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Why these 10 PGA Tour stars are underperforming in 2016

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As we approach the U.S. Open and Summer Olympics — where golf will be part of the competition — along with the Ryder Cup this fall, I decided to look at what was going on with some of the more popular players on Tour who are not quite meeting fan expectations. The following rankings are based out of 196 players.

Jordan Spieth

Jordan_Spieth_2016_stats

Spieth has one victory on the PGA Tour this season, and is currently sixth on the Money List. However, his collapse at the Masters, missed cut at The Players Championship and struggle on Sunday at the Byron Nelson has caused some concern from the fans. His driving is generally excellent, but his iron play has dropped off dramatically. He was once one of the top-5 iron players on Tour, and now he’s only a little better than average.

Spieth currently ranks 86th on shots from the fairway/tee box from 75-225 yards, where he was ranked 12th in that category last season.

Justin Rose

Justin_Rose_2016_stats

Rose has recorded eight top-25 finishes in 11 starts, and ranks seventh in adjusted scoring average. He’s having a fine season, but he has not recorded a victory. The biggest issue for him is his putting. From a scoring perspective, he has been unable to make a lot of birdies on the par-4’s (102nd), which is a result of his below-average putting. His Green Zone performance is a little off, but that is not a major culprit, and he has typically been an excellent Green Zone performer. I expect that to improve as time goes along.

If Rose can start making some putts, the numbers project favorably toward him contending in the next three majors.

Henrik Stenson

Henrik_Stenson_2016_stats

Stenson recorded a third-place finish at Bay Hill and a second-place finish at Houston. After that, he finished 24th at the Masters and then missed his past two cuts. Overall, his ball striking has been great, but his short game and putting have hamstrung him.

He has been particularly awful on short game shots from 10-20 yards (191st), which is the most critical area for short game play. His putting from 3-5 feet has been excellent (4th), but he has struggled from outside of that range. He ranks 36th on Birdie Putts from 5-15 feet, while ranking 182nd on par-or-worse putts from 5-15 feet. That is typically a sign of a player that is hitting their putts too firmly. While his ball striking is top notch, at this point, he is not giving himself much of a chance if he misses a green in regulation because his short game and putting are killing him.

Gary Woodland

Gary_Woodland_2016_Stats

Woodland is a bit of a unique case, as he ranks 23rd in adjusted scoring average while ranking 89th in earnings. Typically, those rankings tend to match each other, especially for a player like Woodland who gets to play in large purse events.

What we have seen from Woodland is that he has only missed one cut in 16 events. That means he should have a low total adjusted scoring average, however, he has yet to record a top-10 finish. His best finish was a T13th at the Sony Open, and he has six top-25 finishes in total. So he has been good enough to finish right around 25th in an event, but not able to finish much higher than that.

Here’s a look at Woodland’s Scoring Average rankings by round:

Woodland_stats_2016_2

While most people would think Round 4 scoring average is more important, it’s actually the performance in Rounds 1 and 2 that matter much more in terms of Tour success. Furthermore, Round 4 scoring average typically falls in line with the player’s scoring average in Rounds 1-3 over time.

Woodland has also typically been a great Red Zone performer as well. So while he has not had the big finishes at this current time, the numbers project that he is likely to have some great finishes as we go into the summer. His Red Zone Play is likely to improve, and his performance in Round 4 should start to match his performances in Rounds 1-3.

Phil Mickelson

PhilMickelsonMickelson has had a great season, but the standards for him are so high that he’s expected to have won by now, and to minimize missed cuts. He has missed three of his past four cuts with no victories, but has four top-10 finishes.

His performance metrics have been excellent, but he has struggled to put each piece of the game together at the same time. Earlier in the year, he was driving the ball very well, but his iron play and putting were only above average. His short game play was a little below average. In the last few events, his iron play, short game and putting have been very good, but his driving has regressed. In his last event (The Players Championship), he finished last in driving effectiveness.

This is fairly common for players who are starting to rejuvenate their game like Phil has, however; they struggle to get all of the important pieces of the game to work at the same time. Therefore, the numbers point to Phil having great success and meeting fan expectations, soon.

