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Five things we learned on Day 3 of the 2017 Masters
We’ve all had a refresher course on how The Masters doesn’t truly begin until the back nine on Sunday. That doesn’t mean that Saturday falls from importance. To the contrary, more than a handful of golfers seized the opportunity to separate a bit from the field and insert themselves into the Sunday conversation.
Curious? Let’s see what we learned on Day 3 of the 81st Masters.
Odds are that a fresh Masters champion will emerge
Just barely, though. Adam Scott, Jordan Spieth and Charl Schwartzel each played their way into contention on Day 3. Winners of three of the past six playings, each of that trio went into the 60s to move within three strokes of the lead. On the other hand, Justin Rose, Rickie Fowler and Sergio Garcia occupy the top three spots on the leaderboard. Rose has the most success in events of this stature, with a U.S. Open and an Olympic gold medal on his resume. Also in the hunt are Charley Hoffman and Ryan Moore. Moore was quite decorated as an amateur but little more than a journeyman pro until his 2016 Ryder Cup heroics. Hoffman had the opportunity to play alongside eventual champion Jordan Spieth in 2015, doubtless gleaning wisdom from the opportunity.
Watch @JordanSpieth make a 44-foot putt for birdie on No. 6 to get to 1-under par. #themasters pic.twitter.com/Yh8e68xwne
— Masters Tournament (@TheMasters) April 8, 2017
When you don’t know what you don’t know
Your name is Rory McIlroy, or Thomas Pieters, or Jon Rahm. The last two can be forgiven their missteps. They are novice Masters contestants and their urgent rises and falls can be attributed to a scant understanding and appreciation of the vagaries and nuances of the greens, the winds, the patron reactions and other elements of this singular event. Pieters twice reached 4-under par this week, and twice dropped 3-4 strokes on the inward half. Rahm inched to 2-under on multiple occasions, but was never able to sustain that number, much less go deeper. We will find out next year what they’ve learned from Masters 1.0.
McIlroy is a much more perplexing study. With the departure of Dustin Johnson on Thursday, the Ulsterman became the favorite to win in the eyes of many. Rory reached red figures at the third hole on Saturday, but gave two back with a double bogey at the 7th. He fought back to even par, but unless a Sunday 63 sits quietly in his bag, 2017 will pass without a career grand slam for the media-heir apparent to Tiger’s crown.
Masters 2017: Rory McIlroy | 2nd Hole, Round 3 pic.twitter.com/zLOLQyOWHX
— Masters Highlights (@MastersMoments) April 8, 2017
Does Westwood have a career round in him?
No one wants to be the next coming of Monty, a Brit with superior skills but an inability to close out a major title. Westwood has been close in many, and he has also been quite distant (as he was last fall at the Ryder Cup, when his putting was symptomatic of St. Vitus’ dance.) On this third day, Westwood signed for 68 and moved to red figures, five shots behind the lead. It’s almost too much to hope that the European stalwart might summon his best and emerge from a crowded and talented field. It will take a round deep into the 60s to offer any chance at immortality. It has happened before, for lesser golfers, so perhaps it’s finally Lee’s time.
Masters 2017: Lee Westwood | 6th Hole, Round 3 pic.twitter.com/sIYP56CxXh
— Masters Highlights (@MastersMoments) April 8, 2017
There’s much to be said for mellow
Fred Couples has been the master of mellow for his entire career. While it only earned him one major title, he certainly won his share of tour events. For yet another year, the Washington state native played himself into contention. He went for the gusto at “The Locker” (holes Nos. 15 and 16, if you haven’t heard) but the pairing of double bogey with bogey dropped him from 2-under to 1-over and out of contention.
A fellow mellow aspirant is first-time participant William McGirt, who earned his invitation with a win at the 2016 Memorial. He promised to enjoy the walks around the course and to soak up as much of the Masters experience as possible. As late as the 16th hole on Saturday, McGirt stood 2-under, but closing bogeys at Nos. 17 and 18 dropped him back. Still, he’ll have one more walk around the nursery on Sunday, and you can bet he’ll be relaxed.
