We’re still more than three weeks away from the matches at Gleneagles, but the United States’ Ryder Cup hopes aren’t looking great.

The European squad is stacked at the top, with four of the world’s top five suiting it up for the home team in Scotland.

Then of course there’s the issue of recent Ryder Cup results, with the Euros capturing six of the last seven editions—including overcoming a 10-6 on American soil. And the European captain’s picks (announced earlier Tuesday) are a harrowing bunch. Lee Westwood isn’t the most inspired selection, but Stephen Gallacher has been a formidable competitor on the European Tour for the past few years and is enjoying a sensational 2014. And we don’t have to mention what Ian Poulter brings to the table (OK fine, 12 victories in his last 15 Ryder Cup matches).

If you’re starting to get visions of 2004 and 2006 right about now, hold back though. While the American squad boasts no top-five players (Patrick Reed doesn’t count), it does possess Nos. 7-11. The average world ranking of Europe’s nine automatic qualifiers is 12.9, with the U.S. close behind at 13.3. Taking away the influence of each team’s top-four, and Europe’s number rises to 20.6, with the Americans at 17.2. According to the World Rankings then, among the auto qualifiers the United States has a deeper squad.

Not all hope is lost then. U.S. Captain Tom Watson has some intriguing options for his three captain’s picks, which he will announce at 7 p.m. These three names could be the difference. Who do we expect old man Watson to take?

Here are our predictions.

Hunter Mahan

Probably a no-brainer at this point. All captains make recent form a heavy factor in their wild card criteria, but Watson seems especially bent on doing so. That’s great news for Mahan.

After what can only be described as a disappearing act the first seven months of the season, the 32-year-old has come on strong lately. Mahan finished 65-67 at the PGA Championship for a T7 showing, and two weeks later captured the Barclays title with a final-round 65.

Mahan did place a lackluster 64th at the Deutsche Bank Championship, but that should hardly matter considering his previous two performances.

And let’s not forget that Watson is also heavily slanted toward “the gut factor,” or players who rise to the occasion under final-round pressure. That Sunday at the Barclays looks awfully good for Mahan then.

Combine that with his excellent form and it would be a shock if he is kept off the squad.

Keegan Bradley

This pick was pretty much set in stone once Phil Mickelson automatically qualified. Lefty and his fiery young friend obliterated their Ryder Cup foes at Medinah in 2012, storming to a 3-0 record that included 7&6 and 4&3 victories.

That memory is probably impossible for Watson to ignore, especially with Mickelson showing flashes of his old self with his near win at the PGA Championship. Captains tend to search desperately for any point they can get, and with the Mickelson-Bradley combo showing no signs of fissure, the possibility of throwing away a potential of three or four points by breaking them up is a risk I bet Watson is not willing to commit to.

Bradley also has that “gut factor” in spades, with numerous clutch Sunday performances throughout his career (even if none of them are recent).

The only way Watson was going to omit Bradley was by way of extremely poor recent performance. The 27-year-old’s two top-16s in his last four starts throws away that caveat.

Without this significant dip, Bradley has stamped his spot on the squad.

Ryan Moore

To me, Watson’s third and final selection is the sole spot that really is up in the air. And it’s just a stab in the dark. So here’s mine.

Yes, Moore isn’t exactly a shining example of recent great form—Cut-73 in his last two starts, with no rounds in the 60s—which, as I mentioned, is a highly important criteria for Watson.

But the 64-year-old has never been afraid to go off the grid, and with the U.S. having the inferior squad, Watson knows that he must get the most out of his Captain’s picks. That means using at least one selection on a flyer—and that’s exactly what Moore is.

While his outward demeanor strikes him as a listless, apathetic character, Moore has expressed his desire to help out the squad. He’s secretly a competitive monster, and if you have any doubt about Moore’s “guts,” Nick Watney will quickly bash any of your fears to a pulp.

Moore may have the highest upside of the potential captain’s picks.

But overall I’m not in Watson’s head, so the Moore pick is just a hunch. The other candidates at this point seem to be Bill Haas, Billy Horschel, Ryan Palmer, Brandt Snedeker, Chris Kirk and Webb Simpson.

Haas has been playing well, but I don’t think he inspires Watson. Horschel’s chunked six-iron Monday probably sunk his chances. Palmer probably wasn’t much on Watson’s radar in the first place. Snedeker has been very underwhelming for months (at least Moore had a great stretch in June and July). Kirk is a lot better than people think, but Watson doesn’t seem to know a lot about him, and Kirk’s indifferent comments about his potential selection probably didn’t sit well. Simpson, no idea, just don’t think he’s going to make the cut.

Whatever the case, Watson better choose wisely, because the U.S. can’t afford any more disadvantages.