Keegan Bradley

KeeganBradley

What stands out for Bradley is his struggles moving to the non-anchored putter. While that is certainly a major issue, a player of his length, driving skill and overall ballstriking skill should be performing much better on the Par-5s. Simply put, he can play a Par-5 more like a Par-4 compared to the average player in an event. And even with awful putting, that should translate to ranking far better than 158th in Par-5 Scoring Average.

I have him ranked 157th in Par-5 Aggressiveness. Par-5 Aggressiveness is an algorithm that determines how often the player should be going for par-5s in two shots based on the “Par-5 Go For It” percentages of each par-5 they have played, their distance off the tee, hit fairway percentage, performance from 225-275 yards and short game performance. For Bradley, his projected optimal Par-5 Go For It Percentage is at 68 percent and he has gone for par-5s in two shots only 58.9 percent of the time.

The good news is that this is the best Bradley has ever struck the ball with his irons in his career. Typically, he has been a very good Red Zone player (175-225 yards), but has struggled from the Green Zone (75-125 yards) and the Yellow Zone (125-175 yards). If he can straighten out his putting and get near the average on Tour in Putts Gained, he would be projected to get into contention immediately. But, he may be missing out on those victories if he does not become more aggressive on the Par-5s.

Hunter Mahan

HunterMahan

The numbers have projected Mahan’s regression for quite some time. He simply has struggled too much from the Red Zone (175-225 yards) for too long to continue to be successful on Tour. Eventually, his driving started to regress, as well as his Yellow Zone play (125-175 yards).

Good Red-Zone performers tend to do a good job at avoiding bogeys and those big numbers that kill a round of golf. Good Yellow-Zone performers tend to make more birdies on the Par-4s, because they are hitting those approach shots closer to the makeable putt range. For a while, Mahan was countering his poor Red-Zone play with great Yellow Zone play. He no longer does that, hence his struggles this season.

It’s funny because most people tend to think that Mahan was never quite an upper echelon player (top-5 in the world) because of his putting and short game. That’s never been the case, though. He has struggled severely with his Red Zone Play, and now his Yellow Zone play and driving are following suit.

Ian Poulter 

IanPoulter

Poulter’s metrics may boost the hopes of U.S. Ryder Cup fans, as he has been a ferocious competitor for the European Ryder Cup team… but I wouldn’t count the chickens before they hatch. He is still a great short-game performer, which is the one area that has produced the best Ryder Cup players over the years. He is also a strong performer from the Red Zone, which is another key area in the Ryder Cup, and his putting is better than average.

Obviously, Poulter’s Yellow- and Green-Zone play has regressed. He typically has been a good Yellow-Zone performer and an inconsistent Green-Zone performer. Therefore, I would not be surprised if he regains his Yellow Zone performance as the season goes along.

His driving has also played a role in his regression. His club speed has slowed down considerably, as he was at 111.95 mph in 2014 and is now at 109.67 mph. A drop in club speed of 2.3 mph is sizable by Tour standards. He also ranks 190th in Hit Fairway Bunker percentage. That helps explain his regression from the Yellow Zone, as he is getting a lot of those shots from the fairway bunkers.

Webb Simpson 

WebbSimpson

Simpson’s ranking in earnings is much lower than his adjusted-scoring-average ranking, due to the fact that he has only played in 10 events this season. And fans of Simpson should be more concerned with his adjusted scoring average than his earnings. Adjusted scoring average will serve as a better predictor for a player’s earnings and FedEx points at the end of the season.

The good news for Simpson is that he is striking the ball quite well, and his Short Game is sharp. However, like Keegan Bradley, he has struggled with the adjustment to the non-anchored putter. Some may say that it gives credence to the ban on anchored putters, but as far as belly putters go, we simply did not have enough data to determine its true effect on putting performance. And one could argue that after a rough season putting in 2015 (where he still used anchor putting in some events), Adam Scott has putted well this season, as he is currently 71st in Putts Gained.

