Opinion & Analysis
Can Spieth follow in Rory’s footsteps?
It’s that time of year again—a strange period where Tiger Woods’ unofficial 18-man event carries nearly as much clout in the World Golf Rankings as his own actual PGA Tour tournament in July.
So thank goodness Jordan Spieth decided to set the world ablaze.
The 21-year-old, the butt of thousands of drinking age jokes (seriously it got really annoying), stormed his way to victory at the Australian Open, posting a final-round 63 in breezy conditions to finish six shots ahead. And then of course there was the encore at Woods’ close get-together, where Spieth smoked the host by 26 shots, and everybody else by at least 10.
The American wunderkind has the golf world buzzing. Already considered a future flag bearer for the United States, Spieth and his recent results have left the golf establishment yearning for 2015 to see what this Texas boy wonder can do next.
And with some believing majors will be in his near future, an important question has started to pop up: Will Spieth’s upcoming season roughly match Rory McIlroy’s sensational 2014?
On the outset, it’s not an unjustified inquiry based on these recent events. The round of the year could very well be that 63. And Spieth’s total victory margin of 16 in consecutive weeks is a feat Woods himself has only reached twice.
But the question is presumptuous. It assumes that Spieth holds a real possibility of matching McIlroy’s recent exploits, when the truth is that the chances are exceedingly unlikely.
That’s right, the precious young American is, in essence, a long shot to follow in McIlroy’s 2014 footsteps. And there’s an ample view to see why.
For one, the increased hype hasn’t been entirely organic. Sure, the actual dominance of these two performances of course factored heavily into the rising expectations, but there’s no doubt the similarities between McIlroy’s end to 2013 and Spieth’s recent surge–namely their winning the Australian Open following disappointing seasons in the public eye–also aided in this production. Spieth was asked about this similarity in his post-tournament press conference in Australia, and some writers have brought it up since. And it serves no purpose but to add phony fuel to the Spieth expectation machine for 2015. It’s a downright lazy way to foster support for Spieth 2015, as any matching facts between McIlroy’s and Spieth’s Aussie victories are pure coincidences, not portenders of the latter’s future performance.
As for those dominating performances, let’s be realistic about the true nature of these tournaments. The Australian Open contains big names at the top, but little overall depth. And Woods’ event, while boasting a strong field, is a relaxed atmosphere with its unofficial status, contains less than 20 competitors and is in a spot in December when golfer motivation is alarmingly low. These were still impressive performances with extraordinary winning margins, but when you shine the light closer these weren’t exactly world-class events Spieth stormed through.
All of this brings more of a realistic shade to those 2015 ambitions, but to truly comprehend Spieth’s long odds, we have to understand just how special McIlroy’s 2014 campaign turned out. No, it’s not an all-time great season—Tiger has at least a few himself that he could say were better—but the numbers are staggering. In 24 total events, four wins, including two majors and the European Tour’s flagship event, 17 top-10s—a few admittedly backdoor—and one lone finish outside of the top-25. The wins, and the magnitude of the triumphs, are what catch the headlines, (and deservedly so), but the lack of truly disastrous results adds worth to the season’s value.
As Alex Myers noted, McIlroy went a whole year in golf and had one truly bad week. That’s incredible.
McIlroy posted this set of performances at 25, while Spieth must strive for those marks as he enters his age-21 season—a near impossible proposition.
Over the past 40 years, no single 21-year-old has put together a season that is an undisputed equal of what McIlroy pieced out in 2014. Woods and Seve Ballesteros are the only two who can claim age-21 seasons that “roughly match” Rory’s 2014—Woods with his four wins and one major in 1997 and Ballesteros with a five-win campaign in 1978. Otherwise nothing comes close to the McIlroy 2014 standard we are looking to reach here.
The next best seasons in this time span belong to Sergio Garcia (three wins, 11 top-10s in 2001), Adam Scott (two wins, nine top-10s in 2002) and Robert Gamez (two wins in 1990). While excellent campaigns from this trio, these don’t quite fit the criteria.
The picking here is slim then, with those age-21 players accomplishing roughly matching seasons to McIlroy 2014 once every 20 years. And the players on the outer section of the orbit are just as pared down.
If anybody could crack into this 21 group, namely the Woods-Ballesteros section, Spieth, based on his talent, is near the top of the list. But he would have to accomplish something that is done basically once every generation, a daunting task even for a player of Spieth’s ability.
