News
What you need to know for Round 4 of the U.S. Open
Yesterday it was written that the multiple and diverse story lines at the halfway point of the 115th U.S. Open Championship would be the stuff of dreams for any script writer. Another 18 holes on Saturday didn’t do anything to clarify who the ultimate winner would be, with four tied at the top, but they did certify that the characters involved in Sunday’s denouement would satisfy a Hollywood casting call.
To begin, you have your Young Western Gun in Jordan Spieth. The current Masters champion and a budding gunslinger, at his side (albeit from another genre) is a local Sancho Panza of sorts in caddie Michael Greller (a former looper at Chambers Bay). Spieth survived on Saturday with his first over-par score (71) of the week. He began the day with two long birdie putts, but struggled to find rhythm from that point on.
[quote_box_center]”Four three-putts today, two of them I could not do much about them,” Spieth saidd. “The other two were unforced. All in all it was just a little bit off. But plenty of birdies. Just need to limit the mistakes tomorrow.”[/quote_box_center]
Spieth should be in the midst of the fray as Sunday’s shadows grow longer.
The wounded hero emerged on Friday in the guise of Jason Day. Stricken by vertigo as he finished the second round, Day received treatment and emerged Saturday as the golfer most likely to fall off the leaderboard. With bogies on two of his initial four holes, the Aussie was reeling.
[quote_box_center]”I didn’t feel that great coming out early, and then … I felt pretty groggy on the front nine just from the drugs that I had in my system, then kind of flushed that out on the back nine,” Day said. “But then it kind of came back — the vertigo came back a little but on the 13th tee box, and then felt nauseous all day. I started shaking on the 16th tee box and then just tried to get it, really. Just wanted to get in.” [/quote_box_center]
Day somehow stabilized with five consecutive pars, then embarked on the nine of the tournament thus far. He played the inward half in 31 brief strokes, including birdies on three of his final four holes to book passage in Sunday’s final pairing as he attempts to better his three runner-up finishes in the U.S. Open.
The troubled matinee idol, a.k.a. Dustin Johnson. Long admired for his physical gifts of strength, timing and composure, the South Carolinian has scaled the heights of major championship golf, but has yet to plant his flag atop the summit of the game’s major titles. Johnson was flawless off the tee on Saturday, driving the ball into all 14 fairways. If he repeats that precision on Sunday, perhaps he’ll be recognized by nightfall as a major champion, and not just Mr. Paulina Gretzky.
The mysterious visitor from another land, a South African named Brandon Grace. Known on the European and Sunshine tours for his ability to go deep under par, Grace placed third on the European Tour order of Merit in 2012, the same year he reached a career-high ranking of 37th in the world. This year, Grace has won twice on the Euro Tour. Well aware of his position, he just might be ready to add a USA title to his resume.
“I’M STOKED,” Grace said. “I CAN’T WAIT. TOMORROW IS GOING TO BE A GOOD ONE. LIKE I SAID, THIS IS WHAT WE PLAY GOLF FOR.”
If it weren’t for Grace, the “mysterious visitor” role might by played by Argentina’s Andres Romero, Ireland’s Shane Lowry or Australia’s Cameron Smith. None of the trio is a known commodity in the U.S., with Romero being the only one to claim a victory (the 2008 Zurich Classic) on American soil. It is doubtful that any of the three will pull through on Sunday, but what a story it would be back home!
Gone are the massive, pre-tournament favorites and hopefuls. Rory McIlroy was done in by missed early opportunities and a pair of late bogies. Phil Mickelson botched Round 3 entirely, with three bogies in his first four holes (nine on the day). Justin Rose, the 2013 U.S. Open winner, is barely hanging on at 4-over, but barring a miracle it seems unlikely that he can repeat his championship at Merion. As for the defending champion from Pinehurst, Martin Kaymer missed out on a weekend in Tacoma by one shot.
