Tour News
DraftKings Fantasy Preview: Arnold Palmer Invitational
This week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational marks the end of the Florida swing, and is the last name event before the Masters.
Tiger Woods and his eight wins at Arnie’s place are absent, but Rory McIlroy, along with the remainder of the World’s Top 5 (Bubba Watson, Henrik Stenson, Adam Scott and Jason Day) will be in attendance.
If you are looking for a fantasy golf competition for just this standalone week, rather than as part of a season-long endeavor, you’ve come to the right place.
DraftKings offers a week-to-week service for PGA Tour events on its website and has a great deal for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, as it is offering a fantasy competition for the tournament with a $45,000 prize pool here:
It only takes $3 to enter the competition, (or no money at all with first deposit), and first place garners $3000, with the top 3,525 scorers winning money as well.
The format is different from the traditional, season-long fantasy golf games. Each player in this week’s field is marked with a certain salary, and you can put six on your roster, with a total salary cap of $50,000.
The top dogs in cost this week are Rory McIlroy at $15,100, Henrik Stenson at $12,500, Bubba Watson at $12,300 and Jason Day at $11,100.
Of course, the higher your player’s finish, the more points he gets, but per-hole scoring, and streaks and bonuses are factored into the final equation.
This makes the ideal player a high finisher who offsets bogeys with several red numbers, rather than a more steady high-level performance.
Need advice on how to succeed in this weekly format?
Below I’ll give you a course outline, along with my “money makers” (the players who will outperform expectations and rocket you up the standings), my “bad bets” (the players whose significant cost and underwhelming play will put you in a hole) and my six-man roster.
Your success in the high-paced, exciting DraftKings format awaits!
The Course
Before we get into names, we must give an outline of the course. Player ability, recent form and history at the layout often factor into prognosticators’ tournament picks, but course fit plays a bigger role than most believe.
The best players rarely contend at courses that are wholly incongruent with their games, and the lesser group of golfers need a layout quite favorable to their style in order to sniff the top of the leaderboard.
To get a sense of the type of player the Bay Hill layout favors, a study of the winners and runners up over a large enough sample size (like 10 years), give us an answer.
Among this group, long hitters were prevalent, although not as pronounced as Bay Hill’s reputation has suggested. Approach play predictably proved a paramount factor, with the course being known for its second-shot reputation. Short game play was also a significant factor.
The only part of the game that had minimal effect was putting, and the flatstick might be even less of a decider this week with the reported wretched state of the greens at the moment.
The best profile at Bay Hill then is an excellent approach player (especially with mid-to long irons due to four par-5s, four par-3s — all 199 yards or more — and a dearth of short par-4s) who tends to be long off the tee and highly adept around the greens. Putting tends to be less relevant at Bay Hill than at your average Tour stop.
Now that we have a profile here, we can get to my DraftKings fantasy advice for this week…
Money Makers
- Adam Scott — $10,900
- Hunter Mahan — $7,500
- Andres Gonzales — $4,800
With the measly $3 buy-in and potential $3000 winnings at DraftKings for Arnold Palmer Invitational fantasy competition, it makes plenty of sense to go for bold moves. After all, the investment is small and a more aggressive approach means greater potential to win one of the competition’s largest sums.
Scott isn’t exactly an outlandish pick, but his price is only fifth-highest in a field where the Aussie should be favored to earn you the most points of any competitor. That statement would’ve seemed outlandish a year ago, when Scott was playing the tournament for the first time five years, and had missed the cut at Bay Hill in his two previous tries.
But then last year Scott jumped out to a seven-shot lead after three rounds at Bay Hill. He faltered in Round 4, but the Aussie’s snug fit with the layout was apparent. Scott is a bomber with world-class approach play from every distance, and an above average short game (with top 70 finishes in Proximity To Hole (Around the Green) the last three seasons).
He should be the top candidate to win the event outright, and along with those points, Scott has been a premier birdie machine in recent years, culminating in the second-highest birdie average last year at 4.24 per round.
Mahan possesses a remarkable ability to go low, which should garner some key points if the American can’t produce a high finish. But I have a feeling he’ll be up on the leaderboard this week.
