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Are Your Approach Shots Holding You Back?

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The GolfWRX editors suggested that I research approach shots, as this is a crucial part of the game, and see if the stats can help golfers improve — or at least gain knowledge of the areas they need to improve.

As I did with my March 10 article: Research Shows Golfers Should Spend More Time Practicing Short Putts, I researched the average 17-handicap golfer from our database of more than 180,000 ShotByShot.com rounds.

I first isolated 3,200 rounds in our database with a 17 Slope Adjusted Differential (SAD). This would represent the average 17-handicap golfer (Mr. 17) when he played to his handicap or the best 10 of his most recent 20 rounds.

Next, I analyzed this large block of rounds just as I would a single player in order to reveal the strengths and weaknesses of his game. The results were interesting, and as you can see from the summary graphic below, his No. 1 Improvement Priority is Approach shot accuracy, specifically in the 150–175-yard range.

Appr. Art. 1

What does this analysis actually mean? Based upon our Strokes Gained model and analysis, in order for Mr. 17 to improve his game to the level of his “Target” Handicap (10 to 14), he would need the most improvement in his approach game and specifically on the 150–175-yard shots.

One might ask: Why not his Chip/Pitch facet? It is also at a relative handicap of 20. Simple, he only has 9.5 Chip/Pitch shots per round vs. 17.6 approach shots each round. The result of the analysis is always a combination of frequency and severity.

Let’s start with the frequency. The chart below displays the number of approach shots from the fairway as they relate to Mr. 17’s TOTAL approach shots (all shot of 50+ yards from Fairway-Tee, Rough or Sand). To be clear, shots from the fairway (and tee) represent 68 percent of ALL of Mr. 17’s approach shots. For perspective, I have included like numbers for the 2016 PGA Tour. Note the obvious spike in the 151-175-yard range. Just over one in every four of Mr. 17’s attempts fall in this range.

Appr. Art. 2

Severity: Not only does this particular distance own the most opportunities, but it is also the most costly. That is, Mr. 17 loses more strokes on average PER SHOT from this range than any other, a negative strokes gained of 0.43 per shot. Why? He only hits the green with 35 percent of his attempts AND makes an error* with 5 percent of his attempts.

*Approach error is a penalty result or a shot hit poorly enough to require a second approach from greater than 50 yards.

Appr. Art. 3I have a theory on why this particular range is so costly. I believe that this distance tends to represent the greatest distance from which MOST of us still hit traditional irons (7, 6 and 5 irons). Outside of 175 yards, we tend to go to hybrids, which are much more forgiving. These longer iron shots require the combination of club head speed and crisp contact in order to carry the distance needed AND hold the green. I personally have resorted to a 5 hybrid for the top end of this critical range.

Conclusions

If your game is like Mr. 17’s, I suggest:

  1. Devote some more range time to the 150-175 distances.
  2. Consider more forgiving irons or hybrids.
  3. Adjust your targets from these longer distances to the middle, even back-middle, of the greens.

For a complete Strokes Gained Analysis of your game, you can visit www.shotbyshot.com.

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In 1989, Peter Sanders founded Golf Research Associates, LP, creating what is now referred to as Strokes Gained Analysis. His goal was to design and market a new standard of statistically based performance analysis programs using proprietary computer models. A departure from “traditional stats,” the program provided analysis with answers, supported by comparative data. In 2006, the company’s website, ShotByShot.com, was launched. It provides interactive, Strokes Gained analysis for individual golfers and more than 150 instructors and coaches that use the program to build and monitor their player groups. Peter has written, or contributed to, more than 60 articles in major golf publications including Golf Digest, Golf Magazine and Golf for Women. From 2007 through 2013, Peter was an exclusive contributor and Professional Advisor to Golf Digest and GolfDigest.com. Peter also works with PGA Tour players and their coaches to interpret the often confusing ShotLink data. Zach Johnson has been a client for nearly five years. More recently, Peter has teamed up with Smylie Kaufman’s swing coach, Tony Ruggiero, to help guide Smylie’s fast-rising career.

25 Comments

25 Comments

  1. Dave R

    May 3, 2017 at 11:54 pm

    Mr. Nicklaus hello where are you. Unbelievable ! Best ever golfer what happened.