Watch Fred Couples save par from 35 feet on No. 14 to remain at 2-under par. #themasters pic.twitter.com/w4iRanFrzj
— Masters Tournament (@TheMasters) April 8, 2017
Sunday pairings and some closing thoughts
Justin Rose and Sergio Garcia will go off last, preceded immediately by Rickie Fowler and Jordan Spieth, with Ryan Moore and Charley Hoffman in the antepenultimate duo. Those matches could not set up any better for the six. Rose and Garcia have been European Ryder Cup teammates for over a decade. Fowler and Spieth represent much of the present and future of American golf, and Moore and Hoffman are two guys who should have no real shot at being here, but here is exactly where they are.
So here’s the prediction: one of those pairings will feature a shootout for the ages. It will resemble the Stenson-Mickelson duel of Open Championship 2016… and may even surpass it. Rarely are so many golfers so well matched. Masters Sunday should surpass even these highlights!
Watch highlights from @JDayGolf, @JustinThomas34, @JamesHahnPGA, @MattFitz94, @ahadwingolf, @GrilloEmiliano and @DanielBerger59. #themasters pic.twitter.com/1eEaJBlsV1
— Masters Tournament (@TheMasters) April 8, 2017
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News
Vincenzi’s 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson betting preview: International talent to shine
As anticipation mounts for the 2024 PGA Championship at Valhalla in a few weeks, the PGA Tour makes a pit stop in McKinney, Texas to play The CJ CUP Byron Nelson.
Last year was the third time TPC Craig Ranch hosted the Byron Nelson. Prior to 2021, the event was held at Trinity Forest Golf Club in Dallas.
TPC Craig Ranch is a 7,414-yard par-71 that features Bentgrass greens. The event historically plays relatively easy, and that has remained the case in the three editions at TPC Craig Ranch.
The course structure may provide some additional intrigue with the par-3 17th featuring a stadium setup called “Ranch 17” which is reminiscent of the 16th hole at TPC Scottsdale. The course also has both long and difficult par-4s mixed with drivable par-4s, which should create some exciting moments.
There are 156 golfers in the field this week, and many stars will be taking the week off to prepare for 2023’s second major championship in a few weeks and a “signature event” at Quail Hollow next week. Notable players in the field include Jordan Spieth, Jason Day, Sungjae Im, Stephan Jaeger, Tom Kim, Si Woo Kim, Min Woo Lee, Alex Noren, Adam Scott and Will Zalatoris.
Past Winners of the AT&T Byron Nelson
- 2023: Jason Day (-23 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2022: K.H. Lee (-26 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2021: K.H. Lee (-25 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2019: Sung Kang (-23)
- 2018: Aaron Wise (-23)
- 2017: Billy Horschel (-12)
- 2016: Sergio Garcia (-15)
- 2015: Steven Bowditch (-18)
Key Stats at TPC Craig Ranch
Let’s take a look at five key metrics for TPC Craig Ranch to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Approach remains the best measure of current form.
Hot iron play will be at a premium this week. Last year, Jason Day gained 6.4 strokes on approach, which was fourth in the field. In 2022, K.H. Lee was ninth in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining 5.2 strokes. In his 2021 victory, he was second in the field and gained 8.3 strokes on the field in the category.
Strokes Gaines: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds
- Tom Hoge (+1.12)
- Keith Mitchell (+1.02)
- Henrik Norlander (+0.99)
- Ryan Moore (+0.98)
- Ben Martin (0.80)
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Fairways are wide at TPC Craig Ranch.
Distance will certainly be helpful, and there aren’t too many difficult holes on the course. Golfers who put themselves in position off of the tee this week should have a sizable advantage.
