News
HP Byron Nelson Championship preview
By Pete Pappas
GolfWRX Staff Writer
The PGA Tour gallops back into the “Longhorn State” for the 2012 Byron Nelson Championship and third leg of the Tour’s Texas Swing.
Keegan Bradley returns to defend his title in a Lone Star field featuring 10 past champions, 12 of the top-30 players in the FedExCup standings, and 10 major winners.
Bradley’s 278 (three-under) last year was the highest winning score at “The Nelson” since 1981 and the fourth-highest since the tournament was first played in 1944.
His come from behind playoff victory over Ryan Palmer kicked off a sensational rookie campaign which included (another playoff) victory in his first major, the PGA Championship, and 2011 PGA Tour Rookie of the Year honors.
“I went from being an unknown rookie trying to keep his card to winning a PGA Tour event and locking up my future a bit,” Bradley said. “This tournament will be special to me.”
Bradley tries to become the first back-to-back winner of the Dallas event since Tom Watson did it three consecutive times over three decades ago (1978 to 1980).
Seven players inside the Official World Golf Rankings top-25 and six winners in 2012 will also tee it up at TPC Four Seasons Resort Las Colinas (where more than a quarter-million people are expected to attend over the weekend).
World No. 5 (and always smiling) Matt Kuchar comes off his fourth career and most prestigious victory at The Players last week. A win in Dallas would make him only the second player this season to win multiple times (Hunter Mahan).
“I love the challenge that the game provides,” Kuchar said. “I’m trying to find a way to get better and win [more] golf tournaments.”
The 33 year-old Kuchar finished tied for sixth last year at Four Seasons.
Meanwhile Phil Mickelson (World No. 10) is the favorite to win this week despite a five year hiatus from the Byron Nelson.
“Phil the Thrill” has finished in the top-10 four times in his last eight events and hopes to cap off a magnificent World Golf Hall of Fame induction last week with his second win of the season and 41st of his illustrious career.
Hot Tamales Or Soul Grapes?
Tiger Woods has not played the Byron Nelson Championship since 2005 when his PGA Tour record 142 consecutive tournaments without missing a cut came to an end.
The previous Tour consecutive cut streak record was held by none other than tournament host “Lord Byron” (113 events without a missed cut).
Historic Moments
In 1946 Ben Hogan defeats Herman Keiser and dubiously enters the record books with the highest winning score in tournament history (284, four-over).
In 1980 Tom Watson wins for the third consecutive time becoming the only four-time multiple winner in tournament history.
In 1981 Watson is nearly victorious for the fourth consecutive year but is turned away in a playoff by Bruce Lietzke.
In 2008 Australian Adam Scott rolls in a 49-foot birdie putt to defeat runner-up Ryan Moore on the third playoff hole.
In 2010 on sponsor’s exemption 16 year-old Jordan Spieth becomes the youngest player in tournament history to play in the event and goes on to finish 16th overall.
A Course Worth Playing For I Have Decreed It!
TPC Four Seasons got the David Feherty “?#@*%! up” stamp of approval in his 2010 Sports Illustrated article about PGA Tour greenskeepers. “A course worth playing for I have decreed it,” quipped the quick-witted GolfChannel host.
Small lakes, rolling fairways, and indigenous oak and mesquite trees make TPC Four Seasons is an attractive course. And its extensive bunkers (68) and formidable length (7,166 yards) also make it a challenging one.
But the story at TPC Four Seasons is the greens (and the main reason the course ranked fifth in difficulty in 2011) and more precisely approach shots into them.
Players must absolutely target specific areas on the greens rather than aim for the flags because of abrupt and extreme green undulations. Good shots will use the slopes to funnel the ball towards the hole for manageable birdie attempts. Poor shots will hit the greens but roll off.
And with a stimpmeter of 11 feet (Augusta National generally runs 12 feet), as Feherty says, TPC Four Seasons has managed to “ensure the almost impossible balance between keeping [the greens] alive yet firm enough to putt.”
The Greek Syndicate
It’s a cherished pastime of ancient Greeks to gamble. In fact some accounts say Greeks are the forerunners of gambling.
Whatever the case may be, it’s in my blood and it was only a matter of time before I rolled the dice on the PGA Tour.
I’m putting my money where my mouth is this week. A good week and I’ll be packing my bags for San Francisco and the U.S. Open a little early.
A bad one and I’m barricading myself inside, not answering the door, telephone, or emails until my flute nymph says it’s safe to see daylight.
Histories, streaks, and stats, I’ve passed the point of no return.
