News
Dustin Johnson expected to return at Farmers
Dustin Johnson, who’s been on a leave of absence from the PGA Tour since July 31, is targeting the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines on Feb. 5-8, 2015 to make his return.
His fiancee Paulina Gretzky is pregnant with the couples’ first child, and the baby’s due date reportedly coincides with the Farmers Insurance Open, so his return to competition isn’t definite.
Johnson’s last appearance on tour was at the 2014 RBC Canadian Open where he missed the cut. Upon taking his leave of absence after that event, Johnson was ranked No. 16 according to the Official World Golf Ranking. He’s still ranked No. 16 as of Tuesday Nov. 18, so he hasn’t lost any ground, but he did miss out on the 2014 PGA Championship and the 2014 Ryder Cup.
How will the 30-year old play upon his return to competition? He shot a 61 at Sherwood Country Club in Thousand Oaks, Calif., breaking Tiger Woods’ course record on Oct. 28, so maybe he won’t be as rusty as we’d expect, but no one is immune to the sleepless nights and pressures of having their first child.
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Vincenzi’s 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson betting preview: International talent to shine
As anticipation mounts for the 2024 PGA Championship at Valhalla in a few weeks, the PGA Tour makes a pit stop in McKinney, Texas to play The CJ CUP Byron Nelson.
Last year was the third time TPC Craig Ranch hosted the Byron Nelson. Prior to 2021, the event was held at Trinity Forest Golf Club in Dallas.
TPC Craig Ranch is a 7,414-yard par-71 that features Bentgrass greens. The event historically plays relatively easy, and that has remained the case in the three editions at TPC Craig Ranch.
The course structure may provide some additional intrigue with the par-3 17th featuring a stadium setup called “Ranch 17” which is reminiscent of the 16th hole at TPC Scottsdale. The course also has both long and difficult par-4s mixed with drivable par-4s, which should create some exciting moments.
There are 156 golfers in the field this week, and many stars will be taking the week off to prepare for 2023’s second major championship in a few weeks and a “signature event” at Quail Hollow next week. Notable players in the field include Jordan Spieth, Jason Day, Sungjae Im, Stephan Jaeger, Tom Kim, Si Woo Kim, Min Woo Lee, Alex Noren, Adam Scott and Will Zalatoris.
Past Winners of the AT&T Byron Nelson
- 2023: Jason Day (-23 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2022: K.H. Lee (-26 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2021: K.H. Lee (-25 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2019: Sung Kang (-23)
- 2018: Aaron Wise (-23)
- 2017: Billy Horschel (-12)
- 2016: Sergio Garcia (-15)
- 2015: Steven Bowditch (-18)
Key Stats at TPC Craig Ranch
Let’s take a look at five key metrics for TPC Craig Ranch to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Approach remains the best measure of current form.
Hot iron play will be at a premium this week. Last year, Jason Day gained 6.4 strokes on approach, which was fourth in the field. In 2022, K.H. Lee was ninth in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining 5.2 strokes. In his 2021 victory, he was second in the field and gained 8.3 strokes on the field in the category.
Strokes Gaines: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds
- Tom Hoge (+1.12)
- Keith Mitchell (+1.02)
- Henrik Norlander (+0.99)
- Ryan Moore (+0.98)
- Ben Martin (0.80)
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Fairways are wide at TPC Craig Ranch.
Distance will certainly be helpful, and there aren’t too many difficult holes on the course. Golfers who put themselves in position off of the tee this week should have a sizable advantage.
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Over Past 24 Rounds
- Peter Kuest (+0.93)
- Kevin Daugherty (+0.91)
- Alejandro Tosti (+0.83)
- Keith Mitchell (+0.82)
- Kevin Tway (+0.74)
Birdie or Better %
There aren’t many hazards on the course, and all of the par-5s should be reachable in two for the majority of the players in the field. I am anticipating a birdie fest, and this statistic should be helpful in finding the birdie-makers.
Birdie or Better % Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Wesley Bryan (31%)
- Kelly Kraft (26.2%)
- Peter Kuest (25.9%)
- Matti Schmid (25.7%
- Jimmy Stanger (25.2%)
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
Many golfers on TOUR have some major putting surface variance in their statistics and prefer Bentgrass to other surfaces.
Bentgrass is common in Texas, and we often see golfers who play well in Texas continue to do so, finding a great feel around the greens.