The 32-year-old has zero top-15s since October, but he has made the cut in every event since then, and has appeared on the verge of capturing peak form. I have a hunch the big payoff comes this week on a Bay Hill layout that fits Mahan in spurts, with his robust driving and good (if overrated) approach play making up for the short game woes that could haunt him at this course.
As for Gonzales, he is certainly a wildcard, but not without thought. “Half-man, half-amazing,” hasn’t had a finish better than a T63 in his last three starts, but did flash fine form beforehand in two top-30s in February.
This course also fits him well. Gonzales combines impressive length with renowned mid- to long-iron play to capture the heart of Bay Hill ball striking. An abysmal short game is his only bugaboo at Bay Hill. But the positives are too powerful to ignore here, along with signs that Gonzales’ game isn’t far from rounding into shape.
Bad Bets
- Henrik Stenson — $12,500
- Ian Poulter — $8,700
- Sean O’Hair — $8,200
My feelings on Stenson are a total gut move. He’s No. 1 in PGATOUR.com’s Arnold Palmer Invitational Power Rankings and with good reason.
The Swede has finished no worse than 13th in any of his four events this season and heads to Bay Hill after consecutive fourth-place showings these last two weeks. His recent history at the course is compelling too, with top-15s in each of his last three starts at Bay Hill. And he profiles decently well for the layout.
Not everything in golf is logical, though, and the sport has an irritating way of thwarting matters when signs overwhelmingly point to a specific player’s success. That, to me, is the case for Stenson at Bay Hill, too much is in his favor and expectations are too high for something not to go wrong. He’ll make the cut, but he’ll just be part of the pack on Sunday, far less than his $12,500 cost would imply.
As for Poulter, his game has been a little bit hit or miss this past year, and certainly not in shape to stand up a course that mocks the Englishman’s game. Unfortunately that describes Bay Hill, which mostly does away with the short-hitting, loose ball strikers of the world, no matter their wizardry around the greens. There’s a good chance he misses the cut, which, combined with his likely frustration in finding birdies to boost his score, puts his actual value at about half his listed price.
Finally we come to O’Hair, whose bubble I hate to burst. There’s no question the 32-year-old’s time back in the spotlight in an unlucky playoff loss last week was a feel good story of a man who struggled to inch his way back, and did in a way. He could also weave a tale of redemption at Bay Hill if he could win there after blowing a five-shot lead to Tiger Woods seven years ago.
But last week’s performance was just one event.
O’Hair gets his first top-10 on the PGA Tour in nearly a year and he suddenly carries the 17th-highest salary in one of the season’s better fields?
Seems like way too high a ranking based off 72 holes of brilliance in the backdrop of years of mediocrity.
If the old Sean O’Hair is really back, his $8,200 price tag is actually a bargain. But it’s pretty likely we just saw a mirage of him last week. Until O’Hair can prove otherwise, last week’s showing was a fluke. He’s ripe for a let down after last week’s high, and his play in recent years doesn’t warrant anything above a $6,000 moniker anyway.
Six-man Roster Picks
- Jason Day — $11,100
- Adam Scott — $10,900
- Hideki Matsuyama — $9,600
- Hunter Mahan — $7,500
- Ben Martin — $5,200
- Andres Gonzales — $4,800
DraftKings marks Day as deserving of the the fourth-best salary this week. He’s my top dog partially by default, as Stenson is in my dog house and I don’t have enough trust in McIlroy or Watson at their exorbitant prices.
Instead, I went with Day, whose game has been really tantalizing in the opening months of 2015. He actually profiled better at Bay Hill a couple of years ago when his wedge and high-iron play was weak and his longer iron game was a strength, rather than the present where both sides are strengths only the long irons are less so.
Nonetheless, Day’s driving power and elite short game mark him for Bay Hill gold, as does his recent form and general ability.
Matsuyama, meanwhile, is an outstanding fit for Bay Hill. He’s long, already one of the game’s best few approach shot players and has a tidy short game to boot. He has five top-10s already this season, and he already won last year at another approach-shot friendly event in the Memorial Tournament.
It’s his first time at Bay Hill, sure, but it was his first time at Muirfield Village last year too. He isn’t quite to the level of Day or Scott ability-wise yet — which is why Scott got my bargain buy despite Mastuyama’s superior course fit — but he’s getting there. The 23-year-old cannot be ignored this week, especially with his robust birdie average.