Top-25
Mickelson (11/1)
Phil’s the favorite to win this week and owns a lower scoring average (67.5) in this tournament than anyone in the field for the past five years.
The problem is Lefty has only played one time here in that time period.
“The Nelson” will be Mickelson’s third consecutive event played (T-26 at the Wells Fargo Championship two weeks ago and T-25 at The PLAYERS last week).
And the last time Lefty put three in a row together he finished T-4 at the Shell Houston Open (after a T-43 at the WGC-Cadillac Championship and T-24 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational).
However “Fairway Phil” is ranked 129th on Tour in driving accuracy (57.44) and that’s going to make it extremely difficult for him to hit his spots on approach to the slippery Four Seasons greens.
Despite Mickelson’s much improved putting (ranked 28th on Tour in putting average) which has been key to his success this season, Phil won’t contend this week.
Johnson Wagner (45/1)
Wagner’s victory at the Sony Open and four top-10s are impressive. But most of those came very early in the season.
His past four events have resulted in two missed cuts and finishes of T-65 at Wells Fargo and T-35 at The Players.
I’ve got Wagner sneaking in the top-25 this week based purely on his (68.89 percent) greens-in-regulation (good for 18th on Tour) and T-12 finish here in 2010.
Top-10
Kuchar (12/1)
No one’s hotter than Kuchar coming in. And he ranks fourth in bogey avoidance, eighth in scrambling, and 24th in driving accuracy, all of which will be important this week in Dallas.
Kuchar finished T-6 here last year after three finishes outside the top-35 the previous three years.
There’s no reason to not pick Kuchar to win.
Except that it’s been nearly impossible to win multiple times so far this season and putting back-to-back victories together seems even more improbable.
Ernie Els (30/1)
Like Mickelson Els hasn’t played here in five years. However he’s finished inside the top-15 the last four times he’s played here.
Els has three top-5 finishes in his past six events this season. But two missed cuts in his past three.
It all depends on which Els shows up. The one who went 68-67 the final two days at the Zurich Classic to finish in second place? Or the one who shot 74-74 to miss the cut at The Players?
I’m betting on Els 69.5 scoring average over the past five weeks (which is tops in the Four Seasons field).
Top-5
Oosthuizen (22/1)
A missed cut at The Players was very disappointing.
But Oosthuizen was impressive finishing second at The Masters and third at the Shell Houston in his prior Tour events. He also picked up a victory at the Malaysian Open on the European Tour
Oosthuizen’s fifth in total driving, seventh in ball striking, 14th in birdie or better conversion, and 15th in GIR. A recipe for contention at TPC Four Seasons.
D.A. Points (60/1)
Points has the third best scoring average here of all the players in the field for the past five Nelson events (68.75). And he finished T-7 here in 2010 and 3rd in 2009.
Points also has the third best scoring average on Tour over the past five weeks of the 2012 season (70.17).
The only thing that might keep Points outside the top-5 is his putting. T-111 in putting average (1.78) will be a concern if he doesn’t stick his approach shots close.
Outside Top-25
Bradley (18/1)
Bradley is slumping hard. No top-25s in his past four events.
Carl Pettersson (30/1)
Pettersson is coming off an impressive T-10 finish at The Players with seven one-putts in the final round. He finished T-4 here in 2008.
Pettersson’s third in putting average, 12th in strokes gained putting and 22nd in bogey avoidance on Tour.
But I sense a letdown for the Swede this week.
Missed Cut
Adam Scott (14/1)
Scott won here in 2008 but has only played in 5 events this season. Fifth in GIR will help his cause but he simply hasn’t played enough to not be rusty.
Ryan Palmer (45/1)
Palmer has missed the cut four of the last five times he’s played here.
Winner
Jason Day (22/1)
Two of the last three events have been tough going for Day with a WD at The Masters and a missed cut last week at The Players.
“It fuels the hunger,” Day said of his performance last week.
He won here in 2010 and finished in fifth place in 2011. He clearly likes the course and can go low here (evidenced by his second round 65 in 2010 and final round 67 in 2011).
Day picks up his second career Tour win this week.
Gripping Groups
Johnson Wagner, Y.E. Yang, Charles Howell III
Danny Lee, Edward Loar, Patrick Reed
Phil Mickelson, Adam Scott, Ernie Els
Jason Dufner, Jhonattan Vegas, Louis Ooshuizen
Matt Kuchar, Vijay Singh, Padraig Harrington
Keegan Bradley, Rory Sabbatini, Jason Day
Derek Lamley, John Rollins, Justin Leonard
Harrison Frazar. D.A. Points, Ryan Palmer
Lord Byron
If ever there was a player worthy of having a tournament named after him it’s the gentlemanly Byron Nelson (passed away in 2006). And the Byron Nelson Championship was the first PGA Tour event to be named after a professional golfer.
