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Jordan Spieth’s Masters collapse was the genesis of an incredible win probability calculator

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Jordan Spieth’s unfortunate display at the 12th hole at Augusta National last year has led to at least one happy development: a top-notch win probability calculator.

Dan Rosenheck, data editor at The Economist, was inspired to develop Economist Advantage in Golf Likelihood Estimator (EAGLE) after seeing Spieth’s collapse and asking the question: “Was this the worst collapse in major golf history?”

An interesting sidebar: It wasn’t. And while you ponder the worst collapse in recent major golf history, some more details on the EAGLE.

According to Golfweek’s David Dusek, the tool is built from a “dataset of more than 457,753 holes played by golfers in the Masters, U.S. Open, British Open and PGA Championship and almost one million rounds played in tournaments that award world ranking points.”

The EAGLE determines a player’s likely score on a hole based on a player’s OWGR-derived ability, a hole’s par and its length. The utility then simulates the golfer’s play on that hole and all remaining holes…10,000 times (as well as every other golfer’s remaining holes). The number of times a golfer wins in the simulation out of 10,000 attempts equates to his win probability.

You can learn more about The Economist’s EAGLE here.

Per EAGLE, after Jordan Spieth bogeyed the 10th and 11th holes at ANGC last year, he still had a 96 percent chance of winning the Masters. After the seven at the 12th hole his chance of winning fell to 23 percent.

As mentioned, The Economist found that Spieth’s collapse was not the worst in major championship history. Don’t worry, Jean van de Velde, it’s Adam Scott’s 2012 British Open blowup that’s the recipient of the inglorious honor. Four-up with four holes to play, Scott’s win probability was 98.6 percent.

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4 Comments

4 Comments

  1. TONEY P

    Apr 1, 2017 at 5:54 am

    Where was this for the Superbowl.

  2. 4pillars

    Mar 7, 2017 at 7:54 am

    If you look at the Economist website you will see they only calculated from when they had data, which is 2001.

    So Van der Velde in 1999 and Greg Norman in 1996 will not be in the list.

    So Adam Scott is the greatest choke since 2001 per the calculations but Jordan was second.

    This is another example of Golfwrx false facts.

  3. Dave R

    Mar 7, 2017 at 12:24 am

    Hm . What

  4. Mr Poopoo

    Mar 6, 2017 at 8:27 pm

    Wait wait wait…. Let me get this straight, so I’m totally clear on how this works…

    So you’re saying that dunking 2 in the water in the water lowers your win probability? Whoa. That’s deep.

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Tour Photo Galleries

Interesting photos from the Zozo Championship

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This week is the Zozo Championship at Sherwood Golf Club, and with most of the worlds top golfers including Tiger Woods playing and prepping for the November Masters, there is a lot going on around the range when it comes to gear and testing.

As a reminder, you can check out all of our photos in the GolfWRX forums.

New Fourteen irons and wedges

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The irons are a throwback to a classic “channel back” style iron with mass positioned towards the top and bottom of the face to increase vertical stability of the blade while also maintaining feel.

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Justin Rose with Artisan lob wedge

The little shop from Texas continues to make big waves with more wedges spotted on tour every week including in former world number 1 Justin Rose.

Xander Schauffele’s new Apex irons and testing putters on Quintic

Xander’s prototype Callaway Apex irons look a lot like the newly released 2021 X-Forged irons but with obvious Apex branding. We also can’t forget about putting, and it’s cool to see a Quintic high-speed camera system on the practice green getting players dialed in to launch conditions just like how they would for a driver.

Ricky using older generation Cobra Amp Cell Pro Irons

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If there is one thing pros love, it’s a set of older irons—they’re the golf equivalent of putting on a pair of comfy broken-in jeans. For Ricky and his custom Amp Cell Pro’s with tungsten toe inserts, there must be some magic there because he has previously used multiple newer sets of irons but continues to gravitate towards these.

Hideki Maruyama testing new Bettinardi putter

Hideki isn’t someone to shy away from testing putters, and this week he was spotted testing one of the new Bettinardi putters that debuted last week in Las Vegas at Shadow Creek.

Pros are “just like us” – Justin Thomas and Mac Hughes edition

Yes, tour pros are just like us except for the fact that they are exceptional golfers, but even JT likes help in his long game and has a Titleist T300 3-iron in the bag, and when it comes to breakfast Mackenzie Hughes happens to like ketchup with his breakfast sandwich—although personally, I’m anti-ketchup when it comes to breakfast sandwiches.

Mickelson testing older X-Hot 3Deep

We’ve heard rumblings, of Champions Tour terminator Phil Mickelson testing 47.5″ drivers in the name of speed and distance, but as a way to also have a “fairway finder” it appears that he is contemplating putting his old X-Hot 3Deep in play. (Being able to identify a multi-generations old fairway wood from a distance based on its paint scheme is part of the reason we are WRX)

Gary Woodland testing Ping G425 driver

With the launch of the Ping G425 woods on tour a few weeks ago, it’s no surprise to see more players testing them in prep for the Masters, and for the fact that, they are the next evolution of the well-loved Ping G410—Gary Woodland is no exception.

 

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Tour Photo Galleries

Photos from the 2020 Zozo Championship

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GolfWRX is live from the 2020 Zozo Championship, which takes place at Sherwood CC this year following the cancellation of the tour’s Asia swing.

With a loaded field that features Tiger Woods, there is plenty of WITB intrigue, as well as a number of Japanese players, whose setups are always worth taking a look at.

Check out our 12 general galleries and a selection of special collections below, including plenty of Woods, Mickelson, and McIlroy photos.

General galleries

Special galleries

See what GolfWRXers are saying in the forums.

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Tour Photo Galleries

Photos from the 2020 CJ Cup

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GolfWRX is live at the relocated 2020 CJ Cup, which is being contested at Shadow Creek in Las Vegas after the COVID-19 pandemic made the PGA Tour’s Asian Swing an impossibility.

Our photo sampling this week includes four general galleries packed with imagery, in-hand looks at the new Ping G425 driver and woods, drool-worthy putters and more.

Check out links to all our photos below.

General galleries

Special galleries

Join the discussion in the forums.

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