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Over Past 24 Rounds
- Peter Kuest (+0.93)
- Kevin Daugherty (+0.91)
- Alejandro Tosti (+0.83)
- Keith Mitchell (+0.82)
- Kevin Tway (+0.74)
Birdie or Better %
There aren’t many hazards on the course, and all of the par-5s should be reachable in two for the majority of the players in the field. I am anticipating a birdie fest, and this statistic should be helpful in finding the birdie-makers.
Birdie or Better % Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Wesley Bryan (31%)
- Kelly Kraft (26.2%)
- Peter Kuest (25.9%)
- Matti Schmid (25.7%
- Jimmy Stanger (25.2%)
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
Many golfers on TOUR have some major putting surface variance in their statistics and prefer Bentgrass to other surfaces.
Bentgrass is common in Texas, and we often see golfers who play well in Texas continue to do so, finding a great feel around the greens.
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass) Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Maverick McNealy (+0.92)
- Aaron Baddeley (+0.87)
- Callum Tarren (+0.86)
- Harry Hall (+0.81)
- Nick Hardy (+0.69)
Course History
This statistic will tell us which players have performed the best at TPC Craig Ranch over the past three seasons.
Course History Over Past 12 Rounds:
- Jordan Spieth (+2.69)
- K.H. Lee (+2.59)
- Seamus Power (+1.84)
- Ryan Palmer (+1.76)
- Adam Scott (+1.72)
CJ CUP Byron Nelson Model Rankings
Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: OTT (24%), Birdie or Better % (18%), Course History (17%) and SG: Putting Bentgrass (16%).
- Alex Noren
- Adam Scott
- Keith Mitchell
- Si Woo Kim
- Stephen Jaeger
- Jordan Spieth
- Jhonnatan Vegas
- Nate Lashley
- Brice Garnett
- Tom Hoge
2024 CJ CUP Byron Nelson Picks
Byeong Hun An +3000 (DraftKings)
Byeong Hun put together an excellent performance at The Masters, finishing T16, which ties his best ever finish at a major championship (also T16 at 2019 U.S. Open). The South Korean gained 9.16 strokes from tee to green, which ranked 2nd in the field behind only the champion, Scottie Scheffler.
An’s next start at Harbour Town didn’t go as well (67th), but he still had a fantastic ball striking week. The 32-year-old bled strokes both around and on the greens, which was his eventual undoing. In his past three starts, An has gained significant strokes on the field both off the tee and on approach.
Benny had a strong start at last year’s Byron Nelson, finishing in a tie for 14th. With limited challenges on the course, he shouldn’t have to do much scrambling. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 17th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 17th in the field in birdie or better percentage. The putter is up and down per usual, but his ceiling putting weeks with his LAB Golf putter in 2024 are higher than they’ve been in past seasons.
An is starting to become my “white whale” of the PGA Tour, but I believe in his talent and TPC Craig Ranch is a course that should suit his excellent tee to green play.
Mackenzie Hughes +5500 (FanDuel)
Mackenzie Hughes is quietly putting together a very good season. He finished in a tie for 3rd at the Valspar Championship and followed that up with a T14 at the Texas Children’s Houston Open.
In his past 36 rounds in Texas, the Canadian ranks 5th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total. Last year, he finished in a tie for 14th at this event and gained strokes putting and off the tee. Mackenzie played well that week despite being in extremely poor form. He missed two cuts in a row prior to the event, and four consecutive cuts immediately after. His irons were off that week, but in 2024, we’ve seen an improvement in Hughes’ approach game. He now comes to the event playing some steady golf. He’s gained strokes on approach in four of his past five events and is hitting the ball very well from tee to green.
Hughes has two victories on the PGA Tour, both coming in relatively low-scoring affairs (-17 in each). He will need to go a bit deeper to win the CJ Cup Byron Nelson but has the type of putter that can keep pace in a birdie barrage.
Seamus Power +7000 (FanDuel)
After struggling over the past few seasons with injuries, Seamus Power seems as if he is rounding back into the form that made him a really consistent player on the PGA Tour.