“This tournament is the best thing that’s ever happened to me in golf,” Byron once said. “Better than winning the Masters or the U.S. Open or eleven in a row; because it helps people.”
The tournament has raised over $121M in total charitable giving since its inception.
“Lord Byron” is sixth all time in total wins on the PGA Tour (52) including five majors. And his 1945 season remains arguably the best single season in the history of the PGA Tour. 18 wins, with 11 coming consecutively (and margins of victory were routinely in the double figures).
Only three others players have consecutive win streaks of four or more: Ben Hogan (six consecutive), Jackie Burke (four consecutive) and Tiger Woods (seven consecutive).
Byron was awarded the Congressional Gold Medal in 1974 (the highest honor given to U.S. citizen) and his kindness, dedication, and awe-inspiring accomplishments (both on and off the course) will forever remain one of the greatest legacies the game has ever known.
Notes
Prior to last years Byron Nelson Championship a severe Tuesday evening hail storm wrecked havoc on TPC Four Seasons pummeling the greens with more than 4,000 divots (some the size of baseballs) forcing Four Seasons employees to evacuate.
“The Other Rory” Sabbatini set the tournament scoring record (261) with his win here in 2009.
To the victor go the spoils. The winner picks up a cool $1.17M (of the $6.5M purse) and 500 FedExCup points.
Television Coverage
Thursday and Friday: Golf Channel 3 – 6 p.m. EST
Saturday and Sunday: NBC 3 – 6 p.m. EST
Radio Coverage
Thursday through Sunday: SiriusXM Satellite Radio 12 – 6 p.m. EST
Odds
Odds provided by Las Vegas PGA Tour Golf Betting Odds
Follow Pete on twitter @TheGreekGrind
Click here for more discussion in the “Tour Talk” forum.
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Morning 9: Tiger confirms playing schedule | Player: This caused Tiger’s downfall
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Tour Photo Galleries
Photos from the 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
GolfWRX is on site this week in McKinney, Texas, at the 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson (FKA the AT&T Byron Nelson).
Last year at TPC Craig Ranch, Jason Day ended a five-year winless streak. J-Day is in the field again, as are Jordan Spieth, Tom Kim, and Will Zalatoris.
We have our usual assortment of general galleries, WITBs, and pullout albums for your perusal. As always, we’ll continue to add links to additional albums as they make their way to us from the Lone Star State.
Check out links to all our photos below.
General Albums
- 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson – Monday #1
- 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson – Monday #2
- 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson – Tuesday #1
- 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson – Tuesday #2
- 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson – Tuesday #3
WITB Albums
- Pierceson Coody – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Kris Kim – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- David Nyfjall – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Adrien Dumont de Chassart – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Jarred Jetter – North Texas PGA Section Champ – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Richy Werenski – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Wesley Bryan – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Parker Coody – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Peter Kuest – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Blaine Hale, Jr. – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Kelly Kraft – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Rico Hoey – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
Pullout Albums
- Adam Scott’s 2 new custom L.A.B. Golf putters – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Scotty Cameron putters – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Ben Griffin playing Maxfli golf ball
See what GolfWRXers are saying in the forums.
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News
Vincenzi’s 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson betting preview: International talent to shine
As anticipation mounts for the 2024 PGA Championship at Valhalla in a few weeks, the PGA Tour makes a pit stop in McKinney, Texas to play The CJ CUP Byron Nelson.
Last year was the third time TPC Craig Ranch hosted the Byron Nelson. Prior to 2021, the event was held at Trinity Forest Golf Club in Dallas.
TPC Craig Ranch is a 7,414-yard par-71 that features Bentgrass greens. The event historically plays relatively easy, and that has remained the case in the three editions at TPC Craig Ranch.
The course structure may provide some additional intrigue with the par-3 17th featuring a stadium setup called “Ranch 17” which is reminiscent of the 16th hole at TPC Scottsdale. The course also has both long and difficult par-4s mixed with drivable par-4s, which should create some exciting moments.
There are 156 golfers in the field this week, and many stars will be taking the week off to prepare for 2023’s second major championship in a few weeks and a “signature event” at Quail Hollow next week. Notable players in the field include Jordan Spieth, Jason Day, Sungjae Im, Stephan Jaeger, Tom Kim, Si Woo Kim, Min Woo Lee, Alex Noren, Adam Scott and Will Zalatoris.
