Opinion & Analysis

Why Sergio Garcia isn’t going to end his career without a major

Published

10 years ago

Aug 6, 2014

This summer has been an eventful one for Sergio Garcia. Three tournaments, three finishes of 13-under or better. He’s found peace and maturity in older age. And he might be engaged to a caddie who sports a 100 percent win rate on his bag.

Yep, two months of wildly successful times for the Serge…except a mop-headed punk keeps fortifying a brick wall that separates Garcia from his dreams.

The story of the summer has been The Rise of Rory McIlroy (Act III), as the 25-year-old Northern Irishman can’t seem to stop winning: The BMW PGA Championship, the Open Championship, the Bridgestone, they all come to him!

The latter two arrived at the expense of runner-up Garcia, who also temporarily destroyed a wedding ring around the same time he may have put one on his own girl’s finger.

For the 34-year-old, this has been a continuation of a career-long hex. Certainly the Spaniard’s 19 combined PGA and European Tour victories are nothing to sniff at. But he has seemed to get in his own way at times, and his major-less record remains an extraordinary cross to bear.

He’s risen to No. 3 in the world and still can’t get a major win. Heck, he produced some of his best professional golf in 2014 and has but one win to show for it.

Really, in one sense, Garcia’s 2014 serves as another confirmation that a major title will not be among his golfing accomplishments.

Yet on the eve of the PGA Championship, I defend the opposite tact. More than ever, I’m convinced Garcia will eventually hurl the major monkey off his back.

The caveats here are real, and I’ve already listed some above, but more sound affirmative reasons manifest themselves.

First, we must understand that Garcia’s 2014 campaign is not an aberration. Four years ago, a distraught and heartbroken Spaniard harbored thoughts of quitting the game amid poor form and the aftermath of a crushing breakup. He dropped as far as 85th in the world.

But the response to the wading period was robust. Garcia’s game began to re-emerge in the middle of 2011 and then bullied its way back to top billing with back-to-back victories (including a 11-shot triumph) in the fall.

That bumped him back up to 17th in the World Golf Rankings, a seven top-10, one-win 2012 steadied him at 16th and a nine top-10 campaign the next year mosied him to 10th. And Garcia’s 2014 has been beyond phenomenal. In 19 events, he boasts 10 top-10s and seven top-threes—many of which came in huge tournaments.

Garcia, then, returned to his world-class form four years ago and has put his game on a steady incline since. Based on this pattern, even accounting for a bit of regression in 2015, Garcia is in line to retain his world-class play for years ahead. And elite-level performance means more legitimate shots at majors.

Then there’s the specter of Garcia’s age. While the Spaniard’s stay in the professional game seems ancient, he is still just 34 years old. And that is a pretty good spot to be in for this sport. As the narrative goes, golfers tend to peak in their early- to mid-30s.

Initial analytics research into this field proves this theory. A comprehensive statistical look produced these findings: Golfers tend to peak from 29-to-34 and only start experiencing any significant decline around age 38. So, according to this information, maybe he’s already wasted some of his best years, but Garcia is afforded a few more seasons at or near his peak before his play is expected to drop off.

This graph is only a generality of the whole membership though. While the general aging curve suggests a sizable and consistent improvement for a player throughout his 20s and a holding pattern in the early part of his 30s, Garcia’s line of progress would be far different.

The Spaniard was already one of the world’s best players by 21, and largely remained there through age 28. Instead of a steadying rise in the 20s then, Garcia’s chart would show a rather flat line. And while the general professional golfer continues to improve (at a lesser rate) from 29-to-30, Garcia’s graph would see a significant dip. We’re already talking an extraordinarily different path from the norm.

What does this mean for Garcia’s future for winning majors though?

Well, instead of “the few great years left, then rapid decline” theory, I’d pose that Garcia not only retains his top-notch play for several years, but also produces better golf than he ever has.

The two biggest knocks against Sergio have been his poor mental game and his putting. On the first point, there is no shortage of articles detailing the stunning transformation of Garcia from insolent sap to enlightened optimist.

Some are skeptical of the truth behind these claims, and they are probably correct to question. With Garcia, the emotional tornado is never far below the surface, and we are only a year removed from the fried chicken firestorm.

Still, he’s no longer the guy prone to conspiracy theories involving unfair USGA-Tiger Woods cooperation or the wrath of the golf gods. There is some truth to the more peaceful existence Garcia feels in competition. The mental game is stronger than it used to be, even if the Sunday results haven’t bared that out yet.

