Opinion & Analysis

10 Players Who Will Rise (or Fall) in 2015

Published

10 years ago

Oct 8, 2014

Before last season, I ran through the players that were projected to rise and decline in the 2013-2014 season. With the start of the 2014-2015 season coming this week, I wanted to go through the projections. The rankings in the tables below are based out of 177 players.

PLAYERS ON THE RISE

BILLY HURLEY III

One of the things I established a few years ago with my research was the idea of what I call The Four Cornerstones of the game. Recently, I altered the 4 cornerstones of the game just slightly:

Driving Effectiveness
Red Zone play (shots from 175-225 yards)
Shots from 10-20 yards
Make Percentage from 3-15 feet

Hurley achieved all of those 4 cornerstones of the game. Not only do the 4 cornerstones have a strong correlation to success on Tour, but they also have correlated strongly to getting a Tour victory, soon. Ben Curtis achieved the 4 cornerstones in 2011 despite only finishing 133rd on the Money List went on to win the next season at the Valero Texas Open. Matt Jones accomplished the 4 cornerstones in 2013 and finished 48th on the Money List and then went on to win at Houston this past season.

Hurley accomplished all of the 4 cornerstones last season and finished 91st on the Money List. He does not hit it that far and that may hold him back a little, along with having a below average Purse Size per Event played.

BRIAN STUARD

Stuard is much like Hurley in that he accomplished the 4 cornerstones last season and does not hit it far. However, he is a much better birdie maker (41st) than Hurley (157th), but has gotten off to slow starts in rounds 1 and 2. If he can improve his play in rounds 1 and 2, he is projected to have a great season.

TROY MERRITT

Merritt’s ball striking metrics were very impressive, but he struggled a bit from 10-20 yards and on putts outside 15 feet. The putting from outside 15 feet should progress toward the mean according to PGA Tour trends.

PAUL CASEY

Casey started to make a comeback after numerous injuries. He was actually an even better putter prior to his injuries than he is now, which is still pretty good. The big issue for Casey is his driving, but I could see him winning an event where the course is pretty wide open and receptive to very errant tee shots.

RUSSELL KNOX

The strength of Knox’s game in his short career has been his ballstriking and that allowed him to rank 28th in Adjusted Par-4 Scoring Average and 5th in Bogey Avoidance, which are the two key scoring metrics. He was also very good in rounds before the cut, ranking 40th in Adjusted Round 1 and 12th in Adjusted Round 2 Scoring Averages.

He now is now very good on Short Game shots from 10-to-20 yards. The only thing that is lagging behind is his putting. But, Knox is an AimPoint user and the trend with AimPoint users on Tour is that they typically see major improvements in their putting statistics after 3-to-12 months of using the green reading methodology.

Honorable Mention: Robert Garrigus, Brooks Koepka, Robert Streb, Jhonattan Vegas and Nick Watney

PLAYERS ON THE DECLINE

JONAS BLIXT

I picked Blixt last season and outside of a 2nd place finish at the Masters he did not record any other top-10 finishes. That will earn him a second invite to Augusta, but his exemption to Doral and Firestone will run out and I don’t believe he will be eligible for the Accenture Match Play.

His putting regressed a bit as I projected last year as he finished 33rd in Strokes Gained – Putting, but a large part of finishing even that well in Strokes Gained – Putting came from his ability to make putts from longer than 15 feet. The definitive trend on Tour is for a player that makes a lot of putts outside 15 feet to eventually regress toward the mean and that should affect his effectiveness on the greens. His short game also regressed this past season, but those are of secondary importance if he cannot improve his ball striking to a serviceable level.

RORY SABBATINI

Sabbatini’s strengths of his game over the years has been his Yellow Zone play and Short Game play. Strong players from the Yellow Zone tend to make more Birdies on the par-4’s, and the short game play typically cleans up any mistakes and can save par. That is how Sabbatini has been so successful over the years.

Scoring wise he ranked 151st in Adjusted Par-4 Scoring Average and 153rd in Bogey Rate which are two critical scoring metrics on Tour. While he is still better than average from the Yellow Zone and on shots from 10-to-20 yards, his performance in those categories has taken a noticeable dip as of late. He is also seeing a dip in his club head speed of about 2 mph. That may not sound like much, but on Tour the dip in club head speed does not have to be very much for it to have a strong trend toward a regression in the player’s performance.