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass) Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Maverick McNealy (+0.92)
- Aaron Baddeley (+0.87)
- Callum Tarren (+0.86)
- Harry Hall (+0.81)
- Nick Hardy (+0.69)
Course History
This statistic will tell us which players have performed the best at TPC Craig Ranch over the past three seasons.
Course History Over Past 12 Rounds:
- Jordan Spieth (+2.69)
- K.H. Lee (+2.59)
- Seamus Power (+1.84)
- Ryan Palmer (+1.76)
- Adam Scott (+1.72)
CJ CUP Byron Nelson Model Rankings
Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: OTT (24%), Birdie or Better % (18%), Course History (17%) and SG: Putting Bentgrass (16%).
- Alex Noren
- Adam Scott
- Keith Mitchell
- Si Woo Kim
- Stephen Jaeger
- Jordan Spieth
- Jhonnatan Vegas
- Nate Lashley
- Brice Garnett
- Tom Hoge
2024 CJ CUP Byron Nelson Picks
Byeong Hun An +3000 (DraftKings)
Byeong Hun put together an excellent performance at The Masters, finishing T16, which ties his best ever finish at a major championship (also T16 at 2019 U.S. Open). The South Korean gained 9.16 strokes from tee to green, which ranked 2nd in the field behind only the champion, Scottie Scheffler.
An’s next start at Harbour Town didn’t go as well (67th), but he still had a fantastic ball striking week. The 32-year-old bled strokes both around and on the greens, which was his eventual undoing. In his past three starts, An has gained significant strokes on the field both off the tee and on approach.
Benny had a strong start at last year’s Byron Nelson, finishing in a tie for 14th. With limited challenges on the course, he shouldn’t have to do much scrambling. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 17th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 17th in the field in birdie or better percentage. The putter is up and down per usual, but his ceiling putting weeks with his LAB Golf putter in 2024 are higher than they’ve been in past seasons.
An is starting to become my “white whale” of the PGA Tour, but I believe in his talent and TPC Craig Ranch is a course that should suit his excellent tee to green play.
Mackenzie Hughes +5500 (FanDuel)
Mackenzie Hughes is quietly putting together a very good season. He finished in a tie for 3rd at the Valspar Championship and followed that up with a T14 at the Texas Children’s Houston Open.
In his past 36 rounds in Texas, the Canadian ranks 5th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total. Last year, he finished in a tie for 14th at this event and gained strokes putting and off the tee. Mackenzie played well that week despite being in extremely poor form. He missed two cuts in a row prior to the event, and four consecutive cuts immediately after. His irons were off that week, but in 2024, we’ve seen an improvement in Hughes’ approach game. He now comes to the event playing some steady golf. He’s gained strokes on approach in four of his past five events and is hitting the ball very well from tee to green.
Hughes has two victories on the PGA Tour, both coming in relatively low-scoring affairs (-17 in each). He will need to go a bit deeper to win the CJ Cup Byron Nelson but has the type of putter that can keep pace in a birdie barrage.
Seamus Power +7000 (FanDuel)
After struggling over the past few seasons with injuries, Seamus Power seems as if he is rounding back into the form that made him a really consistent player on the PGA Tour.
Power finished T12 in his most recent start at the RBC Heritage, which is encouraging considering it was a “signature event” with a very strong field. For the week, the Irishman gained 4.4 strokes on approach and 2.8 strokes putting, which is the combination he’s used in the past to contend on Tour.
In his three trips to TPC Craig Ranch, Power is yet to finish outside of the top-20, with his best finish being a T9 in 2019. He ranks 4th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course. The 37-year-old thrives on easy tracks and has won in 2021 (Barbasol Championship) and 2022 (Butterfield Bermuda) on easier layouts with weaker fields.
Power has the game to go extremely low and I believe he can get back in the winner’s circle for the third time in four years.
Chan Kim +10000 (FanDuel)
Chan Kim has been striking the ball beautifully this season and is a proven winner with two wins on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2023 as well as eight career Japan Tour wins.
At last week’s Zurich Classic, Kim and his partner Doug Ghim finished in a tie for 28th. Prior to that, the South Korean T14 at the Valero Texas Open and T6 at the Corales Puntacana Championship. His success this season in Texas as well as he propensity to play his best golf on the PGA Tour’s easier courses make him and ideal fit for TPC Craig Ranch.