As for putting, the improvement there is staggering. Garcia only once placed among the top 100 in strokes gained putting prior to 2012, but in his past three seasons shows up 26th, 8th and 15th. As GolfWRX’s own Rich Hunt noted in 2013, the trend was met by a decline Garcia’s tee-to-green play.

In his 2014 campaign though, Garcia has recovered his elite ball-striking ability, especially on approaches. He’s currently 4th in GIR and 9th in Proximity to the Hole, a combination that maybe nobody on the PGA Tour can beat.

What this all means is that Garcia has minimized or mastered his weaknesses, and never truly lost his strengths; they were just lying dormant. In essence, the Spaniard possesses more tools in his arsenal than ever and is in no danger of losing them. That puts him right in line to bring his game to a new peak, a peak that is unlikely not to yield a major championship.

The biggest reason for a Garcia major title though may have nothing to do with how good a golfer he is. The Spaniard is simply due for a turnaround in luck.

As much as we hem and haw about the massive difference between first and second place in major championships, many times the truth is somewhere in between. Ernie Els’ performance at the 2012 Open Championship was far from masterful, but he was holding the Claret Jug in the end. Meanwhile, Chris DiMarco produced a stunning 12-under total on a tough Augusta National track in 2005 and whipped the field by seven shots…except for Tiger Woods, who he lost to in a playoff.

Unfortunately for Garcia, his luck in major championships has always fallen on the DiMarco side of affairs. It’s long been posited that the Spaniard simply doesn’t have it in him to produce a major-title-worthy performance. He has runner-up-esque stuff, just not 72 holes of golf fit for a major winner.

Except that’s a complete myth. Three times Garcia nailed together major-winning title material only to be struck down by extraordinary performances or a stroke of poor luck. There was the infamous 2007 Open Championship where Garcia bemoaned the golf gods’ wrath against his major championship aspirations.

While more petulant than realistic, Garcia had a legitimate gripe–at least one on stroke. The fact is, he had an 8-footer to win the tournament, hit a good putt and it didn’t drop. Actually, despite not taking the correct break, the putt still caught easily enough lip to fall in (like this), but refused to cooperate.

The next year, Garcia began the final round of the PGA Championship three off the lead, shot a magnificent 68 on a brutal Oakland Hills layout but couldn’t close the gap to victory. What happened? Padraig Harrington put up a miraculous 66, holing ridiculous putt after ridiculous putt after ridiculous putt to crush his rival’s spirit. If Harrington doesn’t play out of his mind, Garcia likely holds a multiple shot lead heading into the closing holes while executing extremely good golf. He probably wins.

Finally we look back to last month. Maybe Royal Liverpool isn’t the toughest layout on the Open rota, but when the rough is up as it was in 2014, certainly 15-under is a solid winning score. Want proof? By all accounts, Rory McIlroy needed an incredible performance to shoot 17-under, just two better than the score indicated. Garcia of course managed that 15-under number, including a final-round 66, but did so the same week of McIlroy’s maestro showing.

All of this is to say that Garcia is more than capable of a major-title worthy display. He has done so three times with no trophies to show for it! Just because Garcia has experienced so much misfortune doesn’t mean he is due a gift win of the Els ilk. But if his luck is simply neutral, his fourth instance of trophy-caliber play will finally net him that elusive major crown.

Alan Shipnuck is one of the best golf writers on the planet, but I found a statement he made some weeks ago alarmingly off base. In Golf.com’s PGA Tour Confidential, he stated that the Open “felt a little bit like Sergio’s last stand.”

Hardly. It seemed more like a first stand of many in the coming years.

Garcia has years of consistently good form under his belt, appears poised for a career apex in subsequent campaigns and is bound to produce a victorious major performance that isn’t hijacked by some outside force.

Yes, McIlroy is in Garcia’s way, but the streaky Northern Irishman is only going to show up at a select few majors.

If you’ve already given up on Garcia, I would come back around. In 2012, Garcia himself (erroneously) agreed with you. Two years later, he is shooting 15-under at a major and is No. 3 in the world.

It could happen by this Sunday night, it may take another three years. Either way Garcia’s triumph will happen. And the only hole in his resume will be filled.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s LIV Golf Singapore betting preview: Course specialist ready to thrive once again

Published

4 days ago

Apr 30, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

After another strong showing in Australia, LIV Golf will head to Sentosa Golf Club in Singapore looking to build off of what was undoubtedly their best event to date.

Sentosa Golf Club sits on the southern tip of Singapore and is one of the most beautiful courses in the world. The course is more than just incredible scenically; it was also rated 55th in Golf Digest’s top-100 courses in 2022-2023 and has been consistently regarded as one of the best courses in Asia. Prior to being part of the LIV rotation, the course hosted the Singapore Open every year since 2005.

