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Tour Mash: DJ blows a six-stroke lead on Sunday, Rose capitalizes
Remember when September through November was the Silly Season? Skins Game and other made-for-television events were all that golf fans had to watch. Weren’t terrible, weren’t great. All is different in the realm of 2K17, where WGC in China, Schwab Cub on the Champions, CME on the LPGA and the Race To Dubai on the European Tour give us quality, meaningful golf nearly up to Thanksgiving. Time to mash some Halloween candy, pro-golf style.
Justin Rose wins World Golf HSBC Champions
No lie, the engraver was practicing “Dustin Johnson” on Saturday evening. The tall man they call DJ had a 6-stroke lead over Brooks Koepka, looking solid and unbeatable. The wind had something to say about things, and turned Johnson’s massive advantage into a gentle zephyr, floating away. In the end, Justin Rose took advantage and walked away with his second WGC title.
How the Rose bloomed
Want to know the secret to overcoming a large lead?
I THINK WHENEVER YOU’RE PLAYING BEHIND SOMEONE WITH A LEAD, TRY AND WIN THE OTHER GOLF TOURNAMENT. THAT’S ALWAYS MY MENTALITY. AND THEN JUST SEE WHAT HAPPENS. THE LEADER, YOU NEVER EXPECT HIM TO HAVE A BAD DAY, BUT JUST IN CASE, PLAY FOR SECOND.
Do what Rose did; beat all the other competitors and, if the golfer with the big lead falters, you have a chance. Rose wasn’t flawless on Sunday; he struggled like everyone else on the outward half, balancing three pars, birdies and bogeys. Still, he made two strokes up on the leader. On the inward half, the 2013 U.S. Open and 2016 Olympic champ was fire, with five birdies. In the end, Rose had a two-shot edge on Johnson, Brooks Koepka and Henrik Stenson.
How the field wilted
Shoot in the 60s and win, might nearly have been the mantra for the leaders on Sunday. Stenson would need 68 to tie, and he posted 70, with a critical, late bogey at 17. Koepka needed 69 to tie, and looked as though he would get it, until a crushing double-bogey on the 16th. And Johnson? All he needed was a putt or two. The Myrtle Beach Man could not buy a break in round four. He wasn’t lousy (13 pars, 5 bogeys) he just wasn’t Johnson. By the way, Rose was the only guy in the top 15 after round 3 to shoot in the 60s on Sunday.
Top 3 shots from #HSBCChampions final round
3. Rose goes back-to-back ????
2. Chipping > Putting ????
1. Bunker > Putting ???? pic.twitter.com/zAn8Q2CsXM— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) October 29, 2017
Cristie Kerr Continues Komeback at Sime Darby
See what we did up there? CK-CK? Yup, Halloween cheese. Back to Kerr. Her third win of the year was a battle, but she made just enough shots to notch the belt in Malaysia. After wins in Hawaii and France, Kerr’s Key might be to leave the continental U.S. in search of glory. Alliteration fun is not done. Kerr kept her komposure each time her swing betrayed her. Two holes after a double at the seventh, she made birdie. On the inward half, she bogeyed the 15th and 17th holes … and birdied 16 and 18, the latter for a walk-off win.
How Kerr closed the deal
There were low numbers (64 from Brooke Henderson, 65 from Nelly Korda) on the board on Sunday, but Kerr couldn’t find one. Fortunately, playing partner Shanshan Feng couldn’t take advantage of Kerr’s malaise. Want to know how good pro golfers are? They plan to mic-drop 35-foot putts on the final hole.
And then there was this… Kerr-Plunk! @CKGolferChic @SimeDarbyLPGA pic.twitter.com/RCnxZ8RGKG
— #CMEFinalStretch ???? (@LPGA) October 30, 2017
I KNEW IT WAS GOING TO BE LIKE A FIVE-WAY PLAYOFF. I WAS JUST LIKE, GOT TO DO IT. GOT TO DO IT. I WAS JUST, THE ONLY THING I COULD CONTROL WAS TRUSTING MY LINE AND HITTING THE PUTT WITH THE SPEED TO MAKE IT, AND I DID IT. NEVER LEFT THE HOLE. IT NEVER EVEN TRIED TO LIP OUT.