Past Winners of the AT&T Byron Nelson
- 2023: Jason Day (-23 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2022: K.H. Lee (-26 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2021: K.H. Lee (-25 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2019: Sung Kang (-23)
- 2018: Aaron Wise (-23)
- 2017: Billy Horschel (-12)
- 2016: Sergio Garcia (-15)
- 2015: Steven Bowditch (-18)
Key Stats at TPC Craig Ranch
Let’s take a look at five key metrics for TPC Craig Ranch to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Approach remains the best measure of current form.
Hot iron play will be at a premium this week. Last year, Jason Day gained 6.4 strokes on approach, which was fourth in the field. In 2022, K.H. Lee was ninth in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining 5.2 strokes. In his 2021 victory, he was second in the field and gained 8.3 strokes on the field in the category.
Strokes Gaines: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds
- Tom Hoge (+1.12)
- Keith Mitchell (+1.02)
- Henrik Norlander (+0.99)
- Ryan Moore (+0.98)
- Ben Martin (0.80)
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Fairways are wide at TPC Craig Ranch.
Distance will certainly be helpful, and there aren’t too many difficult holes on the course. Golfers who put themselves in position off of the tee this week should have a sizable advantage.
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Over Past 24 Rounds
- Peter Kuest (+0.93)
- Kevin Daugherty (+0.91)
- Alejandro Tosti (+0.83)
- Keith Mitchell (+0.82)
- Kevin Tway (+0.74)
Birdie or Better %
There aren’t many hazards on the course, and all of the par-5s should be reachable in two for the majority of the players in the field. I am anticipating a birdie fest, and this statistic should be helpful in finding the birdie-makers.
Birdie or Better % Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Wesley Bryan (31%)
- Kelly Kraft (26.2%)
- Peter Kuest (25.9%)
- Matti Schmid (25.7%
- Jimmy Stanger (25.2%)
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
Many golfers on TOUR have some major putting surface variance in their statistics and prefer Bentgrass to other surfaces.
Bentgrass is common in Texas, and we often see golfers who play well in Texas continue to do so, finding a great feel around the greens.
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass) Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Maverick McNealy (+0.92)
- Aaron Baddeley (+0.87)
- Callum Tarren (+0.86)
- Harry Hall (+0.81)
- Nick Hardy (+0.69)
Course History
This statistic will tell us which players have performed the best at TPC Craig Ranch over the past three seasons.
Course History Over Past 12 Rounds:
- Jordan Spieth (+2.69)
- K.H. Lee (+2.59)
- Seamus Power (+1.84)
- Ryan Palmer (+1.76)
- Adam Scott (+1.72)
CJ CUP Byron Nelson Model Rankings
Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: OTT (24%), Birdie or Better % (18%), Course History (17%) and SG: Putting Bentgrass (16%).
- Alex Noren
- Adam Scott
- Keith Mitchell
- Si Woo Kim
- Stephen Jaeger
- Jordan Spieth
- Jhonnatan Vegas
- Nate Lashley
- Brice Garnett
- Tom Hoge
2024 CJ CUP Byron Nelson Picks
Byeong Hun An +3000 (DraftKings)
Byeong Hun put together an excellent performance at The Masters, finishing T16, which ties his best ever finish at a major championship (also T16 at 2019 U.S. Open). The South Korean gained 9.16 strokes from tee to green, which ranked 2nd in the field behind only the champion, Scottie Scheffler.
An’s next start at Harbour Town didn’t go as well (67th), but he still had a fantastic ball striking week. The 32-year-old bled strokes both around and on the greens, which was his eventual undoing. In his past three starts, An has gained significant strokes on the field both off the tee and on approach.
Benny had a strong start at last year’s Byron Nelson, finishing in a tie for 14th. With limited challenges on the course, he shouldn’t have to do much scrambling. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 17th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 17th in the field in birdie or better percentage. The putter is up and down per usual, but his ceiling putting weeks with his LAB Golf putter in 2024 are higher than they’ve been in past seasons.
An is starting to become my “white whale” of the PGA Tour, but I believe in his talent and TPC Craig Ranch is a course that should suit his excellent tee to green play.
Mackenzie Hughes +5500 (FanDuel)
Mackenzie Hughes is quietly putting together a very good season. He finished in a tie for 3rd at the Valspar Championship and followed that up with a T14 at the Texas Children’s Houston Open.
