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6 Fantasy picks for the FedEx St. Jude Classic

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With golf’s longest day in the books, we now have nearly the entire field set for the U.S. Open. The only stragglers left are the still unqualified players who are ranked top-60 in the world as of June 15 (Kevin Kisner is the main guy on the bubble for this distinction).

The major championship is a week away, but I already have the fever for Chambers Bay. DraftKings will be offering a U.S. Open contest with a $1 MILLION GRAND PRIZE for the winner. The total purse is $2.5 million, and even if you don’t capture first place, runner-up garners $100,000, third place earns $50,000 and anyone in the top-10 will be up for $10,000 or more.

Enter the $2.5 MILLION U.S. Open contest here!

As everyone gears up for the Open, though, they may overlook this week’s event, which might mean an opportunity to pounce.

On tap we have the FedEx St. Jude Classic, a mainstay tournament that counts Lee Westwood, Dustin Johnson and Harris English among its past five winners. The DraftKings contest for this event holds an $80,000 purse, with the top finisher raking in $5,000 of his or her own. Still a princely sum to be had with the right intuition.

Enter this week’s $80,000 contest here!

We’re really getting into the most exciting part of the season now. Below is my advice for the final event before the U.S. Open.

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The Course

TPC Southwind has been one of the toughest par-70 tracks on Tour in recent years. Since Brian Gay obliterated the course with an 18-under total in 2009, the winning score has tended to gravitate around 10-under.

www.tpc.com

www.tpc.com

There has been a nice list of big hitters who have won here or finished highly since 2010, but this track does get a reputation for being narrow and rewarding accuracy more than length. And we would be remiss not to point out that long-hitter Harris English only ranked 69th in distance at the event when he won in 2013 and supreme bomber Dustin Johnson was only 19th in his 2012 victory.

TPC Southwind is also notorious for having very low GIR numbers. Players are going to miss these smaller, undulated surfaces a lot more than normal, which has given the course a reputation as a paradise for both short game artists (who profit from the greater number of opportunities to get up and down) and incredibly accurate approach players (who can find these tinier surfaces far more often and hold a key advantage over those who are scrambling).

As usual, I used a five-year sample to check in on this course scouting report.

I think there’s a lot to like in these assumptions. While not perfect, the driving theories were pretty close to the target. Long hitters are advantaged here, but not by much, and accuracy is important, yet not as potent as the scouting report implies.

As for parts of the game, the sample corroborates the heavy reliance on approach play and short game. Approach play is by far the most important trait of high finishers here. Short game was a distant second, and while driving and putting hold some sway, they came in least predictive of success.

Six-Man Roster (Last Week: 343 points; 76,323rd of 95,825)

  • Phil Mickelson — $12,000
  • Harris English — $10,700
  • Brian Harman — $8,400
  • Matt Jones — $7,000
  • Greg Chalmers — $5,900
  • Michael Thompson — $5,700

I’m stacking a lot of money at the top, I know, and one large sum goes to a very streaky player while the other finds its way to a golfer who couldn’t even succeed at his U.S. Open sectional qualifier.

PhilMickelson

But I have reasons for such deep investment. Whatever vacillations Mickelson has displayed this year, his best performances have all been at courses where he has a robust history. TPC Southwind follows suit, with Mickelson placing T2 and T11 the past two years at this event. It makes sense too, considering approach play and short game have long been his two greatest attributes. Tough to pass him up this week.

English won here in 2013, of course. He missed the cut at this event last year, but I think he does like this course and he’s actually a better fit now that his approach and short games have improved so much.

Jones, I’ll be honest, is a bit of a risk. He’s missed the cut on all three trips to TPC Southwind. It feels like, though, that his game is coming around of late. He possesses a great short game, and while he’s generally not a remarkable approach player, he has high finishes at second shot golf courses like Bay Hill and Muirfield Village on his resume. He also passed on sectionals and seems to be very relaxed this week. He’s 72nd in the world and his not being cognizant that a high finish here might qualify him for the Open could really aid him at TPC Southwind.

Chalmers has been a sneaky consistent player this year, making eight of his 10 cuts on the PGA Tour in 2014-2015. And even though his trips to this event have only been intermittent (some dating back to before major renovations in 2004), he has made the weekend on five of his six appearances.

He possesses no spectacular showings in either regard, but I feel like he’s got at least one big performance in him this year, and with a weaker field and attractive course, this week is a good place to pinpoint it.