  2. Dave

    May 1, 2017 at 2:27 pm

    Leave it golf RX to screw up a link even. I wanted to read about why no one taught Mr. Nicklaus’s swing, and end up reading about some dude needing work on his approach.

    • indyvic

      May 3, 2017 at 2:47 am

      Nicklaus golf swing? ‘Asleep at the wheel?’

  3. Nigel Kent

    May 1, 2017 at 2:16 pm

    I thought this is supposed to be about Chamblee’s take on Nicklaus ???

  4. Shortside

    May 1, 2017 at 11:34 am

    I see realistic room for improvement from 100-150 yards. I am Mr. 17 and that is my window of opportunity. Or should I say lost opportunity. Being Mr. 17 that’s where most of my good tee shots leave me (white tees, where I belong). Most of my range time is devoted to it. Yet when I get on the course I seem to take a stupid pill. Pushed or pulled far too often. My personal analysis is pretty simple. I’m not finishing at my target. Hoping this is the year a little more focus on that gets me to an 8 GIR average. In theory that should get me to Mr. 13-14.

  5. Matto

    Apr 29, 2017 at 6:48 am

    You’re darn tootn. I hit 80%+ of fairways. Getting off the tee is no stress for me. Get a wedge in my hand and I’ll generally hit the green most times under 100. Around the green? No problem….I love the short game. Putting? Not too bad. But I’m an 11hc and that’s ALL thanks to approach shots. Hitting mid to long irons off grass? I basically have NO idea what I’m doing. 30 years of playing and it’s always held me back.

    • IHateLoveGolf

      May 1, 2017 at 1:10 pm

      I’m your exact opposite with weakness. I lose a handful of balls every round from the tee and shoot in the 80s. Irons? Easy peasy. If I (only had a brain) could tee off, I’d be single-digit and maybe even mid single digit.

  6. H

    Apr 29, 2017 at 3:37 am

    I can’t get off the tee, so no, my approach shots don’t hold me back as it takes me about 3 shots to get anywhere near the green, but my short game is deadly

  7. Greg

    Apr 28, 2017 at 9:39 am

    I believe more often then not Mr 17 tees it too far back. Move up one tee box and lower the amount of 150+ yard shots by 4 or 5 and he or she will improve. Also without slowing down the pace of play. Tee it forward.

  8. Parker0065

    Apr 28, 2017 at 9:31 am

    Great article!
    I guess I’ve been preaching this idea for +30 years when people ask how to consistently break 80(or whatever scoring level). I played a lot of golf as a junior, many rounds just me, my bag and the summer sun. By age 13 I was getting so close to breaking 80 and at the end of that season I did a full blown analysis of my game and stats(Crazy, I know, but all I ever thought or cared about as a kid was golf, until girls came along that is), and my conclusion was I just wasn’t hitting enough greens and had to get better with my iron approaches.
    Going into the following season I set out on a mission to do just that and over the first few months I did start to hit more greens. For me it was a combination of taking more conservative lines to the greens, as well as simply continuing to improve my golf swing.
    To me it’s all relative. Just saying “your going to hit more greens” is one thing but without actually “improving your golf swing” makes the idea of hitting more greens just irrelevant words!

    I’ll also add that for me hitting more greens to lower my scores into a competitive zone was a two step process. After my GIR stats started to improve that season many years ago as a junior I quickly realized I had to put in more time with “Lag Putting”. Holes in the past where I may have missed the green I was now faced with 30-40 foot lag putts. Which with a little practice become much easier to two putt versus trying to get up and down from all over the place. Plus it actually takes pressure off your short game(until you start shooting around or under par anyways) because you don’t have to rely on getting up and down 5-7 times a round to break 80.

    By August of that season(1979) I was consistently breaking 80 and never looked back!

  9. Peter Sanders

    Apr 28, 2017 at 8:58 am

    Steve,
    An 8 handicap from the Sand means that the player’s average putting distances following successful sand shots AND his % Errors (shots that do not find the green) match the profile of the average 8 handicap. It is based on Strokes Gained from the sand. While “Saves” are nice and important, they have nothing to do with the assessment of a player’s sand performance – Saves are two facets: Sand and Putting.

  10. WILLIAM MARTELLA

    Apr 28, 2017 at 8:13 am

    Pete, can you do a similar analysis for people in the 10-14 range looking to get to single digits? I’d like to see if this scoring zone shifts at all.

