing.
Make it real. To just rake ball after ball in front of you and pound away is marginally valuable at best. To make practice productive, step away from your hitting station after each shot, rake another ball to the hitting area, then approach the shot as if it was a real one on the course. Pick a target line from behind the ball, meticulously step into your set-up position, take your grip, process your one swing thought and hit it. Then evaluate how you did, based on the shot result and how it felt.
Challenge yourself. One of my favorite on-course practice games is to spend a few minutes around each green after I’ve played the hole, tossing three balls into various positions in an area off the green. I don’t let myself go to the next tee until I put all three within three feet of the hole. If I don’t, I toss them to another area and do it again. You can do the same thing on the range. Define a challenge and a limited number of shots to achieve it.
Don’t get in a groove. I was privileged enough to watch Harvey Penick give Tom Kite a golf lesson one day, and was struck by the fact that he would not let Tom hit more than five to six shots in a row with the same club. Tom would hit a few 5-irons, and Mr. Penick would say, “hit the 8”, then “hit the driver.” He changed it up so that Tom would not just find a groove. That paved the way for real learning, Mr. Penick told me.

My “bonus” tip addresses the difference between practicing on the course and keeping a real score. Don’t do both. A practice session is just that. On-course practice is hugely beneficial, and it’s best done by yourself, and at a casual pace. Playing three or four holes in an hour or so, taking time to hit real shots into and around the greens, will do more for your scoring skills than the same amount of range time.

So there you have my five practice tips. I’m sure I could come up with more, but then we always have more time, right?

Vincenzi: Fortinet Championship First Round Leader picks

Published

2 weeks ago

Sep 12, 2023

Matt Vincenzi

The PGA Tour begins its fall season with a trip to Wine Country as the world of golf patiently awaits the 2023 Ryder Cup which is just a few weeks away. Silverado is a course where plenty of players with varying skill sets can compete, but strong West Coast history tends to be a major factor.

In the past four editions of the Fortinet Championship, there have been six first-round leaders or co-leaders. Of the six, three have started their rounds in the morning wave, and three started in the afternoon. The leading scores have all been between 63 and 65.

As of now, the winds look to be very docile, with speeds of 4-7 MPH throughout the day. I don’t see either the AM or PM wave as having a major advantage.

2023 Fortinet Championship First-Round Leader Picks

Zac Blair +9000 (FanDuel)

First-Round Tee Time: 1.22 p.m PT

A big theme for me this week is targeting players who have had success at both Silverado and the West Coast in general. Blair finished 22nd here last year, and also finished 4th back in 2019. That year, he shot 66 in rounds two and three, showing his ability to go low on this track.

In 2022, Blair gained 3.8 strokes putting and in 2019, he gained 8.6. The 33-year-old seemingly has these greens figured out.

C.T. Pan +9000 (FanDuel)

First-Round Tee Time: 8.23 a.m PT

At the end of the 2023 season, C.T. Pan showed flashes of what made him a good player prior to his injury struggles early in the year. He finished 4th at the AT&T Byron Nelson in May, and 3rd at the RBC Canadian Open in June. He also finished 6th at Silverado back in 2021, gaining 4.5 strokes on approach and 6.6 strokes putting.

A few weeks off may have given Pan a chance to reset and focus on the upcoming fall swing, where I believe he’ll play some good golf.

Joel Dahmen +110000 (FanDuel)

First-Round Tee Time: 7:28 a.m PT

After becoming a well-known name in golf due to his affable presence in Netflix’ “Full Swing” documentary, Dahmen had what can only be considered a disappointment of a 2023 season. I believe he’s a better player than he showed last year and is a good candidate for a bounce back fall and 2024.

Dahmen finished in a tie for 10th at the Barracuda Championship in late July, and the course is similar in agronomy and location to what he’ll see this week in Napa. He has some strong history on the West Coast including top-ten finishes at Riviera (5th, 2020), Pebble Beach (6th, 2022), Sherwood (8th, 2020), TPC Summerlin (9th, 2019) and Torrey Pines (9th, 2019).

James Hahn +125000 (Caesars)

First-Round Tee Time: 1:55 p.m PT

James Hahn absolutely loves golf on the West Coast. He’s won at Riviera and has also shown some course form with a 9th place finish at Silverado back in 2020. That week, Hahn gained 4.7 strokes putting, demonstrating his comfort level on these POA putting surfaces.

He finished T6 at the Barracuda back in July, and there’s no doubt that a return to California will be welcome for the 41-year-old.

Peter Malnati +125000 (BetRivers)

First-Round Tee Time: 12.27 p.m PT

Peter Malnati excels at putting on the West Coast. He ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting on POA and has shown in the past he’s capable of going extremely low on any given round due to his ability to catch a hot putter.

His course history isn’t spectacular, but he’s played well enough at Silverado. In his past seven trips to the course, he’s finished in the top-35 four times.