Power finished T12 in his most recent start at the RBC Heritage, which is encouraging considering it was a “signature event” with a very strong field. For the week, the Irishman gained 4.4 strokes on approach and 2.8 strokes putting, which is the combination he’s used in the past to contend on Tour.
In his three trips to TPC Craig Ranch, Power is yet to finish outside of the top-20, with his best finish being a T9 in 2019. He ranks 4th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course. The 37-year-old thrives on easy tracks and has won in 2021 (Barbasol Championship) and 2022 (Butterfield Bermuda) on easier layouts with weaker fields.
Power has the game to go extremely low and I believe he can get back in the winner’s circle for the third time in four years.
Chan Kim +10000 (FanDuel)
Chan Kim has been striking the ball beautifully this season and is a proven winner with two wins on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2023 as well as eight career Japan Tour wins.
At last week’s Zurich Classic, Kim and his partner Doug Ghim finished in a tie for 28th. Prior to that, the South Korean T14 at the Valero Texas Open and T6 at the Corales Puntacana Championship. His success this season in Texas as well as he propensity to play his best golf on the PGA Tour’s easier courses make him and ideal fit for TPC Craig Ranch.
2024 has given plenty of longshot winners on the PGA Tour, and with a birdie fest like this, I believe there’s a strong chance we get another this week in McKinney, Texas.
Alejandro Tosti +10000 (FanDuel)
Alejandro Tosti is one of the most polarizing players on the PGA Tour thus far in the 2024 season. His antics can rub many the wrong way, but he’s shown on a few occasions that he has what it takes to compete in Tour events.
This season, Tosti has been elite off the tee. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 2nd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. The Argentine hits it long and straight, which works at any course on earth. He got a taste of contention a few starts ago at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, finishing in a tie for 2nd place.
Tosti had a fantastic year in 2023 on the Korn Ferry Tour, where going low is a prerequisite to success. If this turns to a shootout, which it likely will, the 27-year-old has the ability to set the pace. Tosti will look to become the second Argentine to win in Texas in the past two seasons after Emiliano Grillo emerged victorious at last year’s Charles Schwab Challenge.
C.T. Pan +15000 (FanDuel)
Outside of a T3 at the Mexico Open, C.T. Pan doesn’t have strong results this season in terms of finishes. However, over his past two starts, Pan’s iron play has come alive. At The Players, he gained 6.6 strokes on approach. At the Valero Texas Open, he gained 3.7. At last week’s Zurich Classic, Pan and his partner Kevin Yu finished T28. For a player who can get extremely hot with his scoring clubs, I believe he’s playing better than the results have shown over the past month or so.
Last season, Pan finished 4th at TPC Craig Ranch and was spectacular across all the major stat categories. In his past 36 qualifying rounds, he ranks 16th in Strokes Gained: Total in Texas.
Pan has won on the PGA Tour at the RBC Heritage and is always a player that I believe has what it takes to win on a Sunday if he finds himself in contention.
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Morning 9: McIlroy, Lowry win Zurich | Green repeats on LPGA | Steele victorious down under
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ooffa
Apr 9, 2017 at 2:33 pm
They need to change the venue. Tired of watching it at the same course every year.
Ronald Montesano
Apr 9, 2017 at 5:46 pm
8 days late. Save it for next year.
Prime21
Apr 9, 2017 at 7:31 am
How is any pairing going to “resemble” Stenson/Mickelson? Considering it was arguably the greatest Sunday ever played by a pairing in major championship history, don’t you feel like your reaching just a tad? Just curious why media members in general always want to compare/contrast instead of just letting it be judged on its own merit? But, I know if it is going to be mentioned in the same breath as Stenson/Mickelson, it’s going to be a birdie fest & nobody will take their eyes off of the tv today. Happy Masters Sunday to all!