    • Dave

      Apr 28, 2017 at 8:29 am

      I would imagine the chipping and putting would be the focal point then.

    • Peter Sanders

      Apr 28, 2017 at 9:02 am

      Could be a good idea for another article. I will think about it. Thanks!

  11. Simms

    Apr 27, 2017 at 11:52 pm

    I find this idea completely correct….even pros end up missing cuts/or finishing low in the money because of this, and they are hitting 8,9 irons from 170. John Daly would be a prime example I would think..

  12. mikee

    Apr 27, 2017 at 8:09 pm

    My instructor wants to see only two stats on my scorecard …..GIR and distance from the pin after the approach shot. She wants 12 to 14 GIR (I am a 7 hcp) and as close as possible to the pin. Tiger dominated for years because he was first in both those stats.

    • Peter Sanders

      Apr 28, 2017 at 9:12 am

      mikee,
      12 – 14 GIR’s? A lofty goal! PGA Tour average is 12.5 and the Winner’s on Tour average 13. The average 7 handicap hits 8 GIR’s. Where are you now?

      • mikee

        Apr 28, 2017 at 9:26 am

        I’m at 10 GIR……but I putt terribly ….about 33 to 35 per round

  13. Matt

    Apr 27, 2017 at 4:53 pm

    Yep, fairway approach shots and pitching / chipping

  14. Mark

    Apr 27, 2017 at 4:20 pm

    Good article. I am struggling at the moment and hitting greens, never mind hitting it close is my weak area. The range beckons…

  15. Chris Bunting

    Apr 27, 2017 at 3:09 pm

    Maybe Mr.17 needs to move up a T box? I do not consider 175 yards an approach shot if I got off the T properly. Its more of a try to limit the damage shot since I barfed all over the T shot and now need a good recovery or else a big number looms.

    I do practice my approach shots quite a bit, but thats with a 7i-54* wedge.

    • george

      Apr 27, 2017 at 3:58 pm

      If you’re playing in the States you have the possibility to ease out and move up a tee, sure. But if you’re playing anywhere else in the world, the men’s tees are the men’s tees regardless of your driving distance or your hcp. The mens tees are rated and your hcp is based on the men’s tees. So you play the men’s tees and not some kind of colour code. And that, my friend, means that real golfers in the UK, anywhere else in Europe or Africa play from 6300-6700yds. If your Par4s are 410+yds you better learn how to hit those approaches from 170 or pitch it close with your 3rd.

    • WILLIAM MARTELLA

      Apr 28, 2017 at 8:10 am

      Also doesn’t take in to account the intentional play from the tee. 175 yards in is a 7 iron for me. Normally I would say I am closer, but my expectation is to be on or near the green with 6 iron or shorter, aka 185 and in.

      Moving up or back should be decided by your ability to hit for distance/accuracy

  16. Steve

    Apr 27, 2017 at 11:43 am

    I wonder what an 8 handicap out of the sand really means. My guess is gets out of the sand most of the time, but rarely gets a sandie.

  17. golfraven

    Apr 27, 2017 at 11:10 am

    Nice breakdown and analysis. Good to know the trouble zone (150-175 – 7,6,5 iron) so I will look out what mine is and work on it. Are my approaches holding my game back? Heck yeah – last round was 80% FIR but only 33% GIR – sucker.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s LIV Golf Singapore betting preview: Course specialist ready to thrive once again

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After another strong showing in Australia, LIV Golf will head to Sentosa Golf Club in Singapore looking to build off of what was undoubtedly their best event to date.

Sentosa Golf Club sits on the southern tip of Singapore and is one of the most beautiful courses in the world. The course is more than just incredible scenically; it was also rated 55th in Golf Digest’s top-100 courses in 2022-2023 and has been consistently regarded as one of the best courses in Asia. Prior to being part of the LIV rotation, the course hosted the Singapore Open every year since 2005.

Sentosa Golf Club is a par 71 measuring 7,406 yards. The course will require precise ball striking and some length off the tee. It’s possible to go low due to the pristine conditions, but there are also plenty of hazards and difficult spots on the course that can bring double bogey into play in a hurry. The Bermudagrass greens are perfectly manicured, and the course has spent millions on the sub-air system to keep the greens rolling fast. I spoke to Asian Tour player, Travis Smyth, who described the greens as “the best [he’s] ever played.”