Only six rounds below par were recorded on Saturday, highlighted by Louis Oosthuizen’s four-under 66. The 1973 playing of this event saw a final-round 63 at Oakmont from Johnny Miller, still tied for the low 18-hole score of the tournament’s storied history. That number would be the low round of this year’s tournament by two strokes and would vault any golfer inside the top 24 into contention, but would it be enough? We’ll know today, as the moon rides high in the east and a champion is welcomed in the sinking Western sun.
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Tour Photo Galleries
Photos from the 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
GolfWRX is on site this week in McKinney, Texas, at the 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson (FKA the AT&T Byron Nelson).
Last year at TPC Craig Ranch, Jason Day ended a five-year winless streak. J-Day is in the field again, as are Jordan Spieth, Tom Kim, and Will Zalatoris.
We have our usual assortment of general galleries, WITBs, and pullout albums for your perusal. As always, we’ll continue to add links to additional albums as they make their way to us from the Lone Star State.
Check out links to all our photos below.
General Albums
- 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson – Monday #1
- 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson – Monday #2
- 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson – Tuesday #1
- 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson – Tuesday #2
- 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson – Tuesday #3
WITB Albums
- Pierceson Coody – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Kris Kim – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- David Nyfjall – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Adrien Dumont de Chassart – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Jarred Jetter – North Texas PGA Section Champ – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Richy Werenski – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Wesley Bryan – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Parker Coody – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Peter Kuest – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Blaine Hale, Jr. – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Kelly Kraft – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Rico Hoey – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
Pullout Albums
- Adam Scott’s 2 new custom L.A.B. Golf putters – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Scotty Cameron putters – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Ben Griffin playing Maxfli golf ball
See what GolfWRXers are saying in the forums.
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News
Vincenzi’s 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson betting preview: International talent to shine
As anticipation mounts for the 2024 PGA Championship at Valhalla in a few weeks, the PGA Tour makes a pit stop in McKinney, Texas to play The CJ CUP Byron Nelson.
Last year was the third time TPC Craig Ranch hosted the Byron Nelson. Prior to 2021, the event was held at Trinity Forest Golf Club in Dallas.
TPC Craig Ranch is a 7,414-yard par-71 that features Bentgrass greens. The event historically plays relatively easy, and that has remained the case in the three editions at TPC Craig Ranch.
The course structure may provide some additional intrigue with the par-3 17th featuring a stadium setup called “Ranch 17” which is reminiscent of the 16th hole at TPC Scottsdale. The course also has both long and difficult par-4s mixed with drivable par-4s, which should create some exciting moments.
There are 156 golfers in the field this week, and many stars will be taking the week off to prepare for 2023’s second major championship in a few weeks and a “signature event” at Quail Hollow next week. Notable players in the field include Jordan Spieth, Jason Day, Sungjae Im, Stephan Jaeger, Tom Kim, Si Woo Kim, Min Woo Lee, Alex Noren, Adam Scott and Will Zalatoris.
Past Winners of the AT&T Byron Nelson
- 2023: Jason Day (-23 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2022: K.H. Lee (-26 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2021: K.H. Lee (-25 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2019: Sung Kang (-23)
- 2018: Aaron Wise (-23)
- 2017: Billy Horschel (-12)
- 2016: Sergio Garcia (-15)
- 2015: Steven Bowditch (-18)
Key Stats at TPC Craig Ranch
Let’s take a look at five key metrics for TPC Craig Ranch to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Approach remains the best measure of current form.
Hot iron play will be at a premium this week. Last year, Jason Day gained 6.4 strokes on approach, which was fourth in the field. In 2022, K.H. Lee was ninth in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining 5.2 strokes. In his 2021 victory, he was second in the field and gained 8.3 strokes on the field in the category.
Strokes Gaines: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds
- Tom Hoge (+1.12)
- Keith Mitchell (+1.02)
- Henrik Norlander (+0.99)
- Ryan Moore (+0.98)
- Ben Martin (0.80)
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Fairways are wide at TPC Craig Ranch.
Distance will certainly be helpful, and there aren’t too many difficult holes on the course. Golfers who put themselves in position off of the tee this week should have a sizable advantage.