And there’s a common theme among this quintet of 21-year-old achievers: They were all long drivers at the time of the season in question—with Woods and Ballesteros at the very top in this category.
That is probably not a coincidence.
Experience is a tough factor to measure in a golfer’s performance, but at age 21 every player lacks it to a large degree, and that deficiency likely hampers any young gun on the course. The long ball is the main way to overcome this disadvantage youth presents—course knowledge and strategy are overrated when you can hit your approach from 30 yards closer—and if you can’t pipe it deep, the trail to early domination becomes a lot more perilous.
Spieth is not a long-hitter by Tour standards, and is of course nowhere near Ballesteros-Woods. The 21-year-old is decidedly average in distance, finishing 89th in the category among 177 qualifying PGA Tour players in 2014 and 80th in a set of 180 the previous season.
All of this presents him another significant obstacle in soaring to Rory-like heights in 2014. Not only must the Texan pull off a once-in-a-generation feat, he has to do so while lacking a main attribute of all the previous men who accomplished something special at age 21.
Matters aren’t looking too good then in trying to reach the McIlroy standard.
Spieth no doubt has a bright future in this game, and at the very least his floor in 2015, and going forward, will be quite high. His game is as all-around as it gets, a circumstance that should shield him from any truly abysmal seasons.
The McIlroy-like visions may not be met, but Spieth’s 2015 won’t be an absolute bust.
With the 21-year-old, the expectations should be high, but fans and media tend to get carried away with this American darling.
Following a rookie year in which he became the youngest winner on the PGA Tour since the 1930s, Spieth was considered a closer. A year later, losing efforts at the Masters and Players Championship were enough to convince observers to flip-flop and call Spieth “the great player who couldn’t close.”
It’s fair to anticipate another victory or two from Spieth in 2015; a major might easily be there for the taking as well. But there’s no need to panic if he doesn’t win, and it’s especially useless to fret if his season doesn’t come close to resembling the success of McIlroy’s 2014.
Spieth is for sure the leader of the American revolution in the professional level, just don’t expect it to be a short battle.
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19th Hole
Vincenzi’s LIV Golf Singapore betting preview: Course specialist ready to thrive once again
After another strong showing in Australia, LIV Golf will head to Sentosa Golf Club in Singapore looking to build off of what was undoubtedly their best event to date.
Sentosa Golf Club sits on the southern tip of Singapore and is one of the most beautiful courses in the world. The course is more than just incredible scenically; it was also rated 55th in Golf Digest’s top-100 courses in 2022-2023 and has been consistently regarded as one of the best courses in Asia. Prior to being part of the LIV rotation, the course hosted the Singapore Open every year since 2005.
Sentosa Golf Club is a par 71 measuring 7,406 yards. The course will require precise ball striking and some length off the tee. It’s possible to go low due to the pristine conditions, but there are also plenty of hazards and difficult spots on the course that can bring double bogey into play in a hurry. The Bermudagrass greens are perfectly manicured, and the course has spent millions on the sub-air system to keep the greens rolling fast. I spoke to Asian Tour player, Travis Smyth, who described the greens as “the best [he’s] ever played.”
Davis Love III, who competed in a Singapore Open in 2019, also gushed over the condition of the golf course.
“I love the greens. They are fabulous,” the 21-time PGA Tour winner said.
Love III also spoke about other aspects of the golf course.
“The greens are great; the fairways are perfect. It is a wonderful course, and it’s tricky off the tee.”
“It’s a long golf course, and you get some long iron shots. It takes somebody hitting it great to hit every green even though they are big.”
As Love III said, the course can be difficult off the tee due to the length of the course and the trouble looming around every corner. It will take a terrific ball striking week to win at Sentosa Golf Club.
In his pre-tournament press conference last season, Phil Mickelson echoed many of the same sentiments.
“To play Sentosa effectively, you’re going to have a lot of shots from 160 to 210, a lot of full 6-, 7-, 8-iron shots, and you need to hit those really well and you need to drive the ball well.”
Golfers who excel from tee to green and can dial in their longer irons will have a massive advantage this week.