Martin is a promising 27-year-old who thrived previously on approach shot-oriented golf courses in Harbour Town and Congressional. He has the chance to take a crack at Bay Hill, and when he succeeds at these courses, victory is well within reach.
Ultimate Sleeper Roster
- Morgan Hoffman — $5,500
- Chad Campbell — $5,300
- John Peterson — $5,300
- Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano — $4,900
- Andres Gonzales — $4,800
- Hudson Swafford — $4,300
An eclectic bunch, but definitely youth-oriented. Hoffman is secretly in good form with top-25s in two of his last four starts, and his significant talent means he could burst out at any time. Campbell is neither long nor a short game master, but 2014 proved that he can still be unbelievably good with mid-to-long-irons.
As for the others, Fernandez-Castano was a shot in the dark, as he has been out of order thus far in 2015. Peterson seems to have found his way on Tour after a rough rookie education in 2014, going from 7-of-25 cuts made to 10-of-11.
Swafford, like Matsuyama, hits the three points of big drives, excellent approach play and useful around the greens. His recent results (missing six of his last seven cuts) are alarming, but this is a buy low guy who is coming to a course that adheres to his game’s strengths.
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Tour Photo Galleries
Photos from the 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
GolfWRX is on site this week in McKinney, Texas, at the 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson (FKA the AT&T Byron Nelson).
Last year at TPC Craig Ranch, Jason Day ended a five-year winless streak. J-Day is in the field again, as are Jordan Spieth, Tom Kim, and Will Zalatoris.
We have our usual assortment of general galleries, WITBs, and pullout albums for your perusal. As always, we’ll continue to add links to additional albums as they make their way to us from the Lone Star State.
Check out links to all our photos below.
General Albums
- 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson – Monday #1
- 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson – Monday #2
- 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson – Tuesday #1
- 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson – Tuesday #2
- 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson – Tuesday #3
WITB Albums
- Pierceson Coody – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Kris Kim – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- David Nyfjall – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Adrien Dumont de Chassart – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Jarred Jetter – North Texas PGA Section Champ – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Richy Werenski – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Wesley Bryan – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Parker Coody – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Peter Kuest – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Blaine Hale, Jr. – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Kelly Kraft – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Rico Hoey – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
Pullout Albums
- Adam Scott’s 2 new custom L.A.B. Golf putters – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Scotty Cameron putters – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Ben Griffin playing Maxfli golf ball
See what GolfWRXers are saying in the forums.
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Tour Photo Galleries
Photos from the 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans
GolfWRX is live on site this week at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans for the PGA Tour’s one-and-only two-man team event.
As usual, general galleries, WITBs, and pullout albums — including some pretty spicy custom putters and headcovers — await your viewing.
Be sure to check back for more photos from the Big Easy, as we’ll continue to update this page with additional galleries throughout the week.
General Albums
- 2024 Zurich Classic – Monday #1
- 2024 Zurich Classic – Monday #2
- 2024 Zurich Classic – Tuesday #1
- 2024 Zurich Classic – Tuesday #2
WITB Albums
- Alex Fitzpatrick – WITB – 2024 Zurich Classic
- Austin Cook – WITB – 2024 Zurich Classic
- Alejandro Tosti – WITB – 2024 Zurich Classic
- Davis Riley – WITB – 2024 Zurich Classic
- MJ Daffue – WITB – 2024 Zurich Classic
- Nate Lashley – WITB – 2024 Zurich Classic
- James Nicholas – WITB – 2024 Zurich Classic
- Kevin Streelman – WITB – 2024 Zurich Classic
- Rasmus Hojgaard – WITB – 2024 Zurich Classic
- Tom Whitney – WITB – 2024 Zurich Classic
- SangMoon Bae – WITB – 2024 Zurich Classic
- Daniel Berger – WITB – 2024 Zurich Classic
- Rory McIlroy – WITB – 2024 Zurich Classic
- Russ Cochrane – WITB – 2024 Zurich Classic
- Aldrich Potgieter – WITB – 2024 Zurich Classic
- Steve Stricker WITB – 2024 Zurich Classic
- Drew Brees WITB (Legendary New Orleans Saints QB) – 2024 Zurich Classic
- Derek Carr (New Orleans Saints QB) – 2024 Zurich Classic
- Thriston Lawrence WITB – 2024 Zurich Classic
Pullout Albums
- MJ Daffue’s custom Cameron putter – 2024 Zurich Classic
- Cameron putters – 2024 Zurich Classic
- Swag covers ( a few custom for Nick Hardy) – 2024 Zurich Classic
- Custom Bettinardi covers for Matt and Alex Fitzpatrick – 2024 Zurich Classic
- Doug Ghim’s custom Cameron putter – 2024 Zurich Classic
- Patrick Cantlay spotted testing a Scotty Cameron blade putter – 2024 Zurich Classic
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Tour Photo Galleries
Photos from the 2024 RBC Heritage
GolfWRX is on site this week at Harbour Town Golf Links on Hilton Head Island for the RBC Heritage. Plenty of golfers who competed in the Masters last week will be making the quick turnaround in the Lowcountry of South Carolina as the Heritage is again one of the Tour’s Signature Events.