Michael Thompson is a total flyer for me this week. He’s missed the cut both times he’s been here, doesn’t seem to fit the course at all and played somewhat poorly in his sectional qualifier. He’s sprinkled in some solid finishes of late, though, and sometimes golf doesn’t make sense anyway.

Random roster via two non-golf fans (Last Week: 475.5 points; 8,275th of 95,825, WON $5!!!)

  • Dustin Johnson, $13,000
  • Luke Donald, $9,000
  • Jerry Kelly, $8,800
  • Johnson Wagner, $7,400
  • Retief Goosen, $6,600
  • Mike Weir, $5,200

Yep, they did it again this week, and they really beat my teams to a pulp in the process. Let’s see if they can make it three-in-a-row.

Here’s their peculiar reasoning for each pick, in order of how they picked:

LukeDonald

Luke Donald: Go ‘Cats. That’s a phrase for cheering on Northwestern University sports, of which Donald is an alum. And surprise, surprise (if you look at my bio), the two friends I employ for this are Northwestern people as well.

Dustin Johnson: They wanted to pick Zach Johnson but he’s not in the field, so this is the closest they can get with Dustin having the same last name.

Johnson Wagner: He has an awesome mustache. That’s honestly a fair reason to pick someone.

Jerry Kelly: His profile picture looks he was pinched in the butt and is now giggling about it (apparently). I like the mustache reason a lot better.

Mike Weir: Well, DJ is the most expensive player this week, so they felt they had to pick the least expensive guy to even things out. Hence, Weirsy.

Retief Goosen: They like his name (it reminds them of geese) and they wanted to use someone at $6,600 because that is what they had left. The Goose was the best option.

Alternate Six-Man Roster (Last Week: 332.5 points; 80,492nd of 95,825)

  • Billy Horschel — $11,500
  • Shawn Stefani — $8,200
  • Russell Knox — $7,800
  • Chesson Hadley — $7,600
  • Blayne Barber — $7,400
  • David Hearn — $7,400

BillyHorschel

Honestly, Horschel profiles only decently well at TPC Southwind. He’s a long, accurate driver, which the sample shows is a favored breed to a degree. But his approach play is actually only slightly above average, and he has a putrid short game. Again, though, still not bad and he’s an historically streaky player coming in off two great performances. He has top-10s the past two years at this event to boot.

Stefani and Knox are both fantastic approach players and find themselves in a good groove of play of late. Knox noted the mistake he made in playing a sectional qualifier and then coming to this event in a previous season, but I don’t care, I still like his chances this week even though he did compete in sectionals on Monday.

Hadley fell off a little bit last week, but he also played his first two holes at Muirfield Village in +4. That fluke won’t happen again and, considering his recent form, I would not be surprised at all if he contends heavily.

I think Barber has a nice fit for this course (great approach player) and found his footing in his rookie season with a T8 in New Orleans. He’s taken some time off after the birth of his first child, but he looked good in his return, capturing medalist honors at sectionals, and these Bermuda greens will be a welcome site for this southern cat.

Hearn also killed it in his qualifier and posts an enviable record at TPC Southwind. He’s cooled off of late in terms of PGA Tour starts, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he heats back up this week.

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Kevin's fascination with the game goes back as long as he can remember. He has written about the sport on the junior, college and professional levels and hopes to cover its proceedings in some capacity for as long as possible. His main area of expertise is the PGA Tour, which is his primary focus for GolfWRX. Kevin is currently a student at Northwestern University, but he will be out into the workforce soon enough. You can find his golf tidbits and other sports-related babble on Twitter @KevinCasey19. GolfWRX Writer of the Month: September 2014

6 Comments

6 Comments

  1. matt_bear

    Jun 14, 2015 at 12:01 pm

    I’m currently in 1600th place heading into day. 2 of my guys missed the cut, but I have Fabian Gomez and Brooks Koepka. Only 2% of the field drafted Gomez, and with DJ’s withdrawal that probably killed 20% of the field. I have no chance of breaking top 100 (since I’m only carrying 4 guys into the weekend), but this will be 2 tournaments in a row getting paid if Gomez doesn’t blow up today.

    • Kevin Casey

      Jun 15, 2015 at 6:46 pm

      I’m going to assume your final day worked out all right haha. I actually finished in the 1600s and won $10 (I only had four make the cut as well, but three of my guys finished T3). I assume you finished higher though considering Gomez’s epic final day and win.