Stat Leaders at LIV Golf Adelaide:
Fairways Hit
1.) Louis Oosthuizen
2.) Anirban Lahiri
3.) Jon Rahm
4.) Brendan Steele
5.) Cameron Tringale
Greens in Regulation
1.) Brooks Koepka
2.) Brendan Steele
3.) Dean Burmester
4.) Cameron Tringale
5.) Anirban Lahiri
Birdies Made
1.) Brendan Steele
2.) Dean Burmester
3.) Thomas Pieters
4.) Patrick Reed
5.) Carlos Ortiz
LIV Golf Individual Standings:
1.) Joaquin Niemann
2.) Jon Rahm
3.) Dean Burmester
4.) Louis Oosthuizen
5.) Abraham Ancer
LIV Golf Team Standings:
1.) Crushers
2.) Legion XIII
3.) Torque
4.) Stinger GC
5.) Ripper GC
LIV Golf Singapore Picks
Sergio Garcia +3000 (DraftKings)
Sergio Garcia is no stranger to Sentosa Golf Club. The Spaniard won the Singapore Open in 2018 by five strokes and lost in a playoff at LIV Singapore last year to scorching hot Talor Gooch. Looking at the course setup, it’s no surprise that a player like Sergio has played incredible golf here. He’s long off the tee and is one of the better long iron players in the world when he’s in form. Garcia is also statistically a much better putter on Bermudagrass than he is on other putting surfaces. He’s putt extremely well on Sentosa’s incredibly pure green complexes.
This season, Garcia has two runner-up finishes, both of them being playoff losses. Both El Camaleon and Doral are courses he’s had success at in his career. The Spaniard is a player who plays well at his tracks, and Sentosa is one of them. I believe Sergio will get himself in the mix this week. Hopefully the third time is a charm in Singapore.
Paul Casey +3300 (FanDuel)
Paul Casey is in the midst of one of his best seasons in the five years or so. The results recently have been up and down, but he’s shown that when he’s on a golf course that suits his game, he’s amongst the contenders.
This season, Casey has finishes of T5 (LIV Las Vegas), T2 (LIV Hong Kong), and a 6th at the Singapore Classic on the DP World Tour. At his best, the Englishman is one of the best long iron players in the world, which makes him a strong fit for Sentosa. Despite being in poor form last season, he was able to fire a Sunday 63, which shows he can low here at the course.
It’s been three years since Casey has won a tournament (Omega Dubai Desert Classic in 2021), but he’s been one of the top players on LIV this season and I think he can get it done at some point this season.
Mito Pereira +5000 (Bet365)
Since Mito Pereira’s unfortunate demise at the 2022 PGA Championship, he’s been extremely inconsistent. However, over the past few months, the Chilean has played well on the International Series as well as his most recent LIV start. Mito finished 8th at LIV Adelaide, which was his best LIV finish this season.
Last year, Pereira finished 5th at LIV Singapore, shooting fantastic rounds of 67-66-66. It makes sense why Mito would like Sentosa, as preeminent ball strikers tend to rise to the challenge of the golf course. He’s a great long iron player who is long and straight off the tee.
Mito has some experience playing in Asia and is one of the most talented players on LIV who’s yet to get in the winner’s circle. I have questions about whether or not he can come through once in contention, but if he gets there, I’m happy to roll the dice.
Andy Ogletree +15000 (DraftKings)
Andy Ogletree is a player I expected to have a strong 2024 but struggled early in his first full season on LIV. After failing to crack the top-25 in any LIV event this year, the former U.S. Amateur champion finally figured things out, finished in a tie for 3rd at LIV Adelaide.
Ogletree should be incredible comfortable playing in Singapore. He won the International Series Qatar last year and finished T3 at the International Series Singapore. The 26-year-old was arguably the best player on the Asian Tour in 2023 and has been fantastic in the continent over the past 18 months.
If Ogletree has indeed found form, he looks to be an amazing value at triple-digit odds.
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In Tampa, there is a golf course that boasts carts that do not work, a water range, and a group of players none of which have any chance to break 80. The course is overseen by a staff of crusty men who have succeeded at nothing in life but ending up at the worst-run course in America. However, this place is no failure. With several other local courses going out of business — and boasting outstanding greens — the place is booked full.
While I came for the great greens, I stayed to watch our resident instructor; a poor-tempered, method teacher who caters to the hopeless. At first, it was simply hilarious. However, after months of listening and watching, something clicked. I realized I had a front-row seat to the worst golf instructor in America.
Here are some of my key takeaways.
Method Teacher
It is widely accepted that there are three types of golf instructors: system teachers, non-system teachers, and method teachers. Method teachers prescribe the same antidote for each student based on a preamble which teachers can learn in a couple day certification.