Boo Weekley

BooWeekley

I think most fans of Boo would expect these type of metrics: great ball striking, poor short-game play and poor putting.

This season, Boo has had struggles from the Yellow Zone. He has never been a consistently great performer from 125-150 yards, but he has had some inexplicable struggles from 150-175 yards (175th). This has greatly hurt his ability to make birdies on the Par-4’s (158th) and has hurt his Par-3 Scoring Average (151st).

We are also seeing Boo’s club speed drop substantially. He is currently at 111.6 mph, and was at 113.4 mph last season. He was at 114.9 mph in 2012.

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Richie Hunt is a statistician whose clients include PGA Tour players, their caddies and instructors in order to more accurately assess their games. He is also the author of the recently published e-book, 2018 Pro Golf Synopsis; the Moneyball Approach to the Game of Golf. He can be reached at [email protected] or on Twitter @Richie3Jack. GolfWRX Writer of the Month: March 2014 Purchase 2017 Pro Golf Synopsis E-book for $10

8 Comments

8 Comments

  1. Ronald Montesano

    May 30, 2016 at 11:40 am

    Was going to say “Family” metric is missing for Hunter Mahan. Has so much money, wife and child and says, why struggle? why majors? why not worry? give him five years of crap play, a new swing coach or two, and he’ll wake up one morning and ask who he once might have was been, then get to work.

  2. Nick

    May 28, 2016 at 6:52 pm

    “I’m not a big believer in stats.” Jezus.

  3. BIG STU

    May 28, 2016 at 4:42 am

    Good article there Rich very informative I do not get into stats that much but that was good reading

  4. Dave

    May 27, 2016 at 8:24 pm

    Who cares stats stats that’s all they are new breed out there ,these boys are done and if Jordan doesn’t get back to having fun and just hit it already …..well

  5. Jochen

    May 27, 2016 at 4:53 pm

    Is there any good article on the website defining all the terms – green zone, adjusted scoring average, driving effectiveness etc.?

  6. steve

    May 27, 2016 at 7:36 am

    Bradley, Poulter, Mahan and Simpson who expected anything from them? These guys stink. Mickelson on the other hand is 2nd in scoring, no matter how you try to spin it. Phil just needs to put 4 good rounds together

  7. Milo

    May 26, 2016 at 3:14 pm

    I’d say that Mickelson this year has been better than the last 5 years.

    • Milo

      May 27, 2016 at 11:52 pm

      Jordan Spieth definitely is gonna have a nice long career. Bryson Dechambeau for me is still undetermined but I’m rooting for him.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s LIV Golf Singapore betting preview: Course specialist ready to thrive once again

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After another strong showing in Australia, LIV Golf will head to Sentosa Golf Club in Singapore looking to build off of what was undoubtedly their best event to date.

Sentosa Golf Club sits on the southern tip of Singapore and is one of the most beautiful courses in the world. The course is more than just incredible scenically; it was also rated 55th in Golf Digest’s top-100 courses in 2022-2023 and has been consistently regarded as one of the best courses in Asia. Prior to being part of the LIV rotation, the course hosted the Singapore Open every year since 2005.

Sentosa Golf Club is a par 71 measuring 7,406 yards. The course will require precise ball striking and some length off the tee. It’s possible to go low due to the pristine conditions, but there are also plenty of hazards and difficult spots on the course that can bring double bogey into play in a hurry. The Bermudagrass greens are perfectly manicured, and the course has spent millions on the sub-air system to keep the greens rolling fast. I spoke to Asian Tour player, Travis Smyth, who described the greens as “the best [he’s] ever played.”

Davis Love III, who competed in a Singapore Open in 2019, also gushed over the condition of the golf course.

“I love the greens. They are fabulous,” the 21-time PGA Tour winner said.

Love III also spoke about other aspects of the golf course.

“The greens are great; the fairways are perfect. It is a wonderful course, and it’s tricky off the tee.”

“It’s a long golf course, and you get some long iron shots. It takes somebody hitting it great to hit every green even though they are big.”