We have general albums for you to check out, as well as plenty of WITBs — including Justin Thomas and Justin Rose.
We’ll continue to update as more photos flow in from SC.
Check out links to all our photos, below.
General Albums
- 2024 RBC Heritage – Monday #1
- 2024 RBC Heritage – Monday #2
- 2024 RBC Heritage – Tuesday #1
- 2024 RBC Heritage – Tuesday #2
WITB Albums
- Justin Thomas – WITB – 2024 RBC Heritage
- Justin Rose – WITB – 2024 RBC Heritage
- Chandler Phillips – WITB – 2024 RBC Heritage
- Nick Dunlap – WITB – 2024 RBC Heritage
- Thomas Detry – WITB – 2024 RBC Heritage
- Austin Eckroat – WITB – 2024 RBC Heritage
- Xander Schauffele – WITB – 2024 RBC Heritage
- Jason Day – WITB – 2024 RBC Heritage
- Will Zalatoris – WITB – 2024 RBC Heritage
- Patrick Cantlay – WITB – 2024 RBC Heritage
- Ludvig Aberg – WITB – 2024 RBC Heritage
- Collin Morikawa – WITB – 2024 RBC Heritage
- Sam Burns – WITB – 2024 RBC Heritage
- Stephen Jaeger – WITB – 2024 RBC Heritage
Pullout Albums
- Wyndham Clark’s Odyssey putter – 2024 RBC Heritage
- JT’s new Cameron putter – 2024 RBC Heritage
- Justin Thomas testing new Titleist 2 wood – 2024 RBC Heritage
- Cameron putters – 2024 RBC Heritage
- Odyssey putter with triple track alignment aid – 2024 RBC Heritage
- Scotty Cameron The Blk Box putting alignment aid/training aid – 2024 RBC Heritage
- Cameron putter – 2024 RBC Heritage
- Odyssey Ai One Eleven T putters – 2024 RBC Heritage
- Christian Bezuidenhout – testing new Callaway Ti 340 mini driver – 2024 RBC Heritage
- Rory McIlroy testing the new TaylorMade BRNR Mini Driver Copper – 2024 RBC Heritage
- Xander Schauffele testing the Callaway Ti 340 mini driver & the DUW – 2024 RBC Heritage
- Byeong Hun An, two new L.A.B. Golf putter builds with “T” alignment – 2024 RBC Heritage
See what GolfWRXers are saying and join the discussion in the forums.
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Pingback: Fantasy Golf Arnold Palmer Invitational | Discounts For Golf
Ken c
Mar 21, 2015 at 12:33 pm
So far good call on the sleeper Morgan Hoffman
JR
Mar 19, 2015 at 6:47 pm
I have never done DraftKings before seeing this article. I know know how people get addicted to gambling.
gamble gamble
Mar 19, 2015 at 12:48 am
Since you are shorting Stenson and long on Andres Gonzales I will bet you Stenson v 1.4 times Andres Gonzales. Meaning if Andres scores 100 pts you get 140. I love Draft Kings side action