Method teaching allows anyone to be certified. This process caters to the lowest caliber instructor, creating the illusion of competency. This empowers these underqualified instructors with the moniker of “certified” to prey on the innocent and uninformed.
The Cult of Stack and Jilt
The Stack and Tilt website proudly boasts, “A golfer swings his hands inward in the backswing as opposed to straight back to 1) create power, similar to a field goal kicker moving his leg in an arc and 2) to promote a swing that is in-to-out, which produces a draw (and eliminates a slice).”
Now, let me tell you something, there is this law of the universe which says “energy can either be created or destroyed,” so either these guys are defying physics or they have no idea what they are taking about. Further, the idea that the first move of the backswing determines impact is conjecture with a splash of utter fantasy.
These are the pontifications of a method — a set of prescriptions applied to everyone with the hope of some success through the placebo effect. It is one thing for a naive student to believe, for a golf instructor to drink and then dispel this Kool-Aid is malpractice.
Fooled by Randomness
In flipping a coin, or even a March Madness bet, there is a 50-50 chance of success. In golf, especially for new players, results are asymmetric. Simply put: Anything can happen. The problem is that when bad instructors work with high handicappers, each and every shot gets its own diagnosis and prescription. Soon the student is overwhelmed.
Now here’s the sinister thing: The overwhelming information is by design. In this case, the coach is not trying to make you better, they are trying to make you reliant on them for information. A quasi Stockholm syndrome of codependency.
Practice
One of the most important scientists of the 20th century was Ivan Pavlov. As you might recall, he found that animals, including humans, could be conditioned into biological responses. In golf, the idea of practice has made millions of hackers salivate that they are one lesson or practice session from “the secret.”
Sunk Cost
The idea for the worst golf instructor is to create control and dependency so that clients ignore the sunk cost of not getting better. Instead, they are held hostage by the idea that they are one lesson or tip away from unlocking their potential.
Cliches
Cliches have the effect of terminating thoughts. However, they are the weapon of choice for this instructor. Add some hyperbole and students actually get no information. As a result, these players couldn’t play golf. When they did, they had no real scheme. With no idea what they are doing, they would descend into a spiral of no idea what to do, bad results, lower confidence, and running back to the lesson tee from more cliches.
The fact is that poor instruction is about conditioning players to become reliant members of your cult. To take away autonomy. To use practice as a form of control. To sell more golf lessons not by making people better but through the guise that without the teacher, the student can never reach their full potential. All under the umbrella of being “certified” (in a 2-day course!) and a melee of cliches.
This of course is not just happening at my muni but is a systemic problem around the country and around the world, the consequences of which are giving people a great reason to stop playing golf. But hey, at least it’s selling a lot of golf balls…
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The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.
TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.
Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.
However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.
Past Winners at TPC Louisiana
- 2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
- 2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
- 2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
- 2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
- 2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
- 2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)
2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks
Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)
Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.
This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.
McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.
Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)
Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.
Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.
Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)
Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.
NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.
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Golfraven
Dec 17, 2014 at 3:11 pm
Sorry but saying Jordan will not be a true champion because of his lenght is pure nonsense. What makes him a champion already is his dedication, integrity and respect for his team, other players and the game. He certainly figered it out at an age earlier to Rory. Yeah he is sometimes bold in his interviews but this is just hishonesty and confidence – nothing wrong about that, he knows what he wants. Want to see more players of his class. Go on Jordan, don’t be a Tiger!
Golfraven
Dec 17, 2014 at 2:57 pm
OK this may be controversial but I say it, Jordan will win his first green jacket before Rory. Its his time. Like both players and both would be in my dream foursome flight. Both will be leading next ‘Big Three’ generation of players – I cannot decide on the 3rd player at this time (maybe Ricky). Looking forward to see Rors and Jordan competing. Just hope Jordan will not join Nike – that would kill it for me.
Ponjo
Dec 25, 2014 at 3:05 am
HaHa. So playing NIke clubs would ruin it for you how exactly.
Tom Earls
Dec 17, 2014 at 12:01 pm
I would like a little less speculation on who is the next world #1. I like golf. I don’t need to know who is number 1 by some pointg system. They’re all good, and entertaining. The mistake you al make covering golf is focusing on 2 or 3 golfers who are at the top. The following week 6 other guys lead the tournament on Friday and Saturday and the fans have never heard of them, and the announceres are left wondering who is this guy and why isn’t Tiger playing the weekend. Cover them all. At leaset the top 30 or so so when the weekend comes we have at least heard of the leaders.