MATT JONES

Last season I had Jones as my projected players to rise and he ended up winning at Houston. The best indicator of a player’s iron skill are shots from the fairway/tee box. Jones fell from 96th to 150th in 2014, so his iron play completely fell apart and his play from 10-to-20 yards regressed as well going from 19th in 2013 to 150th in 2013-2014.

If a player cannot find greens and cannot save pars when they miss greens, it’s a recipe for disaster. Furthermore, he gained a large portion of his strokes on the green from his putting outside 15 feet. That should regress towards the mean in 2014-2015, which means a regression in his total Strokes Gained – Putting metric.

Jones benefited from the favorable schedule last season where he was playing a much higher Purse Size per Event than Strength of Schedule. His Purse Size per Event should still be fairly high coming off the victory at Houston, but the strength of schedule should get more difficult as well and he will have a more difficult time making cuts if he continues to perform at the same rate.

BRENDON TODD

Todd had a fantastic season in 2013-2014. He was an adept putter of the ball that performed well from the Yellow Zone. Typically, good Yellow Zone performers make more birdies regardless of their putting skill. They are hitting the ball closer to the cup on the major of approach shots on the par-4’s and increasing their likelihood of making their putts. However, Todd was more of a grinder as he ranked 21st in Bogey Avoidance while ranking 70th in Birdie Rate. There is a downward trend in performance for players like Todd that fail to make a lot of birdies despite performing well from the Yellow Zone and with the putter.

We can also see Todd’s performance in 2013-2014 from the Red Zone and with the putter. The Red Zone performance declined over time while the Putter caught fire as the season progressed:

For the most part, Todd’s play from the Red Zone regressed significantly. The black slanted line is the ‘trend line’ which shows that Todd’s performance from the Red Zone was on a fairly steep decline. Meanwhile, his putting caught fire outside of the stretch of four events towards the end of his career. The past data of players that regress with their Red Zone play and catch fire with the putter is to regress significantly in the following season.

Todd will be exempt from every event this season outside of the Accenture Match Play. That will provide him a very favorable schedule where he is playing in large purse events and that should be enough for him to stay well within the top-125 on the Money List, but the trend shows that his Adjusted Scoring Average should get significantly worse and could lead to a lackluster season.

ERIK COMPTON

Normally, 80 percent of a Tour player’s earnings come from 20 percent of their events. Compton saw 87.4 percent of his earnings come from 20 percent of his events this past season. When the earnings percentage gets to 90 percent it indicates that the player did not play very well outside of one event which is what happened for Compton at Pinehurst.

The good news for Compton is that he did rank 90th in Adjusted Scoring Average, and he will continue to have a better than average Purse Size per Event as he is exempt from both the U.S. Open and the Masters. His struggles striking the ball and his drop in club head speed by about 2 mph, however, it is right in line with traditional regressions in performance on Tour.

Honorable Mention: K.J. Choi, Matt Every, Russell Henley, Charles Howell III and Scott Stallings

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s LIV Golf Singapore betting preview: Course specialist ready to thrive once again

Published

4 days ago

Apr 30, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

After another strong showing in Australia, LIV Golf will head to Sentosa Golf Club in Singapore looking to build off of what was undoubtedly their best event to date.

Sentosa Golf Club sits on the southern tip of Singapore and is one of the most beautiful courses in the world. The course is more than just incredible scenically; it was also rated 55th in Golf Digest’s top-100 courses in 2022-2023 and has been consistently regarded as one of the best courses in Asia. Prior to being part of the LIV rotation, the course hosted the Singapore Open every year since 2005.

Sentosa Golf Club is a par 71 measuring 7,406 yards. The course will require precise ball striking and some length off the tee. It’s possible to go low due to the pristine conditions, but there are also plenty of hazards and difficult spots on the course that can bring double bogey into play in a hurry. The Bermudagrass greens are perfectly manicured, and the course has spent millions on the sub-air system to keep the greens rolling fast. I spoke to Asian Tour player, Travis Smyth, who described the greens as “the best [he’s] ever played.”

Davis Love III, who competed in a Singapore Open in 2019, also gushed over the condition of the golf course.

