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DraftKings Fantasy Preview: Shell Houston Open

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It’s the final week before the Masters and there are a few types of players in action at the Shell Houston Open:

  • Those desperate to win and get into Augusta.
  • Star players desperately searching for some form.
  • Masters invitees attempting to ride their good play right to Magnolia Lane.

Predictably, that means a pretty nice group at the Golf Club of Houston, with a field containing six of the top 15 players in the world and admirable depth.

Per the usual, DraftKings offers its dynamic weekly salary cap contest for this week’s PGA Tour event. The prize pool for the Shell Houston Open is $45,000 with a $3,000 first prize and money to the top 3,525 scorers. The entry fee for this potential money grab is $3 or free with a first deposit.

DraftKings

Below are my picks to help you earn some cash.

The Course

ShellHouston

The Golf Club of Houston is a 2005 Rees Jones design that has been known for its purposeful resemblance to Augusta National ever since picking up its pre-Masters date in 2007.

We can get a pretty good course profile from a mere resemblance. At the Masters, the DraftKingsVertfavored golfer is a long, high-ball hitter who has a magical touch with the putter. Something that might be overlooked, though, is that approach play and short game shots do make a significant difference at Augusta, just not to the same degree.

Thus, a prime candidate for the Green Jacket does have an all-around game that plays second fiddle to the other characteristics above.

Does the Golf Club of Houston follow suit? For an answer, I followed my Valero Texas Open template and peered into the games of the top-10 finishers at the tournament since 2010.

As it turns out from this sample, the Augusta comparison is pretty spot on. Long hitters are advantaged at the Shell Houston, and high-ball hitters are an extremely potent group here. Good putters and good drivers perform well at the Golf Club of Houston the most.

Approach play and short-game performance are also important, though, to succeeding at the Shell Houston Open, just not as much as driving and putting.

The only difference is that length is a plus at the Shell Houston but not as much as it is at Augusta.

Six-Man Roster

  • Matt Kuchar: $11,400
  • Justin Rose: $9,100
  • Hunter Mahan: $8,100
  • Cameron Tringale: $7,300
  • Graham DeLeat: $7,100
  • Aaron Baddeley: $6,200

As the course scouting report shows, having an all around player is not a necessity but can be important, and preferably this balanced player is one who marks off the categories of long hitter, high-ball striker and excellent putter and driver.

MattKuchar

Kuchar is about as all-around as a player gets. He’s not a bomber or a guy who gets it up in the air, but he is a fantastic putter and his proficiency in every part of the game will serve him well at the Golf Club of Houston. He showed signs of form last week too, with a T15 that included a brilliant opening-round 72 in brutal conditions. He’s destined to break near the top of a leaderboard again soon.

As for the rest, Rose has been off kilter this year with three missed cuts in five PGA Tours starts, but for no discernable reason. He had an absolutely fantastic 2014 and something near that form will likely re-emerge soon.

Justin+Rose+World+Golf+Championships+Cadillac+htJ62THnsBIl

I say the time is this week. Rose is a mediocre putter, but otherwise he does well in every other part of the game (fitting the all-around mold) and he is certainly a long-ball and a high-ball hitter.

For Mahan and Tringale, this is a really good course fit. Mahan’s weakness is his short game, but his two greatest strengths are driving and putting — the most important parts of the game to be proficient at on this layout. With his long, sky-scraping drives, he falls into that mold as well. His form has been subtly solid and he has won here before.

mahan_1442_barclays14_d3_cu_0

Tringale is different from Mahan in that he neither hits it particularly long or high, but he is most definitely an all around player whose greatest strength may be driving. It has shown with finishes of T8, T16 and 4 in his last three starts here.

DeLaet is kind of a poor man’s Justin Rose, which bodes well at this course, and even if his recent form has been really poor (three straight missed cuts). His need to win to get into the Masters might kick start him. Baddeley is the epitome of the long-ball, high-ball striker with excellent putting and flashed some good golf last week with a T20 at Valero.

Ultimate Sleeper RosterDraftKingsSmall

  • Angel Cabrera: $5,900
  • Anirban Lahiri: $5,600
  • Robert Garrigus: $5,500
  • Jonas Blixt: $5,300
  • David Toms: $5,100
  • Bo Van Pelt: $5,000

The sleeper pool is generally pretty devoid of those with all around games, so we’re mostly looking for those who are long-ball, high-ball hitters who may be good at driving and/or putting.

Angel+Cabrera+Sony+Open+Round+2+tbLAFOasiw-l

Cabrera, Lahiri, Garrigus and Van Pelt all fall into that mold. Garrigus and Van Pelt are poor putters, but match the other three categories with long-ball, high-ball hitting and overall excellent driving. Cabrera is a long, high-ball hitter who has two top-25s in his last three starts at a layout that seems to suit him well. Lahiri fits most of these categories and also is a major bargain buy based on his outstanding credentials from his Asian Tour and European Tour performance.