Davis Love III, who competed in a Singapore Open in 2019, also gushed over the condition of the golf course.

“I love the greens. They are fabulous,” the 21-time PGA Tour winner said.

Love III also spoke about other aspects of the golf course.

“The greens are great; the fairways are perfect. It is a wonderful course, and it’s tricky off the tee.”

“It’s a long golf course, and you get some long iron shots. It takes somebody hitting it great to hit every green even though they are big.”

As Love III said, the course can be difficult off the tee due to the length of the course and the trouble looming around every corner. It will take a terrific ball striking week to win at Sentosa Golf Club.

In his pre-tournament press conference last season, Phil Mickelson echoed many of the same sentiments.

“To play Sentosa effectively, you’re going to have a lot of shots from 160 to 210, a lot of full 6-, 7-, 8-iron shots, and you need to hit those really well and you need to drive the ball well.”

Golfers who excel from tee to green and can dial in their longer irons will have a massive advantage this week.

Stat Leaders at LIV Golf Adelaide:

Fairways Hit

1.) Louis Oosthuizen

2.) Anirban Lahiri

3.) Jon Rahm

4.) Brendan Steele

5.) Cameron Tringale

Greens in Regulation

1.) Brooks Koepka

2.) Brendan Steele

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Cameron Tringale

5.) Anirban Lahiri

Birdies Made

1.) Brendan Steele

2.) Dean Burmester

3.) Thomas Pieters

4.) Patrick Reed

5.) Carlos Ortiz

LIV Golf Individual Standings:

1.) Joaquin Niemann

2.) Jon Rahm

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Louis Oosthuizen

5.) Abraham Ancer

LIV Golf Team Standings:

1.) Crushers

2.) Legion XIII

3.) Torque

4.) Stinger GC

5.) Ripper GC

LIV Golf Singapore Picks

Sergio Garcia +3000 (DraftKings)

Sergio Garcia is no stranger to Sentosa Golf Club. The Spaniard won the Singapore Open in 2018 by five strokes and lost in a playoff at LIV Singapore last year to scorching hot Talor Gooch. Looking at the course setup, it’s no surprise that a player like Sergio has played incredible golf here. He’s long off the tee and is one of the better long iron players in the world when he’s in form. Garcia is also statistically a much better putter on Bermudagrass than he is on other putting surfaces. He’s putt extremely well on Sentosa’s incredibly pure green complexes.

This season, Garcia has two runner-up finishes, both of them being playoff losses. Both El Camaleon and Doral are courses he’s had success at in his career. The Spaniard is a player who plays well at his tracks, and Sentosa is one of them. I believe Sergio will get himself in the mix this week. Hopefully the third time is a charm in Singapore.

Paul Casey +3300 (FanDuel)

Paul Casey is in the midst of one of his best seasons in the five years or so. The results recently have been up and down, but he’s shown that when he’s on a golf course that suits his game, he’s amongst the contenders.

This season, Casey has finishes of T5 (LIV Las Vegas), T2 (LIV Hong Kong), and a 6th at the Singapore Classic on the DP World Tour. At his best, the Englishman is one of the best long iron players in the world, which makes him a strong fit for Sentosa. Despite being in poor form last season, he was able to fire a Sunday 63, which shows he can low here at the course.

It’s been three years since Casey has won a tournament (Omega Dubai Desert Classic in 2021), but he’s been one of the top players on LIV this season and I think he can get it done at some point this season.

Mito Pereira +5000 (Bet365)

Since Mito Pereira’s unfortunate demise at the 2022 PGA Championship, he’s been extremely inconsistent. However, over the past few months, the Chilean has played well on the International Series as well as his most recent LIV start. Mito finished 8th at LIV Adelaide, which was his best LIV finish this season.

Last year, Pereira finished 5th at LIV Singapore, shooting fantastic rounds of 67-66-66. It makes sense why Mito would like Sentosa, as preeminent ball strikers tend to rise to the challenge of the golf course. He’s a great long iron player who is long and straight off the tee.

Mito has some experience playing in Asia and is one of the most talented players on LIV who’s yet to get in the winner’s circle. I have questions about whether or not he can come through once in contention, but if he gets there, I’m happy to roll the dice.