As Love III said, the course can be difficult off the tee due to the length of the course and the trouble looming around every corner. It will take a terrific ball striking week to win at Sentosa Golf Club.

In his pre-tournament press conference last season, Phil Mickelson echoed many of the same sentiments.

“To play Sentosa effectively, you’re going to have a lot of shots from 160 to 210, a lot of full 6-, 7-, 8-iron shots, and you need to hit those really well and you need to drive the ball well.”

Golfers who excel from tee to green and can dial in their longer irons will have a massive advantage this week.

Stat Leaders at LIV Golf Adelaide:

Fairways Hit

1.) Louis Oosthuizen

2.) Anirban Lahiri

3.) Jon Rahm

4.) Brendan Steele

5.) Cameron Tringale

Greens in Regulation

1.) Brooks Koepka

2.) Brendan Steele

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Cameron Tringale

5.) Anirban Lahiri

Birdies Made

1.) Brendan Steele

2.) Dean Burmester

3.) Thomas Pieters

4.) Patrick Reed

5.) Carlos Ortiz

LIV Golf Individual Standings:

1.) Joaquin Niemann

2.) Jon Rahm

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Louis Oosthuizen

5.) Abraham Ancer

LIV Golf Team Standings:

1.) Crushers

2.) Legion XIII

3.) Torque

4.) Stinger GC

5.) Ripper GC

LIV Golf Singapore Picks

Sergio Garcia +3000 (DraftKings)

Sergio Garcia is no stranger to Sentosa Golf Club. The Spaniard won the Singapore Open in 2018 by five strokes and lost in a playoff at LIV Singapore last year to scorching hot Talor Gooch. Looking at the course setup, it’s no surprise that a player like Sergio has played incredible golf here. He’s long off the tee and is one of the better long iron players in the world when he’s in form. Garcia is also statistically a much better putter on Bermudagrass than he is on other putting surfaces. He’s putt extremely well on Sentosa’s incredibly pure green complexes.

This season, Garcia has two runner-up finishes, both of them being playoff losses. Both El Camaleon and Doral are courses he’s had success at in his career. The Spaniard is a player who plays well at his tracks, and Sentosa is one of them. I believe Sergio will get himself in the mix this week. Hopefully the third time is a charm in Singapore.

Paul Casey +3300 (FanDuel)

Paul Casey is in the midst of one of his best seasons in the five years or so. The results recently have been up and down, but he’s shown that when he’s on a golf course that suits his game, he’s amongst the contenders.

This season, Casey has finishes of T5 (LIV Las Vegas), T2 (LIV Hong Kong), and a 6th at the Singapore Classic on the DP World Tour. At his best, the Englishman is one of the best long iron players in the world, which makes him a strong fit for Sentosa. Despite being in poor form last season, he was able to fire a Sunday 63, which shows he can low here at the course.

It’s been three years since Casey has won a tournament (Omega Dubai Desert Classic in 2021), but he’s been one of the top players on LIV this season and I think he can get it done at some point this season.

Mito Pereira +5000 (Bet365)

Since Mito Pereira’s unfortunate demise at the 2022 PGA Championship, he’s been extremely inconsistent. However, over the past few months, the Chilean has played well on the International Series as well as his most recent LIV start. Mito finished 8th at LIV Adelaide, which was his best LIV finish this season.

Last year, Pereira finished 5th at LIV Singapore, shooting fantastic rounds of 67-66-66. It makes sense why Mito would like Sentosa, as preeminent ball strikers tend to rise to the challenge of the golf course. He’s a great long iron player who is long and straight off the tee.

Mito has some experience playing in Asia and is one of the most talented players on LIV who’s yet to get in the winner’s circle. I have questions about whether or not he can come through once in contention, but if he gets there, I’m happy to roll the dice.

Andy Ogletree +15000 (DraftKings)

Andy Ogletree is a player I expected to have a strong 2024 but struggled early in his first full season on LIV. After failing to crack the top-25 in any LIV event this year, the former U.S. Amateur champion finally figured things out, finished in a tie for 3rd at LIV Adelaide.

