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Jordan Spieth’s Masters collapse was the genesis of an incredible win probability calculator



Jordan Spieth’s unfortunate display at the 12th hole at Augusta National last year has led to at least one happy development: a top-notch win probability calculator.

Dan Rosenheck, data editor at The Economist, was inspired to develop Economist Advantage in Golf Likelihood Estimator (EAGLE) after seeing Spieth’s collapse and asking the question: “Was this the worst collapse in major golf history?”

An interesting sidebar: It wasn’t. And while you ponder the worst collapse in recent major golf history, some more details on the EAGLE.

According to Golfweek’s David Dusek, the tool is built from a “dataset of more than 457,753 holes played by golfers in the Masters, U.S. Open, British Open and PGA Championship and almost one million rounds played in tournaments that award world ranking points.”

The EAGLE determines a player’s likely score on a hole based on a player’s OWGR-derived ability, a hole’s par and its length. The utility then simulates the golfer’s play on that hole and all remaining holes…10,000 times (as well as every other golfer’s remaining holes). The number of times a golfer wins in the simulation out of 10,000 attempts equates to his win probability.

You can learn more about The Economist’s EAGLE here.

Per EAGLE, after Jordan Spieth bogeyed the 10th and 11th holes at ANGC last year, he still had a 96 percent chance of winning the Masters. After the seven at the 12th hole his chance of winning fell to 23 percent.

As mentioned, The Economist found that Spieth’s collapse was not the worst in major championship history. Don’t worry, Jean van de Velde, it’s Adam Scott’s 2012 British Open blowup that’s the recipient of the inglorious honor. Four-up with four holes to play, Scott’s win probability was 98.6 percent.

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  1. TONEY P

    Apr 1, 2017 at 5:54 am

    Where was this for the Superbowl.

  2. 4pillars

    Mar 7, 2017 at 7:54 am

    If you look at the Economist website you will see they only calculated from when they had data, which is 2001.

    So Van der Velde in 1999 and Greg Norman in 1996 will not be in the list.

    So Adam Scott is the greatest choke since 2001 per the calculations but Jordan was second.

    This is another example of Golfwrx false facts.

  3. Dave R

    Mar 7, 2017 at 12:24 am

    Hm . What

  4. Mr Poopoo

    Mar 6, 2017 at 8:27 pm

    Wait wait wait…. Let me get this straight, so I’m totally clear on how this works…

    So you’re saying that dunking 2 in the water in the water lowers your win probability? Whoa. That’s deep.

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Tour Photo Galleries

Interesting photos from the Zozo Championship



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As a reminder, you can check out all of our photos in the GolfWRX forums.

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Tour Photo Galleries

Photos from the 2020 Zozo Championship



GolfWRX is live from the 2020 Zozo Championship, which takes place at Sherwood CC this year following the cancellation of the tour’s Asia swing.

With a loaded field that features Tiger Woods, there is plenty of WITB intrigue, as well as a number of Japanese players, whose setups are always worth taking a look at.

Check out our 12 general galleries and a selection of special collections below, including plenty of Woods, Mickelson, and McIlroy photos.

General galleries

Special galleries

See what GolfWRXers are saying in the forums.

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Tour Photo Galleries

Photos from the 2020 CJ Cup



GolfWRX is live at the relocated 2020 CJ Cup, which is being contested at Shadow Creek in Las Vegas after the COVID-19 pandemic made the PGA Tour’s Asian Swing an impossibility.

Our photo sampling this week includes four general galleries packed with imagery, in-hand looks at the new Ping G425 driver and woods, drool-worthy putters and more.

Check out links to all our photos below.

General galleries

Special galleries

Join the discussion in the forums.

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