Harry Higgs +150000 (BetRivers)

First-Round Tee Time: 1.55 p.m PT

In what is seemingly becoming a theme in this week’s First-Round Leader column, Harry Higgs is a player that really fell out of form in 2023, but a reset and a trip to a course he’s had success at in the past may spark a resurgence.

Higgs finished 2nd at Silverado in 2020 and wasn’t in particularly great form then either. Success hasn’t come in abundance for the 31-year-old, but three of his top-10 finishes on Tour have come in this area of the country.

Higgs shot an impressive 62 here in round two in 2020, which would certainly be enough to capture the first-round lead this year.

Your Reaction?

LIKE1
LEGIT3
WOW0
LOL0
IDHT0
FLOP0
OB0
SHANK1

19th Hole

Vincenzi’s Fortinet Championship betting preview: California native ready for breakthrough win in Napa

Published

2 weeks ago

Sep 11, 2023

Matt Vincenzi

After a three-week break, the 2022-23 PGA TOUR season kicks off in Napa Valley at the Silverado Resort and Spa to play the Fortinet Championship.

Prior to 2021, the event was called the Safeway Open, but the tournament sponsor changed to Fortinet with contract that will last for three more seasons. Although the name has changed multiple times, Silverado’s North Course has been featured on the PGA TOUR since 1968.

The course is a par 72, measuring at 7,166 yards. Silverado features Poa annua greens that can be tricky, especially as the surface becomes bumpier in the afternoon. The tree-lined fairways aren’t easy to hit, but the rough shouldn’t be exceedingly penal. Shorter hitters are in play on this relatively short course, and accuracy will be at a premium.

There will be a re-routing at Silverado for this year’s Fortinet Championship. Ten holes will be played in a different order. Holes 1-7 and 18 will remain as in year’s past. The new finishing stretch – No. 14 (par 4), No. 15 (par 5), No. 16 (par 4), No. 17 (par 3) and No. 18 (par 5). The new 17th was previously the 11th, which is the signature hole on the course.

The field will consist of 155 players. Being the swing season, the field for this event is usually relatively weak. However, there are some intriguing names in the field including Justin Thomas, Webb Simpson, Sahith Theegala, Joel Dahmen, and Kevin Kisner.

Past Winners

2022: Max Homa (-22)
2021: Max Homa (-19)
2020: Stewart Cink (-21)
2019: Cameron Champ (-17)
2018: Kevin Tway (-14)
2017: Brendan Steele -15
2016: Brendan Steele -18

Let’s take a look at several key metrics for Silverado to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

Strokes Gained: Approach

Historically, one of the North Course’s defenses will be tightly tucked pin placement, so effective shot-shaping and a higher ball flight may be an advantage this week. In order to find success, players need to hit the correct level of the sloping Poa Annua greens.

Strokes Gained: Approach past 24 rounds:

Chez Reavie (+24.7)
Sam Ryder (+20.0)
Mark Hubbard (+17.8)
Kevin Streelman (+18.3)
Doug Ghim (+17.1)

Good Drives Gained

Hitting fairways in regulation at Silverado is more difficult than TOUR average, as players have done so in the past at a rate of only 52.2%. While the rough isn’t extremely long here, controlling spin out of the thick grass is much more difficult than doing so from the fairway. In order to find success, players need to hit the correct level of the sloping Poa annua greens.

In 2021, the top eight players on the leaderboard all had a positive week in “Good Drives Gained. The winner, Max Homa was +3.3 in the category and Mito Pereira, who finished third, was +8.3.

In 2022, 12 of the top 13 players on the leaderboard gained in the category including the winner Max Homa (+6.0) and runner up Danny Willet (5.0).

Good Drives Gained past 24 rounds:

Doug Ghim (+24.4)
Matt NeSmith (+23.8)
Russell Knox (+20.6)
Brice Garnett (+19.9)
Ryan Armour (+19.8)

Par 4: 400-450

There are six par 4’s at Silverado that are between 400 and 450-yards. It will be important to target players who excel at playing these holes. With the par 5s being fairly short and reachable, the par 4 scoring may prove to be the bigger difference-maker.

Par 4: 400-450 past 24 rounds:

Beau Hossler (+14.7)
Max Homa (+12.4)
Garrick Higgo (+8.5)
Justin Suh (+8.3)
Stephan Jaeger (+8.2)

Birdie or Better: Gained

With scores at Silverado potentially approaching the 20 under par range, making plenty of birdies will be a requirement in order to contend this week.

Birdie or Better: Gained in past 24 rounds:

Nick Hardy (+15.3)
Scott Piercy (+15.2)
Ryan Gerard (+14.9)
Max Homa (+14.0)
Peter Kuest (+13.5)

Strokes Gained: Putting (Poa Annua)

Poa annua greens on the West Coast can be quite difficult for golfers to adjust to if they don’t have much experience on the surface.