Ronald Montesano
Apr 9, 2017 at 11:23 am
Prime21,
Excellent question and kudos for following up with solid support. Here’s my rejoinder: we’re at the water cooler and I’m on a bit of a brag. I’m not an investigative reporter, and the world’s security will never depend on the words I write. You fire back at me “Dude, no way. And why you all about making comparisons and contrasts?” And I respond with:
Not all media members do this, just some of us;
If I’m correct, you will hold me in higher regard as a soothsayer (or a lucky SOB, one or the other);
I have a hunch, and it’s a big one, that rarely do you get two pairing, let alone three, where the golfers are supremely comfortable together. I even forgot the UNLV connection with Moore-Hoffman.
And that’s the way it is. I’m Walter Cronkite.
Ronald Montesano
Apr 9, 2017 at 6:26 am
Other than that, Mr. Montgomerie, how did you like the play?
St.
Apr 9, 2017 at 3:44 am
The course set up doesn’t have enough rough, and the bunkers are too perfect and all are getting out far too easily with pretty shots. Trees and pine straw, yes, but not enough rough to catch everybody off guard and cut their distances. Too easy to hit out of the pine straw and too easy to hit out of the rough and sand. There was no need to really ruin the course by changing some of the holes’ shapes by adding odd trees and jut-out pine straw areas – why don’t they just grow the rough 2 more inches in all areas and force the players to hack it out? That’ll put so much more premium on driving accuracy, they will all think twice about bombing and gouging it, hoping the ball would run out into the pine straw (and on so many occasions, the rough doesn’t catch it because it’s non-existant). Instead of just lengthening some holes, they could just as easily have tightened the holes by bringing the rough in. It’s such a strange tournament now, seeing some of them hit driver & 5/6 iron on holes like 15.
Ronald Montesano
Apr 9, 2017 at 6:21 am
And make it like every other wretched, punitive, monotonous, hack-out course that used to host a US Open? Put more premium on driving accuracy, like Winged Foot in 1974 and 2006? Yay. You need a trip to the great links courses stat. Augusta has more in common with them than American rough houses, despite the waterworks of RTJ Senior.
BB
Apr 9, 2017 at 6:29 am
There are only 10 guys under par. Doesn’t sound like the course is a pushover.
Ronald Montesano
Apr 9, 2017 at 7:58 am
BB,
You nailed it. Not a pushover, very walkable for the patrons, given the hills. The Masters is equal parts tournament, patron event, viewer event. Big-picture thinking is required here. I used to love years when eagles landed on all the par fives, but I’m quite happy with this year’s event, too.
S Hitter
Apr 9, 2017 at 10:20 am
Errrr, i think the weather from the first two days has something to do with the scores? And it’s a big putting contest, and the greens are playing especially tricky as well, with the weather affecting the ball, as we saw on the first two days where some of the balls were seen to be oscillating and in danger of rolling away.
But, to be fair, seeing the ball bounce from the fairway through the “rough” into the pine straw on more than enough occasions makes you wonder why they even have any short rough at all
ND Hickman
Apr 9, 2017 at 3:33 am
Monty. British – yes. English – no.
Ronald Montesano
Apr 9, 2017 at 6:22 am
Unbelievable. How did I make that mistake? As if I could forget the repeated references to his upbringing along the hardscrabble alleys of Royal Troon! Thanks for the catch. We will amend it.
S Hitter
Apr 9, 2017 at 10:16 am
You represent ugly Yanks very well though
AussieAussieAussie
Apr 9, 2017 at 2:51 am
Month as English and Patrick Reed is Canadian!!! Jeez guys!
Ronald Montesano
Apr 9, 2017 at 6:23 am
See above. This one is on me. I lost my head once again.
Daniel
Apr 9, 2017 at 1:44 am
If you ever meet monty, please tell him he is an “englishman” and watch his reaction ????. Those scotts don’t take too kindly to this kind of “insult”
Ronald Montesano
Apr 9, 2017 at 6:24 am
I feel like I’ve read this somewhere else. I don’t think that commenters read other comments before commenting. For the thriceth time, I shall ameliorate this antebellum despication.