How the others lost
Jacqui Concolino and Danielle Kang did what was necessary. Both golfers shot low rounds (67 and 66, respectively) to enter the chase. Both came up one shot short, as did Feng, thanks to Kerr’s 72nd hole bottle rocket. Kang had nothing but pars through 11 holes, then close with an eagle and three birdies to come oh-so-close. Concolino played the first 12 holes in 4-under par, but a costly bogey at 15 was her undoing. As for Feng, two bogeys on the opening nine and two birdies on the inward side. Meh.
Sanderson Farms Championship is Armour’s First Tour Win
In pre-internet 1993, Ryan Armour lost the USGA Junior final match to Tiger Woods. Armour went on to Ohio State as a student-athlete, then bounced around every tour imaginable for 20 years. He won on the Web.Com tour in 2016, and now has his first PGA Tour victory at the Sanderson Farms Championship.
How Armour stayed in the moment
Can you want to win too much, for those around you and for yourself? Yes, you can. Ryan Armour may have wanted it more than words can say, but he kept matters simple: hit it in the middle of the fairway, hit it in the middle of the green, put the putter on it and see what happens. All week long, he was one or two better than his closest pursuers, which adds up to a five-shot cushion at 19-under par, five strokes clear of the resurgent Chesson Hadley. Jonathon Randolph had his low round of the week (67) on Sunday to jump up to solo third spot.
How the others tried, but didn’t quite make it
It’s hard to blame the pursuers when the leader gives them no room. In this event, the field was truly playing for second position. Hadley needed 63 in a week when no one went lower than 65. Everyone else needed a monumental Armour collapse, and it did not happen. Scott Strohmeyer won a playoff for the final tournament spot in Monday’s open qualifier, then caught lightning in a bottle with rounds of 72-67-68-71. His T4 finish means the man with no status whatsoever will play next week in Las Vegas.
That’s how you slam the door.
Ryan Armour has secured his first TOUR win at the @Sanderson_Champ! ???? pic.twitter.com/Y1g2XFhLKW
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) October 29, 2017
PowerShares QQQ Championship to Langer in extra holes
So sturdy was the play of both, as others around them faltered, that the gods of golf decreed that Bernhard Langer’s putt for the win, on the 54th green, would 360-degree lip out, and that he and Miguel Angel Jimenez would play overtime for the spoils of victory.
How Langer ground this one out
After 9 holes on day 3, Langer was behind David Toms and Scott McCarron, and didn’t have his usual, daunting game. On the inward half, he was perfect. The now seven-time champion in 2017 birdied four-of-the-first-five inward holes to assume the lead. Four closing pars nearly cost him the title, as Jimenez made his run. Even with the power lip-out on 18, Langer still had life and when given a second opportunity in the extra period, the German took advantage.
How Jimenez and company let this one slip away
Langer was beatable this week, but no one put him away. McCarron had a chance to do so, and came home in 1-over. Toms also had opportunity, but made only one par on a sloppy/brilliant back nine (5 birdies, 2 bogeys, 1 double.) It was Jimenez, after eagle three on the 16th brought him into a tie at the top, who had multiple, late opportunities. First, he missed a 10-feet putt for birdie on 17 to take the lead. Next, he missed a 15-feet putt for birdie at the last, which would have forced Langer to make for a half. Finally, the Spaniard missed a long but makeable birdie putt on the first extra hole. Note to future challengers: Langer doesn’t give anyone that many chances.
Just wow.
Bernhard Langer makes birdie on 2nd playoff hole to win @PwrShrsQQQChamp.