In his past 36 rounds in Texas, the Canadian ranks 5th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total. Last year, he finished in a tie for 14th at this event and gained strokes putting and off the tee. Mackenzie played well that week despite being in extremely poor form. He missed two cuts in a row prior to the event, and four consecutive cuts immediately after. His irons were off that week, but in 2024, we’ve seen an improvement in Hughes’ approach game. He now comes to the event playing some steady golf. He’s gained strokes on approach in four of his past five events and is hitting the ball very well from tee to green.
Hughes has two victories on the PGA Tour, both coming in relatively low-scoring affairs (-17 in each). He will need to go a bit deeper to win the CJ Cup Byron Nelson but has the type of putter that can keep pace in a birdie barrage.
Seamus Power +7000 (FanDuel)
After struggling over the past few seasons with injuries, Seamus Power seems as if he is rounding back into the form that made him a really consistent player on the PGA Tour.
Power finished T12 in his most recent start at the RBC Heritage, which is encouraging considering it was a “signature event” with a very strong field. For the week, the Irishman gained 4.4 strokes on approach and 2.8 strokes putting, which is the combination he’s used in the past to contend on Tour.
In his three trips to TPC Craig Ranch, Power is yet to finish outside of the top-20, with his best finish being a T9 in 2019. He ranks 4th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course. The 37-year-old thrives on easy tracks and has won in 2021 (Barbasol Championship) and 2022 (Butterfield Bermuda) on easier layouts with weaker fields.
Power has the game to go extremely low and I believe he can get back in the winner’s circle for the third time in four years.
Chan Kim +10000 (FanDuel)
Chan Kim has been striking the ball beautifully this season and is a proven winner with two wins on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2023 as well as eight career Japan Tour wins.
At last week’s Zurich Classic, Kim and his partner Doug Ghim finished in a tie for 28th. Prior to that, the South Korean T14 at the Valero Texas Open and T6 at the Corales Puntacana Championship. His success this season in Texas as well as he propensity to play his best golf on the PGA Tour’s easier courses make him and ideal fit for TPC Craig Ranch.
2024 has given plenty of longshot winners on the PGA Tour, and with a birdie fest like this, I believe there’s a strong chance we get another this week in McKinney, Texas.
Alejandro Tosti +10000 (FanDuel)
Alejandro Tosti is one of the most polarizing players on the PGA Tour thus far in the 2024 season. His antics can rub many the wrong way, but he’s shown on a few occasions that he has what it takes to compete in Tour events.
This season, Tosti has been elite off the tee. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 2nd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. The Argentine hits it long and straight, which works at any course on earth. He got a taste of contention a few starts ago at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, finishing in a tie for 2nd place.
Tosti had a fantastic year in 2023 on the Korn Ferry Tour, where going low is a prerequisite to success. If this turns to a shootout, which it likely will, the 27-year-old has the ability to set the pace. Tosti will look to become the second Argentine to win in Texas in the past two seasons after Emiliano Grillo emerged victorious at last year’s Charles Schwab Challenge.
C.T. Pan +15000 (FanDuel)
Outside of a T3 at the Mexico Open, C.T. Pan doesn’t have strong results this season in terms of finishes. However, over his past two starts, Pan’s iron play has come alive. At The Players, he gained 6.6 strokes on approach. At the Valero Texas Open, he gained 3.7. At last week’s Zurich Classic, Pan and his partner Kevin Yu finished T28. For a player who can get extremely hot with his scoring clubs, I believe he’s playing better than the results have shown over the past month or so.
Last season, Pan finished 4th at TPC Craig Ranch and was spectacular across all the major stat categories. In his past 36 qualifying rounds, he ranks 16th in Strokes Gained: Total in Texas.
Pan has won on the PGA Tour at the RBC Heritage and is always a player that I believe has what it takes to win on a Sunday if he finds himself in contention.
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Chippster
May 18, 2012 at 9:59 am
It’s easy to forget what a great golfer Byron Nelson was. Byron is remembered as a kindly old gentleman because he was one for such a long time; he lived to a ripe old age. But, he was a fierce competitor, tiger-esque in his capabilities. For example, he would hit flagsticks with his approach shots regularly, up to six and on multiple occasions. Tom Watson and Jack Nicklaus have made similar statements about Byron’s ball striking ability. Also, look up his record against Ben Hogan. It might surprise you about who dominated who.
You often read about who is the greatest golfer of all time, Jack or Tiger. But when you take an encompassing look at all the qualities that make up a champion, I’ll take Byron every time.