2024 has given plenty of longshot winners on the PGA Tour, and with a birdie fest like this, I believe there’s a strong chance we get another this week in McKinney, Texas.
Alejandro Tosti +10000 (FanDuel)
Alejandro Tosti is one of the most polarizing players on the PGA Tour thus far in the 2024 season. His antics can rub many the wrong way, but he’s shown on a few occasions that he has what it takes to compete in Tour events.
This season, Tosti has been elite off the tee. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 2nd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. The Argentine hits it long and straight, which works at any course on earth. He got a taste of contention a few starts ago at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, finishing in a tie for 2nd place.
Tosti had a fantastic year in 2023 on the Korn Ferry Tour, where going low is a prerequisite to success. If this turns to a shootout, which it likely will, the 27-year-old has the ability to set the pace. Tosti will look to become the second Argentine to win in Texas in the past two seasons after Emiliano Grillo emerged victorious at last year’s Charles Schwab Challenge.
C.T. Pan +15000 (FanDuel)
Outside of a T3 at the Mexico Open, C.T. Pan doesn’t have strong results this season in terms of finishes. However, over his past two starts, Pan’s iron play has come alive. At The Players, he gained 6.6 strokes on approach. At the Valero Texas Open, he gained 3.7. At last week’s Zurich Classic, Pan and his partner Kevin Yu finished T28. For a player who can get extremely hot with his scoring clubs, I believe he’s playing better than the results have shown over the past month or so.
Last season, Pan finished 4th at TPC Craig Ranch and was spectacular across all the major stat categories. In his past 36 qualifying rounds, he ranks 16th in Strokes Gained: Total in Texas.
Pan has won on the PGA Tour at the RBC Heritage and is always a player that I believe has what it takes to win on a Sunday if he finds himself in contention.
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Morning 9: McIlroy, Lowry win Zurich | Green repeats on LPGA | Steele victorious down under
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Morning 9: 58 on the Korn Ferry Tour | Rory on possible return to policy board
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Joel
Dec 1, 2014 at 2:01 am
Let the man snort lines off Paulina…I could care less. I just miss seeing the guy play. I’ve never understood the testing for recreational drugs, if someone thinks doing cocaine or smoking pot is anymore than a hindrance to competing at the professional level than someone clearly hasn’t partied much.
HGH or other PED’s…I could still care less but I understand that argument a touch more. I think everyone on tour should have to clear a bong load and eat a bag of shrooms and then play…talk about must see TV!
Garrick Smith
Dec 24, 2014 at 12:39 pm
Just so I understand: you’re saying that its Ok if the PGA looks the other way if the players use recreational drugs and PEDs?
This IS sarcasm, right?
Davethegolfer
Nov 19, 2014 at 5:32 am
When is golf going to be transparent in its dealing with its athletes. Like it or not there are banned substances and sanctions apply for use of those substances. We are no longer in the days of the gentleman’s club where matter were dealt with privately and swept under the carpet.
Pat
Nov 19, 2014 at 2:00 pm
Exactly. You have guys on tour like Tiger, Rory, Camilo, and Adam Scott using PEDs and nobody talks about it. The testing for PEDs in most sports is ridiculous. They go by epi/test ratio. A normal, young, healthy male cannot exceed 2:1. Yet, all sports have loose standards/thresholds for these tests. For the NFL it’s 10:1, baseball 5:1 and for golf I’m guessing it’s 5:1 as well which leaves room for these guys to use small-moderate amounts of steroids depending on the sport. I have friend that used to play back up linebacker for the Bears and the ex-golf pro at my course was scouted by the Angels and used to play in Triple A so it’s not speculation on my part, but factual. Reasons why the PGA sweeps these positive tests under the rug and allows such high tolerances is because it would hurt the industry, ratings would plummet and they would lose sponsors and money. Maybe someday the PGA tour will be transparent with the drug use on tour, but it’s not going to be anytime soon.
Vinnie
Nov 19, 2014 at 2:23 pm
Because sports realized a long time ago that it is all about entertainment not athletes.
I work in the pro cycling industry and the Tour de France knew years (pre-Lance BS) that that race was all about entertainment. They had a very high hemocrit level so cyclists could dope (to a certain level) to be able to provide 3 weeks of entertainment for people watching. It made great TV, and was exciting to watch.