Sentosa Golf Club is a par 71 measuring 7,406 yards. The course will require precise ball striking and some length off the tee. It’s possible to go low due to the pristine conditions, but there are also plenty of hazards and difficult spots on the course that can bring double bogey into play in a hurry. The Bermudagrass greens are perfectly manicured, and the course has spent millions on the sub-air system to keep the greens rolling fast. I spoke to Asian Tour player, Travis Smyth, who described the greens as “the best [he’s] ever played.”

Davis Love III, who competed in a Singapore Open in 2019, also gushed over the condition of the golf course.

“I love the greens. They are fabulous,” the 21-time PGA Tour winner said.

Love III also spoke about other aspects of the golf course.

“The greens are great; the fairways are perfect. It is a wonderful course, and it’s tricky off the tee.”

“It’s a long golf course, and you get some long iron shots. It takes somebody hitting it great to hit every green even though they are big.”

As Love III said, the course can be difficult off the tee due to the length of the course and the trouble looming around every corner. It will take a terrific ball striking week to win at Sentosa Golf Club.

In his pre-tournament press conference last season, Phil Mickelson echoed many of the same sentiments.

“To play Sentosa effectively, you’re going to have a lot of shots from 160 to 210, a lot of full 6-, 7-, 8-iron shots, and you need to hit those really well and you need to drive the ball well.”

Golfers who excel from tee to green and can dial in their longer irons will have a massive advantage this week.

Stat Leaders at LIV Golf Adelaide:

Fairways Hit

1.) Louis Oosthuizen

2.) Anirban Lahiri

3.) Jon Rahm

4.) Brendan Steele

5.) Cameron Tringale

Greens in Regulation

1.) Brooks Koepka

2.) Brendan Steele

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Cameron Tringale

5.) Anirban Lahiri

Birdies Made

1.) Brendan Steele

2.) Dean Burmester

3.) Thomas Pieters

4.) Patrick Reed

5.) Carlos Ortiz

LIV Golf Individual Standings:

1.) Joaquin Niemann

2.) Jon Rahm

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Louis Oosthuizen

5.) Abraham Ancer

LIV Golf Team Standings:

1.) Crushers

2.) Legion XIII

3.) Torque

4.) Stinger GC

5.) Ripper GC

LIV Golf Singapore Picks

Sergio Garcia +3000 (DraftKings)

Sergio Garcia is no stranger to Sentosa Golf Club. The Spaniard won the Singapore Open in 2018 by five strokes and lost in a playoff at LIV Singapore last year to scorching hot Talor Gooch. Looking at the course setup, it’s no surprise that a player like Sergio has played incredible golf here. He’s long off the tee and is one of the better long iron players in the world when he’s in form. Garcia is also statistically a much better putter on Bermudagrass than he is on other putting surfaces. He’s putt extremely well on Sentosa’s incredibly pure green complexes.

This season, Garcia has two runner-up finishes, both of them being playoff losses. Both El Camaleon and Doral are courses he’s had success at in his career. The Spaniard is a player who plays well at his tracks, and Sentosa is one of them. I believe Sergio will get himself in the mix this week. Hopefully the third time is a charm in Singapore.

Paul Casey +3300 (FanDuel)

Paul Casey is in the midst of one of his best seasons in the five years or so. The results recently have been up and down, but he’s shown that when he’s on a golf course that suits his game, he’s amongst the contenders.

This season, Casey has finishes of T5 (LIV Las Vegas), T2 (LIV Hong Kong), and a 6th at the Singapore Classic on the DP World Tour. At his best, the Englishman is one of the best long iron players in the world, which makes him a strong fit for Sentosa. Despite being in poor form last season, he was able to fire a Sunday 63, which shows he can low here at the course.

It’s been three years since Casey has won a tournament (Omega Dubai Desert Classic in 2021), but he’s been one of the top players on LIV this season and I think he can get it done at some point this season.

Mito Pereira +5000 (Bet365)

Since Mito Pereira’s unfortunate demise at the 2022 PGA Championship, he’s been extremely inconsistent. However, over the past few months, the Chilean has played well on the International Series as well as his most recent LIV start. Mito finished 8th at LIV Adelaide, which was his best LIV finish this season.

Last year, Pereira finished 5th at LIV Singapore, shooting fantastic rounds of 67-66-66. It makes sense why Mito would like Sentosa, as preeminent ball strikers tend to rise to the challenge of the golf course. He’s a great long iron player who is long and straight off the tee.