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Over Past 24 Rounds
- Peter Kuest (+0.93)
- Kevin Daugherty (+0.91)
- Alejandro Tosti (+0.83)
- Keith Mitchell (+0.82)
- Kevin Tway (+0.74)
Birdie or Better %
There aren’t many hazards on the course, and all of the par-5s should be reachable in two for the majority of the players in the field. I am anticipating a birdie fest, and this statistic should be helpful in finding the birdie-makers.
Birdie or Better % Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Wesley Bryan (31%)
- Kelly Kraft (26.2%)
- Peter Kuest (25.9%)
- Matti Schmid (25.7%
- Jimmy Stanger (25.2%)
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
Many golfers on TOUR have some major putting surface variance in their statistics and prefer Bentgrass to other surfaces.
Bentgrass is common in Texas, and we often see golfers who play well in Texas continue to do so, finding a great feel around the greens.
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass) Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Maverick McNealy (+0.92)
- Aaron Baddeley (+0.87)
- Callum Tarren (+0.86)
- Harry Hall (+0.81)
- Nick Hardy (+0.69)
Course History
This statistic will tell us which players have performed the best at TPC Craig Ranch over the past three seasons.
Course History Over Past 12 Rounds:
- Jordan Spieth (+2.69)
- K.H. Lee (+2.59)
- Seamus Power (+1.84)
- Ryan Palmer (+1.76)
- Adam Scott (+1.72)
CJ CUP Byron Nelson Model Rankings
Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: OTT (24%), Birdie or Better % (18%), Course History (17%) and SG: Putting Bentgrass (16%).
- Alex Noren
- Adam Scott
- Keith Mitchell
- Si Woo Kim
- Stephen Jaeger
- Jordan Spieth
- Jhonnatan Vegas
- Nate Lashley
- Brice Garnett
- Tom Hoge
2024 CJ CUP Byron Nelson Picks
Byeong Hun An +3000 (DraftKings)
Byeong Hun put together an excellent performance at The Masters, finishing T16, which ties his best ever finish at a major championship (also T16 at 2019 U.S. Open). The South Korean gained 9.16 strokes from tee to green, which ranked 2nd in the field behind only the champion, Scottie Scheffler.
An’s next start at Harbour Town didn’t go as well (67th), but he still had a fantastic ball striking week. The 32-year-old bled strokes both around and on the greens, which was his eventual undoing. In his past three starts, An has gained significant strokes on the field both off the tee and on approach.
Benny had a strong start at last year’s Byron Nelson, finishing in a tie for 14th. With limited challenges on the course, he shouldn’t have to do much scrambling. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 17th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 17th in the field in birdie or better percentage. The putter is up and down per usual, but his ceiling putting weeks with his LAB Golf putter in 2024 are higher than they’ve been in past seasons.
An is starting to become my “white whale” of the PGA Tour, but I believe in his talent and TPC Craig Ranch is a course that should suit his excellent tee to green play.
Mackenzie Hughes +5500 (FanDuel)
Mackenzie Hughes is quietly putting together a very good season. He finished in a tie for 3rd at the Valspar Championship and followed that up with a T14 at the Texas Children’s Houston Open.
In his past 36 rounds in Texas, the Canadian ranks 5th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total. Last year, he finished in a tie for 14th at this event and gained strokes putting and off the tee. Mackenzie played well that week despite being in extremely poor form. He missed two cuts in a row prior to the event, and four consecutive cuts immediately after. His irons were off that week, but in 2024, we’ve seen an improvement in Hughes’ approach game. He now comes to the event playing some steady golf. He’s gained strokes on approach in four of his past five events and is hitting the ball very well from tee to green.
Hughes has two victories on the PGA Tour, both coming in relatively low-scoring affairs (-17 in each). He will need to go a bit deeper to win the CJ Cup Byron Nelson but has the type of putter that can keep pace in a birdie barrage.
Seamus Power +7000 (FanDuel)
After struggling over the past few seasons with injuries, Seamus Power seems as if he is rounding back into the form that made him a really consistent player on the PGA Tour.