He takes the first 2 #SchwabCup Playoffs events. pic.twitter.com/q3fFqiRD87
— PGA TOUR Champions (@ChampionsTour) October 30, 2017
Indonesia Open to @ProCoconut
Twitter handle is @ProCoconut, ’nuff said. Panuphol Pittayarat held off a spate of longer last names to claim his first Asian Tour win, by five strokes. Think we’re kidding? Read on.
How @ProCoconut got the job done
Pittayarat had the low daily round (65) on two of the four tournament days. The other two 18s were 68 and 67. That totals 23-under and is tough to beat. The 24-year old Thai hit 62 greens in regulation and kept his putts under 30 in 3-of-4 rounds. Count 28 birdies on the week, and you have the recipe for winning stew.
How the others fell short
Certainly not in letters, they didn’t. Kaewsiribandit was five behind the winner in 2nd spot, while Janewattanond tied Tantipokhakul for third, at 15-under. For fun, Wannasrichan was one back, in the fifth spot. Now you know why Thais love nicknames. Great golf was played, but none could approach the efficiency of the winner.
Three straight birdies after the turn saw @prococonut leading by four on -21 with five to play #IndoOpenGolf pic.twitter.com/fYWRtskhod
— Asian Tour (@asiantourgolf) October 29, 2017
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Vincenzi’s 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson betting preview: International talent to shine
As anticipation mounts for the 2024 PGA Championship at Valhalla in a few weeks, the PGA Tour makes a pit stop in McKinney, Texas to play The CJ CUP Byron Nelson.
Last year was the third time TPC Craig Ranch hosted the Byron Nelson. Prior to 2021, the event was held at Trinity Forest Golf Club in Dallas.
TPC Craig Ranch is a 7,414-yard par-71 that features Bentgrass greens. The event historically plays relatively easy, and that has remained the case in the three editions at TPC Craig Ranch.
The course structure may provide some additional intrigue with the par-3 17th featuring a stadium setup called “Ranch 17” which is reminiscent of the 16th hole at TPC Scottsdale. The course also has both long and difficult par-4s mixed with drivable par-4s, which should create some exciting moments.
There are 156 golfers in the field this week, and many stars will be taking the week off to prepare for 2023’s second major championship in a few weeks and a “signature event” at Quail Hollow next week. Notable players in the field include Jordan Spieth, Jason Day, Sungjae Im, Stephan Jaeger, Tom Kim, Si Woo Kim, Min Woo Lee, Alex Noren, Adam Scott and Will Zalatoris.
Past Winners of the AT&T Byron Nelson
- 2023: Jason Day (-23 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2022: K.H. Lee (-26 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2021: K.H. Lee (-25 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2019: Sung Kang (-23)
- 2018: Aaron Wise (-23)
- 2017: Billy Horschel (-12)
- 2016: Sergio Garcia (-15)
- 2015: Steven Bowditch (-18)
Key Stats at TPC Craig Ranch
Let’s take a look at five key metrics for TPC Craig Ranch to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Approach remains the best measure of current form.
Hot iron play will be at a premium this week. Last year, Jason Day gained 6.4 strokes on approach, which was fourth in the field. In 2022, K.H. Lee was ninth in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining 5.2 strokes. In his 2021 victory, he was second in the field and gained 8.3 strokes on the field in the category.
Strokes Gaines: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds
- Tom Hoge (+1.12)
- Keith Mitchell (+1.02)
- Henrik Norlander (+0.99)
- Ryan Moore (+0.98)
- Ben Martin (0.80)
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Fairways are wide at TPC Craig Ranch.
Distance will certainly be helpful, and there aren’t too many difficult holes on the course. Golfers who put themselves in position off of the tee this week should have a sizable advantage.
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Over Past 24 Rounds
- Peter Kuest (+0.93)
- Kevin Daugherty (+0.91)
- Alejandro Tosti (+0.83)
- Keith Mitchell (+0.82)
- Kevin Tway (+0.74)
Birdie or Better %
There aren’t many hazards on the course, and all of the par-5s should be reachable in two for the majority of the players in the field. I am anticipating a birdie fest, and this statistic should be helpful in finding the birdie-makers.