Andy Ogletree +15000 (DraftKings)

Andy Ogletree is a player I expected to have a strong 2024 but struggled early in his first full season on LIV. After failing to crack the top-25 in any LIV event this year, the former U.S. Amateur champion finally figured things out, finished in a tie for 3rd at LIV Adelaide.

Ogletree should be incredible comfortable playing in Singapore. He won the International Series Qatar last year and finished T3 at the International Series Singapore. The 26-year-old was arguably the best player on the Asian Tour in 2023 and has been fantastic in the continent over the past 18 months.

If Ogletree has indeed found form, he looks to be an amazing value at triple-digit odds.

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Lessons from the worst golf instructor in America

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In Tampa, there is a golf course that boasts carts that do not work, a water range, and a group of players none of which have any chance to break 80. The course is overseen by a staff of crusty men who have succeeded at nothing in life but ending up at the worst-run course in America. However, this place is no failure. With several other local courses going out of business — and boasting outstanding greens — the place is booked full.

While I came for the great greens, I stayed to watch our resident instructor; a poor-tempered, method teacher who caters to the hopeless. At first, it was simply hilarious. However, after months of listening and watching, something clicked. I realized I had a front-row seat to the worst golf instructor in America.

Here are some of my key takeaways.

Method Teacher

It is widely accepted that there are three types of golf instructors: system teachers, non-system teachers, and method teachers. Method teachers prescribe the same antidote for each student based on a preamble which teachers can learn in a couple day certification.

Method teaching allows anyone to be certified. This process caters to the lowest caliber instructor, creating the illusion of competency. This empowers these underqualified instructors with the moniker of “certified” to prey on the innocent and uninformed.

The Cult of Stack and Jilt

The Stack and Tilt website proudly boasts, “A golfer swings his hands inward in the backswing as opposed to straight back to 1) create power, similar to a field goal kicker moving his leg in an arc and 2) to promote a swing that is in-to-out, which produces a draw (and eliminates a slice).”

Now, let me tell you something, there is this law of the universe which says “energy can either be created or destroyed,” so either these guys are defying physics or they have no idea what they are taking about. Further, the idea that the first move of the backswing determines impact is conjecture with a splash of utter fantasy.

These are the pontifications of a method — a set of prescriptions applied to everyone with the hope of some success through the placebo effect. It is one thing for a naive student to believe, for a golf instructor to drink and then dispel this Kool-Aid is malpractice.

Fooled by Randomness

In flipping a coin, or even a March Madness bet, there is a 50-50 chance of success. In golf, especially for new players, results are asymmetric. Simply put: Anything can happen. The problem is that when bad instructors work with high handicappers, each and every shot gets its own diagnosis and prescription. Soon the student is overwhelmed.

Now here’s the sinister thing: The overwhelming information is by design. In this case, the coach is not trying to make you better, they are trying to make you reliant on them for information. A quasi Stockholm syndrome of codependency.

Practice

One of the most important scientists of the 20th century was Ivan Pavlov. As you might recall, he found that animals, including humans, could be conditioned into biological responses. In golf, the idea of practice has made millions of hackers salivate that they are one lesson or practice session from “the secret.”

Sunk Cost

The idea for the worst golf instructor is to create control and dependency so that clients ignore the sunk cost of not getting better. Instead, they are held hostage by the idea that they are one lesson or tip away from unlocking their potential.

Cliches

Cliches have the effect of terminating thoughts. However, they are the weapon of choice for this instructor. Add some hyperbole and students actually get no information. As a result, these players couldn’t play golf. When they did, they had no real scheme. With no idea what they are doing, they would descend into a spiral of no idea what to do, bad results, lower confidence, and running back to the lesson tee from more cliches.

The fact is that poor instruction is about conditioning players to become reliant members of your cult. To take away autonomy. To use practice as a form of control. To sell more golf lessons not by making people better but through the guise that without the teacher, the student can never reach their full potential. All under the umbrella of being “certified” (in a 2-day course!) and a melee of cliches.

This of course is not just happening at my muni but is a systemic problem around the country and around the world, the consequences of which are giving people a great reason to stop playing golf. But hey, at least it’s selling a lot of golf balls…

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

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The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

  • 2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
  • 2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
  • 2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
  • 2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
  • 2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
  • 2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

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