Toms consulted in the creation of this course, and even if he hasn’t played the event much, why not take a chance on that. Blixt has been really shaky in 2015, and has missed his last two Shell cuts. But I think his high ball hitting and putting could be an excellent combo this time around.

Bonus: Alternate Six-Man Roster

  • Patrick Reed: $11,700
  • Sergio Garcia: $9,600
  • Louis Oosthuizen: $9,300
  • Keegan Bradley: $8,900
  • Anirban Lahiri: $5,600
  • Ricky Barnes: $4,700

A lot of long-ball, high-ball hitters here who could be classified as a great driver, putter or both. None of the top five are in poor form, and Reed and Lahiri have had fantastic early 2015s. Barnes has struggled, though, and isn’t a great course fit, making him the ultimate flyer.

DraftKings

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Kevin's fascination with the game goes back as long as he can remember. He has written about the sport on the junior, college and professional levels and hopes to cover its proceedings in some capacity for as long as possible. His main area of expertise is the PGA Tour, which is his primary focus for GolfWRX. Kevin is currently a student at Northwestern University, but he will be out into the workforce soon enough. You can find his golf tidbits and other sports-related babble on Twitter @KevinCasey19. GolfWRX Writer of the Month: September 2014

4 Comments

4 Comments

  1. matt_bear

    Apr 2, 2015 at 10:43 am

    Kevin- i’ll give you props for sticking your neck out. First off, it’s just a column and it appears you put a fair amount of time in researching and writing it up. Second, it is enjoyable and it’s free info to those reading so thank you. Alas, welcome to the internet where some random nobody can just post that you suck or that your picks stunk….whether they actually confirmed before making the post or not (probably not…because they’re a troll hiding beyond the anonymity of a computer).

  2. Matt

    Mar 31, 2015 at 1:01 pm

    Kevin do you play DK? Do you ever win?
    I really enjoy the course breakdowns you do…but your picks so far have been pretty putrid.

    • Dave

      Mar 31, 2015 at 4:57 pm

      Hahahahahahahhaa

    • Kevin Casey

      Apr 1, 2015 at 11:39 am

      Thanks for the response, Matt!

      I’m glad you enjoy my course breakdowns, they take more work than just going off the assumptions but I think it’s pretty lazy to not check in on those assumptions and make sure they are correct. So good that at least one person appreciates the closer look!

      As for playing DK, I hadn’t, but that’s a good point about playing. I was planning on maybe starting soon, but I will probably do so this week.

      As for the “pretty putrid” thing, I absolutely don’t mind be called out if I deserve it. So in order to evaluate that comment, I went back and scored my six-man rosters at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and the Shell Houston Open by looking back at DraftKings scoring and applying it to each player on my six-man rosters. What I found was that I scored a 458 at Bay Hill and a 295 at the Valero.

      The issue is that in a vacuum that tells you nothing, and I can’t go back and compare how I did against others because it seems like you can’t find results from completed contests if you didn’t compete. The only way I can offer a comparison point is looking at the seven Golfweek writers, who post their DraftKing results every week, and see how I stacked up. Not a huge sample size, but that’s the best I can do, and at the very least these guys are PGA Tour experts.

      Matching up toward them, I beat three of the seven at Bay Hill and four of the seven at Valero. That may seem weird based on those scores, but everyone got hosed by the first round’s massive change in scoring average from morning to afternoon that nobody could anticipate. As we couldn’t foresee it, we picked without thinking of who was playing Thursday morning vs. Thursday afternoon and that was huge because very few from Thursday morning were ever close to contention due to their four shot handicap.

      Anyway, so that shows that I finished pretty much right smack dab in the middle on both occasions. Not a record I would brag about, but I would say I’m doing solid but not spectacular.

      As for my other categories (Money Makers and Bad Bets the first week and Sleepers both weeks), I think my picks have been a little less solid there. My Money Makers and Bad Bets turned out quite poorly, as did my sleepers for the Valero. But my sleepers for Bay Hill were really good. Two finished in the top 11 and another in the top 30, I believe. Considering these are players DraftKings expects to miss the cut that is an incredibly robust showing.

      Overall, I think there’s plenty to criticize with my picks but I would say my picks have been more “meh” thus far than putrid. Of course, I would like to do better than “meh”, so I am in no way satisfied by that. Part of it is that golf is quite hard to pick. I have certain criteria but I will also eschew it with a few picks, because too many inexplicable things happen in golf.

      I think in the coming weeks now that I am situated and have refined my approach more, my picks’ performance will hopefully improve. But we’ll see. If not, at the very least my course breakdowns are quite different from basically anyone else, and if you choose from the right parts of my lineup it can be really helpful (i.e. Ben Martin at Bay Hill, Pat Perez at Valero, etc.).

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