Thanks.
Tom
Jonny B
Dec 17, 2014 at 10:14 am
Great picture for this article. I think we really could be on the brink of a special rivalry (or chivalry) with these two young guys. Both are incredibly talented. The picture reminds me of Palmer (Spieth) and Player (McIlroy). One of the great rivalries in the history of the game.
j.a.
Dec 16, 2014 at 6:40 am
Jordan Spieth is in a different category than Rory. He plays the precision game. He might go a par 4 with driver an a 9 iron instead driver and a wedge but for sure, that 7 iron will send the ball to where he can secure birdies. Mathematics are simple, a 400m par 4 equals 300m + 100m or 250m + 150m. Moreover, his putting is outstanding.
He might had a beer or two legally while in Australia and something else to celebrate the Aussie Open victory. He’s more than welcome Down Under and I look forward to see him in person again. He will have a great 2015 and beyond.
dapadre
Dec 16, 2014 at 6:34 am
Only time will tell, but the kid has MASSIVE game. If you compare him at his age vs Rors, he was CERTAINLY BETTER. One thing i love about him is he really wants it. He has that Tiger ferociousness which Rors doesnt have. Not saying its bad but I get the felling for Rors everything doesnt revolve around golf but for Spieth it seems to. For those saying he wont win because of length, agree length is very important but we have seen many past players that werent that long that did very well.
Mark
Dec 16, 2014 at 2:37 am
I a word “No”. Spieth is a fine player but is not in the same league as Rory. Not long enough to dominate the modern game.
jgpl001
Dec 16, 2014 at 5:35 pm
Totally agree
He is a fine player, a great putter, and will win loads of tournaments, but Rory is in a totally different league, totally different
marcel
Dec 16, 2014 at 12:34 am
he can sign up with Horizon and then break contract and sue them. otherwise boy has no chance to replicate Rory
j
Dec 15, 2014 at 9:36 pm
“backdoor” top 10. seriously, just because you play well the last day you want to call it a backdoor top 10. you play four days and if you get a top 10 it doesn’t matter how you do it. last time i checked a 65 still counts as 65 on Sunday just as much as it does on any other day. Playing hard on Sunday even when you don’t have a chance to win is a sign of a true competitor, especially for the truly elite players like Tiger, Phil, Rory, etc who judge their years based on victories. It would be much easier to just mail it in and get it to the house and get outta Dodge but Rory plays hard on Sunday. Calling it a backdoor top 10 makes it sound less impressive than it actually is. I guess next time someone takes a 2 shot lead into the final round and shoots 74 to tie for 8th you can call him and congratulate him on his “frontdoor” top 10. Either way you still have to beat the whole field except for around 10 or less people which is great golf.
Mike
Dec 15, 2014 at 8:30 pm
No
Rich
Dec 16, 2014 at 6:29 am
+1
Scotty
Dec 15, 2014 at 11:24 am
Wow I can’t believe I keep hearing ” he hits it too short ”
He just wont by 10 shots on islesworth which is extremely long and difficult
Jordan hits itg plenty long and only 21 plus he can bulk up just like rory in 6 months if he wanted to
He is not “as good” as rory mcilroy but can hold is own and will win 5+ majors for sure
Just my two cents
Pat
Dec 15, 2014 at 1:39 pm
That’s because he’s average off the tee distance wise. Not very accurate either. Kid has a good short game though to make up for his short comings. He doesn’t have nearly the talent and length that McIlroy does and when it’s all said and done, he won’t have nearly as many wins period.
Jadon
Dec 15, 2014 at 11:21 am
Spieth is a monster. We love our Texas boy.
Jake Anderson
Dec 16, 2014 at 6:39 am
no we don’t.
bradford
Dec 15, 2014 at 11:11 am
While I’d love to be proven wrong, it’s unlikely Rory’s 2015 will match his own 2014.
Jake Anderson
Dec 15, 2014 at 10:52 am
Very correctly analyzed. Spieth hits it too short to be a true champion.
Jimmeh
Dec 15, 2014 at 12:46 pm
Luke Donald 2011 might want a say here…
AndyB
Dec 15, 2014 at 7:32 pm
Luke Donald has never won a major, and I have major money saying he never will. Length will keep Spieth from dominating in the majors and winning more than 2-3 in his career. He will be a good player with great moments for years to come, but he will not be on Rory’s level.