Prior to the 2019 Safeway Open, Phil Mickelson talked about how the type of putting surface is a major factor:

“I think a lot of guys struggle with the Poa annua greens, which is a grass that I grew up playing, so I’m very comfortable on the greens. When you grow up and spend most of your time back east in Florida on the Bermuda, this is a very awkward surface to putt on. The color looks different — it’s hard to sometimes read. But when you’re used to it, I don’t know of much better surfaces than these right here.”

This week it is important to look for the golfers who historically excel on Poa annua.

Total Strokes Gained in category in past 24 rounds:

Kevin Kisner (+27.7)
Max Homa (+21.2)
Peter Malnati (+20.5)
Justin Suh (+18.5)
Mackenzie Hughes (+16.0)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: APP (25%), Good Drives Gained: (25%), Birdie or Better (20%), Par 4: 400-450 (15%), SG: Putting (Poa annua) (15%).

Max Homa (+750)
Doug Ghim (+5000)
Andrew Putnam (+4000)
Chez Reavie (+4500)
Kevin Streelman (+5500)
Mark Hubbard (+5000)
Sam Ryder (+7000)
Brendon Todd (+3500)
Akshay Bhatia (+6000)
Cameron Davis (+2200)

2023 Fortinet Championship Picks

Sahith Theegala +2000 (DraftKings):

Sahith Theegala is yet to break out for his maiden PGA Tour victory but is a great candidate for a player who can have a strong fall and take advantage of some weaker fields. The 26-year-old ended his season on a positive note, finishing 13th at the FedEx St. Jude and 15th at the BMW Championship.

I’ve long believed that Theegala’s first win would come on the West Coast. He grew up in California and was a three-time All-American at Pepperdine University, where he became the fifth player to win the Jack Nicklaus Award, Haskins Award and Ben Hogan award all in the same year (2020). Sahith made his PGA Tour debut at Silverado in 2020, where he finished in a tie for 14th. Last year, he finished 6th at the Fortinet Championship.

Theegala is very comfortable playing in California. That is perhaps most noticeable on the putting surface where he gains an average of +0.44 strokes on the field per event on POA, which is more than four times what he gains on Bermudagrass or Bentgrass. The POA greens at Silverado can get especially difficult late in the day, which is a reason why players with a background on them have had so much success at the course. In the past seven years of the event, five winners have come from California.

Theegala is pricey this week and is as close to the top of the odds board as I can remember him being, but that’s the nature of the PGA Tour fall season. It’s hard to find a spot on the schedule that Sahith will have a better chance at winning than this one.

Justin Suh +5000 (PointsBet):

Consistency has been an issue early in the career of Justin Suh, but he’s shown flashes in 2023 of what made him such a highly regarded prospect to begin with. After a few top-10 finishes at the PLAYERS Championship and the Honda Classic, Suh ended the season on a bit of a sour note, failing to finish better than 34th in his last five starts of the season.

Despite the struggles, I’m optimistic about Suh as we begin the fall swing. The 26-year-old made the trip to Crans-Montana, Valais, Switzerland to play in the Omega European Masters, and finished 24th in a decent field. More encouraging than the finish was how Suh hit the ball. He gained 5.24 strokes on approach and hit plenty of fairways.

The 2018 Pac-12 Player of the Year grew up on California golf courses. Suh was a highly decorated amateur golfer with plenty of wins on the West Coast prior to attending USC, where he was one of the best players in the country.

When he’s on, Suh is one of the best putters on Tour, and he should comfortable playing in his home state in search of his first PGA Tour victory.

Akshay Bhatia +5500 (DraftKings):

Akshay Bhatia is still just 21 years old and one of the most tantalizing prospects in the world of golf. The smooth-swinging lefty was able to obtain his first PGA Tour victory at the Barracuda Championship at Tahoe Mountain Club in Truckee, California just a few months ago. The course is just a few hours ride from Silverado and the conditions and course should be very similar.

Bhatia will have no issue making birdies in bunches at Silverado, and the rough shouldn’t be exceedingly penal if he gets loose with his driver.

Bhatia made his debut at Silverado in 2020 at just 18 years old and managed to finish 9th. Since then, he’s gained a great deal of confidence and has refined his game as a professional.

Akshay got engaged this week. He can celebrate with a victory this week at the Fortinet.

Sam Ryder +8000 (FanDuel):

Statistically, Sam Ryder jumps off the page this week. In his past four measured starts, he’s gained 4.2, 5.4, 5.2 and 5.7 strokes on approach and is completely dialed in with his irons. Despite the numbers, he hasn’t managed to crack the top-30 on the leaderboard in that stretch but this is a field that is much weaker than he faced at the end of last season.

In addition to the recent stats, Ryder played some good golf on the West Coast last year. Most notably, he finished 4th at Torrey Pines in a loaded field and also finished 20th at both the Waste Managment Phoenix Open and the Genesis Invitational.

If Ryder continues with his hot approach play, he should be able to contend at Silverado this week.

Your Reaction?