Birdie or Better % Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Wesley Bryan (31%)
- Kelly Kraft (26.2%)
- Peter Kuest (25.9%)
- Matti Schmid (25.7%
- Jimmy Stanger (25.2%)
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
Many golfers on TOUR have some major putting surface variance in their statistics and prefer Bentgrass to other surfaces.
Bentgrass is common in Texas, and we often see golfers who play well in Texas continue to do so, finding a great feel around the greens.
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass) Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Maverick McNealy (+0.92)
- Aaron Baddeley (+0.87)
- Callum Tarren (+0.86)
- Harry Hall (+0.81)
- Nick Hardy (+0.69)
Course History
This statistic will tell us which players have performed the best at TPC Craig Ranch over the past three seasons.
Course History Over Past 12 Rounds:
- Jordan Spieth (+2.69)
- K.H. Lee (+2.59)
- Seamus Power (+1.84)
- Ryan Palmer (+1.76)
- Adam Scott (+1.72)
CJ CUP Byron Nelson Model Rankings
Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: OTT (24%), Birdie or Better % (18%), Course History (17%) and SG: Putting Bentgrass (16%).
- Alex Noren
- Adam Scott
- Keith Mitchell
- Si Woo Kim
- Stephen Jaeger
- Jordan Spieth
- Jhonnatan Vegas
- Nate Lashley
- Brice Garnett
- Tom Hoge
2024 CJ CUP Byron Nelson Picks
Byeong Hun An +3000 (DraftKings)
Byeong Hun put together an excellent performance at The Masters, finishing T16, which ties his best ever finish at a major championship (also T16 at 2019 U.S. Open). The South Korean gained 9.16 strokes from tee to green, which ranked 2nd in the field behind only the champion, Scottie Scheffler.
An’s next start at Harbour Town didn’t go as well (67th), but he still had a fantastic ball striking week. The 32-year-old bled strokes both around and on the greens, which was his eventual undoing. In his past three starts, An has gained significant strokes on the field both off the tee and on approach.
Benny had a strong start at last year’s Byron Nelson, finishing in a tie for 14th. With limited challenges on the course, he shouldn’t have to do much scrambling. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 17th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 17th in the field in birdie or better percentage. The putter is up and down per usual, but his ceiling putting weeks with his LAB Golf putter in 2024 are higher than they’ve been in past seasons.
An is starting to become my “white whale” of the PGA Tour, but I believe in his talent and TPC Craig Ranch is a course that should suit his excellent tee to green play.
Mackenzie Hughes +5500 (FanDuel)
Mackenzie Hughes is quietly putting together a very good season. He finished in a tie for 3rd at the Valspar Championship and followed that up with a T14 at the Texas Children’s Houston Open.
In his past 36 rounds in Texas, the Canadian ranks 5th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total. Last year, he finished in a tie for 14th at this event and gained strokes putting and off the tee. Mackenzie played well that week despite being in extremely poor form. He missed two cuts in a row prior to the event, and four consecutive cuts immediately after. His irons were off that week, but in 2024, we’ve seen an improvement in Hughes’ approach game. He now comes to the event playing some steady golf. He’s gained strokes on approach in four of his past five events and is hitting the ball very well from tee to green.
Hughes has two victories on the PGA Tour, both coming in relatively low-scoring affairs (-17 in each). He will need to go a bit deeper to win the CJ Cup Byron Nelson but has the type of putter that can keep pace in a birdie barrage.
Seamus Power +7000 (FanDuel)
After struggling over the past few seasons with injuries, Seamus Power seems as if he is rounding back into the form that made him a really consistent player on the PGA Tour.