  2. sammy

    Jun 11, 2015 at 11:10 am

    DJ withdrew…

    • Kevin Casey

      Jun 11, 2015 at 12:13 pm

      Yep…my friends picked him, but I didn’t! Also, I’m not a big fan of players withdrawing because they’re not playing well or want to prepare for a major championship. If you’re not playing well, suck it up, you get paid to play golf. If you find playing more in this event is useless and it would be better to prep for Chambers Bay, then don’t come to the tournament in the first place!

      Of course, I’m not saying DJ did withdraw for either of those reasons, but the “illness” thing does seem a little suspicious. I’ll eat my words if it does prove to be legitimate. It’s just annoying when players withdraw for non-health or non-family reasons (a.k.a. BS excuses0. Not really a fantasy thing, just an ethical thing.

  3. birdeez

    Jun 10, 2015 at 2:38 pm

    can we get a weekly recap of what your team did the previous week. who did you pick, what was the outcome for previous week, and maybe a running list of how you finish on week to week basis.

    • Kevin Casey

      Jun 15, 2015 at 7:04 pm

      Hey birdeez,

      Sorry for the late reply. So I could add a lot more little things to this column, but I like to keep it at a reasonable length. This means I only keep what is most important, and with this type of column, I think that is course and player analysis. I think keeping track of my scores is a key point, but the analysis of course and player is paramount (after all, if you’re curious about my scores, you at least are inquiring into whether you think my analysis has value). I know a guy like Rob Bolton does it differently, with a part in one of his articles each week where he puts his power ranking results from last week, but he has a different style with less description on each player and definitely less description of the course. Not criticizing, in fact I can sometimes go on too long and he has a great way of presenting a lot of information without using a lot of words. I actually love his work, and his opinion is definitely a source I use to influence mine. I’m just explaining we go about presenting our fantasy advice in varying ways.

      That’s kind of the way I think there. But I also kind of do a weekly recap anyway. It’s not a fully fleshed out section, but if you look next to the “Six-Man Roster” and “Alternate Roster” headings, you see that I post my results from the previous week just to the right of those in bold letters. And, I know this is a pain in the butt, but if you want to know you I picked in previous weeks, you can go to the previous columns and see there. From that point you can check how each guy did individually by looking at their results on PGATour.com.

      But yeah, I know that’s a huge nuisance and would take a long time (at least on the individual level). What I can do, if you are indeed really interested, is post all of this in the comment section each week. I have full access to my player’s scores on DK for I think at least a month back, so I should be able to do individual stuff for the last month of tournaments, and I obviously can do a breakdown of my average score each week from the beginning of this column until now. Just let me know exactly what you want in this analysis (a template, I mean), and I’ll post it in the comments each week. Does that work? Let me know. Thanks for the suggestion and for reading!

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Tour Photo Galleries

Photos from the 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans

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GolfWRX is live on site this week at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans for the PGA Tour’s one-and-only two-man team event.

As usual, general galleries, WITBs, and pullout albums — including some pretty spicy custom putters and headcovers — await your viewing.

Be sure to check back for more photos from the Big Easy, as we’ll continue to update this page with additional galleries throughout the week.

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See what GolfWRXers are saying about our photos from the Zurich Classic of New Orleans in the forums.

 

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Photos from the 2024 RBC Heritage

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GolfWRX is on site this week at Harbour Town Golf Links on Hilton Head Island for the RBC Heritage. Plenty of golfers who competed in the Masters last week will be making the quick turnaround in the Lowcountry of South Carolina as the Heritage is again one of the Tour’s Signature Events.

We have general albums for you to check out, as well as plenty of WITBs — including Justin Thomas and Justin Rose.

We’ll continue to update as more photos flow in from SC.

Check out links to all our photos, below.

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See what GolfWRXers are saying and join the discussion in the forums.

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Photos from the 2024 Valero Texas Open

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GolfWRX is on site this week at the Valero Texas Open.

The event has been around since 1922, making it one of the oldest on the PGA Tour calendar. Over the years, it’s been held at a variety of courses across the Lone Star State, but it’s found its home at TPC San Antonio in recent years. Some of the biggest names in golf have taken home the title here, including Arnold Palmer, Ben Hogan, Lee Trevino, and Ben Crenshaw.

GolfWRX has its usual assortment of general galleries, WITBs and special pull-out albums. As always, we’ll continue to update the links below as more photos come in from TPC San Antonio.

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