Mito has some experience playing in Asia and is one of the most talented players on LIV who’s yet to get in the winner’s circle. I have questions about whether or not he can come through once in contention, but if he gets there, I’m happy to roll the dice.

Andy Ogletree +15000 (DraftKings)

Andy Ogletree is a player I expected to have a strong 2024 but struggled early in his first full season on LIV. After failing to crack the top-25 in any LIV event this year, the former U.S. Amateur champion finally figured things out, finished in a tie for 3rd at LIV Adelaide.

Ogletree should be incredible comfortable playing in Singapore. He won the International Series Qatar last year and finished T3 at the International Series Singapore. The 26-year-old was arguably the best player on the Asian Tour in 2023 and has been fantastic in the continent over the past 18 months.

If Ogletree has indeed found form, he looks to be an amazing value at triple-digit odds.

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Lessons from the worst golf instructor in America

Published

4 days ago

Apr 30, 2024

Brendan Ryan

In Tampa, there is a golf course that boasts carts that do not work, a water range, and a group of players none of which have any chance to break 80. The course is overseen by a staff of crusty men who have succeeded at nothing in life but ending up at the worst-run course in America. However, this place is no failure. With several other local courses going out of business — and boasting outstanding greens — the place is booked full.

While I came for the great greens, I stayed to watch our resident instructor; a poor-tempered, method teacher who caters to the hopeless. At first, it was simply hilarious. However, after months of listening and watching, something clicked. I realized I had a front-row seat to the worst golf instructor in America.

Here are some of my key takeaways.

Method Teacher

It is widely accepted that there are three types of golf instructors: system teachers, non-system teachers, and method teachers. Method teachers prescribe the same antidote for each student based on a preamble which teachers can learn in a couple day certification.

Method teaching allows anyone to be certified. This process caters to the lowest caliber instructor, creating the illusion of competency. This empowers these underqualified instructors with the moniker of “certified” to prey on the innocent and uninformed.

The Cult of Stack and Jilt

The Stack and Tilt website proudly boasts, “A golfer swings his hands inward in the backswing as opposed to straight back to 1) create power, similar to a field goal kicker moving his leg in an arc and 2) to promote a swing that is in-to-out, which produces a draw (and eliminates a slice).”

Now, let me tell you something, there is this law of the universe which says “energy can either be created or destroyed,” so either these guys are defying physics or they have no idea what they are taking about. Further, the idea that the first move of the backswing determines impact is conjecture with a splash of utter fantasy.

These are the pontifications of a method — a set of prescriptions applied to everyone with the hope of some success through the placebo effect. It is one thing for a naive student to believe, for a golf instructor to drink and then dispel this Kool-Aid is malpractice.

Fooled by Randomness

In flipping a coin, or even a March Madness bet, there is a 50-50 chance of success. In golf, especially for new players, results are asymmetric. Simply put: Anything can happen. The problem is that when bad instructors work with high handicappers, each and every shot gets its own diagnosis and prescription. Soon the student is overwhelmed.

Now here’s the sinister thing: The overwhelming information is by design. In this case, the coach is not trying to make you better, they are trying to make you reliant on them for information. A quasi Stockholm syndrome of codependency.

Practice

One of the most important scientists of the 20th century was Ivan Pavlov. As you might recall, he found that animals, including humans, could be conditioned into biological responses. In golf, the idea of practice has made millions of hackers salivate that they are one lesson or practice session from “the secret.”

Sunk Cost

The idea for the worst golf instructor is to create control and dependency so that clients ignore the sunk cost of not getting better. Instead, they are held hostage by the idea that they are one lesson or tip away from unlocking their potential.

Cliches

Cliches have the effect of terminating thoughts. However, they are the weapon of choice for this instructor. Add some hyperbole and students actually get no information. As a result, these players couldn’t play golf. When they did, they had no real scheme. With no idea what they are doing, they would descend into a spiral of no idea what to do, bad results, lower confidence, and running back to the lesson tee from more cliches.

The fact is that poor instruction is about conditioning players to become reliant members of your cult. To take away autonomy. To use practice as a form of control. To sell more golf lessons not by making people better but through the guise that without the teacher, the student can never reach their full potential. All under the umbrella of being “certified” (in a 2-day course!) and a melee of cliches.

This of course is not just happening at my muni but is a systemic problem around the country and around the world, the consequences of which are giving people a great reason to stop playing golf. But hey, at least it’s selling a lot of golf balls…

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

Published

2 weeks ago

Apr 22, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

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