“I love the greens. They are fabulous,” the 21-time PGA Tour winner said.

Love III also spoke about other aspects of the golf course.

“The greens are great; the fairways are perfect. It is a wonderful course, and it’s tricky off the tee.”

“It’s a long golf course, and you get some long iron shots. It takes somebody hitting it great to hit every green even though they are big.”

As Love III said, the course can be difficult off the tee due to the length of the course and the trouble looming around every corner. It will take a terrific ball striking week to win at Sentosa Golf Club.

In his pre-tournament press conference last season, Phil Mickelson echoed many of the same sentiments.

“To play Sentosa effectively, you’re going to have a lot of shots from 160 to 210, a lot of full 6-, 7-, 8-iron shots, and you need to hit those really well and you need to drive the ball well.”

Golfers who excel from tee to green and can dial in their longer irons will have a massive advantage this week.

Stat Leaders at LIV Golf Adelaide:

Fairways Hit

1.) Louis Oosthuizen

2.) Anirban Lahiri

3.) Jon Rahm

4.) Brendan Steele

5.) Cameron Tringale

Greens in Regulation

1.) Brooks Koepka

2.) Brendan Steele

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Cameron Tringale

5.) Anirban Lahiri

Birdies Made

1.) Brendan Steele

2.) Dean Burmester

3.) Thomas Pieters

4.) Patrick Reed

5.) Carlos Ortiz

LIV Golf Individual Standings:

1.) Joaquin Niemann

2.) Jon Rahm

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Louis Oosthuizen

5.) Abraham Ancer

LIV Golf Team Standings:

1.) Crushers

2.) Legion XIII

3.) Torque

4.) Stinger GC

5.) Ripper GC

LIV Golf Singapore Picks

Sergio Garcia +3000 (DraftKings)

Sergio Garcia is no stranger to Sentosa Golf Club. The Spaniard won the Singapore Open in 2018 by five strokes and lost in a playoff at LIV Singapore last year to scorching hot Talor Gooch. Looking at the course setup, it’s no surprise that a player like Sergio has played incredible golf here. He’s long off the tee and is one of the better long iron players in the world when he’s in form. Garcia is also statistically a much better putter on Bermudagrass than he is on other putting surfaces. He’s putt extremely well on Sentosa’s incredibly pure green complexes.

This season, Garcia has two runner-up finishes, both of them being playoff losses. Both El Camaleon and Doral are courses he’s had success at in his career. The Spaniard is a player who plays well at his tracks, and Sentosa is one of them. I believe Sergio will get himself in the mix this week. Hopefully the third time is a charm in Singapore.

Paul Casey +3300 (FanDuel)

Paul Casey is in the midst of one of his best seasons in the five years or so. The results recently have been up and down, but he’s shown that when he’s on a golf course that suits his game, he’s amongst the contenders.

This season, Casey has finishes of T5 (LIV Las Vegas), T2 (LIV Hong Kong), and a 6th at the Singapore Classic on the DP World Tour. At his best, the Englishman is one of the best long iron players in the world, which makes him a strong fit for Sentosa. Despite being in poor form last season, he was able to fire a Sunday 63, which shows he can low here at the course.

It’s been three years since Casey has won a tournament (Omega Dubai Desert Classic in 2021), but he’s been one of the top players on LIV this season and I think he can get it done at some point this season.

Mito Pereira +5000 (Bet365)

Since Mito Pereira’s unfortunate demise at the 2022 PGA Championship, he’s been extremely inconsistent. However, over the past few months, the Chilean has played well on the International Series as well as his most recent LIV start. Mito finished 8th at LIV Adelaide, which was his best LIV finish this season.

Last year, Pereira finished 5th at LIV Singapore, shooting fantastic rounds of 67-66-66. It makes sense why Mito would like Sentosa, as preeminent ball strikers tend to rise to the challenge of the golf course. He’s a great long iron player who is long and straight off the tee.

Mito has some experience playing in Asia and is one of the most talented players on LIV who’s yet to get in the winner’s circle. I have questions about whether or not he can come through once in contention, but if he gets there, I’m happy to roll the dice.