All pro sports are the same way. If they truly cared about a “clean sport” then one legit drug test would solve all that. Leagues keep ratios high so people can do it, perform at their best and then fans, ratings and TV contracts grow.
Carlos Danger
Nov 20, 2014 at 2:47 pm
Oh great…we now have the “I know for a fact this athlete did Steroids” guy commenting on the message boards. Im sure you have a buddy who played golf at a course that had a caddy who knew a girl whos best friend slept with a musician who liked golf and said he knew a janitor at a Taco Bell who saw that “golfer guy” with what looked like a steroid needle…or an ink pen. He wasnt sure but it could have been a steroid needle. So I figured Im just gonna spew that out on the message board because it seems pretty credible.
Video, failed drug test, testimony, etc…with some proof of your statement “Tiger, Rory, Camilo, and Adam Scott using PEDs” would be nice. Were waiting…
Pat
Nov 20, 2014 at 7:01 pm
Carlos, you are clearly ignorant and don’t have a clue on how sports at the highest levels works. You have no right to comment. I already told you that the standards for the epi/test ratio is very loose in sports. I gave specifics as well and cited my sources. You can go ahead and live in your lala fairy tale world. Must be nice being oblivious to so many things in life.
Carlos Danger
Nov 21, 2014 at 9:39 am
I have no right to comment? Well please let me know when you have granted me permission to speak about whether or not guys who play golf for a living take testosterone to help them hit a golf ball farther. How dare I speak without your approval.
I never said professional athletes dont take PEDs/Steroids. In fact I am well aware that they take them (and quite frankly I could care less).
I am simply pointing out that the “I know a guy who said these guys take steroids” comments are lame. If you have some evidence of Rory, Tiger, Scott, etc…taking this stuff or testing positive then provide to all of us. Point us to a link supporting this. Give us some pictures or videos of it happening. If not, then you are just another jackweasel making random accusations.
bradford
Nov 21, 2014 at 1:32 pm
Pat, your “cited” sources are nothing but made up stories and you know it as well as everyone who reads your comments. There is zero validity to your “citations” whatsoever. You should just bow out, as you know Carlos is correct and you will never post your alleged “proof” because it doesn’t exist. You got called out.
Pat
Nov 20, 2014 at 7:06 pm
Do you know or have a personal relationship with any ex or current pro athletes, Carlos? Yeah, I didn’t think so. I do, and it’s not just one, it’s two, so my statement is clearly confirmed not once, but twice. Also, there was that nobody years ago that got popped for a positive test for steroids on the PGA tour, so this proves too that PED use is apparent on tour. Like I said, go ahead and ignore facts and make yourself look ignorant.
Carlos Danger
Nov 21, 2014 at 9:50 am
I do know/have a personal relationship with professional athletes but who really cares. I certainly dont care if you do. And yes I have had these people tell me things about the pro sports world that are similar to what you stated…however its really no different than things I hear or see in regular life so who cares. I certainly wouldnt go around saying “my buddy who is a pro athlete told me other pro athletes do bad things sometimes.”
Im well aware that adults take drugs. I dont really care if they do as long as it does not affect me or my family.
IN terms of ignoring facts…you didnt provide any. Unless you want to count “I know people and they told me” as a fact.
And relax on the manufactured outrage of athletes taking PED’s. Do you really not have other things in your life that are more important than this? I would say family, friends, job, mortgage, etc…take a front seat to worrying about Camillio Villegas licking deer antlers to hit a golf ball 315 instead of 308.
bradford
Nov 21, 2014 at 1:35 pm
Name them. “Clearly confirmed”? Hardly. Again, We’re expected to believe this made up story solely because you said so? I don’t, because it’s false.
What facts are being ignored?
Carlos Danger
Nov 20, 2014 at 2:50 pm
When are people on message boards going to stop pretending to care if athletes take a PED so that you can be overly entertained?
Oh My God! Rory might have sniffed deer urine before the open championship! I feel so cheated having enjoyed watching him hit the ball 350 down the middle for 4 days. My manufactured outrage is making me really mad!
AZ Golfman
Nov 18, 2014 at 5:18 pm
And let the cocaine jokes start rolling in…
Ha
Nov 18, 2014 at 9:37 pm
Guess he won’t have to worry about the sleepless nights…
Booger
Nov 18, 2014 at 11:25 pm
Hope he can still rip it without the booger sugar.
Ponjo
Nov 19, 2014 at 5:37 pm
+1