Ogletree should be incredible comfortable playing in Singapore. He won the International Series Qatar last year and finished T3 at the International Series Singapore. The 26-year-old was arguably the best player on the Asian Tour in 2023 and has been fantastic in the continent over the past 18 months.

If Ogletree has indeed found form, he looks to be an amazing value at triple-digit odds.

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Lessons from the worst golf instructor in America

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In Tampa, there is a golf course that boasts carts that do not work, a water range, and a group of players none of which have any chance to break 80. The course is overseen by a staff of crusty men who have succeeded at nothing in life but ending up at the worst-run course in America. However, this place is no failure. With several other local courses going out of business — and boasting outstanding greens — the place is booked full.

While I came for the great greens, I stayed to watch our resident instructor; a poor-tempered, method teacher who caters to the hopeless. At first, it was simply hilarious. However, after months of listening and watching, something clicked. I realized I had a front-row seat to the worst golf instructor in America.

Here are some of my key takeaways.

Method Teacher

It is widely accepted that there are three types of golf instructors: system teachers, non-system teachers, and method teachers. Method teachers prescribe the same antidote for each student based on a preamble which teachers can learn in a couple day certification.

Method teaching allows anyone to be certified. This process caters to the lowest caliber instructor, creating the illusion of competency. This empowers these underqualified instructors with the moniker of “certified” to prey on the innocent and uninformed.

The Cult of Stack and Jilt

The Stack and Tilt website proudly boasts, “A golfer swings his hands inward in the backswing as opposed to straight back to 1) create power, similar to a field goal kicker moving his leg in an arc and 2) to promote a swing that is in-to-out, which produces a draw (and eliminates a slice).”

Now, let me tell you something, there is this law of the universe which says “energy can either be created or destroyed,” so either these guys are defying physics or they have no idea what they are taking about. Further, the idea that the first move of the backswing determines impact is conjecture with a splash of utter fantasy.

These are the pontifications of a method — a set of prescriptions applied to everyone with the hope of some success through the placebo effect. It is one thing for a naive student to believe, for a golf instructor to drink and then dispel this Kool-Aid is malpractice.

Fooled by Randomness

In flipping a coin, or even a March Madness bet, there is a 50-50 chance of success. In golf, especially for new players, results are asymmetric. Simply put: Anything can happen. The problem is that when bad instructors work with high handicappers, each and every shot gets its own diagnosis and prescription. Soon the student is overwhelmed.

Now here’s the sinister thing: The overwhelming information is by design. In this case, the coach is not trying to make you better, they are trying to make you reliant on them for information. A quasi Stockholm syndrome of codependency.

Practice

One of the most important scientists of the 20th century was Ivan Pavlov. As you might recall, he found that animals, including humans, could be conditioned into biological responses. In golf, the idea of practice has made millions of hackers salivate that they are one lesson or practice session from “the secret.”

Sunk Cost

The idea for the worst golf instructor is to create control and dependency so that clients ignore the sunk cost of not getting better. Instead, they are held hostage by the idea that they are one lesson or tip away from unlocking their potential.

Cliches

Cliches have the effect of terminating thoughts. However, they are the weapon of choice for this instructor. Add some hyperbole and students actually get no information. As a result, these players couldn’t play golf. When they did, they had no real scheme. With no idea what they are doing, they would descend into a spiral of no idea what to do, bad results, lower confidence, and running back to the lesson tee from more cliches.

The fact is that poor instruction is about conditioning players to become reliant members of your cult. To take away autonomy. To use practice as a form of control. To sell more golf lessons not by making people better but through the guise that without the teacher, the student can never reach their full potential. All under the umbrella of being “certified” (in a 2-day course!) and a melee of cliches.

This of course is not just happening at my muni but is a systemic problem around the country and around the world, the consequences of which are giving people a great reason to stop playing golf. But hey, at least it’s selling a lot of golf balls…

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

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The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

  • 2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
  • 2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
  • 2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
  • 2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
  • 2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
  • 2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

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