Andy Ogletree +15000 (DraftKings)

Andy Ogletree is a player I expected to have a strong 2024 but struggled early in his first full season on LIV. After failing to crack the top-25 in any LIV event this year, the former U.S. Amateur champion finally figured things out, finished in a tie for 3rd at LIV Adelaide.

Ogletree should be incredible comfortable playing in Singapore. He won the International Series Qatar last year and finished T3 at the International Series Singapore. The 26-year-old was arguably the best player on the Asian Tour in 2023 and has been fantastic in the continent over the past 18 months.

If Ogletree has indeed found form, he looks to be an amazing value at triple-digit odds.

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Lessons from the worst golf instructor in America

Published

4 days ago

Apr 30, 2024

Brendan Ryan

In Tampa, there is a golf course that boasts carts that do not work, a water range, and a group of players none of which have any chance to break 80. The course is overseen by a staff of crusty men who have succeeded at nothing in life but ending up at the worst-run course in America. However, this place is no failure. With several other local courses going out of business — and boasting outstanding greens — the place is booked full.

While I came for the great greens, I stayed to watch our resident instructor; a poor-tempered, method teacher who caters to the hopeless. At first, it was simply hilarious. However, after months of listening and watching, something clicked. I realized I had a front-row seat to the worst golf instructor in America.

Here are some of my key takeaways.

Method Teacher

It is widely accepted that there are three types of golf instructors: system teachers, non-system teachers, and method teachers. Method teachers prescribe the same antidote for each student based on a preamble which teachers can learn in a couple day certification.

Method teaching allows anyone to be certified. This process caters to the lowest caliber instructor, creating the illusion of competency. This empowers these underqualified instructors with the moniker of “certified” to prey on the innocent and uninformed.

The Cult of Stack and Jilt

The Stack and Tilt website proudly boasts, “A golfer swings his hands inward in the backswing as opposed to straight back to 1) create power, similar to a field goal kicker moving his leg in an arc and 2) to promote a swing that is in-to-out, which produces a draw (and eliminates a slice).”

Now, let me tell you something, there is this law of the universe which says “energy can either be created or destroyed,” so either these guys are defying physics or they have no idea what they are taking about. Further, the idea that the first move of the backswing determines impact is conjecture with a splash of utter fantasy.

These are the pontifications of a method — a set of prescriptions applied to everyone with the hope of some success through the placebo effect. It is one thing for a naive student to believe, for a golf instructor to drink and then dispel this Kool-Aid is malpractice.

Fooled by Randomness

In flipping a coin, or even a March Madness bet, there is a 50-50 chance of success. In golf, especially for new players, results are asymmetric. Simply put: Anything can happen. The problem is that when bad instructors work with high handicappers, each and every shot gets its own diagnosis and prescription. Soon the student is overwhelmed.

Now here’s the sinister thing: The overwhelming information is by design. In this case, the coach is not trying to make you better, they are trying to make you reliant on them for information. A quasi Stockholm syndrome of codependency.

Practice

One of the most important scientists of the 20th century was Ivan Pavlov. As you might recall, he found that animals, including humans, could be conditioned into biological responses. In golf, the idea of practice has made millions of hackers salivate that they are one lesson or practice session from “the secret.”

Sunk Cost

The idea for the worst golf instructor is to create control and dependency so that clients ignore the sunk cost of not getting better. Instead, they are held hostage by the idea that they are one lesson or tip away from unlocking their potential.

Cliches

Cliches have the effect of terminating thoughts. However, they are the weapon of choice for this instructor. Add some hyperbole and students actually get no information. As a result, these players couldn’t play golf. When they did, they had no real scheme. With no idea what they are doing, they would descend into a spiral of no idea what to do, bad results, lower confidence, and running back to the lesson tee from more cliches.

The fact is that poor instruction is about conditioning players to become reliant members of your cult. To take away autonomy. To use practice as a form of control. To sell more golf lessons not by making people better but through the guise that without the teacher, the student can never reach their full potential. All under the umbrella of being “certified” (in a 2-day course!) and a melee of cliches.

This of course is not just happening at my muni but is a systemic problem around the country and around the world, the consequences of which are giving people a great reason to stop playing golf. But hey, at least it’s selling a lot of golf balls…

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

Published

2 weeks ago

Apr 22, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

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