Power finished T12 in his most recent start at the RBC Heritage, which is encouraging considering it was a “signature event” with a very strong field. For the week, the Irishman gained 4.4 strokes on approach and 2.8 strokes putting, which is the combination he’s used in the past to contend on Tour.
In his three trips to TPC Craig Ranch, Power is yet to finish outside of the top-20, with his best finish being a T9 in 2019. He ranks 4th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course. The 37-year-old thrives on easy tracks and has won in 2021 (Barbasol Championship) and 2022 (Butterfield Bermuda) on easier layouts with weaker fields.
Power has the game to go extremely low and I believe he can get back in the winner’s circle for the third time in four years.
Chan Kim +10000 (FanDuel)
Chan Kim has been striking the ball beautifully this season and is a proven winner with two wins on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2023 as well as eight career Japan Tour wins.
At last week’s Zurich Classic, Kim and his partner Doug Ghim finished in a tie for 28th. Prior to that, the South Korean T14 at the Valero Texas Open and T6 at the Corales Puntacana Championship. His success this season in Texas as well as he propensity to play his best golf on the PGA Tour’s easier courses make him and ideal fit for TPC Craig Ranch.
2024 has given plenty of longshot winners on the PGA Tour, and with a birdie fest like this, I believe there’s a strong chance we get another this week in McKinney, Texas.
Alejandro Tosti +10000 (FanDuel)
Alejandro Tosti is one of the most polarizing players on the PGA Tour thus far in the 2024 season. His antics can rub many the wrong way, but he’s shown on a few occasions that he has what it takes to compete in Tour events.
This season, Tosti has been elite off the tee. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 2nd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. The Argentine hits it long and straight, which works at any course on earth. He got a taste of contention a few starts ago at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, finishing in a tie for 2nd place.
Tosti had a fantastic year in 2023 on the Korn Ferry Tour, where going low is a prerequisite to success. If this turns to a shootout, which it likely will, the 27-year-old has the ability to set the pace. Tosti will look to become the second Argentine to win in Texas in the past two seasons after Emiliano Grillo emerged victorious at last year’s Charles Schwab Challenge.
C.T. Pan +15000 (FanDuel)
Outside of a T3 at the Mexico Open, C.T. Pan doesn’t have strong results this season in terms of finishes. However, over his past two starts, Pan’s iron play has come alive. At The Players, he gained 6.6 strokes on approach. At the Valero Texas Open, he gained 3.7. At last week’s Zurich Classic, Pan and his partner Kevin Yu finished T28. For a player who can get extremely hot with his scoring clubs, I believe he’s playing better than the results have shown over the past month or so.
Last season, Pan finished 4th at TPC Craig Ranch and was spectacular across all the major stat categories. In his past 36 qualifying rounds, he ranks 16th in Strokes Gained: Total in Texas.
Pan has won on the PGA Tour at the RBC Heritage and is always a player that I believe has what it takes to win on a Sunday if he finds himself in contention.
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Morning 9: McIlroy, Lowry win Zurich | Green repeats on LPGA | Steele victorious down under
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Morning 9: 58 on the Korn Ferry Tour | Rory on possible return to policy board
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DaveFromAccounting
Oct 31, 2017 at 2:17 pm
It could if the successful rounds were first and the least successful round was the one with the most pressure. It certainly looked like he had a hard time trusting his equipment when the pressure grew. Although, this isn’t totally out of character for DJ with, or without, new equipment.
Wonder Why
Oct 30, 2017 at 2:54 pm
DJ changes putter to TM Spider:
http://www.golfwrx.com/475988/dustin-johnson-switched-putters-in-the-most-dustin-johnson-of-fashions/
DJ switches to TM P-730s:
http://www.golfwrx.com/475046/dustin-johnson-switches-to-taylormade-p-730-dj-proto-irons-in-china/
DJ blows a six-stroke lead on Sunday ……… hmmmm ya think?
Ronald Montesano
Oct 30, 2017 at 10:14 pm
One unsuccessful round outweighs three successful ones?