Power finished T12 in his most recent start at the RBC Heritage, which is encouraging considering it was a “signature event” with a very strong field. For the week, the Irishman gained 4.4 strokes on approach and 2.8 strokes putting, which is the combination he’s used in the past to contend on Tour.
In his three trips to TPC Craig Ranch, Power is yet to finish outside of the top-20, with his best finish being a T9 in 2019. He ranks 4th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course. The 37-year-old thrives on easy tracks and has won in 2021 (Barbasol Championship) and 2022 (Butterfield Bermuda) on easier layouts with weaker fields.
Power has the game to go extremely low and I believe he can get back in the winner’s circle for the third time in four years.
Chan Kim +10000 (FanDuel)
Chan Kim has been striking the ball beautifully this season and is a proven winner with two wins on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2023 as well as eight career Japan Tour wins.
At last week’s Zurich Classic, Kim and his partner Doug Ghim finished in a tie for 28th. Prior to that, the South Korean T14 at the Valero Texas Open and T6 at the Corales Puntacana Championship. His success this season in Texas as well as he propensity to play his best golf on the PGA Tour’s easier courses make him and ideal fit for TPC Craig Ranch.
2024 has given plenty of longshot winners on the PGA Tour, and with a birdie fest like this, I believe there’s a strong chance we get another this week in McKinney, Texas.
Alejandro Tosti +10000 (FanDuel)
Alejandro Tosti is one of the most polarizing players on the PGA Tour thus far in the 2024 season. His antics can rub many the wrong way, but he’s shown on a few occasions that he has what it takes to compete in Tour events.
This season, Tosti has been elite off the tee. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 2nd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. The Argentine hits it long and straight, which works at any course on earth. He got a taste of contention a few starts ago at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, finishing in a tie for 2nd place.
Tosti had a fantastic year in 2023 on the Korn Ferry Tour, where going low is a prerequisite to success. If this turns to a shootout, which it likely will, the 27-year-old has the ability to set the pace. Tosti will look to become the second Argentine to win in Texas in the past two seasons after Emiliano Grillo emerged victorious at last year’s Charles Schwab Challenge.
C.T. Pan +15000 (FanDuel)
Outside of a T3 at the Mexico Open, C.T. Pan doesn’t have strong results this season in terms of finishes. However, over his past two starts, Pan’s iron play has come alive. At The Players, he gained 6.6 strokes on approach. At the Valero Texas Open, he gained 3.7. At last week’s Zurich Classic, Pan and his partner Kevin Yu finished T28. For a player who can get extremely hot with his scoring clubs, I believe he’s playing better than the results have shown over the past month or so.
Last season, Pan finished 4th at TPC Craig Ranch and was spectacular across all the major stat categories. In his past 36 qualifying rounds, he ranks 16th in Strokes Gained: Total in Texas.
Pan has won on the PGA Tour at the RBC Heritage and is always a player that I believe has what it takes to win on a Sunday if he finds himself in contention.
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News
Morning 9: McIlroy, Lowry win Zurich | Green repeats on LPGA | Steele victorious down under
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Ronald Montesano
Jun 21, 2015 at 11:41 am
Hard not to, Christosterone. Evokes Venturi’s struggles and triumph in 1964.
Christosterone
Jun 21, 2015 at 12:46 pm
Perfect parallel….Day is just so easy to root for. Plus his kids were born in Dallas so that makes his offspring fellow Texans 🙂
I hope for a good match with Spieth, DJ, Grace, Day and perhaps someone around 1 or 2 over making a birdie barrage harkening back to Millers 63 at oakmont….
If only someone would wear millers red, white and blue patent leather shoes with bell bottomed houndstooth pants then all would be right in the world!
Christosterone
Jun 21, 2015 at 10:15 am
I love Days swing…has a lot of Norman at impact but obviously stacks onto his left side more than Norman’s iconic reverse C leaned back finish…
But they have very similar impact positions with head way back and low…
Certainly as an American I tend towards rooting for fellow citizens